Qatar’s Wealth Fund Plans $500 Billion US Push Over Next Decade

Economic

Summary:

During his first 15 years at Qatar Investment Authority, Mohammed Al Sowaidi helped establish its US presence and scout opportunities.

During his first 15 years at Qatar Investment Authority, Mohammed Al Sowaidi helped establish its US presence and scout opportunities. Now, as head of the $524 billion state-backed entity, he’s pledging to invest an amount nearly equal to the fund’s current size, as part of a major commitment by the Gulf nation.

QIA plans to invest an additional $500 billion in the US over the next decade, Al Sowaidi said in an interview in Doha. The sweeping new outlays will target areas traditionally favored by the fund — such as artificial intelligence, data centers and health care — while also aligning with President Donald Trump’s agenda to reindustrialize the US, he said.

The $500 billion accounts for nearly half of the total $1.2 trillion economic pledge by Qatar during Trump’s visit this week.

“We’re not shifting away from other markets — we’re increasing our exposure to the US,” Al Sowaidi said. The current US policy environment offers a “more promising direction” for long-term capital, he said.

To be sure, the QIA is not alone in pursuing an aggressive, US-focused investment strategy among Middle East funds. Saudi Arabia’s Public Investment Fund, state-owned entities in the United Arab Emirates, and the Kuwait Investment Authority are also looking to deploy billions across similar sectors — raising the likelihood of competition for the same deals and the risk of overpaying for assets.

Al Sowaidi took over as the chief executive officer last year during a pivotal moment for the fund, with an expansion of the country’s gas projects expected to funnel billions of dollars into its coffers. At the same time, Doha is no longer hamstrung by outlays for large projects like the 2022 FIFA World Cup, which is estimated to have cost $300 billion.

With fresh inflows expected, Al Sowaidi plans to steer the fund toward providing capital to large companies, taking stakes in listed businesses and prioritizing bigger deals.

That marks a departure from the QIA’s recent focus on smaller venture capital deals. Still, Al Sowaidi said the move isn’t “an actual strategic shift or pivot,” but rather a “further evolution” of the fund’s approach to keep pace with rapid global change.

The QIA is already the world’s eighth-largest sovereign wealth fund and owns a string of high-profile assets including London’s Harrods department store and the Shard skyscraper. But after years of relatively quiet dealmaking, Al Sowaidi’s plans show the fund is ready to be back in the spotlight.

Al Sowaidi joined the QIA in 2010, when it was led by Sheikh Hamad bin Jassim bin Jaber Al Thani, a former prime minister who’s widely regarded as among the most high-profile investors in the Middle East. Sheikh Hamad was ultimately replaced at the QIA by Ahmed Al-Sayed, who helped orchestrate large deals including Glencore Plc’s $29 billion takeover of Xstrata Plc.

Al Sowaidi, for his part, spent most of his early years at the fund in the Americas, where he helped establish a US office and eventually worked his way up to become chief investment officer for the region.

He holds bachelor’s degrees in finance and statistics from the University of Missouri, and has held roles including as the head of private equity funds and president of the QIA Advisory office in New York. The QIA was then known for its work in snapping up high-profile stakes in the likes of Barclays Plc and Credit Suisse.

Qatar is already one of the world’s richest nations and among the top exporters of liquefied natural gas. But the government’s plans to significantly expand that output is set to add more than $30 billion a year to state revenues.

Some of this cash will be funneled into the QIA. The research consultancy Global SWF recently projected the QIA’s total assets will surge to $905 billion by 2030, meaning it would be vaulted into the ranks of other high-profile investors across the region like Saudi Arabia’s PIF and the Abu Dhabi Investment Authority.

The QIA is already positioning itself to prepare for significant outlays.

Al Sowaidi said the fund typically takes minority stakes in successful businesses, with deal size varying widely by asset class. “In public equity, we can go big,” he said.

“In private equity, we’re capable of multibillion-dollar transactions, but we can also stay nimble — especially in sectors like technology or health care.”

Such a move would be welcome news for the private equity industry. For years, high interest rates have put a damper on global dealmaking. When private equity firms aren’t able to sell their portfolio companies at a healthy pace, they can’t return capital to their investors. Then that money can’t be recycled into new funds.

The QIA’s efforts in that space would help get fundraising moving for the industry again — and make up for the pullback that’s expected from the $925 billion PIF, which has started to increasingly focus on domestic investments.

Already, financial firms are eager for the chance to work more closely with the QIA. Eduardo Saverin’s B Capital, for instance, unveiled plans to set up offices in Qatar earlier this year. Days later, BlackRock Inc.’s Global Infrastructure Partners, said it would set up in Doha too.

Those outside Doha will get more insight into Al Sowaidi’s thinking next week, when he speaks at the annual Qatar Economic Forum, where top finance executives from around the world and key names from Trump’s orbit — including his son Eric and Tesla Inc.’s Elon Musk — are scheduled to speak.

Doha had until recently largely stayed away from the race for regional financial dominance, even as a flurry of Wall Street firms announced plans to set up their regional headquarters in Riyadh and hedge funds flocked to Abu Dhabi.

But Al Sowaidi’s plans show the gas-rich nation is intensifying efforts to catch up.

Source: Bloomberg Europe

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Adam

Cryptocurrency

Top cryptocurrencies experienced a pullback on Thursday, amid signs investors are taking profits off the table after a recent rally.

Bitcoin touched lows of $101,500 at one point, indicating a return to all-time highs might not be as imminent as some bulls hoped.

Sell-offs were more pronounced among major altcoins. Ethereum has fallen by 3% over the past 24 hours—with XRP, Solana and Dogecoin all shedding about 5%.

Risk appetite also appears to be cooling in the stock market too, with the Federal Reserve set to cut interest rates less frequently in 2025 than first thought.

BRN's lead research analyst Valentin Fournier argues healthy inflows into BTC and ETH ETFs "provides a solid foundation for long-term support."

Describing Thursday's declines as a "modest pullback," he wrote: "While this appears to be a healthy correction, altcoins, after leading the rally, are showing more volatility.

"We believe Bitcoin's $100k level will serve as a critical support zone for an extended accumulation phase," Fournier wrote.

YouHodler's chief of markets Ruslan Lienkha told Decrypt that upward momentum is moderating now that tariff negotiations have concluded, with short-term traders deciding to lock in profits across the equity markets.

"This shift in sentiment has spilled over into riskier assets, including Bitcoin. As a result, the current pullback appears to be a correction within a broader medium-term uptrend," he added.

Going forward, Lienkha believes "ongoing global economic uncertainty and persistently high interest rates in the U.S. may act as headwinds" for crypto, and could limit upside potential.

Newhedge measures Bitcoin's correlation with the S&P 500 on a scale of -1 to 1. While -1 indicates there's no connection between these markets, a score closer to 1 suggests they rise and fall in tandem with one another.

With a current reading of 0.86, continued strength for BTC may hinge upon how things unfold on Wall Street.

Source :decrypt

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Thomas

Economic

The European Union is revising its proposals for a potential trade deal with the US as the two sides move to accelerate serious negotiations, even though the Trump administration continues to provide little clarity and make demands that negotiators see as unrealistic, according to people familiar with the matter.

The new EU proposal would provide more details on ways to lower trade and non-tariff barriers, as well as boost European investments within the US and purchases of US goods, including liquefied natural gas and semiconductors for use in artificial intelligence, said the people, who asked for anonymity to discuss sensitive talks.

Despite the slow progress in direct talks, European trade ministers said the EU and US are both moving to speed up the pace of negotiations after the US reached temporary trade truces with the UK and China.

Maros Sefcovic, the EU commissioner for trade and economic security, said he spoke by phone with US Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick on Wednesday, with further meetings between the two planned.

“We had a good phone conversation — one of many,” Sefcovic said at a press conference in Brussels, following a meeting of EU trade ministers. “We agreed that we would accelerate our work.”

EU officials said the Trump administration’s willingness to strike a deal with the UK and significantly pull down its tariffs on China temporarily are a positive sign, though they emphasized they’re prepared to move forward with retaliatory levies against the US if talks fail.

The recent deal with the UK, however, leaves in a place a new baseline tariff of 10% and potentially sectoral duties, which may not be acceptable for many EU nations.

The Swedish minister for development cooperation and foreign trade, Benjamin Dousa, said that “if the UK-US deal is what Europe gets then the US can expect countermeasures from our side,” he said. “We will not be happy with that kind of deal.”

The US has welcomed some of the options proposed by the bloc as part of a potential deal, but EU officials remain unclear about what exactly US President Donald Trump is looking for, according to people familiar with the matter. One potential stumbling block is Trump’s charge that the EU’s value-added tax is a non-tariff barrier, since EU officials are adamant that it isn’t and that the bloc’s autonomy over tax and regulations isn’t negotiable.

Source: Yahoo Finance

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James Whitman

Political

US President Donald Trump says he’s ready to ease sanctions on Syria. He won’t be able to do it quickly.

The American leader sat down with Syrian counterpart Ahmed Al-Sharaa in Riyadh on Wednesday — the first meeting between heads of the two countries in 25 years — after unexpectedly saying he would drop all sanctions against the war-ravaged country and even look to normalize relations.

The move was seen as a highlight of Trump’s trip to the Arabian Peninsula this week, but actual implementation will be a protracted and thorny challenge. The White House also made clear it’s not a one-way street, saying the president urged Sharaa to take steps in return, including helping to fight terrorism and agreeing ties with Israel.

US Secretary of State Marco Rubio will have to wade through layers of strict restrictions imposed on Syria over the past 45 years — covering everything from finance to energy — and met his counterpart Asaad Al-Shaibani on Thursday in Turkey.

“President Trump has made clear his cessation of sanctions is meant to help stabilize and move Syria toward peace,” National Security Council spokesman James Hewitt said in a statement. “The State Department prepared for this moment by engaging across the U.S. government and our foreign partners since the fall of the Assad regime to review options and timing on sanctions relief.”

Trump can lift sanctions issued by executive order but some will need a vote in Congress to be repealed, according to Caroline Rose, a Syria expert and research director at the Washington-based New Lines Institute.

“The road ahead with sanctions relief will be long and complicated,” she said. “There are still many sceptics to Syria normalization and sanctions relief, particularly among Republican Party members.”

Another issue is that Sharaa, Shaibani and many other members of the present Syrian government are former commanders of an Al-Qaeda-affiliated group implicated by the United Nations Security Council in war atrocities. Sharaa, who previously ran an Islamist protostate in northwest Syria, overthrew long-time former President Bashar Al-Assad in December after a rebel offensive.

“There’s a lot that needs to be done, including by the Syrian administration,” Saudi Arabia’s Foreign Minister Faisal bin Farhan told reporters Wednesday. “Syria won’t be alone — the kingdom and the rest of our international partners will be at the forefront of those supporting this effort and economic rebirth.”

One immediate boost for Sharaa’s government will come from supporter Qatar, which has US backing to begin dispersing almost $30 million a month for civil servant salaries, according to two people involved in finalizing the arrangement and two others with knowledge of the matter.

That will provide at least a start for the new Syrian administration, which is faced with an economy devastated by more than a decade of war and in need of as much as $400 billion for rebuilding costs, according to the Carnegie Endowment for International peace.

“We welcome all investors: children of the nation inside and outside, our Arab and Turkish brothers and friends from around the world,” Sharaa said in a speech on Wednesday night.

Supporters of Sharaa inside and out of Syria, including Saudi Arabia, see Trump’s move as a brave decision that isolates extremists within the Syrian leader’s Islamist-dominated administration. The move also excludes Iran, Assad’s main patron, and helps ensure China doesn’t make significant inroads.

Investment opportunities will instead fall to regional powers friendly to the US, like Saudi Arabia, Turkey and the United Arab Emirates.

“The main concern in the business community has been that we don’t want to be seen working with what has been designated as a terrorist government by the West,” said Majd Abbar, a Dubai-based Syrian-American information-technology executive, who has lobbied officials in Washington to lift sanctions and met with Sharaa multiple times.

“Now that these sanctions will be lifted, everyone is going to jump on board to invest in Syria,” he said. “It’s practically a white canvas — there’s nothing there.”

Syria, which is technically still at war with Israel, has been under myriad US sanctions since its 1979 designation by Washington as a state sponsor of terrorism.

Relations thawed in the 1990s when Damascus joined the US-led coalition that ousted Saddam Hussein from Kuwait and engaged in peace talks with Israel. But after replacing his father in 2000, Assad deepened ties with Iran and was accused by the US of supporting the insurgency in Iraq following the 2003 US-led invasion.

That triggered additional sanctions by Washington, and further rounds followed from 2011 when Assad mounted a brutal crackdown against his opponents, spawning a decade-long conflict that killed almost 500,000 people and displaced millions more. Just before his toppling in December, the US renewed the 2019 Caesar Syria Civilian Protection Act, which penalizes anyone that does business with the Syrian government except for exempted humanitarian reasons.

Before Trump’s announcement, many in his administration, such as Sebastian Gorka, were strongly opposed to removing sanctions or dealing with Sharaa, seeing him as a committed jihadist who is masking his real intentions. The State Department had demanded Sharaa’s government show progress on a number of critical issues as a precondition for the lifting of sanctions.

At their meeting in Riyadh, Trump urged Sharaa to take certain steps, according to a White House readout of the conversation, which was attended by Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman. Those include the deportation of Palestinian militants and other foreign fighters from Syria, helping with the effort to prevent the resurgence of Islamic State and normalizing relations with Israel.

Israel was quick to intervene militarily after Assad’s ouster, launching a series of airstrikes on arms-storage sites and extending its occupied land in Syria’s southwest. It also stepped in to defend the Druze community after violent clashes between the minority group and government forces.

The country’s attitude toward Syria “is more sceptical, we are approaching matters in a slower manner,” Danny Danon, Israel’s ambassador to the United Nations, told Army Radio on Thursday. “We want to see that there really is stability in Syria, that this regime doesn’t only talk, it also takes action.”

Source: Bloomberg Europe

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Adam

Economic

China–U.S. Trade War

Wall Street dipped on Thursday as elation from the U.S.-China tariff truce faded for major indexes, while UnitedHealth's stock took a pummeling after a report of a DOJ fraud inquiry into the insurer.

UnitedHealth Group plunged 16% to its lowest level since April 2020.

The Wall Street Journal reported that the U.S. Department of Justice was conducting a criminal investigation into the company for possible Medicare fraud. However, the health insurer said it had not been informed of a criminal probe by federal prosecutors.

Walmart will have to start raising prices later this month due to the high cost of tariffs, executives said, even as the retail giant's U.S. comparable sales surpassed expectations in the first quarter. Its shares were down 4.8%

At 09:42 a.m., the Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 128.62 points, or 0.31%, to 41,922.44, the S&P 500 lost 19.46 points, or 0.33%, to 5,873.03, and the Nasdaq Composite lost 123.27 points, or 0.64%, to 19,023.53.

Speaking on the day, U.S. Federal Reserve chair Jerome Powell said central bank officials felt they needed to reconsider the key elements around jobs as well as inflation in their current monetary policy approach.

U.S.

retail sales

growth slowed in April, while a Labor Department report showed the producer price index for final demand fell 0.5% for the same month, compared to an expectation of a 0.2% rise.

On an annual basis, producer prices came in at 2.4% versus an estimate of 2.5%.

"There will be a hump and pick up in prices, but until we see how big that is and how lasting that is, the Fed should be able to remain patient," said Jan Nevruzi, U.S. rates strategist at TD Securities.

The data dump follows a relatively tame consumer price reading earlier this week, indicating that consumer prices rebounded moderately last month.

In results-driven moves, Cisco Systems gained 2.9% after the networking-equipment maker raised its annual forecasts and named Mark Patterson its new CFO.

Only four out of the 11 S&P 500 sectors were trading in the green.

The energy sector fell the most, as oil prices slid around 3% on expectations of a U.S.-Iran nuclear deal that could result in sanctions easing.

Stocks have been see-sawing this week as equities jumped on Monday and Tuesday following a temporary ceasefire in the U.S.-China tariff war. The gains were enough to drag the S&P out of the red for the year - its first positive showing since late February - although it is still about 4% shy of its record highs.

Many megacap and growth stocks pulled back, with Nvidia slipping 1.2%, while Tesla shed 2.8%.

Foot Locker, soared 83.6% after rival Dick's Sporting Goods agreed to buy the footwear retailer for $2.4 billion.

Advancing issues outnumbered decliners by a 1.01-to-1 ratio on the NYSE, while declining issues outnumbered advancers by a 1.28-to-1 ratio on the Nasdaq.

The S&P 500 posted four new 52-week highs and three new lows, while the Nasdaq Composite recorded 17 new highs and 51 new lows.

Source: marketscreener

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Warren Takunda

Cryptocurrency

Key takeaways:

Bitcoin’s price is retracing, but strong ETF inflows, high network activity and whale accumulation suggest BTC is on track to $140,000.

Spot Bitcoin ETFs saw $2.9 billion in net inflows in two weeks, mirroring past rallies.

Declining exchange balances and a rising transaction volume Z-score suggest increasing overall demand.

Bitcoin price was down 1.4% over the last 24 hours. It traded 6% below its all-time high of $109,000, reached on Jan. 20. Nevertheless, several fundamental, onchain and technical metrics suggest that Bitcoin’s upside is not over.

Spot Bitcoin ETF inflows mirror past BTC rallies

Bitcoin’s latest recovery was accompanied by strong investor appetite for spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs), which recorded $2.9 billion in net inflows over the last two weeks.

The chart below shows that after the launch of the US-based spot Bitcoin ETFs in January 2024, these investment products saw net inflows of about $8.5 billion between Feb. 13, 2024, and March 13, 2024, peaking at a record single-day inflow of $1.045 billion on March 12, 2024. 6 Signs Predicting $140K as Bitcoin's Next Price Top_1

6 Signs Predicting $140K as Bitcoin's Next Price Top_1

Spot Bitcoin ETF flows. Source: Glassnode

Similarly, between Nov. 6, 2024, and Dec. 16, 2024, cumulative daily inflows hit $5.7 billion, aligning with Bitcoin’s 60% rally from $67,000 to $108,000 over the same period.

If ETF inflows continue, Bitcoin is likely to resume its uptrend toward new all-time highs.

Bitcoin market volatility index: risk-on

Increased inflows into spot Bitcoin ETFs signal high risk-on sentiment, as evidenced by a drop in the CBOE Volatility Index (VIX), which measures 30-day market volatility expectations.

Bitcoin network economist Timothy Peterson highlighted that the VIX index has dropped substantially to 18 from 55 over the past 25 trading days.

A VIX score below 18 implied a “risk-on” environment, favoring assets like Bitcoin.

The analyst said:“This will be a 'risk on' environment for the foreseeable future.”

CBOE Volatility Index. Source: Timothy Peterson

Peterson’s model, which has a 95% tracking accuracy, predicted a $135,000 target within the next 100 days if the VIX remains low.

Strong Bitcoin accumulation continues

Reinforcing the risk-on sentiment are Bitcoin whales, who have been increasing their holdings even as the price rallied. Glassnode data shows the Bitcoin Accumulation Trend Score (ATS) at 1 (see chart below), which signifies intense accumulation by large investors

According to Glassnode, the spike in trend score indicates a transition from distribution to accumulation across almost all cohorts. This shift mirrors a similar accumulation pattern observed in October 2024, which preceded Bitcoin’s rise from $67,000 to $108,000, spurred by US President Donald Trump’s election victory. 6 Signs Predicting $140K as Bitcoin's Next Price Top_3

6 Signs Predicting $140K as Bitcoin's Next Price Top_3

Bitcoin accumulation trend score. Source: Glassnode

Additional data from Santiment reveals that addresses holding between 10 BTC and 10,000 BTC have accumulated 83,105 more BTC in the past 30 days.

In a May 13 post on the X social platform, Santiment said,

“With the aggressive accumulation from these large wallets, it may be a matter of time until Bitcoin's coveted $110K all-time high level is breached, particularly after the U.S. and China tariff pause.”

Bitcoin 10-10,000 BTC chart holdings. Source: Santiment

Overall, this is a positive sign as continued accumulation signals bullish sentiment among this cohort of investors.

Declining Bitcoin balance on exchanges

BTC balance on exchanges reached a six-year low of 2.44 million BTC on May 15. According to the chart below, more than 110,000 BTC have been moved off exchanges over the last 30 days.

6 Signs Predicting $140K as Bitcoin's Next Price Top_5

BTC reserve on exchanges. Source: CryptoQuant

Decreasing BTC balances on exchanges means investors could be withdrawing their tokens into self-custody wallets, indicating a lack of intention to sell in anticipation of a future price increase.

Increasing network activity

Bitcoin’s potential to rise is supported by increased network activity, as highlighted by crypto investor Ted Boydston in a May 15 post on X.

The Bitcoin transaction volume Z-score measures the difference between the current transaction volume and the average. It is often used to gauge network activity and market interest.

The chart below shows the metric has risen sharply from the negative zone and is approaching 1. A rising transaction volume Z-score, especially when it approaches or exceeds 1, is historically associated with Bitcoin price rallies.

“This is a good sign for Bitcoin price acceleration,” remarked Boydston, adding:“Bitcoin should be full bull once the Z-score breaches 1.”

Source: Ted Boydston

BTC rounded bottom pattern targets $140K

From a technical perspective, Bitcoin’s price has formed a rounded bottom chart pattern on the daily chart (see below). Bulls are now focused on pushing the price above the neckline of the governing chart pattern at $106,660.

A daily candlestick close above this level would confirm a bullish breakout from the rounded bottom formation, ushering BTC into price discovery with the technical target set at $140,000, or a 37% increase from the current level.

6 Signs Predicting $140K as Bitcoin's Next Price Top_7

BTC/USD daily chart. Source: TradingView

The relative strength index, or RSI, is at 70, and a bullish cross from the SMAs suggests that the market conditions still favor the upside, which can top out at even higher than $140,000.

As Cointelegraph reported, BTC price had broken out of a bull flag in the weekly timeframe, projecting a rally to $150,000.

Source: Cointelegraph

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Adam

Commodity

Oil fell for a second day after President Donald Trump said the US and Iran are getting closer to a deal regarding Tehran’s nuclear program, a move that could unleash more supplies onto a market that is rapidly approaching a glut.

Brent was trading around $64 a barrel after losing as much as 4% in London. US crude futures also slid.

If all sanctions on Iran are lifted, about 300,000 to 400,000 barrels a day of additional crude could hit global markets, analysts estimated. The development adds further gloom to a market that is already swimming in additional supplies after OPEC+ revived output at a faster pace than anticipated and trade talks between the US and major consuming nations cloud the demand outlook.

“I think we’re getting close to maybe doing a deal,” Trump told reporters in Doha. But prices found some support because Trump’s latest rhetoric was more optimistic than that of Iran. Its lead negotiator, Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi, on Wednesday urged the US to come to the next round of Oman-mediated talks with a “more realistic” approach. The date and location for those is yet to be decided.

“In less than 24 hours, the narrative has shifted from the US imposing new sanctions on Iran to growing speculation that a diplomatic breakthrough may be within reach,” said Arne Lohmann Rasmussen, chief analyst at A/S Global Risk Management.

“If a deal is concluded, it would increase the likelihood of a significant oversupply later this year, especially when combined with the planned production increases from OPEC+,” he said.

Brent has averaged about $63 a barrel so far this month, the lowest price since 2021. The pullback will help soothe inflationary pressures in consuming economies but hits the coffers of major producers.

US shale companies have already reined in capital spending plans, and Saudi Arabia has lifted borrowing levels as the low prices show signs of biting.

Adding to the negative sentiment, the International Energy Agency said it expects global consumption growth to slow for the rest of this year as trade uncertainty puts pressure on demand.

“We’re seeing clear signs that the global economy is slowing and oil demand growth is slowing,” Toril Bosoni, head of the IEA’s oil markets division, said in a Bloomberg Television interview with Francine Lacqua.

Oil touched a four-year low during the depths of the trade tumult before mounting its biggest four-day gain since October after a détente was announced this week.

Prices remain down by about 13% this year thanks to the twin hit of trade uncertainties and faster-than-expected output increases by the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and its allies.