Oil News: Market Stalls Between 50- and 200-Day Averages, Volatility Ahead

Commodity

Summary:

WTI trades between key 50- and 200-day averages, with $65.30 as breakout resistance and $64.09 as support. Geopolitical uncertainty and sanctions cloud outlook despite bullish inventory and demand signals.

Oil Prices Hold Steady as Traders Eye Moving Averages, Geopolitics, and Inventories

Daily Light Crude Oil Futures

Crude oil futures are inching higher in Thursday trading, but price action remains confined within yesterday’s range, pointing to indecision among traders. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) is finding support near its 200-day moving average at $64.09, while resistance is building around the 50-day moving average at $65.30—two critical technical levels that could dictate the next breakout.

A sustained move above $65.30 could open the door for a test of the pivot level at $67.08. On the downside, a drop through $64.09 may expose $63.64 and $62.69, with the latter potentially triggering a sharper downside extension.

Potential Trump-Putin Meeting Complicates Oil Prices Forecast

WTI and Brent futures found support early Thursday after steep losses in the prior session, which marked five straight days of declines. A key driver behind recent price pressure has been U.S. President Donald Trump’s remarks about “great progress” in negotiations with Russia, raising speculation that potential sanctions could be eased.

Reports from the Kremlin now confirm that Trump and Russian President Vladimir Putin are set to meet in the coming days. This has sparked uncertainty over the timing and severity of possible secondary sanctions—particularly those targeting Russian oil exports.

Adding to market jitters, the U.S. announced a 25% tariff on Indian goods effective August 28, citing New Delhi’s continued Russian oil purchases. Trump also signaled that more tariffs on Chinese imports could follow, adding another layer of geopolitical risk to crude demand forecasts.

Saudi Price Hike and Chinese Imports Offer Fundamental Support

On the fundamentals front, bullish signals are emerging. Saudi Arabia raised its official selling prices for Asia for a second straight month, underscoring tight physical markets and strong demand. In China, July crude oil imports declined 5.4% month-on-month but were still 11.5% higher than a year earlier, supporting expectations for continued robust refining activity.

Meanwhile, U.S. inventory data added another pillar of support. The Energy Information Administration reported a 3 million-barrel draw in crude stocks last week—well above the expected 591,000-barrel drop.

WTI Outlook Hinges on Technical Levels and Sanction Clarity

Despite signs of stabilization, crude remains in a precarious spot. Geopolitical developments—particularly around the Trump-Putin summit and U.S. sanctions—continue to overshadow supportive fundamentals like inventory draws and Saudi pricing strength.

Forecast: Unless WTI can sustain a breakout above $65.30, further downside risk remains. The broader tone stays cautious, with traders awaiting clearer policy signals before betting on a sustained rally.

Source: fxempire

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James Whitman

Economic

Americans' longer-term inflation outlook deteriorated in July even as households boosted their views on the current and future state of their respective financial situations, according to data released on Thursday by the New York Federal Reserve.

In its latest Survey of Consumer Expectations, the regional Fed bank said the expected level of inflation five years from now stood at 2.9% in July, rising from 2.6% in the prior month and the highest reading since March. Meanwhile, expected inflation a year from now rose to 3.1% from 3% in June, while three-year-ahead expected inflation held steady at 3%.The rise in longer-run expectations, coming in what had been a short period of ebbing expectations, may get the attention of policymakers who are trying to understand how President Donald Trump's aggressive tariff increases will affect the outlook.

The increases in import taxes are widely expected to push up inflation, with some data already showing that is happening. But there are big questions as to whether the increase will be a one-off impact or something more persistent.

Some U.S. central bank officials believe the hit will be a one-time event, and they favor an interest rate cut to offset rising risks to the job market. But most Fed officials worry there is a risk the long rollout and rapid shift in tariffs will create more lasting inflation, which is why they are more reluctant to cut rates.

Fed officials closely watch longer-run inflation expectations and have cited the relative stability of that data to buttress their confidence that currently elevated price pressures will eventually return to around the central bank's 2% target.

In its report on Thursday, the New York Fed found that home prices were expected to rise 3% on a year-ahead basis, while expected future inflation levels across a range of other measures were mixed.

The report said labor market views also were mixed in July and the expectation that unemployment will be higher a year from now hit its lowest level since January.

Households in July said credit is harder to get but will be easier to obtain a year from now. Survey respondents also said their current and expected financial situations improved in July compared to June.

Source: Reuters

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Adam

Stocks

Economic

Risk-on sentiment was on full display since the start of this week, as optimism around the US technology boom driven by Artificial Intelligence (AI) once again overshadowed more worrisome global developments on tariffs and growth.

AI optimism triggered another bullish impulsive move on US equities

On Wednesday, 6 August, U.S. equities rallied on news that OpenAI—the creator of ChatGPT and a leading force in the ongoing AI boom—is considering a stock sale that could value the company at $500 billion, a significant leap from its current $300 billion valuation.

Meanwhile, President Trump’s announcement of a proposed 100% tariff on semiconductor imports was largely shrugged off by investors. The impact was softened by incentives: U.S. corporations could be exempt from the levy if they commit to reshoring production. Apple Inc. was cited as a model example.

The S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 extended their short-term bullish momentum that began on Monday, 4 August, posting intraday gains of 0.7% and 1.3%, respectively. The Dow Jones Industrial Average underperformed slightly with a modest 0.2% gain.

Asian markets followed the positive sentiment today, with bullish momentum persisting. S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 E-mini futures advanced a further 0.7% by the end of the Asia trading session.

Let’s now decipher the US Nasdaq 100 CFD Index from a technical analysis perspective and construct a medium-term (multi-week) trading set-up.

Nasdaq 100 Technical: Eyeing a new fresh all-time high, supported by momentum and flattening US Treasury yield curve_1

Fig. 1: US Nasdaq 100 CFD Index medium-term trend as of 7 Aug 2025

Nasdaq 100 Technical: Eyeing a new fresh all-time high, supported by momentum and flattening US Treasury yield curve_2

Fig. 2: Nasdaq 100 major trend with S&P 500 momentum/S&P 500 relative strength & US Treasury yield curve as of 6 Aug 2025

Preferred trend bias (1-3 weeks)

The minor corrective decline of -4.4% from 31 July 2025 high to 1 August 2025 low is likely to have ended. The US Nasdaq 100 CFD Index is now in the process of shaping a potential bullish impulsive up move sequence within its medium-term uptrend phase.

Bullish bias with key medium-term pivotal support at 22,945 for the next medium-term resistances to come in at 23,820 and 24,164/24,220 (Fibonacci extension cluster and upper boundary of a medium-term ascending channel in place since 19 June 2025 low) (see Fig. 1).

Key elements

Price actions of the US Nasdaq 100 CFD Index have reintegrated above and retested the 20-day moving average on Wednesday, 6 August 2025, indicating the potential start of another bullish impulsive up move sequence.

The 4-hour MACD trend indicator of the US Nasdaq 100 has just trended upwards above its centreline, which suggests the potential start of a new medium-term (multi-week) uptrend phase.

The S&P 500 Momentum factor exchange-traded fund (ETF) has continued to outperform the S&P 500 ETF since the end of March 2025. Based on past observations, this momentum outperformance has supported the medium-term and major uptrend phases of the US Nasdaq 100 CFD Index (see Fig. 2).

The US Treasury yield curve (10-year yield of the US Treasury note minus the 2-year yield of the US Treasury note) has flattened since early April 2025. This observation suggests falling US interest rates, which directly increase bond prices and returns in the short run. However, higher bond prices mean lower yields and lower returns for bonds in the future, which in turn, drive investors into the US stock market. An indirect medium-term positive driver to support further potential upside in the US Nasdaq 100 CFD Index (see Fig. 2).

Alternative trend bias (1 to 3 weeks)

Failure to hold the 22,945 key support invalidates the bullish tone to open scope for another corrective decline to expose the next medium-term supports at 22,670 and 22,410 (also close to the 50-day moving average).

Source: marketpulse

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Warren Takunda

Economic

Central Bank

The Bank of England has warned that rising food prices could drive inflation to 4% as it voted for a fifth cut in interest rates in a year, amid mounting concerns about the strength of the UK economy.

In one of its closest decisions since its independence more than 25 years ago, the Bank’s monetary policy committee (MPC) voted by 5-4 to cut its key base rate by a quarter- point to 4%.

The cut, taking borrowing costs to the lowest level since March 2023, was widely expected in financial markets. However, the decision was a close call, with the rate-setting panel for the first time in history holding two votes before reaching its verdict.

Andrew Bailey, the Bank’s governor, said: “We’ve cut interest rates today, but it was a finely balanced decision. Interest rates are still on a downward path, but any future rate cuts will need to be made gradually and carefully.”

City investors reacted to the decision by sending the pound higher on foreign exchanges, after Bailey warned that mounting inflation risks could delay further rate cuts. “I do think the path continues to be down … [But] the path has become more uncertain because of what we’re seeing,” he said.

The chancellor, Rachel Reeves, welcomed the cut, which will ease some of the financial pressure on borrowers. Pressure is also mounting on the government over its management of the economy, and speculation is swirling about tax rises in her autumn budget.

Ministers have sought to claim credit for the Bank’s rate cuts since its first reduction last August, with borrowing costs now down from a peak of 5.25%.

“The stability we have brought to the public finances through our plan for change has helped make this [rate cut] possible,” Reeves said on Thursday.

However, critics say the chancellor’s tax-raising autumn budget has added to the pressure on businesses and households amid global uncertainty from Donald Trump’s trade war.

In a blow to the government, Threadneedle Street said tax rises were contributing to rising inflation and unemployment as it sounded the alarm over the country’s weak growth prospects.

Publishing updated forecasts, the MPC singled out fast-rising food prices as it warned that food price inflation was on track to reach 5.5% before the end of the year. It attributed much of the rise to global factors, including increasingly extreme weather events hitting cocoa and coffee harvests, highlighting the dangers from the climate emergency.

However, it also pointed to “material” rises in employment costs and new charges for recycling packaging, both driven by the government, that were being passed on to shoppers by UK supermarkets.

“In addition to global agricultural commodity prices, domestic labour costs are currently an important driver of food price inflation,” the Bank said.

Business leaders had warned that Reeves’s £25bn increase in employer national insurance contributions (NICs) and a 6.7% rise in the “national living wage” from April would force them to cut jobs and put up prices.

Official figures show unemployment has crept higher in recent months, while the economy shrank in April and May. Inflation has also risen by more than expected, reaching 3.6% in June.

Facing double-sided risk to the UK economy from weak growth yet mounting inflationary pressures, the split MPC decision in favour of cutting rates was swung by the external economist Alan Taylor.

The independent MPC member, who has repeatedly backed deeper cuts in borrowing costs, had first voted for a half-point reduction before joining the narrow majority – including Bailey – supporting a quarter-point cut.

Exposing tensions at the heart of Threadneedle Street, the four other members – including the Bank’s chief economist, Huw Pill, and one of its deputy governors, Clare Lombardelli – voted to keep rates unchanged.

Inflation has fallen back substantially in the past two and a half years from a peak of more than 11% in late 2022 after Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. That progress has allowed the Bank to cut rates. However, it said lingering inflationary pressures could delay future rate cuts.

“The MPC judges that the upside risks around medium-term inflationary pressures have moved slightly higher since May,” it said.

Source: Theguardian

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James Whitman

Economic

Key points:

● US to announce new tariff rates for semiconductors, pharmaceuticals soon

● Trump's higher tariffs kicked in on Thursday

● Lutnick outlines exemption from chips duties

U.S. Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick said on Thursday he expects the country to collect $50 billion a month in tariff revenues or more - up from $30 billion last month - as higher levies on imports from dozens of countries kick in.

"And then you're going to get the semiconductors, you're going to get pharmaceuticals, you're going to get all sorts of additional tariff money coming in," Lutnick said in an interview with Fox Business Network.

U.S. President Donald Trump's higher tariffs on imports from dozens of countries took effect on Thursday, raising the average U.S. import duty to its highest in a century, with countries facing tariffs of 10% to 50%.

Trump on Wednesday also announced plans to levy a tariff of about 100% on imported semiconductor chips unless manufacturers commit to produce in America, as well as a small tariff on pharmaceutical imports that would rise to 250% over time.

Details of those sectoral tariffs are expected in coming weeks after the Commerce Department completes investigations into the impact of those imports on U.S. national security.

Lutnick told Fox Business Network that companies could win exemptions from the expected semiconductor tariff if they filed plans to build plants in the United States, and those plans were overseen by an auditor.

"His objective is to get semiconductor manufacturing done here," he said, predicting that the initiative would result in some $1 trillion in investment to bolster domestic manufacturing.

Other exemptions have already been agreed, including with the European Union, which said its agreement to accept a 15% tariff on most EU exports includes chips, and with Japan, which has said the United States agreed not to give it a worse rate than other countries.

The push to boost domestic chip manufacturing is not new.

Congress created a $52.7 billion semiconductor manufacturing and research subsidy program in 2022 under former President Joe Biden, and all five leading-edge semiconductor firms agreed last year to locate chip factories in the U.S.

Last year the department said the U.S. produced about 12% of semiconductor chips globally, down from 40% in 1990.

Lutnick, asked about separate talks underway with China on extending a tariff truce that is due to end on August 12, said he felt an agreement was possible.

"I think we're going to leave that to the trade team and to the president to make those decisions, but it feels likely that they're going to come to an agreement and extend that for another 90 days, but I'll leave it to that team."

Source: Reuters

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Damon

Central Bank

Federal Reserve Governor Christopher Waller is emerging as a top candidate to serve as the central bank's chair among President Donald Trump's team, Bloomberg News reported on Thursday, citing people familiar with the matter.

Trump has repeatedly criticized Fed Chair Jerome Powell for not cutting interest rates, and while he has backed off threats to try to oust Powell before his term ends on May 15, has accelerated the search for a replacement.

Waller argued for an interest-rate cut at the Fed's July meeting, citing his worries about labor market deterioration, and dissented when the majority decided to leave short-term borrowing costs unchanged.

Waller, who was appointed to the Fed board by Trump in 2020, has said he would accept the job of Fed chair if offered.

Separately, the White House is interviewing candidates to fill the soon-to-be-open seat on the Fed board vacated by Governor Adriana Kugler.

Source: Yahoo Finance

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Adam

Commodity

Silver Holding Firm as Fed Bets and Tariff Turmoil Drive Safe-Haven Flow

Silver prices are tracking higher, riding the coattails of renewed safe-haven demand sparked by aggressive U.S. trade policy and rising expectations for Federal Reserve rate cuts. While gold remains the headline mover, silver’s correlation to the same macro forces—and its dual industrial-hedge appeal—makes it an essential trade in the current risk-off mood.

At 11:20 GMT, XAG/USD is trading $38.44, up $0.61 or +1.62%.

On Thursday, silver cleared a short-term pivot at $37.87, establishing a new base of support. This breakout follows several failed tests of resistance and signals a fresh push by bulls. A confirmed hold above this level opens the door to challenge the long-term resistance at $39.53, a 14-year high. If $37.87 fails, downside risk targets the 50-day moving average at $36.90, with secondary support at $36.21.

Fed Rate Cut Odds Soar—What That Means for Silver

Markets are now pricing in a 93% chance of a Fed rate cut in September, up sharply from just 48% last week, according to CME FedWatch data. The catalyst: dovish commentary from key Fed figures and signs of economic strain, particularly following President Trump’s announcement of wide-ranging tariffs. These include levies from 10% to 50% on multiple countries and a 100% tariff on semiconductors not produced domestically.

This aggressive trade stance has rattled the U.S. dollar, with the Dollar Index (DXY) falling to a 1½-week low at 98.00. As a non-yielding asset priced in dollars, silver tends to benefit from both falling yields and a weaker greenback—making it attractive to global buyers.

Gold’s Rally Provides a Strong Tailwind for Silver

Daily Gold (XAU/USD)

Gold’s surge to $3,397.58—driven by safe-haven demand and central bank dovishness—adds indirect fuel to silver. While gold holds the 50-day moving average at $3,347.60, silver is benefiting from spillover buying as traders seek relative value. Silver’s industrial side could also find support if lower rates eventually stimulate production, keeping silver demand resilient.

Silver Price Forecast: Eyes on $39.53 with Support at $37.87

Daily Silver (XAG/USD)

As long as silver holds above $37.87, the bias remains to the upside, with momentum favoring a test of $39.53. However, failure to hold this level could send prices down to $36.90, where the 50-day moving average provides the next technical floor.

With the Fed leaning dovish and geopolitical tensions feeding safe-haven appetite, silver remains supported—but the path higher hinges on holding that $37.87 pivot.

Traders should stay alert for any daily close below the 50-day moving average as an early sign of exhaustion. Until then, dips remain buyable within this bullish structure.