Falling Rents and High Homeownership Costs: Why Renting Still Appeals

Economic

Summary:

Despite falling rents across the U.S., many renters are opting to stay in their rental properties longer due to high homeownership costs. The continued strain of mortgage payments, high home prices...

The Decline in Rental Prices

After several years of skyrocketing rental prices, renters are finally seeing some relief as median rent prices for units with up to two bedrooms dropped by 1.7% year-over-year in October 2025. This decline follows a 3.6% drop from the 2022 peak, marking a small victory for renters who have been burdened by rising rents in recent years. However, while rental prices are falling, the costs associated with homeownership remain high, making the prospect of buying a home less attractive to many.

The continued affordability crisis in the housing market is driven by soaring home prices and mortgage rates above 6%. In addition, the hidden costs of homeownership, including taxes, insurance, and maintenance, add nearly $16,000 annually to the financial burden, or an extra $1,325 per month. These factors contribute to a situation where renting becomes a more viable option. According to CBRE, the premium to own a home is currently 108%, meaning the cost of owning a home including mortgage payments, taxes, and maintenance is more than double the cost of renting on average.

Renewal Rates and Renting Longer

Given the financial strain of homeownership, many renters are opting to stay in their current units longer. In fact, renewal rates are rising, with renters choosing to continue leasing rather than attempting to buy a home. The rise in renewal rates reflects the difficulty of transitioning from renting to owning in an environment of high home prices and mortgage rates. In cities like Denver, where rents have dropped nearly 6% over the past year, renters are benefiting from both lower prices and the incentive of rent concessions, such as several weeks of free rent.

While rents are declining in some areas, homeownership costs remain prohibitively high, especially in high-demand markets. CBRE’s calculations show that the current median premium to own a home is 108%, indicating that buying a home is still far more expensive than renting. Although this premium has decreased slightly from its 2023 peak, returning to pre-pandemic affordability levels will likely take several years. This would require a combination of lower mortgage rates, falling home prices, higher incomes, and increased rent levels.

Regional Variations and Negotiation Strategies

In some cities, such as Austin, Texas, the rental market has experienced dramatic changes due to a construction boom and shifting relocation patterns. In 2025, rents in Austin have dropped by 7.9%, and many tenants are successfully negotiating lower rent prices. Renters like Sarah Nazarie and Meagan McArthur have used market research and persistence to negotiate lower rents with their landlords. In a market where vacancies are rising and demand is softening, renters who are proactive in their negotiations can often secure better deals.

As homeownership costs remain high and rents show signs of falling, the decision to rent rather than buy continues to be a rational choice for many Americans. Despite falling rental prices, the financial gap between owning and renting remains substantial. As a result, many renters are opting to stay in their current homes, taking advantage of lower rents and attractive incentives. For first-time homebuyers, renting remains the more affordable and less risky option in a market that shows little sign of returning to pre-pandemic affordability.

Source: Yahoo Finance

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Blue River

Forex

Technical Analysis

In a market where volatility often reigns supreme, Morgan Stanley's latest EUR/CHF forecast presents a surprising narrative of stability. As cryptocurrency traders navigate turbulent waters, understanding traditional currency pairs like EUR/CHF provides crucial insights into global economic forces that ultimately impact digital asset markets. The investment bank's analysis reveals competing pressures creating an unusual equilibrium in this key forex pair.

Morgan Stanley Analysis Points to Tight EUR/CHF Trading Range

Morgan Stanley's research team has identified multiple factors converging to create what they describe as a 'compression zone' for the EUR/CHF pair. Their comprehensive Morgan Stanley analysis suggests the currency will trade within a remarkably narrow band of 0.94 to 0.97 in the coming months. This prediction comes despite significant macroeconomic uncertainties affecting both the Eurozone and Swiss economies.

Understanding the EUR/CHF Forecast Dynamics

The EUR/CHF forecast hinges on several critical factors that create opposing pressures:

Diverging monetary policies between ECB and SNB
Swiss Franc's traditional safe-haven status
Eurozone economic recovery prospects
Inflation differentials between regions

Swiss National Bank's Crucial Role in Currency Stability

The Swiss National Bank maintains an active presence in currency markets, frequently intervening to prevent excessive Swiss Franc appreciation. Their interventions create a de facto ceiling for the EUR/CHF pair, while market forces establish the floor. This delicate balance forms the foundation of Morgan Stanley's tight trading range prediction.

Factor	Impact on EUR/CHF	Strength
SNB Interventions	Prevents CHF appreciation	Strong
Eurozone Growth	Supports EUR strength	Moderate
Safe-Haven Flows	Boosts CHF during uncertainty	Variable
Interest Rate Differentials	Mixed impact	Weak

Eurozone Economy Faces Multiple Challenges

The Eurozone economy continues to grapple with energy price shocks, supply chain disruptions, and varying recovery speeds among member states. Germany's industrial output shows signs of stabilization, while Southern European nations face more persistent challenges. These economic crosscurrents contribute to the constrained EUR/CHF movement predicted in Morgan Stanley's analysis.

Currency Trading Range Strategies for Investors

For traders accustomed to cryptocurrency volatility, the projected tight currency trading range in EUR/CHF presents unique opportunities:

Range-bound trading strategies become more effective
Reduced margin requirements due to lower volatility
Focus on timing rather than direction
Hedging opportunities for euro-denominated assets

Actionable Insights from the EUR/CHF Forecast

Traders can leverage Morgan Stanley's analysis by implementing specific strategies. Consider accumulating EUR/CHF near the range's lower boundary and taking profits approaching the upper limit. Monitor SNB statements closely for any shift in intervention policy, as this could signal range expansion.

Source: CryptoSlate

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Gerik

Economic

Cryptocurrency

China's Bitcoin Mining Resurgence

Bitcoin mining in China has made a notable comeback, despite the government's official ban on the sector four years ago. After the Chinese government prohibited all cryptocurrency trading and mining in 2021, citing concerns over financial stability and energy consumption, the industry faced a severe decline. China’s global market share in bitcoin mining dropped to zero, but recent data shows a resurgence, with China now holding 14% of the global market share as of October 2025, according to the Hashrate Index, which tracks mining activity.

This recovery is fueled by cheap electricity in energy-rich regions like Xinjiang, where miners have returned to exploit abundant local resources. For example, one private miner from Xinjiang, who started mining in late 2024, stated that the province's surplus energy, which cannot be easily transmitted elsewhere, is being used in crypto mining. As a result, new mining projects are rapidly springing up in these areas.

Factors Driving the Resurgence

The resurgence of bitcoin mining coincides with a period of strong performance for the cryptocurrency, which saw record highs in October 2025. This was partly driven by U.S. President Donald Trump’s pro-crypto policies and growing global distrust of the U.S. dollar. Additionally, a rise in bitcoin prices has made mining more profitable, attracting miners back to China.

While the government has not officially relaxed its stance on bitcoin mining, some Chinese local governments facing financial difficulties have over-invested in data centers, further fueling the growth of mining activities. These regions, coupled with the increasing demand for mining rigs, have made the sector more viable once again.

Implications for Global Bitcoin Mining and Policy

Despite China’s official ban, miners in regions with cheap energy are finding ways to continue operations, with some estimates suggesting that 15-20% of the world’s bitcoin mining capacity is now operating in China. The resurgence is also evident in the financial performance of rig maker Canaan Inc., which reported a significant rebound in sales to China, with the country contributing more than 50% to its global revenues in 2025, up from just 2.8% the previous year.

This shift has raised questions about the Chinese government’s evolving stance on digital assets. While bitcoin mining remains officially banned, there are signs of policy shifts that could further support the industry. For instance, Hong Kong’s stablecoin bill and the consideration of yuan-backed stablecoins suggest that China is adapting its approach to cryptocurrencies, possibly due to the growing profitability of the sector and the challenges in completely suppressing it.

In conclusion, while bitcoin mining remains officially banned in China, the industry’s resurgence is undeniable. The combination of cheap energy, favorable market conditions, and regional policy flexibility has allowed miners to return in full force. This situation highlights the complex relationship between China’s government and digital currencies. While there may be ongoing official opposition, the increasing profitability of bitcoin mining and signs of policy relaxation suggest that the sector could continue to thrive, albeit under more covert circumstances. As such, the future of bitcoin mining in China remains a delicate balance between governmental control and market forces.

Source: Bloomberg

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Samantha Luan

Political

Economic

India's Supreme Court has agreed to drop criminal charges against billionaire brothers Nitin and Chetan Sandesara if they pay a third of their dues in a $1.6-billion bank fraud, a step that could prompt other offenders to seek similar settlements.

After being accused of defaulting on domestic bank loans, the brothers, whose companies spanned industries from pharmacueticals to energy, fled India in 2017 on Albanian passports, court filings showed. They denied wrongdoing.

The Supreme Court order, published on its website on Friday, is being reported for the first time. It quoted the brothers' lawyer, Mukul Rohatgi, as saying they were agreeable to paying a settlement of $570 million, and set a December 17 deadline.

Rohatgi told the court his client were ready to settle "to get rid of all proceedings", the order said, and asked for all proceedings to be quashed.

Rohatgi did not immediately respond to Reuters queries.

The brothers figure among 14 designated fugitive economic offenders under a 2018 law that allows the freezing of assets.

Others in the category are Kingfisher Airlines founder Vijay Mallya and diamond magnate Nirav Modi, who both deny accusations of bank fraud.

The Sandesaras own Nigeria's Sterling Oil Exploration and Energy Production, which contributes 2.5% of federal revenue, the company says on its website.

India's federal crime fighting agency accused the brothers, known for throwing lavish parties attended by Bollywood stars, of duping banks to the tune of $1.6 billion, though they denied the allegations.

The ruling could open the way for economic offenders to strike similar settlements, leaving lenders struggling to recover their entire dues, said Debopriyo Moulik, a Supreme Court lawyer in independent practice.

"This is very similar to the approach adopted in foreign countries where fines are an alternative to facing trial," Moulik said.

Source: Reuters

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Gerik

Economic

Commodity

Gold's Performance and Market Sentiment

Gold prices held steady after a slight weekly loss, trading above $4,060 per ounce. The precious metal experienced volatility throughout the week, with a slight recovery on Friday following comments from New York Fed President John Williams. Williams indicated that there might be room for a reduction in borrowing costs in the near future, providing temporary relief for gold. However, despite the rebound, gold still ended the session lower, reflecting the market's caution as traders weighed the possibility of another rate cut from the Federal Reserve.

The Federal Reserve’s cautious tone has left the market uncertain about the future direction of interest rates. While some Fed officials sounded hesitant about additional rate cuts, Williams' statement added some optimism. Traders have been closely monitoring Fed communications for clues on the central bank's next steps. However, due to a U.S. government shutdown that delayed crucial economic data, such as September retail sales and producer price data, traders are left without a clear picture. Upcoming economic reports, including jobless claims, are expected to provide more clarity on whether the Fed will proceed with a rate cut.

Futures traders are pricing in a 60% chance of a quarter-point rate cut next month, which could benefit gold as lower rates make bullion more attractive by reducing the opportunity cost of holding a non-interest-bearing asset. Gold has been in a consolidation phase since hitting a record high above $4,380 an ounce in October, supported by ongoing trade and geopolitical tensions, as well as concerns about government fiscal policies.

Outlook for Gold and Market Predictions

Analysts expect gold to remain within a narrow range for the time being, with significant movements depending on the Federal Reserve’s actions and the broader economic data. Ahmad Assiri, a strategist at Pepperstone Group, noted that the rate-cut path is difficult to predict, which could lead to a less volatile environment for gold in the near term. Despite this, gold's overall performance remains strong, up approximately 55% this year due to global uncertainties.

In conclusion, gold's steady price reflects the ongoing uncertainty in the market as traders anticipate the Federal Reserve's next move. While a potential rate cut could provide support for gold prices, the mixed signals from the Fed and delays in key economic data leave the market in a holding pattern. As global geopolitical and economic risks persist, gold remains an attractive hedge, but its near-term movement is likely to be shaped by the Fed's actions and upcoming economic reports.

Source: Bloomberg

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Blue River

Forex

Technical Analysis

The EURUSD pair ended the week under pressure as markets revised expectations for the Fed December decision. More Federal Reserve officials are expressing doubts about the need for further rate cuts.

Additional pressure on the US dollar came from the delayed jobs report: in September, the US economy added 119 thousand jobs, while unemployment rose to 4.4%, the highest since 2021. However, the USD remained strong. This review analyses the factors likely to impact the EURUSD rate in the upcoming week of November.

EURUSD forecast for this week: quick overview

Market focus: the EURUSD pair ended the week under pressure as the market continues to revise expectations for the Federal Reserve December decision. Committee members have become noticeably more cautious, and the delayed jobs report (119 thousand new jobs and a rise in unemployment to 4.4%) confirmed Jerome Powell's view that a rate cut is not guaranteed. The FOMC minutes revealed serious disagreements, adding more uncertainty for the pair.
Current trend: the pair is holding near 1.1535 with a downward structure. The EURUSD rate is consolidating within the 1.1470–1.1655 range, having failed to break above the key resistance level at 1.1655. Price remains in the lower half of Bollinger Bands, with dynamic resistance around 1.1600. MACD stays in negative territory, with no reversal signal yet.
Weekly outlook: the baseline scenario suggests sideways movement within the 1.1470–1.1655 range. A breakout below 1.1470 will intensify pressure and open the path to 1.1400. For the euro to recover, the pair must consolidate above 1.1600 and break through 1.1655 – only then will the short-term picture change.

EURUSD fundamental analysis

The EURUSD pair ended the week under pressure. The market continues to react to revised expectations for Fed policy, as more officials adopt a cautious stance.

Throughout the week, FOMC members expressed doubts about a December rate cut. Austan Goolsbee noted that the slowdown in inflation progress and the lack of data due to the shutdown make him uncertain about further easing. Beth Hammack warned that additional cuts could prolong high inflation and fuel risky market behaviour.

The publication of the delayed employment report intensified the fundamental backdrop: in September, the US economy added 119 thousand jobs, more than double the forecast. At the same time, unemployment rose to 4.4%, the highest since 2021. This mixed data supported Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell's point that a December rate cut is far from assured.

The FOMC minutes also confirmed deep divisions within the committee, with many favouring a pause, while some are ready to support another cut in December if the situation allows.

Looking ahead, the Fed's comments and updated macroeconomic data, which are expected following the shutdown backlog, will set the market tone.

With three weeks to go before the December meeting, the diverging views among FOMC members create an uncertainty zone for the EURUSD pair.

EURUSD technical analysis

On the daily chart, the EURUSD pair continues its downward trajectory. The instrument remains under pressure after several failed attempts to break above the 1.1655 zone, a key medium-term resistance level. Recent candlesticks are forming near 1.1535, reflecting weak buying momentum and a lack of confidence in a recovery.

Since early November, the pair has stabilised above the 1.1470 support level. This marks the lower boundary of the range, keeping sellers from pushing prices further down. The current phase appears to be consolidation between 1.1470 and 1.1655 following a decline, but the structure remains bearish. Prices are hovering in the lower half of Bollinger Bands, with the midline around 1.1600 acting as dynamic resistance.

MACD remains in negative territory and is gradually declining, signalling weakening buying pressure and continued bearish momentum. The Stochastic Oscillator is near oversold levels, indicating potential exhaustion, but sending no clear reversal yet. The market may stay near these lower levels for some time.

A breakout below the 1.1470 level would open the door to a deeper decline. For a recovery, the pair must consolidate above 1.1600 and return to 1.1655 – only then will the short-term structure change.

EURUSD trading scenarios

The EURUSD pair ended the week near 1.1535, under pressure after repeated failed attempts to break above the key resistance level at 1.1655. Fundamentally, the pair is trading amid growing uncertainty as more Fed officials are questioning the appropriateness of a December rate cut, and the delayed jobs report widened the divergence in economic outlooks.

The technical picture now appears negative. The EURUSD pair is hovering in the lower part of the 1.1470–1.1655 range, trading below dynamic resistance near 1.1600. MACD remains in negative territory, showing weak buying interest, while the Stochastic Oscillator is in oversold territory but lacks a reversal impulse. The market structure remains bearish despite the local consolidation.

Buy scenario

Long positions become relevant only after a firm consolidation above 1.1600, with confirmation of a bullish reversal coming from a breakout above 1.1655.

Targets: 1.1720–1.1745, then 1.1800

Stop-loss: below 1.1535

Sell scenario

Short positions are preferred after a breakout below the 1.1470 level, confirming a renewed bearish trend.

Targets: 1.1400–1.1380, and if pressure increases, movement towards 1.1300 may follow.

Stop-loss: above 1.1600

Conclusion:

The baseline scenario is consolidation between 1.1470–1.1600, with an increased risk of retesting the lower boundary of the range if the dollar strengthens. To confirm a bullish reversal, the EURUSD pair must consolidate above 1.1655, which remains the key resistance area capping buyers.

Summary

The EURUSD pair will likely remain within a neutral range during 24–28 November, reflecting market caution ahead of the Fed's December meeting. Uncertainty due to delayed macroeconomic reports and the absence of clear signals from the Fed and ECB prevents the pair from forming a sustainable bullish impulse.

The technical structure has turned gloomier: the EURUSD pair is consolidating within the 1.1470–1.1600 range without breaking key levels. Indicators show weakening downward momentum, but the lack of consolidation above 1.1600 limits the recovery potential to 1.1680–1.1730. If the dollar strengthens and Fed rhetoric becomes more hawkish, the pair could retest 1.1450–1.1470. The baseline scenario for the week suggests sideways movement with a slight bullish bias if US data comes in weak.

Source: RoboForex

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Gerik

Economic

U.S. Economic Growth vs. Weak Job Creation

The U.S. economy has been experiencing strong economic growth, fueled by resilient consumer spending and substantial investments in artificial intelligence (AI). Despite this, job creation has significantly slowed, with only around 62,000 jobs added per month in the three months leading up to September. This discrepancy between GDP expansion and weak job growth has created a complex scenario for the Federal Reserve, which has been tasked with ensuring price stability and a healthy labor market.

While businesses are heavily investing in AI and other technologies, these investments have not translated into an increased workforce. Instead, companies are cutting back on hiring in favor of reallocating resources towards technology. Despite record highs in the stock market, reflecting business optimism in AI, the labor market remains stagnant, causing concern among economists and policymakers.

The Role of Technology Investments and Policy Changes

A significant driver behind this paradox is the substantial investment in technology, particularly AI, which has grown within the economy. However, as companies focus on expanding their technological infrastructure, they are spending less on labor. This was evident in the second quarter of the year when business spending on information processing equipment and software contributed 4.4% to GDP. While this number is strong, it is still below the peak reached during the dot-com boom in 2000.

Additionally, policy changes—particularly those related to trade and immigration—have impacted both the supply and demand for labor. Since the beginning of the year, these changes have created uncertainty in the labor market, making businesses hesitant to hire. It remains uncertain whether rate cuts can counteract the negative impact of these policies and stimulate job growth.

The Risk of a Jobless Expansion

The situation of a “jobless expansion” presents serious risks for the economy. Economists warn that without job growth, the economy could face a downturn if any other negative factors come into play. A fragile labor market serves as a critical defense against recession, and if that defense weakens, it could jeopardize economic stability. As such, there are concerns about potential policy mistakes by the Federal Reserve if they continue cutting interest rates without a clear understanding of the labor market's trajectory.

Fed officials have expressed caution in their outlook, as the strong economic growth makes it difficult to justify further rate cuts unless inflation decreases faster than expected or the labor market weakens more rapidly. The dilemma of managing a strong economy while keeping job growth in check has put the U.S. economy in a precarious position, requiring careful monitoring and precise policy adjustments to prevent the risk of a recession.

In conclusion, the divergence between robust economic growth and weak job creation is a critical issue for U.S. policymakers. The Federal Reserve is facing a delicate balance in managing inflation while fostering a labor market that can support sustained economic growth. The paradox of a jobless expansion is not only challenging but also risky, as any economic misstep could destabilize the current growth trajectory and trigger a recession. How the Fed navigates this dilemma will be crucial in shaping the future of the U.S. economy.