Federal Reserve Governor Advocates Urgent Rate Cuts Amid Tensions

Russian forces have suffered over 300,000 casualties so far in 2025 and over 1 million since the war began.The Russian military is advancing across several axes of advance in Ukraine. Russia’s gains are not groundbreaking, but they are gains. Russian progress, however, does not come cheap. The Russian forces have suffered over 300,000 casualties so far in 2025 and over 1 million since the war began.

Russian Casualty Trends

According to the latest intelligence estimate by the British Ministry of Defence, the Russian forces have likely sustained approximately 332,000 casualties, including killed and wounded troops, so far in 2025. In comparison, Russia lost approximately 420,000 troops in 2024.According to the Ukrainian General Staff, an average of 950 Russian troops have been killed and wounded every day. This marks an increase from the reported Russian losses in August, when the Russian military, paramilitary units, and pro-Russian separatist forces lost an average of 931 troops killed and wounded every day. Moreover, since March, the Russian average daily casualties have been steadily decreasing.

“Russia’s decreased monthly casualty rate has been sustained at the same time as Russian forces have maintained a high operational tempo across the frontline, and Russia has continued to make incremental territorial gains,” the British Ministry of Defence concluded in its latest intelligence assessment.The most likely explanation for this decrease in casualties at a time of territorial progress is a change in tactics. It seems that Russian commanders are replacing mass infantry attacks with more sophisticated tactics that even verge on combined arms warfare.However, October seems to be particularly deadly for the Russian forces thus far. The Russian military has lost an average of over 1,000 troops killed or wounded in seven days.

Interesting Casualty Facts

Overall, the Russian military, paramilitary units, and pro-Russian separatist forces have suffered approximately 1,118,000 losses since Russia launched the large-scale invasion of Ukraine on February 24, 2022.

In over three years of fighting, the Russian forces have lost more than five times the initial invasion force, which numbered approximately 200,000 men. With a doubt, the Kremlin’s “special military operation,” at least in its initial conception, has failed. Russian military and intelligence officials expected a quick campaign that would last between three days and two weeks. Pre-invasion intelligence assessments estimated that the Ukrainian people would welcome the invading Russian troops with open arms and flowers. In reality, however, invading Russian troops were met with FIM-92 Stinger and FGM-148 Javelin missiles.

The month with the highest number of daily average losses is December 2024, when the Russian forces lost an average of 1,570 men killed and wounded every day. That is an absurdly high level of losses for a supposedly sophisticated military force. The month with the lowest losses is June 2022, when the Russian forces lost an average of 172 troops killed and wounded every day.

Overall, the Russian forces have lost an average of more than 1,000 men daily over the last 15 months. Moreover, in five out of those months, the Russian forces lost an average of over 1,300 troops. In comparison, a US Army or Marine Corps battalion has up to 1,000 men. Thus, the Russian military has been losing a battalion worth of troops every day for more than 15 months.In addition, the Russian forces have lost an average of more than 800 men daily for 23 months.

Source: The National Interest

Australia’s unemployment rate spiked unexpectedly to a near four-year high in September as more people went looking for work, while employment bounced only modestly, a weak reading that adds to the case for further cuts in interest rates.

Figures from the Australian Bureau of Statistics out on Thursday showed net employment rose 14,900 in September from August, when it fell a revised 11,800. That was under market forecasts of a 20,000 gain, while full-time jobs edged up 8,700 after a steep drop the previous month.

The jobless rate jumped to 4.5%, the highest since November 2021, against forecasts of a rise to 4.3%, while the participation rate ticked up to 67.0%. Hours worked rose 0.5%, reversing a drop in August.

Source: Investing

Santos Ltd. trimmed its natural gas production outlook, citing a software failure that stalled a key export project and the impact from floodwaters in Australia.The major supplier of LNG to buyers in Asia expects output of 89 million to 91 million barrels of oil equivalent in 2025, down from 90 million to 95 million previously, it said in a quarterly report Thursday. That’s still higher than the 87.1 million the company produced in 2024.

The cut comes as Santos faces increased investor scrutiny, following the collapse of a $19 billion takeover approach from an Abu Dhabi National Oil Co.-led group last month. Furthermore, the Adelaide-based company earlier this week announced the resignation of its chief financial officer, who was widely seen as a front runner to replace current Chief Executive Officer Kevin Gallagher, and is facing criticism over a methane leak at its Darwin LNG facility.

Santos said the output growth downgrade came after the floating production and storage facility at its recently started Barossa project had a two-week unplanned shutdown as a result of a software issue in September. Gas started flowing into the pipeline to the Darwin plant earlier this week, and production of LNG is expected to start in the coming weeks.Meanwhile, floods in the Cooper Basin straddling Queensland and South Australia have reduced domestic production. About 155 wells remain offline as floodwaters recede more slowly than expected, and recovery efforts will extend into the fourth quarter, it said.

“Last-minute hiccups at Barossa have triggered the production downgrade and, while disappointing, should not be material to valuation,” Jarden Group analysts Nik Burns and Joshua Mills-Bayne said in a note. “We were cautious on 2025 guidance going into the quarter, with everything needing to go right in our view to maintain the prior guidance range. We expect consensus earnings downgrades to follow.”Santos shares were up 0.2% at 11:25 a.m. in Sydney, after closing at their lowest since May on Wednesday. The company has fallen more than 5% this year.

Source: Bloomberg Europe

Nothing about the largely empty stretch of land on the outskirts of Manila hints at how it produced a vast overnight fortune. Or a staggering writedown.But that’s what unfolded after Manuel Villar, the richest man in the Philippines, moved the land from one part of his corporate group to another and announced its value had shot up to $23.3 billion, from a mere $93 million.The mind-boggling gain, disclosed in March by Villar’s publicly traded Golden MV Holdings Inc., perplexed Manila’s financial community. Auditors balked, regulators halted the stock and opened an investigation, and Golden MV eventually agreed to write down the value by 99%.

“It is entirely ok to have gains moved between entities that are related parties,” said Miguel Angel Minutti-Meza, accounting department chair at the University of Miami’s Herbert Business School. But “it is not clear why this transaction was done and this raises some questions.”Five months on, the stock still isn’t trading. Regulators say Golden MV first must submit audited financial results that include the land. The company has said the audit is underway and that it didn’t break any rules, but it has left investors guessing about the math.

The episode has triggered fresh scrutiny of the business empire that propelled Villar from the slums to the country’s elite, with a fortune valued by the Bloomberg Billionaires Index at $22.9 billion. Golden MV, which develops cemeteries, memorial parks and low-cost housing and has less than $100 million in annual revenue, trades at more than 1,000 times earnings on the Philippine stock exchange. Villar and parties related to him control 89% of the float.The nation’s Securities and Exchange Commission has fined the company and its senior executives and directors for failing to file financial results on time, and says it’s still considering whether to file criminal charges. Golden MV has appealed.

Last week, after inquiries by Bloomberg News, Villar representatives gave a tour of the land. It’s in the heart of Villar City — the billionaire’s signature real estate project that he kicked off two years ago — and it will play a central role in the project, Golden MV said last year.Golden MV, which is being renamed Villar Land, declined to answer Bloomberg’s questions about the deal. The company said in filings in recent months that the gain was recorded and disclosed in good faith and that it’s the “protracted review process of the external auditor” that is delaying its financials, rather than neglect or omission by directors or officers.

In front of the Brittany Hotel on Manila’s southern edge lies a panorama of bushy plains with a number of roads and residential developments. It’s part of the 366 hectares (904 acres) of land at the center of the huge gain and subsequent writedown.The land is part of what the billionaire calls Villar City — a plan to transform a cluster of cities, roughly half the size of Manhattan, into the capital’s “new center of gravity.” The plans include a university, shopping malls, office buildings and enough housing to boost its population to 9 million from about 2 million currently.

It’s Villar’s capstone project in a career largely built on real estate.

Born in Tondo, a neighborhood near the city harbor, Villar sold fish and shrimp in the local market to help pay for school. After graduating with an MBA from the University of the Philippines, he bought trucks to haul sand and gravel to construction sites and then moved into homebuilding.He founded Golden MV in 1982 and grew it into one of the Philippines’ largest chains of cemeteries and memorial parks — a big business in the Catholic country. He also developed affordable housing and later expanded into banking, department stores and supermarkets.

On Sept. 30, 2024, Golden MV paid $93 million to acquire three closely held entities controlled by Villar. Each held bits of the land. The price reflected the entities’ book value — assets minus liabilities — filings show.Six months later, Golden MV released a preview of its annual results. They included the land valued under the “fair value” accounting method, showing it had shot up 25,000% to $23.3 billion. The company booked it as a one-time gain, lifting its 2024 net income to $17.2 billion — a record for the Philippines and beating global giants like Goldman Sachs Group Inc. and Morgan Stanley.

It’s customary for companies to value newly acquired land under the fair value method, said the University of Miami’s Minutti-Meza. The difference between that and book value can be huge, he said, but the figure must be grounded in valuation models and techniques verified by external auditors.“I do not know why, or who advised them,” Wilson Tan, chairman of the Philippine Financial and Sustainability Reporting Standards Council, said of the paper gain booked by Golden MV. From a technical accounting perspective, the gain might be sound, he said, “but from a business perspective?”

Asset valuation firm EValue Phils, Inc. helped Golden MV appraise the land, filings show. But Golden MV’s auditor, a member firm of Grant Thornton International, wouldn’t endorse it. EValue declined to comment, while the auditor didn’t respond to a request for comment.The audit dragged on, preventing Golden MV from filing results for 2024 and the first and second quarter of 2025. The company eventually agreed to value the entities holding the land at-cost, bringing the total value down to $148 million, according to a regulatory filing.

This prompted more questions. Why would a billionaire who’s been in real estate for decades record a huge gain and then reverse course?Some analysts said it may have been a sound move if Villar was looking to issue, sell or pledge shares, or boost Golden MV’s assets to meet loan covenants. But the stock fell after the gain was disclosed, and analysts said banks would be unlikely to take property’s price gain at face value.

Whatever the reason, the restated value of $148 million is more realistic considering market conditions and the area’s potential, said Sheila Lobien, founder and chief executive officer of real estate consultancy Lobien Realty Group in Manila. “Execution will matter more than headline valuations,” she said.Golden MV has yet to assuage both its auditor and the SEC. The regulator in August said the company’s release of unaudited financials showed “a clear disregard for its regulatory obligations” and imposed a $400,000 one-time fine and a smaller daily fee that accumulates until the audited results are submitted.

Golden MV’s appeal is still pending. It hasn’t said when it expects to file its results.“They are basically saying they cannot be penalized because they acted in good faith because they had to resolve the issue with the external auditor,” said SEC chair Francis Lim. “If you start bending rules because personalities involved are powerful already, our market integrity will always be a dream.”

Source: Bloomberg Europe

EUR/JPY printed a hammer candlestick yesterday just above a key support level hinting at a potential bullish continuation. The bullish daily candle close also came after three successive days in the red but today has seen price action fail to build on yesterday’s momentum.EUR/JPY has pushed lower testing the lows printed yesterday. What does the pair have in store for market participants in the coming days? Let us take a look.

Japanese Yen: Geopolitical Safety Bid vs. Domestic Instability

The Japanese Yen (JPY) is currently getting stronger, but this strength is based on fear and is likely to be temporary.The yen’s recent gains is likely because market participants are scared by the rising trade tensions between the US and China, which now includes new shipping fees and tariff threats. This global “risk-off” mood, which is also pushing gold prices to records, makes investors put money into the yen because it’s traditionally considered a safe-haven.

However, this rise is unstable due to problems in Japan. The currency’s gains are limited by political uncertainty following the collapse of the ruling party’s coalition. More importantly, the likely new Prime Minister, Sanae Takaichi, has in the past indicated she may interfere with the Bank of Japan’s (BOJ) decision to potentially hike interest rates.Market participants think this political interference will prevent the BOJ from raising rates which is what the yen needs to get stronger. We have already seen rate hike expectations take a significant hit following the election, based on the latest LSEG data.

These developments are weighing on the Yen and may do so over the medium-term, hinting at potential gains for the Euro.

Political Instability Affecting the Euro

The euro’s path right now seems stuck because the Eurozone looks shaky.France, for example, saw its prime minister step down, and the country is wrestling with the biggest budget deficit any Euro‑area nation has had in years. That kind of political mess may mean higher risk for investors.

Because of that the spread between French OATs and German Bunds has started to widen. In other words, lenders ask for a bigger premium to hold French debt. The market reads this as a sign that the whole bloc could be under pressure. So the euro’s ability to ride out outside shocks looks weaker, which may push the EUR/JPY pair lower.

Looking Ahead – Beyond the Data

Over the next ten days or so we have a host of data releases which could stoke volatility in EURJPY. However, many of these data releases will likely lead to short-term moves.The political developments in France and Japan may have a bigger impact on the overall direction of the pair, especially regarding BoJ policy. Keep an eye out for any major announcement in that regard in the coming days.

For all market-moving economic releases and events

Technical Analysis – EUR/JPY

From a technical point of view, EUR/JPY is resting above a key support level which was the recent swing high around the 175.00 handle.If this level holds there is every chance that EUR/JPY may revisit the YTD high from October 9, resting at 177.92.A break of that handle could open up a run toward the psychological 180.00 handle and beyond.A break of support at the 175.00 handle may open up a deeper retracement with a key level resting at 173.89 before the long-term ascending trendline and the 100-day MA which rests at 171.32 comes into focus.

EUR/JPY Daily Chart, October 15, 2025

Source: TradingView.com

Source: MarketPulse by OANDA Group

U.S. President Donald Trump said on Wednesday that Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi told him that the country will wind down its buying of Russian oil amid pressure from Washington over Moscow’s war with Ukraine.

“I was not happy that India was buying oil, and he (Modi) assured me today that they will not be buying oil from Russia,” Trump told reporters during an event at the White House, adding that India will gradually reduce its oil buying.

Trump added that he would try to get China to do the same, amid growing mounting criticism of New Delhi and Beijing for buying Russian crude and allegedly funding Russia’s war effort.

“All we want from President Putin is to… stop killing Ukraines, stop killing Russians. It doesn’t make him look good,” Trump said.

India and Russia are the two largest buyers of Russian oil, as they took advantage of discounted prices Russia had been forced to offer after Western buyers ceased purchases over Russia’s invasion of Moscow in 2022.

Trump had lambasted India and China over their buying, and had in August slapped India with a 50% trade tariff.

Trump’s announcement comes just days after his pick for Indian ambassador, Sergio Gor, met Modi in India.

India will likely have to buy oil at higher prices from other importers. But an ongoing rout in oil prices is expected to lessen this blow.

Source: Investing