Gaza Ceasefire Talks In Cairo Near ‘Significant Breakthrough,’ Two Security Sources Say

Palestinian-Israeli conflict

Summary:

Negotiations held in Cairo to reach a ceasefire in Gaza were on the verge of a "significant breakthrough".

Negotiations held in Cairo to reach a ceasefire in Gaza were on the verge of a "significant breakthrough," two Egyptian security sources told Reuters on Monday.

There was no immediate comment from Israel and Hamas. Axios reporter Barak Ravid said in a brief post on X that an Israeli official denied the reported breakthrough, without giving further details.

The Egyptian sources said there was a consensus on a long-term ceasefire in the besieged enclave, yet some sticking points remain, including Hamas arms.

Hamas repeatedly said it was not willing to lay down its arms, a key demand by Israel.

Earlier, Egyptian state-affiliated Al Qahera News TV reported that Egyptian intelligence chief General Hassan Mahmoud Rashad was set to meet an Israeli delegation headed by strategic affairs minister Ron Dermer on Monday in Cairo.

The sources said the ongoing talks included Egyptian and Israeli delegations.

Mediators Egypt and Qatar did not report developments on the latest talks. Qatar Prime Minister Sheikh Mohammed bin Abdulrahman Al Thani said on Sunday that a recent meeting in Doha on efforts to reach a ceasefire made some progress, but noted there was no agreement yet on how to end the war. He said the militant group is willing to return all remaining Israeli hostages if Israel ends the war in Gaza. But Israel wants Hamas to release the remaining hostages without offering a clear vision on ending the war, he added. The media adviser for the Hamas leadership, Taher Al-Nono, told Reuters on Saturday that the group was open to a years-long truce with Israel in Gaza, adding that the group hoped to build support among mediators for its offer.

Speaking at a conference in Jerusalem on Monday night, before Reuters reported that there had been progress in the talks, Dermer said the government remained committed to dismantling Hamas' military capability, ending its rule in Gaza, ensuring that the enclave never again poses a threat to Israel and returning the hostages.

Israel resumed its offensive in Gaza on March 18 after a January ceasefire collapsed, saying it would keep up pressure on Hamas until it frees the remaining hostages still held in the enclave. Up to 24 of them are believed to be still alive.

The Gaza war started after Hamas' October 7, 2023, attack which killed 1,200 people and resulted in 251 hostages being taken to Gaza, according to Israeli tallies. Since then, Israel's offensive on the enclave killed more than 52,000, according to local Palestinian health officials.

Source: ARAB

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Commodity

Gold Prices Fall Amid Improved Trade Sentiment

In early trading on April 28, international gold prices experienced a notable decline, with spot gold falling 1.1% to $3,282.33 per ounce and U.S. gold futures slipping 0.2% to $3,292.80 per ounce. The drop reflects the market’s reaction to signs of easing tensions between the United States and China, a development that traditionally weakens demand for safe-haven assets like gold.

Giovanni Staunovo, an analyst at UBS, noted that markets were feeling relieved by the cooling trade conflict, alongside reduced anxiety over the Federal Reserve’s independence. Both factors diminished the immediate need for defensive investments. This scenario illustrates a causal relationship where political de-escalation directly leads to lower safe-haven demand, resulting in falling gold prices.

Strengthening U.S. Dollar Exerts Additional Pressure

Another critical factor weighing on gold was the continued strengthening of the U.S. dollar, which rose 0.2% against a basket of major currencies. As the dollar appreciates, gold becomes more expensive for buyers using other currencies, thereby reducing its international appeal.

The relationship here is strongly inverse: a stronger dollar typically exerts downward pressure on gold prices. While the dollar's movement is influenced by broader economic data and monetary policy expectations, its immediate impact on gold demand is clear and direct.

Recent Highs and Shifting Momentum

Just a week earlier, spot gold had reached a high of $3,500.05 per ounce, buoyed by escalating trade tensions and increased demand from central banks and private investors. The rapid decline since then underscores how quickly sentiment can shift in the gold market based on geopolitical developments.

However, while the decline suggests a short-term weakening of gold’s appeal, it does not necessarily sever the broader linkage between geopolitical risks and gold demand. Future flare-ups in political tensions could swiftly reignite safe-haven buying.

Trade Developments and Policy Implications

Despite China's partial tariff exemptions for U.S. goods, Beijing also refuted President Trump’s claims that active negotiations were underway. This mixed signaling creates an environment of uncertainty, where investors must navigate between temporary relief and the possibility of renewed tensions.

The Federal Reserve’s upcoming policy decisions are another crucial variable. Key U.S. economic indicators, including the Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS), Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Index, and non-farm payroll data, are due this week. These reports could significantly influence market expectations regarding future interest rate cuts.

If economic data suggest persistent inflation or robust labor markets, it could strengthen the dollar further, placing additional downward pressure on gold. Conversely, signs of economic slowing could revive hopes for rate cuts, thereby boosting gold prices. This outlines a conditional relationship where future data outcomes will critically shape gold’s trajectory.

Outlook Remains Cautiously Optimistic Despite Pullback

Despite the recent pullback, many investors remain cautiously optimistic about gold’s medium-term prospects. The underlying geopolitical landscape remains unsettled, and economic risks have not fully abated. As such, the potential for renewed safe-haven demand remains intact.

In other precious metals, silver prices slipped 0.5% to $32.93 per ounce, platinum prices edged up 0.6% to $976.75 per ounce, and palladium remained stable at $948.95 per ounce. These moves mirror broader precious metals sector trends, where each metal’s supply-demand fundamentals and industrial usage patterns provide varying degrees of price resilience.

Overall, Gold’s sharp decline reflects an immediate market reaction to easing trade tensions and a stronger dollar. However, with global political and economic uncertainties still looming, the safe-haven asset retains significant recovery potential. Investor attention now turns to upcoming U.S. economic reports and Federal Reserve signals, which will be pivotal in determining whether gold can stabilize or face further pressure in the weeks ahead.

Source: Reuters

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Daily News

[Quick Facts]

1. Trump seeks to mitigate auto tariff fallout, may act before Tuesday.

2. U.S. Treasury lifts quarterly borrowing estimate as debt impasse drains cash reserves.

3. Iran proposes meeting with Europe ahead of next U.S. talks.

4. U.S. tariffs backfire on agriculture: Orders canceled, prices plunge, crisis deepens.

5. Rehn: ECB should not rule out a larger interest rate cut.

[News Details]

Trump seeks to mitigate auto tariff fallout, may act before Tuesday

According to The Wall Street Journal, Trump is expected to take steps to soften the impact of auto tariffs. Measures may include preventing overlapping tariffs on foreign-made cars and easing some tariffs on foreign auto parts used in U.S. manufacturing. This would exempt automakers from paying auto tariffs from additional levies like those on steel and aluminum (as reported by the Financial Times). The administration will also revise the 25% tariff on foreign auto parts (set to take effect May 3), allowing automakers a 3.75% tariff rebate on U.S.-made cars in the first year, dropping to 2.75% in the second year before phasing out. Trump is expected to act before attending a rally in Michigan on Tuesday evening, marking his 100th day in office.

U.S. Treasury lifts quarterly borrowing estimate as debt impasse drains cash reserves

Reported on Monday, the U.S. Treasury lifted its Q2 federal borrowing forecast to 514 billion (up from 123 billion in February) due to lower-than-expected cash balances, as Congress has yet to raise the debt ceiling. The Treasury's March cash balance was 406 billion, far below the earlier 850 billion projection. Constrained by the debt ceiling, the government is unable to increase the scale of treasury bond issuance. It maintained its June cash balance forecast at $850 billion, assuming the debt ceiling will be resolved by then.

Iran proposes meeting with Europe ahead of next U.S. talks

Iran has proposed meeting with European signatories of the 2015 nuclear deal (E3: UK, France, Germany) in Rome on Friday before potential U.S.-Iran talks, per diplomats. Omani officials said that a new round of US-Iran talks may be held in Europe on May 3. No formal decision has been made yet.

Iran has extended an olive branch to Britain, France, and Germany (the E3), indicating that Tehran is still keeping its options open while also hoping to assess the European stance regarding the possible reimposition of UN sanctions before October, when the resolution approving the 2015 nuclear deal expires. Two E3 diplomats and one Western diplomat said that Iran put forward a proposal for talks that could take place in Rome on Friday after its meeting with the U.S. last Saturday. The diplomats said that if that is not possible, Iran has also suggested holding discussions in Tehran before this date.

U.S. tariffs backfire on agriculture: Orders canceled, prices plunge, crisis deepens

U.S. media reported on April 28 (local time) that the American agricultural sector has sustained significant losses due to fierce global retaliation against the Trump administration's tariff policies, particularly China's suspension of U.S. agricultural imports. The head of the U.S. Agricultural Transportation Alliance bluntly stated that a "full-blown crisis" has engulfed the industry. Freight data firms revealed that as of April 14, shipping volumes between China and the U.S. plummeted sharply, with a week-over-week decline exceeding 22% and a year-over-year drop of 44%. U.S. agricultural exporters warned that the Chinese market is irreplaceable, and the ongoing decline in bilateral trade has already impacted prices for American farm products. Some commodity prices have fallen by more than 20%.

Rehn: ECB should not rule out a larger interest rate cut

European Central Bank Governing Council member Olli Rehn stated in a Monday speech that the recent tightening of financing conditions and emerging risks to economic growth underscore the critical need for policy flexibility. He emphasized that maintaining ample flexibility is essential, and the ECB should not set specific thresholds based on hypothetical neutral rates, nor should they preemptively exclude the possibility of rate cuts of any magnitude. Now is the time for agile and proactive monetary policy.

Theoretically, the ECB will not pre-commit to any specific interest rate path. There is no reason to assume a default 25-basis-point adjustment. However, this view remains theoretical and depends on the medium-term inflation outlook, as well as whether growth prospects deteriorate or improve.

If forecasts by June indicate that inflation will fall below the 2% target over the medium term, the appropriate response would be to cut rates further.

[Today's Focus]

UTC+8 17:00 Eurozone April Economic Sentiment Index

UTC+8 17:40 BoE Deputy Governor Dave Ramsden speaks

UTC+8 21:00 U.S. February FHFA House Price Index (MoM)

UTC+8 22:00 U.S. March JOLTs Job Openings

UTC+8 22:00 ECB Governing Council member Robert Holzmann speaks

TBD: Japan-U.S. second round of tariff negotiations

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Economic

Public Confidence in Trump’s Economic Policies Declines

A recent national survey conducted by CNN and SSRS from April 17 to April 24 revealed that 59% of Americans believe President Donald Trump’s policies have made the U.S. economy worse. This represents a notable increase from 51% in March and matches the lowest approval level seen during Joe Biden’s presidency. Despite the full effects of Trump's renewed tariff measures not yet materializing, sentiment has already shifted decisively toward pessimism.

The data reflects a correlation where political leadership and perceived economic conditions are intertwined in public opinion. However, given that major tariff impacts are still unfolding, the sharp rise in negative perceptions suggests that psychological and anticipatory factors play a strong role alongside actual economic indicators.

Widespread Concern About Inflation and Recession Risks

The survey also highlights acute public concerns over inflation and economic contraction. Approximately 60% of respondents reported that Trump’s policies have increased their local cost of living, while only 12% felt prices had fallen. Moreover, 69% of those surveyed believe there is at least some likelihood of a recession within the next year, with 32% rating the possibility as “very likely.”

Only 34% of Americans expressed excitement or optimism about the economy, while 29% described their feelings as pessimistic and 37% said they felt fear. These figures paint a grim portrait of national economic morale and suggest a strong correlation between cost pressures and declining consumer sentiment.

Personal testimonies from respondents illustrate the human dimension behind these statistics. For example, a 59-year-old Republican lamented that decades of personal financial achievements were rapidly eroding, while others cited direct impacts from government program cuts.

Persistent Skepticism Toward Tariff Strategies

Public opinion remains notably skeptical about the effectiveness of Trump’s tariff approach. Fifty-five percent view the overall tariff strategy as bad policy, compared to only 28% who support it. When asked specifically about tariffs targeting Chinese goods, negativity remains slightly lower but still predominant, with 53% disapproving.

Importantly, 58% of respondents indicated they do not believe Trump has a clear strategy behind his tariff actions. In the short term, 72% expect tariffs to hurt the U.S. economy, 60% anticipate damage to America’s international standing, and 59% foresee negative impacts on their personal finances. Fewer than 30% see any immediate benefits.

In the long run, opinions are somewhat less dire, but still more negative than positive: 53% expect tariffs to cause lasting harm, while only 34% believe they could eventually benefit the economy. Notably, while nearly half of Republicans admit tariffs might hurt the economy in the short term, about three-quarters believe they will ultimately prove advantageous, suggesting a partisan divergence between immediate and long-term assessments.

Economic Anxiety and Priorities Shift

Only 28% of Americans now describe the economy as “good,” compared to 71% who say it is “bad.” When asked about the most pressing economic issues facing their families, the majority cited high costs: 28% mentioned inflation directly, 16% pointed to food prices, and 15% referred to the broader cost of living.

Emerging worries are also visible: 9% specifically cited tariffs, 7% mentioned stock market or investment instability, and 4% pointed to Trump’s leadership and policies as direct causes for concern. These concerns reflect not just a general unease, but a growing specificity in how individuals link political decisions to their personal economic situations.

One Democratic respondent provided a vivid example: after their spouse lost their job due to Trump administration budget cuts, the family faced soaring living costs and a plummeting retirement portfolio, dramatically altering their financial security.

Workforce Preferences Challenge Policy Narratives

Despite Trump’s argument that tariffs and reshoring efforts would revive U.S. manufacturing, public preference appears to diverge. Seventy-three percent of Americans said they would prefer an office job over a manufacturing job at the same wage, indicating that the administration’s emphasis on industrial revival may not align with the workforce’s evolving career aspirations.

This finding suggests a structural disconnect between the nature of Trump’s economic policies and the labor market preferences of the average American worker, weakening the potential causal link between industrial policy initiatives and broad-based political support.

Public opinion in the United States is increasingly critical of President Trump’s economic leadership, particularly regarding rising living costs and skepticism about the effectiveness of new tariff measures. Fears of recession loom large, and dissatisfaction spans both short- and long-term perspectives, although partisan divisions temper some reactions. As economic uncertainty intensifies, the gap between policy intentions and public sentiment continues to widen, posing significant challenges for the administration’s economic narrative moving forward.

Source: CNN

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Catherine Richards

Stocks

Economic

U.S. stock indexes shook off a midday slump and ended mostly higher at the start of a week packed with several potential flashpoints for markets. The S&P 500 edged up 0.1% Monday, its fifth gain in a row. The Dow Jones Industrial Average added 0.3%, and the Nasdaq composite slipped 0.1%. Drops for some Big Tech stocks held back the market’s gains ahead of earnings reports this week from Amazon, Apple, Meta Platforms and Microsoft. Reports this week will also show how the U.S. economy performed at the start of 2025 and how many workers employers hired during April.

U.S. stocks are giving back some of their big recent gains Monday, ahead of potential flashpoints later this week that could bring more sharp swings for financial markets.

The S&P 500 was down 0.8% in afternoon trading and on track to break a four-day winning streak. The Dow Jones Industrial Average was down 145 points, or 0.4%, as of 1:45 p.m. Eastern time, and the Nasdaq composite was 1.1% lower.

It’s a lull following historic swings that have been rocking markets for weeks, as hopes rise and fall that President Donald Trump may back down on his trade war. Many investors believe Trump’s tariffs could cause a recession if left unchecked.

Coming into Monday, the S&P 500 had roughly halved its drop that had taken it nearly 20% below its record set earlier this year. But weakness for some influential tech stocks ahead of their earnings reports later this week weighed on the market.

Amazon fell 1.6%, Microsoft sank 0.8%, Meta Platforms lost 0.2% and Apple slipped 0.1%. All are on the schedule to report their latest result this week, and they’re some of Wall Street’s most influential companies because they’ve inflated to become some of the biggest in terms of size by far.

Outside of Big Tech, executives from Caterpillar, Exxon Mobil and McDonald’s may also offer clues this week about how they’re seeing economic conditions play out. Several companies across industries have recently been slashing their estimates for upcoming profit or pulling their forecasts completely because of uncertainty about what will happen with Trump’s tariffs.

“We heard more plans to mitigate tariff impacts than in prior months and than during 2018” from U.S. companies, including pre-ordering, shifting production and increasing prices for their own products, according to Bank of America strategist Savita Subramanian. But she also said in a report that she’s seeing “some indications of a pause: no hiring/no firing, no new projects/no cancellations etc.”

A fear is that Trump’s on-again-off-again tariffs may be pushing households and businesses to alter their spending and freeze plans for long-term investment because of how quickly conditions can change, seemingly by the hour.

Domino’s Pizza slipped 0.4% after it reported weaker profit for the latest quarter than analysts expected and the pizza chain’s CEO, Russell Weiner, called the global economic environment “challenging.”

DoorDash dipped 0.4% after Deliveroo, the food delivery service based in London, said it heard from DoorDash about a possible cash offer to take over the company.

So far, economic reports have mostly seemed to show the U.S. economy is still growing, though at a weaker pace. On Wednesday, economists expect a report to say U.S. economic growth slowed to a 0.8% annual rate in the first three months of this year, down from a 2.4% pace at the end of last year.

But most reports Wall Street has received so far have focused on data from before Trump’s “Liberation Day” on April 2, when he announced tariffs that could affect imports from countries worldwide. That could raise the stakes for upcoming reports on the U.S. job market, including Friday’s, which will show how many workers employers hired during all of April.

Economists expect it to show a slowdown in hiring down to 125,000 from 228,000 in March.

The most jarring economic data recently have come from surveys showing U.S. consumers are getting much more pessimistic about the economy’s future because of tariffs. The Conference Board’s latest reading on consumer confidence will arrive on Tuesday.

In the bond market, Treasury yields fell some more. They’ve calmed since an unsettling, unusual spurt higher in yields earlier this month rattled both Wall Street and the U.S. government. That rise had suggested investors worldwide may have been losing faith in the U.S. bond market’s reputation as a safe place to park cash.

The yield on the 10-year Treasury fell to 4.22% from 4.29% late Friday.

In stock markets abroad, indexes were mixed amid modest moves across much of Europe and Asia. The CAC 40 in Paris rose 0.5%, but stocks slipped 0.2% in Shanghai.

Source: BNN BIoomberg

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Economic

Political Uncertainty Stalls Negotiation Progress

On April 28, South Korea’s Deputy Minister of Trade, Industry, and Energy, Park Sung-taek, confirmed that reaching a comprehensive trade agreement with the United States before the extraordinary presidential election on June 3 is "virtually impossible." His statement reflects the severe constraints facing South Korea's negotiating position following the impeachment of former President Yoon Suk-yeol late last year.

This political vacuum, with only a temporary government in place, has significantly weakened Seoul’s ability to commit to major economic or defense agreements. The relationship observed here is clearly causal: political instability within South Korea has directly curtailed its capacity to conclude critical trade negotiations with Washington.

Timeline Challenges and U.S. Pressure

The urgency surrounding the talks stems from an approaching deadline: the temporary suspension of retaliatory tariffs between the two countries will expire on July 8. Last week’s initial round of negotiations aimed at crafting a new trade arrangement failed to yield substantial progress. Although both sides have expressed a willingness to cooperate, especially in lifting tariffs on cars, steel, and other key products, the compressed timeline—less than 70 days—makes substantial breakthroughs unlikely.

Deputy Minister Park candidly acknowledged that despite U.S. President Donald Trump’s strong push for rapid agreements with key allies like Japan, South Korea, and India, the special circumstances in Korea's domestic politics make a swift resolution extremely challenging. Here, the time constraint and political situation appear intertwined, creating a compounding barrier to swift negotiation outcomes.

Scope of South Korea’s Proposals and Cooperation

In an attempt to maintain momentum, South Korea has proposed measures such as requesting tariff exemptions on automobiles, steel, and other strategic goods. The country has also pledged enhanced collaboration with the U.S. in sectors like shipbuilding, energy, and addressing trade imbalances.

These proposals show that while Seoul remains committed to strengthening bilateral economic ties, its current government lacks the mandate to finalize deals involving long-term industrial commitments or major financial obligations. Thus, while goodwill and preliminary cooperation exist, institutional limitations prevent these from immediately translating into formal agreements.

Broader Implications for U.S. Trade Strategy

Washington is actively seeking to finalize a range of trade agreements before the July 8 deadline, aiming to solidify its economic alliances amid heightened global competition. South Korea’s announcement poses a significant complication for the U.S. strategy, as it had intended to showcase these agreements as diplomatic victories under President Trump’s administration.

The situation reveals a broader pattern where political instability among key allies can directly undermine the timing and execution of U.S. trade ambitions. Although the United States remains in active discussions with Japan and India, the setbacks with South Korea highlight the fragility of a timetable-driven approach to complex international negotiations.

South Korea’s admission that a trade agreement with the United States is unlikely before its June 3 presidential election underscores how domestic political crises can reverberate across global economic strategies. While diplomatic channels remain open, the reality of interim governance, compressed timelines, and negotiation fatigue make short-term success improbable. As a result, both sides may need to recalibrate expectations, with major progress deferred until after a new South Korean administration is in place.

Source: Reuters

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Stocks

Diverging Market Movements Amid Tentative Calm

On April 28, U.S. stock markets exhibited mixed performances, reflecting a fragile stabilization in investor sentiment following tentative signs of easing trade tensions. The Dow Jones Industrial Average climbed by 114.09 points, or 0.28%, closing at 40,227.59. The S&P 500 edged higher by 3.54 points, or 0.06%, to 5,528.75. In contrast, the Nasdaq Composite slipped by 16.81 points, or 0.10%, to settle at 17,366.13.

The split performance across indices suggests that while traditional industrial sectors benefited modestly from reduced trade anxieties, technology stocks, more sensitive to global supply chain disruptions, continued to face downward pressure. This divergence signals a correlation where easing political rhetoric temporarily stabilizes broader market sentiment but fails to reverse sector-specific vulnerabilities fully.

Signs of Reduced Tension and Persistent Risks

Market sentiment improved marginally after President Donald Trump softened his public pressure on Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell and hinted at potential progress in trade negotiations. Russ Mould from AJ Bell described the "quiet weekend" as a much-needed relief for financial markets. However, analysts including Fawad Razaqzada from City Index and FOREX.com warned that underlying risks remain pronounced, notably ongoing trade uncertainties, recession fears, and monetary policy ambiguity.

Thus, the relationship between political tone and market behavior appears to be one of partial correlation: positive diplomatic signals can alleviate short-term fears, but deep-seated structural risks related to tariffs and global growth persist, continuing to anchor cautious investor behavior.

Corporate Earnings and Economic Data Awaited

Investor focus now shifts to upcoming corporate earnings releases and economic data. Tech giants such as Amazon, Apple, Meta, and Microsoft are scheduled to report their first-quarter results this week. Analysts are closely monitoring how newly imposed tariffs have affected corporate earnings, particularly among technology firms with global exposure.

Ross Mayfield from Baird noted that the market currently lacks strong positive catalysts, with investors awaiting clearer signs from corporate financials and macroeconomic indicators before committing to more aggressive buying. This wait-and-see attitude reflects a feedback loop where uncertainty delays investment decisions, which in turn dampens market momentum.

Tariff Risks and Economic Outlook

Although some optimism arose when China exempted certain U.S. goods from new tariffs, suggesting a slight cooling of tensions, broader fears about a global recession remain elevated. According to a Reuters survey, economists continue to see a high risk of global economic contraction.

Meanwhile, U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent attempted to reassure markets by stating that he does not anticipate significant goods shortages despite escalating tariffs. Nevertheless, concerns about supply chain disruptions and cost pressures continue to lurk beneath the surface, especially for sectors reliant on international sourcing.

The trend indicates that although some trade tensions have eased, the potential causal impact of tariffs on higher consumer prices and lower corporate margins remains a lingering threat, with the market responding more to sentiment shifts than to concrete resolution so far.

Performance of Vietnamese Markets Reflects Regional Sentiment

In regional markets, Vietnam’s VN-Index fell by 2.43 points, or 0.2%, to close at 1,226.8, while the HNX-Index dropped by 0.27 points, or 0.13%, to 211.45. The decline suggests that broader concerns about global economic softness and trade instability are filtering through to Southeast Asian markets, even as local factors play a secondary role.

In conclusion, while a temporary easing in U.S.-China trade tensions provided some relief, U.S. markets remain trapped between fragile optimism and persistent risks. Mixed index performances highlight sectoral differences in sensitivity to global uncertainties, while upcoming corporate earnings and economic reports are poised to determine the next market direction. For now, caution remains the dominant market narrative as investors await more definitive signals about trade, monetary policy, and global growth.