Oil Loses Recovery Momentum

Economic

Commodity

Summary:

The price of crude oil was down by about 3% so far this week, having encountered sellers’ resistance at $63 for WTI. A week earlier, the resistance was at $64/bbl.

In early April, oil collapsed due to fears of a global slowdown due to tariffs (less demand) and OPEC+’s intention to raise production (more supply). However, over the last three weeks, we have seen a smooth recovery trend, which has allowed about half of the initial decline to be recovered.

Last week’s US data was also on the sellers’ side. Commercial inventories have risen in 11 of the last 13 weeks, adding a cumulative 31.4 million barrels. Strategic stocks also rose over that time, albeit by a rather modest 2.7 million barrels.

Interestingly, drilling activity has picked up, as the number of oil rigs has recovered to 483 from 480 a fortnight ago in the last couple of weeks.

That said, so far, production has stagnated at 13.5 million bpd. These swings are near record highs, but there has been no upward movement.

While the data changes are not overly dramatic, there are still more factors in favour of a lower oil price as the initial rebound fades.

In our view, the status quo is working against oil now, as the already imposed tariffs and the degree of uncertainty are eating away at confidence and therefore putting pressure on futures.

The longer-term technical picture shows the recovery momentum depleting on the approach to the former strong support line, which promises to make it an equally strong resistance. This picture suggests that without a breakthrough in tariff negotiations, there is a greater chance that oil will go down further, and the latest recovery will only whet the bears’ appetite.

Source: ACTIONFOREX

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Adam

Economic

The White House on Tuesday slammed Amazonfor reportedly planning to display the cost of President Donald Trump’s tariffs next to the total price of products on its site.

“This is a hostile and political act by Amazon,” White House press secretary Karoline Leavitt told reporters.

“Why didn’t Amazon do this when the Biden administration hiked inflation to the highest level in 40 years?” Leavitt asked.

She added, “This is another reason why Americans should buy American.”

Shares of the online retail giant founded by Jeff Bezos dropped more than 2% in premarket trading immediately following the remarks.

An Amazon spokesperson told CNBC later Tuesday morning that the company was only ever considering listing tariff charges on some products for Amazon Haul, its budget-focused shopping section.

“The team that runs our ultra low cost Amazon Haul store has considered listing import charges on certain products,” the spokesperson said. “This was never a consideration for the main Amazon site and nothing has been implemented on any Amazon properties.”

In a follow-up statement, the spokesperson clarified that the plan to show tariff surcharges was “never approved” and is “not going to happen.”

Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick in an X post called Amazon’s statement a “good move.”

The Trump administration’s aggressive swipe came in response to Punchbowl News’ report earlier Tuesday that Amazon will soon show consumers how much of an item’s cost comes from tariffs.

The amount added as a result of tariffs will be displayed right next to each product’s total listed price, a person familiar with the plan told the news outlet.

A reporter in Tuesday’s press briefing asked Leavitt and Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent if they agreed that Amazon’s move is a “crystal-clear demonstration that it’s the American consumer, and not China, who is going to have to pay for these policies.”

Leavitt opted to respond because, she said, she “just got off the phone with the president about Amazon’s announcement.”

Leavitt also said the company’s decision was “not a surprise,” saying Reuters “recently” wrote that Amazon has “partnered with a Chinese propaganda arm.”

She held up a print-out of a Reuters report from December 2021 that Amazon complied with an edict from Beijing’s government that it remove customer reviews and ratings from a book of Chinese President Xi Jinping’s speeches and writings.

Amazon is not the first retailer to put a spotlight on how new tariffs are changing its prices.

China-based fast fashion giants Shein and Temu have both added massive surcharges in recent days. Temu now includes a line on its checkout tally showing an “import charge” that adds around 145% for each item.

Leavitt’s response could signal an emerging rift between Trump and Bezos, who has joined other billionaires and tech leaders in cozying up to the Republican president since he won the 2024 election.

After frequently catching Trump’s ire in years past, Bezos in December expressed optimism about the Republican’s second term, saying he believes Trump has grown calmer and more confident.

The same month, Amazon donated $1 million to Trump’s inaugural fund. Bezos later attended Trump’s inauguration.

Bezos drew further accusations of seeking to court Trump when he forced the Washington Post, which he owns, to restrict its opinion section to publishing only pieces in defense of “personal liberties and free markets.”

But Amazon’s business has come under strain in the face of Trump’s sweeping tariffs plans — especially his 145% duty on China, where up to 70% of Amazon goods are sourced, according to Wedbush Securities.

As Amazon merchants have started hiking prices on a wide array of goods in response to the tariffs, the company has started emailing the sellers to gauge the impact of Trump’s agenda.

Leavitt, after delivering her statement on Amazon, was asked if Bezos is “still a Trump supporter.”

“Look, I will not speak to the president’s relationships with Jeff Bezos, but I will tell you that this is certainly a hostile and political action by Amazon,” she said.

source : cnbc

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Gerik

Economic

Historic Milestones Mark A New Chapter In Vietnam-China Relations

The recent visit to Vietnam by Chinese President and General Secretary Xi Jinping in mid-April 2025 marked a pivotal moment in the evolving relationship between Vietnam and China. As highlighted by Chinese Ambassador Ha Vi, this was President Xi’s first international trip of the year, symbolizing the high priority China places on strengthening bilateral ties. Within one year, the highest leaders of both countries exchanged official visits, signaling unprecedented progress and mutual political commitment.

During the visit, the two nations signed 45 cooperation agreements, setting a new benchmark for comprehensive collaboration. These agreements are expected not only to enhance bilateral relations but also to contribute significantly to regional stability and global prosperity, affirming the strategic depth of the partnership.

Strategic Outcomes And Structural Breakthroughs

Ambassador Ha Vi emphasized that the visit yielded substantial and strategic achievements, many of which represent breakthrough initiatives. Chief among them was the establishment and elevation of the "3+3" Strategic Dialogue Mechanism involving the Ministries of Foreign Affairs, Defense, and Public Security, now upgraded to ministerial-level dialogue.

This development underscores mutual support in political and security spheres and constitutes the world’s first ministerial "3+3" dialogue model. The structural enhancement of dialogue mechanisms between the two nations highlights a deepening trust and a stronger alignment of security priorities.

Infrastructure And Supply Chain Integration

Another major area of advancement is in rail infrastructure cooperation. Initiatives to upgrade and comprehensively connect standard-gauge railway networks between the two countries have been launched. Such projects aim to improve cross-border transport efficiency, lower logistics costs, and reinforce supply chain resilience, strengthening economic linkages at a time of rising global trade uncertainties.

The movement towards physical integration reflects a direct linkage between infrastructure development and trade facilitation, with improved rail connectivity anticipated to catalyze further economic exchanges.

Cultural Exchange: Strengthening "Red Gene" Heritage

Beyond economics and security, cultural ties between Vietnam and China have also been significantly reinforced. Ambassador Ha Vi highlighted the shared revolutionary heritage, termed the "red gene," referencing the mutual communist ideals rooted in historical leadership figures like President Ho Chi Minh.

The deepening of cultural exchanges, including the promotion of the "Red Journey" educational programs for youth, is expected to foster stronger emotional and ideological bonds between the younger generations of both nations. These initiatives show a reinforcing pattern where historical commonalities serve as the foundation for future diplomatic and social cooperation.

Deepening Strategic And Economic Alignment

Looking ahead, Ambassador Ha Vi called for both countries to implement the consensus reached during the leaders’ meeting, aiming to expand comprehensive strategic cooperation to higher quality, broader scopes, and greater depth. Areas identified for future focus include strategic alignment in infrastructure, stabilization of supply chains, and exploring new fields such as artificial intelligence and green development.

There is a strong correspondence between the expansion of bilateral cooperation into emerging sectors and the broader global transition towards sustainable and technological economic models.

Business Cooperation And Investment Opportunities

Vietnam’s political stability and its increasingly close relationship with China make it an attractive destination for Chinese enterprises, according to Ambassador Ha Vi. He underscored that no company desires to invest in a country where bilateral relations are unstable.

The complementary economic structures and geographic proximity of Vietnam and China create mutual advantages. In 2024, bilateral trade exceeded $260 billion, with Vietnamese agricultural products like coffee, fresh coconuts, and especially durians—accounting for over 90% of Vietnam’s total durian exports—gaining immense popularity in the Chinese market.

This trade success indicates a reinforcing pattern where political stability fosters trade expansion, which in turn cements stronger diplomatic ties.

Technology And Environmental Collaboration

The bilateral partnership is also shifting into high-tech areas such as AI, semiconductors, and nuclear energy. These moves signify a deliberate transition from traditional sectors to advanced technology domains, broadening the scope and depth of cooperation.

Environmental issues, particularly pollution and traffic congestion, are another field ripe for collaboration. Ambassador Ha Vi suggested that Vietnam could benefit from China's environmental management experiences, citing the improvement of air quality in Beijing as a successful example. This recommendation illustrates how pragmatic cooperation can emerge from shared urban and environmental challenges.

Tourism Boom Reflects Closer People-To-People Connections

Tourism trends further confirm the strengthening ties. In the first quarter of 2025, over 1.58 million Chinese tourists visited Vietnam, a 78.3% increase year-on-year, making China the largest source of foreign tourists for Vietnam. Conversely, Vietnamese tourism to China has also grown rapidly.

Airlines from both countries are planning to expand flight routes, reinforcing the mutual desire for deeper people-to-people exchanges. The parallel increase in bilateral tourism underscores the vital role of grassroots connections in sustaining and enriching diplomatic relations.

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Warren Takunda

Economic

Cryptocurrency

Key points:

Bitcoin’s most recently-moved supply segment is increasing as higher prices see an influx of “speculative capital.”

“Hot supply” has doubled in just five weeks versus local lows in March.

Active address numbers have yet to mimic a classic bull market comeback.

Bitcoin short-term holders (STHs) are back in the game as a “speculative capital” enters the market.

In an X thread on April 29, onchain analytics firm Glassnode reported a surge in Bitcoin’s so-called “hot capital.”

Bitcoin sees “surge in capital turnover”

New investors are entering the market as BTC price action circles its highest levels in several months.

Glassnode reveals that the sum of coins which last moved up to a week ago has reached its largest figure since early February.

“This metric captures short-term holder activity and is a proxy for speculative capital entering the market,” it explains.

In the past week alone, hot capital has shot up by over 90% to near $40 billion. Since local lows in late March, hot capital has increased by $21.5 billion, a “surge in capital turnover” which underscores a sea change in market sentiment.

“BTC hot capital bottomed at $17.5B on 23 Mar - its lowest level since Dec,” Glassnode summarizes.

“In just 5 weeks, it has added over $21.5B, suggesting a rapid shift from dormancy to speculation among newer market entrants.”

Bitcoin “hot supply” data. Source: Glassnode/X

BTC bull market comeback in progress

As Cointelegraph continues to report, STH investors have recently returned to aggregate profit as price hovers near $95,000.

Analyzing overall network participation, however, Glassnode suggested that a full bull market comeback has not yet taken place.

“Signs of early FOMO are emerging, with the Hot Capital Share ticking higher and profitability metrics like Percent Supply in Profit (86%) and NUPL (0.53) expanding notably,” it wrote in an introduction to its latest “Market Pulse” analysis piece released on April 28.

“However, while on-chain activity such as transfer volume and fees are recovering, daily active addresses remain suppressed, suggesting that full organic network engagement is still rebuilding.”

Bitcoin active addresses (7-day simple moving average). Source: Glassnode

Earlier this week, other sources reported on the potential dangers of “FOMO” when it comes to an enduring BTC price recovery.

Source: Cointelegraph

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Fiona Harper

Cryptocurrency

What to Know:

● Trump Tower Dubai now accepts crypto for real estate purchases.

● Eric Trump confirmed the initiative in partnership with Dar Global.

● Move aims to leverage crypto's potential in Dubai's luxury market.

Trump Tower Dubai to Accept Cryptocurrency Payments

Eric Trump declared that Trump Tower Dubai would now accept cryptocurrency payments for property purchases, taking a substantial step in luxury real estate finance.

This adoption of digital currency highlights an evolving trend in global real estate finance, potentially influencing further integration of cryptocurrencies.

Trump Tower Dubai Partners with Dar Global

The Trump Organisation, in collaboration with Dar Global, introduced cryptocurrency payments for Trump Tower Dubai properties. This initiative is part of their ongoing expansion into the digital finance sector.

Eric Trump, Executive Vice President, Trump Organisation, stated: "Dubai’s real estate market is going to continue to absolutely boom and we’re going to set the kind of new standard in terms of price per square foot and luxury in the market" - source. The partnership sees a $1 billion development on Sheikh Zayed Road, Dubai, signaling a new standard in leveraging digital assets for luxury real estate.

Crypto Payments Expected to Attract Global Wealth

Dubai's acceptance of cryptocurrency in luxury real estate is set to attract global wealth, potentially bolstering the market's growth. High-net-worth individuals could view this as an innovative financial opportunity.

The implementation highlights Dubai's role as a crypto-friendly destination, paving the way for broader adoption in real estate markets elsewhere. Authorities and market observers are watching for changes in investment patterns.

Stablecoins Could Minimize Real Estate Investment Risks

The crypto acceptance in Dubai's real estate echoes past integrations, yet mainstream adoption remains rare. Early adopters often see short-term spikes in usage but long-term growth is gradual.

Experts anticipate that such practices could prompt industry-wide changes as stablecoins continue stabilizing transactions, potentially minimizing risk for large-scale investments.

Source: CryptoSlate

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Gerik

Economic

Short-Term Profit Strategy Overrides Long-Term Trade War Concerns

Chinese refineries are strategically ignoring the broader economic uncertainties stemming from the U.S.-China trade war to seize short-term gains from falling crude oil prices. According to Kpler, a leading tanker tracking firm, China’s crude imports surged in March 2025 to an average of 11 million barrels per day, marking an 18-month high and sharply rising from 8.9 million barrels per day in January. This upward momentum has continued into April, highlighting China's aggressive approach to stockpiling inexpensive oil.

Shifts In Sourcing Strategy Amid Global Price Volatility

Initially, China's increased imports centered on Iranian oil amid concerns over tighter U.S. sanctions. However, following President Donald Trump's tariff threats and rising production from OPEC members, global oil prices plunged to a four-year low. Chinese refiners rapidly shifted tactics, broadening their purchasing efforts to secure a wider range of discounted crude.

The relationship between the escalation of tariffs and China's accelerated crude accumulation is primarily correlative. Tariff risks contribute to broader market volatility, which in turn depresses oil prices, presenting Chinese refiners with an attractive buying window.

Market Projections And Analyst Insights

While Brent crude prices later rebounded to over $65 per barrel by the end of last week, Morgan Stanley warned that persistent downward pressures could pull prices to an average of $62.5 per barrel in the second half of the year.

Giovanni Staunovo, an oil analyst at UBS, emphasized China's extreme sensitivity to price fluctuations, predicting that import volumes in April would likely surpass March's figures. Johannes Rauball from Kpler further noted that China's strategic reserves remain relatively low, suggesting strong import demand will persist regardless of domestic consumption trends.

Operational Adjustments At Chinese Refineries

Despite predictions that a slowing Chinese economy would weaken oil demand in the latter half of the year, current fuel consumption for transportation and aviation remains robust. Emma Li, an analyst specializing in energy markets, revealed that several Chinese refineries have postponed scheduled maintenance to sustain fuel production while profit margins remain attractive due to low feedstock costs.

Official data shows that Chinese refineries processed 14.85 million barrels per day in March 2025, a 0.4% year-on-year increase. Notably, during the first two months of the year, refinery output exceeded the combined total of domestic production and imports by about 30,000 barrels per day, indicating the first drawdown of strategic reserves in 18 months.

Geopolitical Constraints On Iranian Oil Purchases

Although China remains the world’s largest crude importer and a major buyer of oil from sanctioned markets such as Russia, Iran, and Venezuela, tensions have recently impacted Iranian supply routes. After U.S. sanctions targeted a Shandong-based refinery for purchasing Iranian oil, Chinese importers scaled back Iranian crude purchases from a record 1.8 million barrels per day in March to 1.2 million barrels per day in April.

Rauball explained that logistical challenges and caution among independent Chinese refiners have contributed to an increase in crude stocks stranded at sea. Kpler data reveals that approximately 40 million barrels of Iranian oil are currently sitting on 36 vessels, with concentrations near Singapore, the Yellow Sea, and the South China Sea.

Private Refiners' Resilience Amid Sanctions

Despite these hurdles, Chinese private refiners are unlikely to fully retreat from Iranian crude. With razor-thin profit margins, discounted Iranian oil remains essential for their survival. Rauball pointed out that many private refiners operate outside the reach of the U.S. financial system, rendering American sanctions less effective.

In this case, the connection between oil supply chains and financial system autonomy becomes evident. While regulatory risks increase, the strategic importance of low-cost Iranian oil in maintaining refinery profitability leads private players to sustain their engagement, even under external pressure.

Source: Kpler

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Damon

Economic

Trump's multi-front trade war and constant flip-flops on tariffs have upended supply chains, clouded business outlooks and stoked fears of a recession in the U.S. The S&P 500 has lost nearly 8% since his January 20 inauguration.

As Trump completes 100 days in office, here is a look at the winners and losers in the U.S. stock markets:

WINNERS

Data analytics provider Palantir, which works with the Department of Homeland Security, has surged nearly 60% since Trump came into power as the Department of Defense prioritizes a new software acquisition effort to enhance the U.S. military.

Palantir is also partnering with Elon Musk's SpaceX and drone builder Anduril to build key parts of Golden Dome missile defense shield, people familiar with the matter told Reuters. All three companies are founded by entrepreneurs who have been major political supporters of Trump.

Palantir is the top performer on the S&P 500 in Trump's first 100 days as president.

Phil Blancato, CEO of Ladenburg Thalmann Asset Management, said Trump-linked stocks and companies with "a predominantly domestic bias, especially in the manufacturing sector" stand to do quite well under the current administration.

Conservative cable news channel Newsmax, which attracted strong interest from retail investors after its debut on the NYSE on March 31, have advanced more than 60% since the IPO.

Gold miners are also in a bright spot, tracking a surge in the bullion, driven by U.S. policy uncertainty and fears of recession. The world's biggest gold miner Newmont's near 30% surge since January 20 makes its shares among the highest on the S&P 500.

U.S.-listed shares of foreign gold miners like Barrick Gold, Gold Fields and AngloGold Ashanti have also rallied between 20% and 50% since Trump took office.

LOSERS

Shares of U.S. carriers have been battered by Trump's tariffs and softening travel demand, with the S&P 1500 airlines index losing nearly a third of its value since January 20.

Delta Air Lines, American Airlines and Southwest Airlines are among a host of carriers that have withdrawn their annual outlooks. Aviation industry is lobbying the White House for exemptions.

Electric automaker Tesla has dropped 33% since Trump's return to power as investors feared that CEO Elon Musk's involvement in the Department of Government Efficiency could distract his focus from the electric vehicle maker, whose sales continued to fall.