Ether leads weekly gains among top 10 cryptocurrencies as Bitcoin flirts with $100,000

Cryptocurrency

Summary:

Ether led weekly crypto gains, rising 5.7% amid institutional inflows and smart money accumulation. The rally followed optimism around upgrades and market sentiment, as Bitcoin neared but failed to break $100,000.

Ether has outperformed Bitcoin BTC +3.43% and other top altcoins within the last seven days, according to The Block’s price page. The weekly timeframe showed ETH +10.75% was up about 5.7% by Thursday, more than any other cryptocurrency in the top 10 by market capitalization.

ETH’s ascent this week followed institutional demand since April. CoinShares reported two consecutive weeks of inflows to spot Ether exchange-traded funds. Speculators also suggested the Pectra upgrade activated on May 7 might have also bolstered prices, but Nansen Research Analyst Nicolai Sondergaard said otherwise.

“Many view the Pectra upgrade in a positive light, but I do not see how it will transform Ethereum immediately,” Sondergaard told The Block. “It will be a long-term process."

Instead, the Nansen expert proposed that technical factors and sentiment drove Ether’s recent surge. “I think lots of people still see ETH as somewhat cheap, and some charts have been going around, showing that ETH is ready for a breakout.”

Analyzing smart money

Sondergaard mentioned accumulation by “smart money” as another factor. Smart money means institutional investors and other large entities with substantial capital and deep market insight. The Nansen analyst said data showed firms like Wintermute buying ETH, likely for market-making returns.

“Smart money has also been accumulating some (even if many smart money holders are also dumping). Wintermute specifically acquired a lot these past 24 hours, maybe just to take advantage of increased interest and earning good fees from market making," Sondergaard said.

Lookonchain flagged similar activity. London-based Abraxas Capital withdrew 41,269 ETH worth over $75 million from Binance and Kraken since late Wednesday, per the onchain smart money tracker.

Zooming out, ETH was still below its March lows and 59% off its all-time high of $4,878. The ETH/BTC chart also remained at a five-year low since early April, according to TradingView. Per IntoTheBlock data, 65.5 million addresses holding ETH — nearly half of all global Ethereum wallets — sat in losses or were out-of-the-money.

Market rally

Ether's price leap was part of a broad crypto rally this week after U.S.-China trade negotiations put markets back into "risk on" mode. Despite the Federal Reserve's holding pattern on funding rates, the digital asset sector increased over 3% on May 8 and recovered to $3.2 trillion. Bitcoin touched $100,000 several times on Thursday but retreated afterwards, likely due to resistance at that level.

Ryan Lee, chief analyst at Bitget Research, said BTC may require a more favorable macro environment to flip the resistance at $100,000 into support. "A clear break above this psychological barrier could hinge on consistent economic signals favoring policy easing," Lee noted.

Wincent Senior Director Paul Howard remarked that more positive news from the U.S. would push Bitcoin higher and benefit cryptocurrencies in general.

"Overall, we are seeing a net positive shift in risk assets, with Bitcoin advancing 2.7% over the past 24 hours," Howard shared in a note to The Block. "The market now anticipates a potential follow-through later this year, whether in the form of rate cuts or broader macroeconomic stimulus."

source : theblock

Risk Warnings and Disclaimers

You understand and acknowledge that there is a high degree of risk involved in trading. Following any strategies or investment methods may lead to potential losses. The content on the site is provided by our contributors and analysts for information purposes only. You are solely responsible for determining whether any trading assets, securities, strategy, or any other product is suitable for investing based on your own investment objectives and financial situation.

Add to Favorites

Diana Wallace

Economic

The number of Americans filing new applications for unemployment benefits fell sharply last week as the spring break-related boost from the prior week faded, suggesting the labor market continued to chug along, though risks are mounting from tariffs.

Employers are hoarding workers after difficulties finding labor during and after the COVID-19 pandemic. But that could become tougher to maintain as other data from the Labor Department on Thursday showed worker productivity declining for the first time in nearly three years in the first quarter, boosting labor costs.

The weakness in productivity, if sustained, could pressure margins for businesses at a time when they are facing higher costs from President Donald Trump's sweeping import duties.

"Companies in the face of trade war uncertainty are holding onto their workers for now," said Christopher Rupkey, chief economist at FWDBONDS. "The million-dollar question is, how long can companies tough it out as first-quarter productivity statistics show unit labor costs soared?"

Initial claims for state unemployment benefits dropped 13,000 to a seasonally adjusted 228,000 for the week ended May 3. Economists polled by Reuters had forecast 230,000 claims for the latest week. The decline unwound some of the boost from school spring breaks in New York state, which had lifted claims to a two-month high.

Unadjusted claims for New York tumbled 15,089 last week. They had soared 15,418 in the prior week, attributed to layoffs in the transportation and warehousing, accommodation and food services as well as public administration and educational services industries. There were also significant decreases in claims in Massachusetts and New Jersey.

But filings vaulted 6,906 in Michigan, potentially hinting at layoffs in the automobile industry amid duties on motor vehicles and parts. General Motors (GM.N), opens new tab and Ford Motor (F.N), opens new tab have pulled their annual forecasts. General Motors said it expected a $4-$5 billion tariff hit on profits, while Ford estimated the drag at $1.5 billion.

A separate program for unemployment compensation for federal employees (UCFE), which is reported with a one-week lag, still showed little impact of the mass firings of public workers, part of the Trump administration's unprecedented campaign to drastically shrink the federal government.

Many workers have taken severance packages, which will run out in September, while others have been put on paid leave after courts ordered their reinstatement.

Trump's tariffs, including hiking duties on Chinese imports to 145%, have soured business and consumer sentiment, heightening economic uncertainty. Trump sees the tariffs as a tool to raise revenue to offset his promised tax cuts and to revive a long-declining U.S. industrial base.

Economists say it is only a matter of time before the weakness in business and consumer surveys spills over to so-called hard data like claims, inflation and employment reports.

The Federal Reserve on Wednesday kept its benchmark overnight interest rate in the 4.25%-4.50% range, with policymakers at the U.S. central bank noting that "the risks of higher unemployment and higher inflation have risen."

Fed Chair Jerome Powell told reporters "the tariff increases announced so far have been significantly larger than anticipated," adding "if sustained, they're likely to generate a rise in inflation, a slowdown in economic growth and an increase in unemployment."

The dollar rose against a basket of currencies. U.S. stocks opened higher.

A column chart titled "US unemployment claims" that tracks the metric over a recent period.

Worker hoarding accounts for most of the labor market's resilience. Some companies more exposed to the trade tensions have started laying off workers, though on a small scale.

An Institute for Supply Management survey last week showed manufacturing employment remained depressed in April, noting that "layoffs were the primary tools used, an indication that head-count reduction is becoming more urgent."

Rising economic uncertainty has added to companies' hesitancy to hire more workers, leaving those who lose their jobs experiencing long bouts of unemployment.

The number of people receiving benefits after an initial week of aid, a proxy for hiring, decreased 29,000 to a seasonally adjusted 1.879 million during the week ending April 26, the claims report showed.

The unemployment rate was unchanged at 4.2% in April, but the median duration of joblessness jumped to 10.4 weeks from 9.8 weeks in March. The economy added 177,000 jobs in April.

In a separate report, the Labor Department's Bureau of Labor Statistics said nonfarm productivity, which measures hourly output per worker, fell at a 0.8% annualized rate in the first quarter. That was the first decline since the second quarter of 2022 and followed a 1.7% growth pace in the October-December quarter. Productivity grew at a 1.4% rate from a year ago.

The quarterly drop in productivity was flagged by the government's advance gross domestic product report for the first quarter published last week, which showed the economy contracting at a 0.3% rate, the first decline in three years.

The economy was swamped by a flood of imports as businesses rushed to bring in goods before tariffs kicked in.

Unit labor costs - the price of labor per single unit of output - jumped at a 5.7% rate in the first quarter after rising at a 2.0% rate in the October-December period. Labor costs increased at a 1.3% rate from a year ago.

"The drop in worker productivity likely increases caution from firms to invest or expand operations this year, especially given the elevated uncertainty surrounding tariffs and supply chains," said Ben Ayers, senior economist at Nationwide.

Source: Reuters

To stay updated on all economic events of today, please check out our Economic calendar

Risk Warnings and Disclaimers

Add to Favorites

Adam

Bond

US Treasury yields rose on Thursday as traders pared bets on interest-rate cuts from the Federal Reserve after Chair Jerome Powell said he won’t be rushed into lowering borrowing costs.

The policy-sensitive two-year rate climbed four basis points to 3.82%, narrowing the gap with its 10-year peer to 48 basis points, near the smallest level in a month. S&P 500 futures rose as President Donald Trump said the US has secured what he described as a comprehensive trade agreement with the UK, marking the first of his promised deals with countries around the world.

Treasuries initially gained following the Fed decision Wednesday, after policymakers warned that trade-related uncertainty could lead to stagflation. But on Thursday, attention turned to Powell’s emphasis on holding rates steady until there is more certainty on the direction of trade policy. A drop in the weekly tally of new jobless claims supported Powell’s obervation that the labor market remains resilient amid the trade uncertainties.

“The Fed is firmly non-committal about the path forward,” said Susan Hill, a senior portfolio manager at Federated Hermes in Pittsburgh. “It’s appropriate to still be looking at maybe the third quarter before we see action from the Fed.”

Fed officials voted unanimously to keep the benchmark federal funds rate in a range of 4.25% to 4.5%, where it has been since December. Swaps priced in a 16% chance of a quarter-point rate cut at the next meeting in June, compared to about 30% on Tuesday and more than 50% a week ago. Markets continued to bet on three reductions this year, which would bring rates to a range of 3.5% to 3.75%.

In a statement, policymakers said they see a growing risk of both higher inflation and rising unemployment. Trump’s trade policy has unleashed a wave of uncertainty across the economy. While the levies are still being negotiated, economists widely expect the expansive tariffs to boost inflation and weigh on growth.

“The idea of preemptive cuts is not on the table, which means they may end up being a little bit late to whatever happens,” said David Rogal, portfolio manager, fundamental fixed income group at BlackRock. “There’s just a lot of uncertainty in both directions.”

Trump criticized the Fed’s policy stance again on Thursday, saying there’s virtually no inflation in the US and that Powell “doesn’t have a clue.” The president has been calling for the central bank to lower interest rates to boost the economy, and has even suggested he could remove the Fed Chair before the end of his term.

“Powell definitely gave a whiff of sort of stagflationary risks, but because of the political noise around it at the moment, he was very careful not to say anything inflammatory,” said Neil Sutherland, portfolio manager at Schroder Investment Management. “It’s really difficult for them to make a big call one way or the other.”

Pimco’s Chief Investment Officer Dan Ivascyn said in an interview with the Financial Times that the probability of a US economic recession is the highest it’s been in a few years. The firm has made small increases to its US Treasury holdings over the previous two months, focusing on short maturities.

“With the outlook clouded by tariff uncertainty, we expect the Fed to maintain a wait-and-see approach, seeking greater economic and policy clarity before making any major policy moves,” said Mark Haefele, chief investment officer at UBS Global Wealth Management. He forecasts 100 basis points of rate cuts from the Fed starting in September.

Source: finance.yahoo

Risk Warnings and Disclaimers

Add to Favorites

Thomas

Economic

While commenting to reporters after signing the first (of many) trade deal with the UK, President Trump told Americans that they "better go buy stocks now."

And they did...

This comment followed his now ubiquitous shot across The Fed's bow:

*TRUMP: FED'S POWELL IS ALWAYS LATE
*TRUMP: EVERYONE IS CUTTING BUT THE FED
*TRUMP: IF POWELL WOULD LOWER RATES, IT WOULD BE LIKE JET FUEL
*TRUMP: US DOING WELL EVEN WITHOUT FED CUT

The market has now erased all of the post-Livberation Day losses.

Source: Zero Hedge

To stay updated on all economic events of today, please check out our Economic calendar

Risk Warnings and Disclaimers

Add to Favorites

Catherine Richards

Economic

U.S. wholesale inventories increased slightly less than initially estimated in March amid decreases in the stocks of electrical, lumber, apparel and farm products.

Stocks at wholesalers rose 0.4%, revised down from the 0.5% gain estimated last month, the Commerce Department's Census Bureau said on Thursday. Economists polled by Reuters had expected the rise in inventories would be unrevised.

Inventories, a key part of gross domestic product, advanced 0.5% in February. They rose 2.2% on a year-on-year basis in March. Businesses front-loaded imports in the first quarter, seeking to avoid President Donald Trump's sweeping duties on foreign goods, resulting in a large trade deficit.

Most of the imports ended up as inventory.

The government's advance gross domestic product estimate for first quarter published last week estimated that business inventories increased at a $140.1 billion annualized rate after rising at only a $8.9 billion pace in the October-December quarter. Inventories added 2.25 percentage points to GDP, the most since the fourth quarter of 2021.

That was, however, insufficient to offset the drag from the trade gap. Trade sliced off a record 4.83 percentage points from GDP, resulting in the economy contracting at a 0.3% rate, the first decline in three years. The economy grew at a 2.4% pace in the fourth quarter.

Sales at wholesalers increased 0.6% in March after rising 2.0% in February. At March's sales pace it would take wholesalers 1.30 months to clear shelves, unchanged from in February.

Source: Yahoo Finance

To stay updated on all economic events of today, please check out our Economic calendar

Risk Warnings and Disclaimers

Add to Favorites

Adam

Commodity

Gold and silver futures prices are lower in early U.S. trading Thursday, on some more profit-taking following gains scored earlier this week. Improved trader/investor risk appetite in the general marketplace late this week is also bearish for the safe-haven metals. A firmer U.S. dollar index today is a negative outside market for the metals. June gold was last down $40.40 at $3,351.50. July silver prices were last down $0.216 at $32.575.

Asian and European stock markets were mostly firmer in overnight trading. U.S. stock indexes are pointed to solidly higher openings today in New York. Risk appetite is keener today following news that President Donald Trump announced a "big news conference" Friday morning. He said the news conference entails a "major trade deal with representatives of a big, and highly respected, country." Reports say that country is the United Kingdom. Trump added the action will be “THE FIRST OF MANY!!!” However, the specifics of such a deal remain unclear and the broader context suggests ongoing ambiguity and shifting rhetoric from the Trump administration regarding trade agreements. Meantime, the U.S. and China will hold trade talks over the weekend in Switzerland.

In other overnight news, the Bank of England cut its main interest rate by 0.25%. The move was widely expected.

The key outside markets today see the U.S. dollar index higher. Nymex crude oil futures prices are higher and trading around $59.00 a barrel. The yield on the benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury note is presently at 4.308%.

U.S. economic data due for release Thursday includes the weekly jobless claims report, preliminary productivity and costs, monthly wholesale trade and the monthly retail chain store sales index.

Gold price down on profit-taking, better risk appetite_1

Technically, June gold futures bulls have the overall near-term technical advantage. Bulls’ next upside price objective is to produce a close above solid resistance at this week’s high of $3,448.20. Bears' next near-term downside price objective is pushing futures prices below solid technical support at last week’s low of $3,209.40. First resistance is seen at $3,400.00 and then at the overnight high of $3,422.00. First support is seen at the overnight low of $3,325.40 and then at $3,300.00. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 7.0.

Gold price down on profit-taking, better risk appetite_2

July silver futures bulls have the slight overall near-term technical advantage. Silver bulls' next upside price objective is closing prices above solid technical resistance at $34.015. The next downside price objective for the bears is closing prices below solid support at $31.00. First resistance is seen at the overnight high of $33.095 and then at this week’s high of $33.48. Next support is seen at the overnight low of $32.37 and then at $32.00. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 5.5.

Source: kitco

Risk Warnings and Disclaimers

Add to Favorites

Warren Takunda

Economic

The British Pound rallied against the Euro, Dollar, and other currencies after the Bank of England cut interest rates by 25 basis points and reaffirmed its commitment to a cautious stance when considering future interest rate cuts.

The decision to cut 25bp comes amid speculation that the Bank might have accelerated the pace at which it lowers rates by cutting by 50bp.

Indeed, two members of the Monetary Policy Committee did vote for a 50bp move.

However, two others voted to keep interest rates unchanged, confirming that there is still strong resistance to accelerating the speed at which further cuts are delivered.

Also, the Bank reaffirmed that due to the medium-term outlook for inflation, "a gradual and careful approach to the further withdrawal of monetary policy restraint remains appropriate."

Some economists had expected the line to be jettisoned in order for the Bank to prepare markets for a June rate cut. Keeping it reads as a central bank that will stick with a quarterly pace of cuts owing to the significant uncertainties facing the economy and inflation.

The decision and guidance were more 'hawkish' than expected, meaning the Bank has opted to maintain a higher-for-longer interest rate profile. The de facto FX reaction to such hawkish surprises is a strengthening of the Pound:

The Pound to Euro exchange rate rose 0.40% in the 15-minute window following the initial decision to 1.1788. The Pound to Dollar exchange rate rose by a similar margin to 1.3312.

"The GBP outperformed as the BoE reiterated a gradual approach to its easing cycle and 2 MPC members voted in favour of leaving rates unchanged. Expectations of an imminent UK/US trade deal also supported the pound overnight," says Luis Hertado, an analyst at CIBC Capital Markets.

The Bank's forecasts released in the Monetary Policy Report underline the challenges facing the Bank as it now predicts inflation to peak at 3.7% in September, up from February's anticipated peak of 3.5%.

However, the Bank still seems convinced it will win the war against inflation as its projections show inflation will then dip to 1.9% by the second quarter of 2027.

The Bank argues that this medium-term projection is consistent with it meeting its mandate and provides the cover to cut interest rates.

The medium-term inflation forecasts were lowered owing to a slightly greater expected margin of economic slack and a weaker contribution from import price pass-through (due in part to a stronger sterling and lower global trade price pressures). Pound Sterling Rises Against Euro and Dollar as Bank of England Hawks Hold the Line_1

Pound Sterling Rises Against Euro and Dollar as Bank of England Hawks Hold the Line_1

Above: GBP/EUR at 15-minute intervals.

The Pound's rally following the decision shows "the market was coming into this meeting rather dovish, with some anticipation that tariffs will drive the BoE towards a faster pace of cuts," explains Hurtado. "This is not seen to be the case with some volatility in GBP/USD on the initial sticker shock of the voting composition showing more discord and higher tails."

What will matter for the UK currency going forward is the evolution of global investor sentiment, where hopes for trade deals have quelled market volatility and allowed the GBP to recover against the Euro and safe-haven currencies since an early April slump.

The other driver will be how upcoming UK data releases - inflation in particular - influence expectations for future Bank of England interest rates. Pound Sterling Rises Against Euro and Dollar as Bank of England Hawks Hold the Line_2

Pound Sterling Rises Against Euro and Dollar as Bank of England Hawks Hold the Line_2

Above: The Bank of England's inflation forecast.

Following today's decision, economists at DNB Bank say there will be just one more cut from the Bank in August, after which it will pause. This would represent a 'hawkish' profile for UK interest rates and ongoing GBP gains.

However, Simon Dangoor, Head of Fixed Income Macro Strategies at Goldman Sachs Asset Management, says there's a risk that the Bank could accelerate its easing pace, "potentially reaching a 3% terminal rate if economic headwinds intensify and inflation proves less persistent than feared.”

Such an outcome would, on balance, weigh on the Pound.

However, today's decision shows this is a cautious MPC with a diverse set of views on show, which ultimately reflects the domestic and global uncertainties that abound. This diversity and robust decision-making will bolster the Bank's credibility and offer UK financial markets and the economy some welcome certainty.