India’s Economy Likely Grew 7.3% In July–September Quarter- Reuters Poll

Forex

Economic

Summary:

India's economy likely grew 7.3% in the July–September quarter, according to a Reuters poll of economists, underpinned by strong rural and government expenditure even as private capital spending remained subdued.

Household consumption, which accounts for roughly 60% of the economy, strengthened in the previous quarter as rural spending improved on better agricultural output. Urban demand and private investment continued to lag, suggesting uneven growth in Asia's third-largest economy.

Government spending, a key driver of growth in recent years, also likely persisted in Q2 of this fiscal year.

India remains one of the world's fastest-growing major economies in the face of U.S. President Donald Trump raising tariffs on Indian goods to 50% in August, a move that has contributed to foreign investors pulling out a net $16 billion from Indian equities so far this year.

Most economists say the deflator, used to strip out the effect of inflation to show "real" economic growth, was likely very low, making Asia's third-largest economy seem a bit stronger than it really is.

Indian gross domestic product (GDP) expanded 7.3% year-on-year in the July–September period, down from a better-than-expected 7.8% in the previous quarter, according to the median forecast from a Reuters poll of 61 economists conducted November 18–24. Estimates ranged from 6.0% to 8.5%.

"As far as the drivers of growth are concerned, private consumption and central government capex expenditure will remain the key supports for growth now, while private sector capex investment will likely grow at a slower pace due to the persisting global uncertainty," Kaushik Das, India chief economist at Deutsche Bank, said.

The data are due Friday, November 28 at 1030 GMT.

Economists are more cautious on the medium-term outlook, predicting GDP growth to slow to 6.8% this quarter and 6.3% in the quarter ending in March 2026.

STATISTICAL BOOST

A low deflator - which falls when inflation cools - also provided a boost to the latest data, as it did in the previous quarter, several economists said.

"GDP will benefit from a lower base and an exceptionally low deflator, which will artificially prop up real GDP growth ... But nominal GDP growth will likely continue to be weak," Deutsche Bank's Das said.

Wholesale price inflation was negligible and consumer inflation was on average around 2% between July–September.

Inflation has since fallen to less than half a percent.

"Inflation projections now for the rest of the year also remain soft," Rajni Thakur, chief economist at L&T Finance, said. "We really don't see this deflator support - which is statistically impacting real GDP numbers - going away till the end of this fiscal year."

Economic activity as measured by gross value added (GVA) was estimated to have expanded 7.15%. Nominal GDP growth, which is not adjusted for price changes, likely slowed to 8.3% last quarter from 8.8% previously, the poll predicted. Those are based on a smaller sample of forecasters.

Meanwhile, recent cuts to the consumption tax, part of a major overhaul of the national goods and services tax (GST) system and implemented from September 22, are expected to give some support to demand in the coming quarters.

"Unfortunately, GST cuts have come at a time when Indian households are already heavily indebted. That takes away part of the disposable income they could otherwise have saved from the tax reductions," said Dhiraj Nim, economist at ANZ.

Source: Investing

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Economic

Musk’s Involvement at the Center of Constitutional Dispute

Elon Musk, former senior adviser to President Trump and CEO of Tesla and SpaceX, is now at the center of a heated constitutional battle. A group of current and former USAID employees has filed a lawsuit accusing Musk of unlawfully exercising power reserved for Senate-confirmed officials by directing the controversial dismantling of the U.S. Agency for International Development (USAID) under the Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE) initiative. The plaintiffs argue that Musk’s actions violated the U.S. Constitution’s separation of powers by intervening in an agency created by Congress.

This case raises questions about the causal connection between Musk’s advisory role and the structural collapse of USAID. Plaintiffs cite social media posts where Musk appeared to take credit for the agency’s shutdown, including a February post stating, “We spent the weekend feeding USAID into the wood chipper.” This explicit claim of involvement challenges the government’s stance that Musk merely offered non-binding advice and held no formal authority.

Justice Department Pushes Back on Deposition Demands

In response to efforts to depose Musk and two former USAID officials, Peter Marocco and Jeremy Lewin, the Department of Justice filed a motion seeking to block those depositions. The government contends that plaintiffs must first exhaust all less intrusive methods of evidence gathering, including written requests or alternative witnesses. Citing precedent on executive privilege, DOJ argues that forcing high-level executive officials to testify would intrude upon White House operations and potentially compromise the president’s constitutional functions.

This legal reasoning hinges on a causal limitation inherent in the executive branch’s structure: compelling deposition could weaken the separation of powers by subjecting confidential internal decision-making to judicial oversight. The DOJ thus positions Musk’s deposition as both unnecessary and constitutionally risky, even while acknowledging he acted as a visible figurehead of the DOGE initiative.

Federal Court Already Greenlighted the Case

The legal stakes escalated in August when a Maryland federal judge allowed the lawsuit to proceed, rejecting an earlier attempt by the government to dismiss the case entirely. The ruling acknowledged sufficient evidence of Musk's potentially unconstitutional overreach to justify further discovery. Since then, plaintiffs and their legal team, led by the Democracy Defenders Fund, have been aggressively pursuing testimony and documentation to support their case.

Notably, this litigation follows a broader pattern of legal resistance from the Trump administration. Earlier this year, the U.S. Supreme Court intervened to block testimony from DOGE Administrator Amy Gleason in a separate public records dispute, suggesting a broader strategy to shield DOGE-related activities from judicial scrutiny.

Broader Implications for Executive Authority and Outsider Influence

This case taps into deeper debates about the boundaries of executive power and the risks of allowing non-elected, unconfirmed individuals especially private-sector figures to wield influence over government policy. Musk’s prominent role in government downsizing, while unofficial, reflects a blurred line between advisory input and administrative action.

As the case of Does v. Musk proceeds, the U.S. legal system faces a pivotal test of how far executive privilege extends and whether individuals like Musk, who serve in unofficial but impactful capacities, can be held accountable for constitutional breaches. The upcoming deadlines and motions in Maryland will help clarify not only the facts surrounding USAID’s controversial closure but also the legal thresholds for compelling testimony from those who move between the private and public spheres with exceptional influence.

Source: Bloomberg

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Daily News

[Quick Facts]

1. Fed Governor Waller advocates a rate cut next month, then decides meeting by meeting.

2. U.S. Q3 GDP preliminary estimate canceled, September PCE data rescheduled.

3. U.S. and Ukraine seek to narrow differences on Peace Talks; Trump hints at progress in negotiations.

4. Japan's New Economic Stimulus Plan seems "comprehensive", but its actual fiscal strength is weaker than in previous rounds.

5. RBA may resume rate hikes in 2026; slower potential growth is a key factor.

6. Trump launches "Genesis" mission to integrate Federal resources and accelerate AI research breakthroughs.

7. Daly: Labor market faces risk of non-linear deterioration, supports December rate cut.

8. Fed Chair selection enters a crucial stage; Waller becomes the leading candidate.

[News Details]

Fed Governor Waller advocates a rate cut next month, then decides meeting by meeting

Federal Reserve Governor Christopher Waller said in a speech ON Monday that, with regard to our dual mandate, his main concern is the labor market. "January will be tricky with a flood of data coming to indicate whether another cut is appropriate, need a meeting by meeting approach." He explained. If inflation or employment suddenly rebounds, or if the economy takes off, that would raise concerns. He still believes the labor market will not improve over the next six to eight weeks.

Futures markets show investors currently assign about a 70% probability to a Fed rate cut in December. Following cuts in September and October, Fed officials appear seriously divided on whether another cut is appropriate.

U.S. Q3 GDP preliminary estimate canceled, September PCE data rescheduled

According to the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) under the U.S. Department of Commerce, the preliminary estimate of Q3 2024 GDP (covering July–September), originally scheduled for release on October 30th, has been canceled due to the impact of the government shutdown on data publication schedules.

The BEA said the second estimate for the quarter, originally planned for this past Wednesday, is likely to be delayed. The bureau typically releases three successive quarterly GDP estimates, which constitute the most comprehensive official measure of the scale of economic activity.

The September PCE and personal income report will now be released on December 5th at 10:00 a.m. Eastern Time, instead of the original October 31st date.

U.S. and Ukraine seek to narrow differences on Peace Talks; Trump hints at progress in negotiations

U.S. and Ukrainian officials are attempting to narrow differences over plans to end the war in Ukraine, after agreeing to revise an American proposal that Kyiv and its European allies regarded as reflecting the Kremlin’s wish list. In a joint statement, Washington and Kyiv said they drafted a revised peace framework following Sunday’s Geneva talks. While no details were disclosed, the dialogue received a cautious welcome from some Ukrainian allies.

The U.S.–Ukraine Geneva talks aimed at ending the Russia–Ukraine war have concluded, with officials from both sides stating that progress was made and expressing willingness to continue efforts. However, no specifics have been released on how to bridge Moscow and Kyiv's vast gaps on territorial issues and Ukraine's security guarantees.

President Zelenskyy welcomed the significant progress achieved. However, he warned that the main obstacle in peace talks is Russian President Putin's demand for Ukraine to recognize the eastern territories occupied by Moscow, which would violate principles of territorial integrity and sovereignty. He also stressed that Russia may be rewarded for land seized by force.

No Russian representatives attended the Geneva talks. The Kremlin said it has received no information on the outcome; spokesman Peskov noted that Moscow is aware the plan has been adjusted and that Putin welcomes this.

Japan's New Economic Stimulus Plan seems "comprehensive", but its actual fiscal strength is weaker than in previous rounds

Moody's Analytics economist Stefan Angrick pointed out that Japanese Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi's first major policy package seems a comprehensive fiscal stimulus, but the actual details reveal a more cautious approach compared with the previous two rounds.

Although the total package amounts to JP¥42.8 trillion (approximately 6.7% of GDP), the figure includes guarantees, loans, and estimates of private-sector spending. Excluding these items, core spending and tax cuts total just JP¥21.3 trillion.

Angrick emphasized that the key measure of fiscal stimulus strength is not the absolute amount but its proportion relative to the size of the economy. On that basis, the Takaichi plan accounts for only 3.3% of GDP, slightly lower than the 3.4% and 3.5% shares of the 2023 and 2024 packages, respectively. This relative contraction occurs against the backdrop of Japan's general government deficit falling from 10% of GDP to nearly zero, reflecting the new government's balance between fiscal expansion and real constraints.

RBA may resume rate hikes in 2026; slower potential growth is a key factor

Commonwealth Bank of Australia Chief Economist Luke Yeaman said in a research note Tuesday that if price pressures remain elevated and the labor market tightens further, the RBA could turn to rate hikes in 2026.

Yeaman, a former deputy secretary of the Treasury, analyzed that Australia's economy will continue operating near full capacity, meaning the board must remain vigilant and rate cuts will not be on the agenda in the short term. He specifically warned that if economic momentum exceeds expectations, a rate hike scenario could arise in 2026.

Yeaman noted that although the likelihood of restarting hikes remains low, weak productivity has dragged down Australia's potential growth rate. This structural change implies that when activity recovers, inflation could pick up more rapidly, requiring borrowing costs to remain higher than in past cycles. As one of the few economists who believe the RBA easing cycle has ended, Yeaman provides a policy outlook diverging from mainstream expectations, highlighting Australia's structural challenges.

Trump launches "Genesis" mission to integrate Federal resources and accelerate AI research breakthroughs

U.S. President Donald Trump signed an executive order Monday formally launching the “Genesis Mission” artificial intelligence development initiative, aimed at accelerating scientific research by extensively integrating federal research resources. The plan requires government research agencies, such as the Department of Energy, to fully deploy AI technologies. Michael Krastios, science adviser to the president, told reporters on a conference call that the Genesis mission is "the largest marshaling of federal scientific resources since the Apollo program."

Under the order, agencies must optimize datasets for compatibility with neural networks and other AI tools, while opening government‑held research data and federal computing infrastructure to university researchers, private enterprises, and national security sectors. Energy Secretary Wright said AI will be used to deeply analyze the massive datasets held by DOE's 17 national laboratories, pledging this will significantly speed up scientific discovery and innovation. The White House expects breakthroughs in pharmaceutical R&D, energy production, and engineering.

Daly: Labor market faces risk of non-linear deterioration, supports December rate cut

During a speech on Monday, San Francisco Fed president Mary Daly said she supports cutting rates at the December meeting due to rising risks of a sudden labor-market deterioration. The Fed lacks confidence that it can stay ahead of the labor market curve. She warns the job market is "vulnerable" and could have a nonlinear downturn, which she sees as harder to manage than an inflation flare-up. Tariff-related inflation pressures have been more muted than expected, reducing the risk of an inflation breakout.

She still believes the Fed can return inflation to 2% without higher unemployment—and that failing to do so would be a policy failure. Although she does not have a vote this year, Daly rarely took a public stance differing from Chair Powell and is expected to play a key role in resolving internal policy divisions at the December FOMC meeting.

Fed Chair selection enters a crucial stage; Waller becomes the leading candidate

Incumbent Fed Chair Jerome Powell's term ends in May next year. The Trump administration has narrowed the successor list to five individuals, including Waller, White House Council of Economic Advisers Chair Kevin Hassett, and former Fed Governor Kevin Warsh. Waller revealed he met with Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent ten days ago for in-depth discussions on matters related to the Fed chair position, describing the meeting as smooth. He also expressed confidence that he meets the government's requirements for the abilities and experience needed for the job, suggesting the next round of interviews for Fed chair is underway.

[Today's Focus]

UTC+8 16:00 ECB Governing Council Member Villeroy speaks

UTC+8 17:00 ECB Governing Council Member & Governor of the Central Bank of Ireland Makhlouf speaks

UTC+8 22:00 ECB Executive Board Member Cipollone speaks

UTC+8 21:30 U.S. September retail sales MoM

UTC+8 21:30 U.S. September PPI

UTC+8 22:00 U.S. September FHFA house price index MoM

UTC+8 23:00 U.S. October existing home sales index MoM

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Justin

Forex

Stocks

High-frequency trading firms have posted strong profit growth in India despite regulatory curbs, showcasing their agility in tapping opportunities across the country's $5.4 trillion equity market.

Hudson River Trading LLC led the charge with a 156% surge in profit for the fiscal year that ended on March 31, according to filings. Optiver Holding BV and homegrown firms AlphaGrep Securities Pvt and Graviton Research Capital LLP also reported robust growth for the year.

The performance highlights India's growing appeal for market makers even as the Securities and Exchange Board of India tightens rules to temper retail speculation in derivatives. At the same time, regulators have taken steps to strengthen cash markets, expand ETFs, and deepen commodity derivatives.

The fiscal year for these firms ended about five months after SEBI started imposing curbs on derivatives trading by limiting the number of weekly contracts to one index per exchange, charging upfront for options premiums, and increasing the contract size. The regulator also imposed a temporary ban on Jane Street Group in July, accusing it of manipulative transactions involving options and shares — allegations that the firm has denied.

Jane Street and Citadel Securities LLC have yet to report their figures.

Even with the curbs, futures and options trading "has been the largest segment for HFT firms given the large volumes," said Sanchit Suneja, chief strategy officer at India's Motilal Oswal Financial Services Ltd. He added that algorithmic trading accounts for more than 50% of the total trading volume in the equity derivatives segment by value on the National Stock Exchange.

Hudson River reported a profit of about 22 billion rupees ($246 million), while its revenue from operations jumped 155% to 31.4 billion rupees, according to a filing to the Ministry of Corporate Affairs.

Graviton, a significant player in cash equities, reported a 17% rise in profit to nearly 12 billion rupees. AlphaGrep saw its profit jump 77% to 4.74 billion rupees. Dutch firm Optiver reported a $44 million profit in its first full year in India, reversing losses in the first six months. The figures may not solely reflect income generated within India for the firms.

Algorithmic traders are also profiting from market making on exchange traded funds, and cash-to-futures arbitrage, Suneja said. Proprietary traders accounted for about 50% of the options turnover in the latest fiscal year, about 30% of cash equity trading and roughly 35% of futures, he said.

Meanwhile, HFT firms are also adapting and looking into multi-frequency strategies. Companies are also diversifying into other segments, while smaller retail investors are moving away from derivatives.

"There is a churn in users," Ishan Bansal, the chief financial officer of digital broker Groww, said on an earnings call on Friday.

The firm said a 10% to 20% growth in average order value per user in the derivatives segment over the last few quarters, Bansal added. That's because smaller participants are moving away from the futures and options segment, he said.

Source: Bloomberg Europe

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Gerik

Economic

Strategic Capital Rotation Toward China’s AI Ecosystem

As global enthusiasm for artificial intelligence continues to reshape equity markets, fund managers are becoming more selective in their exposure. One of Asia’s top-performing fund managers, Kelly Chung of Value Partners, has begun rotating out of South Korean and Taiwanese equities into Chinese AI stocks, particularly hyperscalers listed in Hong Kong. This strategic pivot is based on a comparative advantage in valuations and the long-term growth potential of China’s underdeveloped AI infrastructure investment.

Chung oversees the Value Partners Asian Income Fund and the Asian Innovation Opportunities Fund, which jointly manage $490 million and have each outperformed 98% of peers over the past year. She emphasizes that while Chinese firms currently lag behind U.S. counterparts in AI capital expenditure, their investment trajectory still has substantial room for growth. As China increases AI infrastructure spending, related stocks are likely to appreciate in value, especially since their current market prices remain relatively subdued.

Contrasting Market Movements and Valuation Metrics

The divergence in market momentum across Asia has become stark. South Korea’s Kospi index, driven heavily by technology firms like SK Hynix (a major Nvidia supplier), has surged 21% in three months, with SK Hynix shares more than doubling. Taiwan’s benchmark has risen 9.2% during the same period. However, the Hang Seng Tech Index home to China’s top AI and cloud companies has declined 4.8%, signaling a potential valuation disconnect that Chung’s funds aim to exploit.

Valuation multiples underline this relative underpricing. The Hang Seng Tech Index trades at approximately 18 times forward earnings, significantly below the Nasdaq-100’s 21 times. According to Goldman Sachs, Chinese cloud providers are projected to increase investments by 20% next year a bullish signal yet this still represents only about 10% of the investment scale of U.S. peers, underscoring the gap in growth stage rather than saturation.

Rethinking AI Exposure: Risk Management and Profit-Taking

The broader market concern revolves around the sustainability of AI-driven rallies. The initial euphoria has inflated valuations for several top players, and with earnings not yet catching up in some cases, investor sentiment is shifting toward defensive positioning. Chung's decision to rotate toward lower-valuation names in China reflects a desire to position for the next wave of AI expansion while insulating the portfolio from potential corrections in overheated markets.

She notes that earnings upgrades in Korea and Taiwan have indeed occurred, but the recent rallies in these regions appear primarily valuation-driven rather than earnings-led. This distinction implies that the recent upward momentum may not be sustainable, increasing the risk of profit-taking as markets digest the gains from 2025's AI bull run.

Outlook and Implications

The shift by funds like Value Partners suggests that investors are becoming more valuation-conscious and regionally diversified in their AI bets. China's AI ecosystem though lagging in absolute investment volume presents a compelling asymmetric opportunity, where upside potential may outweigh short-term risks due to favorable entry points and long-term policy support.

The move also indicates a subtle sentiment shift within Asian capital markets: investors are beginning to question the durability of tech rallies in Korea and Taiwan, especially if growth moderation sets in. Meanwhile, China’s lower base of AI infrastructure and continued support from domestic cloud service giants could offer both resilience and upside in the next investment cycle.

As the AI boom matures, fund managers like Kelly Chung are refining their exposure strategies to emphasize value and future scalability. China’s underappreciated AI stocks now present a promising frontier, especially compared to pricier markets like Korea and Taiwan. This pivot not only highlights a nuanced response to market valuations but also illustrates how long-term AI narratives continue to shape capital flows across Asia.

Source: Bloomberg

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Political

Legislative Shift Spurs Renewed Legal Efforts

The U.S. Department of Justice has reignited its campaign to release sealed grand jury materials from the high-profile criminal cases involving Jeffrey Epstein and Ghislaine Maxwell. This latest initiative follows the passage of a new bipartisan law mandating broader transparency regarding Epstein-related documents. U.S. Attorney General Pam Bondi submitted formal requests to federal judges in New York and Florida, reversing the administration’s earlier posture that resisted disclosure.

President Donald Trump, after months of resistance, signed the legislation earlier this month. The law requires the DOJ to release a sweeping set of Epstein-related documents, including grand jury transcripts, flight logs, immunity agreements, travel data, and internal communications, as well as all materials connected to Epstein’s death in custody. The move marks a significant departure from the administration’s summer stance, which saw criticism over its perceived retreat from public transparency.

Legal Barriers and Judicial Skepticism

Despite the new law, the path to releasing grand jury materials remains fraught with legal complexity. Grand jury proceedings are protected by longstanding confidentiality rules intended to preserve the integrity of investigations and the privacy of individuals. Judges previously denied similar DOJ requests in August, suggesting that the focus on sealed grand jury evidence could distract from the far larger cache of non-sealed documents already in DOJ control.

U.S. District Judge Richard Berman, who presided over the Epstein case in Manhattan, emphasized that the Justice Department itself holds the majority of actionable information and should focus on that instead. Likewise, U.S. District Judge Paul Engelmayer, ruling on Maxwell’s case, dismissed the notion that the sealed grand jury material contained previously unreleased bombshells, noting bluntly, “There is no ‘there’ there.”

This reinforces a causal clarification that unsealing the grand jury evidence may not yield meaningful new insights, while distracting from the DOJ’s obligation to release existing non-sealed files.

Victim Notification Requirements Add New Layer

In a late development on Monday, Judge Engelmayer ordered the government to notify victims about its renewed motion to unseal grand jury materials in Maxwell’s case. Victims have until December 3 to submit their views, while Maxwell and the government must file their positions by December 10. This requirement underscores the legal procedural obligations embedded in transparency efforts and raises the potential for pushback from those directly affected by the materials’ release.

This judicial move also suggests a cause-and-effect dynamic wherein bypassing victim consultation could delay or derail the DOJ’s request, highlighting the importance of procedural legitimacy in controversial disclosures.

Political Undertones and Public Trust

While the legal maneuvering continues, political motivations remain under scrutiny. The timing of Trump’s legislative reversal just months after attempting to block such disclosures has prompted speculation that the unsealing effort may serve a broader political narrative. Previous judicial commentary implied that the focus on sealed records might be aimed at managing public perception rather than releasing meaningful evidence.

This tension between policy-driven transparency and political theatrics is further complicated by public pressure, the legacy of Epstein’s abuse network, and a justice system often criticized for shielding powerful individuals.

The DOJ’s renewed push to unseal grand jury documents in the Epstein-Maxwell cases reflects both a shift in legislative momentum and an ongoing legal tug-of-war over transparency, privacy, and institutional credibility. Whether these materials will offer new revelations or simply fulfill a symbolic function remains uncertain. But as court deadlines approach and victims’ voices are formally invited into the process, the battle over Epstein’s secrets is far from over and public demand for accountability remains as potent as ever.

Source: Bloomberg

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Economic

US-China Truce Overshadowed by Taiwan Tensions

Following a trade truce in October, President Trump and President Xi Jinping held their first official phone call, with discussions touching on bilateral trade, Taiwan, and an upcoming visit to Beijing. While Trump portrayed the call as constructive, Chinese state readouts prioritized sovereignty over Taiwan and warned against Japanese military rhetoric. Beijing’s reaction included suspending imports and cultural exchanges with Japan. This development risks derailing the fragile trade détente, revealing that the truce may only be temporary if geopolitical tensions continue escalating.

This reflects a potential causal relationship between geopolitical instability and trade uncertainty. The growing tension over Taiwan, particularly amid US-Japan cooperation, could directly reignite tariff disputes and disrupt the truce’s implementation.

Legal Jeopardy for Tariffs as SCOTUS Prepares Ruling

Back home, Trump’s tariffs are legally vulnerable. The Supreme Court is reviewing whether the president exceeded his authority under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act. Anticipating a loss, the White House has quietly prepared contingency plans using other legal frameworks like Sections 301 and 122 of the Trade Act. However, these alternatives are less powerful and face their own legal risks. The administration's preparation reveals a causal expectation that the court’s decision could undermine the current tariff regime and force a swift strategic pivot.

Trump continues to insist that revenue from tariffs will “skyrocket,” but the Congressional Budget Office has revised its estimates, lowering the projected deficit reduction from $4 trillion to $3 trillion. The reduction stems from both recent tariff rollbacks and diminished actual collection, signaling that economic assumptions did not match real-world behavior, a correlation that undermines Trump’s fiscal justifications.

EU Rejects US Demands Amid Trade Stalemate

Tensions with the European Union remain unresolved. Despite earlier frameworks signed in July, the EU has resisted US demands to weaken its digital regulations in exchange for tariff relief on steel and aluminum. The bloc insists its digital policies are non-negotiable and meant to protect consumers rather than target American firms. This refusal signals a cause-effect disconnection: the US is trying to tie unrelated trade and regulatory issues, while the EU views them as separate domains.

While both sides initially agreed to reduce tariffs (including a 15% levy on many goods and mutual removal of some agricultural barriers), implementation has stalled. US officials claim Europe is slow to act, while the EU criticizes Washington for expanding the 50% steel tariff to over 400 EU products. This mutual blame suggests reciprocal causality where distrust and partial compliance from both parties are reinforcing the deadlock.

Brazil Scores Victory, Food Prices Ease

In a rare reversal, Trump rescinded the 40% tariff on Brazilian food products ranging from beef to coffee following domestic backlash over soaring food prices. This decision comes as inflation remains a key voter concern, especially after Democrats gained ground in recent elections. The tariff cut led to a significant drop in global coffee prices (arabica futures fell 4.6%, robusta down 5%), showing a direct causal link between tariff decisions and commodity markets.

Brazilian President Lula da Silva celebrated the exemption as a strategic win, having maintained pressure without concessions. This episode illustrates how persistent diplomatic resistance, combined with economic pressure from US consumers, can force policy shifts even under a protectionist administration.

India, Russia, and Global Realignments

Following intensified US sanctions on Rosneft and Lukoil, Indian refiners are being offered steep discounts on Russian Urals crude up to $7 below Brent though most are wary of new shipments. Concurrently, Reliance Industries has stopped processing Russian oil at one major refinery to comply with sanctions. These developments expose a causal sequence where sanctions disrupt traditional energy flows, prompting market realignments and strategic repositioning by key players like India.

At the G20 summit, Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney publicly declared that the world economy can progress without US participation, a clear rebuke of Trump’s trade agenda. By pursuing stronger ties with China, India, and South Africa, Canada is signaling a strategic decoupling, a correlational shift in geopolitical alignments accelerated by American unilateralism.

The Tariff Dividend and Its Political Mirage

Trump has floated the idea of distributing $2,000 "tariff dividend" checks to American households, but experts argue the math doesn’t add up. Economists point out that the revenue collected is insufficient and that the policy might add more to the deficit than it reduces. This proposal is more political than fiscal, aiming to soothe voter frustrations, but it risks deepening economic distortion highlighting a mismatch between fiscal projection and political promise.

Tariffs are also stifling sectors like tech and wine. Nvidia’s sales to China underperformed due to tightened export controls and geopolitical tension, reducing China’s share of its quarterly revenue to 5% from a previous 13%. Meanwhile, US wine importers report rising prices and shrinking selection due to tariffs and regulatory burdens, contributing to a 13% drop in wine sales year-on-year.

Trump’s tariff strategy, once touted as a cornerstone of his economic nationalism, is now caught in a crossfire of legal scrutiny, international backlash, and domestic price pressure. While short-term concessions like tariff relief for Brazil offer temporary reprieve, the broader trajectory suggests growing resistance abroad and mounting costs at home. The global trade landscape is shifting, and the US risks being left behind unless it recalibrates its approach to balance strategic interests with economic pragmatism.