EU And US Near Trade Deal With 15% Tariffs - FT

Economic

Summary:

The European Union and United States are approaching a trade agreement that would set 15 percent tariffs on European imports, according to a Financial Times report.

Under the proposed agreement, both sides would eliminate tariffs on certain products, including aircraft, spirits, and medical devices.

The European Commission, which manages EU trade policy, provided a briefing to member state representatives on Wednesday following discussions with American officials.

Since April, European exporters have been paying an additional 10 percent tariff on goods exported to the United States, on top of existing duties that average 4.8 percent. These talks have been ongoing while the extra tariffs remained in place.

Sources indicated the 15 percent minimum tariff would incorporate the existing duties, leading Brussels to view the arrangement as maintaining current conditions. Notably, tariffs on automobiles, currently at 27.5 percent, would decrease to 15 percent under the proposed agreement.

Source: Yahoo Finance

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Daniel Carter

Political

Middle East Situation

Iran's President Masoud Pezeshkian has said his country is remains prepared and vigilant for any war Israel might launch against it, while conveying that he is not optimistic about the ceasefire continuing to hold.

"We are fully prepared for any new Israeli military move, and our armed forces are ready to strike deep inside Israel again," Pezeshkian told Al Jazeera in a fresh interview. He emphasized that Iran's nuclear program will continue, but asserted it is only for peaceful nuclear energy purposes.

"We are not very optimistic about it," Pezeshkian said of the ceasefire which ended the 12-day war in June, which also saw America's involvement at the tail-end. "That is why we have prepared ourselves for any possible scenario and any potential response. Israel has harmed us, and we have also harmed it. It has dealt us powerful blows, and we have struck it hard in its depths, but it is concealing its losses."

He described Israel's strikes as having sought sought to "eliminate" Iran's hierarchy - including slain nuclear scientists, military leaders, and some top officials. "but it has completely failed to do so".

The Iranian leader said that continued uranium enrichment would development of its nuclear abilities would be carried out "within the framework of international laws" despite opposition from most international powers.

"Trump says that Iran should not have a nuclear weapon and we accept this because we reject nuclear weapons and this is our political, religious, humanitarian and strategic position," Pezeshkian said.

"We believe in diplomacy, so any future negotiations must be according to a win-win logic, and we will not accept threats and dictates."

And that's when he issued his most directly challenging words to Trump yet, saying "that our nuclear program is over is just an illusion" while emphasizing "Our nuclear capabilities are in the minds of our scientists and not in the facilities."

According to President Trump's latest words on the matter, revealed in a Monday night Truth Social post, he's ready and willing to order the US military to bomb Iran's nuclear facilities again "if necessary".

"Of course they are destroyed, just like I said, and we will do it again, if necessary! As interviewed by Bret Baier," Trump said in reference to Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi having told Baier earlier that day that the nuclear sites were "very severely" damaged and "destroyed" by the US strikes.

Key clip from the FOX interview of the Iranian top diplomat's words

"Fake News CNN should immediately fire their phony 'reporter' and apologize to me and the great pilots who 'OBLITERATED' Iran's nuclear sites," Trump added, referring to a report that said US intelligence assessed the US airstrikes merely set back the program by a few months.

To some degree the Iranians could simply be playing Trump's game in signaling to the US what he wants to hear. Even if the Islamic Repoublic's nuclear sites were not fully and truly destroyed, it remains in Tehran's best interest right now to present it as if it is so, regardless.

Source: Zero Hedge

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Thomas

Economic

President Donald Trump announced a trade agreement with Japan on Tuesday, making it the largest U.S. trade partner to broker an accord as the White House threatens to impose tariffs on dozens of countries within days.

Before the deal, Japan faced the prospect of a 25% tariff rate set to take effect Aug. 1. Instead, products from the fifth-largest U.S. trade partner will be slapped with a 15% tariff, in exchange for a willingness on the part of Japan to import some goods, among other concessions.

In a post on social media late Tuesday, Trump touted the agreement as a “massive deal.” The White House has yet to release full details of the agreement.

Japanese Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba also celebrated the accord. “With the national interests of both countries in mind, we were able to reach an agreement at this time,” Ishiba said.

Japan's Nikkei index surged 3.5% on Wednesday, while major U.S. indexes nudged slightly higher in early trading.

Here’s what to know about what’s in the trade agreement and what comes next:

What’s in the U.S. trade agreement with Japan?

The trade agreement lowers the tariff rate on Japanese products to 15%, putting it below the threatened rate of 25% but higher than a universal rate of 10% faced by nearly all imports.

Even more, the U.S. agreed to set a 15% tariff on Japanese cars, putting it below the 25% tariff rate placed on imported vehicles from other nations.

Japan purchased nearly $80 billion worth of U.S. products in 2024, while the U.S. bought about $148 billion worth of Japanese goods, according to the Office of the U.S. Trade Representative, a government agency.

Cars and auto parts accounted for about $52 billion worth of imported Japanese products, making up more than one-third of products purchased by the U.S., government data shows.

Shares of Japan-based Toyota soared more than 13% on Wednesday, while Honda jumped about 12%.

In exchange for the softening of U.S. tariffs, Japan agreed to open its economy to imports of trucks, rice and other agricultural goods, Trump said.

Japan also agreed to invest $550 billion in the U.S. economy, Trump added, but the president did not specify how the funds would be spent.

Andrew Caballero-Reynolds/AFP via Getty Images - PHOTO: President Donald Trump delivers remarks during a meeting with Philippine President Ferdinand Marcos Jr. in the Oval Office at the White House, July 22, 2025 in Washington.

How many trade agreements has the White House achieved so far?

When Trump delayed the onset of so-called “reciprocal tariffs” in April, the White House vowed to strike 90 trade agreements in 90 days. Before that deadline elapsed, Trump proposed a flurry of similar country-specific tariffs with a new effect date of Aug. 1.

Source: Yahoo Finance

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Adam

Economic

You might say this week’s chart is displaying renewed energy…

It’s yet another breakout —and one which follows on from a classic boom-bust cycle that kicked off in the final phases of the first Trump presidency (and now finds a surprising renewed bullishness in Trump’s second go).

We’re of course looking at Global Renewable Energy stocks.

After coiling into a symmetrical triangle, we’ve seen a breakout, and this is interesting because it echoes several important investment themes…

ESG Backlash Back-off: You can basically track the ESG backlash of the past couple of years in the data (Google) search interest, Carbon prices, fund flows), and the interesting thing is that I would say the backlash is done. Interest is picking up again, and while it might be done differently going forward, ESG is here to stay, and today’s chart in many respects represents some of the renewed life it’s having.

Presidential Sentiment Signals: the 2020/21 boom-bust cycle in renewable energy stocks peaked almost bang on with the Biden inauguration; meanwhile, renewable energy stocks are now breaking out under Trump. Ironic given the opposing stances those two have on renewable energy and a telling lesson in markets and sentiment.

AI Energy: I think it is fair to say some of the renewed interest is coming from the anticipated and actual surge in energy demand from AI and data centers.

Energy Transition and Capex Boom: but also the Great Electrification going on globally as more countries push forward on the energy transition, EV adoption ticks up, and robotics +AI make strides.

Speculation Rejuvenation: and let’s face it, another key facet is the renewed speculative fervor taking hold across markets. It’s the more blue-skies and story-driven areas of the market, like renewable energy, that get most easily swept up in waves of rising speculation and risk appetite.

Global Equities Bull Market: As I explain below in the bonus chart, it is increasingly clear that a new bull market is taking hold; particularly in global stocks —it’s only natural that a rising tide floats this boat.

So it’s a fascinating chart. Just by itself from a market technician standpoint, it looks great, looks like one of those fabled big breakouts… but also fascinating because of the various themes and trends that it represents.

As to how sustainable it is, I would keep an open mind — there’s definitely a macro-fundamental case to be made, and again from a technical standpoint, it looks great, so it’s not something I would be betting against.

Charting a Comeback: Is Renewable Energy Entering Its Second Wave?_1

Key point: Renewable energy has gone from boom to bust, and now breakout.

Bonus Chart — Global Bull Market Count

Following on from the above, as alluded to, there are more and more signs of a new cyclical bull market in global equities. Adding to the list this week is the rapidly growing count of “bull markets” — in this case operationalized as the percentage of stock markets that are up at least 20% off their 52-week low.

The latest reading for this indicator (which tracks the main equity benchmark of 70 different countries) is 61%, which is the highest reading since 2021.

This comes on the back of a falling US dollar, global rate cut rush, big sentiment reset and positioning shakeout back in April, and still cheap valuations for most of the world’s stock markets. In other words, it’s more than just fun with charts

Charting a Comeback: Is Renewable Energy Entering Its Second Wave?_2

Source : investing

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Daniel Carter

Political

Thailand has recalled its ambassador to Cambodia and will expel Cambodia's ambassador, the ruling Pheu Thai Party said on Wednesday following a landmine incident that injured a Thai soldier along the disputed border between the two countries.

The Thai Foreign Ministry has lodged a formal protest with Cambodia, saying the landmines found in the area were newly deployed and had not been encountered during previous patrols, the party said on social media.

Thailand has downgraded diplomatic relations with Cambodia, it said.

Cambodia's government did not immediately respond to a request for comment. Its government spokesperson referred Reuters to the foreign ministry.

Thailand's foreign ministry said it had yet to be informed of the decision to recall the Thai envoy and the plan to expel Cambodia's ambassador.

The government has also ordered the closure of all border checkpoints under the jurisdiction of Thailand's Second Army, the Pheu Thai Party said.

"Tourists are strictly prohibited from entering these border areas," it said.

In the landmine incident on Wednesday, the soldier sustained injuries and lost his right leg, the party said.

Earlier, Thailand accused Cambodia of placing landmines on the Thai side of the disputed border area after three soldiers were injured, but Phnom Penh denied the claim and said the soldiers had veered off agreed routes and triggered a mine left behind from decades of war.

Thai authorities said the soldiers were injured, with one losing a foot, by a landmine while on a patrol on July 16 on the Thai side of the disputed border area between Ubon Ratchathani and Cambodia's Preah Vihear Province.

Cambodia's foreign ministry denied that new mines had been planted, and said in a statement on Monday night that the Thai soldiers deviated from agreed patrol routes into Cambodian territory and into areas that contain unexploded landmines.

The country is littered with landmines laid during decades of war.

Source: Reuters

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Warren Takunda

Cryptocurrency

Key points:

Bitcoin dives more than 2% from its $120,000 daily high to swipe bid liquidity in an anticipated move.

Market projections nonetheless see a deeper retracement coming.

“Froth” is starting to appear across crypto as altcoin open interest hits new all-time highs.

Bitcoin dipped to take bid liquidity at Wednesday’s Wall Street open as traders eyed new BTC price bottom targets. Bitcoin Grabs Bid Liquidity as BTC Price Dip Targets Include $113K_1

Bitcoin Grabs Bid Liquidity as BTC Price Dip Targets Include $113K_1

BTC/USD 1-hour chart. Source: Cointelegraph/TradingView

Bitcoin initiates classic liquidity grab

Data from Cointelegraph Markets Pro and TradingView showed BTC/USD falling over 2% on the day.

The pair had passed the $120,000 mark after the daily open, but momentum quickly vanished as sell-side pressure took over.

Earlier, Cointelegraph reported on exchange order-book liquidity, calling for a return to the $117,500 zone. Bitcoin Grabs Bid Liquidity as BTC Price Dip Targets Include $113K_2

Bitcoin Grabs Bid Liquidity as BTC Price Dip Targets Include $113K_2

As traders eyed over $500 million in cross-crypto liquidations over the past 24 hours, data from CoinGlass showed new ask liquidity being added closer to the spot price.

“The liquidity of long and short high leverage is very juicy,” CoinGlass had told X followers in part of a post earlier Wednesday. Bitcoin Grabs Bid Liquidity as BTC Price Dip Targets Include $113K_3

Bitcoin Grabs Bid Liquidity as BTC Price Dip Targets Include $113K_3

BTC liquidation heatmap (screenshot). Source: CoinGlass

Commenting on market structure, market participants began to see the potential for a deeper BTC price correction to shore up support.

“Not an actual breakout upwards on $BTC,” crypto trader, analyst and entrepreneur Michaël van de Poppe concluded about the overnight trip to $120,000.

“Again a liquidity sweep and back in the range, which makes it likely that we're going to retest the lows of the range again.”BTC/USDT 2-hour chart with RSI data. Source: Michaël van de Poppe/X

Popular trader Crypto Virtuos suggested that $113,000 could come next thanks to the presence of an important Fibonacci retracement level.

“I think, we might see a short retrace/correction. Could be 6/7% and that could push the price to the .618 level which is 113K, after that, we could see another push upwards,” part of an X post summarized.

Crypto Virtuous added that he was “pretty optimistic” about the eventual rebound, with Fibonacci analysis suggesting a target of $138,000. Bitcoin Grabs Bid Liquidity as BTC Price Dip Targets Include $113K_5

Bitcoin Grabs Bid Liquidity as BTC Price Dip Targets Include $113K_5

BTC/USDT 1-day chart with Fibonacci levels. Source: Crypto Virtuos/X

Warning over altcoin “froth” amid record OI

Elsewhere, onchain analytics firm Glassnode warned about crypto market “froth” coming for the current altcoin surge.

In particular, high levels of open interest (OI) across derivatives markets puts upside momentum at risk.

“Such conditions point to a degree of froth starting to form in the market, and may leave it more susceptible to sharp volatility,” it warned Tuesday in the latest edition of its regular newsletter, “The Week Onchain.”

“Elevated leverage tends to amplify both upside and downside volatility, and can contribute to a more reflexive and fragile market environment.”Top altcoin OI. Source: Glassnode

OI for four of the top altcoins by market cap passed $40 billion on Monday, Glassnode data confirms, marking a new all-time high.

Source: Cointelegraph

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Adam

Forex

European markets have opened to news of a US-Japan trade deal. Equity markets globally are rallying on the view that deals reduce uncertainty. The Japanese yen, however, is less certain of what this all means – especially given the prospect of an imminent resignation from Japan’s PM Ishiba. Elsewhere, commodity currencies continue to do well as industrial metals rally

USD: Trade Deals Are Good News for Risk Assets

Equity markets are trading higher around the world on news that President Trump has announced a trade deal between the US and Japan. The deal is being pitched as a ’win-win’ in that US tariffs on Japanese goods – including autos – are ’only’ 15% compared to the 25%+ previously threatened, while Japan is said to have committed to purchasing US planes and rice, and rather unbelievably, to establishing a $550bn sovereign wealth fund that would invest in the US under the direction of President Trump. Let’s see how far that idea progresses.

Looking at Japanese markets, we can see Japanese equities up 3%, 10-year JGB yields +6bp and the 1m JPY OIS rate priced in one year’s time +8bp. So far, so yen bullish. Yet USD/JPY is flat around 147, and that probably has to do with politics.

Having got the trade deal over the line, it looks like Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba is ready to take responsibility for the poor Upper House election result and resign. That ushers in a period of political uncertainty and questions how any new PM will work with opposition parties – more fiscal expansion? – and what pressure is brought to bear on the Bank of Japan.

With so much uncertainty and low volatility still favouring carry, we do not see a strong rationale for the yen to trade a lot stronger from here.

Elsewhere, we note industrial metals continuing to rally and the terms of trade rising for currencies like the Australian dollar, Brazilian real and South African rand. These currencies also act as a hedge should Fed Chair Powell be ousted and the commodity sector be viewed as an inflation hedge in the event of premature Fed easing. This trend may have legs.

In terms of the big dollar, price action has been poor. This week’s losses could somehow represent a catch-up with some lower US yields seen last week or merely represent some investor re-allocation out of the US and into, say, Europe or Emerging Markets on a global growth play.

For today, the US focus will be on the June existing home sales release. Some are thinking that the housing sector will be the next shoe to drop in the US slowdown. However, our team sees some slight upside risk to today’s data based on the recent bounce in mortgage applications. If so – and given the more mixed USD/JPY environment today – US Dollar Index (DXY) could see a retracement to 98.

EUR: Quietly Bid

It did not take a lot for EUR/USD to push through last week’s 1.1720 high, a move we had not been expecting. If the move had been based on fears of another cliff-edge on tariffs on 1 August and a mini repeat of the ’Liberation Day’ sell-off in US assets, then the overnight deal with Japan should calm some nerves. And the cross-asset story yesterday did not support such a narrative.

Instead, we suspect that EUR/USD demand is related to the ongoing rotation out of assets in the equity, government bond and credit space. Indeed, news from the credit space is that global investors are showing a keener interest in euro-denominated products, and issuers are obliging. This is bound to be a story we’ll be tracking closely and one that we flagged in this report on the opportunities for the euro.

Technicals are supportive for EUR/USD after three weeks of consolidation. But if USD/JPY is not as offered as it has been so far this week and if the US housing data does pick up, EUR/USD might grind back to the 1.1680 area today. From the eurozone side, look out for some modest improvement in July consumer confidence.