Fed Rate Cut Optimism, Safe-haven Demand Fuel Gold's Rally Beyond $4,200

Economic

Commodity

Summary:

Gold breaches $4,200/oz for the first time; Trump mulls ending some trade ties with China; Fed's Powell says economy may be on firmer footing, but job market weak; Analyst expects the bull run in gold to continue.

Gold extended its rally to breach $4,200-per-ounce for the first time on Wednesday on expectations of more U.S. interest rate cuts, while broader economic and geopolitical uncertainty also led investors to buy the safe-haven metal.

Spot goldwas up 1.6% at $4,209.49 per ounce as of 0829 GMT, after touching a record high of $4,217.95 earlier in the session. U.S. gold futuresfor December delivery gained 1.5% to $4,227.60.

Gold has risen about 60% so far this year, fuelled by geopolitical and economic uncertainties, expectations of U.S. rate cuts, strong central bank buying, a broader de-dollarisation trend and robust exchange-traded fund inflows.

"Prolongation of the US government shutdown, more dovish comments from Fed officials, and the continued escalation of trade tensions between the U.S. and China are likely to support further gains in gold prices," said ActivTrades analyst Ricardo Evangelista.

"Reaching the $5,000 level does not seem impossible in the medium to long term."

The U.S. dollar dropped against a basket of peers on Wednesday after comments from Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell bolstered bets on a series of rate cuts in coming months.

Traders are pricing in a 25 basis-point cut in October with another in December, seen as 96% and 93% chances respectively. (FEDWATCH)

Meanwhile, U.S. President Donald Trump said Washington was considering cutting some trade ties with China, after both countries began imposing tit-for-tat port fees on Tuesday.

Markets are also closely monitoring the risks related to the ongoing government shutdown in the United States and political turmoil in France and Japan.

Gold, traditionally seen as a hedge against political and economic uncertainty and inflation, also tends to do well in low-interest rate environments.

"We are expecting the bull run in gold to continue," said Soni Kumari, a commodity strategist at ANZ.

On a technical basis, gold's Relative Strength Index (RSI) stands at 85, indicating the metal is overbought.

Silverrose 2.7% to $52.81, after having hit a record high of $53.60 on Tuesday, tracking gold's rally and amid tightening supply in the spot market.

Elsewhere, platinumclimbed 1.7% to $1,665.15 and palladiumrose 1.6% to $1,550.50.

Source: TradingView

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Gerik

Economic

U.S. Treasury yields are expected to stay elevated in the long term as inflation remains stubbornly high and government debt continues to swell. While the Federal Reserve may implement rate cuts, particularly on short-term Treasury yields, the longer end of the yield curve is expected to resist downward pressure due to these ongoing challenges. A recent Reuters poll of 75 bond strategists revealed that despite potential Fed rate cuts, long-term yields are unlikely to see significant declines in the coming year.

Impact of Inflation and Fiscal Deficits

High inflation has been a persistent issue, remaining well above the Fed's 2% target, which has made it difficult for the central bank to ease policy substantially. The poll respondents noted that inflationary pressures, coupled with increasing deficits, are likely to keep long-term yields high. U.S. President Donald Trump’s aggressive tax and spending reforms are projected to add more than $3 trillion to the national debt over the next decade, further complicating the U.S. fiscal outlook.

While the Federal Reserve is expected to cut rates, analysts are cautious about the potential risks of easing too aggressively. Many believe that excessive rate cuts could reignite inflationary pressures, leading to a further increase in yields. The Fed’s ongoing struggles to manage the balance between curbing inflation and maintaining economic growth, especially amid a government shutdown that has halted key data releases, add to the uncertainty in economic policymaking.

Yield Curve Steepening

The forecast for U.S. Treasury yields suggests that the yield curve will steepen over the next year. The spread between the 10-year and 2-year Treasury yields is expected to widen from 50 basis points to 82 basis points by the end of 2025. This steepening reflects the continued resilience of the economy and the persistent inflation premium investors are demanding, as short-term rates are kept low while longer-term rates remain elevated due to inflation and fiscal concerns.

While expectations of rate cuts by the Federal Reserve may push short-term Treasury yields lower, long-term yields are likely to remain elevated due to persistent inflation, rising government debt, and economic uncertainty. These factors are expected to keep the yield curve steep, with investors demanding a higher risk premium for holding longer-term debt. As inflation and fiscal pressures continue, policymakers face a challenging balancing act in managing the U.S. economy’s stability and avoiding future economic missteps.

Source: Reuters

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Gerik

Economic

Pakistan and the International Monetary Fund (IMF) have reached a staff-level agreement that will release $1.2 billion from a $7 billion bailout package approved by the IMF in July 2024. The deal aims to help Pakistan avoid defaulting on its debt repayments and stabilize its economy amid ongoing challenges, including devastating floods and climate-related risks.

The IMF stated that Pakistan’s economic program has been instrumental in ensuring macroeconomic stability and rebuilding market confidence. This agreement comes after several days of talks in Islamabad, with both the IMF and Pakistan reaffirming their commitment to stabilizing the country’s financial situation. The release of funds is expected to support Pakistan’s efforts in maintaining fiscal discipline and securing the country’s economic future.

The deal follows Pakistan’s call for the IMF to consider additional concessions due to the devastating floods that struck the country in recent months. These floods killed over 1,000 people and affected around 7 million individuals, exacerbating Pakistan’s economic difficulties. The IMF acknowledged the significant impact of the floods and highlighted Pakistan’s vulnerability to natural disasters and climate-related risks. In response, the IMF stressed the importance of building climate resilience to mitigate the economic and human costs of such disasters.

The agreement between Pakistan and the IMF marks a crucial step in Pakistan's efforts to stabilize its economy and avoid further financial strain. While the economic challenges persist, particularly in light of the recent floods, the release of the $1.2 billion will provide much-needed support for Pakistan's recovery and future growth. The IMF’s emphasis on climate resilience highlights the growing importance of addressing environmental risks in the region’s economic planning.

Source: Reuters

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Gerik

Economic

The U.S. government shutdown, which has halted the flow of official economic data, is beginning to cast a long shadow over global economic policymaking. The U.S. economy, accounting for about a quarter of global output, plays a crucial role in shaping the outlook for other nations. With key data unavailable, such as jobs reports and inflation statistics, central banks and policymakers in countries like Japan, the UK, and beyond are finding it increasingly difficult to make informed decisions.

Impact on Global Policymaking

The loss of reliable U.S. economic data is particularly concerning for countries that rely heavily on U.S. economic trends to shape their own monetary and fiscal policies. Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda expressed frustration with the situation, noting that it complicates the BOJ’s decision-making process on interest rate hikes. Similarly, Bank of England officials acknowledged that while trade policy is a more direct concern for the UK, the lack of U.S. data adds to uncertainty about economic developments globally.

The IMF’s latest World Economic Outlook (WEO) highlighted the broader consequences of this data void, noting that it increases the likelihood of policy mistakes. The report stressed that political interference in U.S. data collection, including President Trump’s attempts to influence the Federal Reserve and his firing of the Bureau of Labor Statistics head, has eroded trust in U.S. data reliability, further complicating global policymaking.

Rising Risk of Economic Errors

As the shutdown drags on, there is growing concern that policymakers will be forced to make decisions based on incomplete or unreliable information. This has heightened the risk of errors, which could lead to miscalculations in economic strategy. Robert Kahn from Eurasia Group noted that while private data services and anecdotal evidence are helping fill the gaps, the risk of error increases as the uncertainties pile up.

For countries heavily reliant on U.S. data for their monetary policy decisions, such as those in the eurozone and Asia, this lack of information is a significant issue. The uncertainty surrounding the U.S. economy could affect everything from trade negotiations to interest rate decisions, with markets reacting more sharply to any developments that could indicate a shift in the U.S. economic landscape.

The IMF’s Updated Global Growth Outlook

Despite the disruptions caused by the U.S. shutdown, the IMF has slightly upgraded its global growth forecast for 2025 to 3.2%, up from its earlier projection of 2.8%. This recovery was aided by resilient global trade and economic activity, particularly through September. However, the ongoing data gap means that future forecasts could become increasingly uncertain if the shutdown persists, with global growth projections remaining subject to revision.

The U.S. government shutdown is not just a domestic issue but a global one, as it prevents the release of crucial economic data that informs policy decisions worldwide. With the U.S. accounting for a significant portion of global economic activity, the data void creates uncertainty and heightens the risk of policy mistakes. As policymakers scramble to fill the gaps with limited information, the global economic outlook remains clouded, with risks mounting the longer the shutdown continues.

Source: Reuters

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Samantha Luan

Commodity

Forex

Economic

Key Points:

● Spot gold breaks the $4,200/oz mark with economic impacts.

● Gold's rise influences crypto hedge narratives.

● Fed's policy stance is pivotal to market adjustments.

Spot gold surpassed $4,200 per ounce on October 15, 2025, marking a new all-time high driven by expectations of U.S. Federal Reserve rate cuts and trade tensions.This milestone affects global markets, particularly impacting cryptocurrencies like Bitcoin and Ethereum as traders seek alternative hedges amidst macroeconomic uncertainty.

Gold Surges Over $4,200/oz Amid Fed's Flexible Stance

Gold's ascent past $4,200/oz marks a historic achievement, driven by expectations of potential U.S. Federal Reserve policy shifts. Economic variables, including trade tensions, heavily influenced this rise. Jerome Powell, chair of the Federal Reserve, emphasized policy adaptability. Spot gold experienced an increase of nearly 1.4% intraday, indicating ongoing confidence.Gold’s leap suggests a strategic shift among investors towards traditional safe-haven assets, amid macroeconomic uncertainties. The rise emphasizes a cautious approach in equity and bond investments.

"The Fed stands ready to adjust policy to address risks as they evolve." — Jerome Powell, Chairman, U.S. Federal Reserve

Source: CryptoSlate

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Alex

Cryptocurrency

How to Read Crypto Charts: Decode Trends, Patterns, and Price Signals

Learning how to read crypto charts is essential for anyone interested in cryptocurrency trading or investing. Crypto charts provide a visual display of price movements, trends, and market sentiment, helping traders make informed decisions. This guide covers the basics of different chart types, including candlestick and price charts, and explains how to interpret key patterns and indicators. By mastering these skills, you can better understand market behavior, identify trading opportunities, and improve your overall strategy. Whether you’re a beginner or looking to sharpen your skills, this introduction lays the foundation for successful crypto trading.

Part 1: What is a Crypto Chart

Crypto charts are essential tools that visually represent the price movements and trading behavior of cryptocurrencies over time. They enable traders and investors to analyze market trends, identify trading opportunities, and manage risk effectively.

Functions of Crypto Charts

Visualizing Price Movements: Display historical and current prices in various timeframes.
Trend Identification: Help recognize bullish or bearish market trends.
Support & Resistance Identification: Reveal key price levels that act as psychological barriers.
Risk Management: Aid setting stop-loss and take-profit levels.
Combining Data: Integrate price with volume, technical indicators, and even news events to improve trading decisions.

Basic Components of Crypto Charts

Timeframe: Determines the period each data point represents, ranging from minutes (e.g., 1m, 5m) to days or weeks. Choose based on trading style.
Price Axis (Y-axis): Displays cryptocurrency price levels, often updated in real time.
Time Axis (X-axis): Shows the flow of time corresponding to each price point.
Volume Bars: Located typically at the bottom, indicating the trading activity and confirming price moves.
Trendlines & Support/Resistance Levels: Lines drawn to capture direction and key price zones where buying or selling pressure concentrates.

Part 2: How to Read Crypto Price Chartas

3 Essential Crypto Chart Types

Line Chart: Simple Trend Overview
Bar Chart: Detailed Price Data
Candlestick Chart: The Most Popular Chart Type

How to Read a Line Chart

A line chart is the simplest way to visualize crypto price movements over time. It connects the closing prices of each period with a continuous line, showing the general direction of the market.

How to Read Crypto Charts for Beginners [Ultimate Guide]_1

To read a line chart, focus on the slope of the line:

An upward slope indicates a bullish trend (prices are rising).
A downward slope signals a bearish trend (prices are falling).
A flat or sideways line means the market is consolidating.

Line charts are ideal for beginners learning how to read crypto charts, as they strip away noise and highlight the overall market direction. However, they don’t show intraday details like highs or lows, so they’re best used for long-term trend analysis.

How to Read a Bar Chart (OHLC)

A bar chart, also known as an OHLC chart (Open, High, Low, Close), gives more detail than a line chart. Each vertical bar represents one time period—showing the range between the highest and lowest prices, plus small horizontal lines marking the open and close.

How to Read Crypto Charts for Beginners [Ultimate Guide]_2

Here’s how to interpret it:

The left tick on the bar shows the opening price.
The right tick marks the closing price.
The top and bottom of the bar show the highest and lowest prices in that period.

If the closing price is higher than the opening, the bar is bullish; if lower, it’s bearish. Learning how to read crypto charts with bar charts helps investors measure volatility, momentum, and price strength across different sessions.

How to Read a Candlestick Chart

The candlestick chart is the most popular format for crypto traders because it clearly visualizes market sentiment. Each “candle” shows four price points—open, high, low, and close—like a bar chart, but with color-filled bodies.

How to Read Crypto Charts for Beginners [Ultimate Guide]_3

Here’s how to read a candlestick:

Green (or hollow) candles mean price closed higher than it opened (bullish).
Red (or filled) candles mean price closed lower than it opened (bearish).
The “wicks” above and below the body show price extremes during the period.

Candlestick charts reveal not just price direction but also market psychology. Long bodies mean strong buying or selling; long wicks signal rejection or indecision. Mastering how to read crypto charts through candlestick patterns—like “doji,” “hammer,” or “engulfing”—helps investors identify reversals, momentum shifts, and breakout points.

Part 3: How to Read Crypto Trading Charts

Reading crypto trading charts effectively isn’t about memorizing patterns — it’s about understanding how market data, psychology, and external events interact on the chart. Whether you’re a long-term investor or a short-term trader, these five steps help you interpret charts with clarity and confidence.

Step 1: Identify the Chart Type & Timeframe

Every chart type tells a slightly different story.

Line charts reveal long-term direction and are best for portfolio investors.
Bar (OHLC) charts show intraperiod volatility for swing traders.
Candlestick charts highlight market emotion and reversal signals for active traders.

Then choose a timeframe that fits your style:

Daily or weekly charts show macro trends, while 5-minute or 1-hour charts capture short-term price moves.

Consistency matters — a bullish signal on the daily chart has more weight than a short spike on the 5-minute view.

Step 2: Read Trend, Momentum & Market Structure

The first task when learning how to read crypto charts is to find direction.

An uptrend = higher highs + higher lows.
A downtrend = lower highs + lower lows.
A sideways market = consolidation zone, often before a breakout.

Look for how strong each swing is — large candles and long bars show conviction; short, choppy ones show hesitation.

Use trendlines, moving averages, or channels to confirm structure and visualize the market rhythm.

Step 3: Measure Volume & Volatility

Price tells you what happened; volume tells you how strong it was. When price rises with high volume, it signals real buying power. If it falls on low volume, it may simply be profit-taking. Watch volume spikes near support or resistance — they often foreshadow breakouts. Meanwhile, volatility shows the market’s emotional state.

Wide candles = high volatility (fear / greed).
Tight candles = calm consolidation.

Learning how to read crypto trading charts includes connecting these data points — price, volume, and volatility — to understand whether momentum is accelerating or fading.

Step 4: Spot Key Levels & Patterns

Crypto charts mirror collective behavior. Identify support (where buyers step in) and resistance (where sellers take profits). Combine those with recognizable patterns such as:

Double Top / Double Bottom → potential reversal
Ascending Triangle → bullish continuation
Head & Shoulders → trend exhaustion

Patterns don’t predict the future — they illustrate trader psychology: fear, hope, and confirmation bias. That’s why experienced investors use them as context, not as trading signals alone.

Charts don’t exist in isolation. Always relate technical readings to broader factors:

Macro forces → interest rates, regulation, liquidity
Market sentiment → funding rates, fear & greed index
Cross-asset signals → Bitcoin vs Altcoins dominance

By blending technical analysis with these dimensions, you turn raw visuals into multi-layered insight — the key skill behind professional-grade chart reading.

Part 4: How to Read a Depth Chart Crypto

A crypto depth chart visualizes the supply and demand in a market by showing all current buy and sell orders for a particular cryptocurrency. Unlike price charts that display historical movements, a depth chart shows real-time market sentiment—who wants to buy, who wants to sell, and at what price. Understanding how to read a crypto depth chart helps investors evaluate liquidity, potential volatility, and support or resistance levels before making a trade.

1. What a Crypto Depth Chart Shows

A depth chart typically consists of two lines:

Green (Buy Orders / Bids): This side shows how much demand exists below the current market price. The x-axis represents price levels, and the y-axis shows the cumulative quantity of buy orders.
Red (Sell Orders / Asks): This side represents the total amount sellers are willing to sell above the current market price.

At the center of the chart is the market equilibrium, where the highest bid meets the lowest ask—this intersection defines the current trading price.

2. How to Read Key Areas on a Depth Chart

Steep Walls: A sharp vertical rise on either side means many orders are stacked at that price. A large buy wall indicates strong demand that could prevent prices from falling; a large sell wall suggests resistance that may block further price increases.
Flat Sections: A smooth slope without many orders implies thin liquidity—prices can move quickly with small trades.

Gaps Between Walls: The larger the gap between buy and sell walls, the lower the market liquidity and the higher the potential volatility.

Conclusion

Learning how to read crypto charts isn’t just about spotting patterns—it’s about understanding what drives them. By combining price, volume, and market sentiment, investors can make informed decisions instead of emotional ones. Use clear strategies, manage risk, and rely on data rather than hype—this is how chart reading turns into smarter crypto trading.

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Samantha Luan

Economic

Commodity

Forex

New data from Plastics the Fast Facts 2025 shows the European plastics industry losing competitiveness as global rivals expand.European plastics production in 2024 edged up 0.4% to 54.6 million tonnes after a 7.6% contraction in 2023, yet the region’s global market share fell to 12%, down from 22% in 2006. Industry turnover declined to €398bn in 2024 from €457bn in 2022, a drop of 13%.

By contrast, global plastics production grew 4.1% last year and 16.3% since 2018, underscoring the EU’s weakening position in the world plastics market.Asia now accounts for 57.2% of global plastics output, with China alone producing 34.5%—nearly triple the volume of the entire EU. The figures reinforce a widening competitiveness gap between Europe and faster-growing regions.

Costs, policy and trade reshape Europe’s plastics landscape

Plastics Europe, the industry association, attributes the decline to high energy prices, climate-related taxes and elevated feedstock costs that are pressuring margins and prompting asset sales and closures.“Europe’s plastics industry stands at a pivotal moment,” said Benny Mermans, President of Plastics Europe, calling for “urgent political support and frameworks to reinvigorate investment and secure resilient and competitive supply chains.”

Trade flows are also shifting. The EU-27 negative trade balance in plastic polymers improved from -0.8 Mt in 2023 to -0.2 Mt in 2024, supported by a 10% rise in exports.The United States remained the largest source of polymer imports into Europe with an 18.9% share, and the fourth-largest export destination for EU polymers at 7.7%. Industry groups warn that changing global tariff regimes could undermine the fragile improvement.

Circular economy momentum slows in Europe while Asia accelerates

The circular transition—a core plank of EU industrial and climate policy—showed little momentum in 2024.

Circular plastics accounted for 15.4% of EU production, a ratio shaped more by an 18.9% decline in fossil-based output since 2018 than by strong growth in recycling and bio-based materials.Total EU circular plastics production was flat at 8.4 Mt. Mechanical recycling rose 2.7% to 7.7 Mt, chemical recycling held at 0.11 Mt, and bio-based plastics fell 25% to 0.6 Mt amid competition for subsidised biofuels feedstocks.Global circular plastics production reached 43.9 Mt in 2024, crossing the 10% threshold of total output for the first time. China produced 13.4 Mt of circular plastics—nearly double Europe’s volume—highlighting the pace of investment and policy support in Asia’s circular economy.

Calls for an EU clean industrial deal to restore competitiveness

Plastics Europe is urging the EU and national governments to address the energy cost gap, tighten enforcement of EU rules at borders, and channel investment into circular plastics production.

The association backs stronger market-pull measures—such as ambitious recycled-content targets—to stimulate demand for recycled plastics, alongside a proposed Chemicals and Plastics Trade Observatory to monitor flows in real time and support timely trade defence where needed.“The European plastics industry is at a cliff edge as competitiveness collapses,” said Virginia Janssens, Managing Director of Plastics Europe.She argued that Europe must decide whether to “develop the world’s first circular plastics system or decarbonise through further deindustrialisation,” and called for rapid implementation of a Clean Industrial Deal to scale mechanical and chemical recycling and revive EU plastics manufacturing.