Musk's $140 Million Fine Shows The EU Is Losing Its Nerve

Political

Economic

Summary:

Vice President JD Vance is a master of dramatic soundbites. Rumors are swirling that the European Commission will fine X hundreds of millions of dollars for "not engaging in censorship," he tweeted on Thursday. Europe, in other words, was trying to force X's owner Elon Musk to smother the free speech of his users.

Vance was wrong on both counts. Europe's regulatory fine against Elon Musk's X has turned out to be a more modest €120 million ($140 million). It also has nothing to do with censorship. X isn't being told what content to remove. It's simply required to be transparent about verification, advertising and provide access to third-party researchers, none of which the company has done.

X's descent into a racist, politically radical hellscape fueled by porn in recent years is the predictable outcome of chronic opacity and deliberate obfuscation. X misled users by monetizing its blue checkmarks so anyone could become "verified." It blocked independent researchers from accessing public data and charged prohibitive fees for limited Application Programming Interface access, making it nearly impossible to study misinformation patterns, according to the Commission's findings. And the company declined to maintain a searchable, reliable advertising database too, obscuring who was paying what to influence public discourse.

The fine represents 6% of X's $2.3 billion in projected advertising revenue for 2025. That's perfectly manageable for the world's richest person and X has 90 days to implement changes that fix the issue or it could face additional fines, Bloomberg News reported. But the penalty could have been much bigger. The Commission had originally considered calculating a fine based on Musk's entire private company portfolio, or what the Commission called the Musk Group. That would have included SpaceX's projected income of $15.5 billion for this year, along with money from xAI, Boring Co. and X. To have abandoned a higher number after a two-year investigationsuggests the EU is pulling its punches.

The reason is almost certainly geopolitical pressure and the threat of trade retaliation. US Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick recently told Brussels it must loosen digital laws in exchange for lower steel tariffs. The quid pro quo was explicit.

The Commission would deny it's going soft on Big Tech. After all, it's mulling a probe into Meta Platforms Inc. over WhatsApp's artificial intelligence features, and is rolling out the world's most sweeping legislation on AI.

But the latter legislation has been delayed, and the Commission has been similarly timid with antitrust fines this year against against Apple Inc. of €500 million and Meta of €200 million, which were tiny fractions of their revenue and well below the 10% permitted under the region's new antitrust legislation.

X was the European Union's first probe under its other new law addressing harmful online content, known as the Digital Services Act (DSA). The law is careful about threading the needle on free speech by pushing companies to conduct more transparent risk assessments on their recommendation algorithms, to ensure they're not promoting violence, hate speech or content about eating disorders and self-harm.

Now Europe's handling of this initial case sets the template for its enforcement against TikTok, Meta and others — and its weak response to Musk threatens to undermine the entire regulatory framework.

Critically, Musk's case shows why consolidated power in the hands of a few tech billionaires can be so perilous. He not only controls a major social platform but also critical infrastructure that could steer the war in Ukraine (Starlink), advanced artificial intelligence (xAI) and space technology (Space X), all while having served as an advisor to the US president, a tenure that was fleeting and explosive but still retains a legacy judging by Vance's latest comments.

Far from turning X into a town square for free speech, Musk has made it a vehicle for his personal political agenda while neglecting to build the necessary checks and balances to make such a platform safe and trustworthy. False, ideologically extreme posts go viral on X, poisoning public discourse and warping democratic decisions. It sets a precedent that could embolden other billionaire-owned platforms to prioritize ideology over the public interest. European regulators faced the exact scenario they've been striving to prevent, and they blinked.

Source: Bloomberg Europe

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Warren Takunda

Economic

Managing money effectively is key to financial security, although the best way to secure strong returns on your cash isn't always clear. In general, Europeans invest in fewer stocks than their American counterparts — instead choosing to save money in bank accounts.

Across the EU, habits around investment nonetheless differ widely, partially influenced by market offerings and different cultural perceptions around money.

Trade body the Association for Financial Markets in Europe (AFME) uses a 'Household Market Investment Indicator’ to measure how much of household savings are channelled into capital markets instruments.

It looks at the value of financial instruments held by Europeans as a share of national output. The instruments included in the calculation are equity shares (stocks), investment fund shares (like ETFs), bonds, life insurance reserves, and pension fund holdings. It excludes cash, deposits, and unlisted equity .

“These options (market-based instruments) generally offer higher long-term returns than traditional bank accounts, which often lose value after inflation,” a spokesperson at AFME told Euronews Business.

Denmark and Sweden lead

According to AFME’s Capital Markets Union report, household financial assets in the EU were almost equal in size to the bloc's GDP in the first half of 2025, coming to 94% of the total value.

The report comes as the EU is debating how to best structure its capital markets to allow investment to flow into critical sectors across the bloc.

Among EU countries, the ratio ranges from 16% in Romania to 194% in Denmark and Sweden. The Netherlands follows at 164%.

These three countries stand well above the rest, as Italy, in fourth place, has a ratio of 119%.

At the bottom of the ranking, savings in market instruments as a percentage of GDP is 16% in Romania. Next is Lithuania at 18% and Bulgaria at 20%.

The ratio is 122% in the UK, which is no longer an EU country. Is Europe Risk-Averse? Here Are the Countries Investing the Most_1

Countries that record high investment levels "typically combine three elements", said the AFME spokesperson. "These are well-developed pension schemes (e.g. NL, US, and the Nordics), tax benefits for investing, and simple, user-friendly investment accounts.”

The AFME highlighted Sweden’s Investment Savings Account (ISK) as a strong example of how policy can encourage citizens to invest. These accounts make it easy and tax-efficient to invest in things like stocks, ETFs, and funds, said the group.

The spokesperson noted that countries that lack these features often see lower engagement with capital markets and citizens often stick to low-yield savings accounts.

Capital markets savings per person

Rather than ratios alone, AFME figures also show the scale of investments. In the first half of 2025, household financial assets per person in the EU averaged €42,069.

Among EU members, it varies from €2,880 in Romania to €150,034 in Denmark.

Capital markets savings per person also exceed €100,000 in the Netherlands and Sweden.

Luxembourg ranks fourth at €76,937, demonstrating how far ahead the top three countries are. Is Europe Risk-Averse? Here Are the Countries Investing the Most_2

Is Europe Risk-Averse? Here Are the Countries Investing the Most_2

Nine EU countries, making up one in three in the bloc, have less than €10,000 in capital markets savings per person. Besides Romania, these countries are Bulgaria, Poland, Lithuania, Greece, Latvia, Estonia, Slovakia and Slovenia.

This figure is €75,463 in the UK, the highest among Europe’s top five economies.

Source: Euronews

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Justin

Bond

Economic

Key points:

· Takaichi softens tone on BOJ, borrowing

· Long-end yields hitting record highs

· Some investors go short on yen, bet against JGBs

As Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi was finalising her $137 billion spending plan last month, which in recent weeks has put Japan into a standoff with investors over the outlook for government finances, a bond chart was brought to her attention.

Finance Minister Satsuki Katayama pulled up the chart on her tablet at a November 17 meeting in Takaichi's official residence. It showed selling, which drives up long-term borrowing rates.

The prime minister's expression turned serious, according to a person familiar with the encounter.

"The finance minister was becoming more vigilant," the person said. "The prime minister also seemed quite concerned about the weak yen and bond-price declines."

The person asked not to be identified because they were not authorised to speak with the media. But the concern they described was well-placed, because Takaichi is facing a challenge from the markets that she needs to fund her agenda.

At stake was not only her massive stimulus package, which will be paid for largely through borrowing, but the direction of the ailing yen- in real terms near record lows - and longer-term investor faith in Japanese assets.

Takaichi's meeting with Katayama and other top officials marked the beginning of a shift in rhetoric aimed at soothing investor concerns, though it is too early to say whether it can steady the market in a durable way and keep bond vigilantes out of Japan.

Japan's benchmark 10-year yield rose to its highest point since 2007 on Friday and has climbed 25.5 basis points in four weeks, the sharpest rise in nearly three years and one that has begun to send ripples through global markets.

The situation is all the more delicate because of Japan's heavy debt - its debt-to-GDP ratio is by far the highest of any developed country - and how its bond market is in transition as buying from both the central bank and insurers dries up.

Addressing the risks, Takaichi told Parliament last week that there was no possibility of a "Truss shock," downplaying parallels with the 2022 selloff in gilts and the pound that sank British Prime Minister Liz Truss' plan for unfunded tax cuts.

She has also softened her previous resistance to monetary policy tightening and promised to limit extra borrowing. In addition, she has unveiled other initiatives including what some analysts have called the Japanese version of DOGE to cut wasteful government spending.

On Friday, Katayama said the government was monitoring markets and would ensure the sustainability of Japan's public finances and maintain investor confidence.

Takaichi's office did not respond to a Reuters request for comment on her November 17 meeting.

"Takaichi's plan is to expand the growth potential of Japan ... but if that growth doesn't materialise, then the only thing remaining is the huge amount of government debt," said Toshinobu Chiba, a Tokyo-based fund manager at Simplex Asset Management.

"And that's the problem."

Thomson ReutersJapan yields soar as market braces for hikes and fiscal pressure

WHO'S GOING TO BUY THESE BONDS?

Takaichi, who came to power after her predecessor quit, has a reputation as a disciple of Shinzo Abe's "Abenomics," the massive monetary and fiscal stimulus programme aimed at rescuing Japan from stagflation that kicked off more than a decade ago.

What surprised investors was how little of that was jettisoned when she took office, despite inflation running at 3% and the national debt exceeding 1.3 quadrillion yen ($8.5 trillion).

Takaichi appointed a dovish coterie of economic advisors and told Parliament last month she would water down Japan's fiscal target to allow for multi-year spending on key growth areas.

And when an early draft of the stimulus plan was crafted by the finance ministry, she quickly turned it down because it was too modest in size, according to the Nikkei newspaper.

"What you have is, I would say, a very loose policy mix overall and basically a monetary boom," said Ian Samson, a multi-asset portfolio manager at Fidelity International.

"I'm personally short yen because I think that's the path of least resistance."

Extra bond sales will also test an already fragile market, where demand - especially for long-dated paper - has traditionally been uneven from foreign investors and has been drying up for years from domestic banks and insurers.

After accounting for redemptions and decreased purchases by the Bank of Japan, net supply in the market will jump by nearly 11 trillion yen in 2026 from 58 trillion in 2025, according to Bank of America estimates.

"The problem is ... who's going to buy these bonds?" said Sally Greig, head of global bonds at Scottish long-only manager Baillie Gifford. "We've still got more supply to absorb and Japan's not the only one spending money."

Thomson ReutersYen slides back towards long-term lows

SHORT YEN

Some dealers said there had even been a small increase in short interest in bonds, particularly over the past week, though positions were small.

"The dynamics in the JGB market are more indicative of a lack of buying interest, rather than outright selling," said Daiki Hayashi, head of Japan market sales and marketing at J.P. Morgan in Tokyo.

Bets against the yen, however, may start to pick up, despite Takaichi's preference for a stronger currency and a recent escalation of intervention warnings, traders say.

"There would definitely be interest to look at shorting the yen if we can move to between 153 and 154 (per dollar)," said Patrick Law, head of APAC fixed-income, currencies and commodities trading at Bank of America in Hong Kong.

The yentraded at 155 per dollar on Friday and has slid some 5% versus the dollar since Takaichi was appointed as leader of Japan's ruling party in early October.

To be sure, positioning in the market is not clear because data has been delayed by the U.S. government shutdown, and there remain a number of forecasts for a stronger yen.

Morgan Stanley, for example, expects the yen to hit 140 per dollar in the first half of 2026 and chief Asia and emerging-market equity strategist Jonathan Garner said yields were rising as part of a healthy reflation of the economy.

And that still makes for a difficult moment to step into the bond market.

"Investors, including pensions and banks, still have a big capacity to buy more JGBs," said J.P. Morgan's Hayashi, particularly around the details of the government's bond-issuance plan. "What they need is greater transparency."

"Until this is clarified, I think it will likely remain difficult for investors to buy JGBs aggressively."

Source: TradingView

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Adam

Commodity

Market Overview

Crude oil climbed to a two-week high as geopolitical tensions tightened global supply expectations. Disruptions to key export routes pushed Russian product shipments down to 1.7 million bpd, a three-year low, while tanker storage surged 12 percent to 124.6 million barrels, signaling constrained flow.

Saudi Arabia’s price cut for Asian buyers underscored softer demand, tempering gains. Meanwhile, OPEC+ maintained its plan to pause output increases amid forecasts for a Russian product surplus next year.

US crude inventories remain 3 percent below seasonal norms, and rig counts dropped to a four-year low, adding further uncertainty to oil and natural gas forecasts.

Natural Gas Price Forecast

Natural Gas (NG) Price Chart

Natural Gas (NG) is trading around $5.08, respecting a rising channel that has guided price action since late November. The upper boundary near $5.11 is acting as immediate resistance, with recent candles showing hesitation through small upper wicks.

Support sits at the mid-channel line near $4.95, followed by stronger structure at $4.80. The 50-EMA is rising and holding beneath price, confirming a steady uptrend, while the 200-EMA provides deeper support near $4.69.

RSI remains just below 60, indicating controlled bullish momentum without overbought conditions. A breakout above $5.11 may open $5.26 and $5.40, while a drop below $4.95 risks a move toward $4.80 and the lower channel line.

WTI Oil Price Forecast

WTI Price Chart

WTI Crude Oil (USOIL) is trading around $59.55, moving inside a rising channel with clear support at $59.20 and resistance near $60.01. Recent 2H candles show rejection wicks at the upper boundary, signaling supply near $60. Price is repeatedly holding the mid-channel trendline, keeping the short-term structure intact.

The 50-EMA and 200-EMA remain flat, showing a balanced market. RSI is hovering around 50, indicating neutral momentum but no overextended conditions.

A dip toward $59.20 could attract buyers if the lower trendline holds. A break below that level exposes $58.40. A close above $60.01 would confirm strength and open the path toward $60.80 and $61.46.

Brent Oil Price Forecast

Brent Price Chart

Brent Oil (UKOIL) is trading near $63.20, sitting inside a tightening symmetrical triangle formed by descending resistance from $63.61 and rising support from the $61.85–$62.50 region. Recent 2H candles show hesitation at the triangle’s upper boundary, with small rejection wicks signaling supply around $63.60.

The 50-EMA is flattening while price fluctuates around the 200-EMA, showing indecision ahead of a breakout. RSI holds near 50, reflecting balanced momentum.

A move below $63.00 exposes the lower trendline at $62.80, while a breakdown opens $62.53 and $61.85. A clean close above $63.61 would invalidate the triangle and allow upside toward $64.40 and $65.07. The pattern remains neutral until price leaves the apex.

Source: fxempire

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Michelle

Forex

Economic

Canada's unemployment rate once again defied expectations and fell to a 16-month low in November as a solid gain in part-time jobs boosted the number of people employed for the third time in a row, data showed on Friday.

The unemployment rate fell 0.4 percentage points in November to 6.5%, the lowest since July 2024, Statistics Canada said, adding it was led by 53,600 net job gains in November mainly among youth.

The job gains were driven by a 63,000 net additions in part-time workforce linked to healthcare and social assistance sector, StatsCan said.

With three months in a row of job gains, the Canadian economy has now added 181,000 new jobs since September, offsetting an almost no change in jobs for the first eight months when U.S. tariffs and trade uncertainty choked hiring.

Analysts polled by Reuters had forecast employment to reduce by 5,000 jobs in November and the jobless rate to tick up to 7%.

The improvement in unemployment rate was also helped by a reduction in total labor force as immigration curbs instituted by the government sent less people into the job market.

YOUTH EMPLOYMENT IMPROVES

Canada's unemployment rate had been steadily climbing since March when President Trump unleashed a raft of tariffs on critical sectors such as steel, aluminum, cars and every other industry that did not comply with a free trade deal.

The impact has been more acute among the youth, or those aged between 15 and 24 years.

But November and October were the outlier. Employment in this category was up by 50,000 in November, and with October, these were the first jumps in youth employment since the start of the year, StatsCan said.

The youth unemployment rate fell 1.3 percentage points to 12.8% in November, following a slight decline in October. In September the youth unemployment rate had peaked at a 15-year high.

Employment among the core-aged group, which account for two-thirds of the total labor force, was little changed in November.

The average hourly wage of permanent employees - a gauge closely tracked by the Bank of Canada to ascertain inflationary trends - stayed at 4% in November, same as the previous month.

Source: Investing

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Adam

Economic

A 2025 refrain many of us likely have heard would be: “You’re buying that? You’re doing that? In this economy?”

But this problem does not seem to extend to the world’s most valuable company Nvidia, which is sitting on a problem most of us would like to have: having too much cash.

At the end of October, Nvidia had $60.6 billion in cash and short-term investments. That’s up from $13.3 billion in January 2023, just after OpenAI released ChatGPT.

And this is even after splashing out billions of dollars on stakes in companies: $1 billion for Nokia, $5 billion for Intel, $10 billion for Anthropic—and a jaw-dropping $100 billion commitment to OpenAI still under discussion.

To add to this, Nvidia announced it would invest $2 billion in Synopsys this week.

Nvidia, which has gone from a niche maker of graphic cards to the world’s most valuable company, has also made $37 billion in buybacks and dividends, with a further $60 billion authorised.

When your biggest challenge is figuring out how to spend $60 billion, you’re living the ultimate corporate luxury.

To take a line from ABBA: “Money money money, must be funny, in Nvidia’s world.”

What you need to know today

Microsoft Office price hikes. Microsoft said Thursday that it will increase the prices of Office productivity software subscriptions for commercial and government clients on July 1. The company has been facing increased competition in recent years from Google.

India cuts rates. The Reserve Bank of India cut its policy rate by 25 basis points to 5.25%, matching forecasts. The bank delivered a unanimous reduction, citing “weakness in some key economic indicators,” even as headline inflation eased significantly.

‘China’s Nvidia’ IPO. Shares of Moore Threads, a Beijing-based graphics processing unit (GPU) manufacturer often referred to as “China’s Nvidia,” soared by more than 400% on its debut in Shanghai following its $1.1 billion listing.

Markets little changed. U.S. markets traded mixed Thursday stateside as investors assessed a report showing announced job cuts in November from U.S. employers surpassed 1 million for the year. Markets in Asia slid, with Japan leading losses.

[PRO] AI stocks at a reasonable price? Investors should turn to less explored pockets of the market to find stocks that are a play on the artificial intelligence boom but also offer growth at a reasonable price, Citigroup analysts say.

And finally...

China said it was open to importing more goods from France in exchange for a “fair, conducive environment” for Chinese businesses in the European nation, President Xi Jinping told his counterpart Emmanuel Macron on Thursday as they met in Beijing.

The French president kicked off a 3-day visit to China on Wednesday — his first trip to Beijing in more than two years — on the heels of growing frictions over a range of topics including trade imbalance and the long-running war in Ukraine.

In a separate readout from the French government, Macron told Xi that the two countries must work together based on “a balanced relationship,” while urging Beijing to help end the Russia-Ukraine war.

Source: cnbc

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Adam

Commodity

Russia-Ukraine Conflict

Oil prices were steady on Friday, supported by stalled Ukraine peace talks, though gains were offset by expectations of a supply glut.

Brent crude was down 8 cents, or 0.1%, to $63.18 per barrel by 1032 GMT. U.S. West Texas Intermediate dipped 14 cents, or 0.2%, to $59.53 a barrel.

For the week, Brent was largely stable and WTI was on track to log a gain of about 1.7%, marking a second straight weekly increase.

"It is quite flat today and this week had a narrow trading range," said Tamas Vargas, an oil market analyst at PVM. "The lack of progress in the Ukrainian peace talks provides a bullish backdrop but on the other hand, resilient OPEC production provides a bearish backstop. These two opposing forces make trading seemingly quiet."

The market is also assessing the impact of a possible U.S. Fed rate cut and tensions with Venezuela, both of which could boost oil prices, analysts said.

Of economists surveyed in a November 28 to December 4 Reuters poll, 82% expected a 25-basis-point interest rate reduction at next week's Federal Reserve policy meeting. A rate cut would stimulate economic growth and energy demand.

"Looking ahead, supply factors remain in focus. A peace deal with Russia would bring more barrels to the market and likely push prices down," said Anh Pham, a senior research specialist at LSEG.

"On the other hand, any geopolitical escalation will drive prices higher. OPEC+ has agreed to keep production steady until early next year, so it adds some support for prices too," he said.

Markets also continued to brace for a potential U.S. military incursion into Venezuela after President Donald Trump said late last week the U.S. would start taking action to stop Venezuelan drug traffickers on land "very soon".

Rystad Energy said in a note that such a move could put at risk Venezuela's 1.1 million barrels per day of crude oil production, which goes mostly to China.

Prices were also boosted this week by the failure of U.S. talks in Moscow to achieve any significant breakthrough over the war in Ukraine, which could have included a deal to let Russian oil back into the market.

Those factors kept prices supported despite a growing surplus.

Saudi Arabia cut its January Arab Light crude selling prices to Asia to the lowest level in five years amid oversupply, according to a document reviewed by Reuters on Thursday.