Last Minutes Remaining – FED To Announce Interest Rate Decision, Here Are Expert Expectations And Predicted Date For First Rate Cut

Central Bank

Summary:

Investors have begun to scale back their expectations for a rate cut after the latest employment data exceeded expectations.

LPL Financial Chief Economist Jeffrey Roach said in an assessment he made on the Yahoo Finance program Morning Brief that this week’s meeting will most likely be “boring.” Roach said that Fed officials will prepare markets for the first rate cut in June with domestic and international speeches they will make during this process.

Roach said he expects three interest rate cuts during the year, adding that these could be quarter-point cuts in June, October and December, respectively. He noted that there are positive signals, especially in non-housing services inflation, which is called “super core.”

Roach also made assessments of employment data, stating that the latest figures do not fully reflect the truth and that some temporary hirings (such as in the warehousing sector) make the picture look stronger than it is. He also pointed out that the data could be misleading because federal employees are still on the payroll due to severance pay or early retirement.

However, Roach said that the persistent demand for labor in the health sector provides stability to the labor market, and that the general trend is a slowdown in employment growth over the last year and a half but still positive. He added that as long as the average employment growth remains above 125,000, the message of stability will continue to be given to the markets.

Roach said that businesses tend to hold on to their current employees because of the difficulties they face in finding qualified workers, and that this could limit layoffs. However, he also noted that wage increases could slow down.

Noting that there has been a rapid increase in the number of people unemployed for a long time, Roach added that this rate has reached pre-pandemic levels but does not yet show signs of recession. For this reason, he stated that the markets reacted positively to the employment data announced last Friday.

According to Roach's assessment, the Fed will not change interest rates this week, but will begin to lay the groundwork for a possible cut in June.

Source: CryptoSlate

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Adam

Cryptocurrency

Grab a coffee as we dissect Bitcoin’s place in mainstream finance. The narrative of the pioneer crypto decoupling from traditional equity markets gains significant attention, but is it ready for the next step?

Crypto News of the Day: Bitcoin Still a Diversifier, Not a Reliable Hedge, RedStone Exec Says

BeInCrypto’s recent US Crypto News series in April explored whether the digital gold narrative was breaking down as Gold ascended to new highs while Bitcoin lagged.

The report came after extensive advocacy for Bitcoin as digital gold, with many presenting it as a safe-haven asset against negative market price movements.

However, recent findings beg the question: Is that time finally here? BeInCrypto contacted RedStone to ask: Is Bitcoin a hedge for traditional markets?

The response was insightful, with key takeaways from Marcin Kazmierczak, co-founder and COO of the leading cross-chain data oracle provider RedStone. According to Kazmierczak, data support Bitcoin’s role as a portfolio diversifier.

Kazmierczak cited analysis of Bitcoin and S&P 500 data from the past 12 months of open American market days. They analyzed on weekly and monthly timeframes.

Bitcoin Isn’t Ready to Replace Gold or Bonds, Analyst Warns | US Crypto News_1

Bitcoin correlation on a 7-day timeframe

For the 7-day correlation, which provides a more short-term outlook, they noted F periods when BTC exhibited a strong negative correlation with the American stock markets.

However, the 7-day aggregation is a short-term metric, making it susceptible to influence from market noise. The 30-day chart provides a clearer representation.

Bitcoin Isn’t Ready to Replace Gold or Bonds, Analyst Warns | US Crypto News_2

Bitcoin correlation with S&P on a 30-day timeframe

This timeframe reveals several shifts between modest positive, near-zero, and slightly negative correlations throughout the 12 months.

Bitcoin May Not Be Ready to Replace Traditional Hedges

He explained that Bitcoin exhibited variable correlation with the S&P 500 (SPX) over the past year.

This variance, he said, does not support positioning Bitcoin as a replacement for traditional hedges like gold or bonds.

He observed that institutional players still fundamentally classify Bitcoin as a risk-on asset. According to Kazmierczak, this range indicates that Bitcoin operates with periodic independence from traditional equity markets.

He believes the correlation is generally modest enough to provide portfolio diversification benefits. However, the variance nullifies Bitcoin from functioning as a reliable counter-movement hedge.

Nevertheless, the RedStone executive articulated that if Bitcoin truly transitions to being treated as a safe-haven, risk-off asset, it would mark the most profound asset narrative transformation in modern financial history.

Chart of the Day

Bitcoin vs S&P 500 performance

The chart suggests Bitcoin’s performance has often diverged from traditional equity markets, especially in 2024-2025.

However, this does not definitively indicate a permanent decoupling or consistent negative correlation with equities.

While Bitcoin outperformed at times, it still shows periods of correlation with the S&P 500, indicating its role in portfolio protection remains uncertain and context-dependent.

A recent US Crypto News publication indicated what could pass as context for these variations. BeInCrypto cited political tension and concerns over the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) independence.

source : beincrypto

Risk Warnings and Disclaimers

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Devin

Economic

The Southeast Asian nation’s trade minister and top negotiator, Nguyen Hong Dien, urged the firms, including in energy, mining, telecommunications and aviation, during a meeting in Hanoi to be “proactive” to help US-Vietnam trade reach its “great potential,” the government said in a statement.

Nguyen Hong Dien also met with the US Ambassador to Vietnam, Marc Knapper, “to promote the ongoing negotiation process aimed at addressing current bilateral economic and trade issues,” it said.

Vietnam is among a group of countries opening trade talks with the US that are facing some of the steepest tariffs imposed by President Donald Trump, aimed at reviving manufacturing that moved overseas in recent decades. Trump’s main target, China, is also a major trade partner for Vietnam but has challenged its access to offshore areas both countries claim in the South China Sea.

Vietnam’s trade surplus narrowed sharply in April in what could be an early indication of the impact of higher US tariffs. The surplus in April was $577 million, compared with the $1.64 billion reported for March, according to data released by the National Statistics Office in Hanoi Tuesday.

US officials late last month had draft plans to hold negotiations with about 18 countries over three weeks, using a template that lays out common areas of concern to help guide the discussions, including on tariffs, non-tariff barriers, digital trade, economic security and commercial concerns.

The US ran a nearly $124 billion trade deficit with Vietnam last year, according to the US Trade Representative, the third-highest after China and Mexico. The surge in trading in recent years is partly due to firms leaving China to avoid Trump’s trade war during his first term. Besides being a large apparel exporter, Vietnam has also become a manufacturing base for multinational companies including Apple Inc.’s suppliers and Samsung Electronics Co.

USTR Jamieson Greer in March told Nguyen Hong Dien in Washington that Vietnam must improve the trade balance and further open its market, which the government in Hanoi pledged to do via removing tariffs on US goods and buying more from the US. Vietnam also vowed to combat trade fraud and increase monitoring of products’ origin.

Trump imposed a 46% tariff on Vietnam on April 2, which was later suspended for 90 days to allow time for talks.

In its statement Wednesday, Vietnam said it had imported in recent years billions of dollars worth of US aircraft, machinery, power transmission systems, high-end semiconductors and raw materials.

The US normalized relations with Vietnam in 1995 after lifting a trade embargo the year before, a legacy of their conflict that ended in 1973. In 2023, President Joe Biden updated the relationship to a “comprehensive strategic partnership,” Hanoi’s highest diplomatic level and one it has used for India and China.

Vietnam has previously sought to improve it export options to the US by applying for “market economy” status from Washington regulators. That request was rejected last August by the Commerce Department as critics argued the government in Hanoi controls prices and production and subsidizes enterprises that compete with American firms.

Source: Bloomberg Europe

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Catherine Richards

Cryptocurrency

Technical Analysis

Bitcoin price has been consolidating between $93,410, and $97,000 for the past 7 days. As of now, traders are waiting on the FOMC meeting set for 2 p.m. ET today to know the next move. There’s a possibility that the BTC price will break above $100k following the meeting.

According to the data on CME FedWatch Tool, there’s a 97.7% chance the Fed will keep rates steady between 4.25% and 4.50%. Meanwhile, tension is rising as inflation stays sticky and rate-cut demands grow louder. But despite all this political pressure, Fed Chair Jerome Powell is expected to stick to his cautious approach.

At the time of writing, Bitcoin price is trading at $96,929, up 2.44% in the last 24 hours with a volume of $38.1 billion, according to CoinMarketCap.

Looking at the 4-hour chart, Bitcoin price recently bounced off a support zone at $93,000. Right now, the price is testing a resistance zone. If the price holds and gains strength, it could jump 5% toward $102,2500. If not, a drop to $88,772 is possible.

In a recent report on May 6, Crypto exchange Bitfinex confirmed that Bitc can hit a new all-time high only if the price manages to stay above the support level at $95,000. The exchange said “The $95,000 level—currently under consolidation—is a critical pivot point, acting as the lower boundary of a three-month range.” In short, if the price stays above this level may lead to a new all-time high, but dropping below could trigger a sharp fall.

Source: CryptoSlate

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Adam

Economic

China–U.S. Trade War

US President Donald Trump’s top trade officials will meet with their Chinese counterparts this week to discuss a de-escalation of their increasingly ugly and damaging trade war. The future of the global economy is riding on their success.

The trade talks, the first in-person meeting between Chinese and American officials since the tit-for-tat tariff escalation kicked off in earnest in March, are unlikely to result in a trade deal, Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said Tuesday. But tariffs have reached such a high level that trade between the two countries has dropped off dramatically. Any thaw in the trade war could be a welcome sign for businesses and consumers in both countries and around the globe.

“The main objective of this meeting is to establish the conditions for a deal to be reached, including by defining what is feasible to be agreed upon and what isn’t,” said Alfredo Montufar-Helu, head of the Conference Board’s China Center. “There might be some quick wins, like a temporal pause of tariffs, which would bring much needed relief to businesses from both countries.”

The United States has placed at least a 145% tariff on most Chinese imports, and China has responded with a 125% tariff on some US imports. The last tariff-free ships — those on the water when the tariffs were announced — have almost all docked, and the first ships with goods that will be subject to tariffs are arriving at the ports.

That means businesses in China and the United States will soon face a difficult decision: pay a tariff that more than doubles the cost of the imported goods, or stop selling them altogether. That means consumers are weeks away from experiencing higher prices and some shortages.

The punishing tariffs have already damaged both economies. The US economy went into reverse in the first quarter, its first contraction in three years, as businesses stockpiled goods in anticipation of Trump’s “Liberation Day” tariffs, which began in the second quarter. Meanwhile, China’s factory activity contracted at its fastest pace in 16 months in April, and the government is expected to inject the economy with more stimulus measures.

Although the China-US trade standoff is by far the most aggressive, Trump has imposed large tariffs on most other countries around the world too: a 10% universal tariff on virtually all goods entering the United States, plus 25% tariffs on steel, aluminum, autos, auto parts and some goods from Mexico and Canada. So the world is watching the talks with anticipation.

Global economists at the International Monetary Fund, OECD and World Bank have all predicted that Trump’s trade war would have disastrous effects on the global economy, slowing growth dramatically in some countries, while reigniting inflation. The United States is expected to be among the hardest-hit economies as other nations, including China, retaliate against it with higher tariffs. Many US economists and large banks predict the United States could enter a recession this year.

A noticeable thaw

Bessent and US Trade Representative Jamieson Greer will both travel to Geneva, Switzerland, where they will meet the Chinese officials, authorities announced Tuesday.

In an interview with Fox News, Bessent Tuesday said the talks represent a first step, but he tried to downplay expectations for a deal.

“My sense is that this will be about de-escalation, not about the big trade deal … but we’ve got to de-escalate before we can move forward,” Bessent said.

Despite ongoing tensions, both countries have signaled for several weeks that the current standoff is unsustainable. Bessent and Trump have both acknowledged the tariffs are too high. In an interview with NBC News last week, Trump said he would lower tariffs on China “at some point.”

China has largely stood firm against Trump, denying his refrains that the countries were in active negotiations — a denial that Bessent concurred with under oath in congressional testimony Tuesday. China shifted its tone slightly last week, saying it was reviewing proposals by the United States to begin trade talks – but it has remained defiant in its criticism of Trump’s trade policies.

“We have also stated many times that China is open to dialogue, but any dialogue must be based on equality, respect, and mutual benefit,” said Lin Jian, spokesman for China’s foreign ministry on Wednesday. “Any form of pressure or coercion is unacceptable to China.”

Although Beijing has been projecting an aura of strength, its economy is starting to take a beating. On Wednesday, the People’s Bank of China, the central bank, said it would cut the amount of cash that banks must keep in reserve by half a percentage point, in an effort to promote economic growth by boosting liquidity. The bank’s governor, Pan Gongsheng, also announced a 0.1-percentage-point reduction to the seven-day reverse repurchase rate, which will result in a cut to an important interest rate that influences mortgages.

Wall Street welcomed the news: Markets rose on reports of the talks. Dow futures were up more than 300 points, or 0.8%. Futures for the broader S&P 500 rose 0.7% and Nasdaq futures were 0.7% higher. Asian markets were modestly higher on Wednesday.

Trade comes to a near-halt

As Chinese authorities frequently say in their statements about Trump’s tariffs: No one wins in a trade war. That has become evident in recent weeks as high tariffs imposed significant damage on both economies and effectively froze trade.

The number of cargo ships headed from China to the United States fell 60% in April, according to Flexport, a logistics and freight forwarding broker. JPMorgan estimates Chinese imports into the United States will plunge by as much as 80% by the second half of the year.

“A 60% decline in containers means 60% less stuff arriving,” Flexport CEO Ryan Petersen told CNN’s Pamela Brown Tuesday. “It’s only a matter of time before they sell through existing inventory, and then you’ll see shortages. And that’s when you see price hikes.”

The Port of Los Angeles had expected 80 ships to arrive in May, but 20% of those have been canceled, its executive director Gene Seroka told CNN Tuesday. Customers have already canceled 13 sailings for June.

“This week, we’re down about 35% compared to the same time last year, and these cargo ships coming in are the first ones to be attached to the tariffs that were levied against China and other locations last month,” Seroka said. “That’s why the cargo volume is so light.”

Despite the increasingly dire warnings and economic turmoil, the two countries remain quite far from a deal. Both sides have dug in, saying they’ll need major concessions at the outset to begin negotiations. Bessent has said it could take two to three years for trade to normalize with China.

So much is riding on the Switzerland talks. Even without a trade deal in hand, the face-to-face discussions are encouraging. With the two countries inflicting so much damage on themselves, they have left very little choice other than to start the thawing process.

“At some point, I’m going to lower them because otherwise you could never do business with them,” Trump said in an interview with NBC’s “Meet the Press with Kristen Welker,” which taped on Friday. “They want to do business very much … their economy is collapsing.”

Source: cnn

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Adam

Economic

China–U.S. Trade War

Central Bank

Wednesday morning brought a splash of green to US equity futures, as the announcement of US-China trade talks in Switzerland sent the markets into a cheerful spin. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent is leading the charge to ease trade tensions, and investors are clearly hopeful.

All eyes are on the Fed, although financiers are not expecting the central bank to cut rates this afternoon. The real hope among financiers is for the Fed to strike a dovish tone rather than a hawkish one. In simpler terms, they want the Fed to signal its readiness to step in if the U.S. economy starts showing signs of trouble. Of course, the central bank is always prepared to act, but it faces the delicate task of maintaining balance. It must carefully choose its words to avoid tipping the scales too far in favor of the market or coming across as overly strict.

Tuesday's trading session started with a cloud over Wall Street, but an afternoon announcement brought a ray of hope to the financial markets. Let's break it down. Ahead of the US central bank's interest rate decision, stock indices were generally in the red. Wall Street dipped just under 1%, marking a second day of consolidation after enjoying a nine-day winning streak. Across the pond in Europe, the mood wasn't much brighter, though there were a few glimmers of hope. London's FTSE 100 managed a minuscule gain of 0.01%, but that was enough to extend its winning streak to an impressive 16 days, a feat not seen since the index's inception in 1984. While London hasn't yet reclaimed its record high from February's end, there might be a boost on the horizon, which I'll touch on shortly.

In the United States, investors find themselves in a classic tug-of-war. On one side, there's the anxiety over the unpredictable nature of Donald Trump's policies. On the other, the tantalizing prospect of snapping up stocks at prices that are more attractive than they were a mere three months ago. So, which side is winning? It seems the allure of a bargain is proving irresistible, driven by two key factors. First, there's the anchoring bias at play. The White House applied significant pressure at the start of April, creating an impression that the situation could only improve from there. This has led investors to believe that the worst is behind us. Second, there's the ever-reliable safety net of the U.S. central bank. Investors are confident that if things start to go awry, the central bank will step in to stabilize the situation, as it has done in the past. In this high-stakes game, the fear of missing out is proving to be a powerful motivator, nudging investors to seize the moment and invest while the opportunity is ripe.

This was illustrated yesterday, as Wall Street's leading indicators roared with delight at the announcement of preliminary talks between China and the US in Switzerland starting this weekend. Investors were all the more pleased by the news because the negotiators are not underlings, but heavyweights. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent will lead the US side, and Vice Premier He Lifeng will represent China. This will be a simple introductory meeting, but for now the financial markets are more concerned about the existence of the dialogue than its outcome.

This has not prevented the two rivals from continuing to proclaim that they will maintain a firm stance, nor has it prevented China from unveiling a major monetary easing package. On the agenda are a cut in the seven-day repo rate, a reduction in the reserve requirement ratio, a 500 billion yuan refinancing program for consumption and elderly care, a 300 billion yuan extension of the technology fund, and a cut in housing-related loan rates. If you want something done right, do it yourself. At the same time, other trade negotiations are underway. The United Kingdom, for example, believes it has made good progress with the US administration towards a trade agreement, although the scope of the agreement remains unclear.

Meanwhile, geopolitical tensions have shifted from Ukraine and the Middle East to the Indo-Pakistani border. India has struck targets described as “terrorist camps” inside Pakistan in retaliation for an attack that killed many tourists in Kashmir last month. Pakistan said it shot down several Indian aircraft and vowed to retaliate, while saying it was open to talks with its neighbor.

Returning to the financial world, there are still many earnings reports due today in Europe and the US. Yesterday's announcements were fairly mixed: AMD was fairly reassuring, but other technology players such as Arista, Marvell, and Super Micro disappointed. Today, the spotlight is on heavyweights such as Novo Nordisk in Europe and Walt Disney in the US, as we wait for the Fed's decision at 2:00 pm ET, followed by Jerome Powell's press conference at 2:30 pm.

In Asia-Pacific, all major markets are open after a series of public holidays. Japan, Australia, China, and South Korea are posting gains of between 0.1% and 0.5%. The Indian market is down slightly, while the Pakistani stock market is falling more heavily. European indices are in the red, with the Stoxx Europe 600

Source : marketscreener

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Adam

Economic

Central Bank

Bank of England expected to continue gradual easing cycle

The monetary policy landscape in the UK appears poised for another significant shift, with markets widely expecting the Bank of England (BoE) to deliver a fourth consecutive interest rate cut at its upcoming meeting on 8 May. After beginning its easing cycle in August 2024, the central bank has carefully managed a gradual reduction in borrowing costs as inflation pressures have eased.

Most analysts anticipate a modest 25 basis point reduction, which would bring the Bank Rate down from 4.5% to 4.25%. This represents a continuation of the measured approach the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) has taken since starting its cutting cycle last year, reflecting the delicate balance policymakers must strike between supporting economic growth and ensuring inflation remains contained.

While most committee members appear to favour this cautious stance, reports suggest at least one policymaker may push for a more substantial 50 basis point cut. Such a move would signal greater concern about deteriorating economic conditions, particularly in light of recent weak business activity data and mounting concerns about global trade tensions.

UK businesses and consumers alike will welcome further relief after enduring the highest interest rates since the 2008 financial crisis. Forex trading could see significant volatility around the announcement, with the US dollar likely to respond sharply to both the rate decision itself and any shifts in the Bank's forward guidance.

Gradual easing path expected despite inflation progress

Despite clear progress on the inflation front, the BoE is expected to maintain its self-described "gradual and careful" approach to monetary easing, with forecasts suggesting approximately one rate cut per quarter through 2025 and into 2026. This measured path reflects ongoing concerns about the stickiness of certain inflation components, particularly in the services sector.

The cautious stance contrasts somewhat with market expectations, which have occasionally priced in a more rapid sequence of cuts. However, barring a significant deterioration in economic data, the MPC appears committed to a methodical unwinding of its restrictive policy stance rather than abrupt changes that could unsettle markets or reignite inflation pressures.

Recent economic indicators provide a mixed picture, with the UK economy showing some signs of strain despite previous resilience in the face of elevated borrowing costs. The services sector, in particular, has shown weakness in recent survey data, with business activity dropping to levels not seen since the aftermath of Liz Truss's mini-budget in late 2022.

For investors and traders navigating this evolving monetary landscape, understanding the nuances of the Bank's approach will be crucial when formulating trading strategies. A continuing easing cycle typically impacts multiple asset classes, from bonds and currencies to equities and real estate, creating both risks and opportunities across financial markets.

Inflation dynamics driving monetary policy decisions

The story of UK inflation continues to evolve in ways that are shaping the BoE's policy decisions. While headline inflation has retreated significantly from its double-digit peak, largely helped by falling energy prices and base effects, components of the inflation basket are moving at different speeds, complicating the policy picture.

Services inflation has proven particularly stubborn, remaining above the Bank's 2% target and suggesting that domestic price pressures continue to simmer beneath the surface. This persistence reflects several factors, including ongoing wage growth pressures and businesses passing on higher costs to consumers in sectors where demand remains relatively stable.

Food price inflation has also remained elevated compared to pre-pandemic norms, although it too has begun to moderate. The complex interplay between these various inflation components means the Bank must look beyond headline figures to assess underlying inflationary pressures when calibrating its policy response.

The Bank's economists will be particularly focused on whether the recent cooling in services inflation represents the beginning of a sustainable trend or merely a temporary respite. This assessment will be crucial in determining not just the timing of future rate cuts but also the ultimate destination for UK interest rates once the current easing cycle is complete.

External factors increasingly influencing rate decisions

Recent developments in global trade, particularly Donald Trump's proposed tariffs, have introduced new considerations for the BoE's rate-setting committee. The potential impact of these measures on global growth and inflation creates significant uncertainty about the appropriate path for UK monetary policy in the coming months.

The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has already downgraded growth forecasts for the UK and global economy, reflecting concerns about trade tensions and their potential to disrupt supply chains and increase inflationary pressures. Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey has publicly acknowledged these risks, suggesting they are being "taken very seriously" by policymakers.

This external environment could potentially tilt the Bank toward a more accommodative stance than previously anticipated, especially if evidence mounts that economic activity is slowing more rapidly than expected. Some economists now suggest that the traditional "gradual and careful" language might be adjusted to reflect these changing circumstances.

For those involved in spread betting or CFD trading, these external factors add another layer of complexity to trading central bank decisions. The interplay between domestic data, inflation concerns, and global developments creates a particularly challenging environment for predicting monetary policy moves.

Long-term interest rate outlook remains uncertain

Looking beyond the May rate decision, considerable uncertainty surrounds the long-term path for UK interest rates. Some analysts suggest that the Bank may need to deliver as many as four rate cuts in 2025 if inflation continues to cool and economic headwinds intensify, potentially bringing the Bank Rate toward 3.5% by early 2026.

This view stands somewhat at odds with current market pricing, which has been adjusting to reflect a potentially less aggressive easing path from the Federal Reserve (Fed). With US monetary policy often influencing global interest rate expectations, these divergent outlooks highlight the difficulty of forecasting policy several years ahead.

The policy divergence between major central banks adds another layer of complexity to the outlook. With the European Central Bank (ECB) having moved earlier than the BoE on rate cuts, and uncertainty surrounding the Fed's policy path, currency markets may experience increased volatility as relative interest rate expectations adjust.

These divergent paths create both challenges and opportunities for traders focused on currency pairs like GBP/USD and EUR/GBP, which are particularly sensitive to interest rate differentials. The coming months will likely see markets continually reassessing relative central bank positions, potentially creating tradable moves in forex markets.

How to trade the Bank of England rate decision

Trading central bank decisions effectively requires thorough preparation and a clear strategy. Start by researching current market expectations for the upcoming decision, focusing not just on the headline rate change but also on the anticipated tone of the accompanying statement and updated economic projections.

Consider whether to approach the event through forex trading or using alternative instruments like interest rate futures or UK-focused equity indices such as the FTSE 100. Each market will respond differently to various aspects of the announcement, offering diverse opportunities depending on how events unfold.

Once you've decided on your approach, open a trading account that provides access to your chosen markets. IG's platforms offer comprehensive coverage of markets that respond to BoE decisions, including sterling currency pairs, UK government bonds, and equity indices, all accessible through spread betting or CFD trading accounts.

Remember that volatility often increases around central bank announcements, making risk management particularly important. Consider using stop losses to protect your position if markets move against you, and think carefully about position sizing given the potential for sharp price movements during and immediately after the Bank's announcement.

Potential market impacts beyond interest rates

While the immediate focus will be on the interest rate decision itself, traders should look beyond the headline figure to assess broader market implications. The Bank's updated economic forecasts for growth and inflation will provide crucial context for the rate decision and may prove more significant for market sentiment than the widely anticipated 25bp cut.

The pound sterling will likely experience heightened volatility around the announcement, with its reaction determined not just by the rate decision but by any signals regarding the future path of policy. A more dovish tone than expected could pressure the currency, while hints at maintaining the current pace of easing might provide support.

UK equity markets will also be watching closely, with different sectors potentially responding in contrasting ways. Banks and financial stocks often benefit from higher interest rates due to improved net interest margins, meaning a clear signal of an accelerated cutting cycle could weigh on this sector while boosting more rate-sensitive areas like utilities and real estate.

Bond markets will be particularly attuned to any shifts in the Bank's language around inflation persistence or economic growth. Gilt yields have adjusted significantly in anticipation of the easing cycle, but could still move sharply if the Bank's outlook diverges from current market expectations, creating opportunities for bond traders.

The BoE's May rate decision represents the next step in its ongoing easing cycle that began last August. While a fourth cut appears likely, external factors including potential trade tensions and slowing economic activity may influence both the immediate decision and forward guidance. Investors should prepare for potential shifts in the Bank's cautious approach as it navigates an increasingly complex global landscape.

Source : ig

To stay updated on all economic events of today, please check out our Economic calendar

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Last Minutes Remaining – FED To Announce Interest Rate Decision, Here Are Expert Expectations And Predicted Date For First Rate Cut

Source: CryptoSlate

Bitcoin Isn’t Ready to Replace Gold or Bonds, Analyst Warns | US Crypto News

Crypto News of the Day: Bitcoin Still a Diversifier, Not a Reliable Hedge, RedStone Exec Says

Bitcoin correlation on a 7-day timeframe

Bitcoin correlation with S&P on a 30-day timeframe

Bitcoin May Not Be Ready to Replace Traditional Hedges

Chart of the Day

Bitcoin vs S&P 500 performance

source : beincrypto

Vietnam Says It Wants To Buy More From US As Trade Talks Begin

Source: Bloomberg Europe

Bitcoin Price Eyes $100K Ahead Of Fed’s FOMC Meeting

Source: CryptoSlate

Trump’s team is finally meeting with China. The future of the global economy is riding on its success

A noticeable thaw

Trade comes to a near-halt

Source: cnn

About Doves and Deals

Source : marketscreener

Bank of England poised for fourth rate cut as economic challenges mount

Bank of England expected to continue gradual easing cycle

Gradual easing path expected despite inflation progress

Inflation dynamics driving monetary policy decisions

External factors increasingly influencing rate decisions

Long-term interest rate outlook remains uncertain

How to trade the Bank of England rate decision

Potential market impacts beyond interest rates

Source : ig

Risk Disclosure

Recent Searches

Top Searches

Markets

News

Analysis

User

24/7

Economic Calendar

Education

Data

Last Minutes Remaining – FED To Announce Interest Rate Decision, Here Are Expert Expectations And Predicted Date For First Rate Cut

Source: CryptoSlate

Bitcoin Isn’t Ready to Replace Gold or Bonds, Analyst Warns | US Crypto News

Crypto News of the Day: Bitcoin Still a Diversifier, Not a Reliable Hedge, RedStone Exec Says

Bitcoin correlation on a 7-day timeframe

Bitcoin correlation with S&P on a 30-day timeframe

Bitcoin May Not Be Ready to Replace Traditional Hedges

Chart of the Day

Bitcoin vs S&P 500 performance

source : beincrypto

Vietnam Says It Wants To Buy More From US As Trade Talks Begin

Source: Bloomberg Europe

Bitcoin Price Eyes $100K Ahead Of Fed’s FOMC Meeting

Source: CryptoSlate

Trump’s team is finally meeting with China. The future of the global economy is riding on its success

A noticeable thaw

Trade comes to a near-halt

Source: cnn

About Doves and Deals

Source : marketscreener

Bank of England poised for fourth rate cut as economic challenges mount

Bank of England expected to continue gradual easing cycle

​Gradual easing path expected despite inflation progress

​Inflation dynamics driving monetary policy decisions

​External factors increasingly influencing rate decisions

​Long-term interest rate outlook remains uncertain

​How to trade the Bank of England rate decision

​Potential market impacts beyond interest rates

Source : ig

Risk Disclosure

Gradual easing path expected despite inflation progress

Inflation dynamics driving monetary policy decisions

External factors increasingly influencing rate decisions

Long-term interest rate outlook remains uncertain

How to trade the Bank of England rate decision

Potential market impacts beyond interest rates