Natural Gas and Oil Forecast: Prices Rebound as Geopolitical Tensions Tighten Supply

Commodity

Summary:

Oil rebounded to $59 and gas to $3.05 as geopolitical tensions tightened supply. WTI and Brent faced resistance near $59–$63, while natural gas formed a possible double-bottom recovery pattern.

Market Overview

WTI crude oil climbed toward $59 per barrel, rebounding from a five-month low as global supply worries eased amid renewed geopolitical tensions. Markets drew support from expectations of reduced Russian oil flows, even as the IEA warned of a potential 4 million barrels-per-day surplus by 2026.

However, U.S. crude inventories surged 7.4 million barrels last week, signaling soft demand. Natural gas prices followed oil higher, with traders weighing the opposing forces of rising stockpiles and tightening geopolitical conditions.

The market remains volatile, balancing production uncertainty against weak consumption forecasts.

Natural Gas Price Forecast

Natural Gas (NG) Price Chart

Natural Gas is trading near $3.05, attempting to stabilize after a sharp correction from the $3.39 area. The price is currently forming a potential double-bottom pattern near $2.96, signaling possible exhaustion of bearish momentum.

The 50-EMA at $3.16 and 200-EMA at $3.27 remain key resistance levels, aligning with the Fibonacci 0.5 and 0.618 retracement zones, where sellers have historically re-entered. A break above $3.12 could confirm a short-term recovery toward $3.17 and $3.22, while a failure to clear this area may lead to another retest of $2.96.

The RSI at 40.9 shows early signs of bullish divergence, hinting at slowing downside pressure. If buyers hold the $2.96 support, Natural Gas could stage a gradual rebound toward $3.20 in the near term.

WTI Oil Price Forecast

WTI Price Chart

WTI Crude Oil is trading around $58.78, struggling to break above its short-term descending trendline resistance near $59.30. The price has been consolidating between $58.20 and $59.00, with sellers defending the 50-EMA at $59.34. A breakout above this area could open the path toward $60.50 and $61.20, key Fibonacci retracement zones.

Meanwhile, support lies at $58.20, and a close below this level may drag prices toward $57.60 or even $56.80. The RSI near 47 suggests neutral momentum, hinting at potential range-bound trading before a directional move.

For now, traders are waiting for a decisive close beyond the $59–$60 zone to confirm the next trend direction.

Brent Oil Price Forecast

Brent Price Chart

Brent Crude Oil is trading near $62.44, consolidating in a narrow range between $61.77 and $62.84 after failing to break above its short-term descending channel resistance. The broader trend remains bearish, with prices staying below the 50-EMA ($63.12) and 200-EMA ($65.05), reinforcing selling pressure.

A sustained move above $62.80 could signal an early breakout, targeting $63.90 and $65.30, where stronger resistance awaits. However, if sellers regain control, a drop below $61.40 could open the door toward $60.97 and $60.10.

The RSI near 46 shows mild recovery from oversold territory, suggesting limited upside unless momentum strengthens. For now, Brent remains range-bound, awaiting a decisive breakout for clearer direction.

Source: fxempire

Risk Warnings and Disclaimers

You understand and acknowledge that there is a high degree of risk involved in trading. Following any strategies or investment methods may lead to potential losses. The content on the site is provided by our contributors and analysts for information purposes only. You are solely responsible for determining whether any trading assets, securities, strategy, or any other product is suitable for investing based on your own investment objectives and financial situation.

Add to Favorites

Michelle

Economic

Forex

(Oct 16): Federal Reserve governor Christopher Waller said officials can keep lowering interest rates in quarter-percentage-point increments to support a faltering labour market, while Stephen Miran continued to advocate a larger reduction.

“You don’t want to make a mistake, so the way to avoid that is to go cautiously or carefully and do 25, wait and see what happens, and then you can get a better idea of what to do,” Waller said Thursday during an interview on Bloomberg Television.

Fed chair Jerome Powell signalled earlier this week that officials are on track to lower borrowing costs by a quarter point when they meet at the end of this month. It would be the second rate reduction of the year as officials react to a sharp slowdown in job growth. However, several policymakers have emphasised the need to remain on guard against inflation, which is still running above the Fed’s 2% target.

In a separate interview Thursday on Fox Business, Miran reiterated his call for a larger, half-point cut. Miran is on temporary leave from his post as chair of the White House Council of Economic Advisers, in a governor position at the Fed which expires in January.

Miran repeated his view that a recent flare-up in US-China trade tensions creates more downside risk for the economy and calls for rapid monetary policy easing.

“If monetary policy stays as restrictive as it is, and you have a shock like this hit the economy, it does materially increase the negative consequences of that shock,” he said, adding that he would favor a half-point cut when officials meet Oct 28-29. But he conceded officials are likely to lower rates by a quarter point, as they did in September.

“I think that we are probably set up for three 25-basis-point cuts this year,” Miran said.

Source: Theedgemarkets

To stay updated on all economic events of today, please check out our Economic calendar

Risk Warnings and Disclaimers

Add to Favorites

Samantha Luan

Economic

Forex

Political

International Monetary Fund (IMF) chief Kristalina Georgieva intends to visit Ukraine at a time that has not yet been determined, an IMF spokesperson said on Wednesday.Georgieva visited Ukraine in February 2023 and plans to visit again, but the timing is still undecided, the spokesperson said. The IMF chief's plans were first reported by Bloomberg.Ukrainian officials met with backer countries, the IMF and the World Bank on Wednesday on the sidelines of the annual meetings of the IMF and World Bank in Washington.Ukraine is in talks with the IMF about a new four-year lending programme for the country that would replace the current four-year US$15.5 billion (RM65.49 billion) programme with the Fund. Ukraine has already received US$10.6 billion of that amount.

"Our staff remains actively engaged with the Ukrainian authorities on macroeconomic policies aimed at maintaining stability, financing essential expenditures, and restoring debt sustainability with a view to continued IMF support," the IMF spokesperson said.A new programme is needed since the program agreed on in 2023 assumed the war would end in late 2025. With that prospect still not in sight, the assumptions underlying the initial loan have to be reworked, according to sources familiar with the process.As was the case in 2023, the G7-plus countries will have to offer assurances to guarantee the IMF loan since the fund normally does not lend to a country at war.

Discussions on the assurances are ongoing, a G7 source said. US officials have told their European partners that they do not intend to participate in the assurances, and will need Europe to shoulder that responsibility, the source added.For Ukraine, cooperation with the IMF remains an anchor for its economic policy, as the war against Russia drags into its fourth year and the country faces a challenging task to raise money to cover the budget gap next year.The government has prepared a draft 2026 budget, aiming for a deficit of about 18.4% of gross domestic product (GDP). Finance Minister Serhiy Marchenko estimated the unfunded gap for the 2026 budget at about US$18 billion.

Source: Theedgemarkets

To stay updated on all economic events of today, please check out our Economic calendar

Risk Warnings and Disclaimers

Add to Favorites

Warren Takunda

Economic

India says it is looking to step up purchases of crude oil and natural gas from the U.S. as it diversifies its energy supplies and confronts criticism by U.S. President Donald Trump over its imports of discounted Russian oil.

Trump said Wednesday that Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi had personally assured him his country would stop buying Russian oil, in a move that might add to pressure on Moscow to negotiate an end to the war in Ukraine.

“There will be no oil. He’s not buying oil,” Trump said. The change won’t take immediately, he said, but “within a short period of time.”

India is the second biggest buyer of Russian oil after China. Trump cited its purchases from Moscow when he announced 50% tariffs on imports from India in August.

A statement Thursday by India’s foreign ministry did not address Trump’s remarks directly. It said the government’s consistent priority was to safeguard the interests of Indian consumers in a volatile energy environment.

“Ensuring stable energy prices and secured supplies have been the twin goals of our energy policy. This includes broad basing our energy sourcing and diversifying as appropriate to meet market conditions,” said Randhir Jaiswal, a ministry spokesman.

He said the Trump administration had shown interest in deepening energy cooperation and talks on that were underway.

Expanding India’s energy dealings with the U.S. could help India mitigate supply disruptions and align with Washington’s push to reduce global dependence on Russian oil.

India’s Trade Secretary Rajesh Agarwal said Wednesday that India was willing to increase its purchases of American oil and natural gas if prices were competitive.

Agarwal told reporters India has been buying around $12-$13 billion worth of crude oil and gas from the U.S. annually and there was room to nearly double that without causing disruptions for Indian refiners.

A team of Indian government officials was visiting the U.S. to discuss a bilateral trade agreement that includes energy cooperation, he said.

“In discussions we are in, we have indicated very positively that India as a country would like to diversify its portfolio as far as energy imports are concerned. That’s the best strategy for a big buyer like India,” said Agarwal.

In February, Modi and Trump set a target of finalizing the first tranche of a trade agreement by autumn. Talks were suspended after five formal rounds of negotiations after Trump expressed displeasure over India’s continued purchases of Russian oil. He said that was helping to fuel Moscow’s war against Ukraine.

Trump has been frustrated by his inability to force an end to the war in Ukraine, which began with Russia’s invasion almost four years ago. He’s expressed dissatisfaction with Russian President Vladimir Putin, whom he increasingly describes as the primary obstacle to a resolution, and he’s scheduled to meet with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy on Friday.

In recent weeks, Modi has engaged positively on Trump’s social media posts, including the one about first stage of a peace deal between Israel and Hamas, suggesting New Delhi is keen to expand cooperation with the U.S. In turn, Trump called Modi his “friend” and wished him well on his birthday last month.

Source: AP

To stay updated on all economic events of today, please check out our Economic calendar

Risk Warnings and Disclaimers

Add to Favorites

Michelle

Cryptocurrency

Bitcoin has shifted into a speculative phase, intensifying market dynamics as on-chain data highlights late-cycle investor behavior amidst substantial institutional ETF inflows in October 2025.

This transition elevates Bitcoin's risk-reward profile, potentially influencing market strategies and asset performance, particularly with high volatility affecting related cryptocurrencies like Ethereum, Solana, and XRP.

Bitcoin has entered a mature speculative phase, as indicated by on-chain metrics. The October 2025 rally and institutional inflows have marked this period, affecting both Bitcoin and related market assets significantly.

The shift aligns with increased institutional participation, with over 180 corporations embracing Bitcoin. Key blockchain analytics firms report findings on speculative behavior impacting asset portfolios and holding strategies.

Institutional ETF inflows totaled over $110 billion in 2025, driving robust demand. This influx has maintained liquidity, influencing funding rates and price dynamics within cryptocurrency markets globally.

The speculative phase has led to a supply squeeze driven by miner and institutional behavior. This shift has implications for derivative markets and short positions, affecting market liquidity and volatility levels.

BTC price reached $126,198 in October 2025, aligning with historical patterns of speculative peaks. This underscores market players’ cautious optimism amid increased volatility, reflecting similar late-cycle traits from previous bull runs.

Source: CryptoSlate

Risk Warnings and Disclaimers

Add to Favorites

Warren Takunda

Economic

The Australian dollar came under pressure after it was revealed Australia's unemployment rate rose to its highest since 2021, raising the chances of further interest rate reductions.

Australia's unemployment rate unexpectedly jumped 0.2% to 4.5% in September, according to the ABS, which also dished out a 0.1% upwardly revised 4.3% rate for August.

This was after the economy added 14.9K jobs in September, which was below the consensus estimate, and confirms there was no impressive rebound from the previous month's shock contraction of 11.9K.

The participation rate rose 0.1% in August and September to reach 67.0%, meaning more people entered the job market, statistically boosting the unemployment rate.

"The Australian dollar weakened on the unexpectedly strong rise in the Australian unemployment rate in September, with the rate now at a high since late 2021," says a daily market briefing from Saxo Bank.

The pound to Australian dollar exchange rate (GBP/AUD) is higher by 0.40% on the day, building on an impressive recovery that was sparked by last Friday's trade war shock.

China dealt a blow to the global economy by announcing all foreign manufacturers must seek China's permission to export any of their products that use even the slightest trace of Chinese rare earths.

That China-inspired global shock registered most significantly with China-linked assets such as the Aussie.

Fast forward to Thursday and the currency has this underwhelming domestic data to add to its concerns.

"With a surprise increase in the unemployment rate to 4.5%, September’s labour force data point to an ongoing easing in the labour market," says Aaron Luk, an economist at ANZ.

"The data do make the upcoming RBA November Board meeting more challenging," he says.

The Reserve Bank of Australia was thought to be close to the end of its rate cutting cycle owing to an ongoing resilience in the domestic economy.

Inflation sits above the target 2.0% level and further reductions in interest rate risk stoking inflationary pressures.

However, the RBA will judge a deterioration in the labour market as a downside risk to inflation, offering a window to lower interest rates.

A lower base rate will automatically weigh on short-term Australian government bond yields, a key driver of the currency.

"Today’s data lends weight to our view that there is still a good chance the RBA will cut rates in November," says Ryan Wells, an economist at Westpac.

The dual impact of rising China-U.S. trade tensions and a second consecutive soft labour market report could just have ended the Aussie dollar's charge higher for the time being.

Source: Poundsterlinglive

To stay updated on all economic events of today, please check out our Economic calendar

Risk Warnings and Disclaimers

Add to Favorites

Glendon

Economic

Forex

Federal Reserve Governor Stephen Miran said he would favor a half-point interest-rate cut this month, and repeated his view that trade tensions add uncertainty to the economy and increase downside risks to growth.

“If monetary policy stays as restrictive as it is, and you have a shock like this hit the economy, it does materially increase the negative consequences of that shock,” Miran said Thursday to Fox Business.

He added he would favor a half-point cut when officials meet Oct. 28-29, though the committee is likely to lower rates by a quarter-percentage point, as it did in September.

“I think that we are probably set up for three 25-basis-point cuts this year,” he said.

Fed Chair Jerome Powell signaled the central bank is on track for a quarter-point cut this month as a slow-down in hiring risks a spike in unemployment. Still, some policymakers have expressed the need to stay cautious as inflation remains above their 2% goal.