Philippines’ Richest Man Faces Scrutiny Over Empty Land’s 25,000% Value Gain

Samantha Luan

Economic

Forex

Political

Summary:

Nothing about the largely empty stretch of land on the outskirts of Manila hints at how it produced a vast overnight fortune. Or a staggering writedown.

Nothing about the largely empty stretch of land on the outskirts of Manila hints at how it produced a vast overnight fortune. Or a staggering writedown.But that’s what unfolded after Manuel Villar, the richest man in the Philippines, moved the land from one part of his corporate group to another and announced its value had shot up to $23.3 billion, from a mere $93 million.The mind-boggling gain, disclosed in March by Villar’s publicly traded Golden MV Holdings Inc., perplexed Manila’s financial community. Auditors balked, regulators halted the stock and opened an investigation, and Golden MV eventually agreed to write down the value by 99%.

“It is entirely ok to have gains moved between entities that are related parties,” said Miguel Angel Minutti-Meza, accounting department chair at the University of Miami’s Herbert Business School. But “it is not clear why this transaction was done and this raises some questions.”Five months on, the stock still isn’t trading. Regulators say Golden MV first must submit audited financial results that include the land. The company has said the audit is underway and that it didn’t break any rules, but it has left investors guessing about the math.

The episode has triggered fresh scrutiny of the business empire that propelled Villar from the slums to the country’s elite, with a fortune valued by the Bloomberg Billionaires Index at $22.9 billion. Golden MV, which develops cemeteries, memorial parks and low-cost housing and has less than $100 million in annual revenue, trades at more than 1,000 times earnings on the Philippine stock exchange. Villar and parties related to him control 89% of the float.The nation’s Securities and Exchange Commission has fined the company and its senior executives and directors for failing to file financial results on time, and says it’s still considering whether to file criminal charges. Golden MV has appealed.

Last week, after inquiries by Bloomberg News, Villar representatives gave a tour of the land. It’s in the heart of Villar City — the billionaire’s signature real estate project that he kicked off two years ago — and it will play a central role in the project, Golden MV said last year.Golden MV, which is being renamed Villar Land, declined to answer Bloomberg’s questions about the deal. The company said in filings in recent months that the gain was recorded and disclosed in good faith and that it’s the “protracted review process of the external auditor” that is delaying its financials, rather than neglect or omission by directors or officers.

In front of the Brittany Hotel on Manila’s southern edge lies a panorama of bushy plains with a number of roads and residential developments. It’s part of the 366 hectares (904 acres) of land at the center of the huge gain and subsequent writedown.The land is part of what the billionaire calls Villar City — a plan to transform a cluster of cities, roughly half the size of Manhattan, into the capital’s “new center of gravity.” The plans include a university, shopping malls, office buildings and enough housing to boost its population to 9 million from about 2 million currently.

It’s Villar’s capstone project in a career largely built on real estate.

Born in Tondo, a neighborhood near the city harbor, Villar sold fish and shrimp in the local market to help pay for school. After graduating with an MBA from the University of the Philippines, he bought trucks to haul sand and gravel to construction sites and then moved into homebuilding.He founded Golden MV in 1982 and grew it into one of the Philippines’ largest chains of cemeteries and memorial parks — a big business in the Catholic country. He also developed affordable housing and later expanded into banking, department stores and supermarkets.

On Sept. 30, 2024, Golden MV paid $93 million to acquire three closely held entities controlled by Villar. Each held bits of the land. The price reflected the entities’ book value — assets minus liabilities — filings show.Six months later, Golden MV released a preview of its annual results. They included the land valued under the “fair value” accounting method, showing it had shot up 25,000% to $23.3 billion. The company booked it as a one-time gain, lifting its 2024 net income to $17.2 billion — a record for the Philippines and beating global giants like Goldman Sachs Group Inc. and Morgan Stanley.

It’s customary for companies to value newly acquired land under the fair value method, said the University of Miami’s Minutti-Meza. The difference between that and book value can be huge, he said, but the figure must be grounded in valuation models and techniques verified by external auditors.“I do not know why, or who advised them,” Wilson Tan, chairman of the Philippine Financial and Sustainability Reporting Standards Council, said of the paper gain booked by Golden MV. From a technical accounting perspective, the gain might be sound, he said, “but from a business perspective?”

Asset valuation firm EValue Phils, Inc. helped Golden MV appraise the land, filings show. But Golden MV’s auditor, a member firm of Grant Thornton International, wouldn’t endorse it. EValue declined to comment, while the auditor didn’t respond to a request for comment.The audit dragged on, preventing Golden MV from filing results for 2024 and the first and second quarter of 2025. The company eventually agreed to value the entities holding the land at-cost, bringing the total value down to $148 million, according to a regulatory filing.

This prompted more questions. Why would a billionaire who’s been in real estate for decades record a huge gain and then reverse course?Some analysts said it may have been a sound move if Villar was looking to issue, sell or pledge shares, or boost Golden MV’s assets to meet loan covenants. But the stock fell after the gain was disclosed, and analysts said banks would be unlikely to take property’s price gain at face value.

Whatever the reason, the restated value of $148 million is more realistic considering market conditions and the area’s potential, said Sheila Lobien, founder and chief executive officer of real estate consultancy Lobien Realty Group in Manila. “Execution will matter more than headline valuations,” she said.Golden MV has yet to assuage both its auditor and the SEC. The regulator in August said the company’s release of unaudited financials showed “a clear disregard for its regulatory obligations” and imposed a $400,000 one-time fine and a smaller daily fee that accumulates until the audited results are submitted.

Golden MV’s appeal is still pending. It hasn’t said when it expects to file its results.“They are basically saying they cannot be penalized because they acted in good faith because they had to resolve the issue with the external auditor,” said SEC chair Francis Lim. “If you start bending rules because personalities involved are powerful already, our market integrity will always be a dream.”

Source: Bloomberg Europe

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Forex

Technical Analysis

Economic

EUR/JPY printed a hammer candlestick yesterday just above a key support level hinting at a potential bullish continuation. The bullish daily candle close also came after three successive days in the red but today has seen price action fail to build on yesterday’s momentum.EUR/JPY has pushed lower testing the lows printed yesterday. What does the pair have in store for market participants in the coming days? Let us take a look.

Japanese Yen: Geopolitical Safety Bid vs. Domestic Instability

The Japanese Yen (JPY) is currently getting stronger, but this strength is based on fear and is likely to be temporary.The yen’s recent gains is likely because market participants are scared by the rising trade tensions between the US and China, which now includes new shipping fees and tariff threats. This global “risk-off” mood, which is also pushing gold prices to records, makes investors put money into the yen because it’s traditionally considered a safe-haven.

However, this rise is unstable due to problems in Japan. The currency’s gains are limited by political uncertainty following the collapse of the ruling party’s coalition. More importantly, the likely new Prime Minister, Sanae Takaichi, has in the past indicated she may interfere with the Bank of Japan’s (BOJ) decision to potentially hike interest rates.Market participants think this political interference will prevent the BOJ from raising rates which is what the yen needs to get stronger. We have already seen rate hike expectations take a significant hit following the election, based on the latest LSEG data.

These developments are weighing on the Yen and may do so over the medium-term, hinting at potential gains for the Euro.

Political Instability Affecting the Euro

The euro’s path right now seems stuck because the Eurozone looks shaky.France, for example, saw its prime minister step down, and the country is wrestling with the biggest budget deficit any Euro‑area nation has had in years. That kind of political mess may mean higher risk for investors.

Because of that the spread between French OATs and German Bunds has started to widen. In other words, lenders ask for a bigger premium to hold French debt. The market reads this as a sign that the whole bloc could be under pressure. So the euro’s ability to ride out outside shocks looks weaker, which may push the EUR/JPY pair lower.

Looking Ahead – Beyond the Data

Over the next ten days or so we have a host of data releases which could stoke volatility in EURJPY. However, many of these data releases will likely lead to short-term moves.The political developments in France and Japan may have a bigger impact on the overall direction of the pair, especially regarding BoJ policy. Keep an eye out for any major announcement in that regard in the coming days.

EUR/JPY Forecast: Support At 175.00 Holds The Key To Immediate Bullish Continuation_1

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Technical Analysis – EUR/JPY

From a technical point of view, EUR/JPY is resting above a key support level which was the recent swing high around the 175.00 handle.If this level holds there is every chance that EUR/JPY may revisit the YTD high from October 9, resting at 177.92.A break of that handle could open up a run toward the psychological 180.00 handle and beyond.A break of support at the 175.00 handle may open up a deeper retracement with a key level resting at 173.89 before the long-term ascending trendline and the 100-day MA which rests at 171.32 comes into focus.

EUR/JPY Daily Chart, October 15, 2025

EUR/JPY Forecast: Support At 175.00 Holds The Key To Immediate Bullish Continuation_2

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Olivia Brooks

Economic

Commodity

U.S. President Donald Trump said on Wednesday that Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi told him that the country will wind down its buying of Russian oil amid pressure from Washington over Moscow’s war with Ukraine.

“I was not happy that India was buying oil, and he (Modi) assured me today that they will not be buying oil from Russia,” Trump told reporters during an event at the White House, adding that India will gradually reduce its oil buying.

Trump added that he would try to get China to do the same, amid growing mounting criticism of New Delhi and Beijing for buying Russian crude and allegedly funding Russia’s war effort.

“All we want from President Putin is to… stop killing Ukraines, stop killing Russians. It doesn’t make him look good,” Trump said.

India and Russia are the two largest buyers of Russian oil, as they took advantage of discounted prices Russia had been forced to offer after Western buyers ceased purchases over Russia’s invasion of Moscow in 2022.

Trump had lambasted India and China over their buying, and had in August slapped India with a 50% trade tariff.

Trump’s announcement comes just days after his pick for Indian ambassador, Sergio Gor, met Modi in India.

India will likely have to buy oil at higher prices from other importers. But an ongoing rout in oil prices is expected to lessen this blow.

Source: Investing

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Olivia Brooks

Political

President Donald Trump said he had authorized the Central Intelligence Agency to take covert action in Venezuela, arguing that he had to stem the flow of drugs and illegal migrants into the US.

“I authorized it for two reasons,” Trump said at the White House, adding that Venezuelan leaders had “emptied their prisons in to the United States of America” and “we have a lot of drugs coming in from Venezuela.”

Trump was asked about the issue after the New York Times reported earlier Wednesday that he’d authorized the CIA to take action as part of efforts to ratchet up pressure on President Nicolas Maduro. According to the Times, the CIA would be empowered to take action against Maduro or his government, either directly or as part of a broader military operation.

Trump rebuffed a reporter who asked if the CIA has the authority to take out Maduro.

“Wouldn’t it be a ridiculous question for me to answer?” Trump said. “But I think Venezuela is feeling the heat.”

The agency would also be enabled to carry out lethal operations in Venezuela and conduct a range of operations in the Caribbean, according to the report. It’s unclear whether the CIA is actively planning operations in Venezuela or whether the authorities have been granted as a contingency, the report said.

The US has already hit a half-dozen boats in the southern Caribbean since the start of September, saying the vessels were transporting drugs to the US. The strikes have added to tensions with Maduro and prompted speculation that the US may be preparing to attack Venezuela on land.

The Trump administration had earlier offered $50 million for information leading to Maduro’s arrest, accusing him of “narco-terrorism,” and dispatched warships to the southern Caribbean in August.

Trump recently called off US diplomatic engagement with Venezuela, according to people familiar with the decision, a move that favors Secretary of State Marco Rubio’s more hardline approach and may lead to further escalation.

Source: Bloomberg Europe

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Manuel

Commodity

Political

U.S. President Donald Trump said on Wednesday that Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi has pledged to stop buying oil from Russia, and Trump said he would next try to get China to do the same as Washington intensifies efforts to cut off Moscow’s energy revenues.

India and China are the two top buyers of Russian seaborne crude exports, taking advantage of the discounted prices Russia has been forced to accept after European buyers shunned purchases and the U.S. and the European Union imposed sanctions on Moscow for its invasion of Ukraine in February 2022.

Trump has recently targeted India for its Russian oil purchases, imposing tariffs on Indian exports to the U.S. to discourage the country's crude buying as he seeks to choke off Russia's oil revenues and pressure Moscow to negotiate a peace deal in Ukraine.

“So I was not happy that India was buying oil, and he assured me today that they will not be buying oil from Russia,” Trump told reporters during a White House event.

“That’s a big step. Now we’re going to get China to do the same thing.”

The Indian embassy in Washington did not immediately respond to emailed questions about whether Modi had made such a commitment to Trump.

Russia is India's top oil supplier. Moscow exported 1.62 million barrels per day to India in September, roughly one third of the country's oil imports. For months, Modi resisted U.S. pressure, with Indian officials defending the purchases as vital to national energy security.

While imports from other producers would likely cost India more, lower oil prices would temper the impact. Benchmark Brent crude futures hit a five-month low on Wednesday on concerns about a growing surplus in the market.

A move by India to stop imports would signal a major shift by one of Moscow’s top energy customers and could reshape the calculus for other nations still importing Russian crude. Trump wants to leverage bilateral relationships to enforce economic isolation on Russia, rather than relying solely on multilateral sanctions.

The announcement comes just days after Trump’s new pick for Indian ambassador, Sergio Gor, met with Modi. The two discussed defense, trade and technology issues. The appointment of Gor, a close confidant to Trump, was widely seen as a positive move for the U.S.-India bilateral relationship.

During his comments to reporters, Trump added that India could not "immediately" halt shipments, calling it "a little bit of a process, but that process will be over soon."

Despite his push on India, Trump has largely avoided placing similar pressure on China. The U.S. trade war with Beijing has complicated diplomatic efforts, with Trump reluctant to risk further escalation by demanding a halt to Chinese energy imports from Russia.

Trump imposed a 25 percent tariff on India this summer after the two countries failed to reach an initial trade agreement. He followed up with an additional 25 percent because of the country’s purchases of Russian oil. India chafed at the move because no other top purchasers of Russian oil, like China or Turkey, were hit with similar tariffs.

Source: Reuters

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Manuel

Economic

Central Bank

The U.S. economy is still stuck in its low hiring, low firing rut, according to the Federal Reserve's anecdotal Beige Book report.

While there was no hard data attached to Wednesday's report, which covered September and early October, the Beige Book painted a picture of employers across the country avoiding mass layoffs and also steering clear of hiring many new workers. The report is always based on anecdotes from business and community leaders.

A Hiring Chill

A restaurateur in the Cleveland Fed's district summed up the report's sentiment, saying their business had "no growth, so no new positions will be added."

Another businessperson in the Atlanta Fed's district said there was a "hiring chill," with companies avoiding layoffs but welcoming attrition.

"Employment levels were largely stable in recent weeks, and demand for labor was generally muted across Districts and sectors," the report said.

When it comes to assessing the labor market, the Beige Book normally takes a back seat to the Bureau of Labor Statistics' monthly report on job creation, which is based on massive surveys of businesses and households.

But with the government and the BLS mostly shut down since Oct. 1, the Beige Book is one of the Fed's few reliable sources of information about how the economy is doing. The report told much the same story as the most recent official data for the month of August, which showed the summer had the slowest payroll growth in years.

The Fed's policy committee meets Oct. 29 and 30 to set the central bank's key fed funds rate, which dictates borrowing costs for all kinds of short term loans. Fed officials are widely expected to cut interest rates by a quarter of a percentage point, the second cut in as many meetings, to boost the job market.

What This Means For The Economy

The Beige Book's latest findings reinforce expectations the Federal Reserve will lower interest rates in the coming months to boost the job market. That will also lower borrowing costs on many short-term loans, such as on autos and credit cards.

Tariff Trouble

The slow job market was at least partly due to President Donald Trump's tariffs, according to businesspeople quoted in the Beige Book. Trump's import taxes have stoked uncertainty and slowed down business in many parts of the country, the report said.

Some businesses also reported passing the costs of the import taxes on to consumers, while others said they were paying the tariffs themselves and haven't raised prices yet.

"Tariff-induced input cost increases were reported across many Districts, but the extent of those higher costs passing through to final prices varied," the report said.

What This Means For The Fed

The report may be important for the Federal Open Market Committee because it confirms already widespread expectations that the Fed will cut interest rates at least several more times in the coming months.

Fed officials are currently grappling with whether to cut interest rates significantly to boost the job market or keep rates higher for longer to fight inflation. Inflation is still running above the Fed's target of a 2% annual rate.

The report showed "little change in the economy, continued softness in employment, and some limited pressure on prices from tariffs," Sal Guatieri, senior economist at BMO Capital Markets, wrote in a commentary. "Given the FOMC's recent preoccupation with downside job market risks, it is likely to ignore the temporary inflation threat and trim rates again later this month."

Source: Investopedia

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Manuel

Political

Economic

A telling indicator of where the current government shutdown stands can be found in a word that is increasingly being uttered across various forums in Washington: November.

Odds are increasing that the current 15-day funding shortfall may continue into next month — which of course won't begin for more than two more weeks — as both gridlocked lawmakers and analysts try to figure out how the standoff ends.

Some lawmakers are even beginning to express worries that the Thanksgiving travel season in late November could be at risk.

Veda Partners' Henrietta Treyz offered only a slightly sooner timeline to her consulting firm's clients, writing this week that early November is the next likely milestone for when the mounting pressure to end the shutdown may force lawmakers to the table.

Policymakers may agree to an extent with all sides increasingly focusing on leverage points that aren't coming until the end of the month.

And one of the Trump administrations key tools to put immediate pressure on Democrats was at least temporarily removed Wednesday when a ruling from U.S. District Court for the Northern District of California put at least a temporary pause Trump’s plans to use the shutdown to permanently fire federal employees.

It was the latest action at least delaying the sharpest political and economic shutdown pain. On another front, Trump's administration has reallocated funds to pay active-duty soldiers this week and has also overseen a $300 million infusion to a food aid program for low-income mothers.

House Speaker Mike Johnson on Wednesday lauded the move to pay military members, but he was quick to warn that the same may not be true at the end of the month, when the next round of military paychecks is scheduled to go out.

This reallocation "is a temporary fix," Johnson told reporters, adding that efforts to pay both military members and law enforcement officers on time can only extend for so long and aren't likely to be repeatable at the end of the month, so "none of those people will be paid if the Democrat obstruction continues."

Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer is also talking up November, but in the context of healthcare open enrollment, when Americans currently enrolled in Affordable Care Act subsidized plans may need to opt in, even with premiums potentially shooting up without action.

"Every day now, people are getting notices," Schumer said Wednesday on the Senate floor, "and we're getting close to November 1st when people are going to have to decide: Do they give up health insurance altogether and watch their people, their children, their spouses suffer?"

For now, there are warnings of economic costs that are mounting by the day. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said Wednesday, "We are starting to cut into muscle here," and "We believe that the shutdown may start costing the US economy up to $15 billion a day."

Analysts see varied ways the shutdown stretches to November

The multiple weeks of government shutdown — with no movement toward talks, much less any signs of compromise — have prompted analysts to increase their projections of how long this could last.

"Our US Government shutdown base case has changed," Terry Haines of Pangaea Policy wrote in one example this week, saying that markets should settle in for another three weeks of shutdown "until at least November 4."

He suggests this will be a small market negative, as politics — specifically citing the likely election of Zohran Mamdani as the next mayor of New York City on that date in November — is an item on the political calendar that will overlap with any eventual shutdown timeline.

Veda Partners' Treyz offered a similar timeline but for different reasons, telling clients she likewise views early November as when the mounting costs of a shutdown could force a compromise.

Her projection is that the need for relief for farmers will force Republicans to the table to work with Democrats on their healthcare demands.

"The ultimate solution, in our view, will be a combined farmers bailout and ACA subsidies extension, which we believe could get the necessary 218 votes in the House and 60+ in the Senate," Treyz wrote.

Signum Global Advisors is also focused on November, but the firm currently projects "an end before November 1 most likely." The reasoning is that those end-of-the-month deadlines around healthcare and military paychecks will provide a forcing mechanism that both sides will want to be ahead of.

Some focus on Thanksgiving

Perhaps the most disruptive scenario is a shutdown that extends well into November, affecting the busy Thanksgiving travel season.

Scattered travel disruptions have already been seen, as both air traffic controllers and Transportation Security Administration (TSA) workers are currently being asked to work without pay.

Republican leaders have begun to offer warnings that the effects there could grow as they continue to pressure Democrats.

"Airports will be flooded with flight cancellations and delays amid the busiest time to travel all year," House Majority Whip Tom Emmer warned on Tuesday.

As it stands, the shutdown will be the third-longest in history by the end of this week.

If things continue apace well into November, the stoppage will become the longest one in US history. That deadline is looming on Nov. 4, when the current stoppage could potentially surpass a 34-day shutdown that began in 2018.