Oil Gains As US-China Tariff Pause Extension Boosts Trade Hopes

China–U.S. Trade War

Summary:

Oil prices rose on Tuesday as the United States and China extended a pause on higher tariffs, easing concerns an escalation of their trade war would disrupt their economies and crimp fuel demand in the world's two largest oil consumers.

Brent crude futuresgained 26 cents, or 0.39%, to $66.89 a barrel by 0015 GMT, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude futuresrose 22 cents, or 0.34%, to $64.18.

U.S. President Donald Trump extended a tariff truce with China by another 90 days, a White House official said on Monday, staving off triple-digit duties on Chinese goods as U.S. retailers prepared for the critical end-of-year holiday season.

This raised hopes that an agreement could be attained between the world's two largest economies, and could help sidestep a virtual trade embargo between them. Tariffs risk slowing down economic growth, which could sap global fuel demand and drag oil prices lower.

Investors are also looking ahead to a meeting between Trump and Russian President Vladimir Putin on August 15 in Alaska to negotiate an end to the war in Ukraine.

The meeting is set amid heightened U.S. pressure on Russia, with the threat of harsher penalties on Russian oil buyers such as China and India if no peace deal is reached that could upset oil trade flows.

"Any peace deal between Russia and Ukraine would end the risk of disruption to Russian oil that has been hovering over the market," ANZ senior commodity strategist Daniel Hynes wrote in a note.

Trump set a deadline of last Friday for Russia to agree to peace in Ukraine or have its oil buyers face secondary sanctions, while pressing India to reduce purchases of Russian oil.

Washington has also been pressing Beijing to stop buying Russian oil, with Trump threatening to impose secondary tariffs on China.

The risk of those sanctions being enacted has receded ahead of the August 15 Trump-Putin meeting.

Also on the radar is U.S. inflation data later in the day, that could hint at the Federal Reserve's interest rate path. Any sign that the central bank may cut rates soon would support crude prices.

Source: Reuters

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Olivia Brooks

Political

Central Bank

The Federal Reserve’s two vice chairs, Michelle Bowman and Philip Jefferson, and Dallas Fed President Lorie Logan are under consideration to serve as chair of the central bank when the position opens next year, according to two administration officials.

Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent, who is running the search, will interview additional candidates in the coming weeks, said the officials, who were granted anonymity to speak candidly about the process. The president is expected to make his final announcement this fall, they said.

Others who remain under consideration include Kevin Hassett, a close economic adviser to Trump, Fed Governor Christopher Waller, economist Marc Sumerlin and former Fed officials Kevin Warsh and James Bullard, the people said.

Last week, Trump nominated Stephen Miran, chair of the White House’s Council of Economic Advisers, to fill a seat on the Fed’s Board of Governors that expires at the end of January. The post opened when Adriana Kugler announced her early departure.

With Miran’s nomination headed to the Senate for confirmation, the Trump team doesn’t feel the need to rush the search for a chair, the officials said.

Bessent will interview all the candidates for chair, and then make a recommendation to the president on a short-list to meet with, the officials said.

Trump, who believes interest rates are too high, has this year directed unrelenting criticism at the Fed — and especially Chair Jerome Powell, whom he picked for the job in 2017.

The Fed’s next policy meeting is scheduled for Sept. 16-17 in Washington.

But Trump’s options for replacing Powell may be more limited than is typical. Fed chairs traditionally leave the central bank when their terms run out. But Powell has declined to say whether he’ll depart in May. If he chooses, he can stay on as a governor until 2028.

That means Trump must either put his intended chair into the seat Miran will hold until January, and promote them come May, or select someone already on the Board of Governors, which includes Bowman and Jefferson.

Any nomination to place an outsider on the board, or to elevate a governor to chair, will require Senate confirmation.

Trump appointed Bowman to the Fed in 2018 and made her vice chair for supervision — the central bank’s top regulator — this year. When the Fed’s rate-setting panel held interest rates steady for a fifth straight time in July, Bowman and Waller dissented in favor of a quarter-percentage-point cut.

Jefferson was appointed to the board by President Joe Biden in 2022 and then appointed vice chair in 2023, also by Biden. He was confirmed each time with broad bipartisan support.

At the time of Jefferson’s first nomination, Hasset, a former colleague at Columbia University, had high praise for him.

“Phil Jefferson is someone I would have been 100% comfortable telling President Trump to nominate to the Federal Reserve,” Hassett said. “He’s exactly the kind of person I want at the Fed.”

Jefferson, who would be the Fed’s first Black chair, has supported the decisions taken this year to hold rates steady.

Logan was selected by directors at the Dallas Fed to take the top job there in 2022. She previously worked at the New York Fed as manager of the Fed’s massive securities portfolio. She has also supported keeping rates unchanged this year, speaking frequently about the need to guard against tariff-driven inflation.

The panel that sets rates, the Federal Open Market Committee, is composed of all seven Fed governors, the president of the New York Fed and, on a rotating basis, four of the remaining 11 regional presidents.

The Dallas president holds a vote in 2026.

Hassett has already spoken with Trump about the chairmanship, and Warsh was considered in 2017 for the role but was passed over for Powell.

Trump also considered Warsh for Treasury secretary in November. Waller has met with the Trump team, which came away impressed with his willingness to move on policy based on forecasting, rather than current data, and his deep knowledge of the Fed system as a whole, Bloomberg News reported last week.

Source: Bloomberg Europe

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Manuel

Cryptocurrency

Trump Media and Technology Group (TMTG) has filed its first amended registration statement with the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) for the Truth Social Bitcoin ETF, advancing plans to enter the fast-growing spot Bitcoin ETF market.

The ETF, to be listed on NYSE Arca under the ticker B.T., will hold Bitcoin (BTC) directly and seek to track the flagship crypto’s market price. Crypto.com will act as the exclusive custodian, prime execution agent and liquidity provider, while Yorkville America Digital will serve as the ETF’s sponsor.

The ETF’s structure allocates 70% of its assets to Bitcoin, with 15% in U.S. Treasury securities and 15% in cash or cash equivalents, aiming to balance exposure to the cryptocurrency with traditional financial instruments

The launch remains subject to SEC approval of both the updated Form S-1 registration and a separate Form 19b-4 listing application. The company has not provided a specific launch date but indicated it expects the fund to go live before year-end.

TMTG — parent of the Truth Social social platform, streaming service Truth+, and fintech brand Truth.Fi — said the ETF forms part of a broader Bitcoin-focused strategy.

The strategy includes building a corporate Bitcoin treasury and expanding into digital asset products through its financial services division. The company has already committed substantial capital to Bitcoin acquisitions this year, positioning itself among the more aggressive corporate entrants into the sector.

If approved, the Truth Social Bitcoin ETF would enter a competitive landscape dominated by heavyweight issuers such as BlackRock, whose spot Bitcoin ETF has drawn billions in inflows since the first U.S. approvals in January and set multiple records.

The ETFs have attracted a mix of institutional and retail investors seeking regulated exposure to Bitcoin without the need for self-custody.

The filing also highlights the political dimension of TMTG’s crypto ambitions. President Donald Trump, the company’s majority shareholder, has made digital assets a policy priority, pledging to roll back what he calls restrictive regulations and promote U.S. leadership in the crypto economy.

A spot Bitcoin ETF tied to a political brand of Trump’s profile would be unprecedented in the market, potentially attracting a distinct investor base but also intensifying public and regulatory scrutiny.

The timing of the filing reflects an environment where spot Bitcoin ETFs are gaining mainstream acceptance and competitive differentiation is becoming critical. While the SEC has approved multiple products this year, new entrants face the challenge of building liquidity and investor trust in a market already served by established issuers.

Source: Cryptoslate

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Golden Gleam

Economic

Commodity

President Donald Trump said Monday imports of gold will not face US tariffs, weighing in after a federal ruling caused chaos and confusion in global bullion markets.

“Gold will not be Tariffed!” Trump posted on social media.

Gold futures traded on New York’s Comex and the global benchmark for spot prices in London were little-changed after Trump’s post. Spot gold pared some losses, though it was still down more than 1.2% on the day.

No formal, updated policy had yet been posted by US agencies as of Monday afternoon.

A White House official suggested last week the administration would issue a new policy clarifying whether gold bars would face import taxes, after US Customs and Border Protection stunned traders by deciding the imports would be subject to duties.

The ruling determined that one-kilogram and 100-ounce gold bars would be subject to Trump’s country-based tariffs that took effect Aug. 7. The move came in the form of a letter that was issued to a Swiss refiner inquiring about gold’s treatment, then posted publicly on the agency’s website.

Had the decision remained in place, it would have had sweeping implications for bullion around the world and potentially for the smooth functioning of the US futures contract. Gold’s role as a financial asset and global currency sets it apart from other commodities such as copper that have been roiled by tariffs.

Traders, analysts and executives across the industry had understood the bars would be exempt from Trump’s so-called “reciprocal” tariffs,” including a 39% levy on goods from Switzerland, a major exporter.

The confusion over the CBP letter had caused US gold futures to surge to a record on Friday, and traders said that shipments were freezing up in response to the shock news.

Bullion markets stabilized later Friday when a White House official told Bloomberg in a written statement that the Trump administration intends to post an executive order in the near future to clarify what it called misinformation about tariffing of gold and other specialty products.

The latest statement adds to a tumultuous year for gold, which has soared to unprecedented levels amid strong buying from central banks and as Trump’s trade war drives haven demand.

Earlier this year, physical flows were upended as traders rushed billions of dollars worth of gold and silver into the US as New York prices traded at large premiums in anticipation of potential tariffs. However, that trade came to a crashing halt after the US included gold and silver in its list of exemptions from the tariffs announced in early April.

Source: Bloomberg Europe

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Manuel

Central Bank

Economic

Japan's deepening political uncertainty risks prolonging policy paralysis that could affect the drafting of next year's budget and the timing of the central bank's next interest rate hike, analysts say, clouding the outlook for the fragile economy.

Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba is facing increased calls from within his ruling Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) to step down and take responsibility for the party's huge defeat in an upper house election in July and a lower house poll last year.

While Ishiba has denied he has any plans to resign, his fading support has triggered inevitable questions about his political future and analysts say a leadership change would likely have implications for the outlook for fiscal and monetary policy.

In a meeting on Friday, lawmakers decided to consider holding a rare leadership race even with the party head Ishiba still presiding. Under LDP rules, such a race would take place if the majority of the party's lawmakers and regional heads agreed to hold one.

But it is uncertain how long it would take for the party to decide, according to lawmakers and government officials familiar with the procedure told Reuters.

That contest could happen in September at the earliest, they say, which would allow the new administration to compile a spending package to cushion the economic blow from U.S. tariffs.

But if the race does not take place in September, it may have to wait until early next year to avoid disrupting the government's drafting of next fiscal year's budget, they say.

"We would not be surprised if the LDP calls for a leadership election in September," UBS analysts said in a research note. "It seems that uncertainties regarding politics are unlikely to resolve soon."

In Japan, the Ministry of Finance collects spending requests from ministries in August and finalises the government's draft budget in late December. The budget must pass parliament in time to take effect from the April start of a new fiscal year.

Failure to pass the budget through parliament would force the government to compile a stop-gap budget, which could hurt the economy by causing delays in expenditure.

Some ruling party lawmakers say there is no choice but for Ishiba to step down to resolve the deadlock.

Having lost control in both houses of parliament, the LDP-led ruling coalition needs opposition party support to pass legislation and budget through parliament. Opposition parties have ruled out forming a coalition unless Ishiba steps down.

"Japan needs a stable coalition government. Otherwise, it's impossible to pursue consistent policies," LDP heavyweight Ken Saito told Reuters last week. "It's best for the LDP to seek a coalition partner under a new leader."

COMPLICATION FOR BOJ

Ishiba's weak political standing and prolonged political uncertainty also complicate the Bank of Japan's decision on how soon to resume interest rate hikes.

While few analysts expect the BOJ to hike rates at its next policy meeting in September, some see a good chance of action in October, December or January next year when more data becomes available on the impact of U.S. tariffs on the economy.

Known as a fiscal hawk, Ishiba has endorsed the central bank's efforts to gradually wean the economy off a decade-long, massive stimulus as inflation remains above its 2% target for well over three years.

But his bitter election defeat has made his administration vulnerable to calls for big spending and loose monetary policy.

Many opposition parties have urged the BOJ to hold off, or go slow, in raising rates and focus on supporting the economy.

If the LDP were to hold a leadership race, the event could put the spotlight on the views of candidates like Sanae Takaichi, a reflationist-minded lawmaker who in the past blasted the idea of interest rate hikes as "stupid."

All this could discourage the BOJ from raising rates in coming months to avoid drawing unwanted political attention.

"All we can say is that we would continue to take appropriate policies to sustainably and stably achieve our 2% inflation target," Governor Kazuo Ueda told a news briefing earlier this month, when asked how the BOJ would respond if political changes lead to fresh demands on monetary policy.

"It's impossible to predict how politics will unfold, which means for the BOJ it's best to take a wait-and-see stance," said a source familiar with the bank's thinking.

Source: Reuters

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Manuel

Political

U.S. President Donald Trump said on Monday he was deploying 800 National Guard troops to Washington and temporarily taking over the city's police department, an extraordinary assertion of presidential power in the nation's capital.

Trump's move, which bypassed the city's elected leaders, was emblematic of his second-term approach, which has seen him wield executive authority in ways with little precedent in modern U.S. history and in defiance of political norms.

The president cast his actions as necessary to "rescue" Washington from a purported wave of lawlessness. Statistics show that violent crime shot up in 2023 but has been rapidly declining since.

"Our capital city has been overtaken by violent gangs and bloodthirsty criminals," Trump told a news conference at the White House.

It is the second time this summer that the Republican president has deployed troops to a Democratically governed city. A federal trial began on Monday in San Francisco on whether Trump violated U.S. law by deploying National Guard troops to Los Angeles in June without the approval of California Governor Gavin Newsom.

And Trump signaled that other major U.S. cities with Democratic leadership could be next, including Chicago, a city that has long been beset by violent crime, although it was down significantly in the first half of the year.

"If we need to, we're going to do the same thing in Chicago, which is a disaster," Trump said at the White House, adding, "Hopefully L.A. is watching."

During Trump's election campaign his law and order platform often had racial undertones. He singled out majority Democratic cities like Baltimore, Chicago and Washington - all cities with large Black populations - when he spoke about rampant crime in urban areas.

Hundreds of officers and agents from more than a dozen federal agencies have fanned out across Washington in recent days. Attorney General Pam Bondi will oversee the police force, Trump said.

The U.S. Army said the National Guard troops would carry out a number of tasks, including "administrative, logistics and physical presence in support of law enforcement." Between 100 and 200 of the troops would be supporting law enforcement at any given time.

The Democratic mayor of Washington, Muriel Bowser, has pushed back on Trump's claims of unchecked violence, noting that violent crime hit its lowest level in more than three decades last year.

Violent crime, including murders, soared in 2023, turning Washington into one of the nation's deadliest cities. However, violent crime dropped 35% in 2024, according to federal data, and it has fallen an additional 26% in the first seven months of 2025, according to city police.

Bowser struck a diplomatic tone at a news conference, saying she and other members of her administration would work with the federal government, even as she again rejected Trump's claim of widespread crime.

While Bowser said the law appeared to give the president broad power to take temporary control of the police force, the city's attorney general, Brian Schwalb, earlier called Trump's actions "unlawful" and said his office was "considering all of our options."

TRUMP RAMPS UP RHETORIC

Over the past week, Trump has intensified his messaging, suggesting he might attempt to strip the city of its local autonomy and implement a full federal takeover.

The District of Columbia operates under the Home Rule Act, which gives Congress ultimate authority but allows residents to elect a mayor and city council.

Trump on Monday invoked a section of the act that allows the president to take over the police force for 30 days when "emergency" conditions exist. Trump said he was declaring a "public safety emergency" in the city.

Trump's own Federal Emergency Management Agency is cutting security funding for the National Capital Region, an area that includes D.C. and parts of Maryland and Virginia. The region will receive $20 million less this year from the federal urban security fund, amounting to a 44% year-on-year cut.

Trump also vowed to remove homeless encampments, without providing details on how or where homeless people would be moved.

The federal government owns much of Washington's parkland, so the Trump administration has legal authority to clear homeless encampments in those areas, as President Joe Biden did while in office. But the federal government cannot force people to move out of the city because they lack shelter, advocates for the homeless said.

The president has broad authority over the 2,700 members of the D.C. National Guard, unlike in states where governors typically hold the power to activate troops.

Guard troops have been dispatched to Washington many times, including in response to the January 6, 2021, attack on the U.S. Capitol by Trump supporters, and during 2020 protests over police brutality.

Source: Reuters

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Manuel

Cryptocurrency

Blockchain developer known as Fede’s Intern confirmed his release from Turkish custody on August 11 after authorities detained him over alleged connections to Tornado Cash.

The developer posted on X that international intervention secured his freedom following a brief detention at Izmir airport.

Turkish police detained the developer upon arrival in Izmir, where he planned to meet with local builders and explore decentralized finance project opportunities.

Authorities cited a case filed by Turkey’s Minister of Internal Affairs accusing him of helping others misuse Ethereum through alleged connections to mixers.

The detention stems from academic research that the developer published on Tornado Cash several years ago, during the period when the mixer’s co-founder, Alexey Pertsev, was arrested.

The research, published under the name “Tutela,” demonstrated methods to deanonymize users of the privacy mixer rather than developing privacy features.

The developer stated: “We never helped anyone engage in illegal activity, it was purely research on mixers and their properties. We didn’t develop privacy features, only code and a paper showing heuristics to deanonymize users.”

International pressure secures release

Friends and associates from the United Arab Emirates, the UK, the US, the European Union, Argentina, and representatives from the Catholic Church contacted senior Turkish officials to request the developer’s release.

He reported: “There was a moment where I believe if a few of them didn’t intervene things might have gone sour.”

The intervention allowed him to retain his phone throughout the detention and avoid transfer to a holding facility pending formal charges.

Turkish attorneys representing the developer continue working on his defense despite his release.

The developer indicated he may return to Turkey to clear his name once legal proceedings advance, citing strong local connections and legal representation.

The case reflects broader tensions surrounding cryptocurrency privacy tools and developer liability.

The developer drew parallels to potential prosecution of software developers for downstream uses of their code, comparing the situation to hypothetically prosecuting Linux creator Linus Torvalds for military applications of the operating system.

Repercussions from the US

MetaMask security lead Taylor Monahan highlighted on X that the impacts of legal decisions in the US impact other jurisdictions.

She stated: “One of the more interesting and unreported downsides of the US’s approach to crypto is the impact it has on other countries and, thus, globally. Countries that often fall somewhere between incompetent, broken, and utterly corrupt.”

Monahan was likely referencing the recent conviction of Tornado Cash developer Roman Storm in the US, who was found guilty of conspiring to operate an unlicensed money transmitting business.

The MetaMask security lead and other crypto advocates have criticized the decision, claiming that open-source software developers can’t be held responsible for its usage.