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Opec+ gathered online on Wednesday to ratify their current group-wide production quotas, ahead of a decision by eight key members at the weekend whether to bolster output again in July.

The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and its partners will leave unchanged their longer-term targets for 2025 and 2026, which underpin its current supply restraints, delegates said after their video conference got underway.

The more market-sensitive discussion on whether to continue their 411,000 barrel-a-day hikes, which have sent prices crashing over the past two months, will be finalised in a video conference on Saturday, delegates said, asking not to be identified as the talks are private.

The sequencing of the meetings underscores how oil quotas for the full 22-nation Opec+ alliance have receded in importance over the past two years, as actual supply adjustments are carried out by sub-group of eight countries, led by Saudi Arabia and Russia.

It was these nations that shattered market expectations on April 3, when they announced their first super-sized hike — triple the volume originally scheduled. The shock move, unveiled just hours after President Donald Trump launched a global trade war, helped send crude futures to a four-year low below US$60 a barrel in the ensuing days, marking a rupture with years of efforts by the coalition to try to shore up prices.

Brent contracts have since stabilised near US$65 as Trump has reversed some of his trade tariffs.

Opec+ delegates have offered a range of explanations for the policy reversal: from satisfying summer fuel demand to punishing over-producing members, and from placating President Trump to recouping lost market share.

In theory, Wednesday’s gathering could have given the Saudis the opportunity to further these last two objectives.

While the eight countries are just over half-way through restoring roughly 2.2 million barrels of output halted since 2023, if they maintain the current accelerated pace of increases, they will have completed that process by October.

If Opec+ were fully committed to regaining market share it could have proposed changing those underlying output quotas during the discussion on Wednesday. Saudi Energy Minister Prince Abdulaziz bin Salman has built a reputation for springing last-minute surprises, but delegates said such moves aren’t on the agenda.

The first meeting on Wednesday was of the Joint Ministerial Monitoring Committee, comprising a selection of Opec+ members that review oil market conditions. It concluded without making any recommendations, delegates said.

That was followed by a gathering of the full 22-country Opec+ group. Finally the 12 core Opec members will hold one of the two obligatory annual check-ins, which tend to be largely administrative affairs.

Ministers’ discussions will include a mechanism for their previously agreed plan to assess baseline production levels for 2027, according to delegates.

Source: Theedgemarkets

Source: kitco

OPEC+ is discussing a mechanism for setting baselines for its 2027 production at a meeting on Wednesday, delegates said, while separate talks due on Saturday could agree a further accelerated oil output hike for July.

The group, which includes the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and allies such as Russia, has been discussing new baselines - production levels from which each member makes cuts or increases - for the last few years.

Baseline issues are controversial because some members such as the United Arab Emirates and Iraq have increased their oil production capacity, pressing the case for higher quotas, while others such as African members have seen declines.

The 22-member group on Wednesday may adopt a mechanism to help establish the baseline assessment for 2027, two of the delegates said. The Wednesday meeting will not change output policy, sources said while the talks were underway.

On Saturday, eight OPEC+ members who are in the process of gradually raising output are set to meet and may agree an output hike for July of 411,000 barrels per day, the same as in May and June, the delegates said.

All sources declined to be identified by name due to the sensitivity of the matter.

OPEC+ has agreed three layers of output cuts since 2022. Two of these are in place until the end of 2026 and one is currently being unwound by the eight members.

The 2027 baselines in theory could feature in production policy when all output cuts currently in place expire.

Oil pricesfell to a four-year low in April below $60 per barrel after OPEC+ said it was accelerating its output hike in May and as U.S. President Donald Trump'stariffsraised concerns of global economic weakness. Since then it has recovered to about $65.

Earlier this month, sources told Reuters that the eight countries, in addition to an output hike for July, may unwind the remainder of the most recent cut by the end of October.

Source: TradingView

Elon Musk is criticizing the centerpiece of President Donald Trump’s legislative agenda, a significant fracture in a partnership that was forged during last year's campaign and was poised to reshape American politics and the federal government.

The billionaire entrepreneur, who supported Trump’s candidacy with at least $250 million and has worked for his administration as a senior adviser, said he was “disappointed” by what the president calls his “big beautiful bill.”

The legislation includes a mix of tax cuts and enhanced immigration enforcement. While speaking to CBS, Musk described it as a “massive spending bill” that increases the federal deficit and “undermines the work” of his Department of Government Efficiency, known as DOGE.

“I think a bill can be big or it could be beautiful,” Musk said. “But I don’t know if it could be both.”

His CBS interview came out Tuesday night. White House officials did not immediately respond to questions. Republicans recently pushed the legislation through the House and are debating it in the Senate.

Musk’s comments come as he steps back from his government work, rededicating himself to companies like the electric automaker Tesla and rocket manufacturer SpaceX. He's also said he'll reduce his political spending, because "I think I’ve done enough.”

At times, he's seemed chastened by his experience working in government. Although he hoped that DOGE would generate $1 trillion in spending cuts, he's fallen far short of that target.

“The federal bureaucracy situation is much worse than I realized,” he told The Washington Post. “I thought there were problems, but it sure is an uphill battle trying to improve things in D.C., to say the least.”

Musk had previously been effusive about the opportunity to reshape Washington. He wore campaign hats in the White House, held his own campaign rallies and talked about excessive spending as an existential crisis.

He was also effusive in his praise of Trump.

“The more I’ve gotten to know President Trump, the more I like the guy," Musk said at one point. "Frankly, I love him.”

Trump repaid the favor, describing Musk as "a truly great American.” When Tesla faced declining sales, he turned the White House driveway into a makeshift showroom to illustrate his support.

It's unclear what, if any, impact that Musk's comments about the bill would have on the legislative debate. During the transition period, he helped whip up opposition to a spending measure as the country stood on the brink of a federal government shutdown.

But Trump remains the dominant figure within the Republican Party, and many lawmakers have been unwilling to cross the president when he applies pressure for his agenda.

Source: Yahoo Finance

An accompanying chart showed increasing buy volume involving the two largest transaction classes typically associated with whale entities. It additionally confirmed $112,000 as the level attracting the highest ask liquidity as of May 27.

Bitcoin order book liquidity data with whale activity. Source: Material Indicators/X

BTC/USD 1-week chart. Source: Cointelegraph/TradingView

His moves have become a market signal of their own, with Wynn taking to X to accuse other market participants of attempting to liquidate him by manipulating price action.

Source: Cointelegraph

Eight core Opec+ producers will meet on 31 May — a day earlier than planned — to decide July output levels, delegates told Argus.

The change has not been formally announced, but several delegates with knowledge of the matter said the new date is confirmed.

Last month, the eight countries — Saudi Arabia, Russia, the UAE, Kuwait, Iraq, Algeria, Oman and Kazakhstan — began unwinding 2.2mn b/d of "voluntary" production cuts that were introduced in late 2023.

They had initially planned to increase their combined output by 137,000 b/d each month from April through to September 2026. But in a surprise move last month, the group opted for a sharper rise of 411,000 b/d for May — three times the planned pace — and agreed to repeat the same increase in June.

The eight countries attributed the larger-than-expected hikes, at least in part, to stronger oil demand over the summer. But delegates told Argus they were also intended to send a message to overproducing members, notably Iraq and Kazakhstan, to improve compliance.

With Ice Brent futures now holding around $65/bl — about $5/bl higher than before the group last met — and overproducing members still showing little sign of better conformity to their pledges, expectations among delegates are building for another 411,000 b/d increase in July. Those expectations were reinforced when UAE energy minister Suhail al-Mazrouei said on 27 May that oil demand could "surprise to the upside".

Before the 31 May meeting, the wider Opec+ group is meeting virtually today to review quota compliance, assess longer-term market trends and address internal matters. One delegate said ministers may begin discussing how to update production baselines for all Opec+ members by 2027 — a process first flagged at the group's meeting in December last year.

The Joint Ministerial Monitoring Committee (JMMC) will meet first, followed by the Opec ministerial conference and the full Opec+ ministerial conference. Opec is required by its statute to hold two ordinary meetings a year, typically in the middle and end of each year. Opec+ has adopted a similar schedule.

Source: Argus Media