Oil Rises As Trump Says He's 'Less Confident' About Nuclear Talks With Iran

India–Palestine conflict

Summary:

"it would be nicer to do it without warfare, without people dying, it’s so much nicer to do it."

The NY Post has published a new Trump interview focused on apparently stalled Iran nuclear deal efforts which resulted in a surge in oil prices.

The President said in the interview he's getting "less confident" about ongoing nuclear negotiations with Iran, soon after which oil rose as well as benchmark treasury yields and gold, as investors weigh the possibility of US-Iran nuclear talks falling apart.

Trump was asked whether he thinks the Islamic Republic will agree to shut down its nuclear program. "I don’t know. I did think so, and I’m getting more and more — less confident about it," he responded.

"They seem to be delaying, and I think that’s a shame, but I’m less confident now than I would have been a couple of months ago," Trump continued. "Something happened to them, but I am much less confident of a deal being made."

Then the question was raised by the Post, "what happens then?" To which Trump responded:

“Well, if they don’t make a deal, they’re not going to have a nuclear weapon,” Trump answered. “If they do make a deal, they’re not going have a nuclear weapon, too, you know? But they’re not going a have a new nuclear weapon, so it’s not going to matter from that standpoint.

“But it would be nicer to do it without warfare, without people dying, it’s so much nicer to do it. But I don’t think I see the same level of enthusiasm for them to make a deal. I think they would make a mistake, but we’ll see. I guess time will tell.”

On the question of China's influence on Tehran, Trump described, "I just think maybe they don’t want to make a deal. What can I say?” he said. “And maybe they do. So what does that mean? There’s nothing final."

Via AFP

On Tuesday Trump acknowledged in a Fox News interview that Iran is becoming "much more aggressive" in these negotiations. And the day prior he had told reporters that the Iranians are "tough negotiators" and sought to clarify that he would not allow Tehran to enrich uranium on its soil, after some recent contradictory reports suggested the White House had backed off this demand.

Washington is awaiting a formal response from the Islamic Republic, which is expected to submit a counter-proposal in the coming days, just ahead of an expected sixth round of indirect talks with the US in Muscat, Oman, slated for Sunday, June 15.

More geopolitical headlines via Newsquawk:

Iranian Foreign Minister "As we resume talks on Sunday, it is clear that an agreement that can ensure the continued peaceful nature of Iran's nuclear program is within reach—and could be achieved rapidly.". Thereafter, US President Trump is less confident about the Iran deal, according to a New York Post podcast interview.
Iranian Foreign Minister says "Trump's position on Iran's possession of nuclear weapons could form the basis of the agreement ", according to Al Arabiya.
US Secretary of State Rubio said the US condemns sanctions imposed by the governments of the UK, Canada, Norway, New Zealand, and Australia on two sitting members of the Israeli cabinet. Rubio also stated that Israel sanctions do not advance US-led efforts to achieve a ceasefire, bring all hostages home, and end the war, while he added that the US urges a reversal of the sanctions.
"Iran's Defense Minister warns on US officials' threats of conflict should negotiations falter: We hope for successful talks, but if conflict is imposed on us, Iran will respond decisively, targeting all US bases in host countries.", via Journalist Aslani.
"Iran successfully tested a missile equipped with a two-ton warhead last week", according to Iran International citing the Iranian Defense Minister.

Source: Zero Hedge

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Adam

Stocks

Economic

Futures for the Dow Jones Industrial Average and other major stock indexes reversed higher Wednesday, as President Donald Trump called the trade deal with China "done." Wall Street also responded bullishly to the Labor Department's latest report on inflation amid tariff concerns. Meanwhile, Tesla (TSLA) rallied again, this time over robotaxi news on the stock market today.

Ahead of the market open, Dow Jones futures rose 0.3%. S&P 500 futures gained 0.4%, while Nasdaq 100 futures moved up 0.5%.

The 10-year Treasury yield ticked lower to 4.44% Wednesday morning. Oil prices, meanwhile, extended their gains, with West Texas Intermediate futures rising near $66.05 a barrel.

Among exchange traded funds, the Invesco QQQ Trust (QQQ) gained 0.4%, while the SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY) rose 0.3% ahead of the market open.

Stock market futures reversed higher Thursday after the Labor Department's cooler-than-expected consumer price index report. The CPI rose 0.1% for the month of May, below the 0.2% estimate, with an annual increase of 2.4%, below the 2.5% Econoday estimate.

Core CPI, which excludes food and energy, rose 0.1% on the month, cooler than the 0.3% expected reading. And the year-over-year increase was 2.8%, below the 2.9% estimate.

Stock Market Today: China Deal Is 'Done'

On Truth Social Wednesday morning, Trump said that "Our deal with China is done, subject to final approval with President Xi and me." Trump went on to say that the U.S. is "getting a total of 55% tariffs, China is getting 10%."

U.S. and Chinese officials announced late Tuesday that there's a "framework" to implement the "Geneva consensus" following two days of talks in London. The delegations will take the proposal back to Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping for their approval.

U.S. officials say the framework should resolve issues regarding rare earths shipments. The Chinese team reportedly pushed for the U.S. to ease advanced chip curbs on China, but it's not clear yet what they got.

Tesla Rallies; Consumer Price Index Due

Shares of Tesla rallied another 2% Wednesday morning after Chief Executive Elon Musk wrote on X that the Tesla robotaxi service will "tentatively" begin in Austin, Texas, on June 22. Musk said the date could still shift.

Tesla had previously only said that the Austin robotaxi kickoff would be in June. Bloomberg recently reported that it might happen on June 12. Tesla shares are on a three-day winning streak.

Due out at 8:30 a.m. ET, the Labor Department's consumer price index, or CPI, is expected to rise 0.2% for the month of May, with an annual increase of 2.5%, according to estimates from Econoday. The core CPI, which excludes food and energy, is anticipated to rise 0.3% on the month. The year-over-year increase is seen at 2.9%.

Wall Street is highly anticipating this report, which is expected to provide insight into how the Trump tariffs are affecting prices.

Key earnings movers Wednesday morning included Chewy (CHWY), Dave & Busters (PLAY), GameStop (GME) and GitLab (GTLB).

Chewy stock sold off more than 7%, while shares of Dave & Busters jumped nearly 6%. GameStop stock tumbled nearly 5%, as GitLab plunged more than 12% in premarket trading.

Elsewhere, Dow Jones media giant Disney (DIS) broke out past a 113.44 buy point in a cup with handle in recent sessions, according to MarketSurge chart analysis. Shares are in the 5% buy range that goes up to 119.11, as they were flat in premarket trading Wednesday.

Tuesday's IBD Stock Of the Day was Dow Jones leader Amazon (AMZN), which broke out past a 214.84 cup-with-handle entry Monday. Amazon stock eased 0.4% premarket Wednesday.

Finally, Shopify (SHOP) is within striking distance of a 112.38 entry in a cup with handle. Shopify stock moved down a fraction in early action Wednesday.

The ongoing stock market uptrend provides a bullish setting for raising exposure, but investors still need to watch for volatility. Investors should buy stocks with a 21-day average true range, or ATR, of up to 8%. But they should be wary of being too concentrated in high-octane names.

Check out IBD MarketSurge's "Breaking Out Today" list for top growth stocks that are moving above correct buy points. Investors also can find potential breakouts on the "Near Pivot" list. To find additional stock ideas, check IBD Stock Lists like IBD 50, Big Cap 20 and Stocks Near A Buy Zone.

Source: investors

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Warren Takunda

Economic

U.S. inflation picked up a bit last month as food costs rose, though overall inflation remained mostly tame.

Consumer prices increased 2.4% in May compared with a year ago, according to a Labor Department report released Wednesday. That is up from a 2.3% yearly increase in April. Excluding the volatile food and energy categories, core prices rose 2.8% for the third straight month. Economists pay close attention to core prices because they generally provide a better sense of where inflation is headed.

The figures suggest inflation remains stubbornly above the Federal Reserve’s 2% target, which makes it less likely that the central bank will cut its key short-term interest rate. Trump has repeatedly urged the central bank to reduce borrowing costs.

Last week, the Labor Department’s Bureau of Labor Statistics, which compiles the inflation data, said it is reducing the amount of data it collects for each inflation report. Economists have expressed concern about the cutback, and while it isn’t clear how sharp the reduction is, most analysts say it is likely to have a minor impact. Still, any reduction in data collection could make the figures more volatile.

U.S. inflation likely picked up a bit last month as President Donald Trump’s tariffs start to bite, but lower prices for gas and possibly for air fares and used cars may limit the overall increase.

The government’s inflation report, to be released Wednesday, is forecast to show that consumer prices rose 2.5% in May compared with a year ago, according to economists surveyed by data provider FactSet. That would be the first increase in four months and up from 2.3% in April. Excluding the volatile food and energy categories, core prices are projected to have risen 2.9% in May from a year earlier, up from 2.8% in April.

Trump’s tariffs are expected to contribute to the uptick by raising the cost of some imports, including clothes, furniture, appliances, and possibly new cars. Many retailers and some consumer products companies have said they have plans to raise prices or have already done so to cover the cost of the import duties.

On a monthly basis, prices are expected to have moved up 0.2% from April to May, while core prices are forecast to have increased 0.3%. At that pace, core prices would rise much faster than the Federal Reserve’s 2% target. Economists and the inflation-fighters at the Fed focus on core inflation because it often provides a better sense of where inflation is headed.

Inflation has cooled in the past year and, excluding the impact of tariffs, economists say it would be on track to return to the Fed’s target, which would allow the central bank to cut its key interest rates. Yet core prices have been more stubborn and were stuck between 3.2% and 3.4% for nearly a year until February, when they started to decline a bit.

Nearly all economists expect Trump’s duties will make many things more expensive in the second half of this year, including cars and groceries, though by how much is still uncertain. Trump has slapped 30% tariffs on all imports from China, plus a 10% baseline tariff on imported goods from every other country, and 50% import taxes on steel and aluminum.

Given the potential for higher prices in the coming months, Fed Chair Jerome Powell and other Fed officials have made clear they will keep their key rate unchanged until they have a better sense of how tariffs will affect the economy.

The full impact of the tariffs likely won’t be felt until the second half of the year, analysts say, even though many tariffs have been in place, in one form or another, since March and April. There are several reasons it can take months for the duties to fully pass through into retail prices.

To begin with, many companies tried to beat the clock by bringing in foreign goods before Trump’s tariffs took effect, producing a flood of imports in March. As a result, they have stockpiled goods in warehouses that weren’t hit by tariffs and so don’t have to raise prices yet.

Many companies also held off on hiking prices during the chaos of April and May, when Trump announced sweeping tariffs on imports from nearly 60 countries, only to put them on hold a week later. He also ramped up duties on China to 145%, essentially cutting off trade with the United States’ third-largest trading partner. Imports fell sharply in April as a result. The U.S. and China last month agreed to lower duties, with the U.S. now taxing Chinese imports 30%.

For many firms, it wasn’t worth it to raise prices until they had a better sense of where tariffs would settle. It’s possible some duties could fall further if the Trump administration is able to reach trade deals in negotiations with China, the European Union, Japan and other countries.

Still, Bryan Eshelman, a partner and managing director at consulting firm AlixPartners, said higher prices “are coming.”

Eshelman expects that shoppers will start feeling the impact in July, and predicts prices for back-to-school items like clothing and backpacks could go up anywhere from 5% to 15%. Retailers may add surcharges tied to higher tariffs costs at the cash register starting in September, he said.

“I think that that’s something that retailers are going to be loathe to pull out and do. And so I think they will wait to see how things unfold, ” he said.

Most imported goods are actually parts or raw materials for larger products, such as the steel and aluminum goods now facing 50% duties. It will take time for those costs to filter through the supply chain and affect prices.

Some stores, however, have already said they will implement higher prices, including Best Buy, Walmart and Lululemon.

It was only last month when Trump ripped into Walmart after the nation’s largest retailer boldly warned that prices are already starting to go up on items like bananas. Walmart’s chief financial officer John David Rainey told The Associated Press that a car seat that currently sells for $350 at Walmart will likely cost customers another $100.

Rainey also told analysts at an Oppenheimer investor conference on Monday that for some items, Walmart will reduce inventory by as much as 20% because it expects higher prices will reduce demand, and it doesn’t want to be stuck with leftover inventory.

Source: AP

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Damon

Central Bank

Economic

Headline CPI rose 2.4% YoY last month, a modest uptick from April, but in line with expectations, while core prices rose 2.8% YoY over the same period, 0.1pp cooler than consensus, and unchanged from last time out. In addition, the so-called ‘supercore' inflation metric, aka core services less housing, rose 2.9% YoY, a notable rise from the 2.7% YoY prior, bucking the trend of coolness elsewhere.

May 2025 US CPI: No Tariff Effect Just Yet_1

Meanwhile, on an MoM basis, both headline and core prices rose just 0.1% MoM, both also considerably cooler than had been expected, with the expected price pressures from tariff pass-through thus far elusive.

As is usually the case, annualising this data helps to provide a clearer picture of underlying inflationary trends, and the broader backdrop:

•3-month annualised CPI: 1.0% (prior 1.6%)

•6-month annualised CPI: 2.6% (prior 3.0%)

•3-month annualised core CPI: 1.7% (prior 2.1%)

•6-month annualised core CPI: 2.6% (prior 3.0%)

The details of the CPI report, though, are of considerably more importance this time around than the headline metrics, as participants and policymakers alike continue to try and gauge the degree to which tariffs are being passed on to consumers in the form of higher prices. On that note, and again contrary to expectations, the pace of core goods inflation remained subdued, at just 0.3% YoY, while core services prices rose 3.6% YoY, unchanged from last time out.

May 2025 US CPI: No Tariff Effect Just Yet_2

As the data was digested, money markets repriced marginally in a dovish direction, once again fully discounting two 25bp cuts by year-end, up from around 44bp pre-release.

May 2025 US CPI: No Tariff Effect Just Yet_3

Taking a step back, the May CPI figures reinforce the FOMC's ongoing ‘wait and see' approach, and shan't significantly alter the monetary policy outlook. Despite being cooler than consensus, upside inflation risks from tariffs clearly remain.

Policymakers, hence, will remain on the sidelines for the time being, seeking to ‘buy time' in order to assess the impacts of the tariffs which have been imposed, and how this alters the balance of risks to each side of the dual mandate. Concurrently, the Committee are also attempting to ensure that inflation expectations remain well-anchored, despite the trade-induced ‘hump' in inflation that we are now likely to see through to the end of summer.

Overall, Powell & Co. seem highly unlikely to deliver any rate cuts before the fourth quarter, with just one 25bp cut in December my base case, even if the direction of travel for rates clearly remains to the downside. Next week's FOMC is unlikely to ‘rock the boat' especially much, merely being a ‘placeholder' as policymakers continue to stand pat for the time being.

Source: Pepperstone

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Warren Takunda

Economic

China–U.S. Trade War

The Dollar is the top-performing G10 currency in the midweek session, buoyed by news of progress between China and the U.S. in unlocking a stalled trade accord.

The U.S. and China have agreed on a framework for implementing the accord they agreed in Geneva back in May, which aims to revive the flow of sensitive goods.

The new framework will see China speed up shipments of rare earth metals and the U.S. ease some of its export controls on sensitive technologies. The latest agreement still requires approval from Donald Trump and Xi Jinping.

"Now we can go forward to try to do positive trade, growing trade," said U.S. Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick, following talks held with Chinese counterparts in London.

The Geneva accord was welcomed by markets as concrete evidence that the worst of the trade war fears had come to pass, which would offer relief for the Dollar.

However, the accord soon floundered, with both the U.S. and China proving reticent in committing to key aspects of the Geneva accord.

Dollar strength suggests markets see some relief in the news, and the GBP/USD pair extends a short-term retreat to test 1.3473, having been as high as 1.3616 last week.

News of progress between China and the U.S. in the London talks will support investor sentiment and prompt markets to unwind some of the aggressive positioning that has built up against the currency in recent months.

However, there will remain an air of caution over whether progress will be guaranteed, given the false starts of recent times.

"While the mood music has stayed positive, investors may be wary of the pattern that emerged during the previous US-China trade talks in 2018-19, when apparently constructive in-person meetings seemed to take a step back as the negotiating teams returned to their capitals," says Jim Reid, macro strategist at Deutsche Bank.

"So there's perhaps a little disappointment this morning that we haven't yet got a bigger announcement, even though there's time to hear the full conclusions of the meeting," he adds.

Longer-term, the prospects for the Dollar remain challenging, and further GBP/USD upside is still likely as that trend of weakness in the Greenback plays out.

"We continue to expect the USD to depreciate broadly this year, though recognise that this is increasingly becoming a consensus view," says Alex Cohen, FX Strategist at Bank of America.

Source: Poundsterlinglive

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Warren Takunda

Economic

London stocks were a smidgen firmer by midday on Wednesday as investors mulled news of a "framework" trade truce between the US and China, with housebuilders up ahead of Chancellor Rachel Reeves’ spending review and all eyes on a key US inflation reading.

The FTSE 100 was up just 0.1% at 8,857.76.

After two days of Sino-US talks in London, US Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick said both sides had agreed a framework for implementing the consensus reached in Geneva.

Kathleen Brooks, research director at XTB, said: "The big news on Wednesday is that the US/ China trade talks have come to an end. The talks concluded with a pledge to enforce the Geneva protocol on trade between the two nations, albeit with a renewed focus on some sensitive areas.

"China has pledged to speed up shipments of rare earth minerals to the US, while the US side has agreed to curb some export controls."

On the macro front, investors awaited the release of the US consumer price index for May at 1330 BST amid expectations for headline and core inflation to edge higher to 2.4% and 2.9% respectively.

On home shores, meanwhile, Rachel Reeves will deliver her spending review after PMQs.

Brooks said: "This much-hyped event will see the chancellor allocate £600bn of public funding later today, which is one quarter of the UK economy. No pressure then, Rachel! One wrong move and the Chancellor’s hopes for growth could be dashed. Much of the spending review has already been flagged.

"There will be more money for defense and the NHS, pensioners will get their winter fuel allowance back and hopes for a bigger policing budget look like they have been dashed. The chancellor has already pledged to invest in Northern transport links; some may wonder if London and the South will get any pledges from the Chancellor later today.

"While we know where the vast amount of money will be allocated ahead of this speech, what we don’t know is where the savings will come from? The spending review has been touted as one of the biggest ever Treasury exercises, going line by line through government departments budgets to look for inefficiencies and elimination of waste. If the Chancellor cannot convince the market that she is serious about getting the UK’s finances on a good footing, then the UK Gilt market may give back some of Tuesday’s gains, and bond yields could rise, which may weigh on sterling."

In equity markets, Asia-focused Prudential and Standard Chartered were among the top risers.

Housebuilders rallied, with Reeves expected to announce a £39bn investment for social and affordable housing in the spending review. Persimmon, Barratt Redrow, Berkeley, Vistry, Crest Nicholson and Bellway were all up.

Healthcare property investment and management firm Assura advanced after it agreed to an increased and final 52.1p-a-share offer from KKR and Stonepeak valuing the company at around £1.7bn.

On the downside, building products manufacturer Ibstock tumbled as its guidance for full-year adjusted EBITDA fell short of consensus expectations

Source: Sharecast

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Gerik

Economic

Trade Truce and Global Currency Realignment Boost Yuan

JPMorgan on Wednesday revised its outlook for China’s onshore yuan, upgrading the forecast from 7.30 to 7.15 yuan per U.S. dollar by the end of 2025. This move reflects growing optimism about a stabilized U.S.-China trade relationship and an accelerating global push away from U.S. dollar dependency. The bank also projects a continued appreciation to 7.10 by mid-2026, supported by improving bilateral dialogue and structural financial trends.

This shift in expectations follows encouraging news from London, where U.S. and Chinese negotiators reached a framework agreement aimed at reviving their stalled trade détente. The announcement helped hold the yuan steady around 7.1875 in European trading, signaling a market belief that tariff risks may be contained for now.

De-Dollarisation Adds Structural Support

Beyond immediate trade developments, JPMorgan’s forecast reflects a deeper, long-term structural trend: the global diversification of foreign exchange reserves away from the U.S. dollar. As the dollar’s share in global reserves continues to decline—fueled by fiscal uncertainty in the U.S. and growing geopolitical fragmentation—currencies like the yuan are beginning to attract greater interest, particularly in bilateral and regional trade.

This de-dollarisation trend is also being supported by the expansion of China’s currency swap agreements and the increasing role of the yuan in commodities trading, especially in energy and agriculture sectors across Asia and Africa. In this broader context, JPMorgan’s upgrade is not merely a reaction to short-term risk moderation, but also a strategic recalibration aligned with evolving reserve management behavior.

Stable Yuan, Fragile Equilibrium

The yuan’s recent steadiness underscores investor confidence in the currency’s resilience, especially amid geopolitical tensions and fluctuating capital flows. However, JPMorgan’s expectation of only a “gentle downtrend” for USD/CNY signals that the path forward remains gradual and data-sensitive. Any disruption in trade talks or renewed escalation in tariffs could reverse gains quickly, making the current optimism contingent on diplomatic follow-through.

In conclusion, while the yuan may be entering a more stable and appreciated phase relative to the dollar, the broader implications lie in the shifting foundations of global finance—where trust in traditional dollar hegemony is giving way to a more multipolar monetary system.

Source: Reuters

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