Polymarket Bets On Mark Carney Win As Canadians Head To The Polls

Cryptocurrency

Political

Summary:

Crypto users betting on the outcome of the snap election to determine the next Prime Minister of Canada appear to be favoring a Liberal Party victory as residents head to cast their votes.

As of April 28, cryptocurrency betting platform Polymarket gave current Canadian Prime Minister and Liberal Party candidate Mark Carney a 79% chance of defeating Conservative Party candidate Pierre Poilievre in the race for the country's next PM. Data from the platform showed users had poured more than $75 million into bets surrounding the race, predicting a Poilievre or Carney victory.

Polymarket chances favor the Liberal Party's Mark Carney over the Conservative Party's Pierre Poilievre to be the next Canadian Prime Minister.

The odds suggested by the platform, as well as those from many polls, show a nearly complete reversal of fortunes between the two candidates after former Prime Minister Justin Trudeau resigned in January. Trudeau and, by association, many in the Liberal Party, faced criticism over the handling of Canada's housing crisis and questions about how he would face US President Donald Trump's then-proposed tariffs.

Following Trudeau's resignation, Trump stepped up rhetoric disparaging Canada, repeatedly referring to the country as the US's “51st state” and Trudeau as its “governor.” The US President also imposed a 25% tariff on goods imported from Canada in March. The policies seem to have led to increasing anti-Trump sentiment in Canada, with many residents booing the US national anthem at hockey games and making comparisons between the president and Poilievre.

Source: CryptoSlate

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Adam

Commodity

Futures Slip as Traders Eye Global Economic Signals

Daily Light Crude Oil Futures

Light crude oil futures are trading slightly lower Monday, holding just below a critical pivot level at $63.06. Price action suggests a downside bias is forming, with the next potential support target at $59.67 if selling pressure intensifies. Resistance stands near last week’s high of $64.87, followed by the 50-day moving average at $66.05. The technical setup points to cautious sentiment, with the market at risk of deeper retracements if external pressures persist.

Economic Uncertainty and OPEC+ Supply Concerns Weigh on Oil

Oil markets today are grappling with broad macro uncertainty. Conflicting signals on U.S.-China trade negotiations continue to cloud the outlook for global growth and fuel demand. Analysts highlight the trade war’s dominant role over nuclear talks with Iran or internal OPEC+ tensions. Investors remain sensitive to headlines, with any sign of thawing trade relations seen as a potential catalyst for buying interest. Meanwhile, expectations that OPEC+ could accelerate production hikes at its upcoming May 5 meeting are adding to supply-side pressure.

China’s Crude Imports Surge, But Demand Questions Remain

Fresh data shows China’s crude surplus rose sharply in March, reaching 1.74 million barrels per day—the highest in nearly three years. This came despite a 0.4% year-over-year increase in refinery processing rates, supported by record domestic production. Imports surged 5% year-over-year, led by Iranian and Russian barrels, as Chinese refiners stocked up ahead of anticipated U.S. sanctions. However, questions remain whether this March strength reflects sustainable demand growth or temporary stockpiling against falling global prices.

Political Risk Grows With Iranian Tensions

Adding to the market’s geopolitical risks, a deadly explosion at Iran’s Bandar Abbas port over the weekend further stoked uncertainty. While nuclear talks between Iran and the U.S. continue, Iranian officials expressed doubt over reaching a resolution. Any escalation in Middle East tensions could quickly ripple through oil markets, particularly if supply chains are disrupted.

Market Forecast

Given technical weakness under key moving averages, ongoing trade war tensions, and signs of elevated Chinese stockpiling rather than organic demand growth, the short-term outlook for oil remains bearish. Traders should monitor developments around U.S.-China talks, OPEC+ decisions, and Middle East stability for potential catalysts.

Source: fxempire

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Devin

Economic

A gauge that tracks emerging stocks gained 0.55% and is trading near the highest level since the day after President Donald Trump presented his reciprocal tariffs. The MSCI Index leaped 3.4% last week.

The upward movement “seems to be driven by some optimism regarding a potential de-escalation of Trump’s tariffs,” said Gordian Kemen, head of emerging markets sovereign strategy at Standard Chartered.

Monday’s gains also put the EM stocks index above its 200-day moving average. If the gauge ends April with an advance, that would mark a gain in each of the first four months of a year — a feat last achieved in 2019. Earnings estimates for the gauge have risen 0.8% this month, the most since August.

For Michael Brown, a senior research strategist at Pepperstone Group Ltd, the recent EM rally has been largely driven by the broad “sell America” trade amid policy uncertainty from Trump. Those countries that reach trade deals with the US — which result in a permanent lowering of tariffs — are likely to outperform peers.

Meanwhile, in the foreign exchange market, currencies are trading mixed, with the MSCI currency index up just 0.1%. The South African rand and Argentina’s peso led the gains in the emerging basket, while the Chilean peso lagged its peers.

Earlier, assets in Colombia dropped after the International Monetary Fund paused access to an $8.1 billion flexible credit line. The country’s peso plunged as much as 0.8% while its dollar bonds fell across the curve, with notes maturing in 2035 down 1 cent to about 100 cents on the dollar

Trade Watch

Hopes have grown that the worst of the US tariff threat may be passing after Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said last week that the US and South Korea could reach an “agreement of understanding” on trade as soon as this week. Bessent said Sunday that negotiations with some trading partners “are moving along very well, especially with the Asian countries.”

Traders this week will also be watching for key US data including growth and a gauge of inflation to assess if Trump’s trade war has begun to affect the economy. Meanwhile, Chinese officials Monday reiterated a pledge to aid growth ahead of the release of factory activity data later this week.

Source: Yahoo Finance

To stay updated on all economic events of today, please check out our Economic calendar

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Adam

Cryptocurrency

Crypto-related investment products recorded $3.4 billion in inflows last week, marking the most significant weekly inflow since mid-December 2024 and the third-highest on record, according to CoinShares‘ latest report.

James Butterfill, Head of Research at CoinShares, linked the surge to growing concerns about the weakening US dollar and fears over tariff-related impacts on corporate earnings.

He noted that this inflow shows investors increasingly turn to digital assets as safe-haven options amid global economic uncertainty.

US Bitcoin products pull over $3 billion in inflow

According to CoinShares, Bitcoin investment products accounted for nearly 94% of last week’s total inflows.

This is evidenced by the fact that US-based spot Bitcoin exchange-traded fund (ETF) products registered their strongest week since Donald Trump returned to the White House in January.

Collectively, Bitcoin ETFs attracted over $3 billion in inflows, with BlackRock’s IBIT leading the way by securing more than half of the new funds.

Record $3.2 billion inflows into Bitcoin funds signal new safe-haven status_1

Crypto Investment Products Flows

Meanwhile, the wave of new investments pushed the total assets under management for Bitcoin-relayed products to $132 billion, a milestone not seen since February 2025.

Market analysts suggest that the inflow reflects Bitcoin’s growing independence from traditional risk assets like US equities, and gold has strengthened its appeal as a safe-haven asset.

Reflecting this momentum, Bitcoin’s price surged by over 8% last week to reach $94,682 at press time, according to data from CryptoSlate.

Ethereum reverses negative trend

Ethereum also reversed its recent trend of outflows, attracting $183 million in new investments. This marks the end of an eight-week streak of negative sentiment that significantly impacted the second-largest crypto asset by market cap.

Despite this new capital inflow, Ethereum’s price remains below the critical $2,000 threshold. ETH is trading at around $1,806 as of press time, up 10% over the past week.

Record $3.2 billion inflows into Bitcoin funds signal new safe-haven status_2

Crypto Investment Flows

Other altcoins recorded smaller yet notable inflows. XRP and Sui saw $31.6 million and $20.7 million in new investments, respectively.

However, not all assets benefited from the positive market momentum. Solana was the only major altcoin to experience an outflow, losing $5.7 million in investments during the period.

Nonetheless, the broader inflow trend reflects strengthening investor confidence in digital assets, even as traditional markets face uncertainty.

Source: cryptoslate

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Fiona Harper

Cryptocurrency

Economic

As of the time this article was prepared, Bitcoin's value had declined to $94,200, initiating a selling wave with the opening of the U.S. market. For Bitcoin to continue its upward trend, it must maintain a support level around $93,200. What are the latest predictions from crypto experts? What can enthusiasts expect?

Bitcoin (BTC) Insights

Sherpa noted in today's assessment that Bitcoin is preparing for a new attempt at $109,800. Following a prolonged accumulation phase, BTC experienced a bullish breakout but has not yet returned to the anticipated peak region. After testing its all-time high, analysts expect a local peak and a setback to $100,000, anticipating that this will pave the way for even higher peaks.

However, as May approaches, the traditional “sell in May and go away” mentality could dominate the market. This suggests that buyers may become less enthusiastic, leading to lackluster movements due to weakened trading volumes.

Should there be an exception, the expectations for continued interest rate cuts by the Fed in June could inject vigor into the crypto market.

TraderSZ recently shared a graph suggesting that by the end of the year, BTC prices should peak around $144,221 according to technical indicators.

Fartcoin and PEPE Predictions

Altcoin investors are still facing challenges. The inability of Bitcoin to surpass the pivotal six-figure zone above $94,000 remains discouraging. While recent tariff-related statements have softened, tangible agreements are necessary, and conflicting reports about discussions with China need to cease.

The Treasury Secretary stated that we would see the first trade agreement by next week. If this occurs, the anticipated support for cryptocurrencies could materialize. Analyst Sherpa, known for his insights on altcoins, shared a graph for his favored altcoin, Fartcoin, noting potential fluctuations.

“It wouldn't be surprising to see some pullback here, but remember that the warming weather will lead prices up. There are three scenarios, all largely depending on BTC. I believe this is simply ongoing.”

In the analysis of PEPE Coin, the expert indicates that the long period of BTC suppressing altcoins is nearing its end, signaling that the time has come for a shift.

Source: CryptoSlate

To stay updated on all economic events of today, please check out our Economic calendar

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Adam

Economic

The Dow Jones Industrial Average and other major stock indexes traded mixed Monday, as Wall Street was in danger of snapping a four-day winning streak. In stocks, Tesla (TSLA) looked to continue its rally, while Nvidia (NVDA) fell sharply on reports of a new artificial intelligence chip out of China.

After the opening bell, the Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 0.5%. The S&P 500 moved up 0.3%, as the tech-heavy Nasdaq composite gained 0.2% in morning trading.

The 10-year Treasury yield ticked higher to 4.29% early Monday. Meanwhile, oil prices dropped, as West Texas Intermediate futures traded near $62.90 per barrel.

Among exchange traded funds, the Invesco QQQ Trust (QQQ) inched up, while the SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY) moved up 0.3% after the open.

Tesla stock climbed another 2.4% in early action Monday, on pace extend last week's sharp gains. Shares bullishly climbed above their 50-day moving average line Friday, and are now within striking distance of their 200-day line, the next resistance level to watch. The Elon-Musk led-company remains nearly 42% off its record high of 488.54, reached on Dec. 18.

Nvidia stock declined 1.6% in morning action Monday after the Wall Street Journal reported that China's Huawei is developing a new AI chip that could replace some of Nvidia's high-end semiconductors. Shares of the AI giant rallied sharply for a fourth-straight session Friday, headed toward their 50-day line, an important area to watch.

Stock Market Today: GDP, Inflation, Payroll Reports Loom

On the economic front this week are the releases of GDP and inflation reports from the U.S. Commerce Department, along with monthly payrolls data from the Labor Department.

Forecasts say first-quarter GDP, out Wednesday, will show growth slowing to a 0.9% annualized rate from 2.4% in the fourth quarter, according to FactSet. The personal income and outlays report will include the core Personal Consumption Expenditures price index, the Fed's primary inflation measure. Economists expect a 0.1% rise, lowering the 12-month inflation rate to 2.6%.

In stocks, Domino's Pizza (DPZ) declined 0.8% Monday after the pizza joint reported earnings early. Shares remain near a 500.55 buy point.

First-quarter earnings season heats up this week, with results from Apple (AAPL), Amazon.com (AMZN), Exxon Mobil (XOM), Chevron (CVX), Caterpillar (CAT), Pfizer (PFE) and Eli Lilly (LLY).

Dow Jones Extends Rally

On Friday, blue chips on the Dow Jones Industrial Average climbed less than 0.1%, or 20 points. The S&P 500 rose 0.7%, while the Nasdaq composite advanced 1.3%.

Due to current market volatility, now is an important time to read IBD's The Big Picture column for how to handle the current market and to track the updated exposure level.

Among the best companies to watch in the current stock market are CrowdStrike (CRWD), MercadoLibre (MELI), Penumbra (PEN), Spotify (SPOT) and TJX (TJX).

Along with Apple and Nvidia, Dow Jones components making notable moves this week were Amazon.com, Microsoft (MSFT) and McDonald's (MCD).

Check out IBD MarketSurge's "Breaking Out Today" list for top growth stocks that are moving above correct buy points. Investor also can find potential breakouts on the "Near Pivot" list. To find additional stock ideas, check IBD Stock Lists like IBD 50, Big Cap 20 and Stocks Near A Buy Zone.

Dow Jones Stocks: McDonald's Nears Buy Point

Shares of Dow Jones component McDonald's edged higher Monday after briefly rallying above an early entry at 319.72 Friday. The stock is forming a flat base with a 326.32 buy point, according to MarketSurge chart analysis.

Outside the Dow, cybersecurity leader and new IBD Leaderboard stock CrowdStrike is adding to breakout gains past a 400.02 buy point in a cup with handle, according to IBD MarketSurge chart analysis. Shares lost 0.2% Monday morning.

E-commerce giant MercadoLibre is just above a 2,202 buy point in a double bottom, according to IBD MarketSurge. MercadoLibre stock dropped 0.3% Monday.

Penumbra also broke out last week, topping a 288.57 double-bottom entry. Its relative strength line is at new highs, triggering the blue dot on the IBD MarketSurge chart. That's a bullish indicator of market leadership. Shares inched up 0.1% early Monday.

Music streaming leader Spotify has topped a double-bottom's 621.20 buy point. Spotify stock was down 1.9% Monday.

Finally, Guidewire is rapidly nearing a 201 buy point in a double bottom, finishing Friday just below the buy trigger. Guidewire stock moved up 1.2% in early morning trades.

Dow Jones Leaders: Amazon, Apple, Microsoft

Magnificent Seven stocks are rebounding from lows as Wall Street reacts to the fallout of President Donald Trump's tariffs. One of them, Dow Jones component Amazon, fell 0.2% early Monday, still leaving the stock squarely below its 200-day line.

IPhone maker Apple moved down a fraction Monday morning. Shares closed Friday at their highest level since early April.

Finally, software giant Microsoft dropped 0.8% Monday. Shares are above their 50-day line for the first time since late January.

Source : investors

To stay updated on all economic events of today, please check out our Economic calendar

Risk Warnings and Disclaimers

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Gerik

Commodity

Technical Fragility Near Key Support Levels

Crude oil prices fell more than 2% last week, driven by a combination of oversupply concerns, weakening demand prospects, and a strengthening U.S. dollar. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude is currently oscillating around $63.06 per barrel, a critical Fibonacci retracement level. Earlier attempts to rebound toward the 50-day Exponential Moving Average at $66.18 were short-lived due to a lack of reinforcing factors, causing prices to retreat. Technical analysis suggests that if current market conditions persist without supportive news, oil prices may slip further, testing the next significant support at $59.67 per barrel.

The close alignment between technical levels and investor sentiment highlights that price movements are closely correlated with confidence shifts. However, a direct cause-effect linkage between technical breakdowns and macroeconomic factors requires broader confirmation through demand-supply data trends.

Oversupply Fears Dominate Market Psychology

Investor sentiment this week remains notably bearish. According to LSEG analysis, the anticipation that OPEC+ could soon increase production—possibly beginning in June—has fueled concerns about market oversupply. A stronger U.S. dollar, which typically makes commodities priced in dollars more expensive for non-U.S. buyers, compounds the downward pressure.

This dynamic reflects a clear relationship where the prospect of expanded production correlates with declining oil prices. While OPEC+ decisions do not immediately alter physical supply, market expectations react swiftly, reinforcing a strong forward-looking correlation between policy announcements and price behavior.

Trade Tensions Resurface, Dampening Demand Outlook

Hopes for an improvement in U.S.-China trade relations were dashed when China's Ministry of Foreign Affairs dismissed reports of ongoing tariff negotiations. Although China continues to exempt some U.S. imports from tariffs, the broader market narrative has shifted toward skepticism about global demand resilience.

The reemergence of trade friction influences oil demand expectations by signaling potential slowdowns in global economic activity. Thus, the relationship between trade disputes and crude oil demand projections remains significantly correlated, although other variables such as domestic stimulus policies could moderate this effect.

Potential Russian Supply Increases Add to Market Strain

Another layer of pressure stems from potential changes in Russian oil supply. Recent progress in U.S.-Russia diplomatic dialogues regarding the Ukraine conflict has raised speculation that sanctions on Russian oil exports could be eased. If realized, this development would inject additional supply into an already fragile market.

Given Russia’s status as a major player within OPEC+, any incremental Russian output would alter global supply balances, likely accelerating downward pressure on prices. This anticipated increase in supply offers a textbook example of an expected causal link: geopolitical relaxation directly leading to increased production and downward price pressure.

Short-Term Outlook: Continued Vulnerability

Absent new supportive catalysts, the short-term outlook for oil prices remains biased toward further declines. The looming increase in OPEC+ output, unresolved trade tensions, and potential easing of sanctions on Russia collectively create a heavy burden on market sentiment. In such a scenario, a retest of the $59.67 support level appears highly probable.

Unless geopolitical developments reverse or demand indicators show unexpected resilience, the downward trend is poised to persist. Short-term fluctuations aside, the structural imbalance between expected supply expansion and fragile demand will likely define price trajectories for the coming months.

Global oil prices are caught in a web of negative pressures stemming from anticipated supply growth, weakened demand forecasts, and a stronger dollar. While technical rebounds are possible, the underlying fundamental forces suggest a continued bearish bias unless market dynamics shift dramatically. Investors and policymakers alike will need to monitor both geopolitical signals and physical market data closely as the second half of 2025 approaches.