Gold is set for its Best Year Since Jimmy Carter was President

Commodity

Summary:

Gold is considered a resilient investment, with investors expecting the yellow metal will retain its value in crisis, if inflation surges, or if currencies drop in value.

Gold futures traded in New York have soared almost 71% this year, on pace for their best annual gain in 46 years. The last time gold had such a strong year, Jimmy Carter was president, a crisis was unfolding in the Middle East, inflation was soaring and the United States was in the midst of an energy crisis.

Today, tariffs are distorting international trade, conflict is raging with Russia’s war on Ukraine, there have been flare-ups between Israel and Iran and the US is seizing oil tankers off the coast of Venezuela. In times of uncertainty, investors turn to safe havens like gold.

Gold is considered a resilient investment, with investors expecting the yellow metal will retain its value in crisis, if inflation surges, or if currencies drop in value.

“Uncertainty remains a defining feature of the global economy,” said Joe Cavatoni, senior market strategist at the World Gold Council. “In this environment, gold has become increasingly appealing as a strategic diversifier and a source of stability.”

For some investors, gold’s flaw is that it does not pay income like bonds. But when the Federal Reserve cuts interest rates as it’s been doing over the past few months, bond yields tend to fall, making gold more appealing.

Gold futures traded around $2,640 a troy ounce at the start of this year. The yellow metal climbed above a record high $4,500 a troy ounce on Monday. Analysts at JPMorgan Chase expect prices to rise above $5,000 a troy ounce in 2026.

Gold’s increase of 71% this year has far outpaced the S&P 500, which has risen by just 18%. In 2024, gold futures gained 27% while the S&P rose by 24%.

Expectations for some Fed rate cuts in 2026 are supporting gold’s rise. A weaker US dollar is helping boost the price, too, as it makes buying gold relatively more affordable for international investors.

Gold jewelers and people who own gold jewelry are benefiting from higher prices. And the gold rush isn’t just fueled by Americans snapping up gold bars from Costco — it’s countries buying gold by the ton.

Central banks and geopolitics

Gold’s rise has been underpinned by central banks buying up more gold themselves, led by China.

One of the main reasons China’s central bank is increasing its gold holdings is to decrease reliance on American assets like US Treasury bonds and the dollar, according to Ulf Lindahl, CEO at Currency Research Associates.

The shift became noticeable after Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in 2022. Western governments moved to freeze Russian assets denominated in US dollars, prompting governments in Russia — as well as China — to look for ways to decrease exposure to American policy decisions, Lindahl said.

“The current wave of central-bank buying is different precisely because it is rooted in geopolitics,” Ole Hansen, head of commodity strategy at Saxo Bank, said in a note. “The freezing of sovereign reserves and the broader fragmentation of the global financial system have introduced a structural element to gold demand that is likely to persist for years.”

Central banks around the globe have accumulated over 1,000 tons of gold in each of the last three years, compared with an average of 400 to 500 tons per year across the previous decade, according to the World Gold Council.

Precious metals shine in 2025

Gold’s ascent has been followed by other precious metals such as silver, platinum and palladium.

Silver futures have soared a whopping 146% this year, while platinum futures have gained almost 150% and palladium futures have gained 100%.

For investors, precious metals serve as “a hedge against an increasingly uncertain world,” according to Hakan Kaya, portfolio manager at Neuberger Berman.

That trend could continue. Lindahl at Currency Research Associates said he expects gold to keep rising in 2026. With central banks increasing their gold reserves, it can leave less bullion circulating in the market. Increased demand from regular investors coupled with less available supply could lead to higher prices.

Also helping boost demand for precious metals: concerns about enormous government deficits and debt burdens, according to Matt Maley, chief market strategist at Miller Tabak + Co.

“As investors have become more cognizant of these issues, they have been looking toward gold as a safe haven,” Maley said.

Source: CNN

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Manuel

Cryptocurrency

Political

The escalating power of artificial intelligence and emerging quantum capabilities is poised to reshape global security, regulation and market design in 2026, according to leading figures across the blockchain and AI sectors.

Speaking with Yellow.com, experts points toward a structural shift where governments, enterprises and financial markets will increasingly depend on blockchain-based infrastructure, not for hype-driven adoption, but to withstand the next era of computational threats.

Across industry, concerns are mounting that AI systems and quantum tools have outpaced traditional cyber-defense models.

Blockchain To Become A National-Security Priority

As enterprises accelerate deployment of AI-driven automation, and as prediction markets, business platforms and data ecosystems grow more agent-native, the need for verifiable computation, tamper-proof data, and transparent system design is becoming unavoidable.

Shiv Shankar, CEO of Boundless, says the turning point is already here, describing the landscape as a “sword and shield” conflict in which AI and quantum computing act as offensive capabilities, while blockchain and zero-knowledge cryptography provide defensive guarantees.

“AI and quantum computing are the sword… Blockchain and zero-knowledge cryptography are the shield.”

He argues that tamper-proof ledgers and verifiable computation will become national-level infrastructure because “any manipulation is immediately detectable," he said.

That shift dovetails with a broader transition in how enterprises interact with AI tools.

AI To Reshape Enterprise Workflows And Regulatory Demands

Rather than relying solely on general-purpose chat interfaces, companies are expected to move towards orchestrator systems, AI agents that can set tasks, run workflows, and carry out continuous actions across internal and external environments.

Also Read: Dogecoin After The Election Surge: What Went Wrong With The $1 Thesis

Titus Capilnean, VP of Go-to-Market at Civic, notes that rising complexity around automation, personalization and compliance will force businesses to adopt explainable AI systems, verifiable models, and identity-backed agent interactions.

He says the next phase of AI adoption will require “memory, personalization, and orchestrators,” alongside privacy-preserving tools like passkeys and zero-knowledge proofs.

Prediction Markets Enter A Fully Agent-Driven Phase

Prediction platforms, once dependent on human liquidity, are beginning to integrate fully autonomous agent economies.

David Minarsch of Olas says the key unlock is not simply better forecasting models, but the ability for agents to run the full lifecycle of prediction markets, creating markets, sourcing information, trading, and resolving outcomes.

That agent-native structure, he argues, allows prediction markets to scale to any question where incentives matter.

At the same time, he warns that trust must be “engineered into the mechanism,” as recent governance failures in crypto prediction markets show that volume alone doesn’t guarantee reliability.

Meanwhile, user attention is concentrating around breakout platforms.

Yu Hu, CEO of Kaito AI, says 2025 revealed an important pattern: even during a market downturn, sectors like perpetual DEXs and prediction markets saw explosive growth.

He points to Polymarket as a leading example heading into 2026, supported by on-chain rails and mainstream user engagement.

Source: YellowNews

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Manuel

Political

Nasry Asfura, the conservative National Party candidate backed by U.S. President Donald Trump, has won Honduras' presidential election, the electoral body said on Wednesday as it finally declared a victor of the November 30 presidential election after weeks of delays, technical problems, and allegations of fraud.

The electoral authority, known as the CNE, said Asfura had won 40.3% of the vote, edging out center-right Liberal Party candidate Salvador Nasralla who garnered 39.5%. The candidate of the ruling LIBRE party, Rixi Moncada, came a distant third.

Results were so tight and the ballot processing system so chaotic that around 15% of the tally sheets comprising hundreds of thousands of ballots had to be counted by hand to determine the winner.

The results were approved by two electoral council members and one deputy, as disputes continued over the razor-thin vote. The third council member, Marlon Ochoa, was not present in the video declaring the winner.

"Honduras: I am ready to govern. I will not let you down," Asfura said in a post on X following the confirmation of the results.

The head of the Honduran Congress rejected the CNE's declaration, however, describing it as an "electoral coup".

"This is completely outside the law. It has no value," Congress president Luis Redondo, of the ruling LIBRE party, wrote on X.

Trump threw his support behind Asfura, a 67-year-old politician and businessman who is the former mayor of the capital Tegucigalpa, writing in a Truth Social post before the election that he was the "only real friend of Freedom in Honduras" and urging people to vote for him.

Trump also threatened to cut off U.S. financial support to Honduras if Asfura did not win and pardoned former President Juan Orlando Hernandez, also of Asfura's National Party, who had been serving a 45-year sentence in the U.S. on drug trafficking and weapons charges.

Amid delays in the count, Trump weighed into the election again alleging fraud without providing evidence and saying there would be "hell to pay" if Honduras changed preliminary results that had put Asfura ahead.

Trump's backing of Asfura, experts say, is part of his push to mold a conservative bloc across Latin America, stretching from Nayib Bukele in El Salvador to Javier Milei in Argentina.

Both Nasralla and the ruling LIBRE party have decried Trump's comments as election meddling.

Nasralla told Reuters that the last-minute interference from Trump had damaged his chances of winning.

Source: Reuters

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Manuel

Political

Energy

The US government is extending an emergency trucking waiver in the Northeast as winter weather and a power outage at a major industrial plant tighten propane supplies. More states were also added to the measure.

The Federal Motor Carrier Safety Administration on Tuesday extended an emergency declaration, originally set to expire midnight Friday, through Jan. 15. The measure waives regulations on how long drivers can be at the wheel without rest as they distribute heating fuels to thousands of customers in the Northeast.

The waiver is aimed at making sure enough fuel is being transported to fill any gaps, with sufficient inventories helping to provide a cushion amid the plant disruption. The declaration applies to propane, natural gas and heating oil. While just a minority of houses in the Northeast rely on these fuels for residential heating, cold weather in the forecast means it’s critical to keep supplies flowing.

The declaration was first issued Dec. 12 and applied to New York, New Jersey, Delaware and Pennsylvania. The expanded order now also waives trucking restrictions in Connecticut, Maryland, Massachusetts, New Hampshire and West Virginia.

The issue stems from a Nov. 19 electrical incident at a transformer at Energy Transfer LP’s Marcus Hook terminal in Pennsylvania. The outage disabled the facility’s ability to load propane on trucks for three days and led the company to declare force majeure, according to a statement from the National Propane Gas Association.

Energy Transfer customers were placed on allocation, meaning they could only collect a portion of their contracted purchases, and were receiving 70% of their loads, the association said.

Energy Transfer hasn’t responded to multiple requests for comment since states began issuing emergency trucking waivers in early December.

So far, fuel stockpiles and the ability for distributors to source propane from other plants have minimized the impact on consumers and prices.

Propane inventories on the East Coast are in line with prior-year levels, and retail prices in the region are up about 5 cents since the outage began according to US Energy Information Administration data.

Moderate weather during the Christmas holiday on the Eastern Seaboard will be swiftly followed by two cold shots — one on Dec. 26, and then into next week, said Sean Bratton, a meteorologist for Commodity Weather Group. A blast of cold air from Alberta will swoop down into the US Northeast on Friday and push down into the Mid-Atlantic states. The Tri-State area could see 2 to 5 inches (5 to 13 centimeters) of snow, with some areas potentially seeing even heavier bands dropping as much as 6 inches.

Source: Bloomberg

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Manuel

Forex

Economic

The Canadian dollar strengthened to a near five-month high against its U.S. counterpart on Wednesday as recent strength in commodity prices helped support the currency, offsetting preliminary domestic data that showed a steep decline last month for factory sales.

The loonie was trading 0.1% higher at 1.3672 per U.S. dollar, or 73.14 U.S. cents, after touching its strongest intraday level since July 25 at 1.3666.

"The broader softening in the USD over the past month has helped lift the CAD but narrower US/Canada spreads, positive economic data surprises - relative to US economic data outcomes - and recent gains in commodity prices are all helping lift CAD sentiment," Shaun Osborne and Eric Theoret, strategists at Scotiabank, said in a note.

The price of oil, one of Canada's major exports, edged higher for a sixth straight day as investors weighed the risk of supply disruptions from Venezuela and Russia. U.S. crude futures were up 0.1% at $58.43 a barrel.

The gap between Canada's 2-year yield and its U.S. equivalent has narrowed to 94 basis points in favor of the U.S. note from 120 basis points at the end of October, reducing the relative attractiveness of the U.S. currency.

Minutes released on Tuesday of the Bank of Canada's latest interest rate decision on December 10 showed that policymakers found it hard to predict whether the central bank's next move would be a hike or cut.

Domestic data added to recent evidence that has pointed to an economic slowdown in the current quarter after a stronger-than-expected increase in third-quarter GDP. According to a preliminary estimate, factory sales fell 1.1% in November from October on decreases in the transportation equipment and food subsectors.

Canadian bond yields edged lower across the curve, with the 10-year down 1 basis point at 3.408%. The bond market was set to close early ahead of the Christmas Day and Boxing Day holidays.

Source: Reuters

To stay updated on all economic events of today, please check out our Economic calendar

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Adam

Commodity

It’s been quite a year for Apple (AAPL). The company reported record revenue on the back of strong iPhone sales. Its Services business continued its impressive growth, hitting $109.2 billion in sales. And its market capitalization topped $4 trillion, joining Nvidia (NVDA) as just the second company to reach the milestone.

But the company is also contending with major changes amid its executive ranks. CFO Jeff Williams retired — he was previously considered the top choice to take up the mantle of CEO after Tim Cook eventually steps down.

Head of government affairs Lisa Jackson and general counsel Kate Adams are retiring in late January and late 2026, respectively.

And then there's AI chief John Giannandrea and design vice president Alan Dye. Giannandrea is retiring and turning Apple's AI efforts over to Amar Subramanya, who previously worked on AI initiatives at Google (GOOGL, GOOG) and Microsoft (MSFT).

Dye, meanwhile, left Apple to lead Meta (META) Reality Labs' new design studio.

All of this comes as Cook is reportedly preparing senior vice president of hardware engineering John Ternus to take over as CEO when he departs.

It all adds up to an Apple in flux as it transforms itself for a post-Cook era. According to the Financial Times, Cook could step down as soon as early 2026. Bloomberg's Mark Gurman, meanwhile, said there’s still no firm timeline for when Cook will leave his post.

Regardless of exact timing, Apple will eventually have to say goodbye to Cook, and 2025 helped the company set itself up for its biggest change in years.

Apple stock edged lower during premarket trading on Wednesday.

Cook is steering a $4 trillion behemoth

Cook, who joined Apple in 1998, took over as CEO 14 years ago following the death of founder Steve Jobs. Jobs turned around an ailing Apple when he returned to the company in 1997 after being fired in 1985. He subsequently released a string of groundbreaking products, including the iPod and iPhone, which continues to bring in the majority of Apple's revenue.

Cook has carried that success forward during his time at the company's helm, overseeing the debut of the Apple Watch and AirPods, as well as the explosion of Apple's Services business. He has also pushed Apple to use its own chips in its products, giving the company more control over the design and functionality of its devices.

That, coupled with Cook's deft abilities as a negotiator, helped Apple weather a series of crises, including showdowns with the US Department of Justice, the COVID-19 pandemic, and President Trump's ongoing trade war with China. Trump eventually exempted smartphones and certain other tech products from his tariffs on Chinese goods.

Cook's decisions drove Apple's stock price ever higher. As a result, the company's market cap has increased from $1 trillion in 2018 to a whopping $4 trillion in 2025.

Revenue has also continued its steady upward pace, with Apple reporting $416 billion in total sales for its fiscal 2025, up from $391 billion in the prior year.

Apple is also reportedly preparing some of the biggest changes in years to its iPhone lineup in 2026. According to Gurman, the company will roll out a foldable iPhone, a first for Apple, in the latter half of the year.

That could help further goose already record iPhone sales. Apple is also reportedly preparing a new low-cost MacBook model, which would open up the company to a broader customer segment.

And while it may not have the same margins as a high-powered MacBook Pro, a lower-cost MacBook could still help draw more customers to Apple's services, driving increased revenue over the long run.

New challenges ahead

If Ternus is chosen to succeed Cook, he'll inherit an Apple at the peak of its power. While smartphone sales have slowed over time, the company is reaping the benefits of its massive install base, which still upgrades devices every few years and increasingly subscribes to Apple's various services.

But he'll also have to navigate his share of headaches. Wall Street is eagerly awaiting some kind of movement on Apple's AI strategy. And though the company is making progress on its AI rollout, it still needs to showcase its next-generation version of Siri.

He'll also have to prepare to take on the likes of Meta, Google, and Samsung (005930.KS) in the smart glasses space. Meta already has two smart glasses on the market, and Google and Samsung are each working on their own intelligent eyewear.

For now, though, Cook is still Apple's CEO. We'll just have to see if that changes in 2026.

Source: finance.yahoo

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Adam

Commodity

On Monday night, copper prices, as shown below, reached an all-time high of over $12,000 per metric ton. Copper is often referred to as “Doctor Copper” because it serves as a barometer of global economic activity. However, the current surge in prices is not due to sharply rising demand; tariffs and physical dislocation are heavily impacting the supply side. The bullet points below help appreciate why copper is hitting all-time highs.

Traders are front-running U.S. tariff policy, bringing the metal into the U.S. ahead of potential tariffs. This has distorted global trade flows, tightening inventories elsewhere, and creating artificial scarcity.

The scarcity is enhanced by inventory stockpiling, not end-user consumption.

Adding to supply woes, copper mine disruptions, declining ore grades, and years of underinvestment limit miners’ ability to meet growing demand quickly.

Copper trades on the futures exchanges. Accordingly, it is leveraged and traded by speculative momentum traders. As we are witnessing with silver, speculative traders make a living chasing trends.

Because the price increase is primarily supply-related, if tariff threats fade and trade routes normalize, excess inventories could quickly hit the market, causing speculative trades to unwind. In such an instance, copper prices could fall just as fast as they have risen.

Why Are Copper Prices Surging to All-Time Highs?_1

Watch The Yen In 2026

As we share below, the yen is again approaching its lowest levels against the dollar since at least 1995. We circle the sharp, short-term increase in the yen occurring in August 2024. This was the market swoon related to the supposed liquidation of the yen carry trade. It is rumored that tens of billions of dollars are propping up US assets, supported by loans made in Japan through the yen carry trade. The relatively low Japanese borrowing rates and a declining yen make such a trade highly attractive to hedge funds and other institutional money managers. Moreover, Japanese citizens and corporations, facing low interest rates, are incentivized to invest their money abroad. By doing so, they can profit from high-yielding assets they cannot access at home and from a depreciating yen.

The depreciating yen fortifies the yen carry trade. However, looking ahead, there are growing rumors that Japan will intervene to support the yen. Japan heavily depends on energy and materials imports. A depreciating yen makes these goods more expensive. As a result, per Bloomberg:

The resulting cost-of-living crunch helped bring down two prime ministers before the current leader, Sanae Takaichi, took office.

Given the domestic economic and political situation, along with pressure from the US, we should expect the Japanese government to take steps to strengthen the yen. If an upward adjustment is done gradually, the impact on financial markets should be minimal. However, if it occurs suddenly, such as in August 2024, volatility could spike. Stay aware of this risk in 2026!