Markets Today: UK Retail Sales Beat Estimates, Trump Signs Japan Deal, FTSE 100 Bounces Off 100-Day MA. NFP Next

Economic

Summary:

Asian stocks rose on Fed cut hopes and Trump’s Japan deal. UK retail sales beat forecasts, Europe edged higher before U.S. payrolls, while oil slipped and major currencies gained.

Asia Market Wrap - Nikkei Extends Gains, President Trump Signs Executive Order on Japan Deal

On Friday morning, the positive feeling from a strong day on Wall Street carried over to Asian stock markets. This happened because new information continues to show that the U.S. job market is slowing down, which makes investors more confident that the U.S. central bank will cut interest rates this month.

As a result, Asian stocks rose by 0.7%, and stock markets in mainland China also bounced back after they had dropped on Thursday.

Japan's Nikkei .N225 rose 0.9% and Taiwan's stock benchmark .TWII climbed 1.1%. Both those markets are close to recent record highs.

Hong Kong's Hang Seng .HSI added 0.8%, while mainland Chinese blue chips .CSI300 advanced 1%. Australian stocks .AXJO gained 0.5%.

In Japan's bond market, the return on 30-year government bonds fell for a second day on Friday, moving further away from the record high it had reached on Wednesday of 3.255%.

In other news, U.S. President Trump signed an order to make a trade agreement with Japan official. Under the deal, the United States will apply a tax of up to 15% on most goods it imports from Japan. In return, Japan has promised to set up a $550 billion fund to invest in the U.S. The two countries had agreed to this deal back in July but were still finalizing the details until now.

UK Retail Sales Beat Estimates, June Figure Revised Lower

In July, retail sales in the UK grew by a strong 0.6%, which was better than experts had predicted. This increase was driven by a boost in online shopping and clothing sales, helped by good weather and extra spending related to the Women's EURO 2025 soccer tournament.

However, the good news was dampened by a major correction to the sales figures for June, which turned out to be much weaker than first reported. Compared to the same time last year, July sales were up 1.1%. Despite the solid performance in July, the bigger picture suggests a slowdown, as sales over the last three months actually fell, ending a year-long period of growth.

Markets Today: UK Retail Sales Beat Estimates, Trump Signs Japan Deal, FTSE 100 Bounces Off 100-Day MA. NFP Next_1

European Open - European Stocks Edge Higher

European stocks are up slightly this morning as investors cautiously wait for the important U.S. jobs report to be released later today.

Overall, the market is on track to finish a very up-and-down week with a small gain. Technology stocks are the best performers today, boosted by the Swedish company Hexagon, whose shares jumped nearly 7% after it announced a multi-billion dollar deal to sell a part of its business to a U.S. firm.

On the downside, the Danish wind farm company Orsted saw its stock fall 1.3% after it lowered its profit forecast because of a lack of wind. Additionally, shares in the banking software company Temenos dropped sharply after it announced its CEO was leaving immediately.

On the FX front, the U.S. dollar weakened slightly against other major currencies on Friday morning.

The Japanese yen gained strength after Japan finalized a trade deal with the United States that will lower U.S. taxes on imported Japanese cars. USD/JPY trading at 148.21. The New Zealand dollar also climbed, benefiting from a positive day in Asian stock markets.

In other movements, the euro was up 0.1% to 1.1666 to the US Dollar with the British pound, and Australian dollar also seeing small increases against the U.S. dollar. Despite today's dip, the dollar's overall value is still on track to finish the week higher than it started.

Currency Power Balance

Oil prices are falling for the third day in a row on Friday and are now on track to record their first weekly loss in three weeks.

The price decline is being caused by two main factors: growing expectations that major producers will soon increase the supply of oil, and worries about weaker demand for fuel. These demand concerns were heightened by a surprise report showing that the amount of stored crude oil in the U.S. has increased.

Currently, the price for Brent crude, the global standard, is around $66.80 a barrel, while the main U.S. oil price is about $63.25 a barrel.

Economic Data Releases and Final Thoughts

Looking at the economic calendar, the European session has already seen a glut of data releases this morning with UK retail sales and German industrial production. The rest of the session brings Euro Area GDP data (revised) numbers before attention shifts to the US session.

All eyes today are on the U.S. jobs report for August, which is due to be released at 12:30 GMT time. This report is seen as particularly crucial because other data earlier this week has already pointed to a weakening U.S. job market.

Investors are watching closely, as many are already expecting the U.S. central bank, the Federal Reserve, to cut interest rates by 0.25% at its meeting later this month. A weak jobs number today would likely confirm those expectations.

Chart of the Day - FTSE 100 Index

From a technical standpoint, the FTSE 100 has had an interesting week. After completing the Head and Shoulder breakout and reaching the sell target, the index bottomed out on September 2.

We did have a potential double bottom print on September 3 before a rally higher materialized breaking the descending trendline in play from the recent all-time high.

The next moves for the FTSE will be crucial. Today's UK retail sales data may bode well for the index but overall sentiment may shift after today's US Jobs data.

This could have a knock on impact on global markets and weigh on equities in the UK and Europe as well.

Immediate resistance rests at 9271 before the swing high at 9308 comes into focus.

On the downside the FTSE found support this morning at the 100-day MA before bouncing higher. Below that support is provided by 9180 handle and then the 200-day MA at 9165.

FTSE 100 Four-Hour Chart, September 5. 2025

Source: marketpulse

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Economic

MARKET WRAPS

European indexes were higher ahead of a highly-anticipated U.S. nonfarm payrolls report due at 1230 GMT.

While "A September rate cut is likely a done deal," according to J.P.Morgan, "Today's jobs report is more about the Federal Reserve's path from there."

With immigration slowing, modest jobs growth doesn't necessarily indicate a loosening labor market.

"Instead, investors should focus on the unemployment rate and wage growth for a clearer sense of the Fed's next steps."

ING said a major upside surprise could be treated with much more caution than a weaker-than-expected result, as investors might start to doubt the credibility of data under the new leadership at the Bureau of Labor Statistics.

Trump recently nominated conservative economist EJ Antoni to replace BLS head Erika McEntarfer.

Closer to home, the French Prime Minister Francois Bayrou isn't expected to survive a confidence vote on Monday, but Jefferies said its bigger worry about France was about ratings rather than politics.

Fitch Ratings is due to review France on Sept. 12, and if political uncertainty persists, Jefferies sees a case for Fitch downgrading France, even though Moody's Ratings and S&P Global Ratings were unlikely to downgrade the country.

"Risk remains that if France loses the coveted AA level rating (currently AA-) from two or more rating agencies, it could lead to forced selling from some of the Asian accounts."

U.S. Markets:

S&P 500 and Nasdaq-100 futures rose but Dow industrials futures were little changed.

Broadcom shares surged premarket after better-than-expected results.

Forex:

France's confidence vote over the government's budget plans is unlikely to have a significant impact on the euro, ING said.

Prime Minister Bayrou is expected to lose the vote on Monday and a realistic scenario is that President Emmanuel Macron would then choose a new centrist or centre-right prime minister to deliver a watered-down fiscal consolidation package.

Political uncertainty will remain elevated but it probably won't be enough to trigger uncontrolled moves in the euro as a no-confidence outcome is largely priced in, it added.

The dollar fell.

A much weaker-than-expected nonfarm payrolls report would have a bigger dollar impact than much stronger-than-forecast data, ING said.

A major payrolls miss should prompt markets to price in three Fed rate cuts by year-end.

Sterling edged higher after data showed U.K. retail sales rose slightly more than expected during July.

The data comes after BOE Governor Andrew Bailey said earlier in the week that the timing of future interest-rate cuts is now more uncertain amid concerns about inflationary pressures.

Bonds:

Treasury yields fell, extending the previous day's move.

Long-dated yields were driven by growth and inflation expectations and by concerns about fiscal policy, AXA Investment Managers said.

Short-dated government bond yields on the other hand are influenced more by interest-rate expectations.

This helps explain the recent trend for widening gaps between short-dated and long-dated yields as interest rates are reduced but longer-term economic worries persist.

"The decline in global inflation rates since 2022 has allowed central banks to ease, a process that the market expects to continue."

However, concerns that central banks might not meet inflation targets are helping to push long-dated yields higher.

Commerzank said, "Markets should be prepared for a softer payrolls report."

ING said, "The 10-year [Treasury yield] looks to have 4% as a level to aim for, depending on the payrolls number."

However, a job addition data below 50,000 would likely be needed to generate that type of market reaction.

"The closer to zero [in job additions] the more likely a 4% test becomes."

Eurozone government bond yields fell, tracking Treasury yields and reflecting expectations of a further cooling U.S. labor market.

Jefferies remained bearish on French bonds and expected the 10-year French-German bond-yield spread to rise towards 90 basis points.

Ultralong JGBs were expected to decline, but this might require additional action by the Ministry of Finance, according to Citi.

Energy:

Oil prices were set for a weekly loss for the first time in three weeks amid concerns over OPEC+ supply and an unexpected build in U.S. crude stockpiles.

OPEC+'s online meeting on Sunday will be closely watched, as further production increases would exacerbate concerns over a looming supply glut. Meanwhile, a bearish U.S. inventory report further weighed on sentiment.

The latest EIA data showed U.S. crude stocks rose by 2.4 million barrels last week--against expectations of a 2-million-barrel fall--and are now at their highest level since early August, according to ANZ.

Further price declines though would be capped by risks of disruption to Russian supplies from Ukrainian attacks on key energy infrastructure and the spectrum of tougher U.S. sanctions.

Metals:

Gold prices edged higher after pausing from a record-breaking rally as traders locked in profits ahead of the release of the key U.S. data.

The precious metal's surge was largely driven by expectations that the Fed will cut interest rates at its next meeting, concerns about the U.S. central bank's independence following Trump's move to fire Fed governor Lisa Cook, and persistent geopolitical risks.

Now, "The biggest risk from a market perspective is an upside surprise to today's payrolls number," XTB said.

"If rate cut bets get scaled back, then inflation fears could ease, which may hurt the world's most famous inflation hedge."

Copper

The three-month LME copper contract was higher, while that of nickel was lower and zinc was flat.

ANZ said that copper investors were likely weighing concerns of weaker demand in China after EV maker BYD cut its sales targets for the year over intense competition, and supply-side issues after Codelco said its Chile copper production could stagnate over operational challenges.

EMEA HEADLINES

German Manufacturing Orders Drop as Foreign Demand Takes Hit

German factory orders unexpectedly slumped in July, as weaker foreign orders reflected a fragile export market amid increased trade barriers.

Orders dropped 2.9% on month in July, a larger fall than the 0.2% of June, Germany's statistics agency Destatis said Friday. Economists polled by The Wall Street Journal expected a 0.7% rise. It is a third monthly decline in a row and the largest drop since January.

Orsted Cuts Earnings Guidance Following Lower Summer Wind Speeds

Orsted cut its full-year earnings guidance on Friday following lower-than-normal offshore wind speeds during July and August.

The Danish renewable-energy company said the lower wind speeds across its offshore portfolio will impact earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortization by around 1.2 billion Danish kroner ($187.3 million) this year. A construction delay at the Greater Changhua 2b offshore wind farm in Taiwan will also hit earnings by around 300 million kroner, it said.

Revolut Names Former SocGen Boss Oudea as Western Europe Chair

Revolut named Societe Generale's former chief executive Frederic Oudea as chairman for its western European operations as the fintech seeks to deepen its presence in the region.

The U.K. digital bank-used by more than 60 million customers globally through an app-set its sights on Paris to establish its Western Europe headquarters to complement its existing base in Lithuania. The group said in May that it intends to invest more than 1 billion euros ($1.17 billion) in France over the next three years, ramp up hiring in the capital and apply for a banking license with local regulators.

What's Next for Giorgio Armani's Fashion Empire?

When Giorgio Armani died at 91, the fashion world lost not only a designer but one of the last great owner-operators in the luxury industry.

Unlike rivals who ceded control to conglomerates such as LVMH or Kering, Armani kept his company private, answering only to himself and running it with the precision of a businessman as much as the eye of a couturier. Fiercely protective of that independence, he remained effectively the sole shareholder of a group that generated about $2.7 billion in sales last year, and built safeguards to ensure the house would resist an outside takeover.

GLOBAL NEWS

Trump Is Making Strides in His Takeover of the Fed

WASHINGTON-President Trump's sprint to take control of the Federal Reserve played out in a striking split-screen fashion on Thursday, just two weeks before the central bank's next policy meeting.

On Capitol Hill, Trump's pick to fill a vacant seat on the Fed's board faced questioning over an unprecedented plan to keep a White House job while serving on the Fed. A few blocks away, government lawyers defended in federal court the first-ever attempted presidential firing of a sitting Fed governor.

Trump Prepares to Start North American Trade Deal Renegotiation

The U.S. is preparing to start renegotiating its largest free trade deal-the U.S.-Mexico-Canada Agreement.

Within the next month, the Office of the U.S. Trade Representative will begin public consultations on renegotiating the deal, which it must do by Oct. 4 under the 2020 law that implemented the pact. A request for comment from companies and unions could be issued as soon as this week, say people familiar with the administration's thinking, though President Trump's team has previously indicated to stakeholders that a request was close, before pushing back the release date.

Tech CEOs Take Turns Praising Trump at White House Dinner

President Trump on Thursday led leaders of the world's biggest technology companies in a version of his cabinet meetings, in which each participant takes a turn thanking and praising him, this time for his efforts to promote investments in chip manufacturing and artificial intelligence.

Source: morningstar

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MarketPulse by OANDA Group

Stocks

Technical Analysis

Economic

The Hong Kong 33 CFD Index (a proxy for Hang Seng Index futures) delivered the anticipated bullish run between 13 and 25 August, reaching the short-term resistance level of 25,750 and posting an intraday high of 25,946 on 25 August.Thereafter, its price actions have evolved into a choppy minor corrective decline sequence of -4.3% (high to low) within a medium-term uptrend phase from 25 August to 28 August, as short-term traders took profit due to fears of an overheated bull-run seen in the China “A” shares market towards the end of August

Margin financing in the Shanghai stocks rose to record highs in line with the Shanghai Stock Exchange Composite Index hitting a 10-year high, bringing the memories of the bursting of the 2015 stock market bubble in China that saw a massive decline of close to -50% in their respective benchmark stock indices.

Fundamentals continued to improve in the Chinese stock markets

Hang Seng Index Technical: Recent Sell-Off Overdone, Bullish Trend Remains Intact_1

Fig. 1: China CSI 300 1-month forward EPS growth y/y as of Aug 2025 (Source: MacroMicro)

Hang Seng Index Technical: Recent Sell-Off Overdone, Bullish Trend Remains Intact_2

Fig. 2: China non-official Manufacturing & Services PMI as of Aug 2025 (Source: MacroMicro)

The monthly average of the 12-month forward earnings per share (EPS) growth for China’s CSI 300 (comprising component stocks from Shanghai and Shenzhen stock exchanges) has improved significantly in the past eight months; it rose from -7.4% y/y in January 2025 to -1.8% y/y in August 2025 (see Fig. 1).

The privately compiled (non-official) Manufacturing and Services PMIs, which track small and medium-sized enterprises in China, have returned to expansionary territory. The Manufacturing PMI rose to 50.5 in August 2025, recovering from a near three-year low of 48.3 in May. Similarly, the Services PMI strengthened to 53 in August, up from 50.6 in June (see Fig. 2).

These improvements in leading Chinese economic indicators suggest that deflation risks have eased, creating the potential for a positive feedback loop that could further support the Chinese stock market and, by extension, benefit Hong Kong equities.

Right now, let’s take a deep dive into the short-term (1 to 3 days) directional bias and key levels to watch on the Hong Kong 33 CFD Index.

Fig. 3: Hong Kong 33 CFD Index minor trend as of 5 Sep 2025 (Source: TradingView)Preferred trend bias (1-3 days)

The minor corrective decline from the 25 August 2025 high to the 28 August 2025 low of the Hong Kong 33 CFD Index is likely to have ended where a potential fresh bullish impulsive up move is in progress.

Bullish bias above 24,880 key medium-term pivotal support for the Hong Kong 33 CFD Index. A clearance above 25,490 intermediate resistances sees the next resistances coming in at 25,690, 25,890, and 26,120 in the first step (see Fig. 3).

Key elements

● The 24,880 key medium-term pivotal support on the Hong Kong 33 CFD Index is defined by the rising 50-day moving average, the lower boundary of the medium-term ascending channel from 2 June 2025 low, and the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement of the prior short-term bullish impulsive up move sequence from 1 August 2025 low to 25 August 2025 high.

● Today’s price actions of the Hong Kong 33 CFD Index have reintegrated back above the 20-day moving average, now acting as an intermediate support at 25,260.

● The hourly RSI momentum indicator of the Hong Kong 33 CFD Index has flashed out a bullish divergence condition at its oversold zone seen on Thursday’s US session, 4 September.

Alternative trend bias (1 to 3 days)

A break below the 24,880 key support jeopardizes the medium-term uptrend phase of the Hong Kong 33 CFD Index for an extension of the corrective decline to expose the next support zone of 24,730/24,620 in the first step.

Source: MarketPulse by OANDA Group

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Economic

Commodity

Copper prices rose on Friday as a weaker dollar and hopes for stronger demand in China provided support ahead of a U.S. jobs report later in the session that may provide more clarity on the U.S. interest rate trajectory.

Three-month copper on the London Metal Exchangerose 0.4% to $9,939.50 per metric ton by 1023 GMT. The contract touched a five-month high of $10,038 on Wednesday on mounting expectations of the U.S. interest rate cut later in the month.

Lower interest rates improve prospects for growth-dependent metals, while a weaker U.S. currency, last down 0.3%, makes dollar-priced metals more attractive for other currency holders.

Indicating that tight copper concentrate supply kept hitting smelters in Asia, one of Japan's top copper smelters JX Advanced Metalssaid it was likely to cut copper production by tens of thousands of tons in the fiscal year ending in March.

In the U.S., inventories in the Comex-owned warehouses (HG-STX-COMEX) already at their 22-year-high kept climbing up this week due to the remaining premium of the Comex copper futures against the LME benchmark, recently at 1-2%.

The premium (LMECMXCUc3) saw a slump at the end of July as Washington excluded refined copper metal from its import tariffs on some copper products, but the fall has not been enough to cause an outflow from the U.S. stocks, a copper trader said.

Stocks in the LME-registered warehouses (MCUSTX-TOTAL) were broadly stable, having risen 74% since late June, and keeping the discount for the cash over the three-month forward (CMCU0-3) at $67 a ton.

"Even as copper remains distorted by the hangover of U.S. stock building, LME spread weakness has been suggestive of a loosening ex-China market but any price weakness appears to have been met by Chinese buying," analysts at Macquarie said in a note.

The Yangshan copper premium (SMM-CUYP-CN), which reflects demand for copper imported into China, was steady on Friday at its three-month high of $57 a ton.

Among other London metals, aluminiumrose 0.5% to $2,603.50 a ton, zincincreased 0.6% to $2,860.50, leadclimbed 0.4% to $1,993, tingained 0.4% to $34,630, while nickelwas up 0.3% at $15,270.

Source: TradingView

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Political

Lawmakers of Japan's ruling party will vote on Monday whether to hold an extraordinary leadership election that could oust embattled premier Shigeru Ishiba and have a significant impact on the world's fourth largest economy.

Concern over political uncertainty has led to a sell-off in the yen and Japanese government bonds (JGB) this week, with the yield on 30-year bonds hitting a record high on Wednesday.

While the policy paralysis around such a vote could add pain for an economy hit by US tariffs, markets are focusing more on the chance of Ishiba's replacement by an advocate of looser fiscal and monetary policy such as Sanae Takaichi, who has criticised the Bank of Japan's interest rate hikes.

"The dominant market bet is for the LDP to hold a leadership race and for Ishiba, known as a fiscal hawk, to lose his job," said Katsutoshi Inadome, senior strategist at Sumitomo Mitsui Trust Asset Management.

"We'll likely see further selling in Japanese government bonds, as whoever succeeds Ishiba probably will be more open to loosening fiscal policy than him."

Ishiba has refused calls from within his Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) to step down and take responsibility for its July loss in an upper house election.

Staying in power, however, has become increasingly hard for him. Having lost a majority in both houses of parliament, his ruling coalition needs opposition support to pass legislation.

Wary of being attached to the unpopular premier, opposition parties have refused to cooperate. Even some of Ishiba's cabinet members are now calling for the choice of a new party leader.

Party rules require at least half the LDP members to request holding the race, which could follow this month or in October.

Such a contest could delay parliament's passage of an expected supplementary budget aimed at cushioning the blow to households from rising living costs.

Economic support package

Ishiba told reporters on Friday he plans to compile this autumn a package of measures to support the economy. Asked whether he would step down, he said: "All I can say is that my government will fulfil its responsibility to the public."

Eurasia Group gave odds of 60% that Ishiba would not survive.

"Ishiba's poor performance as party leader in lower and upper house elections and events in recent days, including former prime minister Aso Taro announcing his support for the special election, has turned the tide against Ishiba," said David Boling, director of Japan and Asian Trade at Eurasia.

That puts the focus on his potential successor.

While the LDP lacks a majority in parliament, its leader would still be the favourite to become next prime minister, due to a fragmented opposition.

The choice could affect not just the scale of fiscal stimulus, but the timing of the BOJ's next interest rate hike, analysts say.

Front-runners include 44-year-old Shinjiro Koizumi, a charismatic agriculture minister popular with the public, but whose views on economic policy are unknown.

Takaichi, who represents the LDP's right wing, is also seen by some analysts as a strong candidate to become Japan's first female prime minister. She lost the September leadership race to Ishiba in a run-off vote.

While several other candidates are expected to be in the fray, Takaichi stands out for her vocal opposition to BOJ rate hikes and calls to ramp up spending to underpin the fragile economy.

After ending a decade-long, massive stimulus programme last year, the BOJ raised interest rates to 0.5% in January on the view that Japan was on the cusp of sustainably meeting its inflation target of 2%.

Most economists polled by Reuters expect the central bank to raise rates again this year, with some betting on a hike in October.

"Under Takaichi, fiscal discipline will be out the window," Inadome said. "Markets still remember the time she made it to the run-up in September, and triggered huge selling in JGBs."

Source: Theedgemarkets

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Michelle

Economic

Stocks

The downward correction in the US Tech stock index is coming to an end. The US Tech forecast for next week is positive.

US Tech forecast: key trading points

Recent data: US initial jobless claims for last week came in at 237 thousand
Market impact: the effect on the US stock market may be mixed as unemployment data is still ahead

US Tech fundamental analysis

Initial jobless claims in the US reached 237 thousand compared to the forecast of 230 thousand and the previous 229 thousand. The figure is moderately above expectations and confirms a gradual softening of the labour market: layoffs are becoming more frequent and employment momentum is cooling. The level itself remains far from recessionary territory, but the trend indicates less economic overheating and weaker wage-driven inflationary pressure.

On the one hand, a softer labour market reduces inflation risks and increases the likelihood of earlier Federal Reserve policy easing, which supports equity valuations through lower Treasury yields. On the other hand, if jobless claims continue to rise, concerns over economic growth and corporate earnings will mount, limiting risk appetite.

US Tech technical analysis

The technology sector is sensitive to discount rates: falling yields typically expand multiples and support large growth companies, cloud services, and software with predictable subscription flows. However, worsening macroeconomic expectations may cool cyclical tech segments, particularly semiconductors and equipment, where demand depends on clients’ capital expenditure. Internet platforms and advertising benefit from steady consumer demand, while signs of a slowdown would have a neutral-to-negative effect. SaaS and cloud are relatively resilient due to their contractual model, yet remain rate-sensitive. Hardware manufacturers stay reliant on investment cycles.

US Tech technical analysis for 5 September 2025

The US Tech index broke below the previous support level at 23,465.0, with a new support line formed at 23,030.0. Resistance stands at 23,875.0. The downtrend is nearing completion, and the price will likely break above the resistance level, with the next upside target at 24,460.0.

The following scenarios are considered for the US Tech price forecast:

Pessimistic US Tech scenario: a breakout below the 23,030.0 support level could push the index to 22,390.0
Optimistic US Tech scenario: a breakout above the 23,875.0 resistance level could boost the index to 24,460.0

Summary

The persistence of deviations is critical: several weeks with claims above 250 thousand would strengthen the signal of slowing employment. The market will compare data with the jobs report, inflation indicators, and Treasury yield dynamics. Lower yields would likely support the US Tech index; however, if recession fears intensify, valuation effects could be offset by weaker profit expectations. The nearest upside target remains at 24,460.0.

Source: RoboForex

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Samantha Luan

Economic

Forex

Technical Analysis

Ahead of fundamental data releases from the eurozone and the US, the EURUSD pair may test the 1.1750 level. Discover more in our analysis for 5 September 2025.

EURUSD forecast: key trading points

● Eurozone Q2 GDP: previously at 0.1%, projected at 0.1%

● US Nonfarm Payrolls: previously at 73 thousand, projected at 75 thousand

● EURUSD forecast for 5 September 2025: 1.1750

Fundamental analysis

GDP is the total value of all goods and services produced in the country, calculated based on final output excluding raw materials.The forecast for 5 September 2025 does not appear optimistic, suggesting that eurozone GDP may remain at 0.1%. If the actual reading is equal to or below expectations, it may negatively affect the euro and trigger a correction in the EURUSD rate.

According to the forecast for 5 September 2025, US Nonfarm Payrolls may increase to 75 thousand from 73 thousand in the previous period. If actual results match expectations, markets may see increased volatility and temporary US dollar strength. The release of Nonfarm Payrolls almost always stirs market activity and can either support the US dollar or cause it to lose ground.Today’s EURUSD forecast also takes into account that the US unemployment rate for August may rise to 4.3% from 4.2% previously.

EURUSD technical analysis

On the H4 chart, the EURUSD pair formed an Inverted Hammer reversal pattern near the lower Bollinger Band. At this stage, it continues to develop an upward wave in line with the signal. Since the pair remains within an ascending channel, it still has chances for growth towards the nearest resistance level at 1.1750. A breakout above this resistance would open the way for further upward momentum.

At the same time, the EURUSD rate could correct towards 1.1625 before resuming growth.

Summary

Today’s EURUSD forecast favours the USD, as eurozone data may weaken the euro. However, EURUSD technical analysis suggests potential growth towards the 1.1750 resistance level.