India Rejects Trump's Claim of Trade Deals Linked to Ceasefire with Pakistan

India–Palestine conflict

Summary:

India has officially rejected U.S. President Donald Trump’s suggestion that trade concessions were linked to the recent ceasefire agreement with Pakistan...

India’s Rejection of Trump’s Comments on Trade and Ceasefire

The Indian government has dismissed U.S. President Donald Trump's assertion that trade agreements between India and Pakistan could be leveraged to ease military tensions between the two nations. Trump had suggested that the U.S. could offer trade support to both countries if they agreed to de-escalate their military conflict.

This claim came after India and Pakistan agreed on May 10, 2025, to cease military activities along their borders following a series of violent exchanges. Despite Trump's comments, India’s Ministry of External Affairs reiterated that trade negotiations were not part of the discussions between the U.S. and India regarding the conflict. According to spokesperson Randhir Jaiswal, no such trade-related discussions occurred in recent exchanges between U.S. and Indian officials.

Rising Tensions Between India and Pakistan

The ceasefire agreement followed heightened tensions after India’s military launched airstrikes on Pakistan, targeting alleged terrorist camps in retaliation for an attack in Kashmir. Pakistan denied the allegations, and both countries traded fire along the Line of Control, escalating fears of a wider conflict. The situation was especially concerning due to both countries’ nuclear capabilities.

India has long maintained that Kashmir-related issues must be resolved through direct dialogue with Pakistan, rejecting any external mediation or interference. Trump’s offer to mediate, particularly over the Kashmir conflict, was firmly rejected by New Delhi, which reaffirmed its position that it would not accept foreign involvement in these matters.

Diplomatic Fallout and Pakistan’s Actions

In addition to rejecting Trump’s claims, India’s diplomatic tensions with Pakistan intensified after the Pakistani Ministry of Foreign Affairs announced the expulsion of an Indian diplomat on May 13, 2025, accusing them of engaging in "inappropriate actions." This move added to the ongoing diplomatic spat, which included both nations reducing the size of their diplomatic missions in each other’s capitals.

The diplomatic strain, coupled with continued military skirmishes, shows that the situation remains volatile despite the ceasefire. India continues to assert its sovereignty over Kashmir and rejects any external involvement in resolving the region's long-standing issues.

Despite the international calls for peace and U.S. involvement, India has made it clear that it will continue to manage its relationship with Pakistan on its own terms. The country remains committed to its stance on Kashmir, refusing any mediation or involvement from outside powers, including the U.S. This is a clear indication that India intends to handle the situation independently, and the road to peace between the two nuclear-armed neighbors remains fraught with challenges.

Source: Global Times

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James Whitman

Economic

The United States and Qatar have entered into multiple commercial agreements valued at more than $243.5 billion, as announced by President Donald J. Trump during a recent meeting in Qatar. The agreements encompass a range of sectors, including aviation, defense, and infrastructure, and are expected to create thousands of American jobs and promote economic growth.

Among the most significant deals is the sale of Boeing (NYSE:BA) aircraft to Qatar Airways, which involves up to 210 Boeing 787 Dreamliner and 777X aircraft, along with GE Aerospace engines, totaling approximately $96 billion. This transaction represents Boeing’s largest-ever widebody order and is anticipated to support 154,000 U.S. jobs annually throughout the production and delivery phase.

In the energy sector, McDermott International has expanded its partnership with Qatar Energy through seven active projects worth $8.5 billion, focusing on the development of critical energy infrastructure. This collaboration is directly supporting numerous jobs within the U.S. energy industry.

Engineering firm Parsons (NYSE:PSN) has secured 30 projects in Qatar, valued at up to $97 billion, contributing to the company’s growth and supporting American employment in the engineering sector. Additionally, Quantinuum has finalized a Joint Venture Agreement with Al Rabban Capital to invest up to $1 billion in quantum technologies and workforce development in the United States.

In terms of defense, the agreements include a $1 billion acquisition of counter-drone capabilities from Raytheon (NYSE:RTN) by Qatar, marking Qatar as the first international customer for Raytheon’s FS-LIDS system. General Atomics also secured a deal nearing $2 billion for Qatar’s procurement of the MQ-9B remotely piloted aircraft system.

Moreover, the two nations signed a statement of intent outlining over $38 billion in potential investments, including enhancements to the U.S.-Qatar security partnership and investments related to Al Udeid Air Base and future defense capabilities.

The economic exchange between the U.S. and Qatar has a robust history, with the United States maintaining a trade surplus with Qatar since 2003. In 2024, the trade between the two countries totaled $5.64 billion. Qatar’s investments in the U.S. have been diverse, spanning sectors such as hotels, tourism, technology, healthcare, and energy, with significant contributions to American job creation and economic prosperity.

These newly signed agreements and statements of intent are based on a press release statement and are poised to enhance the bilateral commercial relationship between the United States and Qatar, fostering growth and innovation in both countries for the foreseeable future.

Source: Investing

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Devin

Economic

As per the commerce ministry’s announcement on Wednesday, China has temporarily halted some non-tariff measures that were previously imposed on 17 U.S. entities from its unreliable entity list and 28 U.S. entities from its export control list. These entities were added to the lists in April.

China’s unreliable entities list, which was updated on April 4, included 11 U.S. entities. Measures against these entities have been suspended for a period of 90 days, effective from Wednesday. Furthermore, measures against six more U.S. entities, which were added to the list on April 9, have also been paused. However, the duration of this suspension has not been disclosed.

In addition to these suspensions, China has also paused restrictions on 28 U.S. entities that were added to its export control list in April. These additions were made in two batches - 16 entities were added on April 4 and 12 were added on April 9. The suspension of restrictions on these entities will be in effect for 90 days.

Exporters who wish to ship dual-use items to these 28 entities during this period will need to submit an application to the commerce ministry, according to a statement from the ministry.

These suspensions follow China’s recent decision to reduce tariffs on most U.S. goods from 125% to 10% for a three-month period. This decision was part of an agreement with Washington aimed at reducing trade tensions between the two countries.

This article was generated with the support of AI and reviewed by an editor. For more information see our T&C.

Source: Investing

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Gerik

Economic

Political

EU's Shift in Trade Policy with Ukraine

In a surprising move, the European Union (EU) is set to raise tariffs on Ukrainian imports within the next few weeks, signaling a dramatic change in its trade relations with Ukraine. This decision comes as the EU nears the expiration of a temporary suspension of tariffs that was put in place following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in 2022.

The new tariffs are set to impact several key Ukrainian exports, particularly agricultural products such as corn, poultry, and sugar, which have been crucial to Ukraine's economy. The EU’s plan to replace the temporary suspension with "transitional measures" will significantly reduce the tax exemptions that have benefited Ukraine’s exports.

Internal Pressures Within the EU and Political Dynamics

The driving force behind this shift is Poland, which has been vocal about protecting its farmers from the influx of cheap Ukrainian goods, particularly agricultural products. Poland, along with other EU countries, has faced significant political pressure from local industries that claim the preferential trade terms with Ukraine are causing market distortions and lowering prices for local produce.

Poland has also been concerned with the impact of Ukrainian exports on its own domestic markets, prompting unilateral bans on Ukrainian grain imports, which were seen as violating EU trade agreements. With Poland facing a major election in May, these actions are likely aimed at appeasing voters and reducing the political power of opposition groups who advocate for more lenient trade policies with Ukraine.

The Economic Impact on Ukraine

Ukraine is expected to lose approximately €3.5 billion in revenue annually if the EU reverts to pre-war trade conditions, according to government estimates. The shift comes as Ukraine is already grappling with the economic fallout of the ongoing war and the strain of rebuilding its economy amidst the conflict.

Ukraine’s leadership has expressed dismay over the EU's decision to reconsider its trade benefits at such a crucial juncture. Mykhailo Bno-Airiian, Ukraine’s trade representative, called it a "major setback" and criticized the EU for failing to understand Ukraine's plight.

Impact on Ukrainian Exports and Agricultural Products

Under the EU's new plan, the tariff-free quotas for Ukrainian exports will be significantly reduced. The most affected sectors will include corn, poultry, honey, and sugar. For example, the corn quota will shrink from 4.7 million tons annually to just 650,000 tons, and poultry exports will face a reduction in quota from 57,110 tons to 40,000 tons.

Analysts are concerned that dividing the tariff-free quotas into smaller monthly allowances could disrupt the smooth flow of Ukrainian exports. This could lead to supply chain disruptions, particularly for perishable goods like poultry and honey, which require a more flexible distribution system. The monthly quota system is expected to create uncertainty for Ukrainian exporters, who will have to wait to see how much of their goods can be shipped each month.

The EU’s decision to scale back the trade concessions offered to Ukraine amid the war with Russia is expected to have a significant impact on Ukraine’s economy. While the EU aims to balance domestic interests with its support for Ukraine, the decision to reintroduce tariffs and restrict agricultural imports will create additional economic pressure on the war-torn country. With limited options for immediate solutions, Ukraine faces an uncertain future as it seeks to navigate the complex web of international trade, internal EU politics, and the ongoing conflict with Russia.

Source: FT

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Adam

Economic

China–U.S. Trade War

In the afterglow of the US-China trade agreement, stocks are back up on the year. Portfolios are close to where they started before "Liberation Day." And investors who stood their ground might feel vindicated, relieved, or just exhausted.

For all the vibrancy in the air, the return to previous levels is another reminder of how expectations have shifted. If the most extreme elements of a manufactured trade conflict have been settled or at least placed on hold, investors will turn their attention to what's next: the struggle to get inflation under control, the Fed's rate-setting predicament, and the challenge of navigating policy uncertainty.

"The transition from tariff rates, retaliation, and ultimately to trade deals is an important sequence for the recovery in US equity markets," said Adam Turnquist, chief technical strategist for LPL Financial, in a note this week.

While economists and other market observers have applauded the progress in trade negotiations, so much still needs to be ironed out with so many other governments. Meanwhile, the 90-day reciprocal tariff pause is more than one-third used up.

In recent weeks, as optimistic tariff news was sprinkled into the wider, more pessimistic discussions about trade woes, it's become clearer that positive trade headlines alone may not be sufficient to power the next leg upward.

"The lack of investor response could partially be due to the likelihood of the 10% universal tariff rate being maintained," said Turnquist.

Fresh inflation figures released Tuesday continued to fuel a sense of unease, even as the numbers showed cooling annual pricing pressures.

Consumer prices increased 2.3% over the prior year in April, a slowdown from March's 2.4% and below economists' forecast for 2.4%. That's the lowest annual increase since February 2021. On a monthly basis, prices increased 0.2%, lower than the 0.3% estimated by economists.

"While rapidly evolving tariff news has shocked markets in recent weeks and months, and economic survey data has been notably weak, we have yet to witness significant influences from tariffs on the inflation data," wrote Rick Rieder, BlackRock’s chief investment officer of global fixed income, in a note on Tuesday.

For Fed officials, the mild inflation reading is another reason to stick to a wait-and-see approach. The backward-looking data has yet to fully capture the impacts of the new tariff regime. And with overlapping 90-day pauses and ongoing trade negotiations, business leaders aren't sure what the new tariff landscape will ultimately be.

The walk-back with China produced instant relief. But investors are also left with hesitancy.

What is the financial equivalent of scar tissue and memories of adversity? The past few weeks have underscored how quickly things can change, for the better — and worse. A defensive positioning by spooked companies, foreign governments, and investors alike seems a likely outcome.

Alongside embracing the next series of catalysts and refocusing our attention back to the fundamental economic story, there will also be a reckoning of the damage that's been done.

Source: finance.yahoo

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Adam

Stocks

Equity investors pushed back into the market by a relentless rally are about to find out that the real challenge is just beginning.

A sharp rebound in risk assets — fueled by progress in trade talks, economic resilience and receding volatility — is turning skepticism into a trade that nobody’s really comfortable with, following a month in which the consensus was to brace for the worst. The three-month pause in US-China trade tensions is reassuring investors, yet lurking in the background is the risk that stocks get so extended that they’re vulnerable to any fresh surprises.

“Markets are in limbo as world leaders scramble to agree deals within the 90-day tariff pause,” notes the TS Lombard research team including Steven Blitz and Davide Oneglia. “What matters is the potential for permanent damage during and after the trade war purgatory.”

Stock Rally Nobody Is Comfortable With Makes It Hard to Chase_1

The powerful move off the April lows was almost impossible to predict or to fully participate in. A mix of out-of-the-blue headline risk, blurry data and a flip-flopping narrative created an unprecedented rebound. The speed of the drop and the still-unfolding rebound resembles the Covid market of 2020. Hence, a full recovery for the S&P 500 might be much quicker than other bear markets.

Feeling the Squeeze

Monday’s surge offered a stark example of the squeeze facing underexposed investors. Stocks leveraged to global growth and China-sensitive sectors surged on a wave of fast-money buying.

Data compiled by Bloomberg shows that many risky themes, which suffered losses of as much as 60% since the S&P 500 peaked in February, are back in favor. “Stocks are bid on the back of the cooling trade war temps, but it’s the low-quality themes that are pacing stocks,” note the traders at Goldman Sachs Group Inc.’s equity trading desk. They add that client activity levels were up by 71% on Monday.

Stock Rally Nobody Is Comfortable With Makes It Hard to Chase_2

Systematic strategies are adding to fuel to the rally. This cohort of investors uses quantitative models to buy stocks and cares not one bit about headline risk. Those flows push the market higher into areas where risk/reward becomes thin for everyone using classic valuations or a lack of conviction due to economic uncertainty.

Even retail investors — often the first to give up and the last to join rallies — were constantly buying during the selloff.

Mindful of Risks

Professional investors, however, seem far from all in on stocks. Data from the Commodity Futures Trading Commission shows that asset managers remain light on S&P 500 futures. UBS Group AG strategists including Nicolas Le Roux said trend following strategy funds, or CTAs, have been supporting the rebound in risky assets but are in no rush to add significant exposure.

“Given the speed and strength of the rebound, CTAs are not rushing to add,” the UBS team said. “They prefer smoother trends, and will wait for price confirmation before pressing the buy button hard.”

Meanwhile, data from Goldman Sachs’ Prime Desk showed global equities had the second-largest notional net buying from hedge funds in five years on Tuesday. That was “driven by short covers and to a lesser extent long buys,” the desk wrote in a note to clients.

Stock Rally Nobody Is Comfortable With Makes It Hard to Chase_3

That positioning disconnect means the squeeze may not be over. Deutsche Bank AG strategists argue that the US-China trade announcement alone justifies a re-risking shift. “It exceeds anything the market could have anticipated back in March,” they wrote. “Stay bullish.”

Technical indicators also suggest the rally could run further. Market breadth isn’t overextended, and potential turning points such as the 200-day moving average posed little resistance.

Also, V-shaped recoveries have a habit of leaving cautious investors behind. Data complied by SentimenTrader shows that performance, while weak in the short-term, is offering good returns for steady hands.

“Based on behavior since the April low, the rally does seem more likely than usual to be sustainable,” SentimenTrader said. “Of course, nothing is guaranteed, and all we’re dealing with are probabilities. The good news is that the probabilities shifted in bulls’ favor.”

Stock Rally Nobody Is Comfortable With Makes It Hard to Chase_4

But this chase has its own risks. The stronger the rally, the more asymmetric the setup becomes - higher prices and lower volatility increase the chance of a painful reversal if good news stalls. The risk-reward balance is thus pivoting back toward unappealing levels for many.

That’s especially true as many of the tailwinds fueling this surge aren’t rooted in hard data just yet. Signs that the economy did get hit even from the very short-lived punitive tariffs could cause optimism to fade quickly and stocks to eventually face a buyer’s strike.

“It’s not all perfect out there,” warned Charlie McElligott, managing director of cross-asset strategy at Nomura Securities International Inc. Things could get turned upside down again when moving closer to the tariff pause deadline in case President Trump “can’t help himself and risks twisting the knife again.”

Source: Bloomberg

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James Whitman

Commodity

Gold price fell through key supports on Wednesday, deflated by growing optimism on US-China trade deal that cooled fears about deeper economic crisis and offset other factors that boost safe haven demand.

Fresh wave of risk appetite pushed gold through pivots at $3228 (50% retracement of $2956/$3500 upleg) which recently contained several attacks and $3200 (psychological/low of pullback from new record high).

Sustained break of $3200 to complete bearish failure swing pattern and generate signal of potential deeper pullback from $3500 peak.

Daily studies are weakening as 14-d momentum is heading deeper into negative territory and the price fell below 10/20/30 DMA’s which also formed bear-crosses.

However, oversold stochastic warns of possible increased headwinds that may result in hesitation at $3200 zone and keep near term price action in extended consolidation.

The price should stay under broken Fibo 50% ($3228) and extended upticks not to exceed daily highs of Tuesday / today ($3265/57 respectively) to keep bears intact.

Res: 3200; 3228; 3265; 3292.

Sup: 3164; 3126; 3100; 3084.