Markets Give Seal of Approval to Japan's Pro-Stimulus 'Iron Lady'

Palestinian health authorities say Israel's two-year-old ground and air campaign against Hamas militants in the Gaza Strip has killed more than 67,000 people, with nearly a third of the dead under the age of 18.

The war, triggered by the deadly October 7, 2023 Hamas attack on Israel, has focused on Gaza City since last month and the offensive has continued despite consultations on U.S. President Donald Trump's new, 20-point plan for ending the conflict.

This explainer examines how the Palestinian toll is calculated, how reliable it is, the breakdown of civilians and fighters killed, and what each side says.

HOW DO GAZA HEALTH AUTHORITIES CALCULATE THE DEATH TOLL?

The latest detailed breakdown released by the Palestinian Ministry of Health on September 3 counted 19,424 deaths among children, accounting for 30% of the then-total of 64,232. Its overall tally has since climbed to 67,160 as of October 6.

The official ministry death toll dwarfs those killed in all previous bouts of fighting between Israelis and Palestinians in Gaza since 2005, according to data from Israeli human rights organisation B'Tselem.

In the first months of the war, death tolls were calculated simply by counting bodies that arrived in hospitals, and data included names and identity numbers for most of those killed.

In May 2024, the health ministry included unidentified bodies, which accounted for nearly a third of the overall toll. However, since October 2024, it has only encompassed identified bodies.

A Reuters examination in March of an earlier Gaza Health Ministry list of those killed showed that more than 1,200 families were completely wiped out, including one family of 14 people.

IS THE GAZA DEATH TOLL COMPREHENSIVE?

The numbers do not necessarily reflect all victims, as the Palestinian Health Ministry estimates several thousand bodies are under rubble and it does not count the 460 malnutrition-related deaths it has recorded amid a famine in North Gaza.

Official Palestinian tallies of direct deaths likely undercounted the number of casualties by around 40% in the first nine months of the war as Gaza's healthcare infrastructure disintegrated, according to a peer-reviewed study published in The Lancet journal in January.

The U.N. human rights office also says the Palestinian authorities' figure is probably an undercount.

The conflict deaths it has verified using its own methodology up to July 20 show that 40% were children and 22% were women.

A U.N. inquiry assessed last month that Israel had committed genocide in Gaza - citing the scale of the killings as one of the acts backing up its finding. Israel called the finding biased and "scandalous."

HOW CREDIBLE IS THE GAZA DEATH TOLL?

Pre-war Gaza had robust population statistics and better health information systems than in most Middle East countries, public health experts told Reuters.

The U.N. often cites the health ministry's death figures and says they are credible.

DOES HAMAS CONTROL THE FIGURES?

While Hamas has run Gaza since 2007, the enclave's Health Ministry also answers to the overall Palestinian Authority ministry in Ramallah in the West Bank.

Gaza's Hamas-run government has paid the salaries of all those hired in public departments since 2007, including in the Health Ministry. The Palestinian Authority pays the salaries of those hired before then.

WHAT DOES ISRAEL SAY?

Israeli officials have said previously that the death toll figures are suspect because of Hamas' control over government in Gaza, and that they are manipulated.

The Israeli military says 466 of its soldiers were killed in combat, and 2,951 others wounded since its Gaza ground operation began on October 27, 2023.

It also says it goes to great lengths to avoid civilian casualties. It says Hamas uses Gaza's civilians as human shields by operating within densely populated areas, humanitarian zones, schools and hospitals, a repeated accusation that Hamas denies.

The conflict began on October 7, 2023 when Hamas militants stormed across the border into Israeli communities. Israel says the militants killed 1,200 people, mostly civilians, and took 251 people into captivity in Gaza, of whom some 20 are thought to be still alive there.

HOW MANY OF THE DEAD ARE FIGHTERS?

The Palestinian Health Ministry figures do not differentiate between civilians and Hamas combatants, who do not wear formal uniform or carry separate identification.

The Israeli military said in January 2025 it had killed nearly 20,000 Hamas fighters. It has not provided an update since. Such estimates are reached through a combination of counting bodies on the battlefield, intercepts of Hamas communications and intelligence assessments of personnel in targets that were destroyed.

Hamas has said Israeli estimates of its losses are exaggerated, without saying how many of its fighters have been killed.

Source: TradingView

Source: AP

What happened last week

Markets in focus

as of 4 Oct 2025. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance.

as of 3 Oct 2025. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance.

as of 3 Oct 2025. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance.

The week ahead

Source: ig

J.P. Morgan upgraded its stance on the euro zone to "overweight" from "neutral" on Monday, noting that the equities in the region have become more attractive after several months of underperformance and policy support.

"The time is coming up to turn bullish on Eurozone equities," J.P. Morgan strategists, led by Mislav Matejka said.Euro Stoxx 50 (.STOXX50), has trailed the S&P 500 (.SPX), by nearly 18% since a strong first-quarter rally, but this relative underperformance could be used as a buying opportunity, Matejka said.The strategists noted that with relatively cheaper valuations than their U.S. counterparts, and potential catalysts such as German stimulus, and improving euro zone credit impulse, could renew sentiment in the region.

The 15% tariff on European Union goods has also put to rest one of the major overhangs on the region's equities, J.P. Morgan said.

The brokerage retained its positive stance on European defense stocks, as it expects capital expenditure to be constructive and boost parts of industrials, construction materials and utilities.

While the uncertainty in France could create an overhang, Matejka said, "We would use the weakness to buy, as we believe that any pressure will not be long-lasting."

The potential uptick in earnings and rise in share buybacks could also help underpin the euro zone's more optimistic outlook heading into next year.

The Wall Street brokerage reiterated its year-end target of 5,800 for the Euro Stoxx 50. The index is up 10.4% year-to-date, according LSEG data.

Source: Kitco

Last year Kemi Badenoch entered the Conservative Party conference competing with three of her Tory rivals for the leadership. As winner of that contest, this time around she confronts a more formidable foe: irrelevance.Since losing two-thirds of its seats in last year’s general election, dire poll ratings and defections have humbled the once-dominant party of UK government. If a vote were held today, a recent opinion survey showed, they’d collapse to fourth, trailing Nigel Farage’s Reform UK Party, the governing Labour Party, and the Liberal Democrats.

Rebuilding after 2024’s ballot-box rejection was always going to test Rishi Sunak’s successor. But doubts over Badenoch’s ability to lead the fightback mean she still has to guard against the mutinous instincts that led her party to cycle through five leaders in a decade.Should pollsters’ predictions hold at May’s local elections — her next test at the ballot box — many in the shadow cabinet speculate she will be replaced soon after, according to those who spoke to Bloomberg, asking for anonymity to share their views freely.

If rivals lack a greater zeal to depose her ahead of that, it’s because of skepticism that it would make any difference. Speaking before this year’s conference in Manchester, which got under way on Sunday, several of Badenoch’s colleagues voiced the concern that voters may be unlikely to return to them after just one term out of office.The next election isn’t due until 2029 and competing ever more successfully for former Conservative voters’ attention is Reform, which has succeeded in monopolizing the right-wing of British politics far more adeptly than its five parliamentary seats would suggest. That number had been four before a defection from the Conservatives.

In recent weeks, Labour Party Prime Minister Keir Starmer has sought to cast the next election as a head-to-head between his party and Reform. If voters buy into his framing, the Tories will find it harder to turn around their dire opinion-poll ratings.In interviews on the opening day of the conference, Badenoch — the first woman from an ethnic minority — to lead the party of Winston Churchill and Margaret Thatcher — urged patience on her colleagues. “The election is not tomorrow,” she told the BBC’s Laura Kuenssberg. “Nothing good comes quickly or fast. And it will pay off,” she said, insisting she had a plan.

Her party came out with hard lines on migration, which has eclipsed the economy in recent polls of voter concerns. She pledged to annually deport 150,000 people “who shouldn’t be here,” while declining to elaborate where they will go.Tomorrow in his speech, Shadow Chancellor of the Exchequer Mel Stride will identify what he says are £47 billion ($63 billion) of potential budget cuts, with almost half of that made up from slashing the welfare bill. Another £7 billion would be hacked off the foreign aid budget — almost half of current spending in an area that’s already suffered cuts to 0.5% of economic output from 0.7%.

The party’s challenge will be convincing voters it can tackle problems that went unaddressed over a 14-year stretch in government.

Labour Home Secretary Shabana Mahmood said the Tories had “suddenly discovered a zeal for reform that they did not have when they were in office,” pointing to their failure to enforce secure borders: migrant crossings in small boats from France were virtually non existent in 2017, but had soared to more than 45,000 a year by 2022. Meanwhile, an effort to deport arrivals to Rwanda never got off the ground. It’s an issue Labour, too, are struggling to deal with.Several of Badenoch’s colleagues — both in her cabinet and the back benches — said they fear more high-profile defections to Reform, which has already claimed Tory former cabinet ministers in Nadine Dorries and Jake Berry. In her interview Kemi denigrated the insurgent right-wing party as a “one-man band.”

If Badenoch were challenged for the leadership of her party, erstwhile rival Robert Jenrick is a frontrunner but four of his colleagues voiced skepticism that he will do better against Farage. He’ll be Farage-lite, one said: and voters who want that kind of politics will just vote for the Reform leader himself.The other candidate on the up is Katie Lam, the 33-year old Goldman Sachs alumnus who is also on the right on immigration but — having won election in 2024 — has the advantage of not being associated with the old guard.

Some party centrists believe there to be an opportunity for a leader who can tack against the Tories’ current rightward shift and pivot back toward the center-ground to take advantage of Labour’s own collapse. There are also Liberal Democrat voters to be won back there: Ed Davey’s party took 60 seats off the Conservatives last year, and recent polls suggest they can win more next time around.

“Polls are not elections,” Badenoch said in her interview. Hers is not the only UK party nervously repeating this mantra.

Source: Bloomberg Europe