Norway Set To Keep Ukraine Aid Steady For Longer

Political

Russia-Ukraine Conflict

Summary:

Norway is likely to keep aid for Ukraine close to current levels beyond next year, a senior opposition lawmaker signaled.

Norway is likely to keep aid for Ukraine close to current levels beyond next year, a senior opposition lawmaker signaled, citing a low chance of peace anytime soon.

Norway, a member of NATO and neighbor of Russia, has earmarked 85 billion kroner ($8.4 billion) in assistance to Ukraine in 2026, according to a draft budget that's being negotiated by the ruling Labor Party and its leftist partners. There's broad parliamentary backing to helping Ukraine.

"We must be prepared for the fact that the support Norway is now providing must be long-lasting," Ine Eriksen Soreide, the head of the parliament's Committee on Foreign Affairs and Defense, said in an interview on Friday.

"There is no reason to imagine that it can be scaled down very soon," said Soreide, a former defense and foreign affairs minister who is set to take over the reins of opposition Conservatives from former premier Erna Solberg in February.

Norway is among the five biggest contributors of donations to Ukraine as a share of its economy, based on data from the Kiel Institute for the World Economy. It has also reaped windfall gains from increased gas and oil exports after sanctions against Russia.

Its aid is disbursed under a so-called Nansen program, with 205 billion kroner of spending planned for 2023 to 2030. So much has already been disbursed that, assuming stable outlays next year, just 10 billion kroner is left for the period from 2027. Still, its politicians have ruled out directly tapping the energy-rich nation's $2.1 trillion sovereign wealth fund — the world's largest — to boost defense spending or aid to Ukraine.

Earlier this month, Finance Minister Jens Stoltenberg rebuffed suggestions that his country become the sole guarantor for a loan of about €140 billion ($162 billion) by the European Union to Ukraine, according to broadcaster NRK. Norway isn't part of the bloc though it has access to the single market through the European Economic Area agreement.

Soreide said her party is urging the government to consider contributing to a potential guarantee mechanism should the EU strike an agreement and invite third countries to join.

She declined to specify any potential increases to Norway's contributions. Her party isn't pushing for any ceiling for Ukraine aid.

There's a need to avoid a situation where "it's primarily northern European countries that contribute," while "it is also important to keep the United States in and engaged in it," Soreide said.

Source: Bloomberg Europe

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Samantha Luan

Forex

Economic

Australian home prices will rise more than previously expected in 2026, thanks to tight supply and resilient demand, according to a Reuters poll of analysts who said a lack of entry-level homes is still among the biggest barriers for first-time buyers.

House prices rose around 40% during the COVID-19 pandemic but fell about 9% when the Reserve Bank of Australia hiked interest rates to combat high inflation.

The central bank's 75 basis points of rate cuts in 2025 have reignited buyer interest, however, pushing the national median home price to a record high of A$872,538 in October.

But with interest rates expected to stay at an over two-year low of 3.60% in the near term, analysts predict national home prices will continue to outrun the country's inflation rate.

The November 13–26 survey of 15 property analysts showed national home prices rising around 8% this year and 6.9% in 2026, up from 5.0% and 5.6% in the previous poll - the largest upgrade this year.

Home prices in Sydney, Melbourne, Adelaide, Brisbane and Perth will rise between 5% and 7% next year.

"It's a resumption of consumer confidence with the interest rate fall, which then leads to a sense of fear of missing out," said Michael Yardney, founder of Metropole, a real estate advisory firm.

"We still haven't got enough properties for all the immigrants and the first-time buyers, so I see strong price growth, especially in the first six months of 2026. Then maybe things will slow a little bit in the second half."

Only two of 11 analysts who answered a separate question expected purchasing affordability for first-time buyers to improve over the coming year.

While existing homeowners reap most of the benefits of rising property values, first-time buyers are being squeezed by a dearth of listings, weak wage growth and tighter borrowing limits.

MEDIAN HOME VALUE

In Australia, the median value of a home is now nearly eight times annual income, and about two-thirds of households own property.

Most respondents cited a shortage of entry-level homes, followed by difficulty saving for a deposit as the most severe barriers for first-time buyers.

"High rents, cost-of-living pressures, and only moderate wage growth will continue to make deposit saving difficult," said Mark Dawson, director at Urbis.

"While elevated construction costs, labour constraints, and longer delivery time frames mean the supply of genuinely entry-level dwellings is unlikely to increase materially in such a short period."

A federal scheme allowing first-time buyers to purchase with a 5% deposit has eased pressure, but analysts warned it risks inflating demand without addressing the underlying shortage of homes.

Meanwhile, the government has pledged to build 1.2 million new homes by 2030.

"To see the 1.2 million homes over the next five years is impossible. It's definitely good to set a target, but we find ourselves in a situation where perhaps even 1.2 million is not going to be enough to meet growth and demand," said Maurice Tapang, senior economist at Housing Industry Association.

Source: Investing

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Adam

Stocks

Global equity funds saw their first weekly outflow in 10 weeks in the week to November 26, as concerns about stretched valuations, particularly in the tech sector, outweighed optimism around expected U.S. interest rate cuts next month.

According to LSEG Lipper data, investors withdrew a net $4.48 billion from global equity funds as they registered their first weekly net sales since September 17.

Investors snap nine-week buying streak in global equity funds_1

Weekly flows into global equity, bond and money market funds in $ million

In the most recent week, investors divested U.S. and European equity funds of $4.56 billion and $1.21 billion, respectively, but invested approximately $170.37 million in Asian equity funds.

Overall, global equities had a volatile November, with fears over stretched tech valuations and a record 43-day U.S. government shutdown weighing on sentiment.

"We continue to view AI as a market driver, but the sector will likely be assessed more selectively, and high valuations of many AI leaders carry disappointment risk," said Vincenzo Vedda, chief investment officer at asset management firm DWS Group.

"For this reason, we remain broadly diversified and see gold as a relative hedge."

Investors snap nine-week buying streak in global equity funds_2

Weekly flows into global equity sector funds in $ million

Inflows in global bond funds, meanwhile, cooled to a 22-week low of $6.77 billion during the week.

Euro-denominated bond funds faced a net $3.58 billion outflow, the first weekly net sales since July 9. Short-term bond funds, however, gained $5.56 billion in a fourth successive week of net purchases.

Investors snap nine-week buying streak in global equity funds_3

Weekly flows into global bond funds in $ million

Investors added $2.54 billion worth of money market funds as they ended a two-week selling trend.

Gold and precious metals commodity funds, meanwhile, stayed popular for a seventh straight week as these funds drew roughly $1.66 billion in weekly inflows.

In emerging markets, investors snapped up $3.34 billion worth of equity funds, the most since July 9. They also added a marginal $5.98 million worth of bond funds, data for a combined 28,793 funds showed.

Source: reuters

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Gerik

Economic

India’s Resilience Amid Global Trade Pressures

India is demonstrating exceptional economic strength, even as external challenges mount. With the implementation of 50% tariffs from the United States among the highest imposed on any major economy analysts feared a cooling in India’s growth. However, the latest GDP figures for Q3 (July–September 2025) show a robust 8.2% year-on-year increase, well above the 7.4% consensus forecast. This follows a 7.8% expansion in Q2, placing India among the world’s fastest-growing large economies.

Bond markets responded swiftly: the yield on India’s 10-year government bond rose by 4 basis points to 6.50% following the release of the data, signaling a positive reappraisal of the growth outlook by investors.

Policy Response: Modi Government’s Proactive Stimulus Strategy

A major contributor to this outperformance is the Indian government's proactive fiscal stance. In response to rising global uncertainties and declining U.S. orders particularly concerning given that the U.S. is India’s largest export market Prime Minister Narendra Modi introduced a large-scale stimulus plan focused on stimulating domestic demand.

Key among these efforts was a major cut to the Goods and Services Tax (GST) in September, timed to encourage consumer spending during India’s festive season. Since private consumption makes up nearly 60% of the nation’s GDP, preserving and stimulating household spending is a critical driver of economic expansion. This fiscal maneuver represents a direct cause-and-effect strategy to shield the domestic economy from external shocks.

Sectoral Drivers: Manufacturing and Services Lead the Way

Beyond consumer spending, India’s growth has been powered by strong industrial performance. The manufacturing sector grew 9.1% year-on-year in Q3, while services also contributed significantly. According to Shumita Deveshwar of GlobalData TS Lombard, this dual-engine performance exceeded expectations, though she cautioned that the momentum might ease in the coming quarters as base effects normalize and trade headwinds persist.

This surge in manufacturing growth reflects both domestic reforms and the gradual shift of global supply chains into India, which has been positioning itself as a China-plus-one manufacturing destination.

Export Slowdown and External Balances Under Pressure

Despite this robust growth, trade indicators point to emerging pressures. According to the IMF, India’s merchandise exports could decline by 5.8% in FY2026, falling to $416 billion, partly due to continued delays in reaching a new trade agreement with the U.S. On the other hand, imports are expected to grow 2.4%, reaching $746 billion widening the trade deficit.

This imbalance underscores a correlation, rather than causation, between U.S. tariffs and export contraction. While tariffs are a contributing factor, global demand cycles and exchange rate dynamics also influence trade figures.

Long-Term Outlook: A $5 Trillion Economy Within Reach

The IMF projects India’s real GDP will expand 6.6% in FY2026 and 6.2% in FY2027, with the moderation reflecting global uncertainties rather than domestic weakness. Still, India’s structural fundamentals remain strong: a large, youthful population, expanding digital infrastructure, and resilient financial institutions.

Crucially, if India sustains its current growth momentum, the IMF expects it to cross the $5 trillion GDP threshold by FY2029. This trajectory aligns with New Delhi’s strategic vision to elevate India’s global economic position while bolstering domestic demand-led growth.

India’s recent economic performance illustrates that even amid protectionist pressures and global demand fluctuations, a well-calibrated policy mix can maintain momentum. While the U.S. tariff regime presents a real threat to India’s trade growth, domestic consumption, manufacturing resilience, and strategic government interventions continue to fuel expansion. The challenge now is to convert short-term growth into sustainable development that can weather future global realignments ultimately anchoring India’s ascent to a $5 trillion economy within the decade.

To stay updated on all economic events of today, please check out our Economic calendar

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Adam

Commodity

A theme is emerging as we reach the last trading day of November, risk is back on. Global indices are a sea of green this week, after a bruising first half of the month. Although European and US indices are on track to record a loss for the entire month of November, the scene could be set for a rally in the final weeks of the year. Interestingly, the Philadelphia Semi-Conductor Index is higher in November, as Google’s shares surged by more than 20%, and other tech stocks also recovered. This sector has led financial markets since their low in April, so the fact that semi-conductors are rallying, along with broader market width, could stoke the anticipated ‘Santa rally’.

The gold price is on track to record its fourth monthly gain and is higher by 3% so far this week. Silver is higher by 8%, as Fed rate cut bets ramp up. There is now an 82% of a rate cut from the Fed next month. This is sparking a rally in gold back above $4,000 per ounce, and the gold price is higher by $28 today. The silver price is higher by 1%. There are also gains for the oil price, as the Russia/ Ukraine peace plan remains on hold for the US’s Thanksgiving holiday.

Trading could be more volatile than usual today, as US markets open for half day and liquidity is likely to be thin. Added to this, a disruption on the CME trading exchange, could also affect trading across FX, stocks, commodities and some bonds.

The problem is linked to a cooling issue at one of its data centers. This closure ultimately means that liquidity will be even thinner than usual on the Friday of Thanksgiving. If there is any sensitive market news flow or events, then moves could be exacerbated by liquidity issues, and there could be more volatility as a result.

So far, news flow has not been too disruptive to trade. Donald Trump announced plans to dramatically tighten the US’s immigration system, which appears to be in response to the shooting of two National Guard members outside the White House, has not impacted market sentiment. The President’s post on Truth Social contained little detail, and so it is unlikely to be market moving.

Pound is resilient to Budget fears

Interestingly, the pound is the third best performing currency in the G10 FX space this week. GBP/USD is back above $1.32, it made a high above $1.3260 on Thursday but has given back some of those gains this morning. Interestingly, the pound remains resilient in the face of Budget criticism.

The list of concerns around the UK Budget are stacking up, including fears that the UK is at a tax tipping point, where extra revenue raising measures won’t generate as much as estimated, 2, that taxation measures are too back-dated and potentially threaten the UK's expanded fiscal headroom, 3, that spending pledges are unfair, weighing on business and consumer confidence even more, and 4, that the UK government will need to rely on short-dated debt to raise finance, which could leave UK bonds at the mercy of short term debt markets.

Why are markets so sanguine about UK Budget?

Although UK bonds sold off on Thursday, moves were relatively small. In the past week, UK 10-year Gilts are lower by 8 bps and are outperforming US and European peers. Does the fact that financial markets seem to be welcoming this budget mean that we are missing something? We think that financial markets have been appeased by this Budget because of the focus on building fiscal headroom, and the fact that the fiscal forecasts from the OBR were not as bad as had been feared. However, the Budget is a political disaster for the Chancellor, with YouGov reporting that the public believe it is the second most unfair Budget since 2010, a close second to the mini-Budget in 2022. Economic data backs this up, the Lloyds Business Barometer fell sharply in November to 42. From 50. This suggests that business confidence in the UK remains subdued.

In the Eurozone, weak inflation from France and weaker than expected retail sales from Germany are weighing on the euro, which is at the lows of the day.

Source:xtb

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Gerik

Economic

Stocks

Tech Giants Tap Debt Markets, but Credit Pressure Remains Contained

As Meta Platforms, Alphabet, and other technology leaders ramp up borrowing to finance their artificial intelligence infrastructure and global data center ambitions, market watchers have raised alarms about oversupply and potential spread widening. However, panelists at Bloomberg Intelligence’s credit conference in London argue that these fears are overstated.

Investment-grade spreads have widened by roughly 10 basis points due to what JPMorgan Asset Management’s Iain Stealey termed “temporary indigestion” from the sheer volume of issuance. Yet he emphasized that these companies generate substantial annual earnings and maintain robust balance sheets, reducing credit risk. Issuers like Meta are unlikely to return to markets until late 2026, suggesting that future supply will be more staggered and manageable.

Quality Still Reigns in Credit Markets

Meta and Alphabet’s limited debt profiles are seen as a strength, not a burden. Alphabet, in particular, boasts a credit rating superior to France’s, while Apple and Microsoft should they issue in Europe would be considered among the highest-quality corporate borrowers. Mahesh Bhimalingam of Bloomberg Intelligence noted that whenever such companies do enter the market, they typically trigger strong demand due to their profile and rarity.

This reinforces a cause-and-effect relationship: the AI buildout necessitates more capital, which is increasingly sourced through bond markets but the resulting pressure is eased by the strength of the issuers and market appetite for quality paper.

Credit Outlook for 2026: Carry and Structure Over Speculation

The broader consensus from the conference was that 2026 should remain supportive for credit markets. Ashwin Palta of BNY Investments highlighted that current yields provide attractive compensation for risk, especially when investors move “up in quality.” Lower-rated names are not offering sufficient spread advantage to justify increased risk, prompting a rotation into higher-tier credits and well-structured instruments.

Among the most appealing asset classes discussed were Additional Tier 1 (AT1), Restricted Tier 1, and hybrid securities. AT1 bonds, in particular, have delivered over 10% returns year-to-date, and expectations for continued strong performance are grounded in sound starting fundamentals.

Metro Bank and the Case for Small-Cap Financials

Jackie Ineke of Spring Investments pointed out an unconventional opportunity: the subordinated debt of smaller financial institutions, particularly Metro Bank Holdings Plc. Recently upgraded by Fitch and boosted by deregulatory support from UK Chancellor Rachel Reeves, Metro’s AT1 bonds now carry relatively less perceived risk than some of those issued by larger investment banks. Ineke highlighted its turnaround narrative, asserting that the issuer’s improved profitability outlook and political tailwinds position it as an appealing outlier in the financial credit space.

This contrast underscores a key analytical insight: risk perception in credit is not always aligned with institutional size. The correlation between bond performance and issuer profile is shaped as much by trajectory and context as it is by legacy reputation.

The message from the Bloomberg Intelligence panel is clear: the surge in tech-related debt issuance to fund AI initiatives is not destabilizing the credit market. Instead, it is creating high-grade opportunities for investors and reflecting the strategic capital needs of cash-rich, structurally important firms. With yield curves favoring quality and investor demand remaining strong, 2026 is set to offer continued resilience even as AI reshapes corporate capital flows. The credit market is absorbing the tech sector’s evolution with measured confidence.

Source: Reuters

To stay updated on all economic events of today, please check out our Economic calendar

Risk Warnings and Disclaimers

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Adam

Stocks

U.S. equity funds witnessed their first weekly outflow in six weeks in the week through November 26, as concerns over lofty tech valuations prompted investors to take profits and overshadowed optimism about a possible Federal Reserve rate cut next month.

They divested a net $4.56 billion worth of U.S. equity funds in their first weekly net sales since October 15, LSEG Lipper data showed.

US equity funds see first weekly outflow in six weeks_1

Weekly flows into US equity, bond and money market funds in $ million

The S&P 500 (.SPX), opens new tab has risen more than 3% so far this week on expectations of a Federal Reserve rate cut next month. But investors remain cautious as November has been marked by heightened volatility, driven by concerns over stretched tech valuations and the economic impact of a record 43-day U.S. government shutdown.

U.S. large-cap funds saw a net $144 million weekly outflow following five successive weeks of inflows. Investors also ditched mid-cap and small-cap funds worth a total of $1.69 billion and $885 million, respectively.

Weekly flows into US equity sector funds in $ million

U.S. bond funds remained popular for an eighth straight week as these funds drew approximately $8.6 billion in weekly inflows.

Short-to-intermediate government and treasury funds secured $4.05 billion, the largest amount for a week since September 24. General domestic taxable fixed income funds also had a net $1.59 billion weekly inflow.