Oil News: Crude Oil Futures Test 200-Day Average as Geopolitics Lift Outlook

Commodity

Summary:

Crude oil futures tested the 200-day average near \$63 as Ukraine’s refinery strikes, Russian export risks, and possible U.S. sanctions lifted the geopolitical premium, offsetting OPEC+ output plans and China’s stockpiling.

Oil Futures Eye Key Resistance Levels

Daily Light Crude Oil Futures

Crude oil futures started the week on firmer ground, with prices testing the 200-day moving average at $63.31. Traders treated the level as resistance last week, but Friday’s bounce off $61.69 has given bulls momentum to attempt a breakout. A sustained push higher would open the door toward last week’s high at $64.08, the 50-day moving average at $64.28, and the long-term pivot at $64.56. On the downside, support sits at $62.77, with stronger protection between $61.45 and $61.12.

At 09:19 GMT, Light Crude Oil Futures are trading $62.82, up $0.13 or +0.21%.

Geopolitics Keeps Oil Traders on Edge

Markets continue to weigh supply risks after Ukraine launched its largest drone assault on Russian energy assets to date, targeting at least 361 facilities and sparking a fire at the Kirishi refinery. The attack followed earlier strikes on Primorsk, Russia’s main crude export terminal with a 1 million bpd capacity. Analysts warn that a shift in Ukraine’s strategy toward energy infrastructure could add sustained upside pressure on oil.

At the political level, President Trump signaled the U.S. could impose fresh sanctions on Russia, but only if NATO allies also cut their purchases. The move underscores the geopolitical leverage energy continues to hold in transatlantic relations.

OPEC+ Output Plans vs. Supply Disruptions

While attacks raise the risk premium, traders must balance it against OPEC+ plans to increase output. Analysts argue that oversupply concerns remain in play, though disruptions to Russian refining and export facilities provide an offset. The geopolitical risk premium is preventing crude from fully reflecting weaker macro signals, including softer U.S. labor data and higher inflation reported last week.

Ukraine Tightens Fuel Import Rules

In parallel, Ukraine announced restrictions on diesel imports from India, citing concerns over Russian-origin crude being blended into supply chains. August imports from India totaled 119,000 tons, 18% of total diesel imports, but new testing requirements will slow inflows. The move adds another wrinkle to regional fuel markets already strained by refinery outages and Russian strikes.

China’s Stockpiling Signals

China’s crude imports remain a swing factor, with August showing a surplus of just over 1 million bpd as intake outpaced refinery demand. The buildup suggests Beijing continues to add to strategic and commercial reserves, even as OPEC+ prepares to bring more supply online. Refiners appear to be positioning for lower price ranges in the $50–60 zone, but imports from sanctioned producers Russia, Iran, and Venezuela remain high.

Market Forecast

With futures pressing against technical resistance and geopolitics driving the risk premium, traders face a tug of war between supply risks and oversupply concerns. A breakout above $63.31 could accelerate momentum toward $64.56, though failure would keep the market rangebound. Sanctions chatter, OPEC+ output decisions, and China’s stockpiling remain the key external drivers this week. Crude remains a headline-sensitive trade, with dips likely supported by both technical levels and geopolitical uncertainty.

Source: fxempire

Risk Warnings and Disclaimers

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Warren Takunda

Cryptocurrency

Key takeaways:

Bitcoin’s weekly close above $115,000 signals bullish strength.

BTC’s bull flag breakout could trigger a rally to $120,000.

Bitcoin may see further upside over the next few days after BTC/USD ended the second week in the green above $115,000, according to analysts.

Why Bitcoin is bullish above $115,000

Bitcoin price completed its second consecutive week of gains on Sunday, 8% above its Aug. 30 low of $107,270, per data from Cointelegraph Markets Pro and TradingView.

Bitcoin reclaimed the crucial level of $115,000, which has capped the price since Aug. 24. Traders Say Bitcoin’s ‘Bullish’ Weekly Close Sets Path for $120K BTC Price_1

Traders Say Bitcoin’s ‘Bullish’ Weekly Close Sets Path for $120K BTC Price_1

BTC/USD weekly chart. Source: Cointelegraph/TradingView

Trader Titan of Crypto noted that $115,000 was the key level to watch on the weekly time frame.

An accompanying chart revealed that this level aligned with the Tenkan, a line in the Ichimoku Cloud indicator that identifies short-term momentum and potential trend changes.

“A confirmed weekly close above it would strongly reinforce the bullish case for #BTC.”BTC/USD weekly chart. Source: Titan of Crypto

Historically, the price breaking above the Tekan often signals a short-term uptrend, especially when the Cloud itself is in the bullish territory and the price trades above it.

Most recently, the BTC/USD pair rallied 44% to the current all-time highs above $124,500 after the price crossed above the Tenkan in late April.

Analyst AlphaBTC said BTC/USD must hold above $115,000, particularly with volatility expected ahead of FOMC this week.

“A tap of $118K is likely at the start of the week.” Traders Say Bitcoin’s ‘Bullish’ Weekly Close Sets Path for $120K BTC Price_3

Traders Say Bitcoin’s ‘Bullish’ Weekly Close Sets Path for $120K BTC Price_4

As Cointelegraph reported, Bitcoin should pay close attention to the $115,000 psychological level going into a key macro week.

BTC price to $120,000 next?

The upcoming FOMC decision on Wednesday, with a 94% chance of a 25 bps rate cut, is a key driver of potential gains for Bitcoin. Lowering interest rates has historically boosted risk assets like BTC, and a dovish tone from Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s speech after the meeting could propel Bitcoin’s price toward $120,000.

From a technical perspective, the BTC/USD pair traded inside a bull flag on the four-hour chart, as shown below.

A four-hour candlestick close above the flag at $115,800 would confirm a bullish breakout, paving the way for a run-up to the technical target of the prevailing chart pattern at $122,000. Such a move would bring the total gains to 6% from the current levels. Traders Say Bitcoin’s ‘Bullish’ Weekly Close Sets Path for $120K BTC Price_5

Traders Say Bitcoin’s ‘Bullish’ Weekly Close Sets Path for $120K BTC Price_5

BTC/USD four-hour chart. Source: Cointelegraph/TradingView

The 50-period and 200-period simple moving averages validated a “golden gross” on Sunday, further reinforcing BTC’s upside potential.

Several analysts project Bitcoin’s short-term rally to $120,000 based on bullish futures data and a potential breakout from an inverse head-and-shoulders pattern.

Analysts like Jelle project a 35% rally to $155,000, citing a bullish signal from the weekly Stochastic RSI. Traders Say Bitcoin’s ‘Bullish’ Weekly Close Sets Path for $120K BTC Price_6

Traders Say Bitcoin’s ‘Bullish’ Weekly Close Sets Path for $120K BTC Price_6

Source: Cointelegraph

Risk Warnings and Disclaimers

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Glendon

Economic

Commodity

A less open global economy threatens to upend President Trump’s plan to kickstart his plan for US energy dominance.

President Trump and his administration have been ardent proponents of US “energy dominance,” or at least as it applies to the production and exports of fossil fuels. However, some of the administration’s other policies have been having deleterious impacts on that goal.

American energy companies thrive in an open and unfettered economic environment — one in which business decisions are made for economically rational reasons, not politicized ones. We have made some great strides in that direction with the lifting of the market-distorting ban on US crude oil exports at the end of 2015 and President Trump’s decision to grant blanket permission for exports of liquefied natural gas (LNG), lifting President Biden’s moratorium on new approvals.

But broadly speaking, the Trump administration has moved toward a less open global economic system, introducing tariffs on friends and foes alike. While he has exempted most oil and gas imports from US tariffs to prevent a price impact on US consumers, it is not at all clear that other countries will refrain from retaliating in ways that undermine US energy commodity exports.

One of the impacts that has already taken place is the scrambling of global LNG trade flows. With the US-China trade war beginning in February, China imposed a punitive 125 percent tariff on US LNG imports. Since those contracts do not have destination clauses, that caused the Chinese recipients to swap out those volumes in exchange for volumes from other suppliers, leading to somewhat less efficient shipping routes.

The signing of the memorandum of understanding for additional volumes of piped gas from Russia via the proposed Power of Siberia 2 pipeline also could represent a big loss for US LNG exports. It may or may not ultimately come to fruition, but if it does, it would move a large tranche of Chinese gas demand growth away from the global LNG market, which is dominated by the US and Qatar, and hand it to Russia.

In a period of heightened tensions with the United States, China sees the piped gas option as beneficial due to not increasing dependency on imports that come by sea or are sourced from the United States. The other major source of demand growth for LNG is India, whose rate of economic growth has accelerated in the last decade past that of a maturing China. But the United States has stoked new trade tensions with India, imposing punitive tariffs because of India’s continuing purchases of Russian oil. It is not yet clear whether this will last over the medium to long term or impact the potential growth of US LNG exports.

On oil, there are also impacts of this policy that severely distort trade patterns. The United States had become a major supplier of crude oil to China, but punitive tariffs in retaliation for Trump’s measures in February have cut Chinese imports of US crude to near-zero over the summer months. Those volumes are going elsewhere, but if much of the world ends up imposing tariffs on US energy commodities, this could become a much larger problem.

The Trump administration has exempted energy commodities from most US import tariffs, but given the United States’ comparative advantages in energy and the availability of alternate sources, that sector will likely be targeted. Apart from the United States, most other countries are not raising tariff barriers against their other trading partners, which could eventually put US oil and gas exports at a competitive disadvantage.

Ironically, one other major impact of Trump’s trade wars is that they have shifted Canada’s focus from the United States. Where it has previously had only a modest capacity to move oil from its major production centers in Alberta to the West Coast, the Canadian government is now scrambling to add new capacity to get it out to destinations other than the United States. Much of that will eventually go to China.

Another example of a negative impact on the US energy sector is the development cost increases in both upstream and midstream segments. Oil and gas development and transportation use large quantities of steel pipes, the overwhelming majority of which are imported. Japan has a US market share of over two-thirds for this. Other steel equipment is sourced from Asia, Europe, and Mexico. Estimates of the overall impact on production costs have been about two percent to five percent, depending on the exact circumstances. Again, with most other producers in the world not having these costs imposed, they gain an advantage over US producers, who will have lower market share and reduced profitability.

US refined product exports — largely to Latin American countries that lack self-sufficiency in refining capacity — also could be impacted. The US exports over $100 billion in refined products annually. The global refining sector is a generally thin-margin business and is likely to undergo another period of consolidation in the coming years. If petroleum product importers impose tariffs to offset US tariffs on other industries, that will put serious pressure on the continued viability of some of those US refineries, giving the advantage to non-tariffed foreign competitors.

Each of the issues here may be of modest significance to the US economy individually, but as a whole, they combine to seriously undercut the notion of US “energy dominance.” The American industry would be a lot better off if we could return to the now-quaint notion of “free markets.”

Source: The National Interest

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Adam

Economic

S&P and Nasdaq futures point higher, while Dow futures slip, as investors gear up for a crucial Federal Reserve interest rate decision later in the week. Facing signs of a labor market slowdown and elevated inflation, the Fed is tipped to slash rates by at least 25 basis points on Wednesday. Elsewhere, American and Chinese negotiators meet in Spain for the second day of discussions over issues like trade and the fate of the U.S. arm of ByteDance’s popular TikTok app.

Futures mixed

U.S. stock futures hovered around both sides of the flatline on Monday ahead of a week filled with major central bank interest rate decisions, including announcements from the Fed, the Bank of Canada, and the Bank of England.

By 03:26 ET (07:26 GMT), the S&P 500 futures contract had risen by 9 points, or 0.1%, Nasdaq 100 futures had gained 29 points, or 0.1%, and Dow futures had slipped by 287 points, or 0.6%.

The main averages on Wall Street were mixed at the end of trading last week, with the tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite logging a new record closing high and the benchmark S&P 500 and blue-chip Dow Jones Industrial Average both edging lower.

Bolstering the Nasdaq were shares in Microsoft, which jumped after the software giant averted a potential heavy antitrust penalty from the European Union by offering a reduced price for its Office service, excluding Teams.

Tesla’s stock price surged as well, fueled in part by the board chair of the electric carmaker saying that CEO Elon Musk was focused on running the company after a several-month stint at the White House.

Traders were also assessing data from the University of Michigan which showed both weakening consumer sentiment in September and ongoing worry among households over a possible tariff-driven spike in inflation.

Fed decision looms large

The Fed will be in the spotlight this week, as markets are now all but certain that the central bank will slash interest rates at the end of its latest two-day gathering on Wednesday.

Underpinned by signs of a softening U.S. labor market, policymakers are widely anticipated to back the first rate cut since an easing cycle was paused in December. Bringing down rates can, in theory, help spur investment and hiring.

However, a reduction can risk pushing up inflationary pressures at the same time. Last week, a monthly U.S. consumer price index reading accelerated slightly due to an uptick in housing and food costs, a potential indication of sticky inflation.

Yet a separate gauge displaying a rise in weekly initial jobless claims likely kept a Fed rate cut on track. There is now a roughly 95% probability that borrowing costs are lowered by 25 basis points, as well as about a 5% chance of a deeper half-point drawdown, according to CME’s FedWatch Tool. The Fed’s target rate currently stands at a range of 4.25% to 4.5%.

"A cooling economy and weakening jobs market will help to dampen inflation tied to tariffs, and the Fed is now in a position to resume loosening policy from ’somewhat restrictive’ territory towards a neutral footing," analysts at ING said in a note.

U.S.-China officials meet in Madrid

U.S. and China officials are set to meet again after reportedly made little progress in the first day of a fresh round discussions on Sunday.

Anticipation for the talks in Madrid has been subdued, particularly around a breakthrough on longstanding trade tensions between the world’s two largest economies.

Observers are instead expecting the negotiations to conclude with an extension to a deadline for short-form video app TikTok -- which is owned by China’s ByteDance -- to divest its U.S. operations. At the moment, if ByteDance does not sell the unit by September 17, TikTok faces a shutdown in the U.S.

Citing a source familiar with the matter, Reuters reported that President Donald Trump is likely to extend the deadline.

Bessent told reporters that both sides would "start again in the morning" after they met for just six hours on Sunday. Meanwhile, China’s embassy in Madrid informed reporters that a concluding news conference could take place on Monday, suggesting that the talks could wrap up soon. Bessent is set to head to London on Tuesday, prior to Trump’s state visit with King Charles later in the week.

China launches probe into U.S. chip policy

Before the start of the negotiations in Spain, China’s Ministry of Commerce opened an anti-discrimination probe into U.S. policy over the trade of chips.

Beijing will be looking into whether Washington has unfairly discriminated against Chinese companies through a number of restrictions -- like export controls -- in recent years. The ministry argued that these moves have been designed to stem China’s development of cutting-edge computing and artificial intelligence capabilities.

A separate investigation was also initiated into suspected dumping of U.S. analog chips in everyday devices like temperature sensors and hearing aids. In a note, analysts at Vital Knowledge said investors should "expect pressure" on Monday in analog chip stocks such as Texas Instruments, Analog Devices, and NXP Semiconductors.

Oil inches up

Oil prices rose, extending recent gains on the back of potential disruptions in Russian supply following Ukrainian drone attacks on Moscow’s energy infrastructure.

At 03:27 ET, Brent futures climbed 0.5% to $67.29 a barrel, and U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude futures rose 0.1% to $62.76 a barrel.

Both contracts gained more than 1% last week as Ukraine stepped up attacks on Russian oil infrastructure, including the largest oil exporting terminal Primorsk and the Kirishinefteorgsintez refinery, one of the two largest refineries in Russia.

The strikes have the potential to take large amounts of Russian oil production offline, and could herald potential supply disruptions, especially for Moscow’s top markets India and China.

Source: Investing

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Risk Warnings and Disclaimers

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Samantha Luan

Economic

Forex

Stocks

Humanoid robots, which have made significant technological advances this year, may be at the precipice of a ChatGPT-like spike in investment and popularity — or at least, that's what many in the industry believe.So-called humanoid robots are artificial intelligence-powered machines designed to resemble humans in appearance and movement, with expected use cases across the industrial and service sectors.Makers of these robots have been working on the technology in the background for years. Now, they say they're ready to unleash the technology into the world."There is a consensus in our industry that the ChatGPT moment for humanoid robots has arrived," Xiong Youjun, general manager at the Beijing Innovation Center for Humanoid Robotics, said during a panel in Singapore on Thursday, alongside other professionals from China's robotics industry.

"This year has been defined as the first year of mass production of humanoid robots," Xiong, chief technology officer and executive director of robotics firm UBTech, said in Mandarin translated by CNBC. He added that there had been rapid progress in both the mechanical bodies and the AI-powered "brains."The original "ChatGPT moment" occurred in late 2022, when OpenAI released its groundbreaking generative AI chatbot to the public, leading to mass adoption of large language models and widespread recognition of their potential.

Tesla's Optimus robot gestures at an unveiling event in Los Angeles, Oct. 10, 2024.

Robotics players hoping to recreate that impact include Tesla's Optimus. Meanwhile, a growing number of humanoid robot start-ups are emerging in China, with companies like Unitree, Galbot, Agibot and UBtech Robotics bringing products to market.While humanoid robots are yet to reach a fraction of the adoption seen with generative AI, many experts do expect the technology to have a transformative impact on the global economy in a matter of years.Meanwhile, robots have begun to appear everywhere, from factories to technology conferences and sporting events.

Humanoids pick up steam

Tesla CEO Elon Musk has said he expects the company to produce 5,000 of its Optimus robots this year, with the technology expected to eventually make up the majority of the EV maker's business.Meanwhile, humanoid robot firms in China say their products are already being used in factories and for commercial services.Speaking on Thursday, Zhao Yuli, chief strategy officer at Galbot, said the start-up had already deployed almost 1,000 robots across different businesses.

Other companies, such as UBTech Robotics and Galbot, have also installed robots in local factories, according to local media reports.According to Zhao, these deployments have come alongside a surge of investor interest and government support in the sector, as well as the maturation of both robotics and generative AI technology.Industry experts noted that this maturation in technology has been on display at a number of conferences and events this year, such as China's World Humanoid Robotics Game, which sees robots compete in practical scenarios.

Galbot won a gold medal in the Robot Skills event after placing first in a pharmaceutical sorting challenge.Improvements in Chinese humanoid robots' motion control have also been on display in recent months at sporting events such as marathons and boxing matches.Guo Yandong, founder and CEO of AI² Robotics, added that improvements in generative AI have also enabled robots to learn on the job rather than rely solely on preset commands, a shift that could expand the uses of humanoids across sectors.

Not so fast

Despite the hype from humanoid robotics companies, however, many experts resist the idea that mass public adoption will occur anytime soon."Humanoids won't arrive all at once in a ChatGPT moment, but slowly enter more and more positions as their capabilities increase," said Reyk Knuhtsen, analyst at SemiAnalysis, an independent research and analysis company specializing in semiconductors and AI. He added that their first uses will be in low-stakes, failure-tolerant tasks.That's not to mention long manufacturing timelines and high costs, which will also slow adoption compared to generative AI, he added.

UBTech humanoid robot is on display during the 27th China Beijing International High-tech Expo at China National Convention Center on May 8, 2025 in Beijing, China.

Even UBTech's Xiong conceded that some hurdles remain for the sector, such as ethical considerations, laws and regulations that need to be addressed.Still, analyst Knuhtsen expects investment in the space to continue as long as the autonomy of the robots continues to improve."The market opportunity for humanoids is enormous, contingent on how well the AI performs ... If the technology works, it has the chance to transform many labor processes around the world," he said.Merrill Lynch analysts recently estimated in a research note that global humanoid robot shipments will reach 18,000 units in 2025 from 2,500 units last year. It also predicts a global robot "population" of 3 billion by 2060.

Source: CNBC

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Michelle

Forex

Economic

India’s exports rose for a second month in August after President Donald Trump’s 50% tariffs took effect, as businesses front-loaded shipments.

The trade deficit narrowed to US$26.49 billion (RM111.39 billion) last month from an eight-month high of US$27.35 billion in July, data released by the Ministry of Commerce and Industry showed Monday. Economists in a Bloomberg survey had predicted a US$24.8 billion deficit for August.

Imports fell 10.1% in August to US$61.59 billion from a year earlier, while exports rose 6.7% to US$35.1 billion.

This is the first trade data since the US slapped a 25% tariff on Indian goods on Aug 7, doubling it 20 days later to punish New Delhi for buying Russian oil. The levies are among the highest in the world and threaten to make Indian exports, especially labour-intensive goods, uncompetitive against regional rivals like Vietnam and Bangladesh.

Businesses advanced their orders before the US tariffs came into effect, with outbound shipments to the US — India’s top export market — reaching US$40.39 billion between April and August, up from US$34.21 billion a year earlier, the data showed.

India-US relations showed some signs of improvement last week as Trump and Prime Minister Narendra Modi pledged to resume trade talks. A trade team from the US will be in New Delhi Monday night, India’s chief negotiator Rajesh Agarwal told reporters at a briefing.

New Delhi is also trying to help exporters expand in newer markets and is pursuing a free trade pact with the European Union with heightened urgency, with the next round of talks set for Oct 6-10.

Commerce Secretary Sunil Barthwal told reporters Monday that India is working to reduce its dependence on certain geographies to limit the impact of supply chain disruptions. The government has also identified about 100 products where India can boost its domestic manufacturing in order to cut reliance on imports, he added.

The data also showed that gold imports rose to US$5.4 billion last month, compared to US$3.9 billion in July, while crude oil imports stood at US$13.2 billion in August, down from US$15.5 billion the previous month.

Source: Theedgemarkets

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Risk Warnings and Disclaimers

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Adam

Stocks

Economic

MARKET WRAPS

Stocks:

European stocks mostly gained Monday, but the FTSE was flat.

Pharmaceutical shares traded lower on concerns grew of an exodus of pharma capital to the U.S. after AstraZeneca said it was pausing a planned expansion at its Cambridge site.

The Federal Reserve's decision on Wednesday is likely to be the main factor driving markets this week.

Investors were betting the central bank will close out the year with three straight rate cuts, amid signs the labor market is softening.

Stocks could slide if policymakers sound more hawkish. But if the Fed does lower rates and signal that more easing is coming, expect a broad market rally.

"Just because stocks are at record highs, does not mean a pullback is imminent," UBS Wealth Management said.

"We expect modest upside between now and the end of the year, and the bull market continuing to gain steam into 2026, as investors have plenty of earnings momentum runway to work with."

Interest-rate announcements from Canada, Japan, Norway and the U.K. are also due this week.

Stocks to Watch

The Atlantic Partnership for Advanced Nuclear Energy will boost investment in U.K. nuclear energy , Hargreaves Lansdown said, adding that small modular reactors looked set to benefit first, with Centrica and X-energy set to build 12 reactors in the north of England.

"Rolls Royce is ahead in small modular reactor space, but it's clear that there's big opportunity ahead for multiple players."

Rheinmetall's acquisition of Naval Vessels Luerssen should be net positive for the group--depending on the price--but the deal does present challenges, J.P.Morgan said.

Shipbuilding can be more risky than Rheinmetall's traditional businesses, with long project timelines and lower margins making it challenging to recover from any cost overruns.

U.S. Markets:

Stocks looked set to edge higher on Monday, although investors appeared reluctant to make any big moves with a Federal Reserve interest-rate decision looming.

Forex:

The euro fell slightly after Fitch downgraded France's credit rating.

Analysts say there's a risk of at least one more downgrade from another ratings agency.

The dollar edged higher ahead of the Fed's policy decision on Wednesday.

Sterling rose to a one-month high against the dollar as interest-rate expectations favor the exchange rate ahead of policy decisions from the BOE and Fed this week.

Bonds:

Anticipated rate cuts by the Fed were unlikely to push 10-year Treasury yields lower, DZ Bank said.

It expected the Trump administration's tariffs to feed into consumer prices, with the 10-year Treasury rising to 4.40% on a three-month horizon.

Citi said demand for long-end Treasurys is expected to remain on the weak side in coming months due to the slow pace of rate cuts anticipated.

Political pressure on the Fed further strengthened its strategists' view, it added.

The 10-year French government bond yield rose after the Fitch rating downgrade for the country.

Commerzbank said there wasn't consensus that OATs would also be downgraded following France's ratings downgrade.

Jefferies stuck to its negative view on French bonds.

Spanish government bond yields traded flat after S&P Global Ratings upgraded Spain's credit rating.

Portuguese government bond yields edged higher after Fitch upgraded the country's credit rating to A from A- with a stable outlook.

Energy:

Oil prices rose as traders weighed rising geopolitical risks against forecasts of a looming global oversupply.

Trump warned he could impose major sanctions on Russia if NATO countries follow suit and halt purchases of Russian oil, while also urging allies to consider tariffs of up to 100% on China and India for their purchases of Moscow's crude.

"Although many European countries have cut Russian supplies, Hungary and Turkey remain key buyers, complicating efforts to fully isolate Russia," MUFG said.

Meanwhile, traders continued to monitor escalating risks from Ukraine's drone attacks on Russian refineries and export terminals, which threaten to disrupt global flows.

Metals:

Gold edged lower amid profit-taking and a firmer dollar, but continued to hover near record highs ahead of a widely expected rate cut by the Fed.

"Markets are pricing in a virtual certainty of the Fed's first rate cut since December 2024," Peak Trading Research said.

Meanwhile, "Powell's commentary will be closely scrutinized for guidance on the Fed's outlook regarding inflation pressures, recent labor market weakness, and potential tariff impacts on monetary policy."

Prices were further supported by strong safe-haven demand due to persistent geopolitical uncertainty, robust central-bank purchases, and sustained inflows into gold-backed ETFs.

EMEA HEADLINES

Orsted Offers Shares at Sharp Discount in Rights Issue

Orsted outlined the terms of its previously announced rights issue as it seeks to raise around $9.4 billion in fresh funds to continue its offshore wind-construction projects.

The Danish renewable-energy company last month said it needed to raise cash as developments in the U.S. wind market have disrupted its plans to sell assets, a situation that has since deteriorated after President Trump's administration ordered the company to halt construction of a U.S. offshore wind farm.

Sainsbury's and JD.com Terminate Talks Over Argos Sale

J Sainsbury said discussions with Chinese online retailer JD.com to purchase its Argos home-retail business fell through.

The U.K. supermarket chain said Sunday that JD.com-one of China's largest retailers-now would only be prepared to agree to revised terms that are unfavorable for Sainsbury's shareholders, stakeholders and employees.

S4 Capital Lowers Top-Line Forecast Again Due to Uncertainty, Tariffs

Martin Sorrell's S4 Capital lowered its full-year forecast for its key top-line metric for the second time in the past three months, citing market uncertainty and volatility triggered in part by U.S. tariffs.

The U.K. digital-advertising company-founded by industry titan and former chief of ad giant WPP Sorrell-on Monday projected like-for-like net revenue would decline by a mid-single percentage digit this year. In June, the company forecast a low single-digit fall and it had expected a flat performance at the start of the year.

GLOBAL NEWS

China Pushes for Trump Visit as High-Stakes Trade Talks Begin

For two months, Chinese diplomats have courted the White House, hoping to lock in a visit by President Trump to China that would grant leader Xi Jinping a significant diplomatic victory, according to people familiar with the matter.

In return, the U.S. administration has straightforward demands, the people said: tangible concessions, or "deliverables," from Beijing on everything from trade to TikTok.

It Was a Failing Temple. Then It Started Offering God's Help in Getting a Visa.

HYDERABAD, India-Devout Hindus often pilgrimage to temples seeking divine intervention in matters of health, wealth and love. One holy place is known for aiding in a more earthly endeavor: securing a visa to go overseas.

For decades, the faithful have flocked to the Chilkur Balaji temple, commonly known as the Visa Temple, in the southern Indian city of Hyderabad to pray for celestial help to study or work in countries like the U.S., U.K., and Australia. Some carry passports to be blessed by priests for an extra serving of good luck.

Investigators Learn More About Suspect in Kirk Shooting

WASHINGTON, Utah-The 22-year-old man accused of killing conservative activist Charlie Kirk isn't cooperating with authorities, but those close to him are, Utah Gov. Spencer Cox said Sunday.

The Republican governor said authorities are interviewing family, friends and acquaintances of Tyler Robinson, who was arrested on suspicion of shooting Kirk at a rally Wednesday at Utah Valley University. Formal charges are expected on Tuesday.

Argentine President Milei Calls His Sister 'the Boss.' Now She's a Liability.

BUENOS AIRES-When Javier Milei became Argentina's president, he chose a former Wall Street banker to run the economy. A Harvard professor took charge of cutting red tape. And a former security minister was entrusted with fighting crime.

But for his most important partner in ruling Argentina, he picked a small vendor of cakes on Instagram-his sister, Karina. Now, the appointment is jeopardizing the future of his plans to remake Argentina's economy, take a chain saw to rampant public spending and raze a political class disdained as corrupt.