European Midday Briefing: Shares Up, Precious Metals Rally as New Year Begins

Economic

Summary:

European stocks hit record highs at the start of 2026 as metals rallied, liquidity stayed thin, rate-cut expectations grew, and geopolitical tensions supported safe-haven assets amid mixed global headlines.

MARKET WRAPS

European shares were up on the first day of trading of 2026 with little in the way of economic data due today.

London's premier FTSE 100 index opened the new year at a record high, passing the 10,000 mark for the first time , with the European-wide Stoxx 600 also hitting a new record.

Global market liquidity is expected to be thin before a likely pick up next week, Danske Bank said. "Looking ahead, market liquidity should improve next week alongside a fuller data slate ."

Next week's data include key U.S labour market releases such as the December jobs report on Jan. 9 and the ISM surveys. The data could give further cues on the Federal Reserve's next policy move.

The Fed is expected to cut rates four more times in 2026 to move to a neutral rate , Navellier & Associates said. Weak home prices are raising deflation concerns that the central bank needs to address.

"Additionally, there is no reason for the Fed to remain restrictive when the U.S. economy is not creating many jobs," it added.

Barclays maintains its expectation for the Fed to lower interest rates twice in 2026, by 25 bps each in March and June. The bank views the risks around this baseline as skewed toward delayed rate cuts .

Gold and silver prices were on the rise, starting 2026 on an upbeat note. Gold notched its largest one-year net gain on record last year, as Comex gold contracts climbed 64.5%. Silver also hit a record high in 2025 and surged nearly 148% in 2025.

U.S. Markets:

Stock futures were up on Friday, kicking off the new year with gains following a strong 2025.

The S&P 500 gained 16% last year, marking its third consecutive year of double-digit gains.

Forex:

The dollar traded steady against a basket of currencies and against the euro in quiet trade after the New Year holiday.

Bonds:

Eurozone government bond yields rose , tracking Treasurys.

In 2025, global bonds had their strongest year since 2020 , although there were significant divergences in performance, Deutsche Bank said.

Energy:

Oil was steady as prices hold around three-month averages. Prices are likely to move in a $55/bbl-$65/bbl range in 1Q 2026, Phillip Nova said. "The dominant theme across markets remains the supply-demand imbalance ."

Metals:

Gold rose as geopolitical tensions continued into the new year. Tensions between Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates have risen as the states' proxies clash in Yemen, with geopolitical risk supporting the safe-haven asset .

Silver

Silver clawed back losses caused by the CME Group's increased margin requirements at the end of 2025. Heightened geopolitical tensions also supported silver levels.

The precious metal could benefit more than gold in a potentially declining interest rate environment said XS. Silver's high liquidity, ease of trading and relatively lower cost compared with gold makes it an attractive option as a safe-haven asset for both retail and institutional investors .

EMEA HEADLINES

Orsted's Revolution Wind to File Injunction Against U.S. Construction Halt

Orsted said its U.S. joint venture would seek an injunction against the Trump administration's lease suspension order, which halted the construction of all U.S. offshore wind projects.

Revolution Wind, a 50-50 venture between the Danish renewable company and Global Infrastructure Partners' Skyborn Renewables, filed a supplemental complaint challenging the order, Orsted said. The complaint, filed in the U.S. District Court for the District of Columbia, would be followed by a motion for a preliminary injunction, it said.

U.S. Slashes Proposed Tariffs on Italian Pasta

The U.S. has stepped back from imposing trade-killing duties on Italian pasta makers, meaning that Italian-made pasta will most likely continue to be available in U.S. stores.

Previously, the U.S. Commerce Department had said it would slap antidumping duties of 92% on Italy's main pasta exporters as soon as January-a measure that Italian pasta makers said would force them to pull out of the U.S. market. Italy's government and the affected companies have been lobbying the Trump administration for weeks to revise the decision.

Iranian Protesters Killed as Unrest Turns Violent on Fifth Day

Violence erupted between Iranian protesters and police during unrest on Thursday, leaving at least five dead on the fifth day of demonstrations over the country's economic crisis.

Three people were killed during a demonstration outside a police station in Lorestan Province in western Iran, according to Fars news agency, which is affiliated with the paramilitary Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps. Another two people were killed during a protest near the governor's residence in Lordegan, another western Iranian province, Fars said.

Fire at Swiss Ski Resort Kills Roughly 40

CRANS-MONTANA, Switzerland-Roughly 40 people were killed and some 115 injured in a fire that suddenly broke out during New Year's celebrations at a bar in this quaint Swiss ski-resort town, authorities said.

Crowds of young revelers were packed into the bars of Crans-Montana to dance and drink Champagne when, at 1:30 a.m. local time Thursday, authorities say smoke was first spotted outside a bar called Le Constellation.

GLOBAL NEWS

Asian Factory Activity Gauges Signal Growth But Cost Pressures Cloud Recovery

The Asian manufacturing sector seems to be on firmer ground, wrapping up last year on an optimistic note as survey data signaled improving factory activity though rising cost pressures could cloud any recovery.

Purchasing managers index data from S&P Global released Friday showed improved manufacturing activity, including in export powerhouses Taiwan and South Korea.

Trump Rolls Back Tariffs on Furniture and Kitchen Cabinets

President Trump delayed by a year tariff increases on upholstered furniture, kitchen cabinets and vanities, the latest move to walk back levies in the face of consumer frustration over high prices.

The increased tariffs, announced in September to target lumber-based products, were set to go into effect on Jan. 1, according to a White House statement published on New Year's Eve.

The $358 Billion Question for the New CEO of Berkshire Hathaway

Greg Abel's time has come, and there's a $358 billion question on investors' minds: What will the new chief executive of Berkshire Hathaway do with all of that cash?

As Warren Buffett's handpicked successor, Abel faces several challenges as he takes the reins today. For one, he isn't Warren Buffett, who became a household name as the leader of one of America's most-admired companies. Shareholders don't know if Abel can channel the stock-picking magic of his predecessor, who earned the nickname the Oracle of Omaha.

As Signs of Aging Emerge, Trump Responds With Defiance

WASHINGTON-President Trump is taking more aspirin than his doctors recommend. He briefly tried wearing compression socks for his swelling ankles, but stopped because he didn't like them. And he regrets undergoing advanced imaging because it generated scrutiny of his health.

"In retrospect, it's too bad I took it because it gave them a little ammunition," Trump said in an interview with The Wall Street Journal on his decision to get a cardiovascular and abdominal scan in October. "I would have been a lot better off if they didn't, because the fact that I took it said, 'Oh gee, is something wrong?' Well, nothing's wrong."

Modi Taps India's Consumer Power in Trade Fight With Trump

NEW DELHI-On a recent Sunday in India's capital, Shrey Dixit, a 22-year-old engineering student, proudly drove a khaki green, Indian-made Hyundai sport-utility vehicle off a dealership lot.

Dixit's household, with several branches of the family living together, had shared one car for nearly a decade. But after India sharply cut sales taxes in September, the family realized buying the second car they had their eye on was suddenly more than $1,000 cheaper.

Venezuelan Exiles Root for U.S. Military Action. Those Left Behind Oppose It.

LIMA, Peru-The millions of Venezuelans who have fled the rule of Nicolás Maduro stand largely in solidarity with compatriots who stayed behind-except on the question of U.S. military intervention to change the regime.

Most of the eight million Venezuelans living in exile see American military action as the best shot to bring back democracy in a country they fear they may otherwise never see again, polls show.

Iranian Protesters Killed as Unrest Turns Violent on Fifth Day

Violence erupted between Iranian protesters and police during unrest on Thursday, leaving at least five dead on the fifth day of demonstrations over the country's economic crisis.

Source:morningstar

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Justin

Cryptocurrency

Political

Iran is looking to accept crypto payments in its sale of ballistic missiles, warships, and other advanced weapons, The Financial Times reported Thursday.

The Ministry of Defence Export Center (Mindex) reportedly stated it is prepared to negotiate military contracts allowing payment in digital currencies, as well as through barter arrangements and Iranian rials.

This offer, first introduced in 2025, marks one of the first known cases where a nation-state publicly indicated willingness to accept cryptocurrency as payment for weapons exports, the FT report said.

Mindex, as a state-run overseas defense seller, reportedly holds client relationships with 35 countries. Its official website showcases a variety of products, including missiles, rockets, ammunition, and hovercrafts.

Evading sanctions

Western powers, including the U.S., UK, and EU, have placed extensive sanctions on Iran, targeting its nuclear missile programs, oil sector, and access to international banking networks, forcing the regime to rely on barter trade and digital assets like bitcoin increasingly. Last month, the U.S. announced that it sanctioned 29 "shadow fleet" vessels that aided the covert delivery of Iran's oil and petroleum exports.

While sanctions continue to expand, Mindex states on its website that "there is no problem" in carrying out contracts.

"It should be noted that, given the general policies of the Islamic Republic of Iran regarding circumvention of sanctions, there is no problem in implementing the contract," Mindex wrote on the website. "Your purchased product will reach you as soon as possible."

Iran has already been utilizing cryptocurrencies to evade Western sanctions over the past several years.

Last September, the U.S. Treasury Department identified two Iranian nationals who facilitated over $100 million in bitcoin and other digital asset purchases to process the Iranian government's oil sales between 2023 and 2025. U.S. officials view such cases as part of Iran's much larger financial "shadow network."

Source: TradingView

Risk Warnings and Disclaimers

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Michelle

Forex

Economic

The first full trading week of the new year could shake the US stock market out of its winter holiday slumber as the monthly jobs data headlines a busy start to 2026 for investors.

Stocks slid in the final session of 2025, with the benchmark S&P 500 falling into a monthly loss for December. But the index still climbed more than 16% in 2025, its third straight year of double-digit percentage gains, while the Cboe Volatility index was last just above its lows for the year.

Trading volumes were thin at the end of 2025, but the new year could get off to an eventful start. Aside from economic data, investors await a US Supreme Court decision on President Donald Trump's tariffs along with his choice of a new Federal Reserve chair, and US corporate earnings season is around the corner.

While the S&P 500 is near record highs, it is also around the same level it was in late October, noted Matthew Maley, chief market strategist at Miller Tabak.

"The market is looking for direction," Maley said. "We break out of these ranges and that's going to give either people a lot of confidence or a lot of concern depending on which way it breaks."

Jobs data could send rate signals

The employment data due on Jan 9 could provide a jolt either way. Concerns over weakness in the labour market prompted the Fed to lower interest rates at each of its last three meetings of 2025, as the US central bank juggles its goals of full employment and contained inflation.

Lower rates have supported equities, but the extent of further cuts in 2026 is unclear. Fed officials were divided over the path for monetary policy at the most recent meeting in December. Inflation remains above the Fed's 2% annual target.

With the benchmark rate at 3.5%-3.75%, Fed funds futures suggest little chance of a cut at the next meeting in late January, but nearly a 50% chance of a quarter-point reduction in March.

"The fact that there has been softening in the labour market has really given the Fed good cover to change their outlook about reducing rates," said Eric Kuby, chief investment officer at North Star Investment Management in Chicago.

At the same time, investors are also wary that an overly weak report could signal more severe economic concern than markets currently anticipate.

Employment for December is expected to have climbed by 55,000 jobs, according to a Reuters poll. Payrolls rose by 64,000 in November, but the unemployment rate was 4.6%, a more than four-year high.

"If (employment) starts turning down in any kind of meaningful way, that's going to signal that the recession is a lot closer than people think," Maley said.

Inflation, 4Q earnings also loom

Other data next week includes manufacturing and services sector activity, along with job openings and other labour market data. Economic releases are returning to more normal schedules following the 43-day government shutdown that delayed or cancelled many key reports.

A closely watched report on inflation trends, the monthly US consumer price index, is due out on Jan 13.

"Anything that has to do with underlying economic activity and inflation is really going to catch the market's attention," said Scott Wren, senior global market strategist at Wells Fargo Investment Institute, adding that a backdrop of modest economic growth and moderating inflation is "a good environment for stocks and for risk assets in general".

Investors will be gearing up for fourth-quarter earnings season, with results from JPMorgan on Jan 13, along with other major bank reports that week.

With stocks trading at historically lofty valuations, investors are banking on strong earnings growth. Overall S&P 500 company earnings are expected to have climbed 13% in 2025, with another 15.5% rise in 2026, according to LSEG IBES data.

"To make an investment case for the S&P 500 at current levels, one must believe in some combination of good/very good earnings growth and continued investor confidence in economic conditions and macro policy," said Nicholas Colas, co-founder of DataTrek Research, in a research note.

Source: Theedgemarkets

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Economic

Commodity

Aluminum Breaks $3,000 Barrier as Global Supply Tightens

Aluminum futures surged past the $3,000 per ton mark for the first time in over three years on Friday, driven by growing concerns over constrained global supply and long-term demand optimism. The metal, which gained 17% in 2025 its strongest annual rally since 2021 continues to ride a wave of positive sentiment across the broader base metals sector.

The rally reflects structural supply limitations. In China, a cap on smelting capacity continues to restrict domestic output. Meanwhile, elevated energy prices in Europe have reduced production incentives, putting further pressure on global inventories. These supply-side constraints come just as demand from the construction and renewable energy sectors remains resilient, helping fuel speculative and strategic positioning in the futures market.

Copper, Nickel Join the Rally Amid Broad Metal Tightness

Aluminum wasn’t the only metal making headlines. Copper, the star performer among the six major London Metal Exchange (LME) industrial metals in 2025, resumed its climb after slipping 1.1% in the prior session. At $12,487 per ton, it’s up 0.5% on the day, continuing a year-end surge that saw the red metal reach multiple all-time highs.

Copper’s rise is largely attributed to a string of global supply disruptions. Major mines across Indonesia, Chile, and the Democratic Republic of the Congo faced accidents and operational delays throughout 2025. At the same time, trade tensions, particularly tariff-related concerns, led to a shift in shipments toward the U.S., amplifying tightness in available supply elsewhere.

Nickel also jumped, up 1.2% to $16,845 per ton. This followed an announcement by PT Vale Indonesia halting mining operations due to delayed approval of its 2026 work plan. While the company assured markets that operations remain sustainable and that approval is expected shortly, the delay stirred supply-side anxiety especially after Indonesia signaled plans to reduce national nickel output this year. December marked nickel’s strongest monthly gain since April 2024.

Iron Ore Steadies, Chinese Markets Remain Closed

Iron ore futures in Singapore rose modestly by 0.3% to $105.65 per ton. With Chinese markets closed for a public holiday, trading remained subdued, though sentiment continues to be supported by steel-sector restocking and hopes for construction stimulus from Beijing once markets reopen.

The breach of the $3,000/ton level by aluminum underscores growing investor conviction that supply constraints and long-term green infrastructure demand will continue to tighten industrial metal markets in 2026. From copper’s end-of-year rally to nickel’s sudden supply scare and aluminum’s upward breakout, the trend is clear: industrial metals are back in the spotlight.

With energy transitions, global infrastructure upgrades, and geopolitical supply vulnerabilities all converging, base metals appear poised to extend gains provided macroeconomic risks or demand shocks don’t derail momentum. Traders and manufacturers alike are watching closely for signals from China, Indonesia, and the U.S. that could either confirm or challenge this bullish trajectory.

Source: Bloomberg

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Economic

Treasuries Rally as Market Eyes More Rate Cuts in 2026

U.S. Treasuries continued their upward trajectory on the first trading day of 2026, building on their strongest annual return in five years. The benchmark 10-year yield dropped two basis points to 4.15%, while the 30-year yield slipped by one basis point to 4.84%, reversing earlier gains seen in morning trading.

This rally comes after a Bloomberg index tracking Treasuries posted a return exceeding 6% in 2025 the best since the pandemic-driven surge in 2020. The gains were supported by softening inflation pressures, a shift in Federal Reserve tone, and a sharp decline in bond market volatility, which has now fallen to its lowest level since early 2022.

Fed Outlook Drives Bullish Sentiment Despite Mixed Data

Investors are entering 2026 with strong conviction that more interest rate cuts are on the horizon, especially amid speculation that President Donald Trump will appoint a more dovish successor to Fed Chair Jerome Powell, whose term ends in May. This expectation serves as a key driver behind the demand for longer-dated Treasuries.

However, this outlook is being tested by economic fundamentals. Data released last week revealed that the U.S. economy expanded at its fastest pace in two years, raising questions about whether the Fed will act as swiftly or as deeply as markets anticipate. The disconnect between growth momentum and policy expectations introduces a degree of fragility to the Treasury rally, suggesting that incoming data could sharply alter the market’s course.

The release of the S&P Global U.S. Manufacturing PMI later on Friday is among the first data points likely to test this narrative, with further labor market and inflation readings expected in the coming weeks.

Global Bond Markets Show Divergence as U.S. Leads

While U.S. yields fell, global bond markets moved in the opposite direction. Germany’s 10-year bund yield rose as much as six basis points to 2.91% before paring gains, while the UK’s 10-year gilt yield climbed five basis points to 4.53%. These moves reflect a catch-up in trading activity, as European markets reopened following the New Year’s Day holiday and responded to earlier U.S. developments.

Australian bonds lagged most, with yields on three- and 10-year notes rising about nine basis points. This was partially driven by renewed speculation around rising commodity prices, which could reignite inflationary concerns in resource-heavy economies like Australia.

Issuance Calendar and Technicals to Play Key Role in January

January is traditionally a heavy month for bond issuance, and the resulting supply pressures could exert upward force on yields. Investors may require higher returns to absorb the influx of new government and corporate debt, which could temporarily dampen the rally unless balanced by continued dovish signals from the Fed or disappointing macroeconomic data.

U.S. Treasuries have entered 2026 with solid momentum, but whether that performance can be sustained will depend on a delicate balance between market expectations for rate cuts and the actual resilience of the U.S. economy. For now, bond markets are leaning into a dovish pivot but any surprises in inflation, labor, or leadership at the Fed could quickly test that assumption.

With Powell’s tenure winding down and Trump poised to reshape central bank leadership, Treasuries are not just a barometer of rate expectations they’re also a reflection of deepening uncertainty about how U.S. monetary policy will be shaped in a pivotal election year.

Source: Bloomberg

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Gerik

Economic

Majority of Americans Face a Retirement Readiness Gap

Despite the growing emphasis on long-term financial planning, a sobering new report by Vanguard reveals that fewer than half of U.S. retirement savers are adequately prepared to maintain their current lifestyle after exiting the workforce. The findings highlight a widening readiness gap one exacerbated by rising living costs, inconsistent saving habits, and uneven access to employer-sponsored retirement plans.

Older Gen Z workers (ages 24–28) currently exhibit the strongest trajectory, with 47% expected to maintain their lifestyle in retirement. This percentage drops with each older generation: 42% for Millennials, 41% for Gen X, and only 40% for younger Baby Boomers. While homeownership among Boomers (nearly 90%) offers some buffer through home equity, it does not replace the need for sufficient cash flow during retirement years.

The disparity reflects more than just age differences it indicates a cause rooted in access to defined contribution plans, early savings discipline, and structural changes in retirement benefits over time. Workers with access to defined contribution plans like 401(k)s or 403(b)s are twice as likely to meet their retirement goals compared to those without such plans.

Why Lifestyle Creep and Inadequate Savings Are a Threat

A key driver behind the shortfall is “lifestyle creep” the tendency to increase spending as income rises. Many Americans build their current lifestyle around higher earnings without proportionately increasing savings. Consequently, when they retire and income drops, the gap between desired and actual post-retirement lifestyle becomes unsustainable.

To mitigate this, financial advisors often recommend accumulating between 10 and 12 times one’s final salary by retirement, aiming to replace around 70%–80% of pre-retirement income. Unfortunately, many Americans fall short of this benchmark, particularly those who delay retirement planning or rely solely on Social Security benefits.

Solutions: From Catch-Up Contributions to Budget Planning

For those still in the workforce especially those approaching retirement there are practical solutions that can improve preparedness:

Delay retirement: Vanguard found that extending work life by even two years can significantly boost the number of individuals able to maintain their current lifestyle. This additional time allows for more contributions, compound growth, and delayed withdrawals.

Maximize employer match: With the median employer match at 4% of salary, workers not taking full advantage are forgoing substantial long-term gains. This match, over years of compounding, can close retirement gaps dramatically.

Make catch-up contributions: Those aged 50 and older can contribute more to retirement accounts. These higher limits offer late savers an opportunity to bridge deficits.

Track spending and adjust expectations: Managing post-retirement expenses is just as critical as accumulating wealth. Budgeting now can help forecast and control spending habits in retirement, from housing and transportation to medical care.

Retirement Isn’t One-Size-Fits-All Adaptability Is Key

Not everyone will reach their ideal savings target by retirement, but adaptability can help maintain financial stability. Downsizing homes, relocating to lower-cost areas, and reducing discretionary spending are common strategies among retirees.

Government programs also offer support for those facing financial strain. Medicare Savings Programs, energy assistance grants, food subsidies, and housing aid all contribute to a basic safety net. Meanwhile, part-time work is becoming increasingly normalized among older adults, with nearly 1 in 5 Americans aged 65 or older working or seeking employment as of 2024.

Retirement readiness is ultimately shaped by early participation in retirement plans, consistent savings, and the willingness to make informed lifestyle adjustments. While current data suggests less than half of Americans are positioned to preserve their lifestyle post-retirement, the tools and resources to change that outcome are widely available particularly for those who act early and often. Whether you're just starting your career or nearing retirement, understanding the variables that impact your financial future is the first step toward bridging the gap.

Source: Investopedia

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Economic

Equity Inflows Surge as AI Optimism and Earnings Outlook Fuel Market Momentum

U.S. investors closed out 2025 with renewed enthusiasm for equities, injecting $16.89 billion into U.S. equity funds during the week ending December 31, according to LSEG Lipper data. This marks the second consecutive week of strong inflows, following a $18.3 billion surge the week before, capping a year defined by a broad rally in tech-driven large-cap stocks and mounting optimism about 2026 earnings.

The S&P 500 advanced 16.39% in 2025, while the Nasdaq soared 20.36%, and the Dow Jones rose 12.97%, marking three consecutive years of gains across the major indexes. Analysts now expect earnings for large- and mid-cap U.S. companies to grow 15.13% in 2026, a notable upgrade from the 12.92% forecast for 2025.

The latest fund flow data reveals a clear investor preference for large-cap exposure. A net $16.87 billion flowed into large-cap equity funds, building on the prior week’s staggering $37.4 billion. These flows appear directly correlated with confidence in mega-cap tech and AI beneficiaries, which significantly outperformed in 2025.

Small and Mid-Caps Lag as Rotation Into Large-Caps Continues

While large-cap funds gained, investors pulled $1.42 billion from small-cap equity funds and $269 million from mid-cap funds during the same period. This divergence reflects both a cause-and-effect relationship and a sentiment shift: as interest rate expectations stabilize and market concentration intensifies, capital is rotating toward more established names perceived as safer and more profitable in an AI-accelerated economy.

The cautious stance toward smaller companies suggests concerns over capital costs, inflation pressure, and limited pricing power factors that disproportionately affect firms with less market share or weaker balance sheets.

Sector Rotation: Healthcare and Financials See Outflows

Sectoral fund flows were largely muted, with total net sales of $116 million for the week. Healthcare and financials bore the brunt of sector-specific selling, facing outflows of $502 million and $290 million, respectively. This could signal early repositioning ahead of 2026 policy or earnings headwinds, as both sectors are sensitive to interest rate movements and fiscal policy shifts.

Investors reversed course on fixed income, pulling $2.09 billion from U.S. bond funds the first weekly outflow in over three months. The most dramatic shift came in short-to-intermediate government and Treasury funds, which saw a $5.43 billion outflow, sharply offsetting the $7.68 billion inflow from the week prior.

This withdrawal likely reflects shifting expectations for the Federal Reserve’s rate policy, especially amid mounting political uncertainty over Fed leadership and possible rate cuts in 2026. Some investors may be taking profits or rebalancing portfolios into riskier assets with higher return potential.

Still, not all segments of fixed income suffered. General domestic taxable fixed-income funds and short-to-intermediate investment-grade funds attracted $1.17 billion and $920 million, respectively, suggesting selective demand for higher-quality corporate debt.

Money Market Funds Attract Defensive Flows

In a parallel move signaling caution, investors poured $83.71 billion into money market funds the largest weekly allocation in four weeks. This defensive positioning indicates that while equity sentiment remains bullish at the top end of the market, many investors are still wary of macroeconomic uncertainties and are parking funds in liquid, low-risk assets.

The final week of 2025 confirms that investors are entering 2026 with a mixed but optimistic posture. Large-cap and AI-related equity allocations remain dominant themes, while selective exits from small-cap equities and U.S. government debt suggest risk-aversion at the margins. The dramatic move into money market funds underscores that liquidity and capital preservation are still top of mind for many.

As the market transitions into 2026, the focus will likely center on corporate earnings, interest rate policy, and the unfolding leadership transition at the Fed. For now, investor flows reflect a balancing act chasing gains where growth appears robust, while hedging against volatility with high-grade debt and cash reserves.