North Korea Sending Up to 30,000 Troops to Bolster Russia's Forces

Political

Summary:

There's reason to be highly suspicious of the claims sourced to Ukrainian intelligence...

North Korea is reportedly preparing to triple the number of its troops fighting for Russia along the front lines with Ukraine, sending an additional 25,000 to 30,000 soldiers to assist Russian forces. This is based on an intelligence assessment from Ukrainian officials.

According to CNN, "The troops may arrive in Russia in the coming months, according to the assessment seen by CNN, adding to the 11,000 sent in November who helped repel Ukraine’s incursion into Russia’s Kursk region." The report adds: "Around 4,000 of those North Korean soldiers were killed or injured in the deployment, according to Western officials, yet Pyongyang’s cooperation with Moscow has since bloomed."

But there's reason to be suspicious and skeptical of the report sourced to Ukrainian intelligence as well as Western intelligence officials, which are cited, given the crucial timing.

The claims of this drastic escalation in North Korea's support come within 24 hours after the White House revealed it would be halting key weapons transfers to Kiev, on concerns that Pentagon stockpiles are growing thin.

And so it seems the Ukrainian government wants to desperately get the West's attention, at a moment it is losing a key vital weapons and ammo pipeline.

It was just last month that Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky reiterated his urgent call for joint international action against Russia, Iran and North Korea - or a new 'axis' conspiring against Ukraine.

"Russia is now trying to save Iran's nuclear program – there is no other way to interpret the public signals and non-public activities," Zelensky had said two weeks ago.

"When Iranian Shahed drones – now significantly upgraded – and ballistic missiles from North Korea – also upgraded – kill our people in Ukraine, it is a clear sign that global solidarity and global pressure are not enough," Zelensky said. "We must significantly tighten sanctions."

As for the new intel assessment on the alleged North Korea troop surge, CNN continues:

The Ukrainian assessment seen by CNN says the Russian ministry of defense is capable of providing “needed equipment, weapons and ammunition” with the aim of “further integration to Russian combat units.” The document adds “there is a great possibility” the North Korean troops will be engaged in combat in parts of Russian-occupied Ukraine “to strengthen the Russian contingent, including during the large-scale offensive operations.”

The assessment, from Ukraine’s defense intelligence agency, also says there are signs that Russian military aircraft are being refitted to carry personnel, reflecting the vast undertaking of moving tens of thousands of foreign troops across Russian Siberia, which shares a border with North Korea in its far southwest.

Earlier this week North Korea's state-run media aired footage showing leader Kim Jong-un mourning the deaths of North Korean soldiers, said to be killed while fighting in Russia's war in Ukraine as part of allied forces. The occasion for the memorial footage was the return of the soldiers' remains from Russia, though no details were given as to the number of the deceased being remembered.

This past weekend also marked the first anniversary of the signing of the two countries' "comprehensive strategic partnership" treaty. This served as the 'legal basis' on which the North Korean troop deployment to Russia happened.

Source: Zero Hedge

Risk Warnings and Disclaimers

You understand and acknowledge that there is a high degree of risk involved in trading. Following any strategies or investment methods may lead to potential losses. The content on the site is provided by our contributors and analysts for information purposes only. You are solely responsible for determining whether any trading assets, securities, strategy, or any other product is suitable for investing based on your own investment objectives and financial situation.

Add to Favorites

Glendon

Economic

Commodity

Oil prices were little changed on Friday as a solid job market bolstered the case for the U.S. Federal Reserve keeping interest rates on hold, with investors also awaiting clarity on President Donald Trump's plans for tariffs on various countries.

Brent crude futures rose 1 cent, or 0.01%, to $68.81 a barrel by 0036 GMT, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude firmed 3 cents, or 0.04%, to $67.03.

Trade was thinned by the U.S. Independence Day holiday.

The U.S. labour market receded as a risk when new data on Thursday showed that American firms added a more-than-expected 147,000 jobs in June and the unemployment rate unexpectedly fell to 4.1% - signs the economy remained resilient despite the turbulence and uncertainty over how big tariffs will be.

President Trump said Washington will start sending letters to countries on Friday specifying what tariff rates they will face on goods sent to the United States, a clear shift from earlier pledges to strike scores of individual deals.

Trump told reporters before departing for Iowa on Thursday the letters would be sent to 10 countries at a time, laying out tariff rates of 20% to 30%.

Trump's 90-day pause on higher U.S. tariffs ends on July 9, and several large trading partners have yet to clinch trade deals, including the European Union and Japan.

Keeping prices in check, however, OPEC+, the world's largest group of oil producers, is set to announce an increase of 411,000 barrels per day in production for August as it looks to regain market share, four delegates from the group told Reuters.

The U.S. also imposed sanctions on Thursday against a network that smuggles Iranian oil disguised as Iraqi oil and on a Hezbollah-controlled financial institution, the Treasury Department said.

Barclays on Thursday said it raised its Brent oil price forecast by $6 to $72 per barrel for 2025 and by $10 to $70 a barrel for 2026 on an improved outlook for demand.

Source: Yahoo Finance

To stay updated on all economic events of today, please check out our Economic calendar

Risk Warnings and Disclaimers

Add to Favorites

Blue River

Economic

Technical Analysis

The United States continues to demonstrate why it remains the largest and most powerful economy in the world, consistently surprising markets with its resilience in the past few data releases.

While market participants have been eager to question US strength—especially under President Trump’s “US Exceptionalism” policy, which many feared could backfire—recent economic data continues to challenge that narrative.

Despite ongoing concerns over diplomatic volatility and declining business confidence, the US economy once again delivered upside surprises. The Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP) report, expected at 110K, surprised with a +37K beat, and the more influential ISM Services PMI came in strong—reaffirming underlying economic momentum.

As a result, the US Dollar is regaining its footing. The Dollar Index (DXY) is up approximately 0.35% on the session, and even with an early close ahead of Independence Day, USDJPY surged 1300 pips on the heels of the release.

USDJPY Technical Analysis from the Daily to 1H Charts

USDJPY Daily Chart

USDJPY Daily Chart, July 3, 2025 – Source: TradingView

Overnight, markets perceived some hawkish comments from Bank of Japan’s Takata, who mentioned that the BoJ would still look to resume hikes after a pause – such comments did not do much to add strength to the Yen.

Nonetheless, the longer-term range 142.00 to 146.50 range remains intact, with the pair up 1,350 pips on the session.

It remains notable that 146.00 served many times as the higher resistance level within the range, but two occasions of USD dominance (Potential tariff removals in beginning of May and Iran-Israel War) led to what seemed like breakouts before rejecting the Extreme of Range 147.50 to 148.

Broader USD strength following this morning’s data could bring the pair to such extremes again if the Greenback keeps rebounding from its lows.

USDJPY 4H Chart

USDJPY 4H Chart, July 3, 2025 – Source: TradingView

The latest round trip within the range led to a wick on the Main Range support (last swing low 142.68), followed by a swift rebound, particularly as markets retested the Intermediate Support at 143.55.

Key Moving Averages are still flat on the 4H timeframe, confirming again the strength of the range, which may only lead to actual breakouts when markets start to price in new fundamental change – mostly expected when respective US and Japanese Central Bank policies diverge further.

The RSI moved quite aggressively higher in this morning’s up-move but still had some space before becoming overbought, leaving some margin for manoeuvre for bulls – Let’s take a look closer to spot more zones of interest.

USDJPY 1H Chart

USDJPY 1H Chart, July 3, 2025 – Source: TradingView

On this shorter timeframe, we can observe with more details how volatile but rangebound the price action is in the pair. Although there has been many catalysts for breakouts, the action is still contained.

This morning’s Hourly bar from the data release did close at its highs and has consolidated at its top, a sign of strength for the USD as seen in other currency pairs.

Look at 144.50 as immediate pivot – a break below would retest the lower parts of the range explored in higher timeframes. Sellers will have to show some strength at the current Lower timeframe Resistance 145.00 to regain some edge.

Staying above here leaves the bulls in control, and a failure of sellers to correct prices will hint at a re-entry within the 146.00 to 146.70 Main Resistance Zone

Safe Trades!

Source: ACTIONFOREX

To stay updated on all economic events of today, please check out our Economic calendar

Risk Warnings and Disclaimers

Add to Favorites

Manuel

Commodity

Barclays on Thursday said it raised its Brent oil price forecast by $6 to $72 per barrel for 2025 and by $10 to $70 a barrel for 2026 on an improved outlook for demand.

"Geopolitical tensions have eased as the U.S.-mediated ceasefire between Israel and Iran continues to hold and the risk premium has evaporated, but price action has been reflecting better-than-expected fundamentals, in our view," said Barclays in a note.

Despite an accelerated increase in output from the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and its allies including Russia (OPEC+), global crude oil inventories declined in the second quarter, Barclays said.

The tighter balance outlook is driven by stronger demand growth, weaker non-OPEC supply growth, and the International Energy Agency's (IEA) upward revision of baseline demand estimates, it said.

Barclays raised its outlook for global demand growth by 260,000 barrels per day, with most of that coming from Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) countries, where it said "demand has been coming in stronger than expected".

It now sees U.S. oil demand growing by 130,000 bpd this year, which is 100,000 bpd ahead of its previous estimate following a weather-related demand boost earlier in the year, although it still expects a gradual slowdown in activity.

On the supply side, while OPEC+ will likely continue to phase out its voluntary production cuts at an accelerated pace, the actual output increase likely will continue to lag, Barclays said, pointing to pressure on some OPEC+ producers to curb output to compensate for earlier producing above their quotas.

"Between March and May 2025, OPEC+ target increased by 548 kb/d but the group's output remained largely flat, resulting in better compliance, in aggregate," it said.

Source: Reuters

Risk Warnings and Disclaimers

Add to Favorites

Manuel

Cryptocurrency

BlackRock’s spot Bitcoin exchange-traded fund IBIT has become the asset manager’s third-highest revenue-generating ETF just 18 months after its launch, according to data shared by Bloomberg senior ETF analyst Eric Balchunas.

Strategy Chairman Michael Saylor responded to the milestone by predicting that IBIT will soon become BlackRock’s number one revenue-generating ETF.

The IBIT fund has approximately $76 billion in assets under management and an expense ratio of 0.25%, generating an estimated $191 million in annual revenue.

The revenue places it behind only BlackRock’s iShares Russell 1000 Growth ETF (IWF), which generates around $211 million, and the iShares MSCI EAFE ETF (EFA), which generates roughly $207 million.

A separate Bloomberg News report noted that IBIT is now only $9 billion in assets away from overtaking IWF to become BlackRock’s top revenue-generating ETF out of its lineup of over 1,100 funds.

According to Balchunas:

“Just another insane stat for a 1.5-year-old (literally an infant) ETF.”

IBIT launched in January 2024 alongside other spot Bitcoin ETFs approved by the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission.

Within days of its debut, IBIT became the fastest ETF in history to cross $2 billion in inflows, surpassing traditional market leaders and setting multiple records for first-week subscriptions.

By its six-month mark, the fund had already grown to over $50 billion in assets, reflecting accelerating institutional and retail demand for regulated Bitcoin exposure.

According to the Bloomberg report, IBIT’s performance highlights the growing integration of Bitcoin into traditional portfolios, mirroring the trajectory of gold ETFs over the past two decades.

The product has been widely adopted by financial advisors, corporate treasuries, and hedge funds seeking liquid, regulated exposure to Bitcoin without the complexities of direct custody.

Source: Cryptoslate

Risk Warnings and Disclaimers

Add to Favorites

Manuel

Central Bank

Commodity

Gold dropped after strong US jobs data took the pressure off the Federal Reserve to lower interest rates at the end of this month.

Gold fell as much as 1.4% after trading in a narrow range for most of the day. Payroll numbers came in above analyst expectations, while the unemployment rate was lower than forecast. The dollar rose along with Treasury yields, as traders pared the already slim odds of a cut at the Fed’s July meeting. Higher rates typically weigh on gold, which doesn’t bear interest.

“The big question was the unemployment rate,” said Gregory Faranello, head of US rates trading and strategy for AmeriVet Securities. “The door for July is over and the Fed will take the summer off. The needle for the Fed to move was employment and that gives Fed Chair Powell the room for a ‘wait and see approach’.”

Gold is still up by more than a quarter this year, trading about $170 short of a record set in April. The precious metal has been bolstered by demand for havens as investors grapple with heightened geopolitical and trade tensions. The rally has also been supported by robust central-bank purchases, as well as inflows into bullion-backed exchange-traded funds.

Meanwhile, there are lingering concerns about the US deficit, after President Donald Trump secured a sweeping shift in US domestic policy as the House passed a $3.4 trillion fiscal package.

Investors also continued to monitor progress in US trade negotiations, after Trump said he reached a deal with Vietnam. As his July 9 deadline for higher tariffs approaches, there are signs investors are becoming increasingly less worried by the president’s unpredictable stance on levies given the economy appears resilient for now.

Spot gold fell 0.9% to $3,326.55 an ounce as of 4:24 p.m. in New York. The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index edged up 0.2%%. Silver rose, while palladium and platinum fell.

Source: Bloomberg

Risk Warnings and Disclaimers

Add to Favorites

Manuel

Economic

Forex

The Reserve Bank of New Zealand will leave interest rates unchanged on July 9, a majority of economists polled by Reuters expected, with the median forecast showing just one more 25 basis point cut this year compared with two in a May survey.

After one of the most aggressive tightening cycles in its history to tame inflation, the central bank has lowered rates by 225 basis points since August.

That supported an economy that emerged from recession last year. It grew by 0.8% in the January-March quarter, giving policymakers time to consider the next rate cut.

Although inflation eased to 2.5% in the first quarter, within the RBNZ's 1%–3% target range, uncertainty around medium-term price pressures has increased.

With second-quarter inflation data due on July 21, the central bank is expected to hold off on further easing for now.

A majority of economists, 19 of 27, in a June 30-July 3 Reuters poll expected the RBNZ to hold its official cash rate at 3.25% on July 9. Eight expected a 25 basis point cut.

All major New Zealand banks - ANZ, ASB, BNZ, Kiwibank and Westpac - forecast no change in rates.

Another 25 basis point cut is due by end-September, according to 16 of 22 economists, with half expecting it at the August meeting.

"The data that has come out since the May monetary policy statement has been pretty mixed," said Wesley Tanuvasa, economist at ASB.

"So pause now, see the inflation expectation data. From there, that can help them navigate whether August is a cut or not. Right now, we've priced in a cut for August," he said.

While there is no majority on where rates will end the year, the median forecast shows 3.00% compared with 2.75% in the May poll.

Inflation is expected to average 2.8% this quarter and stay within the RBNZ's target range through at least the end of 2026, according to the poll. It is forecast to average 2.5% in 2025 and 2.1% in 2026.

New Zealand's economy is expected to grow 1.0% this year and 2.4% in 2026, down from 1.2% and 2.5%, respectively, in an April survey, the poll showed.