European Bond Yields Are Rising Again, but Inflation Isn't to Blame

Economic

Summary:

European bond yields are rising despite stable inflation data as a surge in Japanese yields fuels global market repricing.

European sovereign bond yields have climbed sharply in recent days, driven by a global market sell-off sparked by rising Japanese yields, even as eurozone inflation shows little sign of accelerating.

According to flash estimates from Eurostat on Tuesday, eurozone annual inflation reached 2.2% in November, a modest uptick from 2.1% in October, and broadly in line with analysts’ expectations.

Despite the increase, month-over-month prices contracted by 0.3%, marking the first monthly decline since January and suggesting that disinflation pressures are still present.

Core inflation, which strips out volatile components such as energy and food, held steady at 2.4%, slightly below economists' forecasts of 2.5%. Services continued to be the main driver of inflation at 3.5%, followed by food, alcohol, and tobacco at 2.5%. Energy prices, meanwhile, remained a drag, falling 0.5% compared with a 0.9% drop in October.

Among member states, Estonia posted the highest annual inflation in November at 4.7%, followed by Croatia at 4.3%. In contrast, Cyprus and France saw only marginal year-on-year increases in consumer prices, at 0.2% and 0.8% respectively.

On a monthly basis, inflation rose most in Lithuania, up 0.4%, while several countries experienced declines. Malta recorded the sharpest drop, with prices falling 3.3%, followed by the Netherlands with a 1.4% decrease.

“The headline number continues to hover close to the European Central Bank’s 2% target, but the underlying picture remains uneven,” said Professor Joe Nellis, economic adviser at MHA.

“The disinflation trend is intact but fragile, and services-led pressures remain persistent.”

Separate data on Tuesday showed the eurozone’s seasonally adjusted unemployment rate at 6.4% in October, unchanged from September and slightly above expectations.

Youth unemployment remained elevated at 14.8%.

Among major economies, Spain led with the highest unemployment rate at 10.5%, followed by France at 7.7% and Italy at 6%, while Germany (3.8%) and the Netherlands (4%) had the lowest rates.

Compared with October 2024, the bloc’s jobless rate ticked up from 6.3%.

Japan triggers global bond repricing

Despite the largely benign inflation outlook and subdued economic activity in the eurozone, bond yields have surged in recent sessions. The primary catalyst: expectations of monetary tightening in Japan.

On Monday, Japan’s 10-year government bond yield jumped to a 19-year high before stabilising around 1.86% on Tuesday. The sharp move followed hawkish comments from Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda, who said the central bank would “weigh the pros and cons” of a rate hike and act “as appropriate”.

Market pricing now implies an 80% probability of a rate increase at the BoJ’s December 19 meeting, with even higher odds for January.

Strategists at BBVA said Ueda’s remarks signalled a recalibration rather than a full policy shift, noting that “real rates would remain deeply negative” .

German 30-year bond yields rose six basis points on Monday to 3.40%, nearing highs last seen in early September, which were the strongest levels since mid-2011. Ten-year Bund yields also jumped six basis points, to 2.75%.

Francesco Pesole of ING noted that Governor Ueda’s tone was unexpectedly hawkish, adding that political opposition to rate hikes — previously assumed under new Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi — may no longer be a constraint.

“Markets were caught off guard,” Pesole said.

Implications for the ECB

The upward pressure on European yields comes at a delicate time for the European Central Bank, which is widely expected to keep rates unchanged at its final meeting of the year in December. Analysts do not foresee cuts in the near term, with services inflation and weak economic growth creating a policy conundrum.

“Interest rates of 2% are already low,” said Nellis. “In the current climate, we are unlikely to see central banks in Western economies move much lower.”

While inflation appears broadly contained, spillovers from global markets — particularly Japan — could continue to drive eurozone yields in the near term, even in the absence of strong domestic triggers.

Source: Euronews

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Glendon

Forex

Economic

The US manufacturing sector clearly outperforms all its G7 peers, especially Germany, France, and the UK.

The main reason is that the United States never implemented the aggressive net zero emissions policy that has destroyed the industry by giving the reins of industrial policy to activists. In the latest S&P Global/HCOB PMI readings, the United States manufacturing sector is clearly expanding, while the UK is only slightly expanding, and Germany and France remain in contraction after years of decline.

The US also shows much stronger momentum in new orders and has better pricing power, margins, and investment plans than its European peers. Furthermore, the US has reduced CO₂ emissions and protected the environment without destroying its industrial fabric. According to the EIA, the United States has reduced its GHG/energy‑related CO₂ by 18% between 2010 and 2024, while the European Union is at a similar level, reducing emissions by 18–22%.

The latest flash S&P Global US Manufacturing PMI stands at 51.9 for November 2025, marking the tenth expansion reading in the past eleven months. On the other hand, Germany's Manufacturing PMI has fallen back to 48.4, while France remains below 50, signalling a contraction and indicating disastrous manufacturing performance in the past three years. The UK has only just edged back to 50.2, barely into growth after months of contraction. There is a clear structural difference: the US is in a continued, broad-based expansion phase, while the euro area's industry remains stuck in stagnation, and the UK has stabilised after years of a negative trend.

New orders show the trend in a clear way. In the US survey, new orders are in positive territory, supporting output and employment. In Germany, new orders are falling again, with reports of a sharp decline in export demand and renewed drops in backlogs and jobs, and France's manufacturers continue to report falling new business after more than three years of demand weakness, according to SP Global. The UK is seeing some modest improvement in domestic orders but still faces a drag from exports, whereas US factories benefit from a large internal market and reshoring‑related demand that is largely absent in the European Union.

If we analyse prices, the US manufacturing sector is in a much better position to defend its margins. The S&P Global US survey shows a moderate input cost increase, stable margins and no negative impact on demand. In Germany and France, the PMI reports describe a context where manufacturers face weaker pricing power, with output prices often under pressure and a fragile demand environment. It is undeniable that there is evidence of a profitability and cash‑flow advantage for US manufacturers.

European business surveys and experts frequently highlight that high energy prices, complicated regulations, and climate-related policies are hurting orders, investments, and pricing, while US producers benefit from lower energy costs and more flexible regulations. Thus, US manufacturers can maintain investment and job creation plans despite slower global growth, whereas most German, UK and French firms are trying to survive in an environment of rising regulatory and tax burdens, focusing on cost cuts and capacity control.

Europe's approach to net zero has clearly damaged the competitiveness of its energy‑intensive industries. The combination of carbon pricing, a hidden tax with no discernible positive final impact, renewable‑support surcharges, increasing regulated costs in electricity bills, and increasingly stringent wrongly called environmental restrictions are raising operating expenses for manufacturers that already face higher baseline energy prices than their US counterparts. Germany's chemical, metal, and glass sectors are often highlighted as examples of industries whose margins and investment plans have been damaged by expensive electricity and gas, aggravated by climate-related surcharges, and the rapid phase-out of nuclear and conventional generation.

In France, industrial firms have benefited from nuclear power and face lower energy costs than their German or UK competitors, but they still suffer from high network charges, environmental taxes, and regulatory uncertainty related to future climate policy, all of which weigh on long-term investment decisions. UK think tanks and strategy firms point out the same points, stressing that carbon prices, green levies, and planning barriers have made energy costs structurally higher than in the US, pushing some producers to relocate or scale back capacity. Across the three countries, leading business groups warn that accelerated decarbonisation timetables, combined with insufficient support for industrial transformation, have widened the gap in input costs, making some multinationals shift incremental investments to North America or other regions, according to PWC studies.

The net zero‑related burdens are direct causes of a weak PMI picture. When demand is weak and new orders are falling, as in Germany and France, higher regulatory and energy costs cannot be offset by higher selling prices, so firms respond by cutting investments, reducing capacity, and, in some cases, closing plants. In the UK, climate‑policy‑related costs and uncertainty add another layer of concern. The US has followed a tax-cut-driven approach to energy transition without destroying cheap alternatives, which helps PMI readings and explains stronger investment intentions than in Europe.

In the US, firms have announced ongoing investment increases related to reshoring, supply chain diversification and technology. In Germany and France, repeated references to prolonged downturns in new orders mean weaker investment plans, delays in large projects and a continued focus on efficiency rather than expansion.

US firms invest in capacity and drive productivity‑enhancing spending in digitalisation and robotics, supported by a combination of fiscal incentives, more competitive energy costs and a clearer policy environment for industrial decarbonisation, according to PWC.

The US manufacturing sector is "clearly winning" relative to Germany, France and the UK on all fronts: volume, pricing, technology, and future capacity. The US has focused its industrial policy in leaders of alternatives and proactive improvement, rather than giving all the power to ideologically motivated activists obsessed with regulation, limits, and taxes.

Unfortunately, nothing seems to be changing. Europe and the UK seemed to be handing the future of industry, automation and manufacturing investment to China and other nations under a misguided view of environmental protection based on "not in my backyard", while other countries grow and improve their environmental protection measures without abandoning key strategic sectors.

The US manufacturing sector is winning because its future was not left in the hands of PowerPoint activist politicians. This is a warning for Americans: if you copy Germany, France or the UK, you will face the stagnation and decline they are suffering.

Source: Zero Hedge

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Adam

Forex

We think the conditions for US Dollar weakening persist after yesterday’s rollercoaster ride. USD/JPY remains particularly vulnerable after the BoJ’s seemingly hawkish turn, while EUR/USD is awaiting some hints from crucial Ukraine-Russia peace negotiations

USD: Still Vulnerable

The dollar came under pressure yesterday during European hours but recovered during New York’s session, potentially thanks to some safe-haven flows abandoning high-beta currencies. Admittedly, the current market environment – bonds and risky assets both falling – isn’t giving clear-cut indications for FX. Some risk stabilisation is likely needed to bring the dollar lower, which remains our call for this week.

As discussed recently, the dollar remains expensive relative to its short-term rate differentials across most of the G10. Yesterday’s ISM manufacturing didn’t move pricing for a December cut as expected: prices paid were a bit higher than expected, but the headline index print was soft. We expect that the remainder of the week will validate the market’s dovish pricing for next week’s Fed meeting.

Part of yesterday’s market instability was driven by a bond market selloff in Japan following hawkish comments by BoJ Governor Kazuo Ueda. After yesterday’s spike in 10-year JGBs yields by around 6bp, this morning we see some calming and a decline of almost 3bp from the highs, and pricing for a December hike is 20bp.

USD/JPY briefly traded below 155.0 yesterday before the USD rebound: we think conditions for a new break lower this week are all there unless we hear some softening of the hawkish tone by Ueda or other officials.

EUR: Cool CPI Not a Game-Changer

Developments in the Russia-Ukraine peace talks remain the most relevant topic for the euro this week. As US Special Envoy Steve Witkoff meets with President Putin today, we should gain a clearer sense of how close we are to any agreement.

On the macro side, today’s CPI shouldn’t move the needle dramatically for ECB rate expectations. However, we expect this flash November estimate to show headline CPI slowing from 2.1% to 2.0% and core CPI from 2.4% to 2.3%, which are both 0.1 percentage points below consensus. If anything, the risks are slightly on the downside for the euro, but our expectation is for a neutral FX impact nonetheless and EUR/USD can eye 1.170 again soon if USD drops in line with our call.

Source: investing

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Samantha Luan

Political

Economic

A total of RM926.187 million has been approved by the government to manage Malaysia's Asean 2025 chairmanship, involving 326 meetings across the three main pillars of regional cooperation throughout this year, the Dewan Negara was told on Tuesday.

Foreign Minister Datuk Seri Mohamad Hasan said, however, that the account had not been closed as there are still Asean meetings taking place until the end of the year.

"For the Foreign Ministry alone, the allocation was RM560 million. It chairs the political and security pillar, the Ministry of Investment, Trade and Industry heads the economic pillar, while the social and cultural pillar is chaired by the Ministry of Tourism, Arts and Culture," he said during an oral question-and-answer session at the Dewan Negara sitting on Tuesday.

He was replying to a question from Senator Nik Mohamad Abduh Nik Abdul Aziz regarding the total cost of hosting the 47th Asean Summit and measures to ensure that spending remains prudent and provides economic returns.

Elaborating, Mohamad said that Malaysia's chairmanship created history with the hosting of the Asean-Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) Summit and the Asean-GCC-China Summit, an achievement never before attained by a chair country previously, given that all three blocs have strategic strengths in terms of natural resources, capital and large markets.

Mohamed stressed that Malaysia's priority is to increase intra-Asean trade, which is currently still below 25%, to reduce dependence on traditional markets.

Under Malaysia's chairmanship, the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP) negotiations, which had stalled since 2020, were successfully revived, while the renegotiation of the Asean Trade in Goods Agreement (Atiga) was also initiated.

In reply to a question on the economic returns from hosting Asean, Mohamad explained that the summit is not a bidding event like a sports event, but rather a periodic mandate every 10 years that provides long-term benefits through policy decisions, outcome documents and the strengthening of the Asean bloc with a population of over 700 million.

Benefits are also expected through platforms such as Atiga, the Asean Digital Economy Framework Agreement and the RCEP, which are designed to boost regional growth, while Malaysia's strategic position continues to attract high-tech and data centre investments.

"Just look at the investments flowing in...the Johor-Singapura Special Economic Zone alone has received RM17 billion in investments since its establishment in the middle of this year as multinational companies chose Johor due to the high operating costs in Singapore," he said.

In terms of geopolitical affairs, Mohamad said Malaysia's greatest success was implementing an inclusive agenda by accepting Timor-Leste as the 11th Asean member after more than a decade of waiting, as a result of consistent diplomacy.

Source: Theedgemarkets

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Adam

Commodity

Spot Gold Slips After Monday’s Breakout Attempt Falls Flat

Spot Gold is edging lower on Tuesday, giving back all of Monday’s gains after buyers ran out of steam near $4,264.70. The failed push above the November 13 high at $4,245.20 has traders reassessing — and for now, the bulls are on the back foot.

At 11:33 GMT, XAUUSD is trading $4196.36, down $35.93 or -0.85%.

Rising Treasury yields and some straightforward profit-taking are doing the heavy lifting on the downside. After a solid two-week rally from $4,000 to $4,250, it’s not surprising to see some traders cash in their chips.

The 10-year yield is holding near a two-week high, which doesn’t do non-yielding gold any favors. When yields climb, the opportunity cost of holding gold increases — and that’s enough to shake out some of the weaker hands.

The question now is whether dip-buyers step back in — and at what level.

$4,192.36 Is the Line in the Sand Today

This morning, gold is straddling the short-term Fibonacci level at $4,192.36. If buyers can defend that floor, the door stays open for another run at $4,264.70 and even the record high at $4,381.44. But if $4,192 fails to hold, expect a slide toward $4,133.95 — the 50% retracement level. That’s the last real buffer before the 50-day moving average down at $4,048.49.

Today’s action suggests investors may be shifting gears — stepping away from chasing strength and waiting for a better entry. The real question: is the attractive dip at $4,133, or are traders eyeing the 50-day down near $4,050?

All Eyes on Friday’s Data

With U.S. manufacturing contracting for a ninth straight month and the Fed staying quiet, traders are looking ahead. Wednesday’s ADP jobs report and Friday’s delayed PCE print should offer clearer signals on whether the Fed cuts rates at its December meeting. Markets are pricing in an 87% chance of a cut — and lower rates typically support gold.

There’s also chatter around Trump’s pick for the next Fed chair, with Kevin Hassett reportedly in the mix. Like Trump, Hassett favors lower rates — a potential tailwind for bullion if the appointment goes through. Any surprise on that front could jolt the market in either direction.

Short-Term Outlook: Bulls Need to Defend $4,192.36

Gold’s near-term path hinges on this Fibonacci level. Hold it, and buyers keep control with upside targets at $4,264.70 and the record high at $4,381.44. Lose it, and the pullback likely deepens toward $4,133 or even the 50-day at $4,048. Either way, expect choppy, range-bound trade between $4,000 and $4,400 until the Fed tips its hand.

Source: fxempire

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Michelle

Stocks

Economic

Tesla Inc.'s China factory shipments rose for only the third time this year amid a broader global downturn in sales for the Elon Musk-run company.

The company shipped 86,700 vehicles from its Shanghai plant in November, up 10% from a year earlier, according to preliminary data from China's Passenger Car Association Tuesday. This was the second-highest total for the company this year, trailing only September wholesales.

The gain represents a rare bright spot in China this year for Tesla, which is facing curbs on US federal subsidies for EVs and is on course for a second straight annual decline in global sales. Chinese EV giant BYD recently reported its third consecutive monthly decline in sales, while Geely Automobile Holdings Ltd. and Xiaomi Corp. benefited from hit models.

Although the preliminary figures don't break down the proportion of Tesla's shipments that are exported, the bulk of the vehicles built at the Shanghai factory are sold locally. The plant can produce as many as 950,000 EVs a year, accounting for about 40% of the company's total manufacturing capacity.

Data from China's PCA also showed November new energy vehicle sales — which include plug-in hybrid and fully electric vehicles — increased 20% year-on-year.

Source: Bloomberg Europe

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Adam

Economic

Asia Market Wrap - Asian Stocks Largely Flat

Asian stock markets bounced back after a selloff on Monday, which was led by sharp drops in risky assets worldwide, including cryptocurrencies.

The main MSCI regional stock index climbed as much as 0.5% before pulling back slightly. Markets that rely heavily on technology, such as South Korea and Taiwan, performed well.

However, Japan's Nikkei stock index ended Tuesday virtually flat, trading quietly after a 1.9% tumble on Monday that pushed it below the key 50,000 level. The biggest positive mover for the Nikkei index on Tuesday was Fast Retailing (the owner of Uniqlo), whose 1.8% rise contributed significantly to the index's value due to its large size. Conversely, the biggest drag on the Nikkei was the startup investor SoftBank Group, a major local beneficiary of the AI boom, which tumbled 5.2%.

Overall, the Nikkei was almost evenly split, with 112 stocks rising and 111 falling.

The broader Topix index also added a negligible amount, less than 0.1%, recovering slightly from its 1.2% slide the day before.

Euro Area Inflation Edges Higher

Inflation in the Euro area rose slightly in November 2025, hitting 2.2%, up from 2.1% in October, and slightly higher than experts expected.

The price increases for services sped up to 3.5%, the highest rate since April, and energy prices fell more slowly than before. Prices for factory-made goods and for food, alcohol, and tobacco remained unchanged. When you strip out the volatile items like energy and food (Core Inflation), the rate held steady at 2.4%.

Among the biggest European economies, Germany’s inflation rate jumped to 2.6%, the highest it has been since February and now above the European Central Bank's (ECB) 2% target. In contrast, inflation slowed down slightly in Spain (to 3.1%) and dropped more significantly in the Netherlands (to 2.6%).

Meanwhile, inflation in both France (0.8%) and Italy (1.1%) remained well below the ECB's target.

European Session - European Stocks Eye Recovery

European stock markets experienced a drop on Tuesday, continuing the minor declines from the previous day. The main European index, the STOXX 600, was down 0.1%.

However, major country stock exchanges like those in Germany and France were both up slightly, gaining about 0.1% each. Healthcare stocks were the biggest reason for the overall decline, falling 0.3% due to losses in large companies like AstraZeneca and Novo Nordisk.

Despite this, the sector's losses were contained because the German pharmaceutical firm Bayer surged by about 15%. This jump happened after the U.S. government, led by President Donald Trump's administration, encouraged the Supreme Court to hear Bayer's appeal to stop thousands of lawsuits related to its Roundup weed-killer supposedly causing cancer.

Meanwhile, other sectors like consumer discretionary stocks (including luxury goods and car companies) also traded lower. In other news, the market is monitoring a scheduled meeting between President Trump's special envoy, Steve Witkoff, and his son-in-law Jared Kushner with Russian President Vladimir Putin to discuss a potential ceasefire in Ukraine.

Among individual stocks, FDJ United shares fell 4.2% after J.P. Morgan lowered its rating on the lottery and online game operator. Finally, investors are now looking ahead to the release of preliminary inflation data for the euro zone later today.

On the FX front, the US dollar remained steady on Tuesday, helped by a successful sale of Japanese government debt that reassured investors after a selloff in bonds globally earlier in the week. The dollar went up 0.1% against the Japanese yen, reaching 155.72, after a strong auction of 10-year Japanese government bonds stabilized the bond market.

The overall US dollar index, which measures its strength against other major currencies, saw minor ups and downs but was last trading slightly higher at 99.441, ending a seven-day losing streak.

The euro was holding steady at $1.1610 as peace talks regarding the war in Ukraine continued; European leaders showed strong support for Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy, particularly after a previous US-supported peace plan seemed to favor Russia, while a US special envoy traveled to Moscow for more discussions.

The British pound was 0.1% stronger at $1.3217, remaining near its highest level in a month, despite the head of Britain's fiscal watchdog resigning after his agency accidentally released details of the government's budget before the Finance Minister announced them.

Finally, the Australian dollar gained 0.2% to 0.6553, and the New Zealand dollar (kiwi) was steady at 0.57264.

Currency Power Balance

Oil prices remained mostly stable on Tuesday. Traders were assessing two main risks: the first was the ongoing threat from Ukrainian drone attacks on Russian energy facilities, and the second was the increasing tension between the US and Venezuela.

Specifically, Brent crude futures dipped slightly by 19 cents (0.3%) to trade at 62.98 a barrel.

The current price of spot gold dropped by 0.9% to $4,191.79/oz.

This decline was primarily driven by two factors: the first was the increase in US Treasury yields, which makes holding gold (which does not provide interest) less appealing to investors; and the second was profit-taking by traders who decided to sell their gold after the price had reached a six-week high in the previous trading session.