Israel Blocks Main Road to Gaza City, Gives Residents Last Chance to Leave

Political

Middle East Situation

Summary:

Israeli forces block road for those returning to Gaza City; Defence Minister Katz: 'last opportunity' for those wishing to leave; Israeli fire kills 77 people in the enclave in the past 24 hours, medics say; Hospitals scale back services.

Israeli tanks blocked the main road to Gaza City on Thursday, preventing those who have left the besieged city from returning, and Defence Minister Israel Katz said it was now the last chance for hundreds of thousands of people still inside to escape.

Israel has told the entire million-strong population of Gaza City to head south as it mounts one of the biggest offensives of the war this month, vowing to root out Hamas fighters in what it says are their last bastions in Gaza's biggest urban area.

Residents told Reuters that tanks had set up sand barriers on the main road south out of Gaza City. People were being allowed out, but those who had left in search of food or temporary shelter were no longer being permitted to return.

"This is the last opportunity for Gaza residents who wish to do so to move south and leave Hamas operatives isolated in Gaza City itself in the face of the IDF’s continuing full-scale operations," Israeli Defense Minister Katz said in a statement.

Those leaving would be subjected to vetting by the military, Katz said.

The military said in a statement on Wednesday it had begun an operation to strengthen and maintain "operational control of the Netzarim Corridor", an area it controls dividing northern and southern Gaza. It did not respond to a request for further comment on Thursday.

'WE ARE NOT LEAVING'

The United Nations estimates that 600,000-700,000 people are still inside Gaza City, after up to 400,000 fled in the past few weeks as Israeli forces have advanced, destroying buildings in their path.

Some residents reached by Reuters said the move to prevent people from returning to Gaza City had increased their determination to stay.

"We are not leaving. Yesterday a drone dropped grenades on the rooftop of our building, but we are not leaving," said Hani, 24, who lives in Gaza City, who asked to be identified only by his first name because of security concerns.

"We are afraid if we leave, we will never see our Gaza City again."

Israeli planes and tanks continued to pound Gaza City. Gaza's healthy ministry said Israeli fire killed at least 77 people in the past 24 hours.

Medics said one of those strikes on Thursday killed nine people, including five from one family, near a community kitchen in Al-Mawasi, a southern coastal area which Israel has designated a "humanitarian zone" for hundreds of thousands of residents forced to flee from other parts of Gaza.

GROUND OFFENSIVE DAMAGES HEALTH FACILITIES

Gaza's health ministry said Israel's intensifying ground assault was crippling the ability to treat the sick and wounded, after four medical facilities were forced to shutter.

Doctors at Gaza City's main hospital, Al Shifa, said they had been forced to scale back services because of constant Israeli bombardment around the facility, as vulnerable patients worried that the hospital would soon have to shut.

"If this department is closed, it will mean the death of the patients. Our lives would end. This department represents life for us," Medhat Elewah, a kidney patient, said in a video filmed inside the hospital, obtained by Reuters.

He said he used to receive four hours of dialysis sessions three times a week, but this had been cut back to two hours.

Israel began its Gaza offensive after the October 7, 2023, Hamas-led attack on Israel in which some 1,200 people were killed and 251 taken as hostages back to Gaza, according to Israeli tallies.

Israel's two-year-long campaign has killed over 66,000 people in Gaza, according to Gaza health authorities.

Source: Reuters

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Gerik

Economic

AI Drives Unprecedented Gains in Chip Sector

Global semiconductor companies have collectively added over $200 billion in market capitalization during a recent session, reflecting investors’ intense appetite for AI exposure. The rally has been fueled by several developments: OpenAI’s record $500 billion valuation from an employee share sale, strategic agreements with South Korean chipmakers, and reports that Intel is in discussions to bring Advanced Micro Devices (AMD) into its foundry business.

Korean chipmakers led the gains, with SK Hynix rising 10% and Samsung Electronics up 3.5%, propelling the Kospi Index to an all-time high. In Europe, chip equipment manufacturer ASML Holding surged nearly 5%, while peers ASM International and BE Semiconductor Industries also advanced, lifting valuations across the sector.

Momentum, FOMO, and Market Psychology

Analysts attribute the rally to a fear of missing out (FOMO), with investors largely overlooking potential bubble risks in the AI sector. Hebe Chen of Vantage Markets commented that “tech momentum shows no sign of fading…with every AI headline sparking bursts of euphoria.” While the rally has caused forward price-to-earnings multiples to approach record highs—19x for Asia chip stocks and 27x for the SOX Index—investors continue to anticipate further gains ahead of fourth-quarter earnings releases.

Investor Scramble and Global Expansion

The surge reflects a broad scramble for AI-related technology exposure. Major infrastructure players like Nvidia and SK Hynix have seen strong capital inflows, while AI startups including OpenAI and Anthropic attract private investment. OpenAI’s Sam Altman plans to meet with Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co. and Hon Hai Precision Industry, prompting gains in their shares.

Chinese tech firms are also benefiting from heightened investor enthusiasm and government support. Alibaba’s expansion in AI spending and Huawei’s public roadmap to challenge Nvidia have pushed the Hang Seng Tech Index up approximately 50% year-to-date.

Risks and Valuation Concerns

Despite the bullish sentiment, some observers caution that AI services have not yet fully matured into mainstream revenue generators, raising questions about the sustainability of current valuations. Any shortfall in earnings from major tech firms could trigger a selloff, as demonstrated during the sector-wide decline in April. Nonetheless, many market participants remain confident in continued upside for technology stocks, especially in Asia.

Peter Kim, managing director at KB Securities, noted, “Tech stocks continue to defy gravity…possibly extending into next year,” reflecting widespread optimism among investors about AI’s long-term growth potential.

The global semiconductor market is experiencing an extraordinary rally, driven by AI enthusiasm and strategic partnerships. While valuations have reached historically high levels, investor optimism continues to fuel demand, reinforcing the belief that AI will remain a key driver of technology investment well into 2026.

Source: Bloomberg

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Adam

Commodity

Oil Slides Below Key Technical Support as OPEC+ Output Fears Mount

Light crude oil futures continued their decline Thursday, breaking below multiple technical support levels and extending a four-day losing streak. A bearish technical structure and concerns over rising global supply are pressuring prices lower, with traders watching for a possible test of deeper support zones.

At 10:24 GMT, Light crude oil futures are trading $61.49, down $0.29 or -0.47%.

OPEC+ Output Speculation Fuels Bearish Sentiment

Oil markets are under pressure as traders digest reports that OPEC+ may significantly boost output in November. According to sources familiar with the talks, the group could raise production by up to 500,000 barrels per day—triple the increase scheduled for October. Saudi Arabia is reportedly pushing for the increase in a bid to regain lost market share, adding weight to fears of oversupply.

Strategists warn that expectations of a supply surplus are already seeping into market sentiment. Jorge Montepeque of Onyx Capital noted that some banks, including Macquarie, are forecasting a potential “super glut” in crude markets, further discouraging bullish positions.

Technical Breakdown Points to More Downside

Daily Light Crude Oil Futures

From a technical perspective, WTI crude is trading below the 200-day moving average ($63.06), the 50-day moving average ($63.56), and a long-term pivot at $64.21. This alignment underscores the bearish tone in the market. Prices have already broken below key swing bottoms at $61.61 and $61.34, exposing the September 5 low at $61.10 and the August 13 bottom at $60.77.

A confirmed break under $60.77 could trigger an acceleration toward the late May bottom at $55.74. That level would likely act as a major downside target for traders managing risk or building short-side exposure.

Geopolitical Tensions Offer Limited Support

While geopolitical risks are rising, they have yet to materially impact supply. The U.S. is now supporting Ukraine with intelligence for long-range missile strikes on Russian energy infrastructure, according to U.S. officials. This could eventually lead to disruptions in Russian crude flows, but analysts like UBS’s Giovanni Staunovo caution that absent real-time supply impacts, price support will be limited.

The Group of Seven’s latest vow to tighten restrictions on Russian oil purchases adds to the geopolitical backdrop, but traders remain focused on near-term fundamentals—namely, supply-demand balances and inventories.

U.S. Inventory Builds Reinforce Oversupply Narrative

U.S. Energy Information Administration data (EIA) showed crude inventories rose by 1.8 million barrels to 416.5 million barrels last week—well above consensus expectations. Gasoline and distillate stocks also rose, highlighting weaker refinery activity and softening demand.

Oil Prices Forecast: Bearish Bias Dominates as Support Breaks

The combination of rising inventories, OPEC+ supply risk, and technical weakness points to a bearish near-term outlook for crude oil. Unless geopolitical tensions translate into real supply disruptions, traders should expect further downside toward $60.77, and potentially $55.74 if that support fails to hold.

Source: fxempire

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Gerik

Economic

AI-Powered Fraud Prevention for the Digital Euro

The European Central Bank (ECB) announced it has awarded a contract to Portuguese startup Feedzai to develop artificial intelligence systems aimed at detecting and preventing fraud in the digital euro. The agreement, valued at up to €237.3 million ($278.7 million), includes a four-year framework for scoring digital euro payments based on deviations from typical customer behavior, interactions, and transaction history.

Feedzai and its subcontractor PwC will provide this AI-based risk assessment to help payment service providers approve or flag transactions between electronic wallets backed by the central bank.

Significance for Eurozone Financial Autonomy

This initiative is part of the ECB’s broader effort to reduce reliance on U.S.-based payment networks such as Visa and Mastercard, while responding to increasing interest in digital stablecoins. By leveraging AI for real-time fraud detection, the ECB aims to bolster the security and integrity of its upcoming digital currency, ensuring that it functions as a reliable alternative within the eurozone’s financial ecosystem.

The agreement with Feedzai has an initial estimated value of €79.1 million, with a maximum cap of €237.3 million, contingent on project milestones. In addition to Feedzai, the ECB awarded four other contracts, ranging from €27.6 million to €220.7 million, to companies including French IT consulting firm Capgemini. ECB board member Piero Cipollone noted that payments under these framework agreements will only begin once the project officially starts.

Timeline and Regulatory Outlook

Legislative approval for the digital euro is still pending, with the ECB aiming to secure authorization around mid-2026. The central bank plans to launch the digital euro by 2029, positioning it as a strategic tool for modernizing payments and strengthening European financial sovereignty.

Founded in Coimbra, Portugal, Feedzai processes approximately $8 trillion in payments annually for clients worldwide, including Novobanco in Portugal and Wio Bank in Abu Dhabi. Its expertise in AI-driven fraud detection positions it as a key partner in ensuring the security of the digital euro from the outset.

The ECB’s collaboration with Feedzai represents a significant step in preparing the digital euro for secure, resilient operation. By integrating AI-powered fraud detection early in the project, the central bank aims to protect consumers, reinforce financial stability, and enhance the eurozone’s independence in the global payments landscape.

Source: Reuters

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Adam

Stocks

U.S. stock index futures steadied Thursday near record levels, with investors largely shrugging off an ongoing U.S. government shutdown amid raised hopes of more Federal Reserve interest rate cuts this year.

At 05:45 ET (09:45 GMT), the Dow Jones Futures traded largely flat, while S&P 500 Futures gained 12 points, or 0.2%, and Nasdaq 100 Futures rose 85 points, or 0.4%.

All three benchmarks rose for a fourth consecutive session on Wednesday, with the broad-based S&P 500 closing at a record high, with investors appearing to be little deterred by the shutdown.

U.S. government shutdown begins

U.S. government agencies began shutting down from early-Wednesday after Congress failed to approve fresh funding.

Services ranging from air traffic control to disaster relief are expected to be disrupted, while key nonfarm payrolls data due on Friday is also expected to be delayed.

It remained unclear just how long the shutdown will last, given that Democrats and Republicans in the Senate appeared no closer to reaching consensus on a spending bill.

President Donald Trump added to the divide by threatening to cut off funding for Democrat-leaning states and fire scores of federal workers permanently.

Shutdowns have historically had limited impact on financial markets and the economy. The last shutdown occurred during Trump’s first term– for a span of 35 days between late-2018 and early-2019– and was the longest in U.S. history.

The shutdown cost the economy about $11 billion, the Congressional Budget Office estimated.

The betting website Polymarket indicates the highest likelihood that the standoff will last between one or two weeks, though there is currently a 34% probability of a longer shutdown, with just over $1.2 million wagered.

Labor market weakness drives rates cut talk

One key consequence of the continuing U.S. government shutdown has been the potential delay to the release of key economic indicators, including the monthly nonfarm payrolls report slated for Friday.

That means that other private figures, such as Thursday’s Challenger layoffs data, may receive more attention than usual.

Earlier this week, the ADP National Employment Report showed the largest decline in private payrolls in two-and-a-half years during September. One of the last officials readings -- A gauge of job openings -- increased marginally in August while hiring declined.

The Fed has been keeping close tabs on labor market numbers as officials assess the outlook for monetary policy. Borrowing costs were reduced by 25 basis points last month, with policymakers highlighting the need to prioritize supporting a flagging jobs picture over sticky inflationary pressures.

The weak economic prints have driven persistent bets that the Federal Reserve will continue to cut interest rates in the two remaining policy meetings left this year.

Pharma in focus

In the corporate sector, the major pharmaceutical companies are likely to remain in the spotlight Thursday, with a rally in the segment starting earlier in the week when U.S. pharmaceutical giant Pfizer (NYSE:PFE) saying it had reached a deal with President Donald Trump to lower prescription drug prices in the Medicaid program in return for tariff relief.

Trump indicated that he expects more drugmakers will do the same.

Elsewhere, OpenAI was valued at $500 billion after a secondary share sale worth about $6.6 billion, according to various news reports citing sources familiar with the matter.

The deal makes the ChatGPT-maker the world’s most valuable startup, surpassing Elon Musk’s rocket firm SpaceX, which was recently valued at about $400 billion.

Crude continues to fall

Oil prices slipped lower Thursday, adding to recent losses and overturning earlier gains following the raised potential for tighter sanctions on Russian crude.

Brent futures slipped 0.5% to $65.01 a barrel, and U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude futures fell 0.5% to $61.46 a barrel.

Both benchmarks lost about 1% in the prior session, with Brent closing at its lowest since June 5 and for WTI since May 30.

The Group of Seven nations’ finance ministers said on Wednesday they will take steps to increase pressure on Russia by targeting those who are continuing to increase their purchases of Russian oil and those that are facilitating circumvention.

However, the U.S. government shutdown has heightened worries about the global economy, while expectations of higher output by OPEC+, the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and allied producers, weighed on sentiment.

Source: investing

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Gerik

Economic

Data Disruptions and Economic Blind Spots

The shutdown of the U.S. federal government has effectively frozen critical reporting from agencies such as the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS). Monthly jobs reports and upcoming inflation data will be delayed until federal funding resumes, leaving investors, policymakers, and business leaders without essential economic indicators. This absence of reliable data comes at a time when the economy is navigating the consequences of fluctuating tariffs, ad hoc bailouts, and political interventions, increasing uncertainty for private-sector decision-making.

“The shutdown adds to the significant policy uncertainty and volatility that we’ve seen this year from tariffs, court cases, government staff reductions, and threats to the independence of statistical agencies and the Fed,” said Brett House, a Columbia Business School professor. Such uncertainty could reduce hiring and investment, dampening economic growth.

Leadership Turmoil at the BLS

The Bureau of Labor Statistics has faced prolonged challenges, including chronic understaffing and underfunding. Recently, President Trump fired BLS head Erika McEntarfer over unfounded claims that she manipulated data. Trump’s initial nominee to replace her, Heritage Foundation economist EJ Antoni, was withdrawn amid scrutiny over his lack of experience, controversial past statements, and political affiliations. This leadership turmoil has further undermined confidence in the reliability of federal economic reporting.

Even with a new nominee, the damage to perceptions of agency independence has been done, amplifying uncertainty in a fragile economic environment. Economists note that market and policy responses depend on credible and timely data, which is now disrupted.

Macroeconomic Risks and Stagflation Concerns

Inflation is edging higher while hiring slows, creating early signals of stagflation. With critical economic data delayed and the Federal Reserve potentially blind to emerging trends, officials may struggle to implement timely policy measures to stabilize the economy. Mohammad Elahee, a professor at Quinnipiac University, described the shutdown as a “systemic shock” that could push the U.S. economy toward recession in 2026 if uncertainty persists.

Tariffs remain a central factor affecting economic performance, particularly for small and medium-size enterprises that cannot absorb additional costs as easily as large corporations. The combination of policy uncertainty, delayed data, and economic pressure on smaller businesses creates a fragile environment with the potential for broader macroeconomic consequences.

The government shutdown has exacerbated existing vulnerabilities in the U.S. economy, limiting access to critical labor and inflation data while undermining confidence in statistical agencies. Coupled with ongoing tariff pressures and political disruptions, the economic uncertainty could have tangible effects on hiring, investment, and growth, heightening the risk of recessionary conditions in 2026. Policymakers and market participants are now navigating a landscape marked by both operational paralysis and structural economic fragility.

Source: CNN

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Glendon

Cryptocurrency

Bitcoin has once again proven its role as a financial hedge. As talks of a potential US government shutdown dominate headlines, investors have turned to $BTC as a store of value — pushing its price to a remarkable $119,000, a 3.8% increase in just 24 hours. Ethereum also saw a strong rally, jumping 6.5% to reach $4,404.

The broader crypto market responded positively, adding over $160 billion to its total market capitalization, which now stands at $4.32 trillion. This sharp increase indicates a renewed wave of investor confidence and interest in digital assets during uncertain macroeconomic conditions.

Bitcoin Becomes the Go-To Hedge in Uncertain Times

Traditionally, investors turn to gold or the US dollar during times of economic distress. However, the narrative is shifting. With increasing distrust in traditional systems and the looming threat of a US government shutdown, Bitcoin is now being viewed as a reliable hedge.

The Fear & Greed Index (FGI), a measure of market sentiment, has climbed to 64, signaling “Greed” — a sign that investors are optimistic and willing to take on risk. The spike in liquidations, totaling $601 million, also reflects increased trading activity and volatility across the board.

The crypto market surged with investors using $BTC to hedge against a US government shutdown. Bitcoin reached $119K, boosting the total crypto market cap by over $160B.$BTC: $118,708 +3.8%$ETH: $4,404 +6.5%FGI: 64 → Greed

Market Cap: $4.32T

Liquidations: $601M

What’s Next for the Crypto Market?

While this momentum is promising, analysts caution that such sharp movements can lead to corrections. Still, the current trend suggests Bitcoin and Ethereum are gaining mainstream attention as macroeconomic tools — not just speculative assets.

As long as uncertainty around the US government’s fiscal policies continues, crypto markets could remain strong, with Bitcoin leading as a digital safe haven.