EUR/USD Hits Three-Year High As US White House Policy Concerns Mount

Oil prices fell by more than 1.5 per cent on Monday on concerns that tariffs levied by the US on its partners could create economic headwinds and dent demand for oil in global markets.

Brent, the benchmark for two thirds of the world's oil, slid 1.63 per cent to $66.85 a barrel at 9.23am UAE time on Monday. West Texas Intermediate, the gauge that tracks US crude, was down 1.7 per cent to $63.58 per barrel.

US President Donald Trump announced sweeping tariffs on its trade partners, raising concerns that global economy could slowdown and impact oil markets.

The International Monetary Fund in January projected the global economy to expand by 3.3 per cent this year, with the US economy set to grow by 2.7 per cent.

The IMF, however, is expected to lower global economic growth when it releases its World Economic Outlook on Tuesday.

“Our new growth projections will include notable markdowns, but not recession,” IMF managing director Kristalina Georgieva, said last week.

“As market focus reverts to the economic impact of Trump’s tariffs, especially with the World Bank and IMF meetings in Washington this week, I expect the souring global growth outlook and sluggish oil demand sentiment will be back centrestage, weighing on crude,” Vandana Hari, chief executive of Singapore-based Vanda Insights told The National.

Investors are also keeping a close eye on developments related to the US and Iran talks.

Talks between Iran and the US on Tehran's nuclear programme are gaining momentum, with the “unlikely now possible” following progress this weekend in Rome, according to mediators.

The second round of negotiations led by Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi and US envoy to the Middle East Steve Witkoff ended on a positive note in the Italian city during the weekend. The Oman-brokered talks lasted for four hours and officials declared it a “good meeting” that yielded progress.

“These talks are gaining momentum and now even the unlikely is possible,” Omani Foreign Minister Badr Al Busaidi said on X.

Oman’s Foreign Ministry said the talks resulted in an agreement to move towards the next phase of negotiations aimed at sealing “a fair, enduring and binding deal”.

If a deal is struck between the two countries, it could ease some supply concerns if sanctions relief is provided for Iran.

Last week, the US imposed new sanctions on Iran to curb its exports, including against a “teapot” refinery – or small independent oil refiner – based in China.

“The fact that the two sides have now concluded two fruitful rounds of nuclear negotiations over the past fortnight is the bigger development on the Iran front, and at this point, mildly bearish,” Ms Hari said.

Oil prices settled more than 3 per cent higher on Thursday, posting the first weekly gain in three weeks on hopes of a potential trade deal between the US and the EU and new sanctions on Iran's oil exports.

Source: THENATIONALNEWS

Source: Euronews

SHANGHAI (April 21): China kept benchmark lending rates steady on Monday for the sixth successive month, matching market expectations.

Stronger-than-expected first-quarter economic growth data might have reduced the urgency for immediate monetary easing, even as markets wager more stimulus is likely in coming months to keep growth on an even keel, amid an intensifying Sino-US trade war.

Policymakers are also wary of a weakening Chinese yuan and shrinking interest margins at lenders, limiting the scope for easing.

The one-year loan prime rate (LPR) was kept at 3.1%, while the five-year LPR was unchanged at 3.6%.

In a Reuters poll of 31 market participants conducted last week, 27, or 87%, expected no change to either of the rates.

China's gross domestic product (GDP) grew 5.4% in the first quarter, beating expectations, but markets fear a sharp downturn in the year ahead, as US tariff policies pose the biggest risk to the Asian powerhouse in decades.

Export data was yet to capture the impact of higher US tariffs, as many factories front-loaded their orders to beat the duties, analysts said.

A string of global investment banks have lowered their projections for China's economic growth this year, and expected more monetary easing measures to underpin the economy.

Xing Zhaopeng, senior China strategist at ANZ, said the steady LPR fixings suggested that policymakers remain in a wait-and-see mode.

"The impact of tariffs is mainly on exports. Given the sound economic growth in the first quarter, it may be easier to introduce targeted measures for export companies," Xing said.

"The LPR is not seen moving without a cut to the seven-day reverse repo rate first," economists at ING said in a note.

"Low inflation and strong external headwinds amid escalating tariff threats provide a strong case for easing. But currency stabilisation considerations may prompt the People's Bank of China (PBOC) to wait until the US Federal Reserve cuts borrowing costs."

Source: Theedgemarkets

Source: AP

EURUSD forecast: key trading points

Fundamental analysis

EURUSD continues to climb rapidly, driven by weakness in the US dollar. The greenback came under pressure after reports surfaced that the White House is exploring legal grounds to remove Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell. President Donald Trump has reportedly voiced frustration over the Fed’s reluctance to cut interest rates.

This development has intensified market concerns about political interference in central bank independence, compounding existing unease over trade tensions and uncertainty surrounding Trump’s broader economic agenda.

Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee also warned over the weekend that new tariffs could drag on US economic growth, further fuelling demand for the euro and safe alternatives to the dollar.

EURUSD technical analysis

On the H4 chart, EURUSD is firmly within a rising price channel. The Alligator indicator confirms the uptrend, and the breakout above 1.1500 signals continued bullish strength.

As long as bulls hold the price above 1.1500, a move toward 1.1600 is likely in the near term. However, if bears manage to push the pair back below 1.1500, a short-term correction toward 1.1400 could develop.

Source：Technical Analysis

Bitcoin (BTC) experienced a rapid surge on the first day of the week, driven by growing optimism surrounding the United States’ global trade agreements. According to CoinMarketCap data, Bitcoin traded at around $84,000 early in the day, quickly rising to surpass $87,000 and achieving a 2.1% gain throughout the day. This movement sparked a sense of optimism in the broader cryptocurrency market, positively impacting the prices of several leading altcoins.

Bitcoin Aims for $90,000

Last week proved to be quite tumultuous for Bitcoin. Weekly data from CoinMarketCap revealed that the largest cryptocurrency struggled to surpass the $86,000 mark, with its price dipping to as low as $83,200 at one point. However, particularly favorable developments over the weekend helped to elevate Bitcoin’s price.

Bitcoin Price

With this surge, the impacts of the sharp decline experienced earlier in the month began to diminish. Bitcoin had previously fallen to $75,000 due to President Donald Trump‘s imposition of additional tariffs of at least 104% on Chinese goods. Recent statements by Trump have heightened expectations that the trade war could ease, improving investor sentiment.

Trump indicated that the White House has resumed tariff negotiations with China, providing hope to the markets. Experts believe that a reduction in trade war concerns could pave the way for a new wave of growth in the cryptocurrency market. This situation is considered critical for Bitcoin, with potential price movements closely tied to the results of these negotiations.

One of the main reasons for Bitcoin’s sudden rise is attributed to the new Bitcoin purchase made by the publicly-traded Japanese company Metaplanet. The company’s CEO, Simon Gerovich, announced today that they have acquired more BTC. Additionally, cryptocurrency research firm 10x Research suggested that Bitcoin might be poised for significant growth shortly. According to the firm, the downward compression pattern forming in BTC price could set the stage for a sharp upward breakout.

Altcoins Follow Bitcoin’s Lead

Bitcoin’s rise also positively influenced other major altcoins such as Ethereum (ETH) , XRP, and BNB. Ethereum saw a 1.4% increase throughout the day, while XRP gained 1.5%. Popular meme coin Dogecoin (DOGE) and BNB both rose approximately 1.4%, and Cardano (ADA) saw an increase of around 1%. However, Solana (SOL) did not manage to capture the small rally seen by other altcoins.

Source: CryptoSlate