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SYMBOL
LAST
BID
ASK
HIGH
LOW
NET CHG.
%CHG.
SPREAD
SPX
S&P 500 Index
6827.42
6827.42
6827.42
6899.86
6801.80
-73.58
-1.07%
--
DJI
Dow Jones Industrial Average
48458.04
48458.04
48458.04
48886.86
48334.10
-245.98
-0.51%
--
IXIC
NASDAQ Composite Index
23195.16
23195.16
23195.16
23554.89
23094.51
-398.69
-1.69%
--
USDX
US Dollar Index
97.890
97.970
97.890
98.070
97.810
-0.060
-0.06%
--
EURUSD
Euro / US Dollar
1.17495
1.17502
1.17495
1.17596
1.17262
+0.00101
+ 0.09%
--
GBPUSD
Pound Sterling / US Dollar
1.33888
1.33896
1.33888
1.33961
1.33546
+0.00181
+ 0.14%
--
XAUUSD
Gold / US Dollar
4323.99
4324.40
4323.99
4350.16
4294.68
+24.60
+ 0.57%
--
WTI
Light Sweet Crude Oil
56.954
56.984
56.954
57.601
56.789
-0.279
-0.49%
--

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Portugal Treasury Puts 2026 Net Financing Needs At 13 Billion Euros, Up From 10.8 Billion In 2025

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Portugal Treasury Expects 2026 Net Financing Needs At 29.4 Billion Euros, Up From 25.8 Billion In 2025

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Bank Of America Says With Indonesia's Smelter Now Ramping Up, It Expects Aluminium Supply Growth To Accelerate To 2.6% Year On Year In 2026

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Bank Of America Expects A Deficit In Aluminium Next Year And Sees Prices Pushing Above $3000/T

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Fed Data - USA Effective Federal Funds Rate At 3.64 Percent On 12 December On $102 Billion In Trades Versus 3.64 Percent On $99 Billion On 11 December

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Brazil's Petrobras Says No Impact Seen On Oil, Petroleum Products Output As Workers Start Planned Strike

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Statement: US Travel Group Warns New Proposed Trump Administration Requirements For Foreign Tourists To Provide Social Media Histories Could Mean Millions Of People Opting Not To Visit

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Blackrock: Kerry White Will Become Head Of Citi Investment Management At Citi Wealth

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Blackrock: Rob Jasminski, Head Of Citi Investment Management, Has Joined With Team

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Blackrock: Effective Dec 15, Citi Investment Management Employees Will Join Blackrock

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Blackrock: Formally Launch Citi Portfolio Solutions Powered By Blackrock

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According To Data From The Federal Reserve Bank Of New York, The Secured Overnight Funding Rate (Sofr) Was 3.67% On The Previous Trading Day (December 15), Compared To 3.66% The Day Before

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Peru Energy And Mines Ministry: Copper Production Up 4.8% Year-On-Year In October To 248192 Metric Tons

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Security Source: Ukrainian Drones Hits Russian Oil Infrastructure In Caspian Sea For Third Time

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Spot Palladium Extends Gains, Last Up 5% To $1562.7/Oz

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Mexico's Economy Ministry Announces Start Of Anti-Dumping Investigation And Anti-Subsidy Investigations Into USA Pork Imports

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Canada Nov CPI Common +2.8%, CPI Median +2.8%, CPI Trim +2.8% On Year

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NY Fed's Empire State Prices Paid Index +37.6 In December Versus+49.0 In November

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Canada Nov Consumer Prices +0.1% On Month, +2.2% On Year

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Canada Nov CPI Core -0.1% On Month, +2.9% On Year

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          How to Pick the Right Stock Broker

          Glendon

          Economic

          Summary:

          Learn how to choose the best stock broker for your needs. Discover key factors like fees, platforms, and customer support to make an informed decision.

          Choosing the right stock broker is one of the most important decisions you’ll make as an investor. Whether you’re a beginner or a seasoned trader, the right broker can help you achieve your financial goals, while the wrong one can lead to frustration and unnecessary costs. With so many options available, how do you pick the best one? Here’s a comprehensive guide to help you make an informed decision.

          1. Understand Your Needs

          Before diving into the options, assess your investment goals and trading style. Ask yourself:
          Are you a long-term investor or an active trader?
          Do you need access to international markets or just domestic ones?
          Are you interested in stocks, ETFs, mutual funds, or other assets like options and cryptocurrencies?
          Your answers will help narrow down the type of broker that suits you best.

          2. Check for Regulation and Security

          Always choose a broker that is regulated by a reputable authority, such as the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) in the U.S. or the Financial Conduct Authority (FCA) in the UK. Regulation ensures the broker adheres to strict standards, protecting your funds and personal information. Additionally, look for brokers that offer two-factor authentication (2FA) and encryption to safeguard your account.

          3. Compare Fees and Commissions

          Brokers make money through fees, and these can vary widely. Key fees to consider include:
          Trading Commissions: Some brokers charge per trade, while others offer commission-free trading.
          Account Fees: Look for maintenance fees, inactivity fees, or minimum balance requirements.
          Withdrawal Fees: Check if there are costs for transferring funds out of your account.
          Even small fees can add up over time, so choose a broker with a transparent and competitive fee structure.

          4. Evaluate the Trading Platform

          The trading platform is your gateway to the markets, so it should be user-friendly and reliable. Key features to look for include:
          Ease of Use: A clean, intuitive interface is essential, especially for beginners.
          Research Tools: Access to real-time data, charts, and analysis can help you make informed decisions.
          Mobile Access: A robust mobile app allows you to trade on the go.
          Many brokers offer demo accounts, so take advantage of these to test the platform before committing.

          5. Assess Customer Support

          Reliable customer support is crucial, especially if you’re new to trading. Look for brokers that offer:
          Multiple Contact Options: Phone, email, and live chat support.
          Availability: 24/7 support is ideal, but at least ensure they’re available during market hours.
          Responsiveness: Read reviews to gauge how quickly and effectively they resolve issues.

          6. Consider Investment Options

          Different brokers offer access to different markets and assets. If you’re interested in diversifying your portfolio, choose a broker that provides:
          Stocks, ETFs, and Mutual Funds: Essential for most investors.
          Options and Futures: For more advanced traders.
          International Markets: If you want to invest globally.
          Cryptocurrencies: For those interested in digital assets.

          7. Look for Educational Resources

          If you’re a beginner, educational resources can be invaluable. Many brokers offer:
          Tutorials and Webinars: To help you learn the basics of trading.
          Market Analysis: Insights and research reports to guide your decisions.
          Glossaries and FAQs: To clarify trading terms and concepts.

          8. Read Reviews and Testimonials

          Finally, take the time to read reviews and testimonials from other users. Look for feedback on:
          Platform Reliability: Are there frequent outages or technical issues?
          Customer Service: Are users satisfied with the support they receive?
          Overall Experience: Would users recommend the broker to others?

          Conclusion

          Picking the right stock broker requires careful consideration of your needs, fees, platform features, and customer support. By taking the time to research and compare options, you can find a broker that aligns with your investment goals and helps you navigate the markets with confidence. Remember, the best broker for someone else may not be the best for you—so choose wisely!
          To stay updated on all economic events of today, please check out our Economic calendar
          Risk Warnings and Disclaimers
          You understand and acknowledge that there is a high degree of risk involved in trading. Following any strategies or investment methods may lead to potential losses. The content on the site is provided by our contributors and analysts for information purposes only. You are solely responsible for determining whether any trading assets, securities, strategy, or any other product is suitable for investing based on your own investment objectives and financial situation.
          Add to Favorites
          Share

          Why Is Ethereum (ETH) Price Down Today?

          Warren Takunda

          Cryptocurrency

          Ether has dropped by over 14.30% in the last 24 hours to reach around $2,330 on Feb. 25, its lowest point since the month’s beginning.Why Is Ethereum (ETH) Price Down Today?_1

          ETH/USD four-hour price chart. Source: TradingView

          The ETH price downturn comes amid several negative fundamentals, such as:
          US President Donald Trump’s renewed tariff threats.
          Largest crypto market liquidation since the Feb. 3 market rout.
          Weakening technicals that put ETH price at risk of falling below $2,000.

          Trump’s latest tariff threats dampen risk mood

          Ethereum is down today as investors react to renewed trade tensions under President Trump.
          What to know:
          On Feb. 24, Trump confirmed that sweeping tariffs on Canada and Mexico would take effect next week, ending a temporary pause.
          The announcement follows his Feb. 1 executive order imposing 25% tariffs on Mexican and Canadian goods, with an additional 10% duty on Canadian energy.
          These tariffs were initially delayed after diplomatic talks with Mexico and Canada.
          Markets have turned risk-averse, mirroring the downside reaction seen on Feb. 3 when Trump first threatened tariffs on Canada, Mexico, and China.
          Stocks and cryptocurrencies like Ethereum have declined as a result of renewed trade tensions.Why Is Ethereum (ETH) Price Down Today?_2

          BTC/USD and Nasdaq 100 Futures vs. Gold four-hour performance chart. Source: TradingView

          Meanwhile, gold has surged 12% this year as investors seek safer assets.
          But Fed officials have reiterated no urgency to cut interest rates.
          Higher interest rates and trade uncertainty are adding macroeconomic pressure on risk assets like Ethereum.

          Over $1.34 billion crypto positions liquidated

          Ethereum’s price decline coincides with the crypto market’s highest liquidations since the Feb. 3 rout.
          Key takeaways:
          In the past 24 hours, $1.34 billion in crypto liquidations occurred.
          Long positions accounted for $1.25 billion of total liquidations, significantly outpacing short liquidations at $87.09 million.Why Is Ethereum (ETH) Price Down Today?_3

          Crypto market liquidation heatmap (24 hours). Source: Coinglass

          Ethereum liquidations totaled $294.12 million, with a majority of them being long positions.
          Similar liquidation trends were observed on Feb. 3, when Ethereum dropped due to Trump’s tariffs and leverage washouts.Why Is Ethereum (ETH) Price Down Today?_4

          ETH total liquidations chart vs. ETH price. Source: CoinGlass

          High liquidation volumes indicate excessive leverage and sudden market moves, contributing to Ethereum's decline.
          Traders getting liquidated en masse leads to forced selling, amplifying price drops in ETH and other crypto assets.

          Ethereum risks another 20% drop

          Ether price has entered the breakdown stage of its prevailing bear pennant pattern, signaling further downside in the days and weeks ahead.
          Key points:
          On Feb. 23, Ethereum broke below the lower trendline of its bear pennant pattern.
          Such a move, if accompanied by a rise in volumes, hints at a potential breakdown.Why Is Ethereum (ETH) Price Down Today?_5

          ETH/USD daily price chart. Source: TradingView

          As a technical rule, a bear pennant breakdown target is measured after adding the previous downtrend’s height to the breakdown point.
          Applying the same rule on Ether brings its downside target to $1,945, down about 20% from the current price levels.

          Source: Cointelegraph

          Risk Warnings and Disclaimers
          You understand and acknowledge that there is a high degree of risk involved in trading. Following any strategies or investment methods may lead to potential losses. The content on the site is provided by our contributors and analysts for information purposes only. You are solely responsible for determining whether any trading assets, securities, strategy, or any other product is suitable for investing based on your own investment objectives and financial situation.
          Add to Favorites
          Share

          Trump Curbs Chinese Investment and Proceeds With Tariffs on Canada and Mexico

          Warren Takunda

          Economic

          Speaking at a White House press conference, President Trump said the delayed tariffs on Canada and Mexico would go forward next month. The pledge came on Monday after he signed a memorandum telling a government committee to curb Chinese spending on tech, energy, and other strategic American sectors. Both actions are risking an escalation of a potential global trade war, pressuring global market sentiment.

          Trump will proceed with tariffs on Canada and Mexico

          "The tariffs are going forward on time, on schedule", Trump responded to reporters when asked if he would proceed with the delayed tariffs on Canada and Mexico. Trump originally announced a plan to impose 25% tariffs on Canada and Mexico, and 10% levies on Canadian oil at the beginning of the month, scheduled to take effect on 4 February. He then delayed it for one month after both countries agreed to tighten their borders to stop illegal migrants and drug trafficking, particularly fentanyl.
          Soon after that, he announced a plan to impose a 25% import duty on steel and aluminium, followed by an executive order to investigate reciprocal tariffs to all the trading partners, both of which may start in April. Canada and Mexico will face compounding tariffs as mentioned, which will have a significant economic impact on both countries.

          A widening US-China trade war

          Alongside the announcement of tariffs on Mexico and Canada, he also imposed blanket 10% tariffs on Chinese goods this month, which promopted retaliatory action from the Chinese government. Over the weekend, he proposed fees for the use of commercial ships made in China to curb the country's dominant position in making vessels.
          Last Friday, he signed a memo to direct the Committee on Foreign Investment to curb Chinese investment in the US. The order stated that China is "exploiting our capital and ingenuity to fund and modernise their military, intelligence, and security operations, posing direct threats to United States security". The US will establish new rules "to curb the exploitation of its capital, technology, and knowledge by foreign adversaries such as China to ensure that only those investments that serve American interests are allowed".
          In response, China's Ministry of Commerce said in a statement that the new rules are "very unreasonable" and "will further distort the bilateral investment, benefiting neither the US nor China." It added that China urged the US to "stop politicising and weaponising economic and trade issues", warning it would "take necessary measures to safeguard its legitimate rights and interests".

          Stock markets fall, USD strengthens, gold hits a new high

          Investment sentiment soured amid Trump's expansion in tariff and trade threats, with global stock markets mostly lower on Monday. Three US benchmarks, including the Dow Jones Industrial Average, the S&P 500, and the Nasdaq extended a three-day losing streak.
          The Chinese stock markets retreated from a month-long rally, with the Hang Seng Index falling from its highest level since February 2022. The index opened sharply lower before rebounding on Tuesday. In contrast, Germany's DAX was exceptional, ending higher on optimism toward the election results. However, the benchmark is likely to see ripple effects from the global markets, with party negotiations looming to form a new government.
          In currencies, the US dollar strengthened from a two-and-a-half-month low level due to risk-off sentiment. The Canadian dollar, the Mexican Peso, and the Chinese Yuan all weakened against the greenback. The euro retreated from the intraday high and ended flat against the dollar.
          Gold hit a new high as haven demand increased amid economic uncertainties. However, a strengthened US dollar may cap its upside momentum, while an overbought signal is likely to lead to a technical correction of the precious metal.

          Source: Euronews

          To stay updated on all economic events of today, please check out our Economic calendar
          Risk Warnings and Disclaimers
          You understand and acknowledge that there is a high degree of risk involved in trading. Following any strategies or investment methods may lead to potential losses. The content on the site is provided by our contributors and analysts for information purposes only. You are solely responsible for determining whether any trading assets, securities, strategy, or any other product is suitable for investing based on your own investment objectives and financial situation.
          Add to Favorites
          Share

          Deepseek Reopens Access to Ai Model as Chinese Rivalry Escalates

          Cohen

          Economic

          DeepSeek has reopened access to its core programming interface after nearly a three-week suspension, resuming a service key to wider adoption of an AI model that’s proven remarkably popular since its emergence last month.

          The 20-month-old Chinese startup, which stunned Silicon Valley and markets in January with an AI platform that rivals OpenAI’s, said it’s again allowing customers to top up credits for use on its application programming interface. DeepSeek suspended top-ups in early February because of capacity shortages. While those have now resumed, server resources will remain strained during the daytime, a DeepSeek representative said in a verified company group chat on WeChat.

          DeepSeek resumed top-ups the same day that Alibaba Group Holding Ltd launched a preview of its latest model, QwQ-Max, underscoring the deepening competition within China’s nascent AI industry. Alibaba pledged this week to invest US$53 billion (RM234.37 billion) over three years to bolster its cloud computing and AI infrastructure, in a major pivot for the e-commerce pioneer.

          On Tuesday, Alibaba declared plans to open-source QwQ-Max, intensifying competition with DeepSeek as well as other developers from Baidu Inc to startups like Zhipu.

          DeepSeek’s arrival reinvigorated the Chinese tech scene and triggered a rally in mainland and Hong Kong stocks.

          Its services have been overwhelmed with demand since unveiling an artificial intelligence chatbot that it says can rival OpenAI’s ChatGPT and was developed at a fraction of the cost of competing products. Its models have since been adopted by a plethora of Chinese firms across multiple industries, even as foreign governments from Australia to the US move to block its usage over security concerns.

          Last week, DeepSeek said it plans to release key code and data to the public, an unusual step to share more of its core technology than rivals such as OpenAI have done. That potentially escalates a race between the US and China to develop ever more advanced AI models.

          Source: Theedgemarkets

          To stay updated on all economic events of today, please check out our Economic calendar
          Risk Warnings and Disclaimers
          You understand and acknowledge that there is a high degree of risk involved in trading. Following any strategies or investment methods may lead to potential losses. The content on the site is provided by our contributors and analysts for information purposes only. You are solely responsible for determining whether any trading assets, securities, strategy, or any other product is suitable for investing based on your own investment objectives and financial situation.
          Add to Favorites
          Share

          Morning Bid: Sea of Red as US-China Tech War Ratchets Up

          Warren Takunda

          Stocks

          Economic

          It is a sea of red in Asia as investors grapple with risk posed by the U.S. intensifying its technology war with China in areas as varied as artificial intelligence, quantum computing and aerospace.
          The U.S. also is seeking to toughen restrictions on the export of semiconductor technology to China - particularly chips from artificial intelligence leader Nvidia - with the help of allies, Bloomberg reported.
          Hong Kong's Hang Seng index initially fell as much as 2.7%, dragged down by an almost 8% plunge in tech giant Alibaba following a 10% drop in its American Depository Receipts. The sell-off abated, though, as investors chose to buy the dip given that stock's recent world-beating rally.
          The Hang Seng was last down 0.6% as Hong Kong-listed tech companies recouped early loss with more talk of demand for low-cost AI models from DeepSeek.
          On Wall Street, investors continue to question whether massive spending on AI is justified, as evident in the cautious mood ahead of Nvidia's earnings on Wednesday where analysts expect a whopping 72% increase in quarterly revenue.Morning Bid: Sea of Red as US-China Tech War Ratchets Up_1

          A column chart of the income recorded by NVIDIA over the last year, with a forecast for its Q4 2025 fiscal year.

          Gold is benefiting from the U.S. presidency of Donald Trump who was busy with Russia advocating a quick end to war in the Ukraine while dialling up tariff rhetoric against Canada and Mexico. The old-world asset set a record overnight, drawing tantalisingly close to $3,000 an ounce.
          Curbing risk appetite is a series of soft U.S. economic data including retail sales, consumer confidence and surveys on the manufacturing and services sectors. They all came in weak and pointed to intensifying price pressure, eroding confidence in the exceptionalism of the U.S. economy.
          Market participants have now fully priced in the prospect of the Federal Reserve lowering its policy interest rate by 50 basis points this year rather than 40 bps seen just last week.
          Treasury yields duly touched fresh lows in the Asian trading session. Benchmark Treasury yields hit a two-month low of 4.377% while two-year yields touched 4.156%, the lowest since early December.
          Next up will be the Conference Board's U.S. Consumer Confidence survey where analysts are wary of a repeat of the slump seen in the University of Michigan's equivalent poll.
          Dallas Fed President Lorie Logan and Richmond Fed President Thomas Barkin speak later in the day with central bank watchers expecting them to echo the message that the Fed will be cautious in cutting rates.
          European Central Bank board member Isabel Schnabel is also set to speak in London about the future of the central bank balance sheet.

          Source: Reuters

          To stay updated on all economic events of today, please check out our Economic calendar
          Risk Warnings and Disclaimers
          You understand and acknowledge that there is a high degree of risk involved in trading. Following any strategies or investment methods may lead to potential losses. The content on the site is provided by our contributors and analysts for information purposes only. You are solely responsible for determining whether any trading assets, securities, strategy, or any other product is suitable for investing based on your own investment objectives and financial situation.
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          Markets Cautious on Tariff Risk

          ING

          Economic

          Trump said yesterday that tariffs on Mexico and Canada are still on the table ahead of next Monday’s deadline. Markets remain reluctant to price that in for now, and some soft US consumer confidence figures today could actually send the dollar a bit weaker. In the eurozone, negotiated wage growth figures should not be a game-changer for the ECB.

          USD: Dollar might decline today

          The dollar found firmer terrain at the start of the week and received some help in late European hours from President Trump’s claim that tariffs on Canada and Mexico are moving ahead. The 25% duties were delayed by one month at the start of February, and Monday 3 March is the new deadline to avert a USMCA trade war. As discussed in yesterday’s FX Daily, we’d not be surprised to see Trump raise the tariff threat until the last minute to gain negotiating leverage, like in February. Our working assumption remains that 25% tariffs on Mexico and Canada won’t materialise, and markets are also pricing in only a modest risk of that happening. We could see FX taking the threat more seriously along the week, so USD/CAD and USD/MXN face near-term upside risks.
          On the data side, expect quite a lot of scrutiny on today’s Conference Board consumer confidence. The index jumped in November after the US election but declined in December and January. Consensus is looking at another slowdown to 102.5 from 104.1, with 100 potentially being the pain level for a market reaction. We’ll also see the Richmond Fed indices today after regional Fed activity measures (from Chicago and Dallas) came in soft yesterday.
          We outlined yesterday how we did not expect this week to have one-way traffic in the dollar. The upside risks for USD today primarily stem from other hawkish comments on tariffs by Trump or other US officials. Barring that, and considering the market’s tendency to call the bluff on tariffs, we think the dollar can edge back lower today as consumer confidence risks disappointing. That would feed into a growing narrative of softening consumption, and favour some dovish repricing of Fed expectations.

          EUR: Negotiated wages not that key for the ECB

          As we suspected, the German election rally in the euro did not last long, as markets were not pricing in a political risk premium before the vote and the key downside risks to the euro remain intact. Chancellor-in-waiting Friedrich Merz is reportedly discussing a quick agreement on EUR 200bn defence spending with its likely coalition partner SPD, following his remarks about Europe’s need to gain independence from the US. Our view is that defence spending will not be seen by markets as a channel to revamp stagnant growth in the eurozone and should therefore have limited positive impact on the euro.
          The ECB publishes its indicator of the euro area negotiated wages for 4Q24. In 3Q24, the index jumped to 5.4% YoY, although that was primarily due to one-off payments, and ultimately not particularly taken into consideration by the ECB. The Bank’s target is around 3%, and while it may take longer for such a slowdown to show in the negotiated wage series, the ECB is seemingly welcoming the slower wage growth in other higher-frequency indicators. For instance, the Indeed wage growth tracker fell sharply to 2.5% in January. We think the bar is relatively high for the ECB to change its stance on the back of today’s negotiated wage data, and any positive reaction from the euro may be unwound once the ECB reiterates its dovish commitment.
          Anyway, we think EUR/USD could retest 1.050 on the back of some USD weakness today. Still, our view remains bearish on the pair and we target a return to 1.030 in the near term.

          GBP: Huw Pill to speak

          Bank of England policymaker Swati Dhingra reiterated her dovish position yesterday by stressing that gradual rate cuts will still leave monetary policy in restrictive territory and weigh on the economy. She was one of the two members, alongside Catherine Mann (a hawk turned dove) voting for a 50bp cut on 6 February.
          Today, we’ll hear some remarks by Chief Economist Huw Pill. He sits on the hawkish side of the spectrum and any dovish comments can have a tangible impact on rate expectations. Last week, Governor Andrew Bailey characterised the uptick in inflation as temporary, but market rate expectations remain rather cautious, with 50bp priced in by year-end. We expect three more cuts this year, also due to the worsening fiscal picture. Anyway, we see EUR/GBP upside as relatively limited due to the euro’s own negative, and think Cable is a much cleaner way to play GBP downside.

          AUD: Inflation data could reinforce the RBA’s caution

          Australia releases January inflation data tonight, and expectations are for a rebound in headline CPI from 2.5% to 2.6%. Markets will look closely at the trimmed mean to gauge whether the sharp decline to 2.7% in December was the start of a broader trend.
          We see risks of a relatively hot print tonight which can further endorse the RBA’s cautious stance on future rate cuts after kickstarting its easing cycle last week. Alongside inflation, the jobs market provided strong signals in the January report released after last week's rate cut. Employment increased by 44,000, doubling expectations and notably driven entirely by full-time hiring
          Risks to growth related to the impact of US protectionism can still lead to three more cuts by the RBA this year, but we think tonight’s CPI print can prompt a hawkish repricing in the AUD curve, which currently embeds 50bp by year-end. We expect some support coming the Aussie dollar’s way, but like for EUR/USD, we remain bearish on AUD/USD on the back of tariff risk, and target a return below 0.620 in the coming months.
          To stay updated on all economic events of today, please check out our Economic calendar
          Risk Warnings and Disclaimers
          You understand and acknowledge that there is a high degree of risk involved in trading. Following any strategies or investment methods may lead to potential losses. The content on the site is provided by our contributors and analysts for information purposes only. You are solely responsible for determining whether any trading assets, securities, strategy, or any other product is suitable for investing based on your own investment objectives and financial situation.
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          DOGE a Turning Point for U.S. Dollar Exceptionalism

          Warren Takunda

          Economic

          The U.S. economy has remained resilient in the face of global economic uncertainty, but looming DOGE-related job losses and elevated policy uncertainty could pose headwinds to its outperformance, according to Torsten Sløk, Chief Economist at Apollo Global Management.
          The Dollar was the best-performing major currency through the second half of 2024 as U.S. economic exceptionalism came to the fore with a solid run of above-consensus data releases.
          However, Sløk cautions that "the near-term downside risks to the economy and markets are growing."
          "Torsten Slok, who has been adamant and correct on the US economy for a long time (bullish) is turning more cautious and I think that’s worth paying attention to," says Brent Donnelly, founder of Spectra Markets. "It’s hard to say when the DOGE stuff will show up in the economic data, but the plunge in the S&P PMI on Friday might be a tell."
          If data begins to underperform, the market will move to 'price in' additional Federal Reserve rate hikes over the coming months, lowering U.S. bond yields, which would mechanically weigh on the Dollar.
          DOGE is a temporary government department led by Elon Musk, whose purpose is to carry out President Donald Trump's agenda of cutting federal spending and deregulation and boosting productivity.
          Market consensus expects around 300,000 DOGE-related job cuts, but Sløk warned that the real number could be significantly higher when including contract workers.
          Work by the Brookings Institution has shown that for every federal employee, there are two contractors. Based on this, says Slok, layoffs could potentially be closer to 1 million.
          With 7 million unemployed in a 160-million-strong U.S. labour force, Sløk noted that the job losses might appear marginal.
          However, he emphasised that such a shock could still "push jobless claims higher over the coming weeks," potentially pressuring the Federal Reserve’s policy outlook.
          Despite rising economic policy uncertainty, financial markets have not reacted as expected, Sløk said.
          "Credit spreads have not responded the way they normally do to rising policy uncertainty," he noted, pointing to historical trends where risk premiums typically widen in such conditions.
          DOGE a Turning Point for U.S. Dollar Exceptionalism_1
          Sløk warns this prolonged uncertainty could start affecting corporate investment decisions, particularly capital expenditures (capex) and hiring.
          "The question is whether persistently elevated policy uncertainty will begin to have a negative impact on capex spending and hiring decisions," he wrote.
          For now, key indicators remain robust, supporting the narrative of U.S. growth exceptionalism in the global economy.
          "The incoming data remains strong," Sløk said. "But we are starting to worry about the downside risks."
          The consensus amongst institutional analysts is that 2025 will see the big USD trend turn, with most seeing the high tide around mid-year.
          However, if Apollo's Slok is correct, it could be upon us.

          Source: Poundsterlinglive

          To stay updated on all economic events of today, please check out our Economic calendar
          Risk Warnings and Disclaimers
          You understand and acknowledge that there is a high degree of risk involved in trading. Following any strategies or investment methods may lead to potential losses. The content on the site is provided by our contributors and analysts for information purposes only. You are solely responsible for determining whether any trading assets, securities, strategy, or any other product is suitable for investing based on your own investment objectives and financial situation.
          Add to Favorites
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