Oil Nudges Higher Ahead of Looming Russia Sanctions Deadline

Commodity

Summary:

Oil prices inched higher as markets braced for imminent U.S. sanctions on Rosneft and Lukoil, disrupting Russian crude flows. EU considers further curbs while geopolitical tensions add a modest risk premium.

Oil edged up as investors weighed the fallout from US sanctions on Russia’s Rosneft PJSC and Lukoil PJSC that are set to take effect on Friday, while the European Union explores more measures to squeeze Moscow.

Brent traded near $64 a barrel after declining more than 2% on Wednesday, the most in a week, and West Texas Intermediate approached $60. US penalties on the Russian oil giants have already upended crude flows, most notably to India, and forced Lukoil to seek buyers for its international assets.

Oil Nudges Higher Ahead of Looming Russia Sanctions Deadline_1

Oil is still heading for a yearly loss on expectations for a surplus as OPEC+ and other producers ramp up output, though recent geopolitical tensions have added some risk premium to prices. Russian fuel exports in the first half of November fell to the lowest since the invasion of Ukraine due to attacks on the country’s refining infrastructure and US sanctions.

Suitors are lining up to acquire various parts of Lukoil’s international business following the penalties. Exxon Mobil Corp. officials met with Iraqi Oil Minister Hayyan Abdul Ghani on Wednesday to discuss the Russian company’s stake in the West West Qurna 2 field, which accounts for 10% of Iraqi production.

Meanwhile, the EU is exploring more curbs on entities enabling Russia’s shadow fleet of tankers transporting oil in a further effort to disrupt Moscow’s ability to fund its war against Ukraine. The US penalties on Rosneft and Lukoil are also part of a fresh bid to end the conflict.

Source: Bloomberg

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Warren Takunda

Cryptocurrency

Key takeaway:

BTC derivatives metrics show traders taking precautions, but the data suggests traders are not reaching distressed levels yet.

Bitcoin ETF outflows and tech sector weakness keep sentiment subdued, reducing confidence that Bitcoin can hold above $89,000.

Bitcoin retested the $89,000 level on Wednesday after an unsuccessful attempt to recover $93,500 in the previous day’s trading session. The move surprised traders and led to $144 million in liquidations from leveraged bullish BTC positions. Regardless of the drivers behind the correction, Bitcoin derivatives markets showed stability, suggesting a bullish setup. Bitcoin Futures Traders Refuse to Capitulate Even as BTC Price Drops to $89K_1

Bitcoin Futures Traders Refuse to Capitulate Even as BTC Price Drops to $89K_1

Bitcoin 30-day futures annualized premium. Source: laevitas.ch

Bitcoin’s monthly futures premium held near 4% above spot markets on Wednesday, slightly below the 5% level commonly viewed as neutral. Some analysts argued the metric briefly turned negative as Bitcoin traded under $89,200 on Tuesday, but aggregated figures from major exchanges indicate otherwise. A discount in futures contracts typically signals excessive confidence from bears.

Bitcoin traders stay cautious on downside risk, yet panic remains absent

To assess whether retail traders were more heavily affected by the decline, it is useful to examine perpetual futures. These contracts tend to mirror spot markets closely but rely on a funding rate to balance leverage. Under usual conditions, buyers (longs) pay between 6% and 12% annualized to maintain positions, while readings below that range point to a bearish backdrop. Bitcoin Futures Traders Refuse to Capitulate Even as BTC Price Drops to $89K_2

Bitcoin Futures Traders Refuse to Capitulate Even as BTC Price Drops to $89K_2

Bitcoin perpetual futures annualized funding rate. Source: laevitas.ch

The BTC perpetual futures funding rate stood near 4% on Wednesday, in line with the average of the past two weeks. Although this level still reflects a bearish stance, there are no signs of panic or excessive confidence from bears. The weakness appears backward-looking, as Bitcoin has been trending lower since reaching its all-time high on Oct. 6. Bitcoin Futures Traders Refuse to Capitulate Even as BTC Price Drops to $89K_3

Bitcoin Futures Traders Refuse to Capitulate Even as BTC Price Drops to $89K_3

BTC 30-day options delta skew (put-call) at Deribit. Source: laevitas.ch

The BTC options delta skew remained close to 11% over the past week, signaling that traders have not materially adjusted their risk outlook. Caution persists, as put (sell) options continue to trade above the neutral 6% premium relative to call (buy) options. This indicates that whales and market makers remain uneasy about downside exposure, though current levels are far from extreme stress.

Traders’ sentiment has been pressured by five consecutive sessions of net outflows from spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs). More than $2.26 billion has exited these products, generating steady sell pressure as market makers typically distribute execution throughout the trading day. While notable, the figure represents less than 2% of the overall Bitcoin ETF market. Bitcoin Futures Traders Refuse to Capitulate Even as BTC Price Drops to $89K_4

Bitcoin Futures Traders Refuse to Capitulate Even as BTC Price Drops to $89K_4

Bitcoin/USD vs. tech companies. Source: TradingView / Cointelegraph

Some of the world’s largest tech companies have fallen 19% or more over the past 30 days, including Oracle (ORCL US), Ubiquiti (UI US), Oklo (OKLO US) and Roblox (RBLX US). The shift toward risk-off positioning is not limited to cryptocurrencies and also reflects concerns about weakness in the US job market. Segments deemed riskier, particularly those related to artificial intelligence infrastructure, have faced the sharpest losses.

Additional pressure stems from the consumer sector, which has felt the impact of the US government shutdown that lasted until Nov. 12. Retailer Target (TGT US) cut its full-year profit outlook on Wednesday and warned of a softer holiday season as the affordability squeeze persists. Inflation remains a significant concern, as it restricts the US Federal Reserve’s capacity to lower interest rates.

Regardless of Nvidia’s upcoming quarterly results, some analysts have questioned the “nature of some of Nvidia’s AI investments in its own customers,” according to Yahoo Finance. What has driven investors away from Bitcoin’s digital-gold narrative is still uncertain, but at this stage, the probability of BTC reclaiming $95,000 is closely tied to an improvement in macroeconomic conditions.

Source: Cointelegrapah

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Glendon

Commodity

Economic

In its latest short term energy outlook (STEO), which was released on November 12, the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) increased its West Texas Intermediate (WTI) spot average price forecast for 2025 and 2026.

According to this STEO, the EIA now sees the WTI spot price averaging $65.15 per barrel in 2025 and $51.26 per barrel in 2026. In its previous STEO, which was released in October, the EIA projected that the WTI spot price would average $65.00 per barrel in 2025 and $48.50 per barrel in 2026. The EIA's September STEO forecast that the WTI spot price average would come in at $64.16 per barrel this year and $47.77 per barrel next year.

A quarterly breakdown included in the EIA's latest STEO projected that the WTI spot price will average $58.65 per barrel in the fourth quarter of 2025, $50.30 per barrel in the first quarter of next year, $50.68 per barrel in the second quarter, and $52.00 per barrel across the third and fourth quarters of 2026.

The EIA's October STEO saw the WTI spot price averaging $58.05 per barrel in the fourth quarter of next year, $47.97 per barrel in the first quarter of next year, $48.33 per barrel in the second quarter, $48.68 per barrel in the third quarter, and $49.00 per barrel in the fourth quarter of 2026.

In its September STEO, the EIA projected that the WTI spot price would come in at $65.14 per barrel in the third quarter of 2025, $55.41 per barrel in the fourth quarter, $45.97 per barrel in the first quarter of next year, $46.33 per barrel in the second quarter, $48.68 per barrel in the third quarter, and $50.00 per barrel in the fourth quarter of 2026.

The EIA's latest STEO showed that the WTI spot price averaged $65.78 per barrel in the third quarter, $64.63 per barrel in the second quarter, and $71.85 per barrel in the first quarter. This STEO also highlighted that the WTI spot price averaged $76.60 per barrel overall in 2024.

In a research note sent to Rigzone by Natasha Kaneva, the head of global commodities strategy at J.P. Morgan, on November 13, J.P. Morgan projected that the WTI crude oil price will average $62 per barrel in 2025 and $53 per barrel in 2026. In that note, J.P. Morgan forecast that the commodity will come in at $57 per barrel in the fourth quarter of this year, $51 per barrel in the first quarter of next year, $53 per barrel across the second and third quarters, and $56 per barrel in the fourth quarter of 2026.

In a report sent to Rigzone by the Standard Chartered team on November 12, Standard Chartered forecast that the NYMEX WTI basis nearby future crude oil price will average $65.40 per barrel in 2025 and $59.90 per barrel in 2026. Standard Chartered projected in that report that the commodity will come in at $61.50 per barrel in the fourth quarter of 2025, $58.50 per barrel in the first quarter of next year, $59.50 per barrel in the second quarter, $60.50 per barrel in the third quarter, and $61.00 per barrel in the fourth quarter of 2026. Standard Chartered also projected in this report that the commodity will average $63.50 per barrel in 2027.

BMI projected that the front month WTI crude price will average $65.00 per barrel in 2025 and $64.00 per barrel in 2026 back in a BMI report sent to Rigzone by the Fitch Group on October 24. BMI is a Fitch Solutions Company, that report highlighted.

Source: Rigzone

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Adam

Commodity

Market Overview

Oil prices inched higher after a sharp 2.1% decline, as traders balanced rising geopolitical tensions with fresh signs of tightening U.S. supply. Markets briefly slipped on concerns that a potential easing of international frictions could release additional crude into an already well-supplied global system, where offshore storage remains elevated and output quotas have increased.

However, sentiment shifted after the EIA reported a 3.4 million-barrel draw, far above expectations of 603,000 barrels, reflecting strong refining activity and export demand. Gasoline and distillate builds signaled softer consumption, while investors await policy deadlines that could influence flows from major producers.

Natural Gas Price Forecast

Natural Gas (NG) Price Chart

Natural gas is holding within a well-defined ascending channel, with price rebounding sharply from the mid-channel support near $4.24. The 4h candles show steady higher lows since late October, keeping the broader trend biased upward despite short pullbacks.

Price is currently hovering near $4.52, just beneath the resistance band around $4.67, where recent rejection wicks appeared. The 20-EMA remains above the 50-EMA, signaling steady short-term momentum, while the RSI has climbed back toward 60 without showing divergence.

A clean break above $4.67 opens the next leg toward $4.82–$4.90, whereas failure to hold above $4.45 risks a slide back toward the channel floor near $4.30.

WTI Oil Price Forecast

WTI Price Chart

WTI Crude Oil is tightening inside a symmetrical triangle, with price holding near $59.40 as volatility continues to compress. The descending trendline from $61.47 is still capping every bounce, while the rising base from $57.36 has been respected for nearly a month.

Recent candles show small bodies and shallow wicks, reflecting reduced conviction on both sides. The 20-EMA is flattening and the 200-EMA sits overhead, keeping momentum neutral. RSI remains near 45, offering no divergence but confirming the current consolidation.

A close above $60.84 would signal an early breakout, while a drop below $58.69 risks a move toward $57.36.

Brent Oil Price Forecast

WTI Price Chart

Brent crude is coiling inside a narrowing symmetrical triangle, with price hovering near $63.70 as traders wait for a clear break. The chart shows a series of higher lows holding above $63.08, while every push upward continues to stall near $65.21 — the upper boundary that has capped momentum for most of November.

The 20-EMA and 50-EMA are flattening, signaling a market caught in balance rather than trend. RSI sits in the mid-40s, showing neither exhaustion nor strength.

A decisive close above $64.80 would suggest buyers gaining control, opening room toward $65.21 and $66.73. Failure to break higher risks a slide back toward $63.08, where the rising trendline becomes the final support before $61.97.

Source: fxempire

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Gerik

Economic

Cryptocurrency

Massive Capital Flight Reflects Investor Panic

The iShares Bitcoin Trust (IBIT), BlackRock’s flagship spot Bitcoin ETF, experienced its worst daily capital outflow to date, shedding $523 million on November 18. This marked the fifth consecutive day of net negative flows, highlighting a sharp reversal of sentiment in the digital asset market. The exodus of funds coincided with a steep decline in Bitcoin’s price, which has plunged nearly 30% since its historic peak in October and recently fell below $91,000 its lowest level since April.

This massive outflow represents a causal reaction to Bitcoin’s technical breakdown, triggering broad sell-offs not just from retail holders but also institutional investors who had previously viewed ETFs as a safer, regulated vehicle for crypto exposure.

Broad Crypto Market Weakness Amplifies Outflows

The selloff was not confined to Bitcoin. Other major cryptocurrencies followed suit: Ether and Dogecoin each lost around 3%, while Cardano dropped 2.2%. The entire crypto sector remains under pressure following a major leveraged liquidation event on October 10, which wiped out nearly $19 billion in capital. Since then, investor confidence has eroded, and liquidity has tightened.

The correlation between falling asset prices and ETF redemptions became especially visible when Bitcoin breached a key technical level on November 18, rendering all 12 spot Bitcoin ETFs in the U.S. collectively unprofitable. More than $3 billion in total outflows have been recorded across these funds in November alone, with BlackRock’s IBIT accounting for almost $2 billion of that.

From Record Inflows to Sudden Reversals

The abrupt shift in investor sentiment contrasts sharply with the optimism that surrounded IBIT’s launch in January 2024. At its peak, IBIT had attracted $26 billion in net inflows for the year, pushing its assets under management above $72 billion and positioning it as the world’s largest spot Bitcoin ETF.

However, the recent streak of redemptions has sparked concern. Strategists like Dilin Wu from Pepperstone highlight that the combination of ETF outflows and selling pressure from long-term holders is tightening liquidity and putting downward pressure on prices. This points to a negative feedback loop, where falling prices accelerate fund outflows, which in turn intensify the decline.

Hedging Activity Signals Deeper Caution

Investor anxiety is becoming more visible in derivatives markets. According to Sean Dawson, head of research at Derive.xyz, a large number of traders are now purchasing downside protection betting on Bitcoin falling to $80,000 or lower by December 26. This hedging trend indicates a widespread expectation of further downside, especially in light of uncertain macroeconomic conditions.

Persistent concerns about the health of the U.S. labor market and a now-uncertain outlook for a Fed rate cut in December are undermining risk appetite. Dawson emphasizes that with the odds of rate cuts looking like “a coin toss,” macro conditions are offering little reason for traders to hold onto bullish crypto positions through year-end.

The record-breaking outflow from BlackRock’s Bitcoin ETF is a stark indicator of how quickly sentiment can sour in the crypto market. As Bitcoin’s price collapses under technical and macroeconomic pressure, institutional investors are retreating from once-popular ETF products, raising questions about the sustainability of previous inflow momentum. With volatility expected to remain high and hedging behavior on the rise, the crypto market may face a protracted period of instability unless sentiment or fundamentals shift decisively.

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Justin

Forex

Economic

Swiss watch exports fell for a third month as US President Donald Trump's trade tariffs continued to weigh on the industry.

Watch exports fell 4.4% in October from a year earlier to 2.2 billion Swiss francs ($2.7 billion), the Federation of the Swiss Watch Industry said Thursday. Exports to the US — the largest market — slumped 47%. China, though, grew for a second month as exports rose 13%.

Tariffs have been the dominant narrative in the Swiss watch industry since Trump imposed a 39% levy on Switzerland — higher than the European Union and other developed economies — that went into effect on Aug. 7.

Watchmakers and other Swiss exporters finally got some good news last week when the US said it would cut the tariff to 15% — though there is no specific date for the new agreement to take effect.

Many producers had rushed to build up inventory in July to avoid the new levies, which left watchmakers controlled by the likes of Richemont, Swatch Group AG and LVMH, as well as independents including Audemars Piguet, Patek Philippe and Rolex SA, facing diminished margins in their key market.

Manufacturers of watches, machines and precision instruments were among sectors hit hardest by the 39% levy, according to Switzerland's central bank, but the impact has extended beyond them with Switzerland's overall exports to the US also retreating in October.

Speaking on the day the tariff reduction was announced, Breitling AG Chief Executive Officer Georges Kern said he welcomed the cut, though he said the industry wanted to see the original levy of 2% reinstated. Swiss-made watches do not compete with domestic production or jeopardize jobs in the US, he added.

"The Swiss watch industry is further an important employer in the US, both for repair services and retail operations," he said in an interview.

Prices for lower-valued watches rose in October, though that was partially offset by a sharp 7% decline for watches priced at over 3,000 francs, the Federation of the Swiss Watch Industry said.

Source: Bloomberg Europe

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Gerik

Political

Russia-Ukraine Conflict

Secret Diplomacy Stirs Political Shockwaves

Amid ongoing hostilities, Ukraine was blindsided by media reports this week suggesting the United States and Russia have quietly formulated a new peace proposal to end the war without Ukrainian input. According to leaks first reported by Axios and later echoed by major outlets like the Financial Times and Reuters, the alleged 28-point plan includes controversial elements such as Ukraine ceding effective control of its eastern Donbas region, halving its military, and surrendering access to specific weapon systems.

While the White House has neither confirmed nor denied the existence of this specific plan, Secretary of State Marco Rubio acknowledged that Washington is “developing a list of potential ideas” for a negotiated settlement, emphasizing the need for “difficult but necessary concessions” from both sides. This suggests a correlation between U.S. urgency to end the war and its willingness to explore bold diplomatic pathways even ones that might compromise Ukrainian sovereignty.

Ukraine’s Exclusion Sparks Outcry and Uncertainty

One of the most controversial aspects of the reports is that Kyiv was reportedly not involved in the drafting of the proposed framework. Ukrainian officials admitted they had only received vague “signals” from Washington about peace ideas but were not active participants in crafting the proposals.

President Volodymyr Zelenskyy, while publicly expressing support for U.S.-led peace efforts, notably stated that only President Trump has the influence necessary to end the war. However, Zelenskyy did not confirm endorsement of the reported 28-point plan. First Deputy Foreign Minister Serhii Kyslytsia appeared more critical, dismissing such ideas as unrealistic narratives manufactured by Moscow. This disconnect between diplomatic fronts and internal sentiments highlights a growing strain within Ukraine’s strategic alliances.

Concessions Under Scrutiny

Among the most alarming alleged conditions is the possibility that Russia could assume administrative control over Donbas while formally leasing the land from Ukraine an arrangement likened to a sovereignty-for-stability tradeoff. Other provisions reportedly include a 50% reduction in Ukraine’s armed forces and an abandonment of long-range weapon systems.

The causal implication of such a framework is a dramatic weakening of Ukraine’s defensive posture, which could embolden Russia in future conflicts. Analysts at the Institute for the Study of War (ISW) warned the plan “would amount to Ukraine’s full capitulation” and create conditions favorable for renewed Russian aggression, with no reciprocal territorial or military compromises on Moscow’s side.

Europe Reacts with Alarm

European Union leaders have expressed concern about the reports, especially regarding the apparent exclusion of Ukraine and other regional stakeholders from the process. EU foreign policy chief Kaja Kallas stated, “For any plan to work, it needs to have Ukrainians and Europeans on board.” Her remarks reinforce the correlated diplomatic risk of a bilateral peace deal undermining multilateral alliances and fragmenting the Western front on Ukraine.

The EU’s position is particularly significant given Europe’s central role in sanctions enforcement, humanitarian aid, and military support. A peace plan perceived as US–Russia-driven could erode trust and strain transatlantic coordination.

Ukraine Caught Between Dependency and Autonomy

With U.S. military and financial support still critical to Ukraine’s war effort but showing signs of slowdown Kyiv finds itself in a delicate strategic position. On one hand, it must maintain close alignment with Washington to ensure continued aid. On the other, it risks losing agency over its future if left out of high-stakes negotiations.

Zelenskyy’s openness to “any meaningful formats” signals flexibility but also desperation. Ukraine’s current geopolitical vulnerability means it may be forced to accept compromises to avoid diplomatic isolation or aid reductions an uncomfortable reality that adds further pressure on the country’s leadership.

The emergence of a secretive U.S.–Russia peace framework, particularly one allegedly crafted without Ukraine’s involvement, marks a potentially pivotal shift in the trajectory of the war. While the plan remains unconfirmed, its reported terms have already sparked fierce backlash and strategic anxiety across Kyiv and its European allies. As discussions progress, Ukraine must navigate the perilous balance between maintaining sovereignty and securing international support while the broader world watches closely for signs of how this conflict, and the alliances behind it, may evolve.