Japan’s Pro-Stimulus Advisers to Outline Economic Vision Ahead of Critical BOJ Policy Meeting

Economic

Summary:

Key economic advisers to Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi will speak at a business forum on December 17, just one day before the Bank of Japan’s policy meeting...

Strategic Timing Ahead of BOJ’s December Deliberations

In a move poised to influence both markets and monetary policymakers, a group of influential economic advisers aligned with Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi’s reflationary agenda will headline a panel discussion hosted by Keidanren, Japan’s top business lobby, on December 17. This event comes just 24 hours before the Bank of Japan (BOJ) begins its two-day monetary policy meeting, scheduled for December 18–19. The proximity of the forum to the BOJ meeting has sparked speculation that it may serve as a signal-setting venue for the administration’s preferred economic direction.

The panel will feature prominent voices such as Etsuro Honda and Masazumi Wakatabe, both of whom have historically championed accommodative monetary policy and fiscal expansion. Their participation is notable not just for their ideological alignment with Takaichi, but for their potential to shape the BOJ's policy tone through public discourse.

Reflationary Policy Advocates Reassert Influence

Prime Minister Takaichi, who assumed office last month, has made reflating the Japanese economy a cornerstone of her economic platform. Her administration finalized a ¥20 trillion ($135 billion) stimulus package on Friday, financed in large part through new debt issuance. The December 17 panel, taking place from 2 to 4 p.m. in Tokyo, offers a platform for key economic thinkers to reinforce the administration’s policy priorities ahead of what could be a pivotal BOJ decision.

Etsuro Honda has already warned against further rate hikes by the central bank, citing risks to economic recovery. Similarly, former BOJ Deputy Governor Masazumi Wakatabe told Reuters that it would be difficult for the central bank to justify another rate increase before the end of the year. Other panelists include economists Toshihiro Nagahama and Takuji Aida, both of whom have served on government panels advocating for large-scale stimulus.

Causal Interplay Between Fiscal Policy, Monetary Strategy, and Currency Pressures

The timing of the event also reflects the delicate balance between fiscal expansion and monetary normalization. Since Takaichi took office, concerns over aggressive government spending combined with the BOJ’s slow pace of interest rate normalization have weighed on the Japanese yen, which has fallen to a 10-month low against the U.S. dollar. The depreciation has raised fresh fears over imported inflation, prompting warnings from financial authorities about the potential impact on consumer prices.

This presents a complex causal landscape: Takaichi’s stimulus-led strategy supports short-term growth but intensifies downward pressure on the yen, which in turn may compel the BOJ to consider rate hikes to stabilize the currency and manage inflation. Yet with core inflation still hovering around the BOJ’s target and growth remaining fragile, rate increases carry significant risks to domestic demand and debt sustainability.

Monetary Policy at a Crossroads: What’s at Stake for the BOJ

The December BOJ meeting will likely be a critical inflection point. If the board signals readiness to raise rates in early 2026, it would mark a departure from over a decade of ultra-loose monetary policy. However, the political environment, shaped by a newly elected administration with a pro-stimulus mandate, complicates that pathway.

The BOJ must now weigh external pressure to address yen weakness and inflation concerns against internal pressure to maintain accommodative conditions for fiscal stimulus to take effect. The public remarks of Honda, Wakatabe, and other reflationist advisers on December 17 may provide insight into how the administration expects the central bank to position itself.

With Japan navigating a fragile recovery, high debt levels, and volatile currency markets, the coordination between fiscal and monetary policy is more consequential than ever. The Keidanren panel offers a strategic opportunity for Prime Minister Takaichi’s economic advisers to assert their vision at a critical moment, potentially swaying the BOJ’s decision-making framework. Investors, policymakers, and international observers will be watching closely to discern whether Japan will double down on stimulus or begin recalibrating its approach to inflation and currency management.

Source: Reuters

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Gerik

Economic

Stocks

Broad-Based Sell-Off Mirrors Wall Street Volatility

Asian equities plunged on November 21 as markets mirrored the previous day’s dramatic downturn in U.S. stocks. Major indices across the region gave up earlier gains, with Japan’s Nikkei 225 falling 2.4% to 48,645.95, South Korea’s KOSPI plunging 3.9%, and China’s Hang Seng and Shanghai Composite indices down 2.3% and 1.8%, respectively. Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 dropped 1.5%, while Taiwan’s Taiex slid 3.2%. The widespread retreat follows one of the most volatile trading sessions on Wall Street this year, where initial optimism around AI leader Nvidia gave way to deep concerns about asset overvaluation.

The cause of this synchronized regional decline is rooted in investor anxiety over the artificial intelligence sector’s sharp rally, which many now fear is unsustainable. The U.S. session on Thursday was defined by a sudden shift in sentiment: Nvidia and other AI-driven stocks surged early before collapsing later in the day. The Nasdaq Composite ended 2.2% lower, the S&P 500 dropped 1.6%, and the Dow Jones Industrial Average lost 0.8%.

AI Bubble Concerns Deepen Despite Strong Nvidia Earnings

Nvidia, a bellwether for the AI hype cycle, initially buoyed investor confidence with robust earnings and a revenue forecast that exceeded expectations. CEO Jensen Huang rejected concerns of an AI bubble, attempting to reassure markets. However, despite these fundamentals, traders appeared unconvinced. Nvidia’s stock reversed from a 5% morning gain to close 3.2% lower, illustrating that technical momentum and valuation fatigue may now be overpowering earnings performance.

The broader correlation between Nvidia’s reversal and losses in other tech-heavy markets, such as South Korea and Taiwan, signals that AI-driven sentiment is still the dominant force shaping regional risk appetite. SK Hynix and Samsung Electronics two key semiconductor players fell 8.6% and 5.8%, respectively, as investor nervousness spread across global chip and data infrastructure stocks.

Fed Policy Expectations Recalibrated on Strong Labor Data

Adding to the global market strain was stronger-than-expected U.S. employment data. The economy added 119,000 jobs in September, more than double the forecast of 50,000. While this suggests economic strength, the causal implication is that the Federal Reserve may delay or cancel its next interest rate cut, as inflationary pressures may persist.

With the Fed potentially holding rates higher for longer, growth-sensitive assets like tech and AI stocks become less attractive due to their reliance on low borrowing costs to justify high valuations. This monetary policy reassessment has compounded volatility and shifted market psychology away from risk-on positioning.

Japan Faces Dual Pressures: Tariffs and Stimulus Expectations

Japan’s economy faces its own set of pressures. Despite a 3.7% rise in exports globally in October, shipments to the U.S. declined due to new 15% tariffs under President Donald Trump’s trade framework. This export hit, combined with elevated inflation (3.0% in October), has dampened investor sentiment. Meanwhile, investors are awaiting details of a stimulus package from Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi, with anticipation of fiscal expansion weakening the yen and placing pressure on government bonds.

Political tensions with China over Taiwan have further unsettled regional investors, adding a layer of geopolitical risk that weighed on Chinese and Japanese equities. The deterioration in diplomatic relations could potentially disrupt trade channels and deepen volatility in the weeks ahead.

Oil Prices and Currency Markets Reflect Risk-Off Sentiment

In commodities, oil prices slipped as investor sentiment cooled. U.S. benchmark crude fell by 77 cents to $58.23 per barrel, while Brent crude dropped 68 cents to $62.70. These declines reflect expectations of softer demand amid tightening financial conditions. Currency movements were relatively muted: the U.S. dollar edged down slightly to 157.39 yen, while the euro firmed marginally to $1.1539.

Friday’s sell-off across Asian equities highlights the fragile nature of current market sentiment. While Nvidia’s earnings momentarily reignited AI enthusiasm, the broader market quickly pivoted to focus on stretched valuations, Federal Reserve policy uncertainty, and geopolitical instability. With little clarity on the Fed’s next move and concerns of an AI bubble persisting, investors appear poised for continued turbulence. The risk-off tone could deepen unless forthcoming data or policy guidance provides more definitive support for global risk assets.

Source: AP

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Economic

Stocks

Market Sentiment Reverses as AI Surge Gives Way to Skepticism

What began as a high-energy rally on Wall Street quickly turned into one of the most volatile trading sessions in recent months. On November 20, 2025, the Nasdaq Composite closed down 2.16% after climbing as much as 2.6% in the morning. Similarly, the S&P 500 fell 1.56% and the Dow Jones Industrial Average dropped 0.84%, despite intraday gains earlier in the session. The reversal came swiftly and was largely driven by renewed concerns surrounding the sustainability of the artificial intelligence sector’s meteoric rise.

Nvidia was at the center of this turmoil. Initially surging 5% on investor optimism following statements from CEO Jensen Huang dismissing the existence of an AI bubble, the stock reversed course and ended the day down 3.2%. The pattern was mirrored by fellow AI-linked names like Oracle and AMD, suggesting that broader market sentiment could not be calmed by a single executive’s reassurance.

Nvidia’s Outlook Strong, But Market Eyes Broader Systemic Risks

The company’s CFO, Colette Kress, reaffirmed Nvidia’s bullish revenue outlook, projecting a “half a trillion” forecast, while minimizing the role of Chinese demand in the latest quarter. Despite this, the stock market's reaction indicates that investor optimism in the AI space may have reached unsustainable levels. The initial spike in Nvidia’s share price reveals a correlational relationship between investor sentiment and high-profile corporate forecasts, but the rapid selloff afterward suggests underlying skepticism about whether the AI boom is built on stable foundations.

Analysts caution that while Nvidia’s fundamentals remain robust, the broader AI ecosystem particularly data center builders and firms heavily leveraging debt may be more vulnerable. According to Gil Luria from D.A. Davidson, the concern is not with the chipmakers but rather with downstream companies overextending themselves financially to support AI infrastructure demands.

Labor Market Data Fuels Fed Rate Speculation

Thursday’s turmoil was exacerbated by stronger-than-expected labor market data. The U.S. economy added 119,000 jobs in September, far surpassing the 50,000 estimate. While this would normally be interpreted as a positive signal, in the current macroeconomic context, it has the opposite effect. A robust labor market reduces the likelihood of the Federal Reserve cutting interest rates in the near term a key hope that had helped fuel risk asset rallies throughout the year.

As a result, traders revised their expectations, with CME FedWatch data indicating a higher probability that rates will remain unchanged in December. The causal relationship here is straightforward: stronger employment metrics decrease the urgency for the Fed to pivot toward monetary easing, thereby placing downward pressure on equities especially those with high growth valuations like AI stocks.

Bubble Talk Gains Momentum, But No Immediate Popping Sound

The sudden shift in market tone was further amplified by high-profile voices like Bridgewater founder Ray Dalio, who publicly stated that "the picture is pretty clear" regarding the presence of a financial bubble. While he advised investors to remain invested for now, his remarks underscored a growing unease that has begun to spread through institutional circles.

Dalio’s statement did not point to an imminent collapse, but it reinforced the narrative that market valuations particularly in sectors like AI may be detached from sustainable fundamentals. This concern, when layered over a delayed monetary policy pivot and stretched corporate borrowing, paints a picture of fragility beneath the recent tech-driven rally.

Global Market Divergence Reflects Differing Investor Priorities

While the U.S. indices closed deep in the red, Europe’s Stoxx 600 climbed 0.4%, supported by gains in AI-related firms such as ASML and BESI. This divergence may be partially explained by differing exposure to U.S. interest rate policy and sector concentration, but it also highlights that AI enthusiasm remains alive in certain global pockets. However, that enthusiasm is increasingly tempered by selectivity and fundamental analysis.

Bitcoin also joined the downturn, hitting its lowest level since April, showing that risk aversion extended beyond equities and into crypto markets suggesting a broader de-risking across speculative assets.

Thursday’s trading session demonstrated how quickly market narratives can unravel, especially when speculative momentum meets macroeconomic reality. Nvidia’s strong forecast offered temporary confidence, but investor anxiety about inflated valuations, monetary tightening, and overleveraged AI infrastructure projects quickly overrode the optimism. As the year winds down, the question is no longer whether AI is the future, but whether markets have already priced in too much of that future too quickly. Investors now face the delicate task of distinguishing between sustainable innovation and speculative froth while keeping one eye on the Fed and the other on earnings reports.

Source: CNBC

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Economic

Mixed Trade Performance Highlights Diverging Regional Trends

Japan’s export sector showed signs of resilience in October, posting a 3.7% year-on-year increase in global shipments, while imports edged up 0.6%, according to the Finance Ministry’s latest data. However, the country’s trade relationship with the United States continued to deteriorate, with exports to its largest non-Asian partner declining 3.1% a trend now in its seventh consecutive month. This export contraction is largely attributable to the tariff framework introduced by President Donald Trump, which imposed a 15% levy on most Japanese imports starting in July 2025.

Although the new tariff rate is lower than the initially proposed 25%, it still represents a significant escalation from the previous average of 2.5%. The causal relationship between these heightened tariffs and Japan’s declining exports to the U.S. is reflected in reduced shipments of key products such as computer parts, industrial machinery, buses, and trucks. As these goods become more expensive for U.S. buyers, Japanese exporters face reduced demand and eroded competitiveness.

Import Dynamics Reflect Broader Shifts in Bilateral Trade

Interestingly, Japan’s imports from the U.S. surged 20.9% in October, suggesting a shift in bilateral trade balance. This growth was led by food products, especially cereals, as well as petroleum. The increase may stem from seasonal demand and the relative cost-effectiveness of U.S. agricultural exports despite the broader trade tensions. The juxtaposition of declining Japanese exports to the U.S. with rising American imports indicates a widening asymmetry that is unfavorable to Japan’s trade surplus goals.

Beyond bilateral trade, soybean imports from all global sources surged 37.3%, possibly due to domestic agricultural supply issues or feedstock demand. Meanwhile, imports of iron and steel dropped 17.1%, likely reflecting a cooling in construction or manufacturing investment cycles.

Asia Emerges as a Growth Engine Amid U.S. Weakness

Japan’s trade data reveals a regional rebalancing in its export strategy. Exports to China rose 2.1%, while shipments to Hong Kong and Taiwan posted significant gains of 19.2% and 17.7%, respectively. These trends suggest that Japan is actively shifting its export focus toward more receptive Asian markets, both to offset U.S. trade friction and to capitalize on regional demand.

This correlational pivot toward Asia may become increasingly intentional. Analysts warn that given ongoing strain with the U.S. and new political frictions with China triggered by Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi’s pro-Taiwan comments Japan’s long-term export strategy will need to balance regional diplomacy with market diversification.

Trade Deficit Narrows, But Vulnerabilities Remain

The improved export performance and modest import rise helped Japan narrow its trade deficit to 231.77 billion yen (approximately $1.5 billion), a significant reduction from the 499.95 billion yen ($3.2 billion) recorded a year earlier. This narrowing is statistically positive, but it does not erase the structural concern that the deficit could widen again if U.S. demand continues to soften and political tensions with China escalate.

While October’s figures show that Japan is partially adapting to its new trade environment, the sustainability of its recovery remains uncertain. The government may need to strengthen ties with Southeast Asia and India to create buffers against future economic or political shocks in its two largest export markets the U.S. and China.

Japan’s October trade data underscores a complex economic reorientation shaped by tariff policies, geopolitical tensions, and shifting regional dynamics. With U.S.-bound exports in steady decline due to policy-induced friction and a rising appetite for Japanese goods in parts of Asia, Japan is recalibrating its external trade dependence. Whether this pivot will be enough to stabilize long-term growth depends on its ability to navigate a volatile global landscape while maintaining diversified export relationships and domestic resilience.

Source: AP

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Samantha Luan

Forex

Cryptocurrency

Key Points:

· XRP drops to key support as BTC weakness, ETF outflows, and fading Fed rate-cut bets intensify bearish market pressure.

· Bitwise XRP ETF launches with solid demand but lags Canary's higher debut volume, weighing on near-term sentiment.

· Crypto markets slump as liquidations surge, with leverage-driven selling pushing BTC and XRP into a 45-day decline.

XRP tumbled to its key psychological support level on Thursday, November 20, as selling pressure intensified across the broader crypto market.

XRP-spot ETFs failed to stem the selling wave, as Bitcoin (BTC) slumped to its lowest level since April 2025. XRP's continued correlation with Bitcoin exposed the token to BTC-spot ETF flows, which have weighed on sentiment in November.

Prominent crypto commentator Quinten, with more than 200,000 followers, commented on the percentage of short-term holders being underwater, stating:

"2020 COVID crash, 92% in a loss at $3,750. 2020 FTX collapse, 94% in a loss at $16,000. Today, 99% in a loss at $89,000. This is the highest short term holder capitulation ever recorded."

XRP-Spot ETFs Fail to Impress

Bitwise XRP ETF launched on Thursday, November 20, signaling robust institutional demand on its first day of trading. However, trading volumes came up short of the Canary XRP ETF's (XRPC) $59 million on day one, weighing on sentiment.

Bloomberg Intelligence analyst James Seyffart commented on Bitwise XRP ETF's first day of trading, stating:

"With a bit over ~2 hours left in trading, Bitwise's $XRP is almost at $22 million in trading today. Quite impressive for the second product to market a full week after Canary Funds' $XRPC, which is the #1 launch by volume this year."

Analysts had previously speculated that Bitwise and Franklin Templeton would draw significantly more demand, given their rankings on the ETF issuer Assets Under Management league table.

According to VettaFi, Franklin Templeton ranks #19 on the ETF issuer Assets Under Management (AUM) league table, with $44.7 billion in AUM. Bitwise Asset Management ranks #56, with $5.6 billion in AUM. The first-to-market XRP-spot ETF issuer, Canary Capital, ranks #231, with $84.82 million in AUM.

However, market conditions are likely to have impacted trading volumes. For context, the US BTC-spot ETF market is facing net outflows of $3 billion in November.

There were no new market events to trigger Thursday's sell-off. However, sentiment remains weak due to two key October events. The US government shutdown and President Trump's threat of raising tariffs on Chinese shipments by 100% have sent XRP down 30% from October 1 to November 20. The only good news for XRP holders was the swift recovery from the October 10 flash crash to $0.7773.

XRPUSD – Daily Chart – 211125 – Shutdown and Tariff Threats

Macro Pressures Deepen Losses

The Kobeissi Letter commented on the extended crypto sell-off, stating:

"The crypto collapse: On October 6th, just 45 days ago, Bitcoin hit a record high of $126,272, worth $2.5 trillion. Then, something "mechanical" seems to have shifted on October 10th, after President Trump threatened 100% tariffs on China. Not only did this lead to the record -$19.2 billion liquidation, but Bitcoin never truly recovered."

The Kobeissi Letter noted:

"Even when the October 30th trade deal was reached between the US and China, liquidation pressures only worsened. Then, since November 10th, Bitcoin has moved in a literal straight-line lower with average daily liquidations nearing $1 billion. Throughout the course of this 45-day bear market, crypto has seen little to no bearish fundamental developments."

The Kobeissi Letter attributed the 45-day bear market to excessive levels of leverage and sporadic liquidations, while highlighting that conditions will steady given market efficiency.

While the October 10 flash crash has spooked investors, fading bets on a December Fed rate cut have added to the selling momentum. FOMC members have raised concerns about elevated inflation, while downplaying a cooling labor market, suggesting a delay to further policy easing.

According to the CME FedWatch Tool, the chances of a December rate cut fell from 50.1% on November 13 to 39.1% on November 20. For context, the probability of a December cut stood at 98.8% on October 20. XRP has fallen 16.4% since October 20, reflecting the Fed's influence on sentiment.

Crucially, the absence of key US economic reports has left XRP and the broader crypto market in a tailspin. Updated inflation and jobs data could change the narrative if inflation softens and the labor market continues to cool rather than collapse.

Technical Outlook: Key XRP Price Levels

XRP slid 5.17% on Thursday, November 20, following the previous day's 4.94% loss, closing at $1.9985. The token underperformed the broader crypto market, which dropped 4.84%.

Thursday's extended sell-off left the token trading well below the 50-day and 200-day Exponential Moving Averages (EMAs), affirming bearish momentum.

Looking ahead, several events could trigger a shift in sentiment, potentially sending XRP toward $2.5.

Key technical levels to watch include:

· Support levels: $2.0, $1.9112, and $1.6147.

· 50-day EMA resistance: $2.4332.

· 200-day EMA resistance: $2.5455.

· Resistance levels: $2.2, $2.35, $2.5, $2.62, $2.8, $3.0, and $3.66.

Catalysts to Watch in the Sessions Ahead

Near-term price catalysts include:

· US Services PMI data.

· Fed speakers and policy signals.

· Canary XRP ETF and Bitwise XRP ETF flows.

· Blue-chip companies' positions on XRP as a treasury reserve asset.

· Regulatory milestones: Ripple's application for a US-chartered bank license, the progress of the Market Structure Bill on Capitol Hill.

Bearish Scenario: Risks Below $2.0

· Strong US PMI data cools bets on a Fed rate cut.

· Hawkish Fed speakers.

· XRP-spot ETFs report net outflows.

· The US Senate opposes crypto-friendly legislation, including the Market Structure Bill.

· Blue-chip companies dismiss XRP as a treasury reserve asset.

· OCC delays or rejects Ripple's US-chartered bank license.

These bearish scenarios could push XRP toward $2.0. If breached, $1.9112 would be the next key support level. A break below $1.9112 could expose the April low of $1.6147. Notably, XRP has been printing lower highs and lower lows, signaling further losses.

XRPUSD – Daily Chart – 211125 – Bearish

Bullish Scenario: Path to $2.5 Remains Challenging

· Weak Services PMI data.

· Dovish Fed speeches.

· XRP-spot ETFs report strong inflows.

· Blue-chip companies target XRP as a treasury reserve asset.

· Ripple secures a US-chartered bank license, and the US Senate passes the Market Structure Bill.

A breakout above the $2.2 resistance level could open the door to testing $2.35. A sustained move through $2.35 would pave the way toward the 50-day EMA, with $2.5 the next key resistance level. Buyer demand at $2.0 will be crucial over the coming sessions.

XRPUSD – Daily Chart – 211125 – Bullish

Outlook: $2.0 Remains the Pivotal Level

The absence of key US data and Fed policy uncertainty continue to weigh on market sentiment.

However, robust demand for XRP-spot ETFs could support a price recovery, potentially driving the token towards $2.2. The launch of the Franklin XRP ETF on Monday, November 24, could prove pivotal, given Franklin Templeton's prominence in the ETF space.

The next 72 hours could determine whether XRP extends its losses or begins a recovery toward $2.5. XRP-spot ETF flows will be crucial if the token is to begin decoupling from BTC.

Source: FX Empire

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ING

Forex

Economic

South Korea: BOK to stand pat, while industrial production continues growing

The Bank of Korea will likely keep the policy rate at 2.50% on Thursday for another month, with a minor dissent vote expected. The Bank of Korea is likely to prioritise concerns about financial instability over inflation. Given no clear signs that housing prices have settled and the FX market remains volatile, the BoK has reason to keep rates unchanged. Also Thursday, the BoK releases its outlook report. Amid easing trade tensions and a stronger-than-anticipated semiconductor cycle, we believe the BoK will revise up its 2025 GDP forecast to 1.1% from 0.8% and its 2026 forecast to 1.9% from 1.6%. A GDP outlook below 2% is likely to support the BoK's continued easing policy stance. The recent hike in KTB yields reflected Governor Rhee's hawkish remarks - signalling a possible change of policy direction - during an earlier media interview. We think his remarks at press conference should be more balanced and highlight that policy decisions are data-dependent.

Industrial production is forecasted to increase for a second consecutive month, driven by strong chip output. The longer-than-expected Chuseok holiday, combined with the 2nd cash payout program, should boost service activity.

China: Industrial profit data expected to continue improving

China's industrial profits data, out Thursday, will round out the month's data releases. The data has been showing signs of improvement in the past few months, with profits so far up 3.2% YoY, year-to-date, through September, thanks to two straight months of YoY profit growth above 20% in August and September. This was boosted by a supportive base effect. Support from this effect should gradually wane in the 4Q data, but be enough to keep profit growth solidly positive in October. The industries that have been seeing strong export demand such as rail, ships, and aerospace, computers, communication, other electronic equipment manufacturing, and electrical machinery & equipment manufacturing have generally been outperformers so far this year. This trend should continue.

Japan: Tokyo CPI inflation supported by solid wage gains

Tokyo's consumer price index inflation is expected to rise 2.7% YoY in November, supported by solid wage gains. The weaker JPY probably added upward pressure. Industrial production will likely remain positive following Japan's trade agreement with the US. Despite a contraction in the third quarter, recent data suggest an economic recovery, supporting the Bank of Japan's continued policy normalisation. Market expectations for a December rate hike have fallen sharply over the week. We believe that recent BoJ comments indicate at least three board members support a more hawkish stance. However, it remains unclear if others will agree. We continue to forecast a rate hike in December, though the likelihood of a delay to January is rising.

Taiwan: Industrial production expected to accelerate slightly

We expect Taiwan's industrial production data, out Tuesday, to continue its streak of strong growth, accelerating slightly to 18.1% YoY. Strength has been quite heavily concentrated in the Information & Electronic Industries and remains vulnerable to a downturn if demand in this sector slows. While market debate on this possibility has increased recently, we do not yet see it affecting the October data.

India: Q3 GDP growth expected to slow modestly

We expect India's GDP growth in the third quarter to slow down modestly to 7.5% YoY. Export growth began to slow in 3Q due to the impact of 50% tariffs on US exports. But private consumption growth remained relatively strong, driven by GST rate cuts and the consequent boost in consumer goods purchases.

Key events in Asia next week

Source: ING

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Gerik

Economic

A Strategic Pivot Toward Resource Security

In a renewed push for resource security and economic alignment, the European Union is actively considering direct investments in Australian resources projects. Speaking from Melbourne, EU Trade Commissioner Maros Sefcovic revealed that discussions with Australian Resources Minister Madeleine King had centered on several mechanisms including equity stakes, long-term off-take agreements, and joint ventures aimed at deepening the EU’s participation in Australia’s resource sector.

These conversations come as both sides attempt to revive a long-stalled free trade agreement, one which could reshape access to critical minerals essential for Europe’s green and digital transitions. Sefcovic noted that the EU had already shortlisted several projects of interest, with a formal announcement expected imminently. This move reflects a strategic shift in the EU’s trade posture: from purely transactional trade negotiations toward more embedded, co-investment-led partnerships.

Lessons from Past Dependencies and the Case for Diversification

Sefcovic pointed to recent European overdependence on Russian oil and gas as a cautionary tale. The subsequent scramble for alternatives after the Ukraine invasion, combined with current constraints in global semiconductor and raw material supplies, has made clear the costs of reactive diversification. Rather than repeat this cycle, the EU is proactively seeking upstream control and supply stability in sectors like lithium, cobalt, and rare earths resources abundant in Australia.

The shift also mirrors strategies adopted by Japan, which has long used government-supported equity and processing investments to secure long-term access to essential inputs. By following a similar model, the EU aims to reduce exposure to geopolitical shocks and price volatility, especially in light of current global competition for these resources.

Rekindling Trade Talks with Mutual Strategic Interests

While a prior attempt to finalize an EU-Australia free trade deal collapsed in 2023 primarily due to disputes over agricultural market access the latest signals from both parties suggest renewed momentum. Australia has long sought more flexibility to export farm goods into Europe, whereas the EU is focusing on securing reliable access to Australian critical minerals and lowering barriers to its manufactured exports.

Sefcovic confirmed that another round of negotiations is scheduled for early next year, and the recent tone from both delegations is markedly more constructive. The strategic alignment on resource security is providing a new shared foundation for compromise.

A New Trade Framework Anchored in Resource Diplomacy

The EU’s willingness to move beyond tariff reduction into resource co-investment represents a broader evolution in trade policy, where economic security now intersects with environmental and geopolitical goals. Australia’s rich mineral base and stable regulatory environment make it a natural partner, especially as the EU seeks to de-risk supply chains for its ambitious climate and technology goals.

By transitioning from a buyer-supplier dynamic to one of strategic partnership, both the EU and Australia stand to benefit Europe through supply assurance, and Australia through capital inflows and diversified export markets. If successful, this model could reshape how future trade agreements are built in a resource-constrained and geopolitically complex world.

The EU’s direct engagement in Australian resource projects signals a maturing approach to trade and economic security. As both sides look to conclude a comprehensive agreement in 2026, these investments may serve not only as a foundation for shared prosperity but also as a geopolitical hedge in a world increasingly defined by competition for critical resources.

Source: Reuters

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Japan’s Pro-Stimulus Advisers to Outline Economic Vision Ahead of Critical BOJ Policy Meeting

Strategic Timing Ahead of BOJ’s December Deliberations

Reflationary Policy Advocates Reassert Influence

Causal Interplay Between Fiscal Policy, Monetary Strategy, and Currency Pressures

Monetary Policy at a Crossroads: What’s at Stake for the BOJ

Source: Reuters

Asian Markets Plunge Following Wall Street Reversal as AI Bubble Fears and Rate Uncertainty Weigh on Sentiment

Broad-Based Sell-Off Mirrors Wall Street Volatility

AI Bubble Concerns Deepen Despite Strong Nvidia Earnings

Fed Policy Expectations Recalibrated on Strong Labor Data

Japan Faces Dual Pressures: Tariffs and Stimulus Expectations

Oil Prices and Currency Markets Reflect Risk-Off Sentiment

Source: AP

From Rally to Retreat: AI Enthusiasm Fades Amid Bubble Fears and Fed Policy Repricing

Market Sentiment Reverses as AI Surge Gives Way to Skepticism

Nvidia’s Outlook Strong, But Market Eyes Broader Systemic Risks

Labor Market Data Fuels Fed Rate Speculation

Bubble Talk Gains Momentum, But No Immediate Popping Sound

Global Market Divergence Reflects Differing Investor Priorities

Source: CNBC

Japan’s Export Growth Shifts Toward Asia as U.S. Tariffs Drag Down American Trade

Mixed Trade Performance Highlights Diverging Regional Trends

Import Dynamics Reflect Broader Shifts in Bilateral Trade

Asia Emerges as a Growth Engine Amid U.S. Weakness

Trade Deficit Narrows, But Vulnerabilities Remain

Source: AP

XRP News Today: ETF Launches Lag As XRP Faces Heavy Selling

XRP-Spot ETFs Fail to Impress

XRPUSD – Daily Chart – 211125 – Shutdown and Tariff Threats

Macro Pressures Deepen Losses

Technical Outlook: Key XRP Price Levels

Catalysts to Watch in the Sessions Ahead

XRPUSD – Daily Chart – 211125 – Bearish

Bullish Scenario: Path to $2.5 Remains Challenging

XRPUSD – Daily Chart – 211125 – Bullish

Outlook: $2.0 Remains the Pivotal Level

Source: FX Empire

Bank Of Korea Rate Decision And Key Data From China, Taiwan, Japan, India

South Korea: BOK to stand pat, while industrial production continues growing

China: Industrial profit data expected to continue improving

Japan: Tokyo CPI inflation supported by solid wage gains

Taiwan: Industrial production expected to accelerate slightly

India: Q3 GDP growth expected to slow modestly

Key events in Asia next week

Source: ING

EU Eyes Strategic Investments in Australian Resources Amid Renewed Trade Momentum

A Strategic Pivot Toward Resource Security

Lessons from Past Dependencies and the Case for Diversification

Rekindling Trade Talks with Mutual Strategic Interests

A New Trade Framework Anchored in Resource Diplomacy

Source: Reuters

Risk Disclosure