Natural Gas and Oil Forecast: Rising Channels and Geopolitical Tensions Shape Prices

Commodity

Summary:

Oil and natural gas prices trend within rising channels as geopolitical tensions tighten supply. Technical setups show key resistance levels ahead, with WTI, Brent, and NG poised for breakouts or pullbacks depending on momentum.

Market Overview

Crude oil climbed to a two-week high as geopolitical tensions tightened global supply expectations. Disruptions to key export routes pushed Russian product shipments down to 1.7 million bpd, a three-year low, while tanker storage surged 12 percent to 124.6 million barrels, signaling constrained flow.

Saudi Arabia’s price cut for Asian buyers underscored softer demand, tempering gains. Meanwhile, OPEC+ maintained its plan to pause output increases amid forecasts for a Russian product surplus next year.

US crude inventories remain 3 percent below seasonal norms, and rig counts dropped to a four-year low, adding further uncertainty to oil and natural gas forecasts.

Natural Gas Price Forecast

Natural Gas (NG) Price Chart

Natural Gas (NG) is trading around $5.08, respecting a rising channel that has guided price action since late November. The upper boundary near $5.11 is acting as immediate resistance, with recent candles showing hesitation through small upper wicks.

Support sits at the mid-channel line near $4.95, followed by stronger structure at $4.80. The 50-EMA is rising and holding beneath price, confirming a steady uptrend, while the 200-EMA provides deeper support near $4.69.

RSI remains just below 60, indicating controlled bullish momentum without overbought conditions. A breakout above $5.11 may open $5.26 and $5.40, while a drop below $4.95 risks a move toward $4.80 and the lower channel line.

WTI Oil Price Forecast

WTI Price Chart

WTI Crude Oil (USOIL) is trading around $59.55, moving inside a rising channel with clear support at $59.20 and resistance near $60.01. Recent 2H candles show rejection wicks at the upper boundary, signaling supply near $60. Price is repeatedly holding the mid-channel trendline, keeping the short-term structure intact.

The 50-EMA and 200-EMA remain flat, showing a balanced market. RSI is hovering around 50, indicating neutral momentum but no overextended conditions.

A dip toward $59.20 could attract buyers if the lower trendline holds. A break below that level exposes $58.40. A close above $60.01 would confirm strength and open the path toward $60.80 and $61.46.

Brent Oil Price Forecast

Brent Price Chart

Brent Oil (UKOIL) is trading near $63.20, sitting inside a tightening symmetrical triangle formed by descending resistance from $63.61 and rising support from the $61.85–$62.50 region. Recent 2H candles show hesitation at the triangle’s upper boundary, with small rejection wicks signaling supply around $63.60.

The 50-EMA is flattening while price fluctuates around the 200-EMA, showing indecision ahead of a breakout. RSI holds near 50, reflecting balanced momentum.

A move below $63.00 exposes the lower trendline at $62.80, while a breakdown opens $62.53 and $61.85. A clean close above $63.61 would invalidate the triangle and allow upside toward $64.40 and $65.07. The pattern remains neutral until price leaves the apex.

Source: fxempire

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Michelle

Forex

Economic

Canada's unemployment rate once again defied expectations and fell to a 16-month low in November as a solid gain in part-time jobs boosted the number of people employed for the third time in a row, data showed on Friday.

The unemployment rate fell 0.4 percentage points in November to 6.5%, the lowest since July 2024, Statistics Canada said, adding it was led by 53,600 net job gains in November mainly among youth.

The job gains were driven by a 63,000 net additions in part-time workforce linked to healthcare and social assistance sector, StatsCan said.

With three months in a row of job gains, the Canadian economy has now added 181,000 new jobs since September, offsetting an almost no change in jobs for the first eight months when U.S. tariffs and trade uncertainty choked hiring.

Analysts polled by Reuters had forecast employment to reduce by 5,000 jobs in November and the jobless rate to tick up to 7%.

The improvement in unemployment rate was also helped by a reduction in total labor force as immigration curbs instituted by the government sent less people into the job market.

YOUTH EMPLOYMENT IMPROVES

Canada's unemployment rate had been steadily climbing since March when President Trump unleashed a raft of tariffs on critical sectors such as steel, aluminum, cars and every other industry that did not comply with a free trade deal.

The impact has been more acute among the youth, or those aged between 15 and 24 years.

But November and October were the outlier. Employment in this category was up by 50,000 in November, and with October, these were the first jumps in youth employment since the start of the year, StatsCan said.

The youth unemployment rate fell 1.3 percentage points to 12.8% in November, following a slight decline in October. In September the youth unemployment rate had peaked at a 15-year high.

Employment among the core-aged group, which account for two-thirds of the total labor force, was little changed in November.

The average hourly wage of permanent employees - a gauge closely tracked by the Bank of Canada to ascertain inflationary trends - stayed at 4% in November, same as the previous month.

Source: Investing

To stay updated on all economic events of today, please check out our Economic calendar

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Adam

Economic

A 2025 refrain many of us likely have heard would be: “You’re buying that? You’re doing that? In this economy?”

But this problem does not seem to extend to the world’s most valuable company Nvidia, which is sitting on a problem most of us would like to have: having too much cash.

At the end of October, Nvidia had $60.6 billion in cash and short-term investments. That’s up from $13.3 billion in January 2023, just after OpenAI released ChatGPT.

And this is even after splashing out billions of dollars on stakes in companies: $1 billion for Nokia, $5 billion for Intel, $10 billion for Anthropic—and a jaw-dropping $100 billion commitment to OpenAI still under discussion.

To add to this, Nvidia announced it would invest $2 billion in Synopsys this week.

Nvidia, which has gone from a niche maker of graphic cards to the world’s most valuable company, has also made $37 billion in buybacks and dividends, with a further $60 billion authorised.

When your biggest challenge is figuring out how to spend $60 billion, you’re living the ultimate corporate luxury.

To take a line from ABBA: “Money money money, must be funny, in Nvidia’s world.”

What you need to know today

Microsoft Office price hikes. Microsoft said Thursday that it will increase the prices of Office productivity software subscriptions for commercial and government clients on July 1. The company has been facing increased competition in recent years from Google.

India cuts rates. The Reserve Bank of India cut its policy rate by 25 basis points to 5.25%, matching forecasts. The bank delivered a unanimous reduction, citing “weakness in some key economic indicators,” even as headline inflation eased significantly.

‘China’s Nvidia’ IPO. Shares of Moore Threads, a Beijing-based graphics processing unit (GPU) manufacturer often referred to as “China’s Nvidia,” soared by more than 400% on its debut in Shanghai following its $1.1 billion listing.

Markets little changed. U.S. markets traded mixed Thursday stateside as investors assessed a report showing announced job cuts in November from U.S. employers surpassed 1 million for the year. Markets in Asia slid, with Japan leading losses.

[PRO] AI stocks at a reasonable price? Investors should turn to less explored pockets of the market to find stocks that are a play on the artificial intelligence boom but also offer growth at a reasonable price, Citigroup analysts say.

And finally...

China said it was open to importing more goods from France in exchange for a “fair, conducive environment” for Chinese businesses in the European nation, President Xi Jinping told his counterpart Emmanuel Macron on Thursday as they met in Beijing.

The French president kicked off a 3-day visit to China on Wednesday — his first trip to Beijing in more than two years — on the heels of growing frictions over a range of topics including trade imbalance and the long-running war in Ukraine.

In a separate readout from the French government, Macron told Xi that the two countries must work together based on “a balanced relationship,” while urging Beijing to help end the Russia-Ukraine war.

Source: cnbc

To stay updated on all economic events of today, please check out our Economic calendar

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Adam

Commodity

Russia-Ukraine Conflict

Oil prices were steady on Friday, supported by stalled Ukraine peace talks, though gains were offset by expectations of a supply glut.

Brent crude was down 8 cents, or 0.1%, to $63.18 per barrel by 1032 GMT. U.S. West Texas Intermediate dipped 14 cents, or 0.2%, to $59.53 a barrel.

For the week, Brent was largely stable and WTI was on track to log a gain of about 1.7%, marking a second straight weekly increase.

"It is quite flat today and this week had a narrow trading range," said Tamas Vargas, an oil market analyst at PVM. "The lack of progress in the Ukrainian peace talks provides a bullish backdrop but on the other hand, resilient OPEC production provides a bearish backstop. These two opposing forces make trading seemingly quiet."

The market is also assessing the impact of a possible U.S. Fed rate cut and tensions with Venezuela, both of which could boost oil prices, analysts said.

Of economists surveyed in a November 28 to December 4 Reuters poll, 82% expected a 25-basis-point interest rate reduction at next week's Federal Reserve policy meeting. A rate cut would stimulate economic growth and energy demand.

"Looking ahead, supply factors remain in focus. A peace deal with Russia would bring more barrels to the market and likely push prices down," said Anh Pham, a senior research specialist at LSEG.

"On the other hand, any geopolitical escalation will drive prices higher. OPEC+ has agreed to keep production steady until early next year, so it adds some support for prices too," he said.

Markets also continued to brace for a potential U.S. military incursion into Venezuela after President Donald Trump said late last week the U.S. would start taking action to stop Venezuelan drug traffickers on land "very soon".

Rystad Energy said in a note that such a move could put at risk Venezuela's 1.1 million barrels per day of crude oil production, which goes mostly to China.

Prices were also boosted this week by the failure of U.S. talks in Moscow to achieve any significant breakthrough over the war in Ukraine, which could have included a deal to let Russian oil back into the market.

Those factors kept prices supported despite a growing surplus.

Saudi Arabia cut its January Arab Light crude selling prices to Asia to the lowest level in five years amid oversupply, according to a document reviewed by Reuters on Thursday.

Source: reuters

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Warren Takunda

Traders' Opinions

World shares were mostly higher on Friday after the U.S. stock market held near its records in a quiet day of trading.

The future for S&P 500 rose 0.2% while that for the Dow Jones Industrial Average was unchanged.

In early European trading, Germany’s DAX added 0.5% to 23,996.47. In Paris, the CAC 40 rose 0.2% to 8,135.57 while Britain’s FTSE 100 edged 0.1% higher to 9,729.82.

In Asia, Japan’s Nikkei 225 trimmed gains from the previous day, shedding 1.1% to 50,491.87. Government data showed household spending in Japan fell 3.0% year-on-year in October, below market expectation for a light increase and the sharpest drop since January 2024.

Technology shares declined, with computer chip testing equipment maker Advantest Corp. down 2.4% and chip maker Tokyo Electron falling 2%.

Traders were acting cautiously ahead of a key U.S. inflation report that could influence Federal Reserve policy. On Thursday, expectations for a coming Fed cut took a slight hit after reports suggested the job market may be in better shape than expected and does not need much help from lower interest rates.

In Chinese markets, Hong Kong’s Hang Seng index recovered from morning losses, adding 0.6% to 26,085.08, while the Shanghai Composite index rose nearly 0.7% to 3,902.81. Still, traders remained cautious ahead of key data from China next week including inflation, trade and producer prices. Investors are also awaiting policy signals from high-level economic meetings in China.

South Korea’s Kospi index rose 1.8% to 4,100.05. Among gainers were LG Electronics, which rose 5.2%, and Hyundai Motors, which soared 11.1%.

In Australia, the S&P/ASX200 edged up 0.2% to 8,634.60. Taiwan’s Taiex rose nearly 0.7%

India’s Sensex advanced 0.5% after the Reserve Bank cut its repo rate to 5.25% from 5.5%, citing weak price pressures and expectations for slowing economic growth.

On Thursday, the U.S. stock market continued its relatively calm run following weeks of sharp and scary swings.

The S&P 500 inched up by 0.1% and was just 0.5% below its all-time high. The Dow Jones Industrial Average dipped 0.1% and the Nasdaq composite rose 0.2%.

Dollar General helped lead the market and rallied 14% after reporting a stronger profit for the latest quarter than analysts expected. More customers shopped at its stores, and it also squeezed more profit out of each $1 in sales that it made.

Besides worries about potential overinvestment in AI, concerns about what the Federal Reserve will do with interest rates sent the S&P 500 on sharp swings after it set its all-time high in late October.

Investors generally expect the Fed to cut its main interest rate next week in hopes of shoring up the slowing U.S. jobs market. If it does, that would be the third such cut this year.

Investors love lower interest rates because they boost prices for investments and can rev up the economy. The downside is that they can worsen inflation, which remains stubbornly above the Fed’s 2% target.

In other dealings early Friday, U.S. benchmark crude shed 7 cents to $59.60 per barrel. Brent crude, the international standard, gave up 1 cent to $63.25 per barrel.

The U.S. dollar fell to 154.91 Japanese yen from 155.12 yen. The euro climbed to $1.1652 from $1.1645.

Source: AP

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Glendon

Forex

Economic

Indian households are witnessing a significant easing in price pressures now and expect it to continue over the next 12 months across all major product categories, according to surveys conducted by the country's central bank.

The Reserve Bank of India's household inflation expectations survey, conducted during Nov. 1-10, showed that the median inflation perception for the current period declined by 80 basis points from the previous survey in September. Inflation expectations for the next three months and one year ahead also showed notable moderation.

"Households reported easing of price and inflationary pressures in most of the product groups including food products, non-food products, and cost of services for both the time horizons," the RBI said.

In such surveys, the direction of change, rather than the absolute level, is more important.

A record-low inflation print in October prompted the central bank to cut its key policy rate on Friday. The RBI also signaled that benign inflation conditions are likely to persist next year.

In a separate survey, consumer confidence, especially in urban areas, showed improvement. Confidence for the year ahead remained in optimistic territory, supported by improved sentiments on prices and the general economic situation.

Sentiments regarding urban employment prospects remained "fairly strong," the RBI said.

Source: Bloomberg Europe

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Samantha Luan

Stocks

Economic

SK hynix's high bandwidth memory HBM3E is displayed at the SK AI Summit 2025 exhibition in Seoul, Nov. 3. Yonhap

Korea has recorded a net outflow of talent in the artificial intelligence (AI) sector as the wage premium for AI professionals remains the lowest among major advanced economies, the central bank said Friday.

The country recorded a net outflow of AI talent every year from 2010 through 2024, excluding 2020, and the number of Korean AI professionals working overseas increased steadily to reach about 11,000 last year, according to a report by the Bank of Korea (BOK).

The figure accounted for about 16 percent of the country's total AI workforce, about 6 percentage points higher than the average share of workers overseas in other fields, the report showed.

In terms of the overall number of AI professionals, Korea also lagged far behind major nations.

Koreans with skills in big data, cloud computing, deep learning and related fields stood at around 57,000 in 2024, well below that of the United States, which had around 780,000 AI professionals, as well as Britain with 110,000 and France with 70,000.

The report noted that the wage premium earned by domestic AI professionals ranked near the bottom among major developed nations.

AI professionals in Korea earned an average of just 6 percent more than non-AI workers last year, compared with a 25 percent premium in the U.S., 18 percent in Canada, and 15 percent in Britain, France and Australia.

"Our analysis suggests a link between compensation and overseas job mobility in the AI sector," said Oh Sam-il, head of the BOK's employment research team.

"The low wage premium is due partly to Korea's rigid wage structure and underdeveloped performance-based pay system, and such factors put the country at a disadvantage in the global competition for AI talent."