Gold: Bulls Are Still Swinging but the Ceiling Isn’t Giving Up Easily

Commodity

Summary:

Gold remains bullish but faces strong resistance near October highs. Buyers are retrying above the rising wedge, with 4400–4406 key; a hold supports new highs, failure signals consolidation.

With higher-timeframe resistance directly overhead, today is all about whether buyers can finally break through or whether we set up for another reset.

Daily Chart: Rejection… but Not Defeat

Even though bulls managed to break above the upper border of the black rising wedge, the proximity of the October highs, combined with two bearish engulfing patterns, proved too heavy on Friday. Price pulled back and closed the day (and the entire week) back inside the wedge.

What does that mean?

Momentum is there, but conviction isn’t yet strong enough to take out major resistance. The market hesitated, however, not reversed.

But today, buyers refused to stay defensive. Gold climbed back above the wedge, signaling that another attempt to challenge the resistance zone is underway, which means Friday’s upside targets remain in play:

If gold manages to hold above the upper border of the black rising wedge on the daily chart, the odds increase for an attack on October highs and potentially a new all-time high.

From a target perspective:

First target: upper border of the green rising channel on H4, currently crossing above 4400

Second target: 4415 -> the 161.8% Fibonacci extension of the November 13-18 move

Above that? The psychological 4500 level enters the conversation

H4: Target Hit, Reaction Delivered

As we wrote in the last Lab Note:

“That breakout opened the door toward 4380, where the upside move equals the height of the triangle.”

Not only did gold reach that level, but it also printed a daily high at 4387. Huge congratulations to traders who caught that move. Clean structure, clean breakout, clean follow-through. Exactly what we want to see.

That rally, combined with the cluster of resistance discussed in the daily section, attracted sellers. The correction dragged gold back toward the December 5th high – the top of the double-bottom formation we mentioned on Thursday (Lab Note #38).

Bulls stepped in again, and we’re now trading right back near Friday’s peak.

Indicators remain overbought, but without any confirmed sell signals yet. In strong trends, overbought is a condition, not a command. The burden is still on sellers to prove themselves.

Worth noting on H4:

The upper boundary of the green rising channel now sits around 4406, making it the first area to watch closely if gold pushes through 4400.

Lab Takeaway: What Matters Today

Gold keeps coming back for another try, and that alone tells us plenty. This is not a market to short purely because it “feels extended,” but it’s also not a market to chase blindly into multi-layer resistance.

Today’s job is simple:

– let price show whether it can hold above the wedge– watch how buyers behave in the 4400-4406 area– respect momentum, but don’t ignore location:

If bulls can absorb selling pressure above 4400, upside targets remain active

If they can’t, the market will reset and give a cleaner opportunity later

Patience here isn’t passive… it’s strategic.

Stay sharp and let the daily candles speak.

Source: fxempire

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Adam

Commodity

Gold prices were hovering below the $4,400-per-ounce mark as safe-haven buying increased, while the dollar slipped against major currencies.

Silver prices on COMEX also rose more than 3% on Monday, with the metal shy of Friday’s record high.

Meanwhile, oil prices were in the red as a potential peace deal between Russia and Ukraine weighed on sentiment.

Gold climbs 1%

The price of gold rose by 1% on Monday, settling near a seven-week peak as a weaker dollar, anticipation of interest rate reductions, and safe-haven investments fueled by current geopolitical instability buoyed the market.

Gold priced in the greenback became more accessible to international purchasers as the dollar, which makes the precious metal more affordable for overseas buyers, remained near the two-month low it hit last week.

Benchmark 10-year US Treasury yields also experienced a slight decline.

Last week, the US Federal Reserve reduced its interest rate by 25 basis points, following a divided vote.

Any additional easing of monetary policy will be contingent upon the future performance of the labour market and inflation levels.

Markets are currently pricing in two US rate cuts next year, with investors eyeing this week’s US nonfarm payrolls report for further clues on monetary policy.

“Gold demand looks likely to increase should the dollar come under further downside pressure,” said David Morrison, senior market analyst at Trade Nation.

But gold could also turn lower should the dollar start to pick up again, particularly if the Dollar Index were to retest resistance around 100.00 on a cash basis.

Meanwhile, silver’s price increased by 3.2%, reaching $63.955 per ounce.

This follows a volatile session on Friday, where it hit a record high of $64.65 before dropping significantly by the close.

Following a sharp retreat from fresh record highs on Friday, silver experienced a strong overnight rebound, surging approximately 2% and regaining its bullish momentum.

“The price action highlights silver’s heightened sensitivity to positioning and sentiment, with sharp swings likely to persist after its recent explosive run,” Morrison said.

Oil falls

At the time of writing, the price of West Texas Intermediate crude oil was at $56.96 per barrel, down 0.5%, while Brent was at $60.87 per barrel, down 0.4%.

A projected worldwide oil surplus in 2026 caused both contracts to drop over 4% last week.

Venezuela’s oil exports have significantly declined following the US seizure of a tanker and the imposition of new sanctions on shipping companies and vessels involved in trade with the Latin American oil producer.

The intensifying US pressure on President Nicolas Maduro, which includes reported plans by Reuters for America to intercept more ships carrying Venezuelan oil, is being closely monitored by the market for its potential impact on global oil supply.

Talks between Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy and US envoys in Berlin concluded after five hours on Sunday, with negotiations scheduled to resume on Monday.

During the discussions, President Zelenskyy proposed abandoning Ukraine’s ambition to join the NATO military alliance.

While US envoy Steve Witkoff stated that “a lot of progress was made,” no further details were released.

A potential peace agreement resulting from these talks could lead to an increase in Russian oil supply, which is currently subject to sanctions by Western nations.

According to JPMorgan Commodities Research in a Saturday note, oil surpluses are anticipated to broaden further through 2026 and 2027, following expected widening in 2025.

This projection is based on global oil supply being forecast to increase at three times the rate of demand growth through 2026, thus outpacing it.

“Oversupply fears continue to dominate the longer-term narrative while global demand growth continues to slow,” Morrison said.

It’s worth pointing out that lower oil prices have the potential to wreck Russia’s economy.

Source: invezz

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Devin

Economic

President Trump Claims Inflation Is Neutralized

On December 14, 2025, President Trump claimed that inflation is 'totally neutralized,' amid his administration's efforts to reduce inflation to an average of 2.7% during his second term.

The claim highlights ongoing economic strategies, but lacks a direct correlation to cryptocurrency markets, although broader economic improvements can indirectly influence risk assets.

President Donald Trump announced earlier today that inflation is "totally neutralized," according to a speech reported on December 14, 2025. Economic details in a recent White House statement show inflation has been reduced to 2.7% during his term. Donald J. Trump, President of the United States, remarked, "inflation has been cut by more than half" and is "working to bring it down further."

Trump's statement was not directly attributed to any social media post. The White House article highlights Trump's economic strategy, mentioning spending cuts and tariff adjustments to tackle inflation challenges.

The broader economic impact is significant, with wage growth approaching 4% and gas prices declining nationwide. These figures illustrate the potential benefits felt across various sectors and household budgets. Shelter inflation also reached a four-year low, according to White House data.

Experts like Federal Reserve Governor Steven I. Miran recognize improved goods inflation prospects due to deregulation. In his Columbia University speech, Miran highlighted factors driving positive economic momentum, without directly addressing Trump's inflation neutralization claims.

Current cryptocurrency markets have not shown any direct response to these announcements, with no on-chain data indicating shifts. Experts haven't linked changes in crypto assets such as ETH or BTC to inflation claims.

The path forward for financial and regulatory outcomes may hinge on prolonged economic measures. Analysts believe inflation reductions could influence risk assets, though direct impacts on cryptocurrency remain speculative. Historical patterns and economic trends provide vital context for ongoing analysis.

Source: CryptoSlate

To stay updated on all economic events of today, please check out our Economic calendar

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Adam

Economic

What happened last week

Third consecutive cut from Fed: The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) voted to reduce policy rates by 25 basis points (bps) with three dissenting voices. One member advocated for a 50bps reduction, while two voted to maintain rates unchanged. The dot plot median projection indicates only one cut next year as the committee anticipates improved growth prospects (from 1.8% to 2.4%) and inflation moderating more rapidly than expected. Risk assets rallied on enhanced policy clarity and resilient economy.

China's deflation challenge persists: November's consumer price index (CPI) year-on-year (YoY) growth accelerated to 0.7% from October's 0.2%, driven by elevated food prices. However, producer price index (PPI) contracted for the 38th consecutive month, deepening to 2.2% YoY from 2.1% in October, indicating persistent deflation amid intense price competition and subdued domestic demand.

Chinese policy priorities emerge: The Politburo designated domestic demand as the paramount priority for 2026, reducing dependence on exports. Monetary and fiscal policies will remain 'moderately loose' and 'proactive', though policy wordings suggest stimulus will not exceed this year's levels. Addressing involution represents another priority.

RBA stays put: Australia's easing cycle may be coming to an end as the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) holds for the third consecutive meeting amid elevated inflation. While the new monthly CPI data series might have exaggerated the situation, the RBA believes there is an upside risk to inflation. The board did not consider rate cuts, instead focusing on factors that would warrant increases next year.

Markets in focus

AI bubble concerns drive US equity volatility

The S&P 500 and Dow Jones indices established fresh all-time highs last Thursday following the Federal Reserve's (Fed) rate decision, before retreating on Friday amid renewed concerns over artificial intelligence (AI) sector valuations. The Nasdaq 100 bore the brunt of the selloff, declining 1.9% for the week, while the S&P 500 retreated 1.1%. The Dow Jones demonstrated relative resilience, advancing 1.0%.

Oracle's fiscal second quarter results catalysed the latest wave of AI stock selling pressure. The AI cloud infrastructure provider missed revenue expectations and failed to alleviate investor concerns regarding its mounting debt burden. Capital expenditure projections for fiscal year 2026 surged 40% to $50 billion, triggering a 13% weekly decline in Oracle's share price. Broadcom encountered similar headwinds despite exceeding top and bottom-line expectations. Insufficient clarity regarding order backlog combined with warnings of gross margin compression prompted investors to liquidate positions, driving an 11% decline following a 75% year-to-date rally preceding quarterly results.

Conversely, Warner Bros Discovery shares surged 15% after Paramount Sykdance submitted a $108.4 billion acquisition proposal, following Netflix's $83 billion merger agreement.

Despite record highs across other major US indices, the US Tech 100 index continues to exhibit subdued momentum, evidenced by a descending relative strength index (RSI) trajectory. The benchmark currently trades at support established by prior resistance near 25,200. A rebound from this level would signal near-term bullish momentum towards 26,253, while failure to hold support could prompt testing of the next level near 24,250.

Figure 1: US Tech 100 index (daily) price chart

as of 14 December 2025. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance.

Hang Seng Index trades sideways

The Hang Seng Index (HSI) maintained a sideways trajectory, delivering a modest decline of 0.4% last week. Trading volume on the Hong Kong Exchange main board continued to remain subdued despite enhanced clarity on 2026 global economic prospects from the FOMC. Investors continued to realise profits as the year draws to a close. Southbound net flows turned negative last week, a development not observed for at least six months.

The FOMC's hawkish cut is generally supportive of global banking stocks performance. HSBC Holdings was the best performing Hang Seng Index constituent, surging 6% to a 17-year high last week. Meanwhile, Chinese insurers are benefiting from a steepening Chinese government bond yield curve and a structural transformation in society, as Chinese households diversify their deposit and investment allocation beyond traditional banking channels. Ping An Insurance was a notable outperforming stock last week, delivering 5% in returns.

The 20-day moving average (MA) on the HSI daily chart continued to trend downward after failing to form a golden cross with the 50-day MA in mid-November, revealing sluggish momentum. The index appears positioned to trade within the 25,150 to 27,400 range in the near term. The short-term moving averages will likely present resistance around 26,100 while November's low establishes support near 25,180.

Figure 2: Hang Seng Index (daily) price chart

as of 14 December 2025. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance.

Silver price breaks record high

Silver surged to a historic record above $64 per ounce last week, marking an extraordinary breakout that has captured renewed attention from both institutional and retail investors. Year-to-date, the white metal has delivered 115% in returns, significantly outpacing gold's performance, demonstrating its higher volatility characteristic and amplifying the precious metals rally.

Multiple forces have converged to drive silver's exponential surge. The prospect of the Fed's loosening monetary policy following softer US economic data has weakened the dollar and compressed real yields, creating favourable conditions for non-yielding assets. Traditional safe-haven demand amid geopolitical uncertainties was also a key supporting factor of precious metal demand this year. Additionally, industrial consumption remains robust. Silver's unmatched conductivity makes it indispensable for solar panel production, electric vehicle components and AI infrastructure build-out. These overlapping industrial trends have created sustained demand that supply has struggled to match.

The technical picture reveals strong bullish momentum, with spot silver prices surging above the upper boundary of the ascending channel since mid-August. However, RSI readings suggest overbought conditions, indicating potential near-term consolidation before the uptrend resumes. 4 December's low at $56.4 should provide immediate support for any pullback, while a 161.8% Fibonacci extension of the upward move from 20 August to 16 October provides a medium-term target of $73.6.

Figure 3: Spot silver (daily) price chart

as of 14 December 2025. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance.

The week ahead

China's economic momentum takes centre stage Monday with industrial production, housing prices, retail sales and fixed asset investment figures for November. Markets anticipate industrial production growth to accelerate to 5% YoY from 4.9%, while retail sales are expected to hold at 2.9%. These releases assume heightened significance following November's CPI report, with investors seeking confirmation that China's recovery from deflationary pressures represents a sustainable trend. Stronger-than-expected readings would validate recent equity market optimism, while disappointment could ignite concerns about Beijing's stance of refraining from ramping up stimulus measures.

November's US labour market data arrives Tuesday with the non-farm payrolls report subdued following September's modest 119,000 gain. Markets expect the unemployment rate to hold at 4.4%. Thursday's November year-on-year inflation data is anticipated to remain roughly at current levels. These releases will influence the Fed's trajectory for 2026 and determine whether there will be a prolonged pause in the cutting cycle.

Central bank meetings dominate the second half of the week, with the European Central Bank (ECB), Bank of England (BOE) and Bank of Japan (BOJ) all convening. The ECB is widely expected to keep its deposit facility rate at 2% on Thursday, while the BOE is likely to deliver a quarter-point cut to 3.75% unless Wednesday's inflation reading complicates matters. The BOJ's Friday decision commands particular attention. Markets are pricing in nearly 80% probability of a rate increase from 0.5% to 0.75%, marking the central bank's first move since January. The recent hawkish pivot partly reflects concerns over yen weakness, with USD/JPY almost reaching 158. Should Governor Ueda signal additional tightening ahead, the currency pair could retreat towards 154 levels, though this would likely pressure Japanese equities. The path forward remains highly uncertain, with BOJ communication critical for market positioning.

Figure 4: Yen volatility and inflation pressure strengthens case for BOJ hike

Source: ig

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Daniel Carter

Economic

Mexico's government calculates that new tariffs on Asian goods will only impact inflation by 0.2 percentage points and won't significantly affect prices of cars imported from nations like China.

Economy Minister Marcelo Ebrard provided the inflation estimate at a government press conference on Monday, adding that the tariffs are needed to protect some 350,000 jobs concentrated in Mexico's automotive, textile and metals sectors. They should only affect about 8% of the Latin American country's total trade, he added.

President Claudia Sheinbaum's ruling party last week muscled through the new import duties in a break from years of favoring free trade policies, broadly matching the approach championed by the US, by far Mexico's top trading partner.

Speaking at Sheinbaum's regular morning press conference, Ebrard stressed that the levies will reduce Mexico's lopsided trade deficit with Asian economies.

"We import 10 times what we export to Asia," he said.

After three months of often heated debate, lawmakers approved the tariffs on goods from Asian countries that don't have in place a trade deal with Mexico, including China, South Korea and India. The bill will impose tariffs of between 5% and 50% on more than 1,400 categories of products beginning in January.

For her part, Sheinbaum insisted that the tariff policy is country-neutral.

"We are taking measures that are not directed against any country, but rather aim to prevent further job losses," she said, pointing out that the levies should add around 30 billion pesos ($ 1.7 billion) per year to state coffers.

Opponents of the measure, including from Sheinbaum's Morena party, expressed fears for inflation as well as a possible impact on trade relations with China, the world's second-biggest economy.

Ebrard noted that private sector lobbying achieved changes to the original plan, including relaxing some levies on hard-to-substitute auto parts as well as selected steel and aluminum products.

Source: Bloomberg Europe

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Adam

Forex

The pound held steady on Monday ahead of a string of UK data that could help cement expectations for a Bank of England rate cut later in the week.

Markets show traders are almost fully pricing in a rate cut on Thursday, when the BoE meets, and traders expect another cut by the middle of 2026, with a possibility of a second by year-end.

Inflation is still running at nearly twice the BoE's 2% target rate, but the economy is slowing.

Data last week showed that, on a monthly basis, Britain's gross domestic product was barely changed, or contracted, every month since June.

In October, GDP shrank by 0.1% both in the August-October period and during the month alone, against forecasts for a flat reading and a 0.1% rise, respectively, as the economy lost momentum in the run-up to finance minister Rachel Reeves' budget in November.

Sterling , which has risen 7% this year against the dollar, was at $1.3382, little changed on the day, while trading slightly weaker against the euro, which held at 87.755 pence .

Investors are waiting for the delayed release of the U.S. November non-farm payrolls report on Tuesday to set the tone for the dollar.

UK wage growth data is due on Tuesday and consumer price inflation (CPI) on Wednesday. Both will come under close scrutiny from investors. They are unlikely to change expectations for Thursday's BoE meeting, but could prove key in shaping the policy outlook for 2026, analysts said.

"At last, even in these sleepy weeks before Christmas, there is still much to discuss," Caxton strategist David Stritch said.

"Whilst the delayed U.S. non-farm payroll data releasing tomorrow may have the most worldwide traders glued to their desks, UK CPI, unemployment and the BoE decision will be the most crucial for the sterling 2026 outlook."

Data on Monday from property website Rightmove showed asking prices for British homes have fallen by more than is usual for the time of year, in what could be a reflection of increased uncertainty in the property market ahead of last month's budget.

Source: reuters

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Justin

Political

Economic

First-time buyers are taking out larger mortgages than ever before as rising wages and looser affordability tests allow them to buy properties that were previously beyond their budget.

The average first-time buyer borrowed £210,800 in the year to September, a record high, according to analysis by Savills, the property agent.

First-time buyers accounted for 20% of all spending in the UK housing market in the 12-month period, which is the highest level since at least 2007, it added.

This effect is even more pronounced in places such as London, with separate research from the estate agent Hamptons revealing that first-time buyers made more than half of all purchases in the capital this year.

In total, Savills said mortgage lenders loaned a record £82.8bn to 390,000 first-time buyers in the period, a 30% increase on the previous year.

The larger mortgages come as some first-time buyers skip the traditional first rung of the property ladder and buy a house rather than a flat. The average age of a first-time buyer is 34, according to the Mortgage Advice Bureau, while 31% have children by the time they get on the property ladder.

Many first-time buyers also took advantage of the stamp duty holiday, which let them pay no tax on the first £425,000 of a property's value, to buy a larger home. This limit dropped back down to £300,000 in April. They also benefited from a "buyer's market", with prices falling in some parts of the country.

Lucian Cook, the head of residential research at Savills, said a significant driving force behind the record borrowing had also been the "slightly more relaxed approach" of lenders.

"Home ownership is more accessible now than at any point in the last three years, thanks to lower borrowing costs, lower real house prices, and more accessible mortgage debt," he said.

Mortgage lenders typically do not lend more than 4.5 times a borrower's income and also consider whether someone could still afford repayments if interest rates soared, in a check known as "stress tests".

However, in March the Financial Conduct Authority said that the way some lenders were conducting their stress testing "may be unduly restricting access to otherwise affordable mortgages". It reminded lenders that companies have "flexibility to design their test in a way that is appropriate" for their customers.

Since then, most lenders have reduced the interest rate at which they stress test borrowers, with most first-time buyers now able to increase their borrowing by £20,000-£40,000.

The relaxation of lending rules comes at a time when mortgage rates are easing , with an average two-year fix now at 4.91% and a five-year fix at 4.86%, according to Moneyfacts, a financial services provider. These are the lowest rates since before Liz Truss's disastrous mini-budget in September 2022.

A separate analysis found that house hunters could typically snap up a property for about £2,000 less than a year ago and about £6,700 less than the average only a month ago, according to Rightmove.

Across Britain, 2025 is ending with average asking prices at 0.6% (£2,059) less than late 2024. At £358,138, the average asking price in December is also 1.8%, or £6,695, lower than in November, according to the website.

Annual growth in asking prices has been strongest in the north-west of England (2.6%), flat in London (0%) and most negative in the south-west and south-east (both at minus 2.7%). Rightmove said prices usually fall in December but this year's decrease is bigger than usual.

However, a bigger than usual "Boxing Day bounce" is also expected by the website, as people who put their home moving plans on hold because of budget uncertainty start looking again after Christmas.