Israel-Iran Conflict Unlikely To Impact US Associated Gas Production, Prices

Daniel Carter

Economic

Political

Commodity

Summary:

US associated gas production and benchmark Henry Hub prices will likely see no material impact from the Israel-Iran conflict, despite a continued risk premium reflected in the crude oil markets.

Over the past two weeks, global crude prices surged as Israel launched a major air offensive on Iran over the latter's alleged nuclear weapons program.

Amid mounting alarm over potential supply disruptions, especially for crude in the Persian Gulf and Iran, WTI crude prices climbed to over $75/b -- up about $10-$15/b from early June, data from S&P Global Commodity Insights showed.

On June 23, US President Donald Trump announced a tenuous ceasefire agreement between Israel and Iran, sending crude prices tumbling to around $68.50/b. On June 24 and June 25, however, NYMEX crude prices appeared to stabilize around $65/b, according to data from CME Group and Commodity Insights.

Although the rally was short-lived, it did raise questions about how US crude oil producers might respond to higher prices.

In a social media post on June 23, Trump appeared to be addressing the US oil industry while calling on the US Department of Energy to "DRILL, BABY, DRILL." Trump's remarks came even as crude prices were in retreat.

For the US gas market, drilling and production decisions made by domestic crude producers can and often do have profound implications for US gas supply and benchmark prices.

As a co-product of crude oil production, US associated gas output comes primarily from the Permian Basin, as well as other major oil-focused shale plays like the Eagle Ford, the Bakken, the SCOOP-STACK and the Denver-Julesburg. According to the US Energy Information Administration, associated gas production accounted for nearly 37% of total US production in 2023.

For the US gas market, higher crude prices could fuel an increase in associated gas production and potentially weigh on benchmark Henry Hub prices -- presuming that crude-weighted operators respond to the higher WTI price signal by increasing their oil output.

Although the risk of a reescalation in the Israel-Iran conflict has kept crude prices in the mid-$60s/b -- up from the low-$60s in early June, that change is unlikely to motivate many US crude oil producers to increase output -- especially considering the continued production hikes approved by OPEC+ members in recent months.

Unless WTI crude oil prices consistently hold up above $70/b, oil-directed activity should be flat to lower, according to Svetlana Tretyakova, an oil analyst with Rystad Energy.

"Capital allocation is being guided by full-year and mid-term planning, not short-term price moves," Tretyakova said. "Unless WTI moves sustainably above $70 for at least a quarter, our base case holds: production flatlines before declining in 2026 and beyond."

On June 25, as the tentative ceasefire between Israel and Iran continued to hold, NYMEX WTI crude prices were up about $1.50/b on the day to around $65.50/b, data from CME Group showed.

"With global [oil] supply unimpeded, we would expect the risk premium to continue to unwind, and for crude to potentially push lower if the US loosened sanctions on Iran's crude industry," Matt Portillo, market analyst with TPH Energy Research, said in a June 23 market note.

"Lower crude prices remain a priority for [Trump] with incremental Iranian barrels only piling onto our already bearish outlook," Portillo said.

On first-quarter earnings calls, more than a month prior to the Middle East conflict, both US and Canadian oil producers had continued to signal restraint in their planned capital spending -- a course that seems unlikley to change. Some producers also announced cuts to their drilling and completion programs. So far, efficiency gains have helped keep output stable to modestly higher this year.

From January to May, crude oil production in the Permian Basin grew from about 6.4 million b/d to an estimated 6.6 million b/d, according to data from Commodity Insights.

In the latest earnings round, more than a handful of oil-weighted producers said they were planning spending and activity cuts in the Permian -- a key basin for associated gas production that accounted for over 60% of the US total in 2024.

Among those planning reductions were Matador Resources, Occidental Petroleum, Diamondback Energy, EOG Resources and Coterra Energy, all of whom said they were planning some combination of lower spending, rig cuts and/or reduction to their well-completion programs.

Crude oil producers have kept their promise. Since the start of the second quarter, the Permian Basin rig count has continued to decline from over 290 rigs to an average 275 over the past four weeks.

Source: S&P Global Platts

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Manuel

Political

Stocks

US stock futures held steady as President Trump talked up his search for a successor to Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell.

Futures attached to the Dow Jones Industrial Average (YM=F), the benchmark S&P 500 (ES=F), and the tech-heavy Nasdaq 100 (NQ=F) flatlined.

The Wall Street Journal reported late Wednesday that the president's frustration with Powell's "wait and see" approach to interest rates has led him to consider announcing his pick to succeed the Fed chair in September or October. Powell's term ends in May 2026 and such an announcement would be far earlier than the typical three or four month transition period.

Trump said earlier on Wednesday he is actively considering replacements for Powell, adding "I know within three or four people who I’m going to pick."

Powell wrapped up two days of testifying before the House and the Senate, where he stressed to lawmakers the central bank is "well-positioned" to wait and see how Trump's tariffs are impacting the economy before reducing rates.

Stocks wobbled throughout the day with the S&P 500 finishing just below a record high. Investors' jubilation from the day before, sparked by an end to hostilities between Israel and Iran, moderated even as Trump declared the conflict "over." Nvidia (NVDA), meanwhile, leaped to a record high.

The main event for Wall Street to end the week lands Friday with the release of the Fed's preferred inflation gauge, the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) report. Investors will be watching closely for any signs that Trump's tariffs pushed prices higher.

Source: Yahoo Finance

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Daniel Carter

Political

Middle East Situation

Trump said his decision to unleash huge bunker-busting bombs in Sunday's attack had devastated Iran's nuclear program and called the outcome "a victory for everybody".

"It was very severe. It was obliteration," he said, shrugging off an initial assessment by the U.S. Defense Intelligence Agency that Iran's path to building a nuclear weapon may have been set back only by months.

Meanwhile, anxious Iranians and Israelis sought to resume normal life after 12 days of the most intense confrontation ever between the two foes and a ceasefire that took effect Tuesday.

Speaking in The Hague where he attended a NATO summit on Wednesday, Trump said he did not see Iran again engaging in nuclear weapons development. Tehran has for decades denied accusations by Western leaders that it is seeking nuclear arms.

"We're going to talk to them next week, with Iran. We may sign an agreement. I don't know. To me, I don't think it's that necessary," Trump said.

"I'll tell you, the last thing they want to do is enrich anything right now. They want to recover," he said, referring to Western accusations that Iran has been enriching uranium to near-weapons-grade purity.

Later on Wednesday, U.S. Central Intelligence Agency Director John Ratcliffe said in a statement that the U.S. air strikes had “severely damaged” Iran's nuclear program, but he stopped short of declaring that the program had been destroyed.

The agency confirmed a “body of credible evidence" that several key Iranian facilities were destroyed and would take years to rebuild, he said.

Israel's nuclear agency assessed the strikes had "set back Iran's ability to develop nuclear weapons by many years". The White House also circulated the Israeli assessment, although Trump said he was not relying on Israeli intelligence.

Trump said he was confident Tehran would pursue a diplomatic path towards reconciliation. The president gave no details on the discussions next week such as the venue and participants.

If Iran tried to rebuild its nuclear programme, "we won't let that happen. Number one, militarily we won't," he said, adding that he thought "we'll end up having something of a relationship with Iran" to resolve the issue.

The head of the U.N.'s nuclear watchdog, Rafael Grossi, dismissed what he called the "hourglass approach" of assessing damage to Iran's nuclear programme in terms of months needed to rebuild as besides the point for an issue that needed a long-term solution.

"In any case, the technological knowledge is there and the industrial capacity is there. That, no one can deny. So we need to work together with them," he said. His priority was returning international inspectors to Iranian nuclear sites, which he said was the only way to find out precisely what state they were in.

People gesture as they attend a gathering to support Iran's Armed Forces, after U.S. President Donald Trump announced a ceasefire between Israel and Iran, in Tehran, Iran, June 24, 2025.

IRAN PRESIDENT HINTS AT DOMESTIC REFORMS

Israel's bombing campaign, launched with a surprise attack on June 13, wiped out the top echelon of Iran's military leadership and killed leading nuclear scientists. Iran responded with missiles that pierced Israel's defences in large numbers for the first time.

Iranian authorities said 627 people were killed and nearly 5,000 injured in Iran, where the extent of the damage could not be independently confirmed because of tight restrictions on media. Twenty-eight people were killed in Israel.

Israel claimed to have achieved its goals of destroying Iran's nuclear sites and missiles; Iran claimed to have forced the end of the war by penetrating Israeli defences.

Israel's demonstration that it could target Iran's senior leadership seemingly at will posed perhaps the biggest challenge yet for Iran's clerical rulers, at a critical juncture when they must find a successor for Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, now 86 and in power for 36 years.

Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian, a relative moderate elected last year in a challenge to years of dominance by hardliners, said it could result in reform.

"This war and the empathy that it fostered between the people and officials is an opportunity to change the outlook of management and the behaviour of officials so that they can create unity," he said in a statement carried by state media.

Still, Iran's authorities moved swiftly to demonstrate their control. The judiciary announced the execution of three men on Wednesday convicted of collaborating with Israel's Mossad spy agency and smuggling equipment used in an assassination. Iran had arrested 700 people accused of ties with Israel during the conflict, the state-affiliated Nournews reported.

During the war, both Israel Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and Trump publicly suggested that it could end with the toppling of Iran's entire system of clerical rule, established in its 1979 revolution.

But after the ceasefire, Trump said he did not want to see "regime change" in Iran, which he said would bring chaos at a time when he wanted the situation to settle down.

RELIEF, APPREHENSION, EXHAUSTION

In both Iran and Israel, residents expressed relief at the end of the fighting, but also apprehension.

"We came back after the ceasefire was announced. People are relieved that the war has stopped, but there's a lot of uncertainty about what comes next," said Farah, 67, who returned to Tehran from nearby Lavasan, where she had fled to escape Israeli bombing.

In Tel Aviv, Rony Hoter-Ishay Meyer, 38, said the war's end brought mixed emotions: relief that children could return to school and normal life resume, but exhaustion from the stress.

"Those past two weeks were catastrophic in Israel, and we are very much exhausted and we need to get back to our normal energy."

Source: Reuters

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Manuel

Cryptocurrency

Bitcoin climbed above $108,000 on Wednesday, reaching its highest level in weeks, as traders ignored renewed unrest in the Middle East and a US stock market that stayed just below all-time highs.

The world’s OG crypto hit the intraday peak without hesitation, even while altcoins like Ether and Solana dipped slightly in the afternoon.

Meanwhile, lawmakers and regulators in Washington, D.C. made noise that could fuel even more momentum. Jerome Powell, the Federal Reserve Chair, appeared before the Senate Banking Committee earlier in the day and said that stablecoins have “come a long way” and now sit firmly inside the “traditional financial framework.”

Powell’s acknowledgment that crypto isn’t just a side show anymore came on the same day that the head of the Federal Housing Finance Agency, Billy Pulte, directed Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac to begin reviewing how crypto assets, like Bitcoin, could be used to qualify for mortgages.

Billy’s family founded Pulte Group, one of the country’s largest homebuilders, and his influence over the housing sector is substantial. That directive may be seen as a green light for digital assets in US real estate financing.

Trump’s NYSE crypto ETF faces decision window

Inside the New York Stock Exchange, officials are pushing forward a proposal tied to President Donald Trump’s Truth Social platform. The exchange submitted a rule change request that would allow the listing of a Bitcoin and Ethereum ETF linked directly to Trump’s company.

If the Securities and Exchange Commission gives it the go-ahead, it could launch within 90 days and expand the administration’s push to bring crypto closer to Wall Street. Trump, now back in the White House, has been vocal about making crypto a larger piece of the American financial system, and this ETF would mark one of the most significant steps yet.

On-chain analytics show a dramatic split in market behavior. Retail holders, wallets holding less than 1 BTC, have been selling consistently. These addresses dropped to 1.69 million BTC, a 54,500 BTC year-over-year decline, with daily outflows averaging 220 BTC. Bitcoin Tops $108,000 as Crypto Traders Shrug off Mid-East Tensions_1

Bitcoin Tops $108,000 as Crypto Traders Shrug off Mid-East Tensions_1

Over the past 12 months, these wallet movements had a –0.89 correlation to price, meaning the more they sold, the higher the price climbed. At the same time, large wallets, those holding at least 1,000 BTC now control 16.57 million BTC, after adding over 507,000 BTC in a year. These wallets are absorbing around 1,460 BTC per day and show a +0.86 correlation to price, which means their activity tracks upward movement.

That imbalance is sharp. Institutions are taking in nearly seven times the amount retail holders are letting go. Combine that with the fact that only 450 BTC are mined daily after the halving, and the pressure on supply becomes obvious. But what’s different this time is that small traders haven’t jumped back in.

There’s no retail FOMO yet, no frenzy like previous bull runs. Instead, individual holders are still exiting, hinting that the current rally might not even be close to peaking.

Binance, stablecoins, and key support levels show what comes next

Over on Binance, a big move happened on June 24. Net Taker Volume topped $100 million, something that hadn’t happened since June 9. It’s usually seen when overleveraged shorts get wiped or when retail traders pile in all at once. These bursts can fuel short-term buying, but they don’t guarantee lasting demand, and plus the activity also happened alongside $1.25 billion in stablecoin outflows from derivatives exchanges, the largest since mid-May.

Another number traders are watching closely is the Realized Price, also called the cost basis, of short-term holders (STH). These wallets, which hold for fewer than six months, represent over 40% of Bitcoin’s total market cap. That makes their entry points critical.

Right now, wallets in the 1 week to 1 month group are holding at $106,200, while those in the 1 to 3 month range sit at $95,000, and wallets from 3 to 6 months ago are at $93,300. When those values are weighted, the average cost basis lands at about $97,700.

That’s where things get fragile. Bitcoin’s current price is hovering near $100,000, a level that matters both emotionally and technically. If the price dips below $97k, a chain reaction of panic selling could hit the market, especially from STHs who are already nervous. It’s a narrow range, and a dangerous one.

Source: Cyrptopolitan

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Manuel

Economic

Political

President Donald Trump will control the so-called “golden share” that's part of the national security agreement under which he allowed Japan-based Nippon Steel to buy out iconic American steelmaker U.S. Steel, according to disclosures with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission.

The provision gives the president the power to appoint a board member and have a say in company decisions that affect domestic steel production and competition with overseas producers.

Under the provision, Trump — or someone he designates — controls that decision-making power while he is president. However, control over those powers reverts to the Treasury Department and the Commerce Department when anyone else is president, according to the filings.

The White House didn't immediately respond to questions Wednesday about why Trump will directly control the decision-making and why it goes to the Treasury and Commerce departments under future presidents.

Nippon Steel's nearly $15 billion buyout of Pittsburgh-based U.S. Steel became final last week, making U.S. Steel a wholly owned subsidiary.

Trump has sought to characterize the acquisition as a "partnership" between the two companies after he at first vowed to block the deal — as former President Joe Biden did on his way out of the White House — before changing his mind after he became president.

The national security agreement became effective June 13 and is between Nippon Steel, as well as its American subsidiary, and the federal government, represented by the departments of Commerce and Treasury, according to the disclosures.

The complete national security agreement hasn't been published publicly, although aspects of it have been outlined in statements and securities filings made by the companies, U.S. Steel said Wednesday.

The pursuit by Nippon Steel dragged on for a year and-a-half, weighed down by national security concerns, opposition by the United Steelworkers and presidential politics in the premier battleground state of Pennsylvania, where U.S. Steel is headquartered.

The combined company will become the world’s fourth-largest steelmaker in an industry dominated by Chinese companies, and bring what analysts say is Nippon Steel’s top-notch technology to U.S. Steel’s antiquated steelmaking processes, plus a commitment to invest $11 billion to upgrade U.S. Steel facilities.

The potential that the deal could be permanently blocked forced Nippon Steel to sweeten the deal.

That included upping its capital commitments in U.S. Steel facilities and adding the golden share provision, giving Trump the right to appoint an independent director and veto power on specific matters.

Those matters include reductions in Nippon Steel’s capital commitments in the national security agreement; changing U.S. Steel’s name and headquarters; closing or idling U.S. Steel’s plants; transferring production or jobs outside of the U.S.; buying competing businesses in the U.S.; and certain decisions on trade, labor and sourcing outside the U.S.

Source: AP

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Manuel

Cryptocurrency

Political

US Federal Housing Finance Agency (FHFA) Director Willian J. Pulte ordered on June 25 that Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac treat cryptocurrency reserves as eligible assets when they measure risk on single-family mortgage loans, effective immediately.

The two government-sponsored enterprises must draft plans that show how they will recognize borrower crypto holdings without first converting the coins to dollars.

Strict collateral rules and board oversight

Pulte’s signed directive instructs each enterprise to limit recognition to cryptocurrency that sits in wallets controlled by US-regulated centralized exchanges.

The order also requires the enterprises to add risk mitigants that account for market volatility and to keep reserve ratios that reflect the share of collateral held in digital assets.

Additionally, each enterprise must secure board approval before it submits the completed proposal to the FHFA conservator for review. The order is effective immediately.

Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac purchase and securitize the majority of conforming US residential mortgages. Their risk models determine the amount of capital they must hold against potential credit losses.

By allowing crypto reserves to enter those models, Pulte aims to widen the asset information available for underwriting and “facilitate sustainable homeownership to credit-worthy borrowers,” according to the text of the directive.

Risk-adjusted frameworks

The directive instructs each enterprise to develop an assessment that integrates crypto reserves into its existing loan risk framework. That assessment must describe how the enterprise will value cryptocurrency, apply haircuts, and adjust for daily price swings.

The directive also requires an analysis of how crypto reserves interact with other borrower assets and liabilities. After board approval, each enterprise must send the proposal to FHFA for sign-off before implementation.

By invoking the authority to issue binding instructions that alter underwriting or capital standards, Pulte accelerated a process that otherwise would have needed rulemaking or legislative action.

The order does not change conforming loan limits or documentation requirements but expands the categories of qualifying reserves.

Broader national crypto policy

Pulte announced the action on his social media account the same day, writing that he acted “in keeping with President Donald Trump’s vision to make the US the crypto capital of the world.”

He added: “Today is a historic day in the cryptocurrency industry.”

The directive follows months of internal study, according to Pulte’s remarks. The order does not specify which coins qualify. Still, the reference to US-regulated exchanges limits the pool to tokens listed on venues that follow federal know-your-customer and anti-money laundering rules.

Both enterprises must begin work on the proposals “as soon as reasonably practical,” the directive states. Pulte committed the agency to review each plan once the boards submit them but did not set a public deadline for submission.

The order remains in force unless FHFA rescinds or modifies it.

Source: Cryptoslate

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Manuel

Economic

Political

The White House is making its closing argument for President Trump’s "One Big Beautiful Bill Act,” and it involves some eye-popping projections for the US economy that don’t line up with predictions of independent economists.

How eye-popping? Try economic growth of 4.9% in the short term and up to $11.1 trillion in deficit reduction over the next decade if the Senate bill is passed and Trump’s agenda is enacted.

"Those are very big numbers," acknowledged Council of Economic Advisers Chair Stephen Miran on a call with reporters as he laid out a 27-page report.

The findings were immediately met with skepticism by economists who have come to very different conclusions.

The report nevertheless concludes that Trump’s entire “suite” of policies — from the bill itself to unilateral deregulation efforts to tariffs — could lead in Miran's words to “very material increases in GDP growth, very material increases in investment activity, and very material increases in real wages and take-home pay.”

The case is essentially that certain provisions in the bill — especially deductions for businesses around things like research and development — will lead to a spike in corporate investment that will then fuel 4.6% to 4.9% in additional GDP growth over the next four years.

It's an aggressive projection to say the least. For context, a recent Tax Foundation estimate pegged that figure at 1.1%.

But that outsized 4%+ growth will then fuel, the White House says, a reduction in federal deficits by roughly $8.5-$11.1 trillion over the standard 10-year budget window. That would lead to thousands of dollars in additional income for a typical family and stabilize America’s debt-to-GDP ratio, according to the report.

The rosy predictions from the White House were immediately slammed by a range of economists.

“Well I guess if you are going to make stuff up, go big or go home,” offered former Democratic Congresswoman Carolyn Bourdeaux.

“No credible economist believes this bill is going to reduce the deficit,” she added, noting that “it adds $3+ trillion.” Bourdeaux currently runs the Concord Coalition, a group focused on the national debt.

A range of independent projections — from the Congressional Budget Office to the Tax Foundation to the Penn-Wharton Budget Model — have looked at different versions of the bill and reached a similar conclusion of much lower economic growth and a price tag in the neighborhood of $3 trillion over the next decade.

The back and forth comes after the House passed a first version of the bill last month that was then followed by amendments in the Senate. Majority Leader John Thune hopes to finalize those amendments and put the entire package up for a series of votes starting Friday.

The deliberations are also being closely watched by Wall Street with the mega-bill also responsible for raising a debt ceiling that is ticking towards a government default as early as Aug. 15, the Bipartisan Policy Center projected in a new report also released Wednesday.

A frantic final series of negotiations and cost projections

The problem for Thune and other Republicans is that a series of fights over different pieces of the bill remain unresolved, with GOP leaders facing a daunting to-do list in the days ahead before another round of voting can begin.

In addition to lawmaker objections over issues like state and local tax (SALT) deductions and Medicaid cuts, recent Senate changes already appear likely to increase the price tag further and have further inflamed the concerns of fiscal hawks. The White House Makes its Closing Argument for Trump´s Big Beautiful Bill: ´Very big' Economic Benefits_1

The White House Makes its Closing Argument for Trump´s Big Beautiful Bill: ´Very big' Economic Benefits_1

A look at the tax provisions of the bill in recent days from the Joint Committee on Taxation offered a new price tag that tops $4 trillion.

Wednesday’s White House report offered a breakdown of how officials say the top figure of $11.1 trillion is achievable, suggesting that roughly $2.1-2.2 trillion in deficit declines come from the bill itself.

Other cost savings will come from additional reductions in discretionary spending (about $1.8 trillion) and more tariff revenue (another $3.2 trillion).

The tariff revenue figure is an increase from a recent Congressional Budget Office calculation of $2.8 trillion in revenues, but only if tariffs stay at current levels for the next decade.

The final piece of the report focused on deregulatory and energy policies. The White House concluded those steps could reduce the deficit somewhere between an additional $1.3 and $3.7 trillion over the coming decade.

The new numbers further reinforced a divide between between economists and the White House.

After the House bill was released, there was an $11 trillion chasm between what economists said the bill’s effects would be and what the White House said Trump’s agenda will bring.

The divide is now now even wider, with $15 trillion separating projections released in recent days from each side.

The bill is "far from deficit neutral" added Heather Boushey, a former member of Joe Biden's Council of Economic Advisors on Wednesday afternoon. "There are a lot of shenanigans in how they are calculating their numbers."