Natural Gas Price Analysis – Natural Gas Bounces to Show Signs of Life After Drop

Commodity

Summary:

Natural gas rebounded after an early drop, but bearish seasonal trends and fading demand dominate outlook. Without strong catalysts, prices may drift lower, with resistance near EMAs and support around $2.80–$2.

Natural Gas Technical Analysis

Natural gas markets have plunged during early trading on Tuesday, only to turn around and show signs of life as the market has been very choppy. Keep in mind that this time of year is typically very bearish for natural gas as temperatures rise in places like New York, Boston, Frankfurt, London, some of your bigger cities around the world that consume natural gas and use it for heat. So, as that catalyst peels off for the year, you typically see downward pressure. There is a little blip where we refill the storage tanks in the United States, which I believe just happened.

So now the question is, where do we go from here? There are concerns about a recession, although that’s looking less likely. So that might keep natural gas a little bit elevated. Nonetheless, I am more bearish than bullish. So, I do look for signs of exhaustion to sell into on shorter term charts. In the short term though, I think we are going to continue to dance around the 200 day EMA as well as the 50 day EMA, ultimately finding a reason to fall apart and go looking to the $3 level.

Anything below $2.80 opens up a trap door towards the $2 area. I don’t have a scenario in which I’m buying natural gas at the moment, unless of course something changes completely. Some of the tensions between Russia and the West continue to keep the market somewhat afloat, but keep in mind that the demand is starting to drop off, so I think that is somewhat counterbalanced at the moment.

Unless there is an external factor to really drive down the supply of natural gas or increase the demand, I think it still needs to prove itself on rallies, and at the first signs of hesitation, I’m willing to get short. This will probably be more of a choppy run lower than we had seen in the past few months, and quite frankly, multiple years preceding.

Source: fxempire

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Warren Takunda

Cryptocurrency

Key points:

XRP derivatives markets turn bearish amid reducing institutional demand, suggesting further downside for XRP price.

XRP’s descending triangle breakout could lead to a decline toward $1.96.

XRP has rebounded by more than 45% since April 7 lows to trade at $2.31 on May 27. But the price remains 31% below its January 2025 peak of $3.40, raising concerns about XRP’s ability to rise higher.

Will XRP’s price drop from the current levels in the coming days?

XRP derivatives data lean bearish

One of the clearest signs that there could be trouble ahead for XRP is the presence of neutral funding rates and decreasing open interest (OI) in its futures markets.

Funding rates are periodic payments made between long and short traders in perpetual futures contracts to keep prices aligned with the spot market.

When neutral, it indicates a balance between long and short positions, reflecting a lack of strong directional bias among traders.

XRP funding rates have hovered around 0% since February, indicating that traders are ambivalent. This could lead to continued price consolidation or sideways movement as the market lacks a clear catalyst for a breakout. Is XRP Price Going to Crash Again?_1

XRP perpetual futures funding rates across all exchanges. Source: Glassnode

Meanwhile, XRP’s OI in the futures market has dropped to $3.2 billion, down 9.6% from its three-month peak of $3.52 billion on May 13. Is XRP Price Going to Crash Again?_2

XRP futures open interest. Source: Glassnode

Historically, assets with declining open interest struggle to maintain upward momentum, as there’s insufficient capital and enthusiasm to drive prices higher.

For XRP, this could mean that even minor selling pressure might trigger a cascade of liquidations, especially if leveraged positions are unwound.

Without renewed interest from institutional or retail traders, XRP’s price risks sliding back into a downward spiral.

Investors de-risk from XRP investment products

Institutional demand for XRP investment products appears to be waning, according to data from CoinShares.

XRP exchange-traded products (ETPs) posted the largest weekly outflow of $37.2 million, breaking an impressive 80-week inflow streak. This brought month-to-date outflows to $28.6 million. Is XRP Price Going to Crash Again?_3

Flows into crypto investment products. Source: CoinShares

While CoinShares did not highlight any reasons why XRP-related products experienced the largest outflows, other top-cap cryptocurrencies such as Bitcoin, Ether and Solana recorded significant net inflows of $2.9 billion, $326 million and $4.3 million, respectively.

This indicates a decreased institutional appetite for XRP investment products, a negative catalyst for the XRP price.

XRP descending triangle hints at 16% price drop

The XRP price chart has been forming a descending triangle pattern on its four-hour chart since May 14, characterized by a flat support level and a downward-sloping resistance line.

A descending triangle is a chart pattern that forms after a sharp uptrend is seen as a bearish reversal indicator. As a rule, the pattern resolves when the price breaks below the flat support level and falls by as much as the triangle’s maximum height. Is XRP Price Going to Crash Again?_4

XRP/USD daily chart. Source: Cointelegraph/TradingView

The bulls are struggling to keep XRP above the 200-day simple moving average (SMA), currently at $2.18, signaling a lack of strength.

If this trend continues, a close below the 200-day SMA at $2.31 could sink the XRP/USDT pair toward the triangle’s support line at $2.28.

If this support fails, XRP price could tumble toward the downside target at around $1.96 by the end of May, down 16% from current price levels.

XRP’s descending triangle target echoes an earlier analysis that warned of a possible decline to as low as $1.61 if key support levels didn’t hold.

Conversely, a clear breakout above the triangle’s resistance line at $2.35 (the 50-day SMA) would invalidate the bearish structure, putting XRP in a good position to rally toward the $3.00 psychological level.

Source: Cointelegraph

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Warren Takunda

Economic

The markets will be closely watching an auction of Japan's longest tenor bonds on Wednesday to see if debt investors will continue to put up with the worsening finances of major government issuers.

Bond yields, particularly on the long end, have surged around the world in recent weeks as concerns mount over fiscal deficits.

Heavily indebted Japan's government bonds are the "canary in the global duration coalmine," Goldman Sachs analysts wrote last week after poor demand at a sale of 20-year bonds.

JGBs rallied sharply in the afternoon on Tuesday after Reuters reported that the Ministry of Finance may tweak its issuance plan to reduce issuance of super-long bonds.

That would come too late to impact Wednesday's sale of about 500 billion yen ($3.5 billion) of 40-year bonds, whose yields touched a record high 3.675% last week, along with an all-time high for 30-year paper and a multi-decade peak for 20-year debt.

Long-dated debt has sold off on concerns tax cuts and a chaotic roll-out of sweeping tariffs by U.S. President Donald Trump will stoke inflation and impel governments to spend more. That has driven up the term premium - the extra yield offered to buyers in exchange for locking up their money in longer-dated securities. Japan Auction of 40-Year Debt in Focus for Signs of Sovereign Fiscal Stress_1

Japan Auction of 40-Year Debt in Focus for Signs of Sovereign Fiscal Stress_1

Bar chart depicting general government debt as percentage of GDP

Moody's on May 17 became the last major rating agency to strip the United States of its top grade because of growing debt, which stands at about 124% of GDP.

But the situation is more precarious in Japan, where the debt ratio is double that amount and the central bank has slashed its bond buying to support the economy.

Finance Minister Katsunobu Kato warned that higher rates could further imperil Japan's finances and pledged "appropriate" management of its debt.

What sets Japan apart from other markets is that its finance chiefs are directly addressing the dramatic runup in longer yields and acting to prop them up, said Shoki Omori, chief desk strategist at Mizuho Securities.

"If you look at other places in the world, say Europe or the U.S., I don't think any policymakers are saying that they will support the long end," Omori said. "If you look at the U.S., it's the opposite."

fixed income markets been telling us then over the last week?

A reduction in issuance of 20-, 30- or 40-year JGBs would be counterbalanced by increased sales of shorter-dated debt, sources told Reuters, meaning overall issuance for the fiscal year would remain at 172.3 trillion yen.

The change would be positive for super-long bonds, but now attention turns to how much the MOF will scale things back by, said Shinichiro Kadota, head of Japan FX and rates strategy at Barclays Securities Japan.

"A smaller-than-expected reduction could be a cue for a sell-off," Kadota said.

The MOF may look to pre-COVID levels of super-long supply, which would be about 3 trillion yen less than current levels, Societe Generale analysts said in a note.

The trigger for last week's sell-offs in JGBs was an auction of 20-year debt that saw the tail - the difference between the lowest and average accepted prices - reach its widest since 1987, signalling weak demand.

The 40-year sale on Wednesday won't have a tail due to a difference in auction procedure, but traders may watch the bid-to-cover ratio, with higher numbers indicating healthier demand. The longest tenor bonds have averaged ratios of 3 since they were first sold in 2007.

Mizuho's Omori said the auction is likely to go well due to speculation over MOF issuance tweaks, but it may be a short-term fix.

"There's not going to be many other catalysts for long-term yield support," he said.

Source: Reuters

To stay updated on all economic events of today, please check out our Economic calendar

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Adam

Stocks

Wall Street's main indexes rose on Tuesday after U.S. President Donald Trump dialed back his threat of tariffs on EU imports, defusing trade tensions between the United States and the European bloc and boosting investor sentiment.

On Sunday, Trump rolled back his threat to impose 50% tariffs on imports from the EU next month, restoring a July 9 deadline to allow for talks between Washington and the 27-nation bloc.

He had initially threatened EU tariffs on Friday alongside announcements of higher tariffs on Apple's iPhones.

"The negotiating style of President Trump is known by now. It will come at you hard and then they'll be able to pull back a little bit," said Joe Saluzzi, co-head of equity trading at Themis Trading.

Asian and European markets were mixed after rising on Monday, although moves in U.S. assets were more pronounced as traders returned after the long Memorial Day weekend.

At 10:03 a.m. ET, the Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 392.44 points, or 0.94%, to 41,995.51, the S&P 500 gained 77.66 points, or 1.33%, to 5,880.48, and the Nasdaq Composite was up 333.38 points, or 1.78%, to 19,070.58.

Most megacap and growth stocks jumped with Nvidia, up about 2.7%, leading gains. The AI bellwether is slated to report quarterly earnings after markets close on Wednesday.

All 11 major S&P 500 sub-sectors rose, with consumer discretionary and information technology gaining the most.

Long-dated U.S. Treasury yields dipped, while those on the 30-year note were set for their biggest one-day fall since late April, mimicking a steep price rally in longer-term Japanese debt.

In economic data, minutes from the U.S. Federal Reserve's last policy meeting are scheduled for release on Wednesday.

An index tracking consumer confidence rose to 98 in May, a Conference Board report showed. Economists polled by Reuters had expected the index to stand at 87.

A number of Fed officials are expected to speak through the week. Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari on Tuesday called for holding interest rates steady until there was clarity on how higher tariffs impact inflation.

Personal Consumption Expenditure data - the Fed's favored inflation indicator - for May as well as a second estimate of first-quarter GDP are also scheduled to be released later this week.

Wall Street witnessed sharp weekly losses on Friday as worries about mounting U.S. debt and Trump's latest trade policy shakeup sparked a broad selloff. His sweeping tax bill - which is expected to substantially expand federal debt - won a critical House vote last Thursday.

The S&P 500 is more than 4% from record highs, although it has rebounded sharply from its April lows as easing trade concerns and tame inflation data spurred a risk-on rally.

Temu-parent PDD Holdings dropped more than 17% after missing Wall Street's first-quarter revenue estimates.

Advancing issues outnumbered decliners by a 5-to-1 ratio on the NYSE and by a 2.78-to-1 ratio on the Nasdaq.

The S&P 500 posted 12 new 52-week highs and no new lows, while the Nasdaq Composite recorded 57 new highs and 28 new lows.

Source: Reuters

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Damon

Economic

A successful trade deal with the US could help India mitigate external risks and boost its exports, the South Asian country said, as its government seeks to speed up talks and reach an interim agreement.

“A successful US-India trade agreement could flip current headwinds into tailwinds,” India’s finance ministry said in its monthly economic review Tuesday. “The risk of renewed trade barriers remains a key external vulnerability.”

External risks for India persist, primarily from the 26% US tariff on Indian imports even as a temporary suspension is in place, it said.

India is currently discussing a US trade deal structured in three tranches, Bloomberg News reported, with an interim agreement expected by July. India’s Commerce Minister Piyush Goyal was in Washington on a four-day trip last week and said in a post on X he had “good discussions” with US Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick.

India said its economic activity as well as external sector performance appear to remain resilient in April. The government’s income tax exemptions announced in its annual budget, along with a 50 basis point cut in interest rates by the central bank, should also further stimulate consumption and accelerate recovery. It could lift growth toward the upper end of forecasts of 6.3% to 6.8%, the ministry said.

The country also expects its food inflation outlook to be “benign” due to a good crop harvest and a healthy procurement of food grains, along with a forecast for an above-normal monsoon.

Source: Bloomberg Europe

To stay updated on all economic events of today, please check out our Economic calendar

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Blue River

Technical Analysis

Another day where markets hang on to a positive sentiment following a similar picture from yesterday – risk-assets are in the green and safe-havens are lagging on the day.

The US dollar as recently shines on optimist flows from markets, though as the DXY is still trading below the 100.00 level. The Greenback is leading today’s forex action.

On the other hand, the Yen is not showing such a rosy picture. Comments from the Minister of Finance Katsunobu Kato about reducing the issuance on long-end bonds made Japanese yields go down and the Yen got dragged with it.

How do yields moving down influence the Yen?

For a quick-to-understand explanation, longer-end yields have been hedging up with the latest inflation data being high – a situation where bond traders start to sell some parts of the curve to price in chances of hikes around the curve and reduce their exposure.

Funds in Japan are big buyers of all types of government bonds to provide interest, so if there is less supply of bonds and fewer bonds to buy for these entities, the rarity creates more demand, and then yields go down again.

When Yields go down in Japan, investors make more money by placing money in other higher yielding assets like US Treasuries or Equities, hence the Yen goes down.

USD/JPY Intra-Day Technical Analysis

USDJPY 30M Chart, May 27, 2025. Source: TradingView

USD/JPY rallied on the recent comments from the Minister of Finance Kato, forming a double bottom – now up 1.11% on the session.

Last week’s USD weakness created a descending channel from which prices broke out overnight. The RSI is overbought on all timeframes below 1H but the momentum is strong.

Having just crossed the last key pivot at 144.350, eyes are on these zones:

For immediate support, there is the MA 20 standing at 143.800.
A deeper retracement would retest the most recent Support Zone situated between 143.400 to 143.530.

Keep an high on a retest of the upper-bound of the descending channel, though prices are far and would require USD weakness to retrace that much – not the theme of the day.

For resistances on a pursued breakout, look at the Resistance Zone 144.700 – 144.850.
The next key resistance eyes to the 145.00 psychological level.

Safe Trades!

Source: ACTIONFOREX

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Adam

Economic

Gold prices fell to fresh session lows after the latest data showed U.S. consumer sentiment improving further than expected this month.

The Consumer Confidence Index rose to 98 in May, well above economists’ consensus forecast for an 87 reading and also below the downwardly revised 85.7 print in April, the Conference Board said on Tuesday.

The Present Situation Index, based on consumers’ assessment of current business and labor market conditions, rose 4.8 points to 135.9 in May, while the Expectations Index, representing consumers’ short-term outlook for income, business, and labor market conditions, surged 17.4 points to 72.8, but remained well below the threshold of 80 which typically signals a recession ahead.

Gold prices fell to session lows following the 10 am EDT data release, with spot gold last trading at $3,297.15 per ounce at the time of writing for a loss of 1.35% on the session.

Spot gold falls below $3,290/oz as U.S. Consumer Confidence rises to 98 in May_1

“Consumer confidence improved in May after five consecutive months of decline,” said Stephanie Guichard, Senior Economist, Global Indicators at The Conference Board. “The rebound was already visible before the May 12 US-China trade deal but gained momentum afterwards. The monthly improvement was largely driven by consumer expectations as all three components of the Expectations Index—business conditions, employment prospects, and future income—rose from their April lows.”

“Consumers were less pessimistic about business conditions and job availability over the next six months and regained optimism about future income prospects,” she added. “Consumers’ assessments of the present situation also improved. However, while consumers were more positive about current business conditions than last month, their appraisal of current job availability weakened for the fifth consecutive month.”

May’s rebound in confidence was reflected across all age groups and all income groups and political affiliations, with the strongest improvements among Republicans, but on a six-month moving average basis, confidence in all age and income groups was still down due to previous monthly declines.

“With the stock market continuing to recover in May, consumers’ outlook on stock prices improved, with 44% expecting stock prices to increase over the next 12 months (up from 37.6% in April) and 37.7% expecting stock prices to decline (down from 47.2% in April),” Guichard added. “This was one of the survey questions with the strongest improvement after the May 12 trade deal.”

Respondents once again pointed to tariffs as their number-one concern. “Notably, consumers continued to express concerns about tariffs increasing prices and having negative impacts on the economy, but some also expressed hopes that the announced and future trade deals could support economic activity,” the report said. “While inflation and high prices remained an important concern for consumers in May, there were also some mentions of easing inflation and lower gas prices.”