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SYMBOL
LAST
BID
ASK
HIGH
LOW
NET CHG.
%CHG.
SPREAD
SPX
S&P 500 Index
6814.38
6814.38
6814.38
6861.30
6801.50
-13.03
-0.19%
--
DJI
Dow Jones Industrial Average
48361.22
48361.22
48361.22
48679.14
48285.67
-96.82
-0.20%
--
IXIC
NASDAQ Composite Index
23089.51
23089.51
23089.51
23345.56
23012.00
-105.65
-0.46%
--
USDX
US Dollar Index
97.970
98.050
97.970
98.070
97.740
+0.020
+ 0.02%
--
EURUSD
Euro / US Dollar
1.17436
1.17443
1.17436
1.17686
1.17262
+0.00042
+ 0.04%
--
GBPUSD
Pound Sterling / US Dollar
1.33685
1.33692
1.33685
1.34014
1.33546
-0.00022
-0.02%
--
XAUUSD
Gold / US Dollar
4303.03
4303.37
4303.03
4350.16
4285.08
+3.64
+ 0.08%
--
WTI
Light Sweet Crude Oil
56.358
56.388
56.358
57.601
56.233
-0.875
-1.53%
--

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New York Fed Accepts $2.601 Billion Of $2.601 Billion Submitted To Reverse Repo Facility On Dec 15

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Turkey: Shoots Down A Drone In The Black Sea Using F-16 Fighter Jets

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Goldman Sachs Says They Believe That The Copper Price Is Vulnerable To An Ai-Linked Price Correction

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Goldman Sachs Upgrades 2026 Copper Price Forecast To $11400 From $10,650

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Attempts By Ukrainian Troops To Advance From The South-West To Outskirts Of Kupiansk Are Being Thwarted

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Russian Troops Control All Of Kupiansk - IFX Cites Russian Military

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On Monday (December 15), The South Korean Won Ultimately Rose 0.60% Against The US Dollar, Closing At 1468.91 Won. The Won Was On An Upward Trend Throughout The Day, Rising Significantly At 17:00 Beijing Time And Reaching A Daily High Of 1463.04 Won At 17:36

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Health Ministry: Israeli Forces Kill Palestinian Teen In West Bank

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New York Federal Reserve President Williams: Over Time, The Size Of Reserves Could Grow From $2.9 Trillion

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New York Fed President Williams: AI Valuations Are High, But There Is A Real Driving Factor

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New York Federal Reserve President Williams: The Job Market Is In Very Good Shape

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New York Fed President Williams: 'Very Supportive' Of USA Central Bank's Decision To Cut Interest Rates Last Week

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New York Fed President Williams: 'Too Early To Say' What Central Bank Should Do At January Meeting

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New York Fed President Williams: Strong Markets Part Of Reason Why Economy Will Grow Robustly In 2026

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New York Fed President Williams: What Constitutes Ample Reserves Will Change Over Time

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New York Fed President Williams: Market Valuations 'Elevated,' But There Are Reasons For Pricing

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New York Fed President Williams: Ample Reserves System Working Very Well

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New York Fed President Williams: Some Signs That Parts Of Underlying Economy Not As Strong As GDP Data Suggests

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New York Fed President Williams: Expects Coming Job Data Will Show Gradual Cooling

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Ukraine President Zelenskiy: Monitoring Of Ceasefire Should Be Part Of Security Guarantees

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          KR Choksey's research report

          Justin

          Stocks

          Summary:

          Additionally, the India Formulations business is poised to outperform the market, supported by new product launches, strategic acquisitions, and a growing focus on chronic therapies.

          KR Choksey's research report on Lupin

          Lupin’s revenue beat our estimates (+3.1%) due to better-than-expected revenue in North America and India. EBITDA beat our estimates due to better-than-expected gross profit and lower-than-expected other expenses. Adj. PAT beat our estimates due to lower-thanexpected depreciation expense. We maintain our FY26E/FY27E EPS estimates at INR 79.9 and INR 104.7, reinforcing our positive outlook on Lupin’s growth trajectory. The US market is expected to sustain double-digit growth, driven by a robust pipeline of complex generics, injectables, and respiratory therapies.

          Outlook

          Additionally, the India Formulations business is poised to outperform the market, supported by new product launches, strategic acquisitions, and a growing focus on chronic therapies. We roll over our valuation multiple to FY27E and assign a PE multiple of 23.6 to arrive at a target price of INR 2,472 (unchanged) and reiterate our “BUY” rating.

          For all recommendations report, click here

          Disclaimer: The views and investment tips expressed by investment experts/broking houses/rating agencies on moneycontrol.com are their own, and not that of the website or its management. Moneycontrol.com advises users to check with certified experts before taking any investment decisions.

          Source:Moneycontrot

          Risk Warnings and Disclaimers
          You understand and acknowledge that there is a high degree of risk involved in trading. Following any strategies or investment methods may lead to potential losses. The content on the site is provided by our contributors and analysts for information purposes only. You are solely responsible for determining whether any trading assets, securities, strategy, or any other product is suitable for investing based on your own investment objectives and financial situation.
          Add to Favorites
          Share

          Buy or Sell? Mastering Stock Market Timing

          Glendon

          Economic

          The stock market can seem like a maze to both novice and experienced investors. With the constant fluctuations in stock prices, the biggest question on every investor's mind is: When is the right time to buy or sell? Timing the market is not just about following trends or responding to news headlines. It requires careful analysis, patience, and a solid understanding of both market movements and your own financial goals. In this guide, we’ll explore how to approach stock market timing, common strategies, and tips for making informed decisions without succumbing to fear or greed.

          The Myth of Perfect Timing

          One of the first things to note is that perfect timing is often a myth. No one can predict the market with absolute certainty. Even professional traders, with all their advanced tools and experience, rarely get it exactly right every time. The key to successful market timing is not to aim for perfection, but to make informed decisions based on evidence and strategy. While trying to time the market might sound appealing, it’s also important to realize the risks of attempting to buy and sell at the perfect moments.

          Why Timing Matters

          Good market timing can drastically improve your investment returns. A well-timed buy can result in significant gains when a stock’s price rises, while an effective sell can help you lock in profits or avoid losses during a downturn. However, the challenge lies in figuring out when exactly to enter or exit a market that is constantly changing.

          Key Strategies for Timing the Market

          Technical Analysis

          Technical analysis is the study of past market data, primarily price and volume, to forecast future price movements. Traders often use charts, patterns, and indicators to identify buy or sell signals. While technical analysis doesn’t guarantee success, it helps to pinpoint entry and exit points based on historical trends.
          Common technical indicators include:
          Moving Averages (SMA, EMA): Smooth out price action and help identify trends.
          RSI (Relative Strength Index): Indicates whether a stock is overbought or oversold.
          MACD (Moving Average Convergence Divergence): A momentum indicator used to spot trend reversals.

          Fundamental Analysis

          Unlike technical analysis, which focuses on stock price patterns, fundamental analysis involves evaluating a company's financial health and long-term prospects. Investors using fundamental analysis look at metrics such as earnings reports, debt-to-equity ratio, and the company’s competitive position within its industry.
          If a company’s fundamentals remain strong but its stock is undervalued, it may be a good opportunity to buy. Similarly, if fundamentals are weakening, it might be time to sell before the stock price drops.

          Market Sentiment and News

          Market sentiment—how investors feel about the market—can significantly influence stock prices. News events, geopolitical issues, and even social media trends can cause rapid price swings. Investors should keep an eye on global and national events that may affect market psychology and individual stocks.
          However, it’s important to be cautious of emotional investing. Fear-driven sell-offs or greed-fueled buying sprees often lead to poor decisions. It’s essential to separate emotions from your strategy and focus on long-term goals.

          Dollar-Cost Averaging (DCA)

          For those who don’t want to risk trying to time the market perfectly, dollar-cost averaging (DCA) can be a great strategy. DCA involves investing a fixed amount of money at regular intervals, regardless of the stock’s price. This reduces the impact of volatility and ensures that you’re not making decisions based on short-term market movements.

          Tips for Successful Market Timing

          Avoid Chasing the Market: When a stock is rising rapidly, it can be tempting to jump in. But this could be a sign of overvaluation. Be wary of buying stocks when they’ve already had a significant price increase without fundamental backing.
          Stay Disciplined: Stick to your strategy and resist the temptation to react to every market move. Developing a solid investment plan and following it through can help avoid the emotional rollercoaster that often leads to buying high and selling low.
          Diversify Your Portfolio: Proper diversification can minimize the risk of poor timing. By holding a mix of asset types—stocks, bonds, real estate—you can weather downturns and ride out volatility.
          Use Stop-Loss Orders: These orders automatically sell a stock when it drops to a certain price, preventing larger losses if a stock declines sharply. Stop-loss orders are an essential tool for managing risk in volatile markets.
          Stay Informed: Read financial news, follow market analysts, and consider using a combination of fundamental and technical indicators to help you make informed decisions.

          When to Sell

          Knowing when to sell is just as important as knowing when to buy. While many investors focus on the excitement of buying low and selling high, they often overlook the challenge of exiting a position profitably. Here are a few reasons to consider selling:
          Reaching Your Financial Goal: If your stock has increased in value and you’ve hit your target, it might be time to lock in profits.
          Deteriorating Fundamentals: If the company’s outlook weakens, or if it no longer aligns with your investment goals, selling might be a wise choice.
          Rebalancing Your Portfolio: Over time, some stocks might grow disproportionately in your portfolio. Regularly reassessing and adjusting your holdings helps ensure that you’re not overexposed to any one stock.

          Conclusion: Patience is Key

          Mastering stock market timing is more about consistency and making informed decisions than about chasing every price fluctuation. Successful investors understand that while market timing can yield higher returns, it’s often a game of patience and discipline. Use the strategies above, trust your analysis, and don’t let short-term market movements dictate your long-term strategy.
          To stay updated on all economic events of today, please check out our Economic calendar
          Risk Warnings and Disclaimers
          You understand and acknowledge that there is a high degree of risk involved in trading. Following any strategies or investment methods may lead to potential losses. The content on the site is provided by our contributors and analysts for information purposes only. You are solely responsible for determining whether any trading assets, securities, strategy, or any other product is suitable for investing based on your own investment objectives and financial situation.
          Add to Favorites
          Share

          Nuclear Energy stocks slide up to 6% on US-India deal

          Cohen

          Stocks

          Shares of nuclear energy-related companies such as BHEL, L&T, Kirloskar Brothers, KSB, Walchandnagar Industries, and Power Mech Projects fell by up to 6 percent on February 14 after Prime Minister Narendra Modi and US President Donald Trump announced plans to move forward with building American-designed nuclear reactors in India. This development has sparked concerns about the role of Indian companies in the nuclear energy value chain.
          The civil nuclear deal, originally signed over 16 years ago, is now being revived with an emphasis on large-scale localisation and potential technology transfer.
          However, while the agreement theoretically grants India access to advanced US nuclear technology and materials, enhancing the country’s energy security, the details raise concerns, according to Shlok Srivastav, Co-founder & COO of Appreciate, a SEBI and IFSCA-registered firm.
          Catch all the market action on our LIVE blog
          Srivastav highlighted that the deal’s focus on US-designed nuclear reactors implies a leading role for American companies. Despite promises of localisation, core technology and design leadership may remain in US hands.
          "The key issue is whether core technology and design expertise will genuinely be transferred to Indian companies," he noted.
          The renewed talks between Prime Minister Modi and President Trump echo the initial civil nuclear cooperation discussions from July 2005, which stalled due to various reasons, including India’s strict liability laws. At the time, US nuclear reactor manufacturers such as General Electric and Westinghouse had expressed strong interest in establishing nuclear reactors in India.
          In addition to concerns over the limited role of Indian companies in the nuclear sector, the sharp decline in stock prices also reflects stretched valuations, according to Deven Choksey, Managing Director of DRChoksey Finserv.
          Currently, shares of Power Mech are trading at a 3.2x price-to-book (PB) ratio, higher than its five-year average of 2.6x. BHEL is trading at 2.7x PB, significantly above its five-year average of 1.5x, while L&T is at 5.1x PB, exceeding its five-year average of 3.7x.Disclaimer: The views and investment tips expressed by investment experts on Moneycontrol.com are their own and not those of the website or its management. Moneycontrol.com advises users to check with certified experts before taking any investment decisions.

          Source:Moneycontrot

          Risk Warnings and Disclaimers
          You understand and acknowledge that there is a high degree of risk involved in trading. Following any strategies or investment methods may lead to potential losses. The content on the site is provided by our contributors and analysts for information purposes only. You are solely responsible for determining whether any trading assets, securities, strategy, or any other product is suitable for investing based on your own investment objectives and financial situation.
          Add to Favorites
          Share

          Equity Market vs. Stock Market: Key Differences

          Glendon

          Economic

          When you think about investing, you’ve probably heard terms like “stock market” and “equity market” thrown around interchangeably. However, despite their similarities, these two terms refer to different aspects of the financial world. Understanding the distinctions between the equity market and the stock market is essential for investors who want to navigate the complexities of global finance effectively. In this article, we’ll break down the differences, explain what each market represents, and explore why it’s important to understand these distinctions when making investment decisions.

          What is the Stock Market?

          The stock market refers to the collection of exchanges and markets where buying and selling of publicly traded company stocks occur. These stocks represent ownership shares of a company. When a company goes public through an initial public offering (IPO), it issues shares that can be bought and sold by investors. The stock market is primarily focused on the trading of these equity shares.
          The stock market can be broken down into various exchanges such as:
          The New York Stock Exchange (NYSE)
          NASDAQ
          London Stock Exchange (LSE)
          These exchanges facilitate the buying and selling of shares and provide a platform for price discovery, where buyers and sellers agree on a stock's market value based on demand and supply.
          While stocks are a major focus of the stock market, it’s important to note that the market also encompasses other types of assets, such as exchange-traded funds (ETFs), options, and bonds. However, the term “stock market” is commonly associated with the buying and selling of equity stocks—ownership shares in companies.

          What is the Equity Market?

          The equity market, on the other hand, is a broader term that refers to the market where equity securities (such as stocks) are bought and sold. It represents a category of financial markets in which companies raise capital by issuing shares to the public. In other words, the equity market is part of the stock market, but it extends beyond just the buying and selling of shares.
          The equity market also includes the primary market, where companies issue new shares to raise capital (usually via IPOs), and the secondary market, where previously issued shares are traded among investors. The term “equity market” can include all transactions involving equity securities, not just those involving publicly listed companies but also private equity, venture capital, and other forms of equity financing.
          In summary, while the stock market is a specific part of the equity market that focuses on publicly traded stocks, the equity market encompasses a broader spectrum of equity-related transactions, including both public and private shares.

          Key Differences Between the Equity Market and the Stock Market

          Scope of Market

          Stock Market: Refers mainly to the buying and selling of stocks of publicly traded companies on stock exchanges such as the NYSE and NASDAQ. It is a subset of the broader financial markets.
          Equity Market: A broader term that encompasses the buying and selling of all types of equity securities, including public stocks, private equity, and venture capital.

          Public vs. Private

          Stock Market: Primarily focuses on publicly traded companies that are listed on exchanges. Stocks can be bought and sold by individual investors, institutional investors, or hedge funds.
          Equity Market: Includes both publicly traded stocks (in the secondary market) and private equity transactions. The equity market covers a wider spectrum, including private companies raising capital through equity financing.

          Market Participants

          Stock Market: Includes retail investors, institutional investors, mutual funds, and traders who are focused on buying and selling shares of publicly listed companies.
          Equity Market: Involves a wider range of participants, such as companies raising capital through new stock issuance, private equity firms, venture capitalists, and accredited investors.

          Capital Raising vs. Trading

          Stock Market: Primarily a trading platform where investors buy and sell shares. It helps in the price discovery of stocks through the secondary market but doesn’t directly facilitate the initial capital raising process for companies.
          Equity Market: Facilitates both the

          capital raising process

          (through IPOs, private equity funding, etc.) and the trading of existing equity securities. It’s involved in the creation and distribution of new shares to investors and also allows for the buying and selling of these shares.

          Types of Securities Traded

          Stock Market: The focus is almost entirely on the trading of shares (stocks) of companies.
          Equity Market: In addition to stocks, the equity market may include other equity-related securities like convertible bonds, preferred shares, or equity warrants.

          Market Structure

          Stock Market: Structured around exchanges and organized markets where buyers and sellers transact publicly, and stock prices are determined by demand and supply dynamics.
          Equity Market: Includes both the formal stock market and private equity deals, venture capital transactions, and other informal transactions that may not be traded on a public exchange.

          Why Understanding the Difference Matters

          Knowing the distinction between the equity market and the stock market is crucial for several reasons:
          Investor Strategy: Understanding the difference helps investors choose where they want to focus their efforts. If you're interested in publicly traded companies, the stock market is your playground. If you're looking into private equity, you may need to venture into the equity market.
          Market Conditions: Market conditions in the equity market can affect the stock market and vice versa. For example, when private companies raise capital or experience growth, their IPOs might affect the stock market when they list publicly.
          Investment Opportunities: Different markets may offer different types of investment opportunities. For example, the equity market may involve higher-risk opportunities like private equity or venture capital, while the stock market may provide more liquidity and lower barriers to entry for retail investors.

          Conclusion

          While the stock market and the equity market are related, they are not the same thing. The stock market is a subset of the equity market, primarily focused on publicly traded stocks, while the equity market encompasses all forms of equity securities, both public and private. Understanding these differences is essential for any investor looking to make informed decisions about where to put their money.
          By gaining a clear grasp of the roles these markets play, you can better navigate investment choices, whether you’re buying stocks on the open market or exploring opportunities in private equity or venture capital.
          To stay updated on all economic events of today, please check out our Economic calendar
          Risk Warnings and Disclaimers
          You understand and acknowledge that there is a high degree of risk involved in trading. Following any strategies or investment methods may lead to potential losses. The content on the site is provided by our contributors and analysts for information purposes only. You are solely responsible for determining whether any trading assets, securities, strategy, or any other product is suitable for investing based on your own investment objectives and financial situation.
          Add to Favorites
          Share

          Why Gold Prices Crash and When to Act

          Glendon

          Economic

          Gold has long been revered as a symbol of wealth and a safe haven during times of economic uncertainty. However, its price is far from stable. Understanding why gold prices crash and knowing when to act can help investors make informed decisions and protect their portfolios. This article delves into the factors driving gold price declines, historical examples, and actionable strategies for navigating these turbulent moments.

          Why Do Gold Prices Crash?

          Stronger U.S. Dollar

          Gold is priced in U.S. dollars, making it sensitive to the dollar's strength. When the dollar rises, gold becomes more expensive for foreign investors, reducing demand and causing prices to drop. For instance, during periods of Federal Reserve rate hikes, the dollar often strengthens, leading to downward pressure on gold prices.

          Rising Interest Rates

          Gold does not yield interest, making it less attractive when interest rates rise. Higher rates increase the opportunity cost of holding gold, prompting investors to shift to yield-bearing assets like bonds. The 2013–2015 gold price collapse, for example, was partly driven by expectations of Fed rate normalization.

          Economic Stability and Growth

          When economies are strong, investors favor riskier assets like stocks over safe havens like gold. A robust stock market or signs of economic recovery can lead to reduced demand for gold, causing prices to fall. This was evident during the late 1990s tech boom, when gold prices stagnated.

          Decreased Inflation or Deflation Fears

          Gold is often seen as a hedge against inflation. When inflation fears subside, demand for gold diminishes. For example, the lack of high inflation in the U.S. post-2008 financial crisis contributed to gold's decline from its 2011 peak.

          Geopolitical Stability

          Gold thrives in times of geopolitical uncertainty. When tensions ease, investors may sell gold, leading to price drops. The post-U.S. election gold price decline in 2024, for instance, was attributed to reduced political uncertainty.

          Market Liquidation

          During financial crises, investors may sell gold to cover losses in other asset classes, increasing supply and driving prices down. This was observed during the 2008 financial crisis when gold initially fell before rebounding.

          Historical Examples of Gold Price Crashes

          1980–2002: The Great Gold Collapse

          Gold prices fell from 850 per ounce in1980 to 250 by 2002, driven by high real interest rates, economic growth, and reduced inflation fears. The collapse was exacerbated by the success of Reaganomics and the IT boom of the 1990s.

          2011–2015: The Post-Financial Crisis Decline

          After reaching a peak of 1,920 perouncein 2011,gold prices plummeted to1,050 by 2015. Factors included Fed rate hike expectations, a strong dollar, and the absence of runaway inflation 10.

          2024 Post-Election Dip

          Following the U.S. presidential election in 2024, gold prices dropped by 8%, reflecting reduced political uncertainty and potential Fed policy shifts under the new administration 46.

          When to Act: Strategies for Investors

          Buy the Dip

          Gold price crashes can present buying opportunities. For long-term investors, purchasing gold during downturns can yield significant returns when prices rebound. For example, gold's recovery after the 2015 low led to new highs in 2020 16.

          Diversify Your Portfolio

          Gold should be part of a diversified portfolio to mitigate risks. Allocating 5%–10% to gold can provide stability during market volatility 69.

          Monitor Economic Indicators

          Keep an eye on inflation rates, interest rate trends, and geopolitical developments. These factors can signal potential gold price movements and help you time your investments 811.

          Consider Alternative Gold Investments

          Beyond physical gold, explore gold ETFs, mining stocks, or futures contracts. These options offer flexibility and liquidity, allowing you to capitalize on price movements without holding physical metal 69.

          Stay Informed and Adapt

          The gold market is influenced by a complex interplay of factors. Staying informed about global economic trends and central bank policies is crucial for making timely decisions 11.

          Conclusion

          Gold price crashes are driven by a combination of economic, geopolitical, and market factors. While these declines can be unsettling, they also present opportunities for savvy investors. By understanding the reasons behind gold price drops and adopting a strategic approach, you can navigate market volatility and protect your wealth. Whether you choose to buy the dip, diversify your portfolio, or explore alternative investments, staying informed and adaptable is key to success in the gold market.
          To stay updated on all economic events of today, please check out our Economic calendar
          Risk Warnings and Disclaimers
          You understand and acknowledge that there is a high degree of risk involved in trading. Following any strategies or investment methods may lead to potential losses. The content on the site is provided by our contributors and analysts for information purposes only. You are solely responsible for determining whether any trading assets, securities, strategy, or any other product is suitable for investing based on your own investment objectives and financial situation.
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          China January Bank Lending Hits Record High On Policy Stimulus

          Cohen

          Economic

          New bank loans in China surged more than expected to an all-time high in January as the central bank moved to shore up a patchy economic recovery, reinforcing expectations for more stimulus in the coming months.

          Chinese banks extended 5.13 trillion yuan (US$706.40 billion or RM3.1 trillion) in new yuan loans in January, more than quadrupling the December figure, data from the People's Bank of China showed on Friday, beating analysts' forecasts

          Analysts polled by Reuters had predicted new yuan loans would rise to 4.5 trillion yuan last month, up sharply from 990 billion yuan in December and compared with 4.92 trillion yuan a year earlier — the previous record.

          Chinese banks usually rush to lend at the beginning of the year as they compete for higher-quality customers and win market share, but lingering economic uncertainty continues to weigh on credit demand.

          New bank lending totalled 18.09 trillion yuan last year, down from a record 22.75 trillion yuan in 2023 and hitting the lowest level since 2019, as businesses and consumers remained cautious about taking on more debt amid an uncertain economic outlook.

          The economy grew 5%in 2024, meeting the government's official target, but the post-pandemic recovery has been patchy, with exports and manufacturing making up for weak domestic consumption.

          Beijing is expected to maintain a growth target of around 5% this year, but analysts are uncertain over how quickly policymakers can revive sluggish domestic demand, even as US President Donald Trump's aggressive trade measures pile more uncertainty on Chinese exporters.

          To sustain growth and counter rising external pressures, Beijing has pledged higher fiscal spending, increased debt issuance and further monetary easing.

          The central bank said on Thursday it would adjust its monetary policy at the appropriate time and use policy tools such as interest rates and bank reserve requirement ratio to support the economy, amid rising external headwinds.

          China is now facing a renewed trade war with the United States after President Donald Trump slapped sweeping 10% tariffs on all Chinese imports.

          In response, Beijing announced tariffs up to 15% on some US imports starting February 10.

          Still, the measures were more modest than markets had feared, raising hopes there was room for negotiating.

          Since September, Beijing has stepped up efforts to get the economy back on track, including interest rate cuts, a 10 trillion yuan debt relief package for local government, and tax incentives to spur demand in the crisis-hit property market.

          Broad M2 money supply grew 7.0% from a year earlier, the central bank data showed, below analysts' 7.2% forecast in a Reuters poll. In December, M2 expanded 7.3%.

          Outstanding yuan loans rose 7.5% in January from a year earlier, down from the 7.6% pace in December. Analysts had expected 7.3% growth.

          Source: Theedgemarkets

          To stay updated on all economic events of today, please check out our Economic calendar
          Risk Warnings and Disclaimers
          You understand and acknowledge that there is a high degree of risk involved in trading. Following any strategies or investment methods may lead to potential losses. The content on the site is provided by our contributors and analysts for information purposes only. You are solely responsible for determining whether any trading assets, securities, strategy, or any other product is suitable for investing based on your own investment objectives and financial situation.
          Add to Favorites
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          Reciprocal Tariffs Are on, but VAT Is the Bigger Elephant in the Room

          ING

          Economic

          Three weeks into office, President Trump advanced his 'America First' trade agenda by investigating reciprocal tariffs and scrutinising the VAT system, viewing it as a tariff. While countries could lower tariffs to US levels to avoid new tariffs, abolishing the VAT system is unlikely.

          The next stage in trade escalation: reciprocal tariffs and targeting VAT

          While new tariff announcements were eagerly awaited, Trump instead directed key government officials to investigate the complex task of applying reciprocal tariffs, where a country matches the tariffs imposed by another country. The responsible ministers have until 1 April to submit their reports, and within 180 days, a report must be delivered on the fiscal impacts of potential trade policy changes.
          Given the time required for these investigations and implementations, the process is likely to start with trading partners with the highest trade deficits and higher tariffs than the US: China, the EU (with Germany and Ireland leading), Vietnam, Japan, South Korea, Taiwan, and India.
          In theory, to avoid tariffs, these countries could lower or abolish their tariffs or manufacture their goods in the US. Yet, there is a difficulty in lowering tariffs for one country only, as this would trigger the Most Favoured Nation (MFN) principle, which requires a country to extend the same favourable trade terms to all its trading partners that it grants to any one of them, i.e., granting the lowest tariff to any other nation with MFN status. Likewise implementing reciprocal tariffs would also conflict with the MFN clause, because it involves treating different countries differently based on their specific trade policies, undermining one of the key pillars of the World Trade Organisation (WTO).
          But there is an even more significant caveat in this announcement: the investigation into the value-added tax (VAT) system, a tax on final consumption, which the US administration views as similar to a tariff. Countries could, in principle, lower their tariffs to US levels. However, abolishing the VAT system is extremely unlikely. In the EU, VAT revenues account for 7.5% of GDP and 18.6% of total tax revenues (as of 2022). The EU-27 average standard VAT rate was 21.5% in 2023, with Luxembourg at 16% and Hungary at 27%. Globally, 175 countries have a VAT system, with the US being one of the few exceptions, using a sales tax system by state varying from 0% to 11.5%, instead. Since VAT is typically applied as a destination-based tax, meaning it is charged based on where the goods or services are consumed rather than where they are produced, it aligns with WTO principles.
          Avoiding tariffs, therefore, seems to be an impossible task, especially since the memo is not limited to tariffs, nor VAT, but extends the investigation into non-tariff barriers such as digital trade barriers, exchange rates, and other unfair market access limitations.

          Who will get a deal and who will not? India and Japan lined up for a deal, while the EU and China might not get as lucky

          Nevertheless, the window for deals is still open. And so far, Trump’s tariffs have been used to bring countries to the table for Trump’s domestic agenda. Remember that no new tariffs have entered into force except for additional 10% tariffs on Chinese goods. Steel and aluminium tariffs will only enter into force on 12 March, while tariffs on Mexican and Canadian goods have been delayed until 4 March and might never see the light of day given the interconnectedness between those three economies.
          Since President Trump sees himself as a dealmaker, we still expect the US administration to use targeted tariffs to gain concessions, at least for the time being. India, Japan, and Australia have already positioned themselves for potential trade deals.
          During a summit between the US and Japan in the first week of February, Japanese Prime Minister Ishiba announced plans to raise investment in the US by some $200 billion and to buy more LNG from the US. India’s Prime Minister Modi already slashed tariffs on an array of goods, such as heavyweight motorcycles from 50% to 30% and smaller bikes from 50% to 40%, and scrapped tariffs on satellite ground installations altogether. Also, the Indian government promised to take back undocumented Indian immigrants and pledged to buy more US oil.

          US tariff plans highly likely to spark legal and retaliatory backlash

          But others might not get as lucky. We see Europe and China in the spotlight here, which have long been a thorn in Trump's side. While the European Union still prefers negotiations, it has positioned itself strongly by announcing plans to fight back against unfair trade practices. In fact, the US also applies higher tariffs to certain product categories, such as clothing (12% in the EU and up to 32% in the US) and light vehicle trucks (10% in the EU and 25% in the US). While a White House official said Trump would gladly lower tariffs if other nations lowered theirs, it highlights the complexity and the challenges in achieving mutually beneficial agreements.
          And, if history is anything to go by, EU policymakers will not be the only ones opting for retaliation in the event of failed negotiations. Similarly, China has taken a firm stance, implementing retaliatory measures to protect its interests against the 10% tariff hike from the US, although its combination of measures shows China is taking care not to flip the proverbial table but also to show it has cards to hit back at real US economic interests if talks sour.

          From “The Art of the Deal” to “America First”- unilateral tariffs might still be on after April

          The 1 April and 30 April deadlines will now be watched even more closely. Even before his reciprocal tariff memo, President Trump had ordered a comprehensive investigation into America’s trade policy, looking into unfair and unbalanced trade, the trade policy with China, and additional economic security measures as well as foreign subsidies on US federal procurement.
          As mentioned earlier, no new tariffs have entered into force except for additional 10% tariffs on Chinese goods, leaving room for negotiation. But while initial deals might be made, the goal of increasing tariff revenues for domestic tax cuts could lead to unilateral tariffs. And the complexity of the customs project will make it easy for the US to take targeted country-by-country measures as of April. This means a bumpy ride ahead. President Trump has set the stage for further trade escalations, and with retaliation likely, things could get nasty pretty soon.
          To stay updated on all economic events of today, please check out our Economic calendar
          Risk Warnings and Disclaimers
          You understand and acknowledge that there is a high degree of risk involved in trading. Following any strategies or investment methods may lead to potential losses. The content on the site is provided by our contributors and analysts for information purposes only. You are solely responsible for determining whether any trading assets, securities, strategy, or any other product is suitable for investing based on your own investment objectives and financial situation.
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