Natural Gas Export Growth Raises Demand Expectations for 2026

Commodity

Summary:

Natural gas prices surge on cold weather and rising demand, with LNG exports and data centers expected to keep a firm price floor. Weak ADP jobs data boosts expectations of a Fed rate cut.

As we share below, courtesy of FinViz, natural gas prices have risen by over 50% since late October. Moreover, natural gas prices, approaching $5, are at three-year highs. The primary cause of the recent price surge is increased heating demand driven by colder-than-expected winter weather, which is resulting in greater-than-average inventory draws.

Per the EIA, natural gas stocks are projected to tighten significantly heading into 2026, despite starting the season above five-year averages. Weather is the primary driver of fluctuations in natural gas demand and prices, but increasingly, the buildout of energy-intensive data centers and liquefied natural gas (LNG) facilities is setting a rising floor under natural gas prices.

While demand is amplified by the massive growth of power-intensive data centers, which investors well know, it’s also worth noting the sharp increase in demand from liquefied natural gas exports. According to the Energy Information Administration’s (EIA) November 2025 Short-Term Energy Outlook (STEO), LNG exports are projected to average 14.9 billion cubic feet per day (Bcf/d) in 2025, a 25% increase from 2024 levels.

Furthermore, they expect it to increase further to 16.3 Bcf/d in 2026 (up 10% from 2025). While weather trends remain the predominant short-term driver of natural gas prices, LNG exports and increased data center usage will boost demand, likely keeping a slowly increasing floor under natural gas prices.

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Earnings

Economy

The ADP Report Warrants A Fed Cut

The monthly ADP jobs report released yesterday showed continued deterioration in the labor market. ADP reported the economy lost 37k jobs. The Wall Street consensus was for a 10k pickup. The graph below shows that the three-month average for ADP is now negative for the first time since the early days of the Pandemic. BLS jobs data is delayed due to the government shutdown.

Notably, the ADP monthly report shows that the Northeast region lost 100k jobs, and the small-business sector reduced its workforce by 120k. The second graphic below, courtesy of ZeroHedge, highlights other factors impacting the aggregate number of job losses.

The Fed Funds market is now pricing in a 90% chance the Fed cuts at next week’s meeting. Without BLS data and updated inflation data, the weakness seen in the ADP report and other private-sector reports will likely be enough to secure a majority in favor of cutting rates. The jobs data may also warrant a couple of FOMC members to vote for a 50bps rate cut. Currently, the Fed Funds futures market assigns a zero probability of a 50bps cut.

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Gerik

Economic

A Strategic Milestone in US-Israel Agricultural Relations

In a significant move reflecting both economic pragmatism and strategic alignment, Israel and the United States have finalized a long-term Agricultural Trade Agreement (ATAP) to replace a temporary mechanism in place since 2004. The agreement establishes a comprehensive framework to facilitate deeper trade integration in the food and agricultural sectors, promoting mutual benefits across pricing, competitiveness, and bilateral ties.

Israel’s Minister of Economy and Industry, Nir Barkat, who signed the agreement alongside US Trade Commissioner Jameson Greer, emphasized that the deal responds to Israel’s twin priorities: alleviating domestic living costs and strengthening ties with its most important political and economic partner. Barkat described the new trade framework as a “balanced system” that not only stimulates price competition and reduces food costs but also enhances the positioning of Israeli exports in the US market.

This development demonstrates a causal link between Israel’s economic pressures particularly the rising cost of living and the government’s push for liberalizing agricultural trade policy, in tandem with securing strategic alliances.

Trade Concessions to Boost Imports and Protect Local Producers

One of the core components of the agreement is Israel’s commitment to reduce or eliminate tariffs on around 300 categories of US food and agricultural products. Some of these tariff eliminations will take effect immediately, while others will be phased in gradually over the next decade. These product categories span a wide range, including beef, poultry, lamb, dairy products, eggs, edible oils, juices, and various fresh or frozen produce.

The phased implementation underscores a deliberate causal policy strategy: stimulating imports and lowering consumer prices, while minimizing shocks to sensitive domestic sectors such as dairy. Government officials acknowledged that abrupt tariff reductions could destabilize entire industries, and the agreement was structured to avoid such outcomes.

At the same time, the Israeli government is investing in domestic agricultural innovation. The use of artificial intelligence and advanced agri-tech tools will be part of a broader national strategy to support local producers. This dual-track approach opening markets while reinforcing internal capacity shows that increased trade openness is being managed in tandem with risk mitigation.

Expanding Agricultural Capacity and Enhancing Food Security

According to Agriculture and Food Security Minister Avi Dichter, the agreement also serves broader national objectives. He noted that expanding high-quality agricultural exports would lead to improvements in domestic agricultural standards and supply consistency. Dichter projected that this agreement could help Israel increase agricultural output by one-third over the next decade.

The broader implications are strategic. By ensuring product availability, maintaining high standards, and protecting border settlements through rural development, the Israeli government views food security not just as an economic issue, but as a national security concern. The structure of the agreement supports this priority by avoiding abrupt market liberalization while incentivizing long-term productivity growth.

Negotiating Reciprocal Benefits in the US Market

While the agreement grants extensive access for US agricultural products, Israel is simultaneously pursuing improved terms for its own exports. Currently, about 70% of Israeli exports to the US are subject to new tariffs. Israeli negotiators are seeking to reverse this situation in the next phase of trade discussions, emphasizing that greater access to the US market is crucial for restoring Israel’s competitive edge.

The trade imbalance and the need for reciprocal market access reflect a causal dynamic: increased import openness must be matched with export opportunities to ensure balanced economic gains and political support for trade liberalization at home.

A Balanced Framework with Geopolitical and Economic Significance

The newly signed US-Israel Agricultural Trade Agreement marks a pivotal shift in both countries’ economic cooperation. It provides a structured and gradual path toward deeper integration, while addressing domestic vulnerabilities and geopolitical imperatives.

For Israel, the deal offers a pathway to address rising food costs, strengthen rural economies, and modernize its agricultural base. For the United States, it solidifies a crucial alliance in a volatile region while opening new market opportunities. The next phase of negotiations focused on Israeli export access will determine the long-term equilibrium of this strategic partnership.

To stay updated on all economic events of today, please check out our Economic calendar

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Adam

Cryptocurrency

It's hard to tell just looking at the price charts if bitcoin (BTC-USD) investors have been naughty or nice.

A bruising November has given way to some relief — and the prospects of a Santa rally. And while the Thanksgiving table chatter might have moved on to prediction markets, more players in the market are taking seriously the idea that crypto is here to stay.

The dramatic swing in sentiment — bitcoin has dropped roughly 30% from its recent highs — has been a painful reminder of crypto's volatility. But even if banks and a pro-crypto government have made it easier for people to accept digital currencies, investors ultimately are the ones who have to risk their money to push prices higher.

And there are now fewer people willing to do that.

For perspective, gold (GC=F) has risen more than 60% so far this year. Investors have reached for a safe haven from political instability, the "debasement" of fiat currencies, and rising debt loads. (Instead, they found those massive gains, figuratively striking gold as they literally struck it.)

The bullish notion that crypto is the new gold, even as a loose metaphor, strained under the relative performance of the two assets. When markets convulsed during key moments this year, investors treated gold like a refuge and crypto like a bad habit. Which looked even less flattering with the S&P 500 (^GSPC) up about 16% year to date, leaving crypto off the risk-on train.

Criticizing bitcoin's propensity to crumble under pressure is hardly new. But the fallback position of acknowledging that crypto is still in its early stages in the financial system is also, at this point, a tired comeback.

There's a middle ground, of course, and the mainstream financial industry is planting its flag. Allocating just a little bit toward crypto gives investors some exposure to the upside while minimizing the downside.

Bank of America said earlier this week that it's endorsing a 1%-4% allocation to digital assets for clients of its Merrill, Bank of America Private Bank, and Merrill Edge platforms. The move follows other big banks and asset managers warming up to crypto, including Morgan Stanley's global investment committee, BlackRock (in a big about-face), and Vanguard.

The industry's push into crypto in moderation does put limits on the to-the-moon winnings that have made crypto millionaires. You don't need to have seen "Ocean's Eleven" to know that sometimes to win big, you have to bet big.

But in a year when a speculative asset started out higher than it is right now, prudence can win too. Or at least help you lose just a little bit less.

Source: finance.yahoo

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Gerik

Economic

Commodity

Turkey’s Strategic Withdrawal from Russian Oil

Once one of Russia's most crucial customers after the European Union ceased buying crude from Moscow in 2022, Turkey is now stepping back. According to energy consultancy Kpler and data provider LSEG, Turkey’s imports of Russian Ural crude fell from 300,000 to 200,000 barrels per day in November 2025, a sharp 33% month-on-month decline.

This decline is not coincidental but correlates directly with intensifying Western sanctions, particularly from Washington. New restrictions targeting major Russian oil firms such as Lukoil and Rosneft have narrowed the pool of acceptable trading partners for Turkish refiners. In parallel, anticipation of the European Union's January 2026 embargo on refined fuels derived from Russian oil is pressuring Turkish firms to diversify their sourcing strategies preemptively.

The decision reflects a causal relationship: policy and geopolitical shifts are directly driving changes in Turkey’s oil procurement patterns, rather than coincidental market movements.

Kazakhstan and Iraq Step In to Fill the Gap

In response to the shortfall in Russian Ural crude, Turkey is increasingly sourcing oil from Kazakhstan and Iraq. In November, imports of CPC Blend from Kazakhstan reached 105,000 barrels per day the highest level since February 2024. CPC Blend, although exported via Russia’s Yuzhnaya Ozereyevka port, is produced primarily by Kazakh firms and thus exempt from sanctions targeting Russian energy.

Additionally, Turkey is ramping up purchases of KEBCO (another Kazakh blend) and Iraq’s Basrah crude. These choices reveal a calculated pivot toward alternative suppliers who offer similar quality grades without legal complications. The link between Western sanctions and Turkey’s diversification efforts is not merely correlated but reflects a clear cause-and-effect mechanism whereby external policy constraints are compelling internal strategic adjustments.

Substitution Limits and Supply Chain Risks

Despite this shift, replicating the volume and quality of Ural crude presents a structural challenge. As of June 2025, Turkey’s Ural crude imports had climbed to nearly 400,000 barrels per day, highlighting the extent of its dependence. The Mediterranean oil market has limited availability of medium-sour grades with similar refining characteristics, restricting how seamlessly Turkish refiners can pivot.

Moreover, the replacement strategy carries its own vulnerabilities. The recent conflict affecting the Caspian Pipeline Consortium (CPC) infrastructure raises the risk of future supply disruptions. Any escalation targeting export terminals or pipeline infrastructure in Kazakhstan could significantly impact Turkey’s newly favored CPC Blend imports.

This reveals a complex web of dependencies: while diversification offers near-term compliance and risk mitigation, it also introduces exposure to new geopolitical and logistical risks. The nature of this relationship is not purely correlative but highlights interconnected causal chains within the global energy supply network.

Navigating a Constrained Energy Landscape

Turkey’s energy strategy is undergoing a rapid transformation, shaped primarily by sanctions and shifting alliances in the global oil trade. The significant drop in Russian oil imports reflects more than a temporary market fluctuation it signals a long-term adjustment in sourcing behavior.

However, the transition from Ural to CPC Blend and Basrah crude is not without friction. Substitution constraints and geopolitical risks remain significant. As Turkey repositions itself within an increasingly fragmented energy landscape, its ability to maintain refinery output and price stability will depend on the resilience of alternative supply routes and the absence of further shocks in key partner nations.

The coming months will test whether Turkey’s shift is a sustainable long-term strategy or a fragile balancing act between compliance, cost, and supply security.

To stay updated on all economic events of today, please check out our Economic calendar

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Glendon

Forex

Economic

The UK's construction sector last month suffered its sharpest slowdown in activity since the first Covid lockdown as building projects were scaled back and jobs cut amid budget uncertainty, according to a closely watched survey.

In a blow to Labour's aims to boost infrastructure projects and get 1.5m homes built by 2030, the poll of UK construction firms showed output in November shrinking at the fastest pace since May 2020, when all building stalled as the pandemic shut down sites.

The monthly purchasing managers' index (PMI) for construction, considered one of the best indicators of growth in the sector, fell to 39.4 in November, down from 44.1 in October and below the 44.6 forecast by economists. Any reading above 50 represents growth and anything below a contraction.

The only other time the PMI survey, which is compiled by the data firm S&P Global, has suggested such a sharp contraction in new construction work was during the financial crisis in 2009, when the housing market crashed.

Builders have been scaling back on residential projects over the past year amid a subdued housing market and rising construction costs. Infrastructure and commercial development work also contracted sharply in November, as clients deferred investment decisions due to uncertainty about the autumn budget and "pervasive worries" about the UK economic outlook.

Separate Bank of England research has suggested businesses in the UK cut jobs at the fastest rate in four years in November. The survey of chief financial officers showed companies reduced employment by an annual rate of 1.8%, the sharpest contraction since July 2021.

The survey, called the decision maker panel, is closely monitored by Bank officials and has been cited by members of its interest rate-setting committee. Optimism for the year ahead also remained subdued, with financial officers expecting employment to fall by 0.7%, the lowest level since October 2020.

However, Robert Wood, the chief UK economist at Pantheon Macroeconomics, suggested both surveys had been skewed by "chaotic" speculation before the autumn budget. "We find it hard to believe that conditions in the sector are genuinely as bad as during a full lockdown," he said.

Wood said that the construction output figures from the Office for National Statistics had been faring better than the PMI survey so far this year, while job postings in general rose in November. "There's no doubt that construction firms are extremely disappointed in the government's progress, but we think the PMI remains too pessimistic."

Matthew Swannell, the chief economic adviser to the EY Item Club, agreed, saying the PMI has been "much more pessimistic than official estimates". He added: "November's extremely weak PMI should be approached with a healthy degree of scepticism."

Source: GUARDIAN

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Justin

Stocks

Economic

China has launched its first power plant using an advanced gas turbine manufactured domestically, marking a major step toward reducing dependence on foreign technology amid a global equipment shortage, according to Bloomberg.

China Energy Investment Corp. commissioned the Anji Power Plant, which operates two GE-designed turbines of roughly 400 megawatts each.

Bloomberg writes that the turbine design comes from GE Vernova, which formed a joint venture with state-owned Harbin Electric in 2019 to localize production and supply up to a dozen units annually.

The achievement advances China's long-running effort to build its own gas-turbine industry at a time when worldwide demand is surging—driven by data-center expansion and by developing nations shifting away from coal.

China's gas-fired capacity is expected to reach about 150 gigawatts this year, with proposals to grow to 200 gigawatts by 2030. Gas power is becoming increasingly important in coastal regions facing limited land for renewables and grid bottlenecks, according to Qi Qin of the Centre for Research on Energy and Clean Air.

Other domestic manufacturers, including Dongfang Electric and Shanghai Electric, are also speeding up their gas-turbine development programs.

The move carries broader geopolitical significance. As advanced gas turbines have long been dominated by a small group of Western and Japanese suppliers, China's ability to localize production reduces a key point of technological leverage.

At a time when global supply chains for strategic equipment are tightening and export controls are expanding, demonstrating domestic capability in large-scale turbine manufacturing strengthens China's energy security and lowers its vulnerability to potential sanctions or supply disruptions.

Source: Zero Hedge

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Adam

Economic

Futures tied to U.S. stock indices are subdued, with traders gearing up for key job market data and assessing the possibility of a cut to U.S. interest rates later this month. Salesforce lifts its full-year revenue and adjusted profit forecast, thanks to solid demand for its artificial intelligence agents. Elsewhere, crude prices edge higher after renewed Ukrainian attacks on Russian oil infrastructure.

Futures waver

U.S. stock futures hovered around the flatline on Thursday, paring back some earlier gains, as investors eyed upcoming economic data that could factor into expectations for a Federal Reserve interest rate cut later this month.

By 03:31 ET (08:31 GMT), the Dow futures contract was mostly unchanged, S&P 500 futures had dropped 5 points, or 0.1%, and Nasdaq 100 futures had fallen 38 points, or 0.2%.

The main averages on Wall Street climbed in the prior session. Traders assessed a decline in a measure of private-sector payrolls, as well as a separate survey from the Institute for Supply Management showing a contraction in services sector employment and a dip in a subindex of prices paid.

Taken together, the figures helped to bolster wagers that the Fed, gauging a waning labor market and signs of sticky but broadly steady inflation, would slash rates by 25 basis points at its December 9-10 meeting. The odds of such a reduction now stand at roughly 89%, according to CME FedWatch.

Markets were also shrugging off a media report that multiple divisions at tech giant Microsoft had lowered their sales growth targets for certain artificial intelligence-related products. Shares of Microsoft, who denied the report, fell by 2.5%.

Initial jobless claims ahead

Investors will have the chance to pour over more job market data on Thursday, when the U.S. Labor Department releases its weekly reading of first-time applications for unemployment benefits.

Economists anticipate that the reading will come in at 219,000, up marginally from 216,000 in the prior week.

Last week’s numbers marked a seven-month trough for the metric, indicating that while layoffs and firings remained low, demand for Americans looking for work has stayed muted.

Although there has been a relative dearth of more comprehensive official employment data due to a record-long federal government shutdown, the Fed argued at meetings in October and September that there is enough evidence of a slowing in the labor market to warrant an easing in borrowing costs.

Salesforce raises outlook

Shares of Salesforce rose by more than 2% in extended hours trading after the company lifted its fiscal 2026 revenue and adjusted income guidance.

Underpinning the upbeat outlook were projections for strong growth in demand for the group’s AI-enhanced agent platform, especially among its enterprise clients.

The forecast highlights the benefits Salesforce is anticipating from a growing amount of businesses moving to adopt AI tools to help streamline their operations. Mega-cap tech groups, such as Oracle, have particularly used the firm’s AI agents, which can both automate tasks and make some decisions.

In a statement, CEO Marc Benioff said its Agentforce and Data 360 products have been "the momentum drivers," notching annual recurring revenues of almost $1.4 billion, representing "explosive" growth of 114% year-over-year.

Gold dips

Gold prices edged lower, weighed by profit-taking even as investors grew more confident that the Fed will cut interest rates next week.

Spot gold was last down 0.3% at $4,191.39 an ounce and U.S. Gold Futures for February delivery had slipped 0.3% to $4,219.40 an ounce.

The prospect of lower interest rates tends to bode well for non-yielding assets such as bullion.

Along with the weekly initial jobless claims data due out later today, attention is on the delayed September Personal Consumption Expenditures price index -- the Fed’s preferred inflation metric -- on Friday.

Oil ticks higher

Oil prices rose after more strikes on Russian oil infrastructure raised threats to global supply, adding to the lack of progress in diplomatic efforts to end the war in Ukraine.

Brent futures climbed 0.6% to $63.04 a barrel, and U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude futures advanced 0.8% to $59.42 a barrel.

A Reuters report on Wednesday, citing sources, said that Ukrainian forces struck the Druzhba pipeline in Russia’s central Tambov region, reviving concerns over potential disruptions to Russian oil exports.

At the same time, high-level peace talks between U.S. and Russian officials concluded without any breakthrough earlier this week.