New Zealand’s Housing Cooldown Challenges Economic Stability and Investor Confidence

GBP/JPY is a very popular pair in Forex trading as it captures both risk-on/risk-off dynamics, geographic trends, and rate differential trends.

The Yen and Sterling have been subject to some strong dynamics over the past month.

In Japan, markets are still concerned with the reckless government spending which the Japanese Prime Minister tried to defend against.

The latest development sees PM Sanae Takaichi and her cabinet approving a ¥21 trillion stimulus package—the largest since the COVID era.

This fiscal dovishness from the new Prime Minister, historically a negative for currency strength, has been heavily priced in since her appointment. Paradoxically, this may force the Bank of Japan to turn more hawkish, potentially hiking rates sooner to protect against a run on the JPY – The next decision is expected on December 18th.

There could still be an intervention from the BoJ which aims at buying back some Yen against other currency reserves.

For the Pound, the initial volatility relative to the recent Budget is turning into a positive trend. Despite not pivoting to full austerity (aiming to cut expenses for a better fiscal balance), the budget is perceived as far from reckless.

While higher income taxes might dampen consumption slightly, the overall fiscal stance has put the GBP in a decent position, making it the 3rd best performer of today's session.

Technically, the pair is at key point. If the current rally extends beyond the 207.00 level, the price action will point directly to a retest of the July 2024 peak.

Let's dive into a multi-timeframe analysis and technical levels for GBP/JPY, a pair that should stay active during the Thanksgiving break.

GBP/JPY Multi-timeframe Technical Analysis

Daily Chart

GBP/JPY Daily Chart, November 26, 2025 – Source: TradingView

The pair has evolved in a one-way tight bull channel since November 5, taking prices to overbought RSI levels.

Nevertheless, overbought doesn't mean top, particularly as the RSI is still tilting upwards, hence momentum backs the ongoing rebound.

One thing to look for on the bigger timeframe is how the market reacts to its entry (or lack thereof) in the 207.00 Resistance:

• Last week, the action stopped at 206.86 which is the level to keep in mind: Closing above would confirm an entry in the Resistance and targets the 208.120 highs.
• Below, it could point more to a double-top action and a reversal.
• Keep in mind that the Bank of Japan may intervene during the Thanksgiving break which may also provide a huge move lower. The issue is that the timing for such is unknown.

Let's dive into the intraday charts.

4H Chart and Technical Levels

GBP/JPY 4H Chart, November 26, 2025 – Source: TradingView

The current 4H Candle forms a doji – pointing to a more hesitant price action.

A potential trading gameplan could be to look at breakout scenarios:

• A 4H close above 207.074 should push further into the resistance zone.
• A push below the 205.526 candle lows hints at further retracement.

Levels to watch for GBPJPY trading:

Support Levels:

• 4H Candle lows 206.50
• Post-Election highs 205.33 – Current pivot
• Higher timeframe Pivot – Current Support 203.00
• Main key Support 199.00 to 200.00
• Mid 2025 Support 195.00 to 196.85

Resistance Levels:

• 207.00 to 208.00 2024 July highs – Current test
• Session highs 207.074
• 208.120 July 2024 highs
• 209.50 to 210.50 May 2008 Extremes

1H Chart

GBP/JPY 1H Chart, November 26, 2025 – Source: TradingView

The shorter timeframe points at further balance as the buying stalls on overbought 1H RSI.

As mentioned, right before, look at whether markets make a push either for the highs or the lows in a breakout scenario.

To avoid fakeouts, a trader can also wait for a 1H or 4H Candle close as confirmation.

In case of a bigger retracement, keep an eye on the Hourly uptrend to see if it holds, implying a buy signal or breaks, implying a sell signal.

Safe Trades!

Source: ACTIONFOREX

China urged the U.S. on Thursday to rein in Japan and prevent any "actions to revive militarism" in an editorial published by the newspaper of the ruling Communist Party, as a war of words with Tokyo grows over the Japanese prime minister's remarks on Taiwan.

The timing of Chinese President Xi Jinping's call with U.S. President Donald Trump on Monday, followed by Trump's call with Japan's Sanae Takaichi the next day, prompted analysts to speculate that Beijing had asked Washington to step in to ease hostilities.

The diplomatic furor erupted after Takaichi told parliament on November 7 that a hypothetical Chinese attack on Taiwan could draw a military response from Tokyo.

"China and the United States share a common responsibility to jointly safeguard the post-war international order and oppose any attempts or actions to revive militarism," the article said, highlighting how the two countries shared a common enemy during World War Two, Japan.

"The communication between the Chinese and U.S. leaders has significant practical implications," the editorial added, asserting that Takaichi's comments have "raised concern and vigilance in the international community regarding Japan's dangerous strategic moves."

The commentary was published under the pen name "Zhong Sheng", meaning "Voice of China", which is often used to give the paper's view on foreign policy issues.

Trump told Takaichi to avoid further escalation with China during their call, two Japanese government sources told Reuters.

Mao Ning, a spokesperson for China's foreign ministry, did not address whether Xi had asked Trump to intervene when asked during a regular news conference on Wednesday.

People's Daily said Trump had told Xi that the U.S. understood the importance of Taiwan to China. Trump made no mention of the democratically-governed island that Beijing regards as part of its territory in his Truth Social post following their conversation.

Japan's Defence Minister Shinjiro Koizumi said on Sunday that plans to deploy a medium-range surface-to-air missile unit at a military base on Yonaguni, an island about 110 km (68 miles) off Taiwan's east coast were "steadily moving forward," drawing sharp criticism from Beijing.

"China and the U.S. fought side by side against fascism and militarism, and should now work together to safeguard the victory of World War Two," People's Daily said.

Source: TradingView

Several congressional Republicans are harshly criticizing President Donald Trump's White House over its handling of a proposed Ukraine peace plan they say favors Russia, a sharp departure for a party that has adhered closely to almost all of Trump's initiatives.

Backers of Ukraine have worried that a U.S.-based 28-point framework for ending the war in Ukraine, first reported last week, means Trump's administration might be willing to push Kyiv to sign a peace deal heavily tilted toward Moscow.

"This so-called 'peace plan' has real problems, and I am highly skeptical it will achieve peace," Senator Roger Wicker, the Republican chairman of the Senate Armed Services Committee, said in a statement on Friday.

Those fears escalated when Bloomberg News reported on, opens new tab Tuesday that Trump's envoy Steve Witkoff, in an October 14 telephone call with Russian President Vladimir Putin's policy aide Yuri Ushakov, said they should work together on a ceasefire plan and that Putin should raise it with Trump.

"For those who oppose the Russian invasion and want to see Ukraine prevail as a sovereign & democratic country, it is clear that Witkoff fully favors the Russians. He cannot be trusted to lead these negotiations. Would a Russian paid agent do less than he? He should be fired," Republican Representative Don Bacon said on X.

While Trump's party remains overwhelmingly behind him, the criticism from Republican lawmakers is notable, given the president's recent setbacks, including Democratic election victories this month and Congress backing the release of Justice Department files on the late convicted sex offender Jeffrey Epstein, an outcome Trump fought for months.

Republican Representative Brian Fitzpatrick called for a shift in approach, describing the call on social media as "a major problem. And one of the many reasons why these ridiculous side shows and secret meetings need to stop."

Senator Mitch McConnell, the former Republican Senate leader, suggested Trump might need to find new advisers. "Rewarding Russian butchery would be disastrous to America's interests," he said in a statement.

Pushback From Trump's Circle

Members of Trump's inner circle have pushed back against the lawmakers.

Vice President JD Vance, a former Republican senator who has criticized aid to Ukraine, accused McConnell of making a "ridiculous attack" on the plan to end the war.

The president's son, Donald Trump Jr., said on social media that McConnell was "just bitter and lashing out against my father."

But the attacks from members of Trump's own party, along with recent political headwinds, could signal a bigger problem for the administration, said analysts.

"All of this suggests he's much more politically vulnerable than he's seemed for the last nine, 10 months," said Scott Anderson, a fellow in governance studies at the Brookings Institution.

Additionally, with opinion polls showing most Americans want to support Ukraine as it battles Russia's invaders, Republicans are likely looking toward the 2026 midterm elections, when control of Congress will be at stake, and many Republican candidates in tight races will have to appeal to independent voters.

Some of the strongest criticism has come from Republicans like Bacon and McConnell, who are not running for reelection, but Anderson said they are saying publicly what others would be saying in private meetings.

"They are so vocal, they are so targeted ... It almost certainly reflects a private element of messaging from the part of the party they represent," Anderson said.

Source: Reuters

Key Takeaways

The job market weakened a bit this month as some employers cut back on hiring plans or reduced employees' hours and others shed jobs, according to the Federal Reserve's latest anecdotal Beige Book.

The report is a data-light snapshot of the U.S. economy, giving the Fed visibility into what businesses are experiencing as Fed officials prepare to vote on interest rates. It may take on added importance at the Fed's Dec. 9-10 meeting, since the government shutdown prompted the cancellation of October's jobs report and a delay in November's.

The picture suggests conditions may have weakened since September, when employers added some 119,000 jobs.

Employment "declined slightly" as of mid-November, the Fed's Beige Book said, with about half of the Fed's 12 districts seeing weaker demand for workers.

"Despite an uptick in layoff announcements, more Districts reported contacts limiting headcounts using hiring freezes, replacement-only hiring and attrition than through layoffs," the report said. "In addition, several employers adjusted hours worked to accommodate higher or lower than expected business volume instead of adjusting the number of employees."

Why This Matters

A cooling labor market and softer spending shape expectations for the Fed's next interest-rate move, influencing borrowing costs for consumers and businesses. These shifts also signal the economy's resilience as it enters the year-end.

A few businesses also flagged early impacts of artificial intelligence, noting it replaced some entry-level positions "or made existing workers productive enough to curb new hiring."

The weakening job market lines up with the assessment of one restaurant contact in the Philadelphia Fed district, who noted there had been "an exodus of workers to warehouse jobs" in 2021 and 2022. Now, that contact said, those workers haven't lost their jobs but are picking up part-time restaurant work since they've had their hours cut.

While anecdotal, the report helps give the Fed visibility on whether their dashboards of data align with what local contacts are telling them.

Fed officials have been unusually split in recent weeks, with some seeing more signs of economic strength than others and debating risks to inflation. Their data dashboards have also been a little smaller due to the federal government shutdown, with its economic data apparatus slowly starting to re-emerge.

"In the absence of key data, the anecdotes will provide valuable insights for Fed officials and we see the FOMC proceeding with a year-end rate cut," Priscilla Thiagamoorthy, senior economist at BMO Capital Markets, wrote in a research note.

Softer Consumer Spending

The report also found that consumer spending was softening, as middle-of-the-road households became more cautious even as higher-income ones kept spending.

"Overall consumer spending declined further, while higher-end retail spending remained resilient," the report said, adding that some travel and tourism contacts saw "cautious discretionary spending among consumers."

In the Kansas City Fed district, the government shutdown led to "a visible slowdown in foot traffic" at many retailers and restaurants, the report said. Other businesses saw similar trends.

"One firm remarked that now was the best time to get a tattoo, as even top artists have more open appointments than usual," the report said.

The more wary tone lines up with recent data, with a monthly survey from The Conference Board showing confidence falling to its lowest levels since April. It also underscores the persistence of a "'K-shaped economy,'" BMO's Thiagamoorthy wrote, as spending among higher-income households rises while those on the lower end spend less.

Prices On the Rise

The report also flagged that prices "rose moderately," with tariffs helping prompt widespread pressures on input costs among manufacturers and retailers.

It's not clear how much that will translate into higher sticker prices for consumers—and show up in the Consumer Price Index or other inflation data.

"The extent of passthrough of higher input costs to customers varied, and depended upon demand, competitive pressures, price sensitivity of consumers, and pushback from clients," the report said.

Fed officials tend to cut interest rates when the economy is weakening, but the risk of higher inflation is making some officials prefer keeping rates unchanged.

Prices declined for some materials, the report said, with some businesses attributing to weaker demand, a delay in tariff implementations or the recent cut in tariff rates on some products.

Other businesses are still seeing higher prices, with "multiple reports of margin compression or firms facing financial strain stemming from tariffs," the Beige Book said.

The Fed's contacts broadly said they "anticipate upward cost pressures to persist," but their "plans to raise prices in the near term were mixed," the report said.

Source: Investopedia

Burry, the "Big Short" investor who predicted the collapse of the US housing market in 2008, went further than Chanos in a post on X last week, saying Nvidia is one of multiple companies in the AI market with "suspicious revenue recognition" due to investments in its customers.

Source: Yahoo Finance

Source: AP