Fed's Daly: 'A Little Bit More' Rate Cutting Likely Needed 'over Time'

Natural Gas has been showing some interesting price action lately, and for traders who use Elliott Wave analysis, the current setup is worth a closer look. The market has been moving through a double three correction characterized by a series of lower lows and lower highs. Both the daily and 4-hour charts suggest we might be approaching a turning point. Instead of guessing where price might go next, Elliott Wave helps us understand the structure behind the moves—giving us a clearer idea of what could be coming. In this post, we’ll break down what the wave counts are showing on both timeframes, highlight key levels for traders and highligh invalidaion level for the wave count. We will also explain why patience might be the smartest move right now. Let’s take a look at the charts and see what they’re telling us.

Natural Gas Daily Elliott Wave Analysis September 25, 2025

The chart below highlights a year-long rally in Natural Gas from the March 2024 low to the March 2025 peak, unfolding in a clear 5-wave impulsive structure. Within this move, we count 21 distinct swings, supported by momentum divergence between waves (3) and (5)—a classic sign of an impulse wave nearing completion. As per Elliott Wave guidelines, a 5-wave advance is typically followed by a corrective phase in 3, 7, or 11 swings. The initial pullback from the peak took the form of a Zigzag correction, bottoming at $2.967 on April 24, 2025. While this could have marked the end of the correction, the subsequent rally failed to hold, unfolding in just 3 waves and breaking below the $2.967 low on August 12. This breakdown created a 5-swing decline from the March 10 peak, which remains incomplete since corrective sequences unfold in 3, 7, or 11 swings. Based on this structure and the incomplete sequence, we anticipate one more swing lower toward the $2.100–$1.619 zone to complete the 7-swing correction. From there, Natural Gas could resume its larger bullish trend. A break below August 22 low ($2.622) is needed to confirm the last swing lower has started. Until then, a double correction higher in wave B can’t be ruled out [Ref alternate view below]

Please note, a break below the March 2024 low at $1.494 would invalidate this outlook and suggest a deeper correction is underway.

Natural Gas Daily Elliott Wave Analysis September 25, 2025 [ALT VIEW]

The chart below shows an alternate scenario where wave B is forming as a double correction. In this view, we expect one more push higher before the final move down begins. Price could retest the descending trend line, which connects the highs from March 10 and June 20, 2025. The zone between $3.342 and $3.478 represents the 100%–123.6% Fibonacci extension of wave ((w)) compared to wave ((x)). This is a typical area where wave ((y)) could complete. If price reaches this zone and starts to turn lower, it may confirm the end of the correction and signal the next leg down.

Source: ACTIONFOREX

Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago President Austan Goolsbee expressed caution about aggressive interest rate cuts despite supporting last week’s interest-rate cut.

Speaking at an event in Grand Rapids, Michigan on Thursday, Goolsbee said he backed the recent rate cut because the job market is cooling, but remains hesitant about additional rapid policy easing while inflation remains above target and is moving in the wrong direction.

"If we get data that should show we’re on the path to maintain stable full employment and inflation is likely to be coming back down to 2%, I think rates can go down a fair bit more from where they are even now," Goolsbee said. "But I’m just a little uneasy with too much front loading until we’re sure that’s happening."

The Fed official expressed discomfort with the idea of counting on inflation being transitory and emphasized the central bank’s commitment to its inflation target, stating "we will and must get inflation to 2%."

Goolsbee also highlighted the importance of central bank independence, noting that inflation tends to rise when sitting governments can dictate interest rate decisions to central banks.

Source: Yahoo Finance

Consumer prices in Tokyo grew less than expected in September, and held steady from the previous month, while underlying inflation eased, complicating the case of more interest rate hikes by the Bank of Japan.

Tokyo core CPI grew 2.5% year-on-year in September, government data showed on Friday. The print was below expectations of a 2.8% rise, and remained steady compared to the prior month.

A core reading that excludes both fresh food and energy prices eased to 2.5% in September, from 3.0% in the prior month. The reading is closely watched by the Bank of Japan as a gauge of underlying inflation, which remained above the BOJ’s 2% annual target.

Headline Tokyo CPI eased to 2.5% from 2.6% in the previous month.

Tokyo inflation data usually acts as a bellwether for nationwide inflation, with Friday’s data indicating that underlying inflation was cooling, which could complicate the case for further hikes by the BOJ.

The central bank is expected to hike interest rates at least once more this year, but has flagged uncertainty over the Japanese economy, U.S. trade tariffs.

At its latest meeting, the central bank held rates steady at 0.5% but signaled it would scale back purchases of exchange-traded funds and real estate investment trusts. Two members of the board dissented, calling for a hike to 0.75%, reflecting a hawkish tilt.

Source: Investing

Five months ago, British energy major BP was firmly in the spotlight as a prime takeover candidate. Now, not so much.Shares of the London-listed oil giant have climbed more than 32% since early April, outperforming many of its U.S. and European rivals.The improving sentiment can be attributed to a range of factors, including BP's fundamental strategic reset, a leadership shake-up, progress on its cost-cutting program and a string of recent oil discoveries.It marks a stark contrast to earlier in the year, when BP found itself to be the subject of intense takeover speculation, with British rival Shell, UAE oil giant ADNOC and U.S. majors Exxon Mobil and Chevron all among the names touted as possible suitors.

BP CEO Murray Auchincloss insisted the company was focused on growth when asked about any approaches, saying last month: "That's what is going to drive the share price up for shareholders."Shell, for its part, swiftly denied reports in late June that early-stage talks were taking place to acquire BP. The company said at the time that it had "no intention" of making a blockbuster offer for its embattled rival.Allen Good, equity analyst at Morningstar, said he was unsure of the merit of the takeover speculation from the outset, even while the company was in turmoil and trading at a steep discount to its peers.

"Shares have since done better," Good told CNBC. "And I think probably the most recent catalyst was the selection of the new chair, who is coming from CRH and has previous experience with meaningful turnarounds and being successful."Following a green strategy U-turn earlier in the year, BP announced in July the appointment of Albert Manifold as its new chairman. The former boss of building materials producer CRH has since joined the firm's board and will formally become chair from Oct. 1.A BP spokesperson was not immediately available to comment when contacted by CNBC.

Oil discoveries and Elliott's arrival

BP's share price gain has coincided with some notable rating and price target upgrades. Berenberg, for instance, recently upgraded BP to buy from hold and raised its price target to £5.00 ($6.73), from £3.85, citing the firm's significantly stronger second-quarter results.

In early August, BP reported underlying replacement cost profit, used as a proxy for net profit, of $2.35 billion for the three months through June — comfortably beating analyst expectations of $1.81 billion, according to an LSEG-compiled consensus.Speaking to CNBC's "Squawk Box Europe" shortly after these results, BP's Auchincloss highlighted the growth potential of the company's recent oil and gas discoveries, adding that he was "very optimistic" about the discovery in the Bumerangue block in Brazil's Santos Basin, just over 400 kilometers (248.5 miles) from Rio de Janeiro.The discovery marked the firm's 10th since the start of the year and is regarded as a potentially significant boost as BP continues to double down on hydrocarbons.

Russ Mould, investment director at AJ Bell, said BP's resilience in the face of skepticism "is interesting and can be a telling sign," particularly as the share price rise comes despite what he described as "relentlessly negative commentary" on both the company and the oil price."Elliott's arrival on the share register remains a factor, too, as the activist presses for disposals, improved cash flow, deleveraging and improved cash returns to shareholders, a clarion call to which BP appears to be listening," Mould told CNBC by email.

Activist investor Elliott went public with a stake of more than 5% in BP in late April, bolstering expectations that its involvement could pressure the company to shift back toward its core oil and gas businesses.Given Shell's reported interest in a takeover appears to have cooled, Mould said BP's best defense to any potential suitors would be a higher share price and an improved valuation."Valuation, or the price paid, is the ultimate arbiter of investment return and the more they have to stump up, the less likely predators are to appear, as higher valuations limit upside potential and increase downside risks should anything unexpected go wrong," Mould said.

Debt burden

Looking ahead, energy analysts singled out BP's relatively high debt burden as a potential cause for concern, however.BP's net debt came in at $26.04 billion at the end of the second quarter, down from nearly $27 billion in the first three months of the year."If you get a situation where oil prices start falling, then they are certainly the most exposed in the peer group," Morningstar's Good said. "So, that would be something that could derail this momentum."

Source: CNBC

Engines and cabs of Peterbilt trucks in Mississippi in 2014. President Donald Trump announced heavy truck tariffs on Thursday.

President Donald Trump on Thursday announced sweeping tariffs on various household products, including imported kitchen cabinets and certain kinds of furniture – potentially adding even more costs to a category that has surged in price in recent months. Trump also announced heavy truck tariffs and pharmaceutical tariffs Thursday.

“We will be imposing a 50% Tariff on all Kitchen Cabinets, Bathroom Vanities, and associated products, starting October 1st, 2025. Additionally, we will be charging a 30% Tariff on Upholstered Furniture,” Trump wrote in a Truth Social post Thursday evening.

Various tariffs that Trump has imposed have already boosted furniture prices considerably over the past year. Overall, furniture last month cost 4.7% more than in August 2024, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics. Living room and dining room furniture in particular has grown more expensive – rising 9.5% over the past 12 months, the BLS reported.

Furniture prices have surged as Trump hiked tariffs on China and Vietnam, the top two sources of imported furniture. Both countries exported $12 billion worth of furniture and fixtures last year, according to US Commerce Department data.

Furniture prices had largely fallen for the past two and a half years prior to Trump’s tariffs. But Trump said Thursday that foreign manufacturers have oversupplied the US market, and the tariffs were necessary to regain US manufacturing prowess.

“The reason for this is the large scale ‘FLOODING’ of these products into the United States by other outside Countries,” Trump said. “It is a very unfair practice, but we must protect, for National Security and other reasons, our Manufacturing process.”

Shares of Wayfair (W), RH (RH) and Williams-Sonoma (WSM) tumbled in after-hours trading.

Trucks

Trump on Thursday also announced a 25% tariff on heavy trucks imported into the United States, a trade levy designed to level the playing field for America’s truck-making industry that has been hit relentlessly by the White House’s compounding tariffs.

“In order to protect our Great Heavy Truck Manufacturers from unfair outside competition, I will be imposing, as of October 1st, 2025, a 25% Tariff on all ‘Heavy (Big!) Trucks’ made in other parts of the World,” Trump said in a Truth Social post Thursday.

Previous tariffs that Trump has levied — including 50% tariffs on steel, aluminum and copper — have \raised costs considerably for US truck manufacturers. Foreign-built trucks, including those made by Germany’s Daimler Truck and International Motors, are typically manufactured in Mexico and imported tariff-free because of the US-Mexico-Canada free trade agreement — so long as roughly two-thirds of the truck’s parts were made in North America.

Tariffs were, in part, designed to boost US manufacturing and give American factories a leg up over foreign-made products. But steel and aluminum tariffs have shifted the supply-demand balance, raising the price of all metals — both imported and domestic. That means Trump’s tariffs have made some US-built trucks more costly than trucks made by foreign manufacturers.

“Our Great Large Truck Company Manufacturers, such as Peterbilt, Kenworth, Freightliner, Mack Trucks, and others, will be protected from the onslaught of outside interruptions,” Trump said in his post on Thursday. “We need our Truckers to be financially healthy and strong, for many reasons, but above all else, for National Security purposes!”

It’s not clear, however, whether the 25% tariff would apply to all heavy-duty trucks or only those that do not comply with the US-Mexico-Canada Agreement.

Thursday’s announcement follows an investigation that Trump ordered the Commerce Department to begin in April to determine whether medium-duty and heavy-duty trucks imports pose a national security threat.

Trump has also threatened several other tariffs, including lumber, semiconductors and other products.

Source: Yahoo Finance

President Donald Trump on Thursday announced a new round of punishing tariffs, saying the United States will impose a 100% tariffs on imported branded drugs, 25% tariff on imports of all heavy-duty trucks and 50% tariffs on kitchen cabinets.Trump also said he would start charging a 30% tariff on upholstered furniture next week.

He said the new heavy-duty truck tariffs were to protect manufacturers from "unfair outside competition" and said the move would benefit companies such as Paccar-owned Peterbilt and Kenworth and Daimler Truck-owned Freightliner.Trump has launched numerous national security probes into potential new tariffs on a wide variety of products.He said the new tariffs on kitchen, bathroom and some furniture were because of huge levels of imports which were hurting local manufacturers."The reason for this is the large scale “FLOODING” of these products into the United States by other outside Countries," Trump said, citing national security concerns about U.S. manufacturing.

The U.S. Chamber of Commerce urged the department not to impose new tariffs, noting the top five import sources are Mexico, Canada, Japan, Germany, and Finland "all of which are allies or close partners of the United States posing no threat to U.S. national security."Mexico is the largest exporter of medium- and heavy-duty trucks to the United States. A study released in January said imports of those larger vehicles from Mexico have tripled since 2019.Higher tariffs on commercial vehicles could put pressure on transportation costs just as Trump has vowed to reduce inflation, especially on consumer goods such as groceries.

Tariffs could also affect Chrysler-parent Stellantis which produces heavy-duty Ram trucks and commercial vans in Mexico. Sweden's Volvo Group is building a $700 million heavy-truck factory in Monterrey, Mexico, due to start operations in 2026.Mexico is home to 14 manufacturers and assemblers of buses, trucks, and tractor trucks, and two manufacturers of engines, according to the U.S. International Trade Administration.The country is also the leading global exporter of tractor trucks, 95% of which are destined for the United States."We need our Truckers to be financially healthy and strong, for many reasons, but above all else, for National Security purposes!," Trump added.

Mexico opposed new tariffs, telling the Commerce Department in May that all Mexican trucks exported to the United States have on average 50% U.S. content, including diesel engines.Last year, the United States imported almost $128 billion in heavy vehicle parts from Mexico, accounting for approximately 28% of total U.S. imports, Mexico said.The Japanese Automobile Manufacturers Association also opposed new tariffs, saying Japanese companies have cut exports to the United States as they have boosted U.S. production of medium- and heavy-duty trucks.

Source: Reuters