Futures higher, Cisco to report, Ether surges - what’s moving markets

Economic

Summary:

US futures rose after soft inflation data lifted Wall Street to records. Cisco’s earnings eyed for 2026 guidance. Perplexity bid $34.5B for Chrome. Ether neared records; gold edged higher on Fed cut hopes.

U.S. stock futures climb on Wednesday, suggesting more gains ahead for Wall Street after tepid inflation data drove the S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite to all-time closing peaks. Cisco Systems (NASDAQ:CSCO) is due to report, with analysts keeping their eyes peeled for the network equipment provider’s outlook for its 2026 fiscal year. Elsewhere, Perplexity AI offers $34.5 billion to buy Google’s Chrome browser.

Futures rise

Futures contracts linked to the largest U.S. indices rose, pointing to an extension in gains logged in the prior session that were fueled by muted inflation figures.

By 03:36 ET (07:36 GMT), the S&P 500 futures contract had advanced by 33 points, or 0.5%, and Nasdaq 100 futures had climbed by 264 points, or 1.1%, and Dow futures had gained 49 points, or 0.1%.

All three of the major averages on Wall Street rallied by more than 1% on Tuesday, spurred on by data showing that headline year-over-year consumer price growth in July matched the preceding month. The numbers bolstered wagers that the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates at its upcoming meeting next month, with officials at the central bank seen opting to prioritize supporting a flagging labor market over still above-target price gains.

"Inflation was broadly in line with expectations as tariffs continue to be largely absorbed within U.S. corporate profit margins. This gives the Fed the room to respond to the weaker jobs backdrop," analysts at ING said in a note.

Both the benchmark S&P 500 and tech-heavy Nasdaq notched fresh record closing highs, while yields on short-dated U.S. Treasuries -- which are particularly sensitive to rate expectations -- dipped. Yields tend to move inversely to prices.

Cisco to report

On the earnings calendar, Cisco Systems is set to kick off a string of releases from companies whose reporting quarter finished at the end of July.

The results, due out after the closing bell, are anticipated to beat expectations thanks partially to "general strength" in Cisco’s firewalls business and cybersecurity subscribers, according to analysts at Piper Sandler.

"Cisco is still experiencing net-momentum into the second half, with early networking prints a good signal for the space and 2026 likely a good refresh period," the analysts led by James Fish wrote.

They added that Cisco’s fiscal year 2026 guidance will be "key," particularly after Mark Patterson replaced Scott Herren as the firm’s finance chief. Herren, who retired in July, is leaving after Cisco raised its fiscal 2025 results outlook, banking on artificial intelligence helping to sustain demand from cloud customers for its networking equipment.

Observers also noted that the contribution of Splunk (NASDAQ:SPLK), the cybersecurity group Cisco bought for $28 billion in 2024, will now be folded into the company’s organic numbers. The transaction was the largest in Cisco’s history and reflected a push to more deeply integrate AI into its operations.

Perplexity’s $34.5 bn bid for Google’s Chrome

Perplexity AI has put forward a $34.5 billion unsolicited all-cash offer to buy Alphabet-owned Google’s Chrome brower, marking a push by the startup to harness the data needed to train its AI model from the service’s billions of users.

The news comes as Google faces a legal battle over antitrust concerns surrounding its all-important search business.

Last year, a U.S. judge ruled that Google had spent billion of dollars to illegally create a monopoly that made it the world’s dominant search engine. The decision cleared the way for a number of potential fixes, including the breaking up of Alphabet (NASDAQ:GOOGL) through a sale of Chrome. Such a move could fundamentally alter the world of online advertising that has long been a centerpiece of Google’s operations.

Perplexity, which previously submitted a bid for TikTok US as the short-form video app dealt with concerns in Washington around its Chinese ownership, did not disclose how it plans to fund its bid. The firm was last valued at $14 billion, and has raised roughly $1 billion in backing from investors like SoftBank (TYO:9984) and Nvidia (NASDAQ:NVDA).

Ether near all-time peak

Bitcoin gained slightly, while Ether hovered around record highs as cryptocurrency markets rallied on the mild U.S. consumer inflation data.

Ether also surged amid a flurry of buying as corporate entities stockpile the world no. 2 cryptocurrency in a manner similar to Bitcoin. The digital token rose as much as 8.5% to $4,683.0, coming within touching distance of a $4,861 record high hit in November 2021.

Several U.S.-listed companies outlined plans to increase their Ether holdings this week amid growing adoption of a Bitcoin buying strategy popularized by Michael Saylor’s Strategy.

The world’s biggest corporate Bitcoin holder, Strategy has raised billions of dollars through share issuances, which it has then largely used to fund Bitcoin purchases over the last two years.

Gold inches higher

Gold prices pushed up in early European trading, supported by hopes for Fed policy easing, while investors also looked ahead to U.S.-Russia talks due later this week.

Spot gold had risen by 0.3% to $3,359.54 an ounce, while gold futures for December climbed by 0.3% to $3,408.22/oz by 03:35 ET.

Following Tuesday’s muted inflation figures, markets are now pricing in a more than 96% probability of a September cut, according to CME’s FedWatch Tool. Lower interest rates reduce the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding assets such as gold, making bullion more attractive to investors.

However, gold’s advance was tempered by geopolitical developments, with traders closely watching Friday’s summit between U.S. President Donald Trump and Russian President Vladimir Putin in Alaska.

The meeting will focus on the war in Ukraine, and market participants are weighing the possibility of proposals for a ceasefire.

Source: investing

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Samantha Luan

Economic

Stocks

Forex

Key points:

● MSCI EM stocks up 1.7%, FX up 0.3%

● Zelenskiy, European leaders to speak to Trump ahead of Alaska summit

● Thailand cuts interest rates by 25 bps

Emerging market equities jumped on Wednesday, lifting a key stocks gauge to its highest in nearly four years on hopes the Federal Reserve will trim rates next month.The MSCI global EM equity gaugeCBOE:EFSjumped 1.7%, hitting its highest since Nov. 2021, helped by strong gains in Asian stocks. A similar gauge for currencies edged up 0.3%.

Hong Kong's Hang Seng Indexjumped 2.6%, logging its strongest intraday performance in over three months. South Koreanrose 1.1%, while Indonesian equitiesrose to their highest in nearly 11 months.Thai stocksjumped 1.6% after the central bank cut interest rates by 25 basis points, as expected. The bahtgained marginally.Emerging market currencies rose at the expense of the dollaras Tuesday's tame U.S. inflation data and a recent dismal jobs report cemented expectations of a U.S. interest rate cut next month.

CME FedWatch now pegs the probability of a September cut at 97%, up from about 86% a day earlier and just 57% a month ago."Markets were reassured because the tariff impact on inflation didn't look so obvious this time," Deutsche Bank analysts said in a note.Momentum in central and eastern European stocks and currencies was subdued compared to Asia. Equities in Polandslipped 0.3%, while Romania's stocksinched up 0.4%.

Czech'sand Hungary'sbenchmark indexes held steady.

Markets tracked Wednesday's virtual sit‑down between European and Ukrainian leaders and U.S. President Donald Trump before the latter's summit with Russian President Vladimir Putin in Alaska on Friday.The unpredictability of how the summit will play out has fanned European jitters that the two leaders could cut sweeping deals, or strong‑arm Ukraine into accepting a deal that forces it to surrender a significant amount of land.Ukraine's international dollar bonds slipped for the second day."The market seems to be lowering its expectations for the outcome of Friday's talks," said Frantisek Taborsky

EMEA FX & FI Strategist at ING.

"It seems that the market has slightly overestimated the outcome, and the risk is becoming more symmetrical again, but still biased towards losses in case of a collapse in negotiations."Meanwhile, South African equitiesjumped 1.1% to a record high, while the randgained 0.3% JPMorgan said on Tuesday the recently imposed 30% U.S. tariffs on South African exports are expected to have a limited effect on the country's assets, as markets have "largely priced in the reality of higher tariff headwinds".The country's business confidence and retail sales figures are due later in the day.Elsewhere, stocks in Israeljumped 1.8%, recovering from a steep fall in the previous session.

Source: TradingView

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Adam

Stocks

Asia Market Wrap - RBA Cuts Rates, Nikkei Hits Fresh All-Time Highs

apan's Nikkei index hit a new milestone on Wednesday, crossing the 43,000 mark for the first time ever. The broader Topix index also reached a record high, following strong gains in Wall Street overnight and marking six straight days of growth.

The Nikkei rose by as much as 1.7% to a high of 43,451.46 before closing at a record 43,274.67. This brings its total gain to 7.4% since August 4. Monday was a public holiday in Japan.

The MSCI All Country World Index rose by 0.2% to a record high, following Wall Street's climb to new peaks. Markets are almost fully expecting a 0.25% interest rate cut by the Fed next month. Asian shares also performed well, rising 1.1%, with Shanghai stocks hitting their highest level since December 2021.

European Open - Shares to Record Highs

Global stock markets reached a record high on Wednesday following the European Open.

The MSCI All Country World Index rose for the second day, hitting a record high of 950.13. European stocks went up by 0.5%, with German stocks increasing by 0.6%. Tech and defense stocks were the main drivers of the gains.

The S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 were both up 0.14% and 0.20% respectively.

On the FX front, the dollar index, which measures the dollar against other major currencies, dropped to 97.76, its lowest since July 28, after falling 0.5% on Tuesday.

This weakness boosted the euro, which rose 0.3% to $1.1709, briefly hitting its highest since July 28. The British pound also gained 0.4% to $1.3562, its highest since July 24.

The Australian dollar increased by 0.35% to $0.6552, while the New Zealand dollar rose 0.5% to $0.5986.

In cryptocurrencies, Bitcoin paused its rally and fell slightly by 0.34% to $119,809. Meanwhile, Ether reached a nearly four-year high of $4,679.

Currency Power Balance

Looking at commodities, Gold prices went up on Wednesday as mild inflation data increased expectations of a U.S. Federal Reserve rate cut in September. A weaker dollar also boosted demand for gold.

Spot gold rose 0.3% to $3,354.77 per ounce, while U.S. gold futures for December delivery edged up 0.1% to $3,403.20.

Oil prices dropped on Wednesday after the IEA reported that supply is expected to exceed demand this year. Investors are also watching for Friday's meeting between U.S. President Donald Trump and Russian President Vladimir Putin.

Brent crude fell by 45 cents (0.7%) to $65.67 per barrel, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude dropped 53 cents (0.8%) to $62.64 per barrel.

Economic Data Releases and Final Thoughts

Looking at the economic calendar, a quiet day lies ahead.

The biggest events for the day will be EIA oil inventories data as well as a host of Federal Reserve policymakers who are scheduled to speak.

Lastly, we will get the Bank of Canada meeting minutes release which will be interesting to see in light of the RBA decision to cut rates and expectations that other Central Banks will follow suit.

Chart of the Day - FTSE Index

From a technical standpoint, the FTSE 100 advanced but has failed to break above the recent all-time highs just shy of the 9200 level.

We have seen multiple rejections of this level in recent days and it appears some form of catalyst may be needed to get the Index across the line.

In what could be seen as a sign of the bearish pressure, the RSI did not even make it to overbought territory before the rejection.

The question now becomes, is this a small pullback before an attempt to break beyond the 9200 handle?

On the support side we have the 9150 and 9132 support areas which if they hold could help the FTSE 100 print fresh highs.

FTSE Daily Chart, August 13. 2025

Source: marketpulse

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Warren Takunda

Stocks

London stocks had pared gains by midday on Wednesday in quiet trade, but the mood remained upbeat after the latest US inflation reading raised hopes of a September rate cut from the Federal Reserve.

The FTSE 100 was up 0.1% at 9,154.43.

Russ Mould, investment director at AJ Bell, said: "Animal spirits are definitely in charge of the market right now, as investors embrace the potential for the Fed to cut interest rates in the wake of what was seen as a soft inflation reading in the US.

"The US central bank still remains in cautious mode, waiting to observe if tariffs stoke a pick-up in prices for US consumers. While that might be a prudent approach, the longer tariffs don’t show up in the inflation data, the greater the pressure grows on Jerome Powell and the interest rate committee to cut rates.

"While there are only tentative signs of tariffs showing up in US consumer prices, they may be more of a subtle, slow burn which aren’t immediately apparent in the headline rate right now. Trump thinks foreign exporters will take the hit rather than passing tariffs onto US consumers. Only time will tell whether he’s right about that, but it’s at least plausible that companies might accept lower profit margins only temporarily, especially while there is so much tariff uncertainty. Policymakers and consumers outside the US might also take note there is nothing stopping global companies from seeking to defray the cost of tariffs by ultimately raising prices outside the US, as well as within it."

US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said in an interview with Fox Business on Tuesday that the Fed should be open to a 50 basis point rate cut next month.

In equity markets, construction and infrastructure products group Hill & Smith surged as it announced a £100m share buyback programme after reporting strong cash generation and a double-digit increase in underlying profits in the first half.

Quilter was also in the black after an upgrade to ‘buy’ from ‘hold’ by Berenberg, which cited an improved outlook for the business.

Genuit - formerly Polypipe - rallied as RBC Capital Markets upgraded the stock to ‘outperform’ from ‘sector perform’, saying the company was geared for growth.

On the downside, specialist insurer Beazley tumbled as it posted a drop in first-half profit and cut its full-year premium growth guidance.

Housebuilder Persimmon fell after saying it still expects to deliver between 11,000 and 11,500 completions for the full year despite challenging market conditions and the prospect of tax rises in October’s Budget.

Infrastructure group Balfour Beatty lost ground even as it backed its full-year expectations, reporting an increase in first-half profit as strength in the UK construction business offset US weakness.

Outside the FTSE 350, discount shoe retailer Shoe Zone tanked after halving its full-year profit guidance and cancelling its dividend.

Source: Sharecast

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Michelle

Commodity

Economic

The impact of this year’s dramatic policy reversal by OPEC+ is now becoming clear.

This week’s reports from two of the oil industry’s bedrock institutions illustrate the effects of the cartel’s move — finalized earlier this month — to fast-track the revival of halted production.

The International Energy Agency almost tripled the size of the global surplus it anticipates this year since Saudi Arabia and partners started opening the taps in April. That forecast now stands at just under 1.8 million barrels a day.

For next year, the IEA anticipates a record glut of nearly 3 million barrels a day, even surpassing — in annual average terms — the stockpile flood unleashed during the Covid-19 pandemic in 2020.

The IEA’s American counterpart, the US Energy Information Administration, boosted estimates for the overhang from October through March by two-thirds in its latest monthly update.

Admittedly, the global oil demand outlook has wobbled during this period, assailed by China’s economic woes and US President Donald Trump’s tariff onslaught.

But the adjustment has primarily come about on the supply side of the ledger and, for that, the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and its partners are chiefly responsible.

The group’s champions will hail this as a success: OPEC+ managed to green-light the addition of 2.5 million barrels a day this year at the same time analysts said it wouldn’t be able to add any without triggering a massive price crash.

Oil bulls could argue that predictions of coming gluts have proved unfounded before and that, for all the current hoopla, inventories in Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development countries remain near their lowest in decades.

Crude prices will continue finding a floor, they’ll contend, as long as China remains ready to scoop up bargain barrels to fill its capacious strategic reserves.

Nonetheless, the months ahead are set to test OPEC’s resolve.

If, as officials say, the Saudis are committed to recouping market share, then they’ll be willing to ride out the coming price storm.

But with Brent futures below $66 a barrel even before the looming stockpile wave hits, Riyadh could choose the option — signaled earlier this month — of reversing course.

Source: Bloomberg Europe

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Glendon

Stocks

Economic

Futures tracking the S&P 500 and the Nasdaq indexes were pinned at record highs on Wednesday, buoyed by increasing confidence that the Federal Reserve could restart its monetary policy easing cycle next month.

Signs that U.S. taxes on imports have not fully filtered into headline consumer prices sparked a relief rally on Wall Street in the previous session, with the benchmark S&P 500marking its first record high close in two weeks.

Despite core inflation marking its biggest jump since the start of the year, investors factored in recent weakness in the job market and a shake-up at the Federal Reserve as they leaned in favor of a potential dovish move by the central bank in September.

Interest rate futures now reflect a 98% chance of a 25 basis points interest rate cut, according to data compiled by LSEG, compared with 88.8% on Tuesday. The central bank last lowered borrowing costs in December.

"A benign CPI report, coming on the heels of weak non-farm payrolls, has strengthened the case for a September Fed cut," said Nikos Tzabouras, senior market analyst at Tradu.com.

"However, market euphoria could be challenged as stagflation risks persist, potentially eroding consumption and hurting advertising - a key revenue stream for many tech giants."

At 7:10 a.m. ET, Dow E-minis (YMcv1) were up 132 points, or 0.30%, S&P 500 E-miniswere up 13.25 points, or 0.20% and Nasdaq 100 E-miniswere up 58.25 points, or 0.24%.

The CBOE volatility index, popularly referred to as Wall Street's fear gauge, dropped to 14.46 - its lowest since January.

Rate-sensitive banking stocks such as Bank of Americaand Citigroupwere marginally higher in premarket trading after the broader sector (.SPXBK) logged its biggest daily rise in three months on Tuesday.

Analysts said a steepening yield curve following the inflation report could help bank earnings as lenders could borrow cheap and lend at a higher rate.

Later in the day, investors will scrutinize remarks of a number of policymakers, especially Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee - a Federal Open Market Committee voting member this year.

Earnings are also in focus. CoreWeave, which is backed by Nvidia, lost 8.3% after the AI data center operator reported a bigger-than-expected quarterly net loss.

Eyes are also on developments surrounding the China revenue-sharing deal the U.S. government signed with chipmakers like Nvidia and Advanced Micro Devices, which the White House said could be expanded to others in the sector.

Eli Lillyrose 1.3% after the drugmaker launched the easy-to-use injector pen of its blockbuster weight-loss drug, Mounjaro, in India.

Venture Globalgained 8.5% after the LNG major won a legal battle against Shellover its failure to deliver liquefied natural gas under long-term contracts starting in 2023.

Crude prices traded around $60 per barrel ahead of a virtual meeting between Donald Trump and European leaders on the Russo-Ukraine conflict, two days before the U.S. president meets Russian President Vladimir Putin.

Source: Reuters

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Samantha Luan

Economic

Political

Forex

Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said the Federal Reserve should keep the door open to a larger, 50 basis-point rate cut next month, after opting to hold rates steady at its last meeting. Bessent told Fox Business on Tuesday that the real thing now to think about is whether we should get a 50 basis-point rate cut in September.He pointed to revised data showing weaker job growth in May and June than initially reported, which was released just two days after the Fed’s July 30 decision to leave rates unchanged.

According to Bessent, the Fed “could have been cutting in June, July” had it had the updated figures earlier. He made the remarks shortly after fresh inflation data showed the consumer price index (CPI) rose 0.2% in July, while core CPI, excluding food and energy, increased 0.3% in line with forecasts. Goods prices remained subdued despite tariff hikes, while services inflation accelerated.“Everyone was expecting… goods inflation, but there was actually this very odd service inflation,” he said.

Markets rally as investors bet on deeper September rate cut

S&P 500, Nasdaq, and Dow Jones popped about 1%-1.4% higher on positive economic news, continually solidifying the belief that a September rate cut is coming. Also, according to the latest CPI data, tariffs have had a milder impact on goods prices than anticipated, boosting investor optimism and expectations that price pressures will eventually wane.The rally also reflected expectations that the Fed may adopt a more aggressive easing stance, with futures markets now pricing in a strong likelihood of at least a 25-basis-point cut, and a meaningful chance of the 50-basis-point reduction floated by Bessent.

Bessent expressed hope that Stephen Miran, President Trump’s open Fed board seat nominee, will be confirmed in time for the Sept. 16–17 policy meeting. Miran, currently head of the White House Council of Economic Advisers, has been nominated for a term ending in January, though Bessent suggested he could be asked to remain longer.On the search for a successor to Fed Chair Jerome Powell, whose term ends in May, Bessent said Trump is casting “a very wide net” and considering candidates based on their monetary and regulatory policy stances and their ability to overhaul the Fed’s structure. He argued the institution has become “bloated,” risking its independence.

Bessent blasts Fed renovation as U.S. pushes for major trade deals

Bessent swiped at the Fed’s $2.5 billion renovation of its Washington headquarters, noting that he is paying personally for his office refurbishment at the Treasury. Trump has repeatedly criticized Powell over the project’s cost, alongside his frustration at the Fed’s reluctance to cut rates this year.On trade, Bessent said the U.S. aims to reach substantial agreements with major partners in the coming months. He also touted more than $10 trillion in committed private-sector investments since Trump’s return to the White House.

The Treasury secretary said the U.S. is in a strong position and expects to reach substantial agreements with all major countries. Bessent said that several major trade deals remain unfinished, including agreements with Switzerland and India, noting that the latter has been “a bit recalcitrant” in discussions with Washington. He expressed hope the Trump administration could finalize the negotiations by the end of October.