Oil Prices Waver as OPEC+ Pauses Output Hikes Amid Demand Concerns and Looming Surplus

Economic

Commodity

Summary:

Brent crude slipped below $65 as OPEC+ decided to halt production increases starting January 2026, signaling expectations of weakening demand and a growing risk of global oversupply in the months ahead...

OPEC+ Shifts Course Amid Seasonal Slowdown and Supply Warnings

Oil prices remained under pressure as OPEC+ announced a strategic pause in its ongoing production recovery plan. The alliance of oil producers, led by Saudi Arabia and Russia, will suspend output increases in the first quarter of 2026. The move reflects internal expectations of a seasonal demand dip, as well as mounting evidence that the global oil market could face a supply glut in early 2026.

Brent crude the global benchmark dropped below $65 per barrel, reversing brief gains and continuing a downward trend that has seen prices fall roughly 10% over the past three months. This decline is largely attributable to a surge in production from both OPEC+ and non-OPEC countries, which has overwhelmed demand resilience and caused inventory builds in key storage hubs.

While the official pause in quota hikes doesn’t significantly change projected output volumes, Morgan Stanley analysts noted that the announcement sends “an important signal” that OPEC+ remains responsive to shifting market dynamics. The group still has about 1.2 million barrels per day of production left to bring back from prior cuts, though actual restoration has lagged due to operational limits and compensatory measures for prior overproduction.

Surplus Fears and Market Adjustments

Despite the output pause, several banks, including Morgan Stanley, maintain their warnings about a potential market surplus in early 2026. The supply-demand imbalance appears likely to persist as U.S., Canadian, and Brazilian producers continue ramping up, contributing to a broader supply overhang.

The UAE, one of OPEC’s largest exporters, attempted to calm fears of a glut, framing the current market conditions as manageable. However, sentiment remains fragile. With prices recently bouncing from a five-month low, volatility has been intensified by geopolitical developments, including tighter U.S. sanctions on Russian energy entities such as Rosneft and Lukoil, and disruptions from military actions.

Geopolitical Risks Add Complexity to Oil Outlook

Further complicating the outlook, traders are closely watching security risks in energy corridors. A recent Ukrainian drone strike in the Black Sea targeted Russian oil infrastructure in Tuapse, setting a tanker ablaze and damaging loading facilities at a Rosneft-operated refinery. These facilities were already under U.S. sanctions, and the attack heightened concerns about the security of Russian export routes.

Meanwhile, President Donald Trump introduced another layer of geopolitical risk by threatening military intervention in Nigeria, Africa’s largest oil producer, over religious violence. He also hinted at suspending U.S. aid to the country, which is a member of OPEC. These developments contribute to the perception that supply risks could counterbalance slowing demand, at least in the short term.

Market Uncertainty Balances Supply Pause Against Structural Headwinds

The current dip in oil prices underscores the complex interplay between production policy, demand forecasts, and geopolitical instability. OPEC+’s decision to pause output hikes reflects caution amid growing inventory levels and seasonal weakness. However, the broader market remains at a crossroads.

With AI-fueled economic activity supporting some demand and global conflicts introducing supply risks, the market is walking a tightrope. Structural oversupply concerns, especially if non-OPEC producers continue to grow output aggressively, may continue to cap price rallies unless demand surprises to the upside or geopolitical disruptions become more pronounced.

In this environment, oil traders must navigate both cyclical trends and unpredictable global events, reinforcing a cautious outlook as the energy market transitions into 2026.

Source: Reuters

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Justin

Forex

Cryptocurrency

Economic

Hong Kong will ease rules to promote virtual asset trading liquidity as part of the city's push to become a major fintech and digital asset hub, government officials said on Monday.

Hong Kong's Securities and Futures Commission (SFC) will relax rules on Monday to allow locally licensed virtual asset trading platforms (VATP) to share global order books with affiliates overseas, Julia Leung, CEO of the securities watchdog, told the Hong Kong Fintech Week conference.

The move eases current rules that require VATP's order book - a list of buy and sell orders for virtual assets - to be ring-fenced in Hong Kong. The changes are designed to allow operations to tap global liquidity.

The relaxation comes as Hong Kong competes to become a global fintech and digital asset hub against rivals such as Singapore and the U.S. market, amid surging appetite for digital investments.

Meanwhile, Hong Kong's banking sector is poised to benefit from rising investment in digital transformation, according to the city's de-facto central bank.

"The momentum behind this transformation is underscored by substantial technological investment with total spending projected to reach more than HK$100 billion ($12.87 billion) every year in the next three years," said Eddie Yue, chief executive of Hong Kong Monetary Authority at the same forum.

Source: Yahoo Finance

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Gerik

Economic

Markets Rally Despite Trump-Induced Turbulence

Since Donald Trump’s victory over Kamala Harris in the 2024 U.S. presidential election, global financial markets have undergone a year of volatility and recalibration. Investors have had to decipher an increasingly erratic U.S. policy landscape, from aggressive tariff policies to sudden reversals what traders now call the “TACO” trade, shorthand for “Trump Always Chickens Out.” This pattern has created predictable unpredictability, which markets have started to price in more systematically.

In the immediate aftermath of the election, asset prices surged as investors bet on increased fiscal stimulus and deregulation. Stocks, gold, and bitcoin all hit historic highs, and the U.S. dollar initially strengthened sharply. However, deeper into the Trump presidency, divergences have emerged between asset classes, shaped by inflation expectations, spending projections, and geopolitical friction.

The Dollar’s Mixed Signals in a Geopolitical Chessboard

The U.S. dollar initially rallied post-election on expectations of massive government stimulus and tax cuts. Yet, despite a strong start, it has declined by a net 4% over the past year. This decline reflects investor unease over widening deficits and unpredictable trade policy. While short-term demand for the dollar remains strong in times of crisis what one analyst calls “the cleanest dirty shirt” longer-term sentiment is eroding.

A contributing factor to this weakening trend has been Trump's trade wars. Although tariffs are intended to protect U.S. industry, they’ve introduced cost pressures that complicate supply chains and drive foreign holders to diversify away from dollar exposure.

Bitcoin, Gold Soar as Alternatives to Uncertainty

The most striking market move has been in alternative assets. Bitcoin soared to an all-time high of $125,835.92 in October, driven in part by Trump’s crypto-friendly stance, though concerns remain about potential conflicts of interest. Similarly, gold traditionally a hedge against uncertainty reached a historic peak of $4,381 per ounce in the same month. The confluence of inflation fears, geopolitical risks, and erratic trade policy has pushed investors toward assets perceived as politically and monetarily agnostic.

The S&P 500 is up 17% year-over-year, driven by robust gains in AI and tech-related sectors. Trump’s unpredictable trade moves, including his “Liberation Day” tariff blitz in April, triggered brief market shocks such as a 10% drop in the MSCI World Index but were quickly absorbed by a market buoyed by enthusiasm for AI-led innovation and expectations of lower interest rates.

In Europe, defense-related stocks have led rallies, particularly as Trump pushed NATO allies to increase military spending. Asian markets, notably in Japan, South Korea, and China, also climbed, helped by a softer dollar and tech sector outperformance.

Tesla’s Volatile Year Amid Politics and Branding Risk

Tesla’s stock story encapsulates the high-stakes entanglement of politics and business in Trump 2.0. After Elon Musk backed Trump’s campaign with over $250 million and briefly joined the campaign trail, Tesla shares doubled to $488.5 in early 2025. However, after Musk assumed leadership of Trump’s Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE), consumer backlash began to erode brand loyalty. The company posted two consecutive quarters of declining deliveries.

Despite this political fallout and mid-year stock correction, Tesla remains the world’s most valuable automaker, outperforming legacy competitors due to sustained investor belief in long-term electrification trends.

Bond Markets Reflect Fiscal Strain and Monetary Divergence

Bond yields have risen globally, reflecting concern over swelling government deficits, particularly after Trump’s “One Big Beautiful Bill” passed in July expected to add $3.8 trillion to the federal debt over a decade. While U.S. 30-year Treasury yields rose modestly by 14 basis points to 4.66%, the reaction was more severe overseas. Japan’s 30-year bonds surged by 85 basis points, and French and German equivalents climbed by 62 and 59 basis points, respectively.

This disparity suggests international investors are increasingly wary of sovereign risk, particularly in markets with weaker growth outlooks or higher inflation vulnerability.

Tariffs Slash Trade Deficit, But At What Cost?

Trump has returned to his signature economic weapon: tariffs. Branding them “the most beautiful word in the dictionary,” he has imposed steep duties to shrink America’s trade deficit. The result has been notable U.S. trade deficits hit a two-year low of $60.2 billion in June, while the deficit with China plunged 70% in just five months.

However, these “wins” come with costs. Tariffs have raised business input prices and forced firms to recalibrate global sourcing strategies. Some data suggests that the EU has borne more of the trade war’s pain than China, which possesses more diversified supply chains and alternative trade routes.

A Market of Highs Amid Strategic Drift

A year into Trump’s second term, global markets are reaching new peaks but beneath the surface lies significant unease. Investors are learning to navigate volatility by anticipating Trump’s behavioral patterns, but the broader system built on stable rules-based trade and diplomacy is eroding.

The interplay of soaring AI investments, aggressive tariff policies, and the weaponization of currency and trade balances signals a more chaotic, transactional phase of global capitalism. If Trump’s style of governance continues to blend economic nationalism with fiscal expansion and erratic diplomacy, investors may increasingly turn to hedges be it gold, bitcoin, or geopolitical diversification to manage the fallout. What remains clear is that market highs are no longer purely a function of growth expectations, but of adaptability to an unpredictable political climate.

Source: Reuters

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Adam

Forex

The dollar hovered at a three-month high against a basket of peers on Monday ahead of economic data this week that will offer only vague clues about the health of the U.S. economy and could reinforce the Federal Reserve's cautious stance.

The Fed lowered interest rates by 25 basis points last week, as expected, but Chair Jerome Powell signalled that may be the central bank's last cut this year, citing the risk of making additional moves without a more robust picture of the economy.

Were it not for the ongoing U.S. government shutdown, data releases scheduled for this week, including U.S. non-farm payrolls, would have helped with that picture.

However, with government releases likely to be delayed again, investors will be left with ADP employment data and ISM PMIs, though it seems unlikely these will move the dial significantly.

A number of Fed bank presidents on Friday aired their discomfort with the decision to ease policy, and traders are now pricing in a roughly 68% chance of a 25 bp cut in December, having seen such a move as highly likely ahead of last week's meeting.

The yen was at 154.1 per dollar, languishing near an 8-1/2-month low, pressured by wide interest rate differentials.

Meanwhile the euro was down 0.16% at $1.1513, its lowest in three months, and the pound was 0.3% lower at $1.3133. ,

That left the dollar index, which measures the currency against a basket of six other majors, up 0.16% at 99.89, around its highest since August 1.

The index has traded in a tight range between about 96 and 100 over the last six months.

"All eyes are on whether it can break out of that range, and if the rebound has legs," said Lee Hardman, senior currency analyst at MUFG, adding that the main driver of the stronger dollar was the hawkish repricing of Fed expectations.

The pound and the yen face their own pressures.

Even though Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda last week sent the strongest signal yet that a rate hike was possible as soon as December, markets remained underwhelmed by the central bank's gradual approach, particularly given that the Fed has turned more hawkish.

That has piled pressure on the yen, prompting jawboning from Japanese authorities to stem the currency's slide.

The yen is approaching levels at which Japanese authorities intervened in markets in 2022 and 2024 to support the currency.

"The yen could start to see more support as markets get nervous about intervention as we get close to those levels, though I don't think it's enough to change things on its own," said Hardman.

The yen was also pinned near last week's record low against the euro, last trading at 177.4 .

Sterling has softened as market expectations of another Bank of England rate cut this year increased after softer-than-expected inflation data released last month.

The BoE meets this week, with some analysts predicting a 25 basis point cut, though market pricing only reflects a one in three chance of this occurring.

The Aussie inched up 0.1% to $0.6554, supported by expectations that the Reserve Bank of Australia will hold rates on Tuesday, following an uncomfortably high reading of core inflation, while the dollar was up 0.34% to 0.8072 Swiss francs, its highest since mid-August.

Source: reuters

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Michelle

Forex

Economic

As global economies grapple with persistent inflation, all eyes are on central banks and their crucial decisions. For cryptocurrency enthusiasts, understanding these macroeconomic shifts is paramount, as they often dictate the broader market sentiment and investment flows. The upcoming RBA interest rate decision in November is no exception, poised to deliver a 'hawkish hold' that could send ripples through the financial world, including digital asset markets. Let's delve into what this means for Australia and beyond.

Understanding the RBA Interest Rate Decision: What to Expect?

The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) is at a critical juncture. After a period of aggressive rate hikes, the central bank has opted for a pause in recent months, allowing time for previous tightening to work through the economy. However, the latest inflation data has complicated this strategy, pushing market expectations towards a scenario where the RBA maintains a firm, or 'hawkish,' stance even if it doesn't raise rates immediately.

A 'hawkish hold' implies that while the cash rate might remain unchanged, the accompanying statement from the RBA will likely convey a strong bias towards further tightening if inflationary pressures do not subside. This communication strategy is designed to keep financial conditions tight and temper inflation expectations without necessarily delivering another rate hike immediately. Investors, including those in the crypto space, pay close attention to such nuances, as they signal future policy direction and risk appetite.

Key Considerations for the November Meeting:

Sticky Inflation: The primary driver behind the hawkish sentiment.
Labor Market Resilience: A strong jobs market provides the RBA with flexibility to tighten.
Global Economic Headwinds: The RBA must balance domestic conditions with international developments.
Forward Guidance: The language used in the official statement will be crucial for market interpretation.

The Stubborn Reality of Australian Inflation: Q3 Data Deep Dive

The latest inflation figures from Australia's third quarter have been the primary catalyst for the shift in market expectations. The data revealed that inflation is proving to be more persistent than anticipated, particularly in key sectors. This 'stickiness' has challenged the RBA's previous narrative that inflation was on a clear path back to the target range of 2-3%.

Let's look at some of the key components that contributed to this elevated Australian inflation:

Inflation Component	Q3 Performance (indicative)	Impact on RBA Decision
Services Inflation	Remained elevated, especially in areas like rents, insurance, and utilities.	Suggests underlying domestic demand pressures are strong, requiring sustained vigilance.
Goods Inflation	Showed some signs of easing but still above pre-pandemic levels.	Supply chain improvements are helping, but domestic pricing power remains a concern.
Wage Growth	Continued to accelerate, albeit gradually, contributing to services inflation.	A critical factor for the RBA, as sustained wage growth can fuel a wage-price spiral.
Fuel Prices	Recent spikes added to headline inflation pressures.	Volatile, but can influence consumer expectations and broader price setting.

The challenge for the RBA is that while some global factors influencing inflation are easing, domestic demand and services inflation remain robust. This suggests that the economy might still be running 'too hot,' necessitating a cautious approach to monetary policy.

Decoding the Monetary Policy Stance: Why a Hawkish Hold?

The decision to opt for a 'hawkish hold' is a strategic one, aimed at threading the needle between over-tightening and under-tightening. Given the persistent inflation, a direct rate hike would send a strong signal, but it also carries the risk of pushing the economy into a deeper slowdown than intended. Conversely, a dovish pause, or even a neutral one, might be misinterpreted by markets as a sign of complacency, potentially reigniting inflationary expectations.

Reasons for a Hawkish Hold:

Inflationary Pressure: As discussed, Q3 inflation data highlights that price pressures are not dissipating as quickly as hoped, particularly in the services sector.
Maintaining Credibility: The RBA needs to demonstrate its commitment to bringing inflation back to target. A hawkish tone reinforces this commitment.
Data Dependency: By holding rates but maintaining a hawkish bias, the RBA keeps its options open, allowing it to react swiftly to incoming data without committing to a definitive path.
Global Context: Other major central banks, like the Federal Reserve and the European Central Bank, are also navigating similar challenges, and the RBA's stance needs to align with global trends to manage currency stability.

This approach allows the RBA to continue assessing the lagged effects of previous rate hikes while signalling that the fight against inflation is far from over. It's a balancing act that requires clear communication to guide market expectations effectively.

Impact on the Economic Outlook Australia: What Lies Ahead?

The RBA's monetary policy decisions have profound implications for the broader economic outlook Australia. A hawkish hold, combined with sticky inflation, paints a picture of continued economic uncertainty, where growth might be subdued while living costs remain elevated.

Potential Impacts on the Australian Economy:

Consumer Spending: Higher interest rates, even if paused, mean higher borrowing costs for mortgages and other loans, which can dampen consumer spending and confidence.
Business Investment: Businesses may defer investment decisions in an environment of high interest rates and uncertain demand, potentially slowing job creation.
Housing Market: While the housing market has shown some resilience, sustained high rates could put renewed pressure on affordability and prices.
Exchange Rate: A hawkish RBA could support the Australian Dollar (AUD), making imports cheaper but potentially impacting export competitiveness.
Inflation Path: The ultimate goal is to guide inflation back to the target. The success of the RBA's policy will be measured by its ability to achieve this without triggering a severe recession.

For investors, particularly those looking at the crypto market, Australia's economic health offers insights into broader global sentiment. A strong, stable economy with contained inflation is generally more conducive to risk-on assets, whereas persistent inflation and aggressive central bank action can lead to increased volatility.

Navigating Market Reactions: Implications of a Hawkish Hold

How will financial markets react to a hawkish hold from the RBA? The immediate response often involves movements in the Australian Dollar (AUD), bond yields, and equity markets. For crypto investors, these traditional market reactions are important barometers of overall risk sentiment.

Expected Market Reactions:

Australian Dollar (AUD): A hawkish tone might provide some support for the AUD, as it signals the potential for future rate hikes, making the currency more attractive to yield-seeking investors. However, if global risk aversion dominates, this support could be limited.
Bond Yields: Australian government bond yields are likely to remain elevated or even rise, reflecting expectations of higher-for-longer interest rates. This impacts borrowing costs across the economy.
Equity Markets: Australian equities, particularly interest-rate sensitive sectors, might face headwinds as higher borrowing costs and reduced consumer spending weigh on corporate earnings. However, resource stocks could benefit from global commodity demand.
Cryptocurrency Markets: While not directly tied to the RBA, a hawkish hold contributes to a tighter global monetary environment. This generally translates to reduced liquidity and higher opportunity costs for holding non-yielding assets like cryptocurrencies. However, if the RBA's stance is perceived as a credible step towards long-term economic stability, it could eventually foster a more favorable environment for risk assets once inflation is under control.

It's crucial for market participants to not just focus on the rate decision itself but also on the RBA's forward guidance. Any hints about the likelihood of future hikes or the conditions under which they might occur will be heavily scrutinized. For instance, if the RBA explicitly states that 'further tightening may be required,' it sends a much stronger signal than a more ambiguous phrase.

Challenges and Actionable Insights for Investors

The current economic climate presents both challenges and opportunities. For the RBA, the challenge is to tame inflation without stifling economic growth. For investors, it's about positioning portfolios to navigate this uncertainty.

Challenges:

Persistent Inflation: Erodes purchasing power and can lead to policy overshoots.
Interest Rate Volatility: Can impact borrowing costs and asset valuations.
Global Economic Slowdown: External factors can weigh on Australia's export-dependent economy.
Policy Uncertainty: Shifting central bank narratives can create market choppiness.

Actionable Insights:

Diversify Portfolios: Consider a mix of assets that can perform in different economic scenarios.
Monitor Central Bank Communications: Pay close attention to statements from the Reserve Bank of Australia, particularly speeches by Governor Michele Bullock, for clues on future policy.
Understand Inflation Drivers: Differentiate between global and domestic inflationary pressures to anticipate policy responses.
Risk Management: In an environment of higher interest rates, leverage can become more expensive and riskier. Review your risk exposure, especially in volatile assets like cryptocurrencies.
Long-Term Perspective: While short-term volatility is likely, focus on the long-term fundamentals of your investments.

Conclusion: Navigating the RBA's Prudent Path

The RBA's November meeting is set to be a pivotal moment, with a 'hawkish hold' likely to be the chosen path. This strategy reflects the central bank's delicate balancing act: acknowledging persistent Australian inflation while assessing the lagged effects of previous tightening. For investors across all asset classes, including the dynamic world of cryptocurrencies, understanding this nuanced monetary policy stance is key to navigating the evolving economic outlook Australia. The RBA's commitment to price stability, even through a 'hawkish hold', underpins the long-term health of the Australian economy, and its implications resonate far beyond its borders. Staying informed and agile will be crucial in the months ahead.

To learn more about the latest Forex market trends, explore our article on key developments shaping interest rates and economic stability.

This post RBA's Crucial Dilemma: Navigating Australian Inflation with a Hawkish Hold first appeared on BitcoinWorld.

Source: CryptoSlate

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Adam

Stocks

OPENING CALL

Stock futures were on the rise on Monday ahead of another busy week for earnings.

Roughly one-third of S&P 500-listed companies have yet to report third-quarter results, according to FactSet. Results are due across a swathe of industries, with earnings from Palantir and Advanced Micro Devices expected this week.

Investors are still coming to terms with Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell's message last week that a December rate cut wasn't a foregone conclusion. Comments from Fed members since the meeting show differing views.

As the government shutdown continues, official data is not being released. Scheduled reports that could be delayed include trade data and factory orders figures on Tuesday, weekly jobless claims figures Thursday and monthly jobs data on Friday.

The focus is currently on private-sector reports, notably the ISM surveys on manufacturing activity in October due on Monday.

Goldman Sachs said the current shutdown looks likely to have the greatest economic impact of any shutdown on record. It added that a longer shutdown could have a greater effect on federal purchases and investment, and potentially spillover into private sector activity.

Stocks to Watch

Aurinia Pharmaceuticals sued a Food and Drug Administration official. Dr. George Tidmarsh, who was hired to lead the FDA's drug division in July, resigned from the agency on Sunday.

Berkshire Hathaway said earnings rose 17% after its insurance business picked up last quarter. Plus, its trove of cash and equivalents hit a record high. Shares rose more than 1% premarket.

CompoSecure is set to acquire Husky Technologies, a molding-equipment provider, from Platinum Equity for roughly $5 billion, including debt, The Wall Street Journal reported.

Getty Images shareholder Neuberger Berman Group, an investment firm, sold 63,000 shares. The stock declined 3% in after-hours trading.

ON Semiconductor is due to report quarterly earnings this morning. Shares rose premarket, as did other chip stocks, including Nvidia (NVDA) and Micron Technology.

Middlesex Water reported third-quarter revenue below expectations. Shares declined 2.4% after the close.

Palantir is due to post results this afternoon. Shares gained nearly 2% before the bell.

Pfizer sued to block Metsera from terminating their multibillion-dollar merger deal, after Novo Nordisk made an unsolicited, rival takeover bid.

Rani Therapeutics reported that the investment firm Samsara Biocapital bought a stake in the company. The stock gained 15% after the bell.

Ryanair posted an increase in first-half net profit that beat estimates. It said earlier-than-expected deliveries of Boeing aircraft would allow it to carry more passengers in fiscal 2026 than previously forecast. However, shares fell more than 2%.

Watch For:

ISM Report on Business Manufacturing PMI, Fed Governor Lisa Cook on the Economic Outlook and Monetary Policy in Washington, D.C.

Today's Top Headlines/Must Reads:

-How the U.S. Economy Has Defied Doomsday Predictions on Tariffs

-Is OpenAI Becoming Too Big to Fail?

-Why Pfizer Can Still Prevail in the Obesity Fight With Novo Nordisk

MARKET WRAPS Forex:

The dollar rose to a three-month high against a basket of currencies and against the euro, extending gains as investors scale back U.S. rate-cut expectations .

The Canadian dollar could struggle to appreciate as trade tensions between the U.S. and Canada persist, Commerzbank said.

Sterling fell ahead of the Bank of England's policy decision later in the week, where markets have priced an increased chance of another interest-rate cut, ING said.

Bonds:

Treasury yields decline, with long-end Treasury yields reversing an earlier rise.

While the U.S. government shutdown continued, potential drivers for Treasurys this week included the quarterly refunding announcement on Wednesday.

Energy:

Oil prices rose after OPEC+ agreed to pause output hikes for the first quarter of next year, easing fears of a growing supply surplus.

"This period is normally a period of lower demand, and delegates said the decision to pause from January reflects expectations of a seasonal slowdown," ANZ said.

Metals:

Gold futures rose in early trade. Investors are digesting last week's U.S.-China trade agreement . However, further price gains are capped by reduced expectations for further U.S. interest-rate cuts in December.

Gold Chart

Comex gold futures' downside correction was likely short-term, based on last Friday's price movements , according to the daily gold chart, RHB Retail Research said.

Copper

Copper prices were broadly flat, with disappointing Chinese manufacturing data and a firmer dollar weighing on the demand outlook .

Iron

Iron ore was lower. Short-term positive factors on macroeconomic levels were largely priced in , and market focus was shifting back to fundamentals, Nanhua Futures said.

TODAY'S TOP HEADLINES

Chipotle's Big Bet on Younger Consumers Is Unraveling

An uncertain U.S. economy is catching up to younger Americans-and Chipotle.

The Mexican-inspired chain has spent years cultivating a younger clientele, pitching its burritos and bowls as nutritious, protein-packed meals for gym bros and healthy eaters. Chipotle Mexican Grill sponsors videogame competitions, and some dedicated fans dub themselves "Chipotle Boys."

Why the Future of Coffee Doesn't Belong to Starbucks

Coffee is one of the most profitable and habit-forming products in the restaurant business. Yet few have cracked the code to become ubiquitous.

Ever since Howard Schultz transformed a small Seattle coffee retailer into a global powerhouse-now with just under 17,000 stores in the U.S.-few have managed the leap from regional favorite to national brand. The numbers tell the story: Despite dozens of smaller chains and thousands of independents, Starbucks and Dunkin' Brands still control about 85% of the U.S. coffee market measured by sales, according to Morgan Stanley.

Singapore's Top Real-Estate Asset Managers Mull Merger That Could Create $150 Billion Entity

Two of Singapore's biggest real-estate asset managers are exploring a merger that could create one of Asia-Pacific's top property companies with more than US$150 billion in assets under management, people familiar with the process said.

Temasek-owned Mapletree Investments and Singapore-listed CapitaLand Investment are considering a potential business combination, people familiar with the matter said. The two property developers are likely to start laying the groundwork for the process as early as next year, the people said.

Former Honeywell CEO's Firm Strikes Deal for Machinery Maker Husky

The former leader of industrials conglomerate Honeywell International is going on a shopping spree in a bid to create Honeywell 2.0.

A firm backed by David Cote is set to acquire Husky Technologies, a provider of injection-molding equipment, from Platinum Equity for roughly $5 billion including debt.

BP to Sell Stakes in U.S Midstream Assets for $1.5 Billion to Sixth Street

BP said it has agreed to sell interests in its U.S midstream assets to Sixth Street for $1.5 billion, as it continues to look for ways to pay down net debt.

The British energy major said Monday that it would sell stakes in the assets, which are operated by its U.S. onshore oil and gas business BPX in the Permian and Eagle Ford basins.

Tariff-Driven Shifts Continue to Shape Asia's Manufacturing Activity

Factory activity gauges in Asia reflected a divergence across major exporting economies, as worries over U.S. tariffs continued to cause shifts in supply chains.

The latest set of S&P Global purchasing managers indexes showed that goods producers in export powerhouses South Korea and Taiwan flagged deteriorating demand last month, but Southeast Asian countries like Vietnam and Thailand recorded a pickup in new orders.

BOE Expected to Slow Pace of Rate Cuts, But Not End the Sequence

The Bank of England is expected to leave its key interest rate unchanged Thursday, slowing rather than ending a series of cuts begun more than a year ago as a divided group of policymakers seeks to balance a cooling jobs market with an uptick in inflation.

The central bank last lowered its key rate to 4% from 4.25% in August, and then left it unchanged in September. From August 2024, the BOE began to ease the restraints it had placed on economic activity every other meeting, as inflation moderated following a surge in 2022. Policymakers described the series of quarter-point cuts every three months as "careful and gradual."

Swiss Inflation Declines as SNB Mulls Negative Rates

Annual inflation in Switzerland crept down closer to zero last month, as policymakers at the Swiss National Bank consider whether to take interest rates into negative territory at their meeting next month.

Consumer prices were 0.1% higher in October than the same month of last year, down from the 0.2% rate of September, Switzerland's statistics agency said Monday.

How the U.S. Economy Has Defied Doomsday Predictions on Tariffs

When President Trump announced sweeping tariffs in April, economists predicted surging inflation and raised the odds of a recession. Companies and consumers stockpiled to get ahead of price rises. Those worries now seem overblown.

Inflation, while too high, is lower than forecasts. And the economy continues to grow despite the steepest tariffs in almost a century.

Europe's Role Reversal: The Problem Economies Are Now Further North

The European debt crisis of the early 2010s created an image of a continent cleaved in two: The fiscally responsible core countries led by Germany versus the spendthrift southern periphery of Portugal, Italy, Greece and Spain-disdainfully dubbed PIGS.

Source : morningstar

Risk Warnings and Disclaimers

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Glendon

Cryptocurrency

Technical Analysis

Bitcoin's monthly chart has recently exhibited a rare pattern marked by significant market indecision. The October candlestick presented an enormous price range between $103,600 and $126,000, catching both bulls and bears off guard. However, the month closed with a modest decline of only 3.8%. This wide price movement followed by a close near the month's opening price has been referred to as an "indecision candlestick" among analysts.

Is Bitcoin Gathering Strength or Losing Momentum?

Some analysts view Bitcoin's current outlook as a potential bottom formation process. Since the start of 2023, the largest cryptocurrency has shown a gradual uptrend, differing from past sharp peak formations. Historically, Bitcoin peaks have often ended with sharp and short-lived rises, but now the situation may indicate a calm accumulation of strength. However, the element of indecision complicates the picture. This indecision is evident at the critical trendline combining the all-time highs of 2017 and 2021. Despite expectations of dominant buyers at these levels, market hesitation is significant.

Additionally, the monthly MACD indicator's histogram reveals a weakening of bullish momentum. As the indicator reduces peaks above the zero line, it suggests a decrease in upward momentum. The new price peak seen in October was not confirmed by the MACD, recalling the warnings from the 2021 peak divergence.

Persistent Uncertainty Despite Macro Support

The uncertain portrayal of Bitcoin is further highlighted by global developments. The interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve and improving trade relations between Washington and Beijing would typically boost risk appetite. However, investors' cautious stance has weakened bullish expectations. Meanwhile, signals of recovery from the prolonged decline in the US Dollar Index (DXY) are increasing pressure on Bitcoin. Past instances of DXY strengthening have resulted in selling pressure across the cryptocurrency market.

The technical outlook suggests a weak scenario for an upward trend unless Bitcoin surpasses $116,000. Otherwise, the likelihood of a price pullback towards $100,000 is strengthening. Analysts agree that for the rising trend to continue, buyers need to regain control.