Fed’s Surprise Return to T-Bill Purchases Calms Repo Market Jitters

Economic

Summary:

The Federal Reserve’s decision to resume Treasury bill purchases is expected to ease stress in money markets by increasing liquidity and curbing elevated repo borrowing rates ahead of year-end volatility....

Fed Resumes Balance Sheet Expansion to Ease Liquidity Pressures

In a strategic reversal of its previous quantitative tightening stance, the U.S. Federal Reserve announced it will begin purchasing $40 billion in Treasury bills starting December 12. This move marks the central bank’s return to active balance sheet expansion, aimed at restoring smoother liquidity conditions in short-term funding markets, particularly the overnight repo market.

This policy action comes amid concerns that years of balance sheet runoff had over-tightened monetary conditions. By injecting liquidity through short-dated government bond purchases, the Fed aims to reinforce its control over benchmark rates and avoid dislocations in money markets, which have faced growing strain despite the formal conclusion of quantitative tightening earlier this month.

Repo Market Strains Reflect Tight Liquidity Environment

The overnight repurchase agreement (repo) market a $4 trillion corner of the financial system where banks and funds borrow cash against Treasury collateral has seen repeated rate surges in recent weeks. These spikes, with repo rates at times exceeding the Fed’s target rate, are clear signs of constrained liquidity. The Secured Overnight Financing Rate (SOFR), which tracks cost of repo borrowing, has become an indicator of these pressures.

Analysts attribute the liquidity squeeze to several interacting forces. First, a sharp increase in Treasury bill issuance expanded the supply of collateral needing funding. Simultaneously, a recent U.S. government shutdown led to the accumulation of large balances in the Treasury General Account (TGA), effectively withdrawing reserves from the banking system and limiting cash available for repo transactions.

This cause-and-effect chain from government fiscal operations to liquidity withdrawal and repo rate volatility underscores the fragility of current market dynamics and the urgency behind the Fed’s action.

Market Reaction and Strategic Implications

The Fed’s decision is seen by analysts as a proactive measure to mitigate year-end funding pressures, a period historically characterized by short-lived volatility in short-term lending markets. According to Stephen Douglass of NISA Investment Advisors, the move was necessary because repo trading had remained persistently above the Fed’s administered policy rates, even after QT officially ended on December 1.

Robert Tipp of PGIM Fixed Income emphasized the importance of this liquidity restoration, particularly for “basis trades” arbitrage strategies where investors profit from the pricing gap between Treasuries and Treasury futures. These trades rely heavily on repo funding, and a dysfunctional repo market could pose broader risks to market liquidity and price stability.

By stepping in early, the Fed appears to be signaling a shift away from passive normalization and toward active liquidity management. The timing, just before the year-end rollover, suggests that the Fed aims to suppress any spikes in borrowing costs that could ripple across the financial system, particularly in light of fragile investor confidence following a divided rate cut decision.

Targeted Liquidity Support Marks Tactical Pivot

The Federal Reserve’s resumption of Treasury bill purchases signals more than just a response to technical market pressures it represents a targeted policy adjustment to stabilize short-term funding costs and protect broader financial conditions. Though not a full-scale return to quantitative easing, the move highlights the Fed’s responsiveness to liquidity signals and its willingness to adapt policy tools when systemic funding stress emerges.

Looking ahead, this action could serve as a template for similar interventions should volatility in the repo market re-emerge, especially during periods of fiscal uncertainty or uneven capital flows. For investors, the move removes an immediate source of risk and reinforces confidence in the Fed’s capacity to manage interest rate corridors with precision.

Source: Reuters

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Economic

Commodity

Gold Retreats Amid Fed Uncertainty

Spot gold slipped 0.2% to $4,221.49 per ounce on Thursday morning in Asia, pulling back from a near one-week high reached earlier in the session. This decline came in response to a policy move from the U.S. Federal Reserve that, while reducing interest rates by 25 basis points, exposed deep divisions among policymakers and cast doubt over future cuts. Although U.S. gold futures for February delivery managed a 0.6% gain to $4,249.70, the overall market reaction reflected caution.

The Fed’s decision was not unanimous. Six members opposed even this quarter-point reduction, an unprecedented show of resistance that dampened hopes for a sustained easing cycle. Chair Jerome Powell reinforced this stance by withholding any guidance on the timeline for further cuts and emphasizing that inflation remains elevated while labor market conditions are yet to provide a clear signal for policy loosening. This ambiguity weakened gold’s momentum, despite the asset’s typical inverse relationship with interest rates.

Divided Fed Limits Gold’s Upside Potential

Gold, a non-yielding asset, tends to benefit from lower interest rates because such conditions reduce the opportunity cost of holding bullion. However, the latest policy update suggests a cautious, data-dependent Fed going into 2026. Investors are now looking ahead to key economic releases particularly November’s jobs and inflation figures and the upcoming detailed Q3 GDP revision to assess whether the central bank may be compelled to resume easing.

According to Tim Waterer, Chief Market Analyst at KCM Trade, “Gold has been unable to kick on with things today… because the Fed's message was essentially that any further rate cuts could be few and far between.” This remark highlights a causal relationship between the Fed’s tempered outlook and gold’s inability to sustain earlier gains.

Silver Defies Broader Market Caution, Hits All-Time High

In stark contrast to gold, silver surged to a record high of $62.88 per ounce before stabilizing at $62.25, up 0.8% on the day and boasting a staggering 113% year-to-date gain. The silver rally appears to be driven more by supply and demand fundamentals than monetary policy cues. With inventories falling and industrial demand particularly from clean energy and electronics on the rise, silver continues to attract speculative and commercial buying.

Another critical factor in silver’s rally is its recent addition to the U.S. critical minerals list, signaling heightened strategic importance and potentially tighter future supply. Ilya Spivak, head of global macro at Tastylive, noted that silver’s price trajectory appears to be largely independent of the macroeconomic noise: “Silver hasn’t really paid attention to things outside and has been rallying all by itself.” He added that $64 per ounce is now the next psychologically significant resistance level.

This divergence between gold and silver highlights a key point: while gold remains tightly linked to Fed policy and macroeconomic sentiment, silver's price movements are increasingly shaped by structural market factors, suggesting a different type of resilience and investor behavior.

Other Precious Metals Mixed Amid Market Crosscurrents

Platinum edged up 0.3% to $1,660.50, continuing its recent mild recovery, likely supported by similar industrial drivers as silver. However, palladium fell 0.2% to $1,479.70, extending its underperformance relative to other precious metals. Unlike silver, palladium has struggled with a weaker demand outlook due to declining automotive usage and substitution trends.

The post-Fed market reaction underscores diverging narratives within the precious metals space. While gold is grappling with a policy-sensitive environment where uncertainty over future U.S. interest rates dampens near-term enthusiasm, silver is benefiting from powerful secular tailwinds in demand and tightening supply. These divergent trajectories suggest that investors may need to recalibrate their strategies within the sector, balancing gold’s macro sensitivity with silver’s industrial strength. The evolving dynamics reinforce the importance of distinguishing between correlation and causality in market behavior, particularly during periods of policy transition.

Source: Reuters

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Forex

Economic

Rupee Poised to Open Higher After Fed-Induced Dollar Retreat

The Indian rupee is projected to start Thursday’s trading session on a firmer footing, tracking gains across Asian currencies after the U.S. Federal Reserve’s latest policy move weakened the dollar. One-month non-deliverable forwards suggest the rupee could open around 89.85 per U.S. dollar, a slight appreciation from the prior close at 89.9650. This potential uptick comes in the wake of the Fed's widely expected 25 basis point cut, which placed the benchmark interest rate at 3.5%–3.75%, its lowest level this year.

What stood out more than the rate cut itself was Chair Jerome Powell’s post-meeting press briefing, where he emphasized that further rate hikes were unlikely in the near future. His remarks, interpreted as less hawkish than feared, spurred a sharp drop in the dollar and U.S. Treasury yields, while sparking a rally in Wall Street that extended into Asian equities.

Weaker Dollar Offers Short-Term Support

The U.S. dollar index, which tracks the greenback against a basket of major currencies, fell 0.6% on Wednesday to hover near 98.58 its lowest in two months. This broad retreat in the dollar has offered immediate support to the rupee, which recently slipped to an all-time low of 90.42 before consolidating above that level.

Despite the temporary reprieve, market participants remain cautious. While the Fed’s dovish undertone may ease immediate currency pressures, the rupee’s trajectory remains vulnerable to global capital movements and domestic macroeconomic imbalances. Foreign investors pulled out $236.5 million from Indian equities and $36.6 million from bonds on December 9 alone, as per NSDL data, reflecting continued risk aversion toward Indian assets.

Capital Outflows and Trade Uncertainty Weigh on Outlook

Although the dollar’s softness has opened the door for a modest rupee recovery, analysts remain skeptical about the currency’s medium-term strength. The absence of a bilateral trade agreement with the U.S., combined with continued equity and bond outflows, limits upside potential. This reveals a causative link: the weak trade diplomacy and investor sentiment are actively contributing to rupee underperformance.

Goldman Sachs echoed this view in a client note, stating that while the worst phase of rupee underperformance may have passed, significant gains are unlikely unless capital flows stabilize and the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) can rebuild its foreign exchange reserves. Accordingly, the bank revised its rupee forecast downward to 91 over the next six and twelve months, a sharp adjustment from earlier projections of 87.50 and 86.50.

Broader Market Conditions Show Mild Optimism

Oil prices, another key factor for the rupee given India’s reliance on imports, edged up 0.4% with Brent futures trading at $62.4 per barrel. The modest rise in oil may slightly dampen rupee gains due to increased import bills, but it remains manageable within current valuation ranges.

Meanwhile, U.S. 10-year Treasury yields dropped to 4.14%, reflecting reduced expectations of further tightening. This yield compression can enhance the relative attractiveness of emerging market debt, offering a potential channel for capital re-entry if geopolitical and macroeconomic uncertainties subside.

While the Federal Reserve’s dovish messaging and falling dollar have created favorable conditions for the rupee’s near-term rebound, the underlying trajectory is still shaped by broader structural challenges. The link between trade diplomacy, capital flows, and currency performance remains central. Unless India secures more consistent foreign investment and improved external account dynamics, any appreciation in the rupee is likely to remain constrained within a narrow range. The RBI’s reserve strategy and geopolitical developments will be crucial determinants in the months ahead.

Source: Reuters

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Economic

A Divided Fed Delivers a Final 2025 Rate Cut

The U.S. Federal Reserve’s third and final rate cut of 2025, reducing the benchmark rate by 25 basis points to 3.5%–3.75%, was expected yet layered with mixed messaging. While the cut was anticipated, the overall tone of the announcement was notably hawkish. Two members of the Federal Open Market Committee Jeffrey Schmid and Austan Goolsbee voted to keep rates unchanged, while one member advocated for a deeper cut. This split decision revealed the Fed’s internal caution about overstimulating an economy still navigating inflationary pressures and geopolitical uncertainty.

President Donald Trump, however, openly criticized the modest rate move, claiming it should have been “at least doubled.” At the same event, he hinted at interviewing former Fed Governor Kevin Warsh for the Fed chair position, stirring additional speculation about future shifts in monetary policy leadership.

Markets Cheer Despite Hawkish Undertones

While the policy stance reflected restraint, equity markets responded with optimism. The Dow Jones Industrial Average jumped 1.1%, buoyed by investor confidence in the Fed’s subtle shift toward easing. The S&P 500 and other key indexes rose in tandem, encouraged by signs that rate hikes are unlikely to return anytime soon. This reaction suggests a positive correlation between market sentiment and liquidity expansion even when interest rate cuts are delivered with a caveat.

The real catalyst for the rally appeared to be the Fed’s unexpected announcement of a $40 billion Treasury bill purchase program, set to begin Friday. Though not framed as quantitative easing, this move effectively increases the money supply, offering liquidity to financial markets without a full pivot to dovish policy. It represents a calculated adjustment, signaling the Fed’s willingness to maintain financial stability while holding a firm stance on inflation management.

Fed Reassures Markets: No Rate Hike Expected

Chair Jerome Powell further soothed market nerves during the post-meeting press conference. When asked about the possibility of rate hikes in the near term, Powell firmly responded that such an outcome is not part of anyone’s “base case.” This dismissal of further tightening helped reinforce investor confidence, underscoring a broader belief that the tightening cycle is definitively over.

More importantly, the Fed upgraded its GDP forecast for 2026 to 2.3%, up from its previous 1.8% projection. This revision suggests that the central bank perceives the economy as fundamentally strong, capable of sustaining moderate growth even without aggressive stimulus. Powell summarized the outlook succinctly: “We have an extraordinary economy.”

This optimism may explain why investors have begun anticipating a “Santa Claus rally” to close the year, with José Torres of Interactive Brokers forecasting that the S&P 500 could surpass the 7,000 mark in the coming weeks a sentiment fueled more by liquidity injections and resilient earnings than interest rate cuts alone.

Oracle Disappoints, Trump Provokes Europe

Outside of central bank developments, other headlines also shaped the trading narrative. Oracle reported fiscal second-quarter revenue of $16.06 billion, growing 14% year-over-year but still falling short of Wall Street expectations. Although its AI-related backlog beat estimates, shares tumbled over 11% in after-hours trading, indicating investor concern over broader tech sector earnings sustainability.

Meanwhile, geopolitical tensions simmered as President Trump referred to European leaders as “weak” in their response to the Ukraine war. These comments, published by Politico, landed poorly amid Europe’s ongoing support for Ukraine and further highlighted the diplomatic rift between Washington and its allies. The remarks could influence investor risk appetite in European markets, particularly given the ongoing lack of European participation in U.S.-led negotiations over a potential Ukraine peace plan.

The December 2025 rate cut encapsulates the Federal Reserve’s challenge of balancing cautious economic stewardship with the need to support markets and growth. Though the cut was modest and hawkish in tone, investors interpreted it as a signal that financial conditions will not tighten further, and that the Fed is prepared to inject liquidity through asset purchases if needed. While this response may reflect a correlation more than direct causality, it suggests investor confidence remains tightly linked to central bank signals, especially when coupled with a resilient economic forecast. As the year closes, markets appear poised for further gains, though sustained optimism will likely depend on how these monetary signals translate into real economic performance.

Source: CNBC

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Economic

Federal Reserve’s Rate Cut Fails to Sustain Asian Momentum

The Federal Reserve’s decision to lower the federal funds rate by 25 basis points to a range of 3.5%–3.75% briefly lifted global investor sentiment. Chair Jerome Powell stated that the Fed is now well-positioned to “wait and see” how the economy unfolds, marking a possible end to the current easing cycle. This message, intended to reassure investors of policy stability, coincided with U.S. stock gains but failed to sustain momentum in Asia-Pacific markets.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average surged by 1.1%, the S&P 500 rose by 0.7%, and the Nasdaq climbed 0.3% following the announcement. These movements reflected investors’ temporary optimism that the Fed might be pivoting toward policy support amid a weakening labor market and persistent inflation concerns, partly attributed by Powell to tariff-related pressures.

Asia-Pacific Markets Reverse Early Gains

Despite initially responding positively, most Asia-Pacific indexes lost ground by the end of Thursday trading. Japan’s Nikkei 225, which opened higher, ended the session down 1.11% to 50,040.65, while the broader Topix index also slipped by 0.52%. The loss appears to reflect investor doubts over the sustainability of global growth without further monetary stimulus.

South Korea's Kospi declined 0.73% to 4,104.85, while the Kosdaq fell 0.36%. Meanwhile, the Hang Seng Index in Hong Kong dipped marginally by 0.06% to 25,526.38 after a short-lived 0.1% rally, indicating a rapid reassessment of risk in a fragile economic environment. The mainland Chinese CSI 300 index also posted minor losses, suggesting investors were not comforted by the Fed's decision.

Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 index remained flat, closing slightly up 0.09% at 8,587.10. This muted reaction suggests that local markets remain cautious about global economic uncertainty and await domestic catalysts.

ZTE Stock Slump Highlights Regional Vulnerabilities

A notable decline came from ZTE Corp, whose shares plunged more than 5% following reports that the company may be fined over $1 billion by the U.S. government for alleged foreign bribery. This event had a direct and negative effect on regional sentiment, particularly in technology-heavy sectors, illustrating how firm-specific geopolitical risks can reverberate through broader markets.

Beyond the rate cut, the Fed announced plans to resume purchases of $40 billion in Treasury bills starting Friday. Short-term Treasury yields fell as a result, indicating a potential shift in investor focus from inflation control to economic support. This move may signal that the Fed is subtly rebalancing priorities amid slowing labor momentum, as evidenced by the removal of language that previously emphasized a “low” unemployment rate in official statements.

The U.S. dollar also weakened, with the dollar index falling to as low as 98.54 its lowest point since October 21. This trend might further pressure Asia’s export-oriented economies, as currency strength against a declining dollar may reduce competitiveness in global trade.

Interplay of Economic Factors and Investor Sentiment

While the Fed’s rate cut initially provided a tailwind to equity markets, its effects appear to have been short-lived across Asia. This pattern suggests a potential correlation not necessarily causation between U.S. monetary policy and Asian market performance, where broader regional factors such as geopolitical risks (e.g., ZTE’s case), local economic conditions, and trade uncertainty continue to dominate investor decision-making.

The divergence between initial market optimism and later-day losses highlights a deeper sentiment shift. Investors may increasingly interpret policy pauses not as confidence signals but as signs of limited central bank flexibility in facing persistent inflation and weak growth both domestically in the U.S. and globally.

Although the Fed’s rate cut was intended to reinforce confidence, markets across the Asia-Pacific region responded with caution rather than enthusiasm. The fading gains underline that monetary easing alone may no longer be sufficient to anchor optimism, particularly when confronted with structural risks, trade headwinds, and corporate uncertainties such as ZTE’s legal troubles. As 2025 winds down, investors appear to be reassessing their risk appetite, awaiting clearer signs of sustainable economic growth across major economies.

Source: CNBC

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Political

A Shift from Sanctions to Physical Seizures

The US’s interception of the Skipper, a 20-year-old very-large crude carrier (VLCC) allegedly linked to illicit Venezuelan-Iranian oil flows, signals a major escalation in its enforcement of sanctions. Previously known as Adisa and sanctioned in 2022, the tanker was identified as stateless and previously docked in Venezuela. A US official claimed it was bound for Cuba, though the vessel's size and route raise questions, as VLCCs rarely serve that corridor.

US Attorney General Pam Bondi confirmed the action via video, showing commandos descending by helicopter in a classic maritime seizure maneuver. The move, according to maritime legal experts, raises the stakes for all marginal shippers and “dark fleets” operating near sanctioned oil flows.

Venezuela's Defiant Response and Geopolitical Messaging

Venezuela called the seizure an act of “piracy” and vowed to defend its sovereignty and natural resources. In a national statement, Caracas reiterated that the ongoing US pressure is ultimately about controlling Venezuela’s vast oil reserves. This narrative is politically potent, especially as opposition leader María Corina Machado receives the Nobel Peace Prize, further inflaming internal political tensions.

President Nicolás Maduro, already under pressure due to US accusations of narcotrafficking and authoritarian rule, responded by ramping up border and coastal military activity, deploying ships, aircraft, and drones. He also encouraged national militia enlistment, suggesting preparation for wider confrontation.

US Political Context: Trump’s Strategic Posturing

President Trump, speaking at the White House, touted the seizure as the “largest ever,” reinforcing his hardline stance against anti-American regimes. The action also fits a broader geopolitical pattern: Trump has threatened Venezuela repeatedly and hinted at possible land-based interventions. With the 2026 election cycle underway, this move strengthens his image as a security-first leader and aligns with a zero-tolerance posture toward Iranian and Venezuelan oil evasion schemes.

Oil markets reacted cautiously but upwardly: Brent futures ticked higher amid growing concerns over maritime disruptions and potential retaliatory actions. Although Venezuela’s crude exports are limited due to sanctions, the move introduces a new risk premium not because of volume, but because of the strategic escalation and supply chain ripple effects.

Analysts, including Rystad Energy's Jorge Leon, view this as a “clear escalation” from financial sanctions to physical interdictions, creating a geopolitical floor for oil prices. Shipping industry experts note that even fringe tanker operators previously willing to take risks may now pause or abandon routes linked to sanctioned Venezuelan oil, effectively choking off even discounted flows to China and Cuba.

Chevron and US Business Interests Remain Shielded

Chevron, which continues joint operations with Venezuela’s PDVSA under a US Treasury license, reported no disruption. CEO Mike Wirth affirmed ongoing compliance discussions with the Trump administration. This distinction underscores the selective enforcement strategy: pressure hostile governments, but protect US corporate interests where legally authorized.

The Skipper incident reveals a sharp pivot in US strategy toward more aggressive maritime enforcement. The implications are broader than Venezuela: they reverberate across the shadow oil trade, especially networks linked to Iran, North Korea, and sanctioned Russian vessels.

As the US tightens enforcement ahead of potential 2026 geopolitical flashpoints (e.g., Taiwan, Iran, Russia), the global shipping community, insurance firms, and oil traders may need to reprice geopolitical risks not because of supply volume, but because of rising confrontation risks on the seas.workaround via backdoor trading routes

Source: Reuters

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Forex

Commodity

India's crude oil imports from Russia are on track to climb to a six-month high in December as the world's third-biggest buyer defies U.S. sanctions on Moscow's oil producers.

Crude arrivals from Russia are expected to rise to 1.85 million barrels per day (bpd) in December, from 1.83 million bpd in November, according to data compiled by commodity analysts Kpler.

India's December imports from Russia are likely to have risen for a third consecutive month and are the highest since June's 2.10 million bpd.

While the South Asian nation's appetite for Russian crude has not been diminished by the U.S. sanctions against top Russian producers Lukoiland Rosneft, what has changed is the mix of buyers.

The largest chunk of Russian oil being imported by India in December is being offloaded at Vadinar port, with Kpler estimating arrivals of about 658,000 bpd, up from 561,000 bpd in November and above the average for 2025 of 431,000 bpd.

Vadinar port serves the refinery of the same name, which is owned by Nayara Energy (ESRO.M3), in which Rosneft owns a 49.13% stake.

The refinery is capable of processing 405,000 bpd, meaning that its current level of imports from Russia is well in excess of its capacity.

This in turn suggests that Nayara is storing crude in the hope that the sanctions against Russian oil and refined products are eased, or that enough buyers will be prepared to ignore them.

It's likely that the current rate of imports from Russia to Vadinar cannot be sustained as the refinery will run out of storage space, given that it currently has capacity to hold about 20 million barrels of both crude and products.

RELIANCE CUTS

While Nayara has ramped up imports from Russia, India's major privately-owned refiner Reliance Industrieshas moved in the other direction.

It is on track to import about 293,000 bpd from Russia in December through its port at Sikka on India's west coast, which supplies the 1.24 million bpd Jamnagar refinery complex.

This is down from 552,000 bpd in November and is well below the 826,000 bpd in June, which was the highest this year, according to Kpler data.

Reliance, which has a 500,000 bpd long-term deal with Rosneft, has said it will comply with U.S. and European sanctions, a move viewed as protecting its export flows to Europe and minimising the risk of legal action against the company.

But it increasingly appears that Reliance is the exception among Indian refiners, with state-owned companies accounting for about 904,000 bpd of imports from Russia in December, according to Kpler.

It would seem that the new U.S. sanctions, announced in October, have failed to cut India's imports from Russia, with India likely making the calculation that the discounts on offer are enough to outweigh any political fallout.

China is the only other major buyer of Russian crude, and it also is continuing to import at the same pace it has done for most of the year.

China's seaborne imports from Russia are expected to reach 1.36 million bpd in December, up from 1.22 million bpd in November and higher than the 1.22 million bpd average in 2025, according to Kpler data.

It's easy to leap to the conclusion that the array of sanctions on Russian crude have failed to dent imports by China and India.

But while volumes have been largely unaffected, it's likely that China and India are demanding, and receiving, bigger discounts, meaning that Russia's revenue from oil sales will be declining.

Whether this is enough to keep further Western sanctions from being imposed is a risk factor that remains for the global crude market.