How A 50% US Tariff Rate Could Affect Brazilian Exports

U.S. President Donald Trump said he plans to impose 50% tariffs on all products from Brazil starting August 1, which could have a sharp impact on South America's agricultural powerhouse.

The U.S. is the second biggest destination for Brazil's exports behind China. Oil is Brazil's main export to the U.S., but the country is also an important market for Brazilian manufactured goods such as aircraft and machinery.

COFFEE

The U.S. has traditionally been the main destination for coffee from Brazil, the world's largest exporter. The U.S. accounts for 16.7% of all the coffee Brazil exports.

Four trade sources told Reuters that U.S. coffee roasters would not be able to pay 50% more for the beans, while Brazilian exporters could not cut prices at the necessary level, which could lead roasters to source their beans elsewhere, while Brazil would likely divert cargos to Europe and Asia.

BEEF

The U.S. is the second largest market for Brazilian beef. Brazilian meatpacker Minerva said the tariffs would cut its net revenue by as much as 5% annually. Other major meatpackers, such as JBS and Marfrig, have a large part of their operations in the U.S., which would likely insulate them from a large impact.

The tariffs could raise beef prices in the U.S. that are already at record highs.

ORANGE JUICE

Trump's new tariff could severely impact Brazil’s orange juice industry, the world’s largest producer, industry group CitrusBR warned on Friday.

In the 2024/25 harvest, which ended on June 30, the U.S. accounted for 41.7% of Brazilian orange juice exports, making it a key market for the sector. CitrusBR said the tariff would be "unsustainable," as profit margins in the industry are too narrow to absorb the additional costs. Other importers would not be able to offset the decline in shipments to the U.S., the group added.

OIL

Exports to the United States accounted for approximately 13% of Brazil's total oil exports last year, government data compiled by commodities consultancy StoneX showed.

The loss for Brazil from the tariff would be relatively "modest," according to BTG Pactual analysts, since the sector has greater commercial flexibility and logistical capacity to redirect shipments to other markets. The U.S. is also not expected to feel the pinch deeply, as Brazil supplied less than 3% of what the U.S. has consumed so far in 2025, according to StoneX.

AIRCRAFT

Brazil's Embraer, the world's third-largest aircraft manufacturer with a huge market in the U.S. for its executive planes and regional jetliners, would be one of the companies most affected by the tariffs.

Brazilian aircraft exports to the U.S., particularly airplanes, represented around 63% of its total aircraft exports last year, according to analysts at BTG bank.

TIMBER

The U.S. accounts for more than 40% of the total timber exported by Brazil last year, according to BTG bank analysts.

Forest products from Brazil would become less competitive in relation to other nations, such as Canada and Chile, said Cogo Inteligencia em Agronegocio, a consultancy.

Suzano, a pulp giant with around 15% of its revenues in the U.S., could face difficulties in the short term, but the company benefits from having low costs, flexibility to reallocate volumes and global scale, according to a Citi report.

MACHINERY, ENGINES AND ELECTRONICS

The U.S. was the destination for around 60% of all exports from Brazil's engine, machinery and generator industry, according to a chart from BTG. The tariff will hurt motor maker WEG, said UBS BB analysts.

The U.S. is also the main destination for Brazilian electronics, according to the Brazilian Electrical and Electronics Industry Association.

Source: Reuters