Mexico-US Trade Agreement Faces Growing Uncertainties Amid Trump's Tariff Threats

China–U.S. Trade War

Summary:

Claudia Sheinbaum, the President of Mexico, cautioned that the country intends to take strong action against the US if Trump’s new tariff on Mexican imports is not suspended.

She emphasized that a suitable trade agreement must be reached by the August 1 deadline. The announcement came after it pledged to impose a 30% tariff threat on the country’s imports to the US, that is, if it failed to succeed in its mission to put an end to drug cartels.

In a statement, Sheinbaum clarified their motive, stating that they only need a fair agreement with the US. According to her, if it fails to provide one by August 1, they will be forced to take steps that they will inform them about.

Mexico-US trade agreement faces growing uncertainties amid Trump’s tariff threats

Washington had earlier announced plans to impose a 17% duty on fresh tomatoes imported to the US from Mexico. This did not please Mexico’s president. Respondingly, Sheinbaum hoped to make known the measures the country would take, including for tomato farmers, to counter the tariff threat.

Sheibaum stated that they believed they could reach an agreement with the US. However, based on her argument, it was essential to have a backup plan since they needed to get ready for all possibilities.

Notably, Mexico is pivotal in importing fresh tomatoes to the US. According to data from sources, the country imports approximately two-thirds of the fresh tomatoes consumed in the US.

In the meantime, the US Commerce Department announced a cancellation of a 2019 trade agreement with Mexico that ended an investigation on Mexico’s countervailing duty. This amounted to a valuation of $3 billion of Mexican exports to the US annually.

Mexico’s tomato export agreement was first made in 1996, whereby the two governments vowed to control it and resolve US allegations against Mexico concerning “unfair trade” practices. The agreement was updated six years ago to stop an investigation into dumping and settle tariff issues.

On the other hand, Trump is still focused on striking as many trade deals as possible, and he pledges to impose his threatening tariffs on nearly all of his trading partners.

Mexico vows that no other country can substitute Mexican tomatoes in the US market

Following the US’s assertion to withdraw from the tomato agreement with Mexico, Mexico demonstrated strong confidence in renewing the agreement.

The economy and agriculture ministries considered the 17.09% duty on Mexican tomatoes imported to the United States unfairly “underpriced.” Based on their argument, it did not favour Mexican producers and the US industry’s interests.

To curb this, the Mexican government intends to support its tomato farmers and expand its market overseas as it negotiates a deal to strip out the tomato duty.

A coalition of five Mexican agriculture associations, including representatives from Baja California and Sinaloa states, said they would work with the Mexican government to develop more solutions to the problem.

They acknowledged that no other country can substitute Mexican tomatoes in the market, which they have developed through hard work and creativity over the last 120 years.

US Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick shared his view on the topic of discussion. According to Lutnick, unfair trade practices have hurt their farmers by lowering the prices of their crops, such as tomatoes.

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Daniel Carter

Central Bank

Economic

The U.S. central bank will probably need to leave interest rates where they are for a while longer to ensure inflation stays low in the face of upward pressure from the Trump administration's tariffs, Dallas Federal Reserve Bank President Lorie Logan said on Tuesday.

"My base case is that we'll need to keep interest rates modestly restrictive for some time to complete the work of returning inflation sustainably to the 2% target," Logan said in remarks prepared for delivery to the World Affairs Council of San Antonio.

"It's also possible that some combination of softer inflation and a weakening labor market will call for lower rates fairly soon," she said, noting that tariffs may not push up inflation as much or as persistently as expected, and that slight signs of cooling in recent labor market data along with pessimism among businesses and households could portend a worsening outlook for economic activity.

The Fed has kept its policy rate in the 4.25%-4.50% range since last December. Most policymakers have signaled they want to wait at least a couple more months before resuming rate cuts because they are worried that higher prices from tariffs could undo what has been several months of relatively benign inflation data.

The rise in consumer prices in June suggests that inflation by the Fed's targeted measure -- the 12-month increase in the price index for personal consumption expenditures, which in May was 2.3% -- will "probably move up a bit," Logan said.

"I'd like to see low inflation continue longer to be convinced," she said.

At the same time, the labor market is solid, the stock market is at near all-time highs, and fiscal policy appears set to be a "tailwind" for growth, she said. Earlier this month Congress passed President Donald Trump's domestic policy bill that makes his 2017 tax cuts permanent, among other measures.

"All this adds up, for me, to a base case in which monetary policy needs to hold tight for a while longer to bring inflation sustainably back to target — and in this base case, we can sustain maximum employment even with modestly restrictive policy," Logan said.

Cutting rates too soon, she said, would risk deeper economic scars and a longer road to price stability. Cutting rates too late risks allowing the labor market to weaken more, though the Fed would "have the option of cutting rates further to get employment back on track," Logan said.

For now, Logan said, monetary policy is "well positioned," a phrase that Fed Chair Jerome Powell has repeatedly used to describe the Fed's readiness to act when the data signal it is time.

Source: Yahoo Finance

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Daniel Carter

Political

“He's an option and he's very good,” Trump told reporters on Tuesday when asked directly about Bessent being a potential successor.

Asked by a reporter whether Bessent was the top option, Trump responded, “Well, he's not, because I like the job he's doing.”

Trump also again lambasted Powell over renovations at the central bank that the president and his allies have seized on, arguing that the work has been plagued by cost overruns. Trump suggested that the renovation costs were “pretty disgraceful” and could be a fireable offense, but stopped short of saying he planned to push out the Fed chief over the flap.

“I think he's a total stiff, but the one thing I didn't see him as is the guy that needed a palace to live in,” Trump said.

Powell has called media reports about the renovations inaccurate but earlier this week made a formal request for the bank's inspector general to review the renovation.

The president has kept up pressure on Powell to lower interest rates, which the central bank has held steady this year.

Trump's comments came hours after Bessent in an interview on Bloomberg Television suggested that Powell should step down from the bank's board when his term as chair ends in May 2026, saying that markets would react poorly to the idea of a shadow Fed chief.

“There's been a lot of talk of a shadow Fed chair causing confusion in advance of his or her nomination. And I can tell you, I think it'd be very confusing for the market for a former Fed chair to stay on also,” Bessent said.

Powell's term as a Fed governor doesn't end until January 2028, leaving it possible for him to remain at the central bank — and to participate in monetary policymaking — even after his tenure as the chair comes up next May.

Bessent also said that a “formal process” to find a successor to Powell had started.

Asked whether Trump has asked Bessent himself to serve as Fed chair, the Treasury chief noted that he was “part of the decision-making process” and said it was “President Trump's decision, and it will move at his speed.”

Source: Bloomberg Europe

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Manuel

Economic

China–U.S. Trade War

Chinese state firm employee Zhang Jinming makes up for a 24% cut to his salary by delivering food for three hours every night after work and on weekends - and hopes he can avoid awkward encounters with colleagues.

"Being a part-time delivery person while working for a state-owned enterprise isn't exactly considered respectable," said Zhang, whose real estate firm pays him 4,200 yuan ($585) per month, down from 5,500 yuan.

While China has supported economic growth by keeping its ports and factories humming, the lack of real demand has hit profits, in turn squeezing workers like Zhang through wage cuts and forcing them to moonlight.

"There's just no other way," added the 30-year-old, who rides his scooter until 11.30 pm, making 60-70 yuan per evening. "The pay cut has put me under huge pressure. Many colleagues have resigned and I took over their workload."

China's economy posted robust 5.2% growth in the second quarter, showing its export-heavy model has so far withstood U.S. tariffs. But beneath the headline resilience, cracks are widening.

Contract and bill payment delays are rising, including among export champions like the autos and electronics industries and at utilities, whose owners, indebted local governments, have to run a tight shop while shoring up tariff-hit factories.

Ferocious competition for a slice of external demand, hit by global trade tensions, is crimping industrial profits, fuelling factory-gate deflation even as export volumes climb. Workers bear the brunt of companies cutting costs.

Falling profits and wages shrank tax revenues, pressuring state employers like Zhang's to cut costs as well. In pockets of the financial system, non-performing loans are surging as authorities push banks to lend more.

For the most part, the lopsided nature of growth in the world's second-largest economy is a product of policies that favour exporters over consumers.

Economists have long urged Beijing to redirect support to domestically focused sectors, such as education and healthcare, or boost household consumption - for instance, by bolstering welfare - or risk a slowdown in the second half of the year.

Max Zenglein, Asia-Pacific senior economist at the Conference Board of Asia, describes China as a "dual-speed economy" with strong industry and weak consumption, noting the two are related.

"Some of the economic challenges including low profitability and deflationary pressure are largely driven by continued capacity expansion in the manufacturing and technology sectors," said Zenglein.

"What's unfolding now" in the trade war with the U.S. is "coming back home as a domestic issue."

HIT TO INCOMES

Frank Huang, a 28-year-old teacher in Chongzuo, a city of more than 2 million people near the Vietnam border, in the indebted Guangxi region, says his school has not paid him in two-to-three months, waiting for authorities to provide the funds.

"I can only endure, I don't dare to quit," said Huang, who relies on parents when his 5,000 yuan paycheck doesn't arrive. "If I were married with a mortgage, car loan and child, the pressure would be unimaginable."

Another teacher from Linquan, a rural county of 1.5 million in eastern China, said she is only receiving her basic 3,000 yuan monthly salary. The performance-based part of her pay, usually about 16%, "has been consistently delayed."

"After I pay for gas, parking and property management fees, what's left isn't enough for groceries," said the teacher, who only gave her surname Yun for privacy reasons.

"I feel like begging," added Yun. "If it weren't for my parents, I would starve."

There is no data on payment delays in the government sector. But among industrial firms, arrears have grown quickly in sectors with a strong state presence, either through industrial policy or - like in utilities - through direct ownership.

Arrears in the computer, communication and electronic equipment sector and in autos manufacturing - two priorities for China's economic planners - rose by 16.6% and 11.2%, respectively, in the year through May, faster than the 9% average across industries. Overdue payments were up 17.1% and 11.1% in the water and gas sectors.

These figures suggest liquidity stress and are a side-effect of authorities prioritising output over demand, said Minxiong Liao, senior economist at GlobalData.TS Lombard APAC.

"The result should be slower growth for these champion sectors," in the future, he said.

SPENDING DEFERRED

With incomes under pressure, Beijing is struggling to meet its pledge to lift household consumption and worries are growing that persistent deflation will further damage the economy as consumers defer spending.

Huang Tingting quit her waitress job last month after business at her restaurant - and most shops nearby - plummeted in April, at the height of U.S.-China trade tensions. Responding to plunging revenues, the restaurant owner asked staff to take four unpaid leave days every month.

"I still have to pay rent and live my life," said the 20-year-old from the eastern Jiangsu province, an export powerhouse that's outpacing national growth, explaining why she quit.

In the past, though, she could find another restaurant job in a day or two. This time, she's been unemployed since June. One recruiter told her a job she applied for had more than 10 other candidates.

"The job market this year is worse than last year," said Huang.

Source: Reuters

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Manuel

Cryptocurrency

Stocks

Cantor Fitzgerald’s blank‑cheque affiliate is in late‑stage talks to acquire more than $3 billion in Bitcoin (BTC) from Adam Back’s Blockstream Capital through a transaction that could exceed $4 billion, the Financial Times reported on July 15.

Cantor Equity Partners 1, a special‑purpose acquisition company that raised $200 million in a January IPO, would issue new shares to Back in exchange for as much as 30,000 BTC. The amount represents approximately $3 billion at current prices.

Furthermore, the firm intends to seek up to $800 million in additional outside capital for further Bitcoin purchases. Upon completion of the transaction, the vehicle will be renamed BSTR Holdings.

Deal details

If completed, the deal would mirror a $3.6 billion Bitcoin buying venture, Twenty One Capital, that Cantor Fitzgerald’s Brandon Lutnick set up with SoftBank and Tether in April.

Combined, the two SPACs could accumulate nearly $10 billion in Bitcoin this year, positioning Cantor as one of the most active institutional buyers of the asset.

Back is best known for inventing Hashcash and co-founding Blockstream in 2014. As part of the deal, Back will swap the contributed Bitcoin for equity in the public firm.

Blockstream Capital’s stake would rise alongside any subsequent purchases the SPAC finances with newly raised capital. Brandon Lutnick was named chair of Cantor Fitzgerald in February after his father, Howard Lutnick, became US Commerce Secretary.

Cantor’s move follows a playbook popularized by Strategy, whose Bitcoin treasury approach has prompted a wave of corporations and SPACs to raise equity or issue convertible bonds to buy BTC outright.

Timing and regulatory backdrop

Negotiators aim to finalize terms as early as this week, placing the announcement in the midst of what Republican lawmakers have branded “Crypto Week,” during which the House is debating multiple digital asset bills.

Cantor’s push also aligns with President Donald Trump’s deregulatory stance toward crypto markets, a shift that executives describe as conducive to large balance sheet allocations.

The transaction would require shareholder approval and review by the Securities and Exchange Commission of updated disclosures detailing the Bitcoin contribution and capital raise.

Should the SPAC complete its acquisition and subsequent fundraising, BSTR Holdings would emerge as one of the world’s largest listed holders of Bitcoin, trailing only Strategy and a handful of spot ETF trusts.

Source: Cryptoslate

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Manuel

Central Bank

Political

JPMorgan Chase (JPM) CEO Jamie Dimon said Tuesday that the independence of the Federal Reserve is "absolutely critical" for Jerome Powell and whoever succeeds him as chairman of the central bank.

"Playing around with the Fed can often have adverse consequences," Dimon told reporters after JPMorgan reported its first quarter earnings, adding that it can produce "the absolute opposite of what may be hoping for."

Wall Street is paying close attention to the drama unfolding in Washington, D.C., as President Trump and other White House officials intensify their pressure on Powell to lower interest rates and conduct a search for his replacement. Powell's term as chair ends in May.

rump has hammered Powell for months over what Trump views as a refusal to ease monetary policy for political and personal reasons. At one point, he mused publicly about removing Powell, before assuring that he wouldn't do so.

Trump's allies in recent weeks have also used another tactic to turn up the pressure on Powell: They have invoked a $2.5 billion renovation of the Fed's headquarters as a way to question the chair's management of the institution and whether he told Congress the truth about the project.

Different administration officials are sending mixed messages about how far they may be willing to go with Powell.

National Economic Council Director Kevin Hassett said Sunday on ABC News's "This Week" that whether the president has the legal authority to fire Powell before his term is up next May "is being looked into" and that "certainly, if there's cause, he does."

But Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent told Bloomberg Tuesday that the president "said numerous times he's not going to fire Jay Powell" and compared Trump's public pressure to former college basketball coach Bobby Knight "working the refs."

"President Trump seems to prefer the Bobby Knight school," he said.

Bessent also said Tuesday that central bank independence is important and noted that "there's a formal process that's already starting" to find Powell's replacement. He also hopes Powell decides to leave the Fed board when his term as chair is up.

"Traditionally, the Fed chair also steps down as a governor," Bessent said, "and there's been a lot of talk of a shadow Fed chair causing confusion in advance of his or her nomination, and I can tell you I think it would be very confusing for the market for a former Fed chair to stay on also."

Bessent is considered among the possible successors to Powell, along with Hassett, former Fed governor Kevin Warsh, and Fed governor Christopher Waller.

"There are a lot of great candidates, and we'll see how rapidly it progresses," Bessent said, without confirming if he was in fact under consideration. "It's President Trump's decision, and it will move at his speed."

As far as who the next pick will be, Dimon said, "Let's just see who the president picks, and you'll be the judge of that when you see the choice ... But I would say it is important they be independent."

Dimon went out of his way to note that the president has said he "is not going to remove Jay Powell."

Another big bank executive, Wells Fargo (WFC) CFO Mike Santomassimo, was also asked Tuesday about the market risk of recent Fed pressure.

He rebuffed concerns. "I think you haven't really seen that'd be a major factor at this point relative to what we're seeing from a risk perspective," Santomassimo told reporters.

Source: Yahoo Finance

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Manuel

Cryptocurrency

Political

President Donald Trump urged House Republicans on July 15 to support a procedural motion that would advance three crypto bills during the chamber’s “Crypto Week,” but lawmakers resisted the bill in today’s voting session.

Trump wrote on Truth Social that “all Republicans should vote yes,” arguing that the GENIUS Act will keep the US “lightyears ahead” of China and Europe in digital asset regulation.

Leadership counts showed some libertarian‑leaning members swung against the rule after it merged the crypto bills with defense spending, despite Trump’s appeal.

Journalist Jake Sherman described the defeat as “a huge blow to crypto’s sway in D.C.” At the same time, seed investor Ryan Wallace said most dissenting votes came from House Freedom Caucus members who opposed bundling the bills with the defense‑spending measure and demanded separate debates.

Representative Chip Roy confirmed that stance, telling reporter Laura Weiss he wants “a hard ban” on a US central bank digital currency (CBDC) and sees the CLARITY Act as equally important. He added that opponents “need to be dealing with this all at once” and will seek future commitments before the GENIUS Act advances.

According to a Fox News report, Trump is “pissed” and is directly pressuring lawmakers who voted against the crypto rule package.

Rule vote stalls the combined package

The failed motion would have combined the GENIUS Act, the CLARITY Act, and the Anti-CBDC Surveillance Act with the fiscal year defense appropriation.

Speaker Mike Johnson said Republicans blocked the rule because “some members really want to emphasize the House’s product.”

Wallace rumored a revised rule for a second vote, and it might happen at about 5 P.M. ET.

The new proposal could decouple the defense bill or split the crypto measures, allowing each to receive individual debate time.

Should it pass, floor debate on the crypto measures could begin on July 16, with final votes aimed for later in the week.

Source: Cryptoslate

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Mexico-US Trade Agreement Faces Growing Uncertainties Amid Trump's Tariff Threats

Source: CryptoSlate

Fed's Logan Says Her Base Case Calls For Holding Rates Steady A While Longer

Source: Yahoo Finance

Trump Says Bessent Isn't Leading Fed Candidate, But 'Very Good’

Source: Bloomberg Europe

Beneath China's Resilient Economy, aLlife of Pay Cuts and Side Hustles

HIT TO INCOMES

SPENDING DEFERRED

Source: Reuters

Cantor Fitzgerald SPAC Nears $4B Deal With Blockstream´s Adam Back to Amass 30,000 Bitcoin

Deal details

Timing and regulatory backdrop

Source: Cryptoslate

JPMorgan's Dimon Warns Against Playing Around With the Fed' as Powell Pressure Mounts

Source: Yahoo Finance

House Rejects Crypto Rule Package Despite Trump´s Call, Push for Second Vote Later Today

Rule vote stalls the combined package

Source: Cryptoslate

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