Gold Miners Shares Rise As Bullion Hits Record High

Commodity

Stocks

Summary:

Shares of major gold mining companies, including Newmont (NYSE: NEM), Barrick Gold (NYSE: NYSE:GOLD), Agnico Eagle Mines (NYSE: NYSE:AEM), Kinross Gold (NYSE: NYSE:KGC), AngloGold Ashanti (NYSE: AU) climbed 3% following a surge in gold prices to a record high, driven by a combination of US dollar weakness, criticism of the Federal Reserve, and ongoing trade war concerns.

Gold’s rally, which saw bullion surpassing $3,400 an ounce, came amidst the US currency falling to its lowest point since late 2023. The market’s move was further influenced by President Donald Trump’s consideration of firing Fed Chair Jerome Powell and advocating for lower interest rates. These developments have raised concerns over the independence of the Federal Reserve and potential politicization of US monetary policy.

The precious metal has experienced a significant uptrend this year as the trade conflict between the US and China has led to market uncertainty and a shift towards safer investments. The appetite for risk assets has weakened, while demand for havens has grown, as evidenced by a 12-week increase in holdings of bullion-backed exchange-traded funds—the longest such streak since 2022. Additionally, central banks have been accumulating gold in their reserves, contributing to strong global demand.

Amid these market conditions, banks have revised their outlook on gold, with some, like Goldman Sachs Group Inc (NYSE:GS)., predicting the metal could reach $4,000 by the middle of next year.

Source: Investing

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Warren Takunda

Economic

The Pound to Dollar exchange rate climbed to new six-month highs to open the new week and could be set to rise further, although there is now a significant technical resistance level looming almost immediately overhead of the market, which could temper the rally somewhat in the days ahead.

GBP/USD rose to almost 1.33 last week and then climbed further near to 1.34 in the Asia session overnight on Monday when it appeared on course for a 10th day of appreciation or recovery, bringing it within reach of 1.3427 and the 78.6% Fibonacci retracement of the June 2021 to September 2022 downtrend.

Temperance here could slow the rally somewhat, however, with the Dollar remaining on the back foot and fundamentals continuing to lean against the currency, any corrective setbacks for Sterling might be shallow and short-lived, with the nearest support levels found around 1.3233 and 1.3134 thereafter.

“We flipped our Dollar view a few weeks ago, based in large part on tariffs and other US policy shifts raising uncertainty and impairing sentiment in the US and likely weighing on US firms’ profits and US households’ real income,” says Kamakshya Trivedi, head of global FX strategy, at Goldman Sachs, in a Thursday commentary. Pound to Dollar Week Ahead Forecast: Buoyant but Resistance Looms_1

Pound to Dollar Week Ahead Forecast: Buoyant but Resistance Looms_1

Above: GBP/USD at daily intervals with Fibonacci retracements and selected moving averages highlighting possible areas of support. Click for closer inspection.

“The thesis for further upside in [GBP/USD] remains intact, with Sterling benefiting from the broader strength in the European FX complex we expect this year, as well as from the lower vulnerability of the UK economy to the US tariff shock. In light of the domestic risks though, we do not see a compelling case for positioning for sustained Sterling upside versus other European currencies for [now],” he adds.

The White House campaign against Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell, its tariff policy, the imperial optics around its trade dispute with China and the evolving response from Beijing all imply that any stabilisation of the Dollar might also be somewhat short-lived this week.

The greenback has come under broad pressure alongside US equity markets since the eruption of the trade conflict between Washington and Beijing, which has also placed the quasi-pegged Renminbi under strain, leading the ICE Dollar Index to its largest loss since November 2022 over the week heading into Passover.

“John Authers at Bloomberg just ran a piece titled ‘This Passover, Everyone Has Questions’. His annual tradition of asking four questions, as in that ancient ceremony, didn’t start with the obvious one: “Why is this market different from all other markets?” But when the 30-year Japanese bond can fall 11bps on the day, most traditional takes on what is going on look, well, ‘unleavened,’” says Michael Every, a global strategist at Rabobank, in market commentary last Wednesday.

Pound to Dollar Week Ahead Forecast: Buoyant but Resistance Looms_2

Above: GBP/USD at weekly intervals with Fibonacci retracements highlighting possible areas of technical resistance. Click for closer inspection.

“To the answer: this market is different from all other markets because in all other markets we assume there is one global economy within which all goods, services, and capital flow, with one single global reserve currency, the US dollar. Now, we might be witnessing an Exodus from it,” he adds.

The Dollar decline through the April 12 to 20 Holy Week has evoked use of Exodus as a metaphor for what appears to be happening with the currency. Exodus describes the escape of some of the earliest Israelites from Egypt in chapters 12 to 20 of the Old Testament book bearing the same name, a story in which Moses receives commandments and the details of a covenant while sojourning on a mountain.

Economists at TS Lombard have a different way of explaining the market rout, however, seeing instead a destruction of capital brought about through the impact they expect White House trade and tariff policy to have on the so-called supply capacity of the US economy and this might not be entirely an academic mythology.

This is because the tariffs will reduce the supply, or otherwise raise the cost, of necessary and desired things in the US for a time at least, which matters because demand and supply are akin to the debit and the credit of a transaction, the liability and the equity around an asset and perhaps also, the yang and ying, all of which make up alternate sides of what is effectively the same coin in each instance.

Source: Poundsterlinglive

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Warren Takunda

Economic

When the world’s finance ministers and central bank governors gather at the International Monetary Fund in Washington this week, it may kindle memories of another meeting, also held against the backdrop of a global economic crisis, in autumn 2008.

Then, as the aftershocks from the collapse of Lehman Brothers ripped through financial markets, central banks coordinated drastic emergency rate cuts, and the UK chancellor, Alistair Darling, urged his G7 counterparts to emulate the UK’s approach and shore up stricken banks.

Policy mistakes, including lax financial regulation, were partly to blame back in 2008 – but as this week’s IMF and World Bank spring meetings convene, the chaos confronting key decision-makers in the global economy has been entirely manufactured in the White House.

Donald Trump’s arbitrary “reciprocal” tariffs have been paused for 90 days, with many governments hoping they will never be reinstated. But the 10% across-the-board levy that remains in place – alongside eye-watering increases in tariffs on the US’s great geopolitical rival, China – still represents a historic shock to the global trading system.

UK government has declined to criticise the White House, negotiating furiously in the hope the tariffs will be lifted

The IMF, like just about every other credible economic forecaster, is likely to use its latest World Economic Outlook on Tuesday to warn of the hit to growth. The Fund’s managing director, Kristalina Georgieva, has already suggested the policy poses “a significant risk to the global outlook”.

Given the nature of the crisis, however, a united front, akin to that assembled in 2008, will be impossible.

Instead, different G7 economies are all trying to manage Trump’s administration in their own way. The UK government has declined to criticise the White House openly, and is clinging to the shreds of the “special relationship” – negotiating furiously in the hope the tariffs will be lifted.

The EU, facing a 20% levy if the full tariffs are reintroduced, plans to retaliate. Mark Carney, the former Bank of England governor now leading Canada, is taking an aggressive, “elbows up” approach, as he calls it, warning voters in the looming election that the relationship between the two nations is irrevocably damaged.

This cacophonous response is part of the chaos Trump appeared to relish unleashing when he brandished his tariffs scorecard in the White House rose garden earlier this month.

It is hard to imagine anything but the most anodyne statement being agreed by G7 finance ministers, a group that will include Trump’s treasury secretary, the former hedge fund manager Scott Bessent. As a foretaste of Bessent’s likely approach to his counterparts, he used a meeting with the Spanish economy minister, Carlos Cuerpo, to attack Madrid for failing to spend enough on defence.

And as central bankers consider the outlook for wobbly bond markets and the potential risks to financial stability, meanwhile the independence of Federal Reserve chair, Jay Powell, long a target of Trump’s criticism, appears less than secure. Given the importance of the dollar’s role, the Fed has previously been at the heart of efforts to safeguard the global financial system. It is unclear to what extent they would be ready to play the same role in a future crisis.

Gordon Brown, who was central to the global response to the 2008 crash, has called for a “coalition of the willing” to deepen trade ties between countries outside the US and protect the world’s poorest countries from the impact of the policy.

In the past, the G7 has sometimes been the locus for such collective action. But this week’s meeting is happening less than a mile from the White House, where Trump’s trade policy is continuing to evolve, one blustering press conference at a time.

Multilateral institutions, such as the IMF and its development-focused sister the World Bank, are also likely to be targets of the Trump administration’s determination to rip up the current world order, and cut funding for any institution that fails to put “America first”.

It remains to be seen whether any of the global policymakers assembling in Washington are willing to set out an alternative vision to Trump’s – but even if they don’t, the clash between the US and the rest of the world will be on clear display; and, as in 2008, the omens for the global economy look bleak.

Source: Theguardian

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Warren Takunda

Cryptocurrency

Bitcoin is eyeing new April highs as macro instability suddenly delivers a tailwind for BTC price performance.

Bitcoin is on the way up, nearing $88,000, but few market participants are willing to trust the strength of snap price moves.

A new macro week dawns in the shadow of the US trade war, with Federal Reserve speakers lining up to take to the stage.

Gold is shattering all-time highs again, but this time Bitcoin is starting to react.

US dollar weakness exhibits historic traits as three-year lows spark bullish predictions for Bitcoin and commodities.

The newest BTC hodlers are already profiting from the latest move, but speculators are waiting for a reclaimation of $91,000.

BTC price spike met with skepticism

Bitcoin is starting the week off right with a 3% rise on the back of fresh macroeconomic turmoil amid the US-China trade war.

BTC/USD reached $87,705 after the April 20 weekly close, data from Cointelegraph Markets Pro and TradingView shows, its highest in nearly three weeks. US Dollar Goes 'No-Bid' — 5 Things to Know in Bitcoin This Week_1

US Dollar Goes 'No-Bid' — 5 Things to Know in Bitcoin This Week_1

BTC/USD 1-hour chart. Source: Cointelegraph/TradingView

Reacting, however, traders have been cautious, highlighting the unreliable nature of volatile moves that begin during non-TradFi trading hours on weekends.

“Nice breakout, but it’s on low volume,” trading resource Stockmoney Lizards wrote in part of a response on X.

“WIll definitely need confirmation. In any case, you shouldn't be too euphoric yet.” US Dollar Goes 'No-Bid' — 5 Things to Know in Bitcoin This Week_2

Fellow trading account IncomeSharks shared similar views, saying that BTC price strength must continue in the face of weak equities.

“Nice to see the downtrend breakout but the timing is important,” it said.

“Sunday is not a day to celebrate a low volume pump while stock markets are closed. If you want to see a bullish moves lets see stocks open red tomorrow and keep this candle green. Then we can have fun.”

BTC/USD 1-day chart. Source: IncomeSharks/X

Crypto trader, analyst and entrepreneur Michaël van de Poppe continued the lukewarm reaction to the upside on both Bitcoin and gold, predicting that they “probably will give it back.”

“Needs to get above $88,804 to break the series of lower highs and lower lows,” trader, analyst and podcast host Scott Melker, known as the “Wolf of All Streets,” added.

“Is it time?”

Fed policy in spotlight as officials speak

The coming days will see the Federal Reserve take the spotlight as senior officials comment on the current macroeconomic landscape.

A total of eight Federal Reserve presidents will shed fresh light on what is an increasingly contentious status quo for the US, with the Fed at odds with demands from President Donald Trump.

Last week, Trump even called for Fed Chair Jerome Powell to be fired, a move that sparked concerns over US economic stability.

Powell has repeatedly come out hawkish on financial policy, hinting at being in no rush to lower interest rates as Trump’s trade war fuels inflation concerns.

The latest data from CME Group’s FedWatch Tool reflects this, with traders seeing a rate cut likely only at the Fed’s June meeting. US Dollar Goes 'No-Bid' — 5 Things to Know in Bitcoin This Week_4

US Dollar Goes 'No-Bid' — 5 Things to Know in Bitcoin This Week_4

Fed target rate probabilities for June FOMC meeting. Source: CME Group

With little by way of new macro data due for release, however, markets will continue to focus on the trade war itself, along with the volatility it often creates.

The start of the week has been no exception so far; China issuing warnings over collaboration with the US to isolate it immediately sent stock futures tumbling while gold soared to new all-time highs.

Bitcoin, in a break with recent tradition, managed to copy gold’s optimism instead of following equities lower.

“Gold has hit its 55th all-time high in 12 months and Bitcoin is officially joining the run, now above $87,000,” trading resource The Kobeissi Letter responded in part of an X post on the topic.

“The narrative in both Gold and Bitcoin is aligning for the first time in years: Gold and Bitcoin are telling us that a weaker US Dollar and more uncertainty are on the way.”

Gold nears record $3,400 on trade war fears

Gold remains the standout bullish story for 2025.

Amid the uncertainty wrought by the trade war and its potential long-term impact on inflation and global assets, XAU/USD has exploded nearly 30% year-to-date.

The pair is currently circling a record $3,400 per ounce, and while some have warned that a “blow-off top” is due, momentum refuses to slow down. US Dollar Goes 'No-Bid' — 5 Things to Know in Bitcoin This Week_5

US Dollar Goes 'No-Bid' — 5 Things to Know in Bitcoin This Week_5

XAU/USD 1-day chart. Source: Cointelegraph/TradingView

Kobeissi suggested that Trump’s latest trade-war post on social media, in the form of a “non-tariff cheating” sheet, helped reignite gold’s relentless march higher.

“President Trump’s ‘non-tariff cheating’ list is arguably one of the best things to happen to gold all year,” it argued.

“Gold knows what's coming next.”

Kobeissi revealed that gold had, in fact, outperformed the S&P 500 since the COVID-19 cross-market crash in March 2020.

For Bitcoin, however, change appears to be afoot. As Cointelegraph reported, BTC/USD has finally begun to mimic gold’s reaction to macro uncertainty after spending months in a downtrend.

As that downtrend is slowly left behind, talk is turning to historical precedent. In the past, Bitcoin breakouts have lagged gold by around three months.

“After futures opened it didn’t take long for $BTC and $GOLD to move up quickly as equities moved down,” trader Daan Crypto Trades told X followers.

“Pretty interesting move which is now compounding on the relative strength BTC has already been showing for weeks.”

BTC/USD vs. XAU/USD 1-day chart. Source: Cointelegraph/TradingView

Dollar strength plumbs new 3-year lows

Adding to the mix is fresh US dollar weakness, something that hedge fund creator Andreas Steno Larsen described as a “good early sign for Bitcoin.”

“We ain’t seen nothing yet, if this continues (and if Powell is laid off),” he argued on X alongside a chart of BTC versus USD returns. US Dollar Goes 'No-Bid' — 5 Things to Know in Bitcoin This Week_7

US Dollar Goes 'No-Bid' — 5 Things to Know in Bitcoin This Week_7

Bitcoin vs. USD returns. Source: Andreas Steno/X

The US Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks greenback strength against a basket of major US trading partner currencies, was down another 1.3% on April 21 at the time of writing. This, in turn, brought the year-to-date downside to nearly 10%.

Now at its lowest levels since March 2022, DXY is being heralded as the powder keg to spark a giant bull run in both Bitcoin and commodities.

“The US Dollar has gone ‘no bid,’ teetering on a historic 14-yr uptrend breakdown from 2011,” trading resource Rock Bottom Entries told X followers.

“Forget 2016 & 2020—this will ignite a 2000s-style commodity supercycle.”

US Dollar Index (DXY) 1-month chart. Source: Cointelegraph/TradingView

Bitcoin traditionally outperforms to the upside during periods of rapid DXY suppression, an inverse correlation that has been lacking in recent times.

“Contrary to what you hear on social media, Bitcoin has been in lockstep with DXY for a couple of years,” analyst Joe Dean thus commented on the phenomenon.

“DXY overshot to the upside, then the downside, and will likely find its way back to the mean. $BTC will likely follow.”

US dollar index (DXY) vs. BTC/USD chart. Source: Joe Dean/X

Bitcoin newbies back in the black

Short-term BTC price moves are already making a tangible difference to certain Bitcoin investor cohorts.

New research from onchain analytics platform CryptoQuant reveals that even a tap of $87,000 has placed the most recent set of buyers in the black, with an average 3.7% profit.

“This is a short-term bullish signal, showing renewed confidence and reduced panic risk among the newest market entrants,” CryptoQuant contributor Crazzyblockk wrote in one of its “Quicktake” blog posts.

The move comes in contrast to the large short-term holder (STH) cohort, comprised of buyers up to six months old, which has an aggregate cost basis of $91,000.

As Cointelegraph reported, STH cost bases can act as both support and resistance for extended periods as speculative hodlers react to sudden price swings.

“Until BTC closes above the $91K threshold, Short-Term Holders remain in loss. This may sustain latent sell pressure, especially if price momentum weakens — reinforcing the importance of a decisive breakout above STH realized price to neutralize this overhang,” CryptoQuant added. US Dollar Goes 'No-Bid' — 5 Things to Know in Bitcoin This Week_10

US Dollar Goes 'No-Bid' — 5 Things to Know in Bitcoin This Week_10

Bitcoin STH profitability (screenshot). Source: CryptoQuant

Source: Cointelegraph

Risk Warnings and Disclaimers

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Michelle

Economic

Forex

The EUR/USD pair surged to a fresh three-year peak on Monday, holding steady at 1.1518 amid growing unease over US economic policy.

Key Drivers Behind the EUR/USD Rally

Investors returning from the Easter break were met with renewed concerns over the US White House’s stance on the Federal Reserve and its Chair, Jerome Powell. Questions surrounding the Fed’s independence have unsettled markets, particularly after Donald Trump ramped up his criticism of Powell.

While the US President has previously threatened to dismiss Powell, legal and institutional barriers make such a move difficult. Nevertheless, Trump’s rhetoric has grown increasingly aggressive, as he pushes for swifter interest rate cuts and greater monetary policy flexibility. The Fed, however, remains caught between taming inflation and navigating a robust labour market—a delicate balancing act that has only heightened market anxiety.

These tensions compound existing worries over escalating trade conflicts and broader uncertainty surrounding the Trump administration’s economic policies. Over the weekend, Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee added to the unease, warning that US tariffs could dampen economic activity by summer.

Technical Analysis: EUR/USD

H4 Chart Outlook

The pair previously consolidated around 1.1333 before breaking upward.
After finding support at 1.1390, it formed a bullish wave towards 1.1530.
A downward correction towards 1.1390 is now anticipated. A break below this level could extend losses to 1.1245.
The MACD indicator supports this view, with its signal line above zero but pointing sharply downward.

H1 Chart Outlook

The market briefly consolidated near 1.1390 before rallying to 1.1530.
A pullback towards 1.1390 is now in focus, with a breakdown potentially opening the door to 1.1245.
The Stochastic oscillator aligns with this scenario, hovering above 80 and poised for a decline towards 20.

Conclusion

The EUR/USD rally reflects mounting scepticism towards US policy stability, with technical indicators now hinting at a potential retracement. Traders will be watching closely for further Fed commentary and political developments that could sway the pair’s trajectory.

Source: ACTIONFOREX

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Dark Current

Commodity

Energy

Oil prices fell by more than 1.5 per cent on Monday on concerns that tariffs levied by the US on its partners could create economic headwinds and dent demand for oil in global markets.

Brent, the benchmark for two thirds of the world's oil, slid 1.63 per cent to $66.85 a barrel at 9.23am UAE time on Monday. West Texas Intermediate, the gauge that tracks US crude, was down 1.7 per cent to $63.58 per barrel.

US President Donald Trump announced sweeping tariffs on its trade partners, raising concerns that global economy could slowdown and impact oil markets.

The International Monetary Fund in January projected the global economy to expand by 3.3 per cent this year, with the US economy set to grow by 2.7 per cent.

The IMF, however, is expected to lower global economic growth when it releases its World Economic Outlook on Tuesday.

“Our new growth projections will include notable markdowns, but not recession,” IMF managing director Kristalina Georgieva, said last week.

“As market focus reverts to the economic impact of Trump’s tariffs, especially with the World Bank and IMF meetings in Washington this week, I expect the souring global growth outlook and sluggish oil demand sentiment will be back centrestage, weighing on crude,” Vandana Hari, chief executive of Singapore-based Vanda Insights told The National.

Investors are also keeping a close eye on developments related to the US and Iran talks.

Talks between Iran and the US on Tehran's nuclear programme are gaining momentum, with the “unlikely now possible” following progress this weekend in Rome, according to mediators.

The second round of negotiations led by Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi and US envoy to the Middle East Steve Witkoff ended on a positive note in the Italian city during the weekend. The Oman-brokered talks lasted for four hours and officials declared it a “good meeting” that yielded progress.

“These talks are gaining momentum and now even the unlikely is possible,” Omani Foreign Minister Badr Al Busaidi said on X.

Oman’s Foreign Ministry said the talks resulted in an agreement to move towards the next phase of negotiations aimed at sealing “a fair, enduring and binding deal”.

If a deal is struck between the two countries, it could ease some supply concerns if sanctions relief is provided for Iran.

Last week, the US imposed new sanctions on Iran to curb its exports, including against a “teapot” refinery – or small independent oil refiner – based in China.

“The fact that the two sides have now concluded two fruitful rounds of nuclear negotiations over the past fortnight is the bigger development on the Iran front, and at this point, mildly bearish,” Ms Hari said.

Oil prices settled more than 3 per cent higher on Thursday, posting the first weekly gain in three weeks on hopes of a potential trade deal between the US and the EU and new sanctions on Iran's oil exports.

Source: THENATIONALNEWS

Risk Warnings and Disclaimers

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Warren Takunda

Economic

It will be a shortened trading week for financial markets due to Easter holidays in Europe and the United States. While risk-aversion sentiment may continue to influence global market movements, key economic data, including manufacturing and services Purchasing Managers’ Indices (PMIs), and major corporate earnings are expected to play a critical role in shaping future market trends.

S&P Global is scheduled to release its flash manufacturing and services PMIs for April across major economies on Wednesday. These indices measure business activity based on new orders, employment, and confidence. A reading above 50 indicates expansion, while a figure below 50 signals contraction.

Europe

In March, the eurozone’s manufacturing PMI improved to 48.6 from 47.6 in February, marking the mildest contraction since January 2023. Germany and France both recorded notable improvements in manufacturing activity. Germany’s PMI rose to 48.3 from 46.5—the highest since August 2022—while France’s reading came in at 48.5, reflecting the softest downturn in over two years. However, “concerns over geopolitical uncertainty and client spending kept optimism in check,” according to the S&P Global report.

Consensus forecasts suggest that business activity may slow in April due to tariff-related economic uncertainty. The eurozone’s manufacturing PMI is expected to drop to 47.4, with Germany and France forecast to record 47.5 and 47.9, respectively.

The eurozone’s services PMI expanded for the fourth consecutive month in March, with a reading of 51.0, up from 50.6 in February. Germany’s services PMI also posted its fourth consecutive month of expansion, at 50.9. However, the pace of growth slowed as new business declined at the fastest rate in six months amid weak demand and heightened uncertainty. Optimism persisted, driven by Germany’s fiscal expansion, new product launches, and technological progress. In contrast, France’s services sector contracted for the seventh consecutive month, reflecting continued weak demand.

Consensus projections suggest further, albeit softer, growth in April. The eurozone’s services PMI is forecast at 50.4, with Germany and France expected to record 50.3 and 47.6, respectively.

Additionally, Germany’s Ifo Business Climate Index—a leading indicator of economic health—is due on Thursday. The index rose to 86.7 in March, the highest level since July 2023, supported by historic debt reforms that unlocked billions in funding for defence and infrastructure. However, the index is expected to edge lower this month, likely due to the impact of Trump’s newly announced tariffs.

United Kingdom

In the UK, the S&P Global manufacturing PMI fell to 44.9 in March, extending its downturn for a sixth consecutive month and marking the lowest reading in 17 months. Business confidence dropped to a two-and-a-half-year low amid expectations of tighter fiscal policy, tariff uncertainty, and geopolitical tensions. April’s reading is forecast to decline further to 44.0.

In the services sector, the index was revised up to 52.5 in March from the preliminary estimate of 53.2, the highest since August 2024. However, constrained household budgets and geopolitical tensions are expected to continue weighing on business sentiment. The services PMI is projected to ease to 51.4 in April.

United States

In the US, the manufacturing PMI fell sharply to 50.2 in March from 52.7 in February. The decline was largely attributed to a pullback from February’s front-loaded output surge. Nevertheless, business confidence weakened to its lowest level since December 2024 amid uncertainty surrounding government policies.

In contrast, the services PMI rose to 54.4 in March, the highest level in 2025. Despite the strong reading, business optimism declined, weighed down by concerns over tariff-related disruptions and federal cost-cutting initiatives. Analysts anticipate that manufacturing will return to contraction in April, with a projected reading of 49.3, while the services index is expected to fall to 52.9.

Big tech earnings in focus

Crucially, this week will also see first-quarter earnings releases from major US technology firms, including Tesla, Microsoft, and Alphabet. These companies, particularly Tesla, have seen their shares come under pressure amid fears that Trump’s tariffs could disrupt supply chains and key international markets.

Analysts expect Tesla’s revenue for the first quarter to grow by 2.6% year-on-year. However, earnings per share are forecast to decline due to factory retools for the new Model Y SUVs and a slowdown in sales due to Elon’s political intervention.