Euro´s Persistent Rise Undercut by Dollar Bounce on Data, Bill

Forex

Central Bank

Summary:

The greenback’s recovery pressured the common currency, leading it to trade slightly weaker on the day after it touched the highest level since September 2011 earlier in the session.

The euro’s relentless rally stalled on Tuesday as US data failed to support an imminent interest-rate cut by the Federal Reserve, prompting traders to buy the dollar.

The greenback’s recovery pressured the common currency, leading it to trade slightly weaker on the day after it touched the highest level since September 2011 earlier in the session. If it were to close higher on Tuesday, it would have been the longest streak since 2004 and eclipsed only twice since the currency’s inception in 1999.

The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index advanced to a session high after Donald Trump’s $3.3 trillion tax and spending cut bill passed the Senate. It was also gaining after the first of this week’s three reports on US labor market conditions failed to provide justification for a Fed cut as soon as next month.

“I think the knee-jerk reaction was to buy the dollar on lower fiscal policy uncertainty,” said Win Thin, global head of markets strategy at Brown Brothers Harriman & Co. “To me, pushing through a massive tax cut will eventually widen the budget deficit, which is ultimately dollar-negative.”

The common currency declined 0.1% to $1.1777 on Tuesday, after eight days of advances pushed options traders to ramp up bullish positioning. So-called risk reversals — a closely watched measure of market sentiment — posted the third-strongest bullish repricing of the year last week. Data from the Depository Trust & Clearing Corporation show that nearly two out of three options in the past week targeted a stronger euro. Euro´s Persistent Rise Undercut by Dollar Bounce on Data, Bill_1

Euro´s Persistent Rise Undercut by Dollar Bounce on Data, Bill_1

The euro’s rally has been underpinned by a long-running slide for the dollar, with fresh momentum from weaker US data and growing conviction that the Fed is preparing to ease policy more aggressively than the European Central Bank. According to Danske Bank AS strategists led by Jens Naervig Pedersen, the dollar’s structural decline has resumed as geopolitical risks fade and focus returns to the US economy and political backdrop.

“We see many reasons to be short USD right now, including the possibility of a new Fed Chair being appointed earlier than expected, the Big Beautiful Bill on 4 July, and the tariff deadline on 9 July,” he said.

The euro has risen nearly 14% against the greenback this year so far, while a dollar index has fallen more than 9%.

Analysts increasingly see the euro rallying toward $1.20 in the coming months. Strategists at Societe Generale SA, including Kit Juckes, expect the common currency to peak at around $1.25 over the medium term, even if it lags the yen and some Asian peers in the second half of the year.

European Central Bank Vice President Luis de Guindos said Tuesday that while a move to $1.20 is “acceptable,” further gains would make policy makers’ task more complicated.

What Bloomberg Strategists Say

“While a mild strengthening of the currency doesn’t pose a particular concern for the ECB, gains that are too rapid tend to tighten financial conditions and may threaten to crimp economic growth.” — Ven Ram, Macro Strategist, Dubai. Click here for the full piece.

For Nicholas Wall, head of Global FX Strategy at J.P. Morgan Asset Management, the ECB is doing the right thing by embracing a euro that’s attracting more demand as a reserve currency. “A stronger euro is good for Europe partly in the context of rising oil prices,” he said.

The latest euro-area inflation data offered little reason for the ECB to alter its stance. Consumer prices rose in France and Spain but held steady in Italy and unexpectedly eased in Germany, reinforcing the central bank’s view that inflation will converge sustainably toward its 2% target.

Source: Bloomberg

Risk Warnings and Disclaimers

You understand and acknowledge that there is a high degree of risk involved in trading. Following any strategies or investment methods may lead to potential losses. The content on the site is provided by our contributors and analysts for information purposes only. You are solely responsible for determining whether any trading assets, securities, strategy, or any other product is suitable for investing based on your own investment objectives and financial situation.

Add to Favorites

Adam

Cryptocurrency

Although the cryptocurrency market has seen a slight decline in recent days, Bitcoin continues to dominate. This has resulted in altcoins recording their weakest performance against BTC in years.

The total market capitalization excluding Bitcoin recovered by nearly 10% last week. Sitting at a critical support level of $1 trillion, the new week has started calmly for altcoins. If this support zone holds across the altcoin market, it could indicate that the capital flowing into crypto—currently dominated by Bitcoin—may begin to shift towards altcoins. In particular, expectations around ETFs, the possibility of early Fed rate cuts, and the launch of new altcoin-based products could support this transition.

Several developments within the internal dynamics of the crypto market may also gradually shift investor sentiment in favor of altcoins. The ongoing ETF progress for Ethereum, the launch of a staking-integrated ETF for Solana, and rising institutional interest in Bitcoin Cash are just some examples of this growing momentum toward altcoins.

While ETF Uncertainty Persists in Ethereum, Medium-to-Long-Term Potential Remains

Ethereum, which leads the altcoin market, continues to face pressure—most recently from the SEC’s decision to delay the Ethereum staking ETF proposed by Bitwise.

The SEC’s approval of the spot Ethereum ETF last year was a major milestone. Now, the potential inclusion of staking could mark another turning point for ETH. The possible returns from introducing staking into ETFs, along with broader spot ETF approvals, remain powerful catalysts for Ethereum over the medium to long term.

At the same time, increased activity on the Ethereum network and recent upgrades are contributing to its stability. The expansion of institutional Ethereum products in the second half of the year could also bring ETH back into focus. In the short term, however, ETH remains under technical pressure.

3 Altcoins That Stand to Gain If Capital Rotates Away From Bitcoin_1

Ethereum recently rebounded alongside the broader market following a ceasefire between Israel and Iran. As a result, ETH recovered the support level we’ve been monitoring at $2,430, driven by renewed buying interest.

Currently, ETH is trading sideways above the $2,430 support, but ongoing pressure is making it difficult to break into the $2,500 region. If ETH manages to secure daily closes above $2,500, this could open the door for a move towards $2,700. The resistance at $2,730 has remained unbroken since May. A high-volume breakout above this level could trigger a rally towards the $3,000–3,400 range.

However, if ETH—already under pressure—falls below the $2,430 support without any shock developments, we could see an increase in selling pressure. If that happens, and ETH dips below the 3-month EMA at $2,380, the likelihood of a move towards $2,000 increases significantly.

ETF Movement in Solana Creates Excitement

Solana’s REX-Osprey SOL+Staking ETF is the first spot ETF to integrate staking rewards. Launching on July 2, 2025, this product offers investors exposure to both SOL price action and passive staking income. This first-of-its-kind ETF has been met with short-term positive sentiment.

However, this ETF development coincides with a weakening of Solana’s network fundamentals. Stablecoin value on the network has declined since the start of the year, and revenues have also fallen. This suggests waning interest in Solana, which is also making it technically difficult for SOL to break out of its short-term downtrend. At this stage, sustained interest in the ETF could boost demand for SOL again. For stronger price action, we’ll need to see a recovery in network usage and an increase in institutional fund flows.

3 Altcoins That Stand to Gain If Capital Rotates Away From Bitcoin_2

Recent buying activity in Solana helped break the short-term downtrend. However, following the ETF news, the typical “sell the news” reaction in crypto kicked in, and the SOL price now appears to be retesting the trendline.

Accordingly, $148 is a key support level for SOL. If buyers can defend this level, it would confirm the continuation of the uptrend. In this case, we could see Solana advancing toward price targets of $165, $183, and $202, respectively.

Conversely, if daily closes fall below the $148 support, a pullback toward the $130 level becomes likely.

Bitcoin Cash Maintains Strong Outlook With the Support of Institutional Buying

Bitcoin Cash has recently emerged as one of the market’s standout assets. BCH, currently trading at $523, is revisiting levels not seen since December 2024.

After beginning its uptrend in April, BCH was only marginally affected by the May correction and managed to maintain its positive momentum through June. The recent divergence in BCH—both technically and in terms of investor interest—positions it as a notable option for short-term speculative trading. That said, the sustainability of this uptrend will depend on broader market conditions and macroeconomic developments.

3 Altcoins That Stand to Gain If Capital Rotates Away From Bitcoin_3

Technically, the Stochastic RSI on the daily chart indicates that BCH may continue its upward move. Based on the last bearish wave (from December 2024 to April 2025), the nearest resistance lies at $544 (Fib 0.786). If BCH can close above this level on a weekly basis, it could continue its momentum toward the $620 resistance, followed by a medium-term target range of $720–840.

If BCH fails to break above $544, profit-taking may accelerate. In that case, a retreat to the $485 support (Fib 0.618) would be the likely first stop.

Source: investing

Risk Warnings and Disclaimers

Add to Favorites

Adam

Economic

Senate leaders advanced President Trump's "One Big Beautiful Bill" on Tuesday in a vote that moved the megabill one step closer to becoming law despite three Republican defections, leading to a 50-50 tally that required Vice President JD Vance to break the tie in Trump's favor.

The process proved exceptionally contentious in recent days, largely over healthcare provisions and trims to the Medicaid program that are set to extract hundreds of billions in government savings but cause millions to lose coverage.

This portion of the bill fueled two of the Republican no votes — Thom Tillis of North Carolina and Susan Collins of Maine — and led to last-minute concessions to Lisa Murkowski of Alaska as a way of securing her yes vote.

The third Republican no vote was Rand Paul of Kentucky, who objected to the inclusion of a $5 trillion debt ceiling increase in the package.

Medicaid and that debt ceiling increase were just two pieces of a complex, nearly 900-page bill that is set to reshape whole swathes of the US economy, especially in the areas of tax rates, energy, and healthcare.

Clean energy companies — especially electric-vehicle maker Tesla (TSLA) — were perhaps paying the closest attention in recent days.

Tesla CEO Elon Musk emerged during final negotiations as the top business-world critic of the bill, attacking the price and how it treats clean energy. He said earlier Tuesday that the $3.3 increase in debt expected from the bill makes a "mockery" of his work at the Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE).

Musk and others are also set to see impacts on their bottom line, with government support in the form of tax credits set to go away. But a last-minute change appeared to remove what could have been a new headwind in the form of an excise tax, which had raised particular ire.

Economists have likewise noted that the final price tag, which could top $4 trillion, and critiqued an accounting gimmick Republicans employed to hide much of that red ink.

Silicon Valley has growing questions after a last-minute change stripped a closely watched artificial intelligence provision from the bill.

But a range of GOP priorities that are included — from increased funding for border enforcement to the military to money for America's 250th anniversary celebration next year — pushed the bill over the line, with many in corporate America in favor and focused on the tax-cuts piece.

The Business Roundtable, which represents CEOs in Washington, D.C., urged passage in recent days and called it "critical legislation [to] protect and enhance the transformative economic benefits that President Trump's historic 2017 tax reform delivered for American businesses, workers and families."

President Trump on Tuesday morning expressed confidence it would reach his desk soon, calling it the "greatest bill ever passed," focusing on the border provisions and dismissing concerns that Americans would love their healthcare coverage.

The legislation now moves back to the US House of Representatives, which, after passing a previous version in May, is set to move quickly ahead, perhaps within hours, but with passage far from assured as criticisms from fiscal conservatives pile up in recent days (and Musk focused on flipping votes there).

For now, here is a closer look at three ways the current version of the bill, as blessed by the Senate, would impact the business world.

Changes for both the individual and corporate tax structure

A centerpiece of the bill — and far and away the most expensive provisions — surrounds taxes.

The bill's main impetus has long been to permanently extend tax cuts for individuals contained in the 2017 Tax Cuts and Jobs Act, which Trump signed into law on a temporary basis during his first term as president.

The bill would represent a continuation of the status quo for taxpayers. As one example, if the bill is enacted, America's highest earners will see a continued top rate of 37%.

The bill also provides new tax credits for individuals by fulfilling signature Trump campaign promises — albeit slightly less fulsomely than in the House version — to eliminate taxes on tips, overtime, and car loan interest. It also offers an expanded standard deduction for seniors after Trump promised to eliminate taxes on Social Security benefits.

Employees would be able to deduct up to $25,000 annually for tips and overtime in the Senate version, in contrast to the House's approach of 100% deductibility under certain income limits.

Business owners, meanwhile, are keenly focused on a series of tax deductions that will reinstate credits for corporations for things like property depreciation, capital investments, new factory construction, interest expenses, and research and development costs.

Many of these provisions were present in the House version, but only temporarily. Permanency was a key Senate priority and is now included in the bill, even as it increased the price tag.

The bill also makes permanent the pass-through deduction at a rate of 20%. That deduction — formally known as the 199A deduction — is focused on often smaller businesses organized as S corporations or partnerships.

The Senate version also includes an array of other tax changes, including a $40,000 annual deduction for state and local taxes (SALT) for some taxpayers in the coming years, enhanced credits for "opportunity zones," and so-called MAGA accounts.

A focus on energy and healthcare

The effect on the energy sector could be profound, especially after a last-minute series of changes turned the bill even further against the clean energy industry while offering new support for fossil fuels.

The bill has long been expected to phase out Biden-era clean energy tax credits, but the final Senate bill now aims to shut them down faster than expected.

A late addition to the bill also raised particular pique in the form of a new tax on wind and solar projects completed after 2027 if a certain amount of supplies came from China. But those objections appear to have led to a moderation, with CNN first noticing Tuesday morning that a final draft quietly removed that excise tax.

It gave clean energy advocates some solace, with Democratic Sen. Ed Markey of Massachusetts posting only that "We just forced them to take it out."

At the same time, new last-minute inducements were unveiled for fossil fuels, including one classifying coal as a critical mineral for a government manufacturing credit.

"We're doing coal," Trump said in an interview released over the weekend on Fox News' "Sunday Morning Futures," where he also called solar energy projects "ugly as hell."

It was a mix that led Musk and others to predict that it would cut off clean energy, hurt the overall energy grid, and perhaps lead to higher utility bills. A statement from the American Clean Power Association said the effect would be to "undermine growth in domestic manufacturing and land hardest on rural communities who would have been the greatest beneficiaries of clean energy investment."

The bill is also set to implement major changes to the healthcare system, which Democrats say will hurt the social safety net and the healthcare sector.

Healthcare negotiations went until nearly the literal last minute, but the overall package is set to trim the government's Medicaid spending by around $900 billion in the years ahead.

Corners of the sector, like rural hospitals, are set to be most directly impacted. A $25 billion fund was included to cushion the blow for these providers from 2028 to 2032.

But the bottom line for patients — according to an accounting from the Congressional Budget Office that came in over the weekend — is that 11.8 million additional residents would become uninsured by 2034 because of the healthcare provisions.

Some would be illegal immigrants, as Republicans often point out, but millions are expected to be US citizens put off by a raft of additional requirements to qualify for coverage.

Capitol Hill has yet to offer its final verdict on the package, with House deliberations still in the offing, but the healthcare provisions in particular appear to have led Americans to grow increasingly skeptical.

A series of polls has shown a decline in support for the bill as the focus has turned to healthcare. Even a recent Fox News national poll found a 21-point gap between those who say they are opposed (59%) and those who say they are in favor (38%).

source :finance.yahoo

To stay updated on all economic events of today, please check out our Economic calendar

Risk Warnings and Disclaimers

Add to Favorites

Adam

Economic

GOP senators signaled they're close to bringing President Donald Trump's One Big Beautiful Bill Act to a vote in the Senate today, with sights set on it clearing the House as soon as Wednesday. President Trump has demanded that Congress deliver the federal budget and tax bill to his desk for a signature by July Fourth. But there's still a chance that a rewrite could be necessary.

Some House GOP moderates dislike the sharper Medicaid spending curbs imposed by the Senate, while fiscal conservatives disapprove of the 940-page bill's bottom line. The Senate also took a tougher line on renewable energy tax credits, which prompted Tesla (TSLA) CEO Elon Musk to weigh in against the bill.

Big Beautiful Bill's Budget Math

Yet, apart from Tesla sliding as the Trump-Musk fight reignites, markets continue sailing along. Hospital stocks shrugged off deeper Medicaid cuts, as investors may believe moderates will limit the damage. Even renewable stocks bounced on news that Sen. Lisa Murkowski, R-AK, , a key undecided vote, had an amendment to preserve production tax credits.

But if relief is in store for Medicaid spending cuts and Inflation Reduction Act tax credits, fiscal conservatives could bolt. And if they don't, that suggests bigger federal deficits, putting upward pressure on borrowing costs. Yet, the 10-year Treasury yield, trading in a tight range, is holding at 4.27%, suggesting little concern among bond investors.

A bit more clarity could come soon. Politico is reporting that Senate leaders will offer a broad amendment to seal up the remaining vote or two they need to assure passage. The amendment may tweak both Medicaid cuts and renewable tax credits.

Medicaid Cuts

The reality of the Big Beautiful Bill's tough trade-offs burst into the open on Sunday night, as Sen. Thom Tillis (R-N.C.) denounced Medicaid provisions that he said would cost his state $26 billion in support and kick 663,000 North Carolinians off their health plans. The speech also effectively ended his national political career, with Tillis opting to call off his 2026 reelection campaign, rather than do battle against both Trump and the Democrats.

Hospital operators including Tenet Healthcare (THC) slipped early Monday but then rallied, despite the revised Senate bill targeting $930 billion in cuts to Medicaid spending and about $230 billion in cuts to spending on tax credits to buy insurance on the Affordable Care Act health insurance exchanges.

By comparison, the House sought $793 billion in Medicaid cuts. And the Senate may not be done yet, with a vote still expected on an amendment that would gradually shift the 90%-10%, federal-state split of ACA Medicaid expansion costs closer to 50%-50%.

The Congressional Budget Office found that the House version of the OBBBA would increase the ranks of the uninsured by 10.9 million. That rises to 16 million due to the GOP's apparent decision to let enhanced premium tax credits for the ACA exchanges expire at the end of the year. The CBO hasn't yet evaluated the impact of the latest Senate version.

On June 24, 16 House Republicans wrote to Senate Majority Leader John Thune, taking issue with the Senate version of the bill that fails to "give hospitals time to adjust to new budgetary constraints."

Federal Budget Reverses Inflation Reduction Act

The Senate GOP's OBBBA changes to Inflation Reduction Act clean-energy tax credits also one-upped the House version. Both would reel in more than $400 billion in savings, however the Senate version goes a step further. Politico and other outlets reported on an analysis by Rhodium Group that indicates new wind and solar projects would face a tax starting in 2028, raising their cost by 10% to 20%, if they source components from China.

Musk said the Senate bill will "destroy millions of jobs," in a Sunday post. "While it subsidizes outdated industries, it deals a severe blow to future industries." On Monday, Musk went further, threatening to create a third party to target lawmakers who back the Big Beautiful Bill.

The bill, as expected, ends the $7,500 electric vehicle tax credit.

OBBBA Budget Math

The Senate cut a few hundred billion less than the House in food aid and student loans. That at least partly explains why the bill doesn't come close to clearing the fiscal bar set by the House, which required that tax cuts exceed spending cuts by no more than $2.5 trillion over 10 years.

Based on the current law baseline, which assumes expiration of most 2017 tax cuts at the end of this year, CBO said the Senate version has $4.47 trillion in tax cuts and $1.21 trillion in spending cuts, raising deficits by $3.26 trillion. Based on current policy, CBO says the Senate bill cuts spending by $1.34 trillion and lowers taxes by $829 billion, lowering the deficit by $508 billion.

S&P 500

The S&P 500 dipped 0.1% in early Tuesday stock market action. On Monday, the S&P 500 rose 0.5% to a record high, leaving the benchmark index up 5.5% for the year and 7.3% since Election Day.

Be sure to read IBD's The Big Picture column after each trading day to get the latest on the prevailing stock market trend and what it means for your trading decisions.

Source: investors

To stay updated on all economic events of today, please check out our Economic calendar

Risk Warnings and Disclaimers

Add to Favorites

Manuel

Central Bank

Forex

Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell said Tuesday the U.S. central bank has no plans to change how it offers dollar liquidity to other official entities.

Speaking on the matter of the Fed's dollar swap lines system, Powell told a gathering held by the European Central Bank that "we still have the same authorities, and we're still prepared to use them in situations where it's within our legal authorities and where we think it makes sense."

He added the dollar swap lines have made "a big contribution" to global financial stability.

Fed dollar swap lines offer collateralized loans to eligible central banks to ensure dollar liquidity is not an issue for the global financial system.

The current system, initiated during the global financial crisis, has been heavily used in times of crisis.

Fed swap lines now in place can lend dollar and foreign currencies, although it is the dollar-related facility that has been where the action has been. The swap line usage level can often be viewed as a proxy for international financial stress.

There has been some concern that the Fed's currency swap lines could be shuttered amid the Trump administration's retreat from multilateral international coordination and its broader skepticism over Fed actions, although so far, no action by elected officials has happened.

The system may also face longer run challenges as the trade policy pursued by the president may threaten the status of the dollar as a global reserve currency, which could make American money less needed by other nations, in turn reducing the need to borrow dollars in times of stress.

Speaking at the same central bank event, Bank of Korea Governor Rhee Chang-yong noted that while the dollar swap lines had helped in times of trouble there were times when there could be local dollar liquidity issues the U.S. central bank could not address.

"Our understanding is that Fed cannot extend the swap lines in that case, and we have to self defense ourselves. That is why I think they're having an adequate, sufficient level of reserves is very important."

Source: Reuters

Risk Warnings and Disclaimers

Add to Favorites

Adam

Stocks

The US Dollar Index is down 10% in the first half of 2025. That’s the weakest year-to-date performance since 1972, when the United States moved away from the gold standard.

Several interrelated factors are dragging the dollar down. A major one is a chaotic trade and tariff policy that is still a work in progress. At the same time, there are growing concerns about the country’s public debt—concerns that will only get stronger if Congress passes the Trump administration’s “big, beautiful bill,” which will, at least on paper, increase the national debt by trillions of dollars over the next decade.

Commodity prices are also on the rise, and rising commodity prices tend to strengthen the currencies of major exporters like Canada and Australia. This in turn puts additional pressure on the US dollar. Plus, Europe and Asia are rebounding quickly from last year’s slowdown, causing a flight to safety to flow to foreign equities and bonds.

Despite all the negativity surrounding the US dollar, the S&P 500 hit an all-time high at the end of June. Many market analysts believe that many issues serving as headwinds today (tariffs, inflation, uncertainty on tax policy) will turn into tailwinds for gross domestic product (GDP) in the second half of the year.

Keeping all this in mind, here are three stocks that are likely to perform well while the dollar is weak and are also poised for a recovery right here in the United States.

Caterpillar: Global Demand and Onshoring Drive Growth

Caterpillar (NYSE:CAT) stands out as a prime beneficiary of a weaker US dollar. With more than half of its revenue generated from international markets, the company gains when foreign earnings convert into stronger dollar terms. The company also benefits directly from rising commodity prices because its heavy machinery is heavily used in mining operations.

But there are also domestic catalysts at play with Caterpillar. Many companies have responded to the Trump administration’s calls to onshore their manufacturing, translating into increased demand for industrial equipment. These commitments, along with capital already committed to build data centers, will be bullish for Caterpillar.

That said, CAT stock is up over 11% in the last month and is now trading above the consensus price target of the analysts tracked by MarketBeat. The stock also has a forward price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of over 19x, which makes it expensive compared to its historical levels as well as other industrial stocks.

While investors may want to wait for a little pullback, they may not want to wait too long. On June 24, Citigroup raised its price target for CAT stock from $370 to $420.

Procter & Gamble: A Weak Dollar Lifts International Sales

The Procter & Gamble Company (NYSE:PG) is similar to Caterpillar in that about 50% of the company’s revenue comes from overseas. That explains why its earnings per share (EPS) remain slightly higher year-over-year (YOY) even as its revenue is under pressure.

Consumer staples stocks in the United States have struggled lately. That’s because the pricing power that many companies enjoyed in 2020 and 2021 has turned into a liability as higher-for-longer interest rates and sticky inflation has caused consumers to be more discerning about how they spend their dollars.

PG stock is down about 5.4% through the first half of 2025. However, even at a forward P/E ratio of around 24x, the stock is still trading at a discount to itself. Analysts project EPS growth of around 6% over the next year, and even that forecast may underestimate potential gains if US economic conditions improve in the second half of the year.

IBM: AI and Quantum Bets Pay Off Abroad

At the midpoint of 2025, International Business Machines (NYSE:IBM) may be ready to win the title of comeback stock of the year—or maybe of the decade. IBM stock is up 33% in 2025, and Wedbush recently raised its price target from $300 to $325. That would be a gain of over 10% for investors.

The company’s resurgence is largely driven by its ability to make artificial intelligence (AI) practical for large enterprises, particularly agentic AI. Like the other stocks on this list, IBM also generates significant revenue from international customers.

Another key driver is IBM’s long-standing investment in the quantum computing space. This has been a targeted bet for IBM over several years that is paying off as quantum computing becomes a reality.

The outperformance of IBM stock in 2025 makes it expensive based on many metrics. For example, its earnings yield of 2.07% is lower than its dividend yield, which suggests that IBM is paying out more in dividends than it earns in profit relative to its stock price. But IBM’s dividend is backed by the company’s free cash flow (FCF) ratio, which is higher than its historical averages.

Source: investing

Risk Warnings and Disclaimers

Add to Favorites

Owen Li

Central Bank

There is no prospect of a major challenge to the dollar's status as the world's reserve currency of choice any time soon, central bankers gathered for an annual conference in the Portuguese resort of Sintra said on Tuesday.

U.S. President Donald Trump's unpredictable economic, trade and security policies have spurred questions over whether the U.S. currency, which accounts for 58% of the world's reserves, can remain at the centre of the global monetary system.

European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde, who has argued the euro could over time become an alternative to the dollar if Europe's currency zone enacted necessary reforms, said 2025 could in future be viewed as "pivotal" in this respect.

"(But) for a major change to occur it will take a lot of time and a lot of effort," she told a panel with her U.S., British, Japanese and Korean counterparts.

She noted that "investors are looking at options" in a climate characterised by uncertainty and unpredictability and that there was evidence that the euro was benefiting from that.

"It's not going to happen just like that overnight. It never did historically," she said. "But there is clearly something that has been broken. Whether it is fixable, or whether it is going to continue to be broken - I think the jury's out."

Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda also noted that any significant change would depend on structural reforms.

"It's to a certain extent up to what areas like Europe or China will do in terms of improving the efficiency or convenience of their currencies," he said, citing as an example the efforts at capital market integration in the euro zone.

Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey said any change to the dollar's status was a long way off.

"I don't see ... a sort of a major shift at the moment," he said, arguing that any reserve currency had to offer a supply of safe assets into the market that can be used for purposes of collateral and security.

Bank of Korea Governor Rhee Chang-yong said the prospect of a long-term shift of the dollar sentiment was a subject of discussion for some even as they retained their dollar holdings.

"It looks like people are talking about it. But at this moment they keep the dollar share while increasing their hedging ratio," he told the panel.

Lagarde told a recent audience in Berlin that there was an opening for a "global euro moment", if it earned it.