Gold Pares Gains as Fedspeak Raises Doubts on Further Rate Cuts

Commodity

Summary:

After the policymakers’ remarks, yields on Treasury 30-year bonds rose, sending bullion lower by as much as 0.5% before paring some of the losses.

Gold pared gains as traders grew cautious on bets of further monetary easing next year after US Federal Reserve officials offered strongly opposing views Friday.

Declines in US equities, driven by a selloff in technology shares, also meant some investors may have to exit their positions in metals to cover losses elsewhere.

Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland President Beth Hammack said she would prefer interest rates be slightly more restrictive to keep pressure on inflation, which remains too high. Kansas City Fed President Jeff Schmid made the same argument, adding that’s why he dissented against the central bank’s decision this week to lower rates.

After the policymakers’ remarks, yields on Treasury 30-year bonds rose, sending bullion lower by as much as 0.5% before paring some of the losses. The precious metal typically performs well in a lower-rate environment and investors now are looking for more certainty on the outlook. Gold Pares Gains as Fedspeak Raises Doubts on Further Rate Cuts_1

Gold Pares Gains as Fedspeak Raises Doubts on Further Rate Cuts_1

The selloff appears broad-based across commodities markets and risk assets and is likely related to the aftermath of Wednesday’s Fed meeting, said Dan Ghali, senior commodity strategist at TD Securities.

Gold traders initially cheered the Fed’s announcement that it will begin buying $40 billion of Treasury bills per month starting Dec. 12 as it’s looking to rebuild reserves in the financial system, a move signaling more easing ahead. The Fed stopped shrinking its holdings earlier this month, a process known as quantitative tightening, amid signs reserves in the banking system were no longer abundant.

Markets are still debating whether the central bank’s reserve management purchases program is an effective form of quantitative easing, Ghali said.

The Wall Street Journal reported Friday US President Donald Trump said he was leaning toward choosing either former Fed governor Kevin Warsh or National Economic Council Director Kevin Hassett to lead the Federal Reserve next year. Hassett has emerged as the front runner and is widely considered a supporter of Trump’s preference for lower rates.

Silver retreated from an all-time high above $64. The white metal has been on a tear recently, helped by exchange-traded fund inflows and physical market tightness.

On iShares Silver Trust (SLV), the largest silver ETF, total call open interest hit the highest since 2021 this week. Meanwhile its total put open interest is at a record. The cost of buying calls relative to the cost of buying equivalent puts, which protect against downside in prices, has also jumped to a years-long high in recent weeks. Gold Pares Gains as Fedspeak Raises Doubts on Further Rate Cuts_2

Gold Pares Gains as Fedspeak Raises Doubts on Further Rate Cuts_2

Spot gold gained 0.6% to $4,304.26 an ounce as of 4:40 p.m. in New York. Silver tumbled 2.4%. Platinum rose while palladium fell. The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index was up 0.1%.

Source: Bloomberg

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Manuel

Cryptocurrency

Stocks

YouTube has added PayPal’s PYUSD stablecoin as a payout option for U.S. creators. The choice routes through PayPal’s payout infrastructure rather than requiring YouTube to custody or transfer crypto directly.

According to Fortune, PayPal crypto chief May Zabaneh confirmed the arrangement. Google and YouTube also confirmed PYUSD was added as a payout option for eligible creators.

The change lands inside one of the largest recurring creator pay streams in media. YouTube has paid out more than $100 billion to creators over the past four years.

That implies roughly $25 billion per year flowing through the platform’s monetization stack. The immediate impact is not that creators must “go on-chain.” It is that a stablecoin is now presented as a selectable payout rail inside a familiar payouts workflow for some creators. It starts in the U.S. and is opt-in.

Stablecoins move into mainstream creator payouts

Primary product documentation already supports the plumbing for that workflow, even if the PYUSD toggle itself is only confirmed by Fortune. Google’s help pages state that AdSense and AdSense for YouTube can pay via PayPal Hyperwallet.

They also state that Hyperwallet is available as a payment method for publishers based in the U.S. In some Google help flows, additional countries are listed.

According to Google’s documentation, the AdSense for YouTube payment process describes earnings being issued and then made available in Hyperwallet as part of the payout flow.

That matters because it keeps crypto handling concentrated inside a payments provider’s custodial, compliance-scoped environment. It still offers a route to external settlement for creators who want it.

PayPal’s help center explains that customers can transfer supported crypto, including PYUSD, to external addresses. Network support details are handled within PayPal’s crypto transfer experience.

Outbound transfers are part of the standard crypto feature set. That creates a practical bridge from a platform payout to an on-chain address without requiring the platform to integrate wallets.

How PYUSD turns platform payouts into on-chain, user-controlled transfers

In practice, a “payout in PYUSD” can be understood as three steps: YouTube earnings issuance, availability through Hyperwallet, and a creator-selected cash-out method. Google documents the first two steps through its AdSense for YouTube and Hyperwallet payout guides.

Fortune reports the third step now includes PYUSD for U.S. creators. If a creator chooses PYUSD and later wants to move funds beyond PayPal’s custody, PayPal documents the transfer-to-address path in its crypto help pages.

That places the final on-chain exit decision with the user rather than the platform. The scale of that distribution channel helps explain why stablecoin issuers and payment firms keep targeting payroll-like flows.

Creator payouts behave like long-tail contractor payments: frequent, fragmented, and often international in effect even when the payer is U.S.-based. A stablecoin option inside a mainstream payout menu does not need majority adoption to become operationally meaningful.

It converts small percentages of a large base into recurring transaction volume and repeated user behavior around holding, transferring, or spending a token balance. PYUSD’s current footprint also makes the distribution angle more relevant than a one-off announcement.

PYUSD sits at around $3.91 billion in market cap and a similar circulating supply, consistent with its dollar peg design. The token’s supply depth suggests a new on-ramp from creator payouts is better framed as incremental flow and velocity rather than a near-term supply shock.

PYUSD distribution shifts from headline supply to incremental payment flow

PayPal has also been extending PYUSD’s network reach, expanding to Arbitrum in 2025.

That adds another settlement environment intended to support commercial and cross-border uses alongside earlier support on other networks. Because YouTube has not published a breakdown for how much of its creator payouts are U.S.-based, any sizing exercise has to be explicit about assumptions.

YouTube also has not published how many creators use PayPal-linked rails. Using Reuters’ $100 billion over four years figure as a baseline, the range of potential annual PYUSD payout volume depends on opt-in behavior more than on YouTube’s aggregate payout totals. Crypto Just Entered YouTube’s $100B Creator Payouts, Offering a Novel Path to Finally Exit Banks_1

Crypto Just Entered YouTube’s $100B Creator Payouts, Offering a Novel Path to Finally Exit Banks_1

Even under the aggressive case, the implied flow is better read as a habits-and-plumbing story than a direct market-cap catalyst for a stablecoin already measured in the billions. Where supply can change is in “stickiness,” meaning how long recipients hold balances before converting or spending.

If payouts arrive in PYUSD and creators treat that balance as a temporary staging point before cashing out, the incremental steady-state balance can remain modest even when monthly flow rises.

If PayPal expands the places where PYUSD can be used within its network, or if creators choose to keep balances in-token, the same payout volume can support higher outstanding balances.

This kind of integration is also landing as U.S. policymakers move toward clearer payment stablecoin frameworks that enterprise finance teams can map onto existing controls.

Citi’s September 2025 “Stablecoins 2030” research notes stablecoin issuance rising from about $200 billion at the start of 2025 to roughly $280 billion.

It also includes revised 2030 issuance forecasts of $1.9 trillion in its base case and $4.0 trillion in a higher-adoption case. According to Citi, the scale of potential usage is tied to settlement behavior and transaction turnover as much as raw issuance.

Stablecoins move from pilot phase to regulated financial infrastructure

A competing lens is that stablecoins function economically as deposit-like liabilities that raise classic oversight and run-risk debates. That point is discussed in the Financial Times.

In Washington, the direction of travel is toward codifying guardrails rather than leaving stablecoins in a patchwork of state money-transmitter rules and enforcement actions. Congress.gov’s summary for the GENIUS Act outlines a framework concept for who can issue payment stablecoins and the expectations around redemption and oversight.

The bill is structured around issuer permissions and standards. The U.S. Treasury has already opened an advance notice of proposed rulemaking on implementation.

The ANPRM signals that operational details are moving into rulemaking, including the compliance and reporting expectations that large payment networks and platforms tend to require before turning a new money rail on at scale.

The Richmond Fed has also summarized issuer disclosure concepts that can matter for enterprise adoption, including monthly attestations and executive certifications. Final requirements depend on completed rules.

Against that backdrop, the YouTube-to-PYUSD option is a case study in how stablecoins can enter mainstream distribution without a platform retooling itself into a crypto business.

The platform keeps its payouts relationship with an established provider, and the provider offers a stablecoin balance as one of several payout destinations.

Creators decide whether to stop at a custodial balance, convert to fiat, or transfer to an external address. According to Fortune, that choice is now available to U.S. creators as a PYUSD payout option inside YouTube’s payout settings via PayPal’s rails.

Source: Cryptoslate

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Manuel

Political

China–U.S. Trade War

An upcoming US Supreme Court ruling on the legality of the sweeping tariffs that President Donald Trump rolled out in April — briefly sending markets worldwide into a tailspin — could be the next test for stocks that have been flying high.

The S&P 500 Index has since rallied 39% from the lows hit that month. It closed at a record high Thursday, in part because tariffs have settled lower than Trump’s highest threats, while support has come from an artificial-intelligence investment boom and a US economy that has kept expanding fast enough to throw off record corporate profits.

If the nation’s top court says Trump exceeded his authority with the blanket tariffs on countries around the globe, there will still be significant uncertainty. The White House could use other laws to reimpose some new levies, for example. Bond traders could push up yields over worries about the deficit, and that concern could spread into the equity market.

However, companies eager for a relief will likely to have to wait until at least January. With the Supreme Court beginning a four-week holiday recess, the window has all but closed for a ruling this year on challenges to Trump’s sweeping import taxes.

But when a decision does come, market participants say the initial reaction, at least, would likely be positive for stocks should the court strike down the tariffs. A ruling upholding the tariffs would likely have the opposite effect.

There are a few reasons why. Striking down the tariffs would eliminate a tax that many businesses haven’t completely passed along to customers, resulting in a drag on the bottom line. Refunds on what they’ve already paid could provide a windfall. And consumer spending may get a boost, too, given that Democrats in Congress estimate tariffs have cost the average American family some $1,200 over the past 10 months.

Overall, a ruling against the tariffs would boost the earnings of companies in the S&P 500 Index, before interest and taxes, by 2.4% in 2026 compared to current-year levels, Wells Fargo & Co. Chief Equity Strategist Ohsung Kwon estimated in October.

“That’s good for the market generally, because they look at tariffs as a tax,” said James St. Aubin, chief investment officer at Ocean Park Asset Management. “This will be a catalyst for a little bit of a rally.” The Stocks to Watch When Supreme Court Rules on Trump’s Tariffs_1

The Stocks to Watch When Supreme Court Rules on Trump’s Tariffs_1

Some companies, and their stocks, stand to benefit more than others. The tariffs have been particularly painful for those that are heavily dependent on imported goods, such as apparel companies and toymakers. Financial firms, for their part, stand to benefit from a more confident or flush consumer.

“On the flip side,” said Haris Khurshid, chief investment officer at Karobaar Capital, “materials, commodities and domestic producers that benefited from protectionism might lag a bit.”

Here’s a look at some of the sectors and companies with the most at stake when the decision does come:

Consumer

Clothing and toy companies — both heavily dependent on imports from China and other Asian countries targeted with some of the highest tariffs — are seen as clear winners, according to BI. Nike Inc. and Mattel Inc. are potential standouts.

Others include Deckers Outdoor Corp., Under Armour Inc., Crocs Inc., and American Eagle Outfitters Inc., all of which have struggled with tariff-related uncertainty. Home furnishing stocks have been volatile too, including Wayfair Inc., Williams-Sonoma Inc. and RH.

Texas Capital’s Eric Wold singled out some potential winners among the leisure-related companies he follows: boat-maker Brunswick Corp., toymaker Funko Inc. and Topgolf Callaway Brands Corp.

Industrials

Industrial manufacturing giants Caterpillar Inc. and Deere & Co. are among the firms set to benefit the most from tariff refunds, according to Wells Fargo’s Kwon. Stanley Black & Decker Inc., Fortive Corp. and Lennox International Inc. also make the list. The Stocks to Watch When Supreme Court Rules on Trump’s Tariffs_2

The Stocks to Watch When Supreme Court Rules on Trump’s Tariffs_2

Shares of automakers General Motors Co. and Ford Motor Co. advanced during the Supreme Court hearing last month, when the justices’ skepticism about the administration’s arguments increased market speculation that the tariffs would be struck down. While the case doesn’t affect the industry-specific tariff on automakers, they stand to gain from a stronger consumer.

Hedgeye also sees positive implications for transport stocks, expecting a boost if the tariffs are struck down and importers move to snap up inventory before any new ones are imposed. That could benefit United Parcel Service Inc., FedEx Corp. and trucking companies.

Financials

Major banks such as JPMorgan Chase & Co. and Goldman Sachs Group Inc. faced volatility earlier this year, alongside private equity giants like Blackstone Inc., amid concerns that Trump’s trade war will slow economic activity. Financial-technology companies such as Affirm Holdings Inc. and Block Inc. are prone to big swings, as are stocks linked to cryptocurrencies.

Lower tariffs may ease pressure on US consumers and support the broader economy. If inflation expectations move lower, it’ll also support the case for more rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, Clear Street analyst Owen Lau said.

Lower interest rates encourage “loan growth, refinancing, stronger equities markets and even higher consumer spending,” Lau said, “which will fundamentally benefit financial stocks in general.”

Source: Bloomberg

Risk Warnings and Disclaimers

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Manuel

Political

President Donald Trump’s administration is preparing to turn to private businesses to help mount offensive cyberattacks against foreign adversaries, according to people familiar with the matter, potentially expanding a shadowy electronic conflict typically conducted by secretive intelligence agencies.

The White House plans to make public its intention to enlist private companies in more aggressive efforts to go after criminal and state-sponsored hackers in a new national cyber strategy, a draft of which has been viewed by industry officials and experts. The strategy is expected to be released by the Office of the National Cyber Director in the coming weeks.

The draft, described to Bloomberg News by multiple people, says the federal government should unleash private businesses as it moves to impose consequences on foreign adversaries who breach critical infrastructure and telecommunications networks, or who cripple businesses with ransomware attacks. The draft didn’t provide many details on how the administration would use the companies.

A spokesperson for the Office of the National Cyber Director would not comment on the draft because it is not finalized but said the administration is committed to cybsecurity for Americans and US infrastructure, networks and information.

The administration is expected to provide more information after the release of the strategy, as well as an executive order that could outline private firms’ roles and provide them with more legal protections, the people said. Legislation might also be required.

The push to include industry would open lucrative new business opportunities to firms that have traditionally contracted with the government on defensive strategies rather than offensive measures. But it comes with risks.

There is currently no legal basis for private firms to conduct their own offensive cyber operations. Additionally, any operations to take down adversary infrastructure could put private firms in the crosshairs of foreign government entities, whose intelligence services often use affiliates to carry out their cyberattacks.

But the drive to enlist private companies reflects a growing view within the intelligence community and the administration that the US needs more capacity to fight hostile hacking groups that often work with abundant foreign state support. Adding those firms would both expand the government’s cyber warfare resources and free up intelligence agencies and the military to focus on work only they can handle.

Discussions on contracting out offensive cyber operations were already underway in Joe Biden’s White House, though his administration didn’t settle on a policy, said people familiar with those deliberations.

The cyber strategy draft, some five pages long, also calls for streamlining data security and cyber regulations, the modernization of federal systems, securing critical infrastructure and promoting adoption of post-quantum cryptography and secure quantum computing. The White House has invited industry officials to give feedback on the draft, which could still change, the people said.

Trump administration officials have for months made clear they intend to take more aggressive action against criminal and state-sponsored hackers. Alexei Bulazel, the National Security Council’s senior director for cyber, declared at a security conference in September that the administration is “unapologetic, unafraid to do offensive cyber.”

And tucked inside Trump’s multi-trillion-dollar tax and spending law is a little-noticed provision designating a $1 billion boost for offensive cyber operations, which have typically been conducted by the military’s Cyber Command or intelligence agencies. The law does not prescribe how the money be spent, but its inclusion in Trump’s cornerstone bill is a signal of offensive cyber’s importance to the administration.

Many cybersecurity firms known for defensive operations could easily apply their expertise and their technology to launch attacks, but offensive work would be financially and legally risky, potentially turning off customers and investors alike, said Michael Janke, co-founder of Datatribe, a tech foundry for cyber startups. Legislation, however, could hinder companies that want to remain discreet regarding the use of their tools.

“That gray area provides a lot for both government and commercial to flow within,” he said. “Once you shrink that to legislation, you may not have that gray area.”

Source: Bloomberg

Risk Warnings and Disclaimers

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Manuel

Political

Stocks

White House AI czar David Sacks defended President Donald Trump’s push to rein in state-level regulation of artificial intelligence over objections from Democrats, saying the move seeks to ease a growing compliance burden for companies.

Under the directive signed by Trump on Thursday, Sacks said, the administration is moving toward developing with Congress a common standard for oversight of the emerging technology. Right now, AI model development can take place across multiple states, each with its own regulatory standards.

“You have fifty different states running in fifty different directions. That type of compliance regime will be hard for small companies and startups, especially innovators,” Sacks said in an interview Friday on Bloomberg Tech. “What we need is a single federal or national framework for AI regulation.”

Championed by Sacks, the order culminates months of lobbying by AI companies led by OpenAI and Alphabet Inc.’s Google as well as venture capital giant Andreessen Horowitz, who have warned that state laws popping up across the country risk overwhelming a nascent industry and potentially harming US competitiveness with China in artificial intelligence. The measure marks the latest in a series of moves by Trump to boost the AI industry, including steps to make it easier to build infrastructure and increase energy supply for power-hungry data centers.

Trump directed the US attorney general to create a task force to challenge state rules that run afoul of his goal of promoting AI adoption. It also permits the Commerce Department to review whether federal broadband funding should be revoked from localities’ with AI measures that the administration deems onerous. Future discretionary grants may also be withheld by other agencies, unless states back away from enacting laws that the Trump team sees as impeding innovation.

The order is widely expected to face legal challenges, especially from states with provisions already in place. California State Senator Scott Wiener, who crafted landmark legislation in the Golden State that Governor Gavin Newsom signed in September, said that setting safety rules has been “a core pillar of state law for decades.”

“It’s absurd for Trump to think he can weaponize the DOJ and Commerce to undermine those state rights,” Wiener said in a statement. “If the Trump Administration tries to enforce this ridiculous order, we will see them in court.”

Sacks said the provision calling for the Justice Department to sue states over AI rules was designed to go after the most burdensome regulations. He expressed uncertainty about whether the administration would seek to challenge California or New York, but he did single out a law in Colorado seeking to prohibit algorithmic discrimination as “probably the most excessive.”

Trump pivoted to the executive order after White House officials and Republican lawmakers failed to include similar legislation preempting state AI laws in a must-pass defense bill earlier this month. Hours after the White House signing ceremony, Democratic US Senator Brian Schatz said he planned legislation that would seek a full repeal of the order.

“Embracing the amazing possibilities of AI can’t come at the cost of leaving Americans vulnerable to its profound risks, which is exactly what this executive order does,” Schatz said in a statement. “Congress has a responsibility to get this technology right – and quickly – but states must be allowed to act in the public interest in the meantime.”

US lawmakers have struggled for years to pass comprehensive AI legislation, and there’s currently no federal standard governing the technology, leaving local authorities to fill that void. The order calls for Sacks and other administration officials to work with Congress on legislation for a “minimally burdensome national standard.”

As AI becomes a central part of daily life, taking on roles such as assessing job applications, identifying criminal suspects, handling medical claims and creating content nearly impossible to distinguish from genuine photos or video, state lawmakers have expressed eagerness to impose some rules of the road. Trump’s order will complicate those efforts, putting any state passing legislation into potential conflict with the White House.

Tech companies have largely opposed state-level regulatory efforts, particularly in California and New York, that would hold companies accountable for harms caused by AI products like chatbots. Trump and his allies have touted the AI boom as a plus to the US economy, even as it poses political challenges, including voter concerns that data centers are spiking energy bills and fears that the technology will spur job losses.

Sacks, a venture capitalist who joined the administration in January, pushed back against those concerns on employment, saying that so far the AI race in the US has generated more jobs than it has cost.

“We are seeing an overall AI boom that’s benefiting the economy,” he said. “Certainly there can be job displacement in the future but we have not seen any of that so far. It’s been quite the opposite.”

Source: Bloomberg

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Manuel

Commodity

Oil prices fluctuated, hovering above the lowest levels in about two months as weakness in US equities markets added to bearish sentiment about oversupply.

West Texas Intermediate traded above $57 a barrel, while Brent traded above $61 a barrel in thin trading. Diesel futures, which were down about 0.7%, lagged the oil complex on Friday, while a selloff in US stocks dragged global gauges from the brink of record highs.

Concerns about oversupply have helped to push crude toward the lower end of a band it has traded in since mid-October, with Brent futures slowly trending toward $60 a barrel. Prices have not dipped below the key psychological level since May. Oil Swings Near Lowest Since October With Surplus in Focus_1

Oil Swings Near Lowest Since October With Surplus in Focus_1

The International Energy Agency on Thursday reiterated its prediction for an unprecedented surplus — although slightly below its forecast last month — and said global inventories have swollen to a four-year high.

Geopolitical tensions may add some support to oil prices. President Donald Trump announced new sanctions on three of Venezuelan counterpart Nicolas Maduro’s nephews as well as six oil tankers, after the US seized a supertanker off the coast of the Latin American nation on Wednesday.

The ship seizure was just the beginning of a new phase in the Trump administration’s ramped-up pressure campaign against the Venezuelan president, according to people familiar with the operation. The act of economic statecraft is designed to deny Maduro a lifeline of oil revenue and force him to relinquish power, the people said.

And a murky outlook for a peace deal to end Russia’s war in Ukraine — which could lower prices by eliminating sanctions on Russian crude — is also helping to support oil.

“Ukraine also seems to keep targeting Russian oil assets even as negotiations for peace are in the works which seems to be keeping a psychological floor in crude,” said Dennis Kissler, senior vice president for trading at BOK Financial Securities Inc.

Source: Bloomberg

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Justin

Political

Thailand's Prime Minister Anutin Charnvirakul looks on ahead of making offerings to monks, on the day he speaks to members of the media to announce the dissolution of parliament at the Government House in Bangkok, Thailand, December 12, 2025. REUTERS/Chalinee Thirasupa

BANGKOK, Dec 12 (Reuters) - Thai Prime Minister Anutin Charnvirakul confirmed on Friday that there was no ceasefire yet with Cambodia and said he had spoken by telephone with U.S. President Donald Trump and told him Bangkok was not the aggressor in the conflict with its neighbour.

Anutin said Trump told him he wanted the two countries to return to a ceasefire first agreed in July. He added that the U.S. president had not indicated that trade tariffs would be used as part of his efforts to end the fighting.

Anutin's remarks came as heavy border clashes between the two countries continued for a fifth day.

"He (Trump) wanted a ceasefire. I told him to ask our friends - don't just say a ceasefire but to tell the world that Cambodia will cease fire, withdraw its troops, remove all mines it has planted, and show them that they must stop everything first," Anutin told reporters.

"Right now, there is no ceasefire yet, the fighting is still ongoing," he said.

Thailand and Cambodia have been exchanging rockets and artillery at multiple locations along their disputed 817-km (508-mile) frontier in some of the most intense clashes since a five-day battle in July, which Trump stopped with calls to both leaders to halt their worst conflict in recent history.

Trump is keen to intervene again to salvage the truce he brokered. He met Anutin and Cambodian Prime Minister Hun Manet in Malaysia in October, where they signed an expanded ceasefire agreement.

Trump, who has repeatedly said he deserves the Nobel Peace Prize, lauded himself on Thursday as a global peacemaker and had on Thursday expressed confidence he would get the truce "back on track".

This week's clashes have killed at least 20 people, with more than 260 wounded, according to tallies by both countries, which have blamed each other for reigniting the conflict.

It was not immediately clear if Trump had spoken also to Cambodian Prime Minister Hun Manet.

Cambodian government spokesperson Pen Bona earlier on Friday said he was not aware a call had been scheduled between Hun Manet and Trump, adding "but normally, our PM is always ready to talk".

Hun Manet in August nominated Trump for the Nobel Peace Prize.