Pakistan's Minister Tarar Says India May Launch Military Strike Within Next 24 To 36 Hours

Political

Summary:

Pakistan's information minister Attaullah Tarar said on Wednesday that Pakistan has credible intelligence that India intends to launch a military strike within the next 24 to 36 hours.

Pakistan's information minister Attaullah Tarar said on Wednesday that the country has credible intelligence that India intends to launch a military strike within the next 24 to 36 hours.

This comes as tensions rise between the two nuclear-armed nations rise as India has said there were Pakistani elements to the attack that killed 26 men at a tourist spot in Indian Kashmir last week.

Islamabad has denied any role and called for a neutral investigation.

Since the attack, the nuclear-armed nations have unleashed a raft of measures against each other, with India putting the critical Indus Waters Treaty in abeyance and Pakistan closing its airspace to Indian airlines.

"Pakistan has credible intelligence that India intends to launch a military strike within the next 24 to 36 hours using the Pahalgam incident as a false pretext," Tarar said in a post on social media platform X.

"Any act of aggression will be met with a decisive response. India will be fully responsible for any serious consequences in the region," he added.

India's foreign ministry did not immediately respond to a Reuters' request for comment.

Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi has vowed to pursue and punish the attackers.

Muslim-majority Kashmir is claimed in full by both Hindu-majority India and Islamic Pakistan. Each controls only part of it and have fought wars over the Himalayan region.

Pakistan's Defense Minister Khawaja Muhammad Asif told Reuters that a military incursion by India was imminent.

Pakistan was on high alert but would only use its nuclear weapons if "there is a direct threat to our existence," Asif said in an interview at his office in Islamabad.

Source: Reuters

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Economic

China–U.S. Trade War

President Donald Trump's approval rating held steady this week, but discontent is rising over his handling of the economy and hardline approach to immigration, amid concern about a global trade war and a push to increase deportations, a new Reuters/Ipsos poll found.

The three-day poll completed on Sunday showed 42% of respondents approved of the Republican leader's performance in office, unchanged from a prior Reuters/Ipsos poll conducted a week earlier. The share of people who disapprove of his presidency was also steady at 53%.

The share of respondents who approve of Trump's economic stewardship declined a percentage point to 36%, the lowest level in his current term or in his 2017-2021 presidency, while disapproval rose 5 points to 56%.

Fears of a recession have surged in recent weeks as Trump has launched a global trade war, hiking tariffs so high that economists warn that trade with some countries - notably China - could grind nearly to a halt. The moves have shaken investors and companies.

Inflation continued to be a sore spot. Trump's victory in the November presidential election came after inflation accelerated under his Democratic predecessor, Joe Biden. But the pace of inflation has barely eased under Trump and 59% of respondents to the latest Reuters/Ipsos poll disapproved of his handling of the cost of living in America, compared with 32% who approved.

Trump gets higher marks on his performance on immigration than on any other issue Reuters/Ipsos polled on, with 45% of respondents approving his handling of it, steady with the prior finding.

But discontent also grew here, with his disapproval rating on the topic ticking 2 points higher to 48%. Trump launched an aggressive enforcement campaign after taking office on January 20, sending troops to the southern border and pledging to deport millions of immigrants in the U.S. illegally.

Democrats and civil rights advocates have criticized Trump's heightened enforcement tactics, including the cases of several children who are U.S. citizens who were recently deported with their parents. One of the children has a rare form of cancer, according to the American Civil Liberties Union.

Some 11% of respondents in the Reuters/Ipsos poll said immigration was the most important problem facing the United States, compared to 14% in late January. The share who said the economy was the top concern in the latest poll was little changed at 22%. The share who said the biggest problem was political extremism and threats to democracy stood at 26%, up from 20% in late January.

Source: Reuters

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Cryptocurrency

Political

A recent decision by a US district court has removed sanctions from Tornado Cash, sparking discussions within the legal world. Earlier this year, the US Department of the Treasury’s Office of Foreign Assets Control (OFAC) placed sanctions on Tornado Cash through smart contracts in 2022. However, an appeals court later found that these actions exceeded legal boundaries, leading to the removal of sanctions. Despite this ruling, the legal deliberations have unveiled uncertainties, suggesting potential for similar actions in the future.

Why Was the OFAC Sanction Deemed Unlawful?

The court deemed OFAC’s sanction as illegal, with Judge Robert Pitman from the US Western District of Texas underscoring the invalidity of the sanctions on Tornado Cash. Preventive measures have now been set to dissuade future reinstatement of these sanctions by OFAC.

What Are the Stakeholders’ Responses?

In response to the rulings, six Tornado Cash users initiated legal action to have the sanctions annulled. They argued that despite the appeals court’s directive, the process of delisting remained unclear. The legal representation for the plaintiffs urged for the immediate enforcement of the appeals court’s decision, stressing that OFAC’s stance should be considered unlawful and rescinded.

The judgment cast doubt on OFAC’s legal foundation for its actions. Judge Pitman noted that the delisting seemed reliant on broad principles and legal assessments rather than concrete legal grounds. Concurrently, the US Department of Justice is continuing its investigation into allegations against Tornado Cash developers, highlighting ongoing legal scrutiny in the crypto realm.

US Deputy Attorney General Todd Blanche issued a memo pinpointing revised enforcement priorities for crypto assets. This includes pausing certain investigations and reevaluating cases related to end-user violations in decentralized platforms or offline wallets.

This ruling has cascaded effects across legal proceedings within the crypto industry. Investigations, such as those involving Samourai Wallet’s founders, are under reconsideration. Notable crypto sector figures have also petitioned White House authorities for regulatory amendments via the DeFi Education Fund.

Key insights from these proceedings include:

– Tornado Cash’s case strengthens the scrutiny against OFAC’s authority.

– The legal framework remains ambiguous, suggesting scope for future litigation.

– Judge Pitman’s decision may serve as a benchmark for judicial balance in the crypto sector.

Judge Pitman’s ruling reflects the dynamic nature of legal interpretations and their implications in the cryptocurrency sphere. The marked doubts regarding enforcement highlight potential areas for legal reform and the need for a more balanced approach to regulation.

Source: Bitcoinhaber

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Economic

Forex

Brazil's central government posted a smaller-than-expected March primary budget surplus, Treasury data showed on Tuesday, but still delivered a strong first-quarter result, helped by the postponement of court-ordered payments.

Treasury Secretary Rogerio Ceron said at a press conference that the postponement of court-ordered payments was aimed at avoiding fiscal expansion in the first quarter and adding pressure on economic activity at this time to support the central bank's drive to cool inflation by slowing the economy.

The country's primary budget surplus reached 1.1 billion reais ($195 million) in March, below the 1.3 billion reais forecast by economists polled by Reuters.

Despite the miss, the result reversed the 1 billion reais deficit recorded in the same month last year.

In the first quarter, the primary surplus reached 54.5 billion reais, more than double the 20.2 billion reais surplus posted in the same period of 2024.

The stronger year-on-year performance was largely driven by a calendar effect, as court-ordered payments fell by 31 billion reais due to a later payment schedule this year.

According to Ceron, about 70 billion reais in court-ordered decisions that the government lost will be paid in July. Last year, the bulk of these payments were in February.

Over the 12-month period through March, the primary deficit stood at 10.9 billion reais, or 0.07% of gross domestic product (GDP), broadly in line with President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva's target of a balanced primary result this year, with a tolerance margin of 0.25% of GDP.

Following the discovery of a corruption scheme involving billions of reais in illegal deductions from social security pensions, Ceron said the Treasury is not currently being asked to reimburse the affected amounts.

Ceron also acknowledged that measures approved by Congress last year failed to offset costly payroll tax exemptions as intended, and said the government is now awaiting legal clarity on how to proceed with the compensation.

Source: Reuters

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Economic

Stocks

U.S. stocks closed solidly in positive territory on Tuesday, after seesawing between modest gains and losses in choppy trading as investors assessed the latest round of corporate earnings, economic data and changes on the trade policy front.

U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent predicted China could lose 10 million jobs quickly due to tariffs, but signaled progress on trade deals with other countries including Japan and India.

The world's two largest economies have been at the center of a global trade war, sparked by tariff announcements on April 2 by the Trump administration on countries around the globe, which has stoked investor concerns about rapidly slowing global growth and a rekindling of price pressures.

Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick said U.S. President Donald Trump will sign an order on Tuesday giving automakers building vehicles in the U.S. relief from part of his new 25% vehicle tariffs to allow them time to bring parts supply chains back home.

Automaker shares showed little reaction to the potentially lighter tariffs, and General Motors (GM.N), opens new tab shares ended lower after the company reported strong quarterly results but rescinded its annual forecast.

The blue-chip Dow (.DJI), opens new tab was led by gains in Honeywell (HON.O), opens new tab, which jumped after reporting a rise in adjusted profit for the first quarter, and paint maker Sherwin-Williams (SHW.N), opens new tab, which rallied after its quarterly profit beat estimates.

Also among Dow components, Coca-Cola (KO.N), opens new tab closed higher after beating revenue and profit estimates.

"A lot of the economic data is going to be mixed, it's going to be really hard to discern tariff impacts probably for the next month or two," said Anthony Saglimbene, chief market strategist at Ameriprise Financial in Troy, Michigan.

"Corporate profits, the companies that are most impacted by tariffs, are doing what we would expect, they're cutting guidance or they're suspending guidance."

Economic data pointed to an increasing impact from the trade picture. The U.S. trade deficit in goods widened to a record high in March as businesses ramped up efforts to bring in merchandise ahead of tariffs while a separate report from the Conference Board showed its consumer confidence index dropped to its lowest reading since May 2020, while job openings indicated a relatively stable labor market.

"Trump‘s tariffs have pushed expectations off a cliff," said Brian Jacobsen, chief economist at Annex Wealth Management in Menomonee Falls, Wisconsin. "Maybe the silver lining is that it’ll be hard to not see some improvement in expectations over the next few months."

According to preliminary data, the S&P 500 (.SPX), opens new tab gained 31.93 points, or 0.56%, to end at 5,560.68 points, while the Nasdaq Composite (.IXIC), opens new tab gained 93.33 points, or 0.54%, to 17,459.46. The Dow Jones Industrial Average (.DJI), opens new tab rose 289.91 points, or 0.72%, to 40,517.50.

More economic data is due this week, culminating in Friday's key government payrolls report, along with earnings from several of the "Magnificent Seven" group of megacap stocks such as Apple (AAPL.O), opens new tab and Microsoft (.MSFT.O), opens new tab, with investors likely to home in on any signs of tariff impact.

United Parcel Service (UPS.N), opens new tab slipped after its quarterly results and said it would cut 20,000 jobs as it sheds deliveries for Amazon.com (AMZN.O), opens new tab. While each of three major indexes remains in negative territory for the year, stocks have shown signs of stabilizing in recent weeks, with the S&P 500 registering its sixth straight session of gains, its longest win streak since a seven-day run in November.

HSBC became the latest brokerage to trim its year-end target for the S&P 500 index, cutting it to 5,600 from 6,700 earlier.

Wells Fargo (WFC.N), opens new tab gained after announcing a stock buyback program of up to $40 billion.

Source: Reuters

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Bond

Economic

U.S. corporate bond markets are showing signs of caution about the economy and inflation despite a rebound in new issuances and credit spreads in the weeks since President Donald Trump first announced harsh tariffs and then provided temporary relief on them, bond market experts said.

Some 15 investment-grade companies, including Google's parent Alphabet (GOOGL.O), opens new tab, issued new bonds on Monday. In a sign that the administration’s rollbacks on some tariffs had brought back investor appetite, the issuances that raised a total of $18.3 billion saw $95 billion in orders, according to Informa Global Markets data.

When corporate bond offerings usually get more orders than the amount of debt a company is willing to raise, it is seen as a sign of strong liquidity conditions in the fixed income market.

At the same time, spreads – or the premium investors demand over Treasuries – for high-grade bonds had tightened by 17 basis points from the high reached on April 9, a sign that there was more demand for these bonds. The spreads on high-yield bonds had come in by 72 basis points from the high touched on April 4.

Even so, bond market experts said the numbers betrayed persistent nervousness among investors about the economic and policy uncertainty around tariffs.

Investors, they said, were still shying away from taking on too much risk, preferring the highest-rated companies even in investment-grade and worrying about the outlook of interest rates amid inflation fears due to tariffs.

"Sentiment is still fragile,” said Zachary Griffiths, head of investment-grade and macro strategy at CreditSights.

Griffiths said the demand for bonds on Monday was still "a sign of a risk-off sentiment” that increased when Trump announced high tariffs on imports from dozens of countries. That had resulted in a preference for sovereign bonds and high-quality corporate bonds over other riskier assets.

In addition, Griffiths said, investors worried that inflationary pressures due to tariffs will make the Federal Reserve less willing to ease rates. “That just means credit spreads are biased wider," he added.

Trump’s tariff announcement, which the administration billed as “Liberation Day,” triggered pandemonium in global markets, with investors fleeing risky assets such as stocks, while exiting U.S. assets in droves.

Investors pulled $6.1 billion from high-grade debt funds and $9.6 billion from high-yield debt funds in the week that followed the Liberation Day tariff announcements, Lipper U.S. Fund Flows data showed.

In the weeks since, Trump delayed the imposition of tariffs to allow countries to negotiate them and rolled back some measures, such as some duties on foreign parts in cars manufactured in the United States.

Bond fund outflows have continued but slowed. During the week ended April 23, fund outflows for high-grade funds slowed to $1.14 billion, while high-yield stood at $1.56 billion.

Dan Krieter, credit strategist at BMO Capital Markets, said Monday's bond offerings in the primary market showed a preference for better quality securities even within the investment-grade bonds.

Monday's BBB-rated borrowers, or those on the fringes of investment-grade, paid an average new-issue premium of 3 basis points compared to AA or A-rated borrowers of just below zero.

It "increases the rationale that further narrowing (of credit spreads) from here may prove difficult if investors continue to prioritize defensiveness at the current macroeconomic juncture," Krieter said.

Edward Marrinan, credit strategist at SMBC Nikko Securities, called it a market that is still on high attention despite the pickup in primary issuance and tightening of credit spreads over the last week.

"Companies should issue bonds now rather than wait because market conditions are relatively stable at present,” Marrinan said. “Conditions could change in coming days with the release of labor market and inflation economic data and the ongoing risk of adverse headlines on trade and tariff policy.”

Griffiths at CreditSights said his firm's probability-weighted forecasts for year-end credit spreads were at 129 basis points for investment-grade and 425 basis points for high-yield – higher than the current levels but not reflective of a crisis.

"They are capped by what we expect to be more demand if spreads widen,” Griffiths said. “So, while funding costs could rise, we do not expect it to be prohibitively expensive to issue bonds, especially for higher-rated borrowers."

On Tuesday, six new high-grade bond offerings were in the market, including from Goldman Sachs Private Credit and Las Vegas Sands (.LVS.N), opens new tab, and two high-yield ones, according to Informa.

Source: Reuters

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China–U.S. Trade War

Economic

The auto industry finally received some clarity from the White House, with a few exemptions coming to President Trump’s auto tariffs.

Confirming an earlier report from the Wall Street Journal, the government will aid automakers by preventing tariffs on foreign-made cars stacking on top of other tariffs currently imposed by the administration, a senior commerce department official said on a call with reporters.

This means automakers paying Trump’s auto tariffs on imports won’t also be charged for other duties. The White House is calling it “de-stacking,” meaning automakers will pick the highest tariff that applies to them and only pay that one, meaning no steel or aluminum tariffs or Chinese fentanyl tariffs on top of the existing tariff on foreign autos.

The move would also be retroactive to April 2nd, when the tariffs began, meaning that automakers could be reimbursed for tariffs already paid. The changes will become official when President Trump signs an executive order later on Tuesday, with more details released at that time, according to the spokesperson.

“Automakers will pay either steel or auto tariff, whichever is higher, and any rebates applied will be paid from tariff revenue, so no cost to the government,” the department official said.

Furthermore, tariffs on auto parts, coming on May 3rd, would also be reimbursed up to an amount equal to 3.75% of the value of a US-made car for one year, then 2.5% the year after before phasing out.

The 3.75% calculation comes from multiplying 15%, which is the amount of foreign made-parts automakers said they would need time to replace, multiplied by the 25% tariff on foreign auto parts. This would be an “offset,” the official said, against the automaker’s tariff bill for importing those parts.

In the second year of the plan the 2.5% reimbursement comes from multiplying 10%, which the administration hopes will be the percent of foreign parts thats can’t be sourced yet in the US, multiplied by the 25% parts tariff.

The commerce department official said that these changes to the auto parts tariffs will help automakers get more runway to onshore their supply chain, expand their plants and hire more US workers.

“Finish your cars in America, and you win,” the official said.

Automakers, in particular the Big Three, were seeking clarity from the White House on tariff exemptions, and the moves coming likely today are welcome, though still a burden comparatively speaking.

“Ford welcomes and appreciates these decisions by President Trump, which will help mitigate the impact of tariffs on automakers, suppliers, and consumers. We will continue to work closely with the administration in support of the president’s vision for a healthy and growing auto industry in America. Ford sees policies that encourage exports and ensure affordable supply chains to promote more domestic growth as essential,” Ford CEO Jim Farley said in a statement.

Farley added: “If every company that sells vehicles in the US matched Ford’s American manufacturing ratio, 4 million more vehicles would be assembled in America each year.”

“Stellantis appreciates the tariff relief measures decided by President Trump,” Stellantis Chairman John Elkann in a statement. “While we further assess the impact of the tariff policies on our North American operations, we look forward to our continued collaboration with the US Administration to strengthen a competitive American auto industry and stimulate exports.”

GM, which earlier on Tuesday said investors could not rely on its 2025 profit guidance in light of tariffs, said it would conduct its Q1 earnings call on Thursday in order to parse the deal and give investors an update.

“We appreciate the productive conversations with the President and his Administration and look forward to continuing to work together,” GM CEO and chair Mary Barra said in a statement.

Barclays analyst Dan Levy doesn’t see the exemptions as materially changing the tariff landscape for automakers.

“While the tariff softening is positive, we expect benefits to be somewhat limited vs. the greater tariff cost. The key tariff headwinds remain (25% vehicle tariff, 25% parts tariff, 20% China Fentanyl tariff),” Levy wrote in a note to clients.