EU Close To A Deal On Russian Assets, Summit To Go On Until Agreement

Political

Summary:

The European Union is very close to a solution to finance Ukraine in 2026 and 2027 that would have the support of at least a qualified majority of EU countries.

European Council President Antonio Costa arrives for the second day of the G20 Leaders' Summit at the Nasrec Expo Centre in Johannesburg on November 23, 2025.

● EU leaders to decide on Ukraine financing at Dec 18 summit.

● Belgium seeks guarantees on using frozen Russian assets.

● G7 countries urged to replicate EU's asset scheme.

The European Union is very close to a solution to finance Ukraine in 2026 and 2027 that would have the support of at least a qualified majority of EU countries, the chairman of EU summits, Antonio Costa, said on Tuesday.

EU leaders pledged on October 23 to bankroll Kyiv for the next two years as Ukraine fights off a Russian invasion and as U.S. financial contributions are drying up.

The leaders are to decide at a summit on December 18 in Brussels how to deliver on their pledge and Costa told reporters in Dublin he would keep them talking for days, if necessary, until they reach an agreement.

Since most EU governments struggle with large public debts, the preferred way for them to finance Ukraine's defence is to put to work some 210 billion euros ($244.15 billion) of Russian sovereign assets immobilised in Europe after Moscow invaded Ukraine in 2022.

Despite the political momentum, the project is not simple because Belgium, where most of the frozen assets are held, wants guarantees from other EU countries they would share any financial repercussions if Russia were to successfully sue Belgium over the scheme.

Discussions to give Belgium the guarantees are under way and will come to a head at the summit - the European Council.

"Now we are working on fine-tuning the legal and technical solution that could obtain the agreement of at least a qualified majority of member states. I think we are very close to obtaining a solution," Costa said.

"For me, it's sure that on the 18th of December we will take a decision. But as I shared with my colleagues, if it's necessary, we will continue on the 19th or the 20th of December - until we reach a positive conclusion," Costa said.

G7 SOLIDARITY

Keeping Ukraine financed and fighting is key for the EU because the bloc sees Russia's invasion of Ukraine as a threat to its own security. Most EU countries believe that as long as Moscow is militarily engaged in Ukraine it will not attack any EU countries, giving Europe time to prepare its defence.

The Commission wants to issue a Reparations Loan to Ukraine of up to 165 billion euros, by asking all institutions in EU countries holding Russian cash to exchange it for EU triple-A bonds issued by the Commission. The cash would then go to Ukraine in installments over the next two years.

To spread the risk of Russian retaliation, Belgium wants other G7 countries holding Russian sovereign assets, such as Britain, Canada or Japan, to replicate the EU scheme.

British Prime Minister Keir Starmer said on November 25 that London was ready to move with the EU on providing financial support to Ukraine based on the value of immobilised assets.

The Guardian newspaper reported on Monday that London was prepared to hand over 8.0 billion pounds of assets frozen in Britain to support Ukraine.

Canada said in October it would explore such an option. Japan has not specified what steps it would take to support Ukraine, while denying a media report it had rebuffed a European Union request to join plans to use frozen Russian assets.

Source: Reuters

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Daniel Carter

Economic

US Trade Representative Jamieson Greer is set to speak with a top Indonesian official this week in hopes of salvaging a trade framework at risk of collapsing, the Financial Times reported Tuesday.

Greer will speak to Airlangga Hartarto, the Indonesian coordinating minister for Economic Affairs, in an effort to revive a deal struck in July that would see US tariffs on Indonesian goods reduced from a threatened 32% to 19% in exchange for a series of concessions.

But US officials now believe Jakarta is reneging on agreements to eliminate non-tariff barriers on American industrial and agricultural exports as well as digital trade issues, the newspaper reported. The two sides are also clashing over an effort by the US to include clauses that Indonesia sees as an infringement on its economic sovereignty, according to the FT.

Representatives for the White House and US Trade Representative did not immediately respond to a request for comment on Tuesday night.

Under the deal announced in July, Indonesia announced plans to purchase some $19 billion in American products, led by 50 Boeing Co. jets, and erase duties on imports from the US. The country also agreed to eliminate some requirements on products including local content that had complicated efforts to sell American products in the country. President Donald Trump said at the time he had dealt directly with Indonesian President Prabowo Subianto to finalize the agreement.

Since then, Trump unveiled a flurry of trade frameworks with Thailand, Cambodia, Vietnam and Malaysia that saw similar agreements to reduce tariff barriers, including on industrial and agricultural products.

While the US president has eagerly agreed to sweeping trade pacts – and quickly adjusted tariff rates in response – fuller negotiations on specific terms have repeatedly proved protracted and difficult.

Source: Bloomberg Europe

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Manuel

Stocks

Economic

U.S. banks including JPMorgan Chase and Wells Fargo said artificial intelligence will boost productivity at their companies and likely cause job losses.

JPMorgan Chase's consumer and community banking chief Marianne Lake said at the Goldman Sachs financial services conference the bank has doubled ‌productivity to 6% with AI, from a previous 3% without it.

Operation specialists' productivity is expected to grow by 40% to 50%, Lake said. The higher ‌productivity means less impact jobs on a net basis, she said.

AI represents the biggest technological upheaval to the world economy since the rise of the internet.

It has brought trillions of dollars of investment and dizzying stock-market gains, but also a shortage of memory chips, regulatory scrutiny, and rising anxiety about job displacement.

Wells Fargo CEO Charlie Scharf said the bank has not reduced the number of ⁠people, but added "we're getting a lot more ‌done" because of AI.

"There are other places out there where we're gonna be able to look at and figure out, how are we able to do more with less people," he said.

"It's ‍not going to totally replace humans, but does create an opportunity to do things significantly different."

PNC Financial CEO Bill Demchak said the bank's head count is the same as it was 10 years ago when the bank was a third of the size - all through the process of automation and branch optimization.

"You know, the big buzz right now is it's going to continue because AI is ‌going to drive it. But we've been on a journey of automation for years, and AI may well be an accelerant," he said.

"It will most definitely be an accelerant in our tech headcount."

Citigroup's incoming CFO Gonzalo Luchetti said the bank has seen a 9% productivity increase on the coding front.

"Not only can we increase the self-service ratio, which we're already seeing and doing with our Gen AI, but in addition we're able to assist real time those calls that end up with ⁠a human and they can be more productive," Luchetti said, referring to the U.S. Personal Banking unit.

In October, Goldman Sachs informed employees of potential job cuts and a hiring slowdown through the end of the year, according to an internal memo seen by Reuters, as the Wall Street giant aims to use AI to enhance productivity.

Calling the ‍initiative "OneGS 3.0", the memo said some ⁠of the priorities for its AI initiative are sales and client on-boarding process, as well as other critical areas such as lending processes, regulatory reporting, and vendor management.

Bank of America plans to spend billions of dollars on ⁠technologies Such as artificial intelligenceto boost bankers' productivity and bring in more revenue, its chief technology and information officer told Reuters last month.

Source: Reuters

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Commodity

Oil declined for a second day, dragged lower by weakness in refined products, as traders await data expected to shed light on the extent of crude surpluses.

West Texas Intermediate dipped 1.1% to settle near $58 a barrel, pressured by routs in diesel, gasoline and other products. The difference between the price of US gasoline and crude oil, known as a crack spread, fell to the weakest since February, while a comparable gauge for diesel also slid.

Refined products had been one of few tailwinds for crude this year, and the recent demand-driven weakness is exacerbating a sense of bearish gloom ahead of a widely telegraphed glut. Oil Drops for Second Straight Session With Supply Glut in Focus_1

Oil Drops for Second Straight Session With Supply Glut in Focus_1

Some trend-following commodity trading advisers were selling positions in the products, according to data from Bridgeton Research Group. Such market participants can intensify price momentum.

Traders are looking ahead to a slew of reports from the International Energy Agency and OPEC set to be published this week, as well as a Wednesday decision on monetary policy from the Federal Reserve. US crude output is expected to hit a record 13.61 million barrels a day this year, according to the Energy Information Administration’s Short-Term Energy Outlook released Tuesday, adding to short-term oversupply concerns.

The IEA has predicted a record oil surplus next year, and the volume of crude crossing oceans is rising. Fuel prices have softened in recent days, removing one factor that had supported crude during the past few weeks. Still, the US oil benchmark remains in the tight $4-a-barrel range it has traded in since the start of November.

“Eventually, the current huge blob of oil at sea will move onshore where the sensation of rising crude oil stocks will be more tangible,” said Bjarne Schieldrop, chief commodities analyst at SEB AB. “The only reason why Brent crude hasn’t fallen faster and deeper is because of the US sanctions related to Rosneft and Lukoil,” he said in reference to the blacklisting of the Russian oil giants.

Source: Bloomberg

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Commodity

Central Bank

Gold gained on Tuesday as traders remained optimistic ahead of the U.S. Federal Reserve's interest rate decision, while silver rose to hit an unprecedented $60 per ounce milestone amid supply constraints.

Spot gold rose 0.6% to $4,211.77 per ounce by 03:21 p.m. ET (2021 GMT). U.S. gold futures for February delivery settled 0.4% higher at $4,236.2 per ounce.

Spot silver climbed 4.3% to $60.74 per ounce, hitting an all-time high.

"People are anticipating that there's going to be strong industrial demand for silver for years to come, which is why it's been bid up, the silver price," said Fawad Razaqzada, market analyst at City Index and FOREX.com, adding that the buying momentum is strong at the moment.

Sectors including solar energy, electric vehicles and their infrastructure, and data centers and artificial intelligence will drive industrial demand higher through 2030, the Silver Institute industry association said in a research report.

Silver prices have also been supported by persistently low supplies and dwindling global inventories, expectations of the Fed easing interest rates, as well as its recent addition to the U.S. critical minerals list.

"Metals are volatile by nature, but unless we fix the deficit, silver only has one way to go, and that is up," said Maria Smirnova, senior portfolio manager and chief investment officer at Sprott Asset Management.

On the U.S. policy front, the Fed's two-day meeting ends with a decision on Wednesday. Traders now see an 87.4% chance of a 25-basis-point cut this week.

"The move in gold right now is attributed to the big spike in silver and the high expectations for another quarter-point cut," said RJO Futures senior market strategist Bob Haberkorn.

Meanwhile, the U.S. Labor Department's JOLTS report showed job openings rose to 7.67 million in October, beating forecasts of 7.15 million, indicating a strong labor market.

Gold has shrugged off the jobs report, Haberkorn said, adding "we could see silver trade over $70 an ounce in the first half of 2026, and gold is on a path towards $5,000 an ounce."

Platinum gained 2.8% to $1,688.39/oz, while palladium rose 2.6% to $1,503.74/oz.

Source: Reuters

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Political

The U.S. Senate will vote on Thursday on a Republican-proposed healthcare plan, Senate Majority Leader John Thune said on Tuesday, as Democrats continued to push for a three-year extension of expiring Affordable Care Act subsidies.

The COVID-era subsidies, which help offset premium costs for the plans, also known as Obamacare, are set to expire at year end, which could affect up to 24 million people who rely on the program.

Late on Monday, Republican Senators Bill Cassidy of Louisiana and Mike Crapo of Idaho, who chair two committees with oversight of healthcare, unveiled legislation they are seeking as an alternative to the Democrats' plan.

"It actually does make health insurance premiums more affordable," Thune said as he announced that the Senate would vote on the Republicans' plan.

The plan would direct up to $1,500 into health savings accounts for individuals earning less than 700% of the federal poverty level. It also would bar the funds from being used for abortion or "gender transition services," according to a summary released by the two senators.

They said the measure also would contain a provision to lower insurance premiums by 11% in 2027 and would reduce federal Medicaid funding to states that provide healthcare coverage to "illegal immigrants."

Democratic Majority Leader Chuck Schumer told reporters on Tuesday the Republican bill is "dead on arrival" and called it “junk insurance.”

A vote on Democrats' proposal to extend the subsidies will also be held on Thursday, although the measure is unlikely to pass due to insufficient Republican support.

Source: Reuters

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Stocks

Months after Oracle's (ORCL) $400 billion-plus contract backlog ignited a stock-market frenzy, the enthusiasm has given way to doubts about its reliance on OpenAI and debt-fueled datacenter buildout, which will dominate its earnings on Wednesday.

A smaller player in the cloud market for a long time, Oracle this year staked claim as one of the bigger providers of the rented ‌computing power essential for generative AI thanks to its tie-up with ChatGPT-creator OpenAI.

It is vying with industry giants Amazon.com, Microsoft and Google for a piece of the lucrative market ‌as companies adopt AI and startups developing the technology rush to secure access to capacity.

Oracle along with other big cloud players is expected to spend more than $400 billion on AI infrastructure this year.

Analysts have said a big portion of Oracle's capital expenditure is tied to OpenAI-related datacenters. That has sparked investor worries as details are scarce on how OpenAI - valued at $500 billion but still unprofitable - plans to fund its spending, which total more than $1 trillion by 2030.

Concerns ⁠have also mounted that the AI boom driving ‌up valuations is turning into a bubble amid a lack of real-world adoption for the technology, sparking a selloff in Oracle's shares and bonds.

STOCK SELLOFF

Its stock has eroded all the gains from a stunning 36% jump on September ‍10 after it announced the backlog at its last earnings, even as shares remain higher by nearly a third for the year.

Meanwhile, its five-year credit default swaps, which offer bondholders a hedge against default, have shot to record highs as it borrows heavily for the datacenter buildout.

"While the setup for the quarter is good, investors are likely to be more focused on the fundamentals of the AI build-out and its financial implications," Bernstein analyst Mark Moerdler said ‌in a note for the fiscal second-quarter results.

The $300 billion OpenAI data-center contract gives Oracle "unprecedented single customer revenue exposure", he said.

To allay some of the concerns, Oracle had said in October it expects cloud infrastructure revenue to grow to $166 billion in fiscal 2030 and that fresh bookings were coming in from a range of customers, not just OpenAI. It also touted a $20 billion new deal with Meta Platforms.

UPBEAT EARNINGS EXPECTED

For now, AI is expected to drive strong growth at Oracle, with cloud infrastructure revenue expected to surge 71.3% in the September-November period, faster than the 55% growth seen in ⁠the prior quarter, according to data from Visible Alpha.

That would mirror the strong growth reported by cloud giants Amazon.com, Microsoft and Alphabet-owned Google Cloud in their latest earnings reports.

Overall, Oracle's revenue is expected to rise 15.3% to $16.21 billion, which would mark the fastest pace in more than two years, according to data compiled by LSEG. Net profit is expected to increase 13.3%.

After a report raised questions about ‍its margins from cloud deals, Oracle had ⁠said it expected to achieve adjusted gross margins of between 30% and 40% for delivering AI cloud computing infrastructure, while other segments such as more cloud software and infrastructure for business customers would have margins of between 65% and 80%.

If OpenAI fails and the ⁠contract goes away, Oracle would need to scale back the build out, write off some contracts and start working down the debt, but it would not default, said Gil ‌Luria, analyst at D.A. Davidson.

If "OpenAI achieves super-intelligence, spends $1.4 trillion, none of us have to ever work again, and Oracle is ‌fine", he said.